welcome back to "morning joe" at java joe's. >> thank you! [ applause ] >> thank you guys so much for being with us. mike, what did you learn today? >> i learned that mitt romney is loose enough to go all nine innings in this game. never seen him looser. >> mitt romney looks better than you, you, you, certainly you or me at our prime. he looks better at 60 whatever he is than when we were 20. >> good suck-up. >> look how good willie looks. i learned from mitt romney he is not the candidate of the 1% and he recents being called that. >> a five-term congressman from iowa is still undecided it's

going to be an exciting night. >> it is going to be an exciting night, exciting day ahead. stick around. willy, if it's way too early, what time is it? >> it's "morning joe." we'll see you tomorrow morning right here at java joe's. stick around for "the daily rundown" with chuck. there it is, that great music. we're off to the races, actual voting in the 2012 presidential election starts today right here in iowa. they're actually going to go to actual caucuses and cast real ballots. how many candidates will leave the state with momentum and how many candidates will actually just leave the race. playing expectations, did romney guarantee a win yesterday? did gingrich guarantee a loss in a state where beating expectations can be almost as important as the actual victory? campaigns try to manage the story before the first vote is cast. what should we expect tonight? the big question is turnout. who does a big crowd help? who hopes it's just the

diehards? and how many independents and democrats are going to show up? it's tuesday, january 3rd, caucus day. this is where they'll actually do the tabulations. the big board behind me is where we'll see the results as they trickle in. let's get to my first reads of the morning. tonight at 7:00 in iowa, 8:00 eastern, republicans will gather at schools, libraries, churches and some private homes in 1,174 precincts to caucus. tonight's contest is a coin flip between mitt romney and rick santorum in a republican presidential contest that's been marked by such volatility, could romney, steady in the poll but with less than a quarter of the iowans behind him pull out a win. he raised those expectations last night. >> you guys, i need you tomorrow night. i need every single vote in this room. i need you to get a couple of other votes from your neighborhood and get to the caucus. i need a great showing here at cedar rapids. we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and

strength. >> after the rally, romney's campaign tried to downplay those remarks. they told reporters the candidate simply meant he would win the nomination, not necessarily in iowa. meanwhile, rick santorum is making his closing toorgstatemeo iowa's value voters. >> first they said he couldn't win. now they're saying, well, he may do well but doesn't have what it takes to do well at the next stop or the next stop. what i would say to all iowans, number one, lead. and number two, do not settle for less than what america needs to transform this country. >> in a highly emotional moment last night, santorum answered a question about his family's decision to take their baby son, gabriel's body home from the hospital after he died hours after being born prematurely. >> we brought gabriel home with us to bury him.

and have the funeral there and subsequently bury him. we brought him home so our children could see him. to some who don't recognize the dignity of all human life, recognizing the humanity of your son is somehow weird, somehow odd and should be subject to ridicule. >> santorum's wife, karen, teared up as he spoke during that moment. now, as mitt romney was raising expectations for tonight, newt gingrich was lowering them with his own version of the washington gaffe, saying what he likely believes to be true. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> well, gingrich tried to take back those comments at another stop in davenport. >> i got chewed out a little bit by one of our precinct captains who said to me i should not

under any circumstance expect to do anything except potentially win tomorrow night. we may pull off one of the great upsets in the history of the iowa caucuses. >> whatever happens tonight, newt made it clear what tomorrow is going to look like. he plans to unleash an attack on mitt romney and not let up. in fact moments ago on cbs, gingrich said romney has been lying during the campaign and will lie if he's elected. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you're calling mitt romney a liar? >> well, you seem shocked by it. yes. i just think he ought to be honest with the american people and try to win as the real mitt romney, not try to invent a poll-driven, consultant-guided version that goes around with talking points. i think he ought to be candid. >> well, for those of you who are political junky historians, a little bit of that bob dole stop line about my record on

george h.w. bush back in '88 when he was bitter i think we're seeing with newt the potential of pulling a full bull worth. finally, has ron paul hit a ceiling? he made a final push with his son, rand paul. >> we may well send a message that is going to be heard not just throughout iowa but throughout this country and, believe it or not, it could be heard throughout the world. >> but given that it is get out to vote time, these comments were not exactly a typical way to energize supporters. >> when you lay your head down on the pillow at night, do you see yourself in the oval office? >> not really, but i think it's a possibility. sometimes i kid about it. i said that's a risk i take. >> all right. so newt is going to lose, ron paul, not really. anyway, at the end of the night it's really all going to come down to the one thing that we always talk about in elections, turnout. in 2008 the iowa entrance polls

showed that romney actually won among those that showed up to the caucuses caring about experience and electability but he lost on values. of course he lost by double digits to mike huckabee because 80% of republicans came thinking about values first, not thinking about electability and making political calculations. will turnout be similar to four years ago, when a record 120,000 participants showed up on the republican side, 60% of whom were self-described evangelicals. that's what we don't know. who shows up and what is their motivation for showing up. the unpredictability in iowa underscores the fluidity of the republican race overall. according to gallup there have been four different front runners, seven different lead changes. rick perry, herman cain and newt gingrich have all held the lead at some time. voters keep coming back to mitt romney. will that be the story of iowa

as well? joining me now, the governor of iowa himself, terry bran stead and ann selzer. governor, let me start with you. iowa republicans, are they winnowing the field or picking the president? >> there's a tremendous amount of interest, the turnouts. i think romney says this is the biggest crowds he's ever had. santorum is seeing a swelling in the size of his crowds. he's going about it the right way, going to all 99 counties, building an organization, made a good impression. now we're going to see who has the -- and also let's not discount governor rick perry. i think at the end here he's put an organization together. he's going to make a real effort at turnout too, so this is a wide-open race. >> on "meet the press" about a month ago, you flat-out said mitt romney has not done enough in iowa and needs to do more. has he done enough?

>> well, he has certainly gotten the message and has aggressively campaigned here recently. he'll be here tonight. he's had a bus tour of the state. he's got a headquarters open. he's got a lot of people working hard for him. but so do the other candidates. so it's a wide-open race. i think we'll have a record turnout on the republican caucuses tonight. >> it's funny you say this. ann, you and i were talking about this before the cameras came on and i've heard this from a lot of republican officials that you do believe turnout is going to be up. but i have to say i don't feel it. you're polling didn't indicate the same thing. you sort of can tell when turnout is going to be up. what's going on here? it feels like we are getting mixed messages because there's anecdotal about up registration, the straw poll turnout are up. what do you think? >> polls are a blunt instrument for measuring candidate preference let alone turnout. the one thing we saw four years ago was a strong number of first-time caucus attenders. we see about the normal number

of first-time caucus goers. i have really -- it's very hard to predict turnout because so much happens in these final two days. >> when you were seeing the surge, it was interesting. you broke out and i wonder how comfortable you were doing that as a pollster, that you broke out one-half of the poll. here it is overall but i've got to show you these last two days and obviously it shows you how quickly that moves. have you ever seen a movement like that that fast in the last week of the caucuses? >> no. and the charts that you see showing the change in the four days of polling is a little insight into the secret life of a pollster. while we're in the field and can't talk about what we're seeing, but my gosh, we see a precipitous fall for ron paul who was leading really unopposed our first day of polling, had dropped to third place. rick santorum doubling his support in the last two days. at the end, the four days' average we think tells less of the story than the momentum and the change in the race. >> all right. mitt romney had 25% january 3rd,

2008. first des moines register poll he was 24%. nbc, 23%. last des moines register pole 24%. >> he went to 16 in between and has come back. >> but why do you think there has been this hesitanace. >> i think people know there's a lot at stake. attacking the very people -- private sector entrepreneurs who need to invest and create jobs so they want to choose the right leader but they have been looking for the perfect candidate. as they look the candidates over, they hear good things about them, then they hear bad things about them and they're sorting it out inside. who do i think in the end is going to be the best. i think a lot of people have come back to say, well, maybe romney is the guy that can get the job done, but there's also a lot of people that have been really impressed with santorum and some of the other candidates as well. so -- and there's still a lot of undecideds there.

people can change their mind. tonight is depends upon who's the most persuasive, who's got the best spokes people there. it's very fluid. >> are you going to caucus? >> i am. i'm going to be at the middle school in boone, rural district. it's rural precinct 4, boone county and it's a secret ballot. >> you're not going to say? >> no. >> how much of this race reminds you of '96, dole, when right at the end buchanan came out of nowhere? >> well, they're all different. this time debates have had more to do with it, social media has more of an impact. but i see a real strong interest here. my goal is we launched obama, we want to sink obama in iowa. we want to win the general election here. i want to do all i can to bring this party together and win this election. >> ann, when it came to watching where newt and perry were, which one was moving and which one was stalled? >> well, newt had led in our previous poll and so he really came down quite a bit. >> but over the four days, i guess, where was the trend

lines? >> they were both pretty flat. you would look at it and say normal variation just from day to day so no real movement up or down. >> you don't feel like you were catching a snapshot where somebody was doing this or this. >> not from those two or michele bachmann. >> how much does he need those candidates to fall? >> i think he has gained more because of newt gingrich's fall. perry has pretty stable. >> how many folks are showing up. you think high, you think average. we'll see. >> we'll see. >> tonight we'll find out. >> she's the best pollster, no doubt about that. predicting turnout is a much more difficult thing to do. >> it's hard. governor, it's been a pleasure. talking to you all year long, we won't forget you, i promise, tomorrow. >> good to see you. >> thank you both. the republican race will be reshaped by what happens here in iowa today. but this is just the beginning. it's the start, not the finish. are we looking at a sprint or a

marathon? the one and only jonathan martin and jeff zellne will be here. where do we go from here not just in the month of january but all the way potentially to june, but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. he's back to work, back in washington. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" live from des moines. we'll be right back. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement, available only with liberty mutual auto insurance, if your car is totaled, we give you the money for a car one model year newer. to learn more, visit us today. responsibility. what's your policy?

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the candidates have been careful to point out that iowa is the beginning. sometimes us in the media we don't do that enough, but it is not the end of the process, it really is the beginning, so

where do we know from here, jeff, a political correspondent for "the new york times" and jonathan martin from politico. gentlemen, welcome to you both. i've got the ipad app here, we're messing around. first let's get to tonight in iowa. what's great is we have a front runner who ran four years ago so it is apples to apples with romney. frankly, mike huckabee -- rick santorum might be mini huckabee at this point. so in 2008 we have the county-by-county map here. what was interesting, jeff, is essentially iowa's coasts, if you will, the dubuque media market and the council bluffs -- the omaha media market won by mitt romney. basically the entire center of the state won by mike huckabee. explain why that was the case. >> it was the case actually because of -- governor romney sent a lot of time in both of those and the eastern part of iowa, dubuque to the quad cities

is a higher population region and generally more moderate republicans live on that side of iowa. on the other side of iowa, he won a lot of the conservative counties because he spent a lot of time and energy there. that was because of his organizing. mike huckabee didn't have the organizing strength there. but the big difference this time around, i look for a stronger performance from mitt romney in the center of iowa, here in des moines in polk county because there's not been this relentless barrage after tof attacks again by conservative radio hosts and others, so watch for a stronger performance in the center part of the state. >> with rick santorum, you might expect he could overperform with some catholic voters in eastern iowa, which there is a lot of catholics, particularly in the dubuque area. he has spent a lot of time essentially on iowa's coasts. >> and not only that, but in the small towns. all this summer and fall he was hitting these 99 counties and he was going to these small towns. so i think there's not a lot of votes in those places, but if you can put a lot of those together, that can really be

helpful. the places that i'm watching are northwest iowa. there's a trio of counties out there. woodber woodberry, lyon and sioux. watch santorum there. if he does find a win, it's going to be on the strength of those counties up there. >> let's move ahead and look forward. we have the iowa caucus results and let's move to new hampshire. mitt romney, 31. we expect him to do well. the question is what kind of -- if santorum comes out of here with some momentum, either first or really close second, what does that mean in new hampshire? he's going to do this one state at a time. >> i think it means that mitt romney, depending on how he finishes here, and really either way, he has to fight for new hampshire. he can't do the barack obama of four years ago and waltz in, not take any questions, have this front runner strategy. they know that new hampshire feels a little bit neglected because all of the focus has been on iowa. but it's an interesting situation now because he's also splitting his time with south carolina. but they know that they have to

hold on to their support in new hampshire, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where new hampshire is not kind to mitt romney. >> well, it's interesting. looking at these 2008 results, john mccain the moderate candidate, the almost virtual home state. mitt romney was getting some conservative vote and some of that next-door neighbor vote. huckabee only got 11. so you figure santorum can get the 11 of huckabee's. how much of what the former -- the conservative vote that was with romney last time that didn't go with him, wouldn't go with him this time. does he need 25 total, does he need to get to 30. what would be a, oh, wow, look at him, he's building momentum. >> that's the channel ellenge f santor santorum. you're going to have mum reget his votes from the center right and then you're going to have newt and santorum going after movement conservatives and there are conservatives in new hampshire, we know that. but are they movement conservatives who are passionate about issues like abortion,

those kinds of things. they are there, it's just not a huge universal vote. >> blue collar populism. >> but that didn't work well for huckabee. here's why santorum can do better, northeastern catholic. john mccain, this was his waterloo in 2000. it became essentially his crowning achievement in 2008. mitt romney almost wants to replicate that. look at these results from 2008. mccain won it with 33%. that's essentially the romney path here. he only got 15 last time so he needs half of mccain's numbers and hope that rick perry and newt gingrich somehow peel off enough to prevent rick santorum, a/k/a mini huckabee. >> and that's the challenge here. they hope they have a little life in them because it's better for them if they all stay in the

race, michele bachmann to rick perry. that's the real question for south carolina, will rick perry and michele bachmann still be in this race. >> if rick perry is a fifth place finisher, does he really go to south carolina? >> i think that's the big question, who claims the fourth place prize. fourth place is going to be critical. if it's rick perry, i think absolutely he has a rationalization for going forward to south carolina. if he comes in fifth, i think it's tougher. here's the thing. i think with newt either way, fourth or fifth -- >> he stays. >> he's going full bore. >> there are debates coming up. that's his jet fuel. >> friday and saturday. >> the movie "semi pro." fourth place. sorry. they're going to start yelling fourth place. >> the romney folks are loving rick perry. it's go, perry, go. it's a remarkable chamber of commerce. >> it is. jonathan, jeff, we have about ten more hours of talking about this and then we actually get people -- >> we can stay on the air if you want. >> i've got the music, though. it's like the oscars.

we've got to go. like father, like son, it's a family affair in iowa when it comes to the pauls. we caught up with senator rand paul as he hit the trail with his dad here in iowa. was this really the first trip of the 2016 paul campaign. first, today's trivia question. which was iowa's only presidential primary held? tweet me the answer, @chuck todd and @dailyrundown. the answer is coming up on this special edition of "the daily rundown." do you know? >> i don't, i don't. my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke, while it built up in my system. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these, stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away.

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in about an hour from now, congressman ron paul will wind down his iowa campaign attending a rock the caucus event at a west des moines high school. the congressman's son, senator rand paul of kentucky, was out

on the stump monday whipping up the crowds for his father. anthony terrell got the chance to sit down with senator paul. you know, thoanthony, my theory this is just the beginning of paul presidential campaigns that we may see over the next four and eight years. >> rand paul defended his dad's chances of being electable. many rivals say he is not electable. he defended against that in my interview with him yesterday. >> talking about a third party is a little premature when you're leading the field for the gop primary. so i think when you're leading and you have a chance of winning the gop nomination, it would be a little premature to talk about anything else. >> it's interesting to me, though, that he says premature. >> right. >> is this leverage that they're looking for with -- inside the republican party so they're not marginalized some. >> ron paul wants his message to be out there with whoever the eventual republican nominee is. rand paul says he has an

eventual path to the nomination because of their large pool of donors. he said they have hundreds of thousands of small donors who can give more than one. he compared his dad's campaign to that of president obama's in 2008. >> they have this caucus strategy. we know in february there's very few contests, two big primaries at the end of the month but there are a bunch of caucuses and romney hasn't been as good as organizationiing and santoru just starting. >> the campaign manager says they have 12 additional states they're organized in and are looking at caucus states because that's where their grass-roots supporters will come in and support ron paul. >> you were telling this to me off camera, you said rand paul has sort of rock star status. >> that's right. when rand paul comes up, he gets a huge standing ovation. he reminded me that his dad started the tea party in 2007 so he said that organization has come together. it helped him in 2010 and he

thinks it will help his dad in 2012. >> we're seeing that it seems to be a little bit of that tea party ground, hasn't he? >> that's right. rand paul dame out and said his dad is the one candidate the soldiers trust. these guys put their lives on the line, they're donating to his father more than double all the other candidates combined and they want rob paul to be the commander in chief. so he's defending his dad's foreign policy and anti-war stance and thinks voters are on his side. >> catching up with rand paul, not the easiest interview. good stuff. >> thank you. >> thank you for being on the trail. coming up, a familiar face. i got in trouble when i said an old friend. savannah guthrie will be here. she caught up with mitt romney on the campaign trail. hear his new attack on president obama and what he says about newt gingrich's anger. you're watching a special iowa caucus day, the superest of tuesday edition of "the daily rundown" live from des moines county convention center. we'll be right back.

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at the same time china and european nations have negotiated 44 such agreements. this has been a failed presidency. i will go to work to get americans back to work. >> we just dipped in live. that's mitt romney holding a rally here in des moines. he lost polk county four years ago. he doesn't want to lose it this time. the final push before tonight's caucuses. romney sat down on monday with my colleague and a very familiar face to this show, savannah guthrie, for a very wide-ranging interview. do we ever have narrow-ranging interviews? >> no. >> you know, you interviewed him as if he might be the nominee. >> yeah, we talked about this issue of experience because as you know he seems to be testing out these -- he is looking forward to the general election

in terms of really hitting president obama at every turn as opposed to his opponents. so i asked him about this issue of experience that he's been raising on the trail. >> it seems to me that the primary argument you make against him is that he lacked experience when he took office. in terms of national security experience, what would you cite to say that you are prepared to be commander in chief? >> from a foreign policy stand point, i have worked in multiple countries. i have been in scores of countries -- >> what about national security experience. >> let me continue. in addition i worked in the olympics. at the olympics i negotiated with people around the world. i have not led the department of defense. no one is commander in chief until they are commander in chief. president obama wasn't commander in chief until he had that experience. >> on the one hand you're saying president obama fails because he lacked experience. yet you acknowledge, okay, i don't have the exact national security experience required to be commander in chief but that's okay because i'll get it once

i'm on the job. >> president obama failed because he had never been a leader anywhere. he never led in the state senate. he never led in the u.s. senate. his lack of experience is not just a lack of experience in foreign policy, it's a lack of experience as a leader. >> he doesn't have a national security answer yet. i mean you could just hear david axelrod saying he's using the olympics as his foreign policy experience? >> he used the term foreign policy, i used the term national security. and as you say he doesn't exactly have appear answer for that yet. that's a hard argument for him to be making when he's asailing president obama as somebody who is a new be and didn't have the experience for the job. >> one thing we've learned about mitt romney is he's not afraid to talk about his opponents, especially the one that seems to -- the one he's gotten under

the skip of the most, mr. gingrich. >> yeah, he talked about newt gingrich and i asked him about all these ads. we all know here in iowa those attack ads from the third-party groups have been the undoing of newt gingrich. romney likes to say, look, legally i have no part of these. >> legally. >> but at the same time he isn't voicing his disapproval or disavowing them. take a look. >> former speaker gingrich coined a new term recently. he said he had been romney voted. that third party groups who are not connected to you in any legal way have run a barrage of ads against him here in iowa. do you approve of what they're doing? >> there's a lot of heat in the campaign kitchen. i know that the speaker is angry. i don't know why. but my anger will be focused on president obama's failures to put the american people back to work. >> one thing you said recently about santorum and also gingrich is they're career politicians. but some people say, mitt romney, he's been running for president for about the last five years or so. >> and i think the others that

you mentioned have been in politics 30 years or 40 years. there's five years versus 40 years. >> cold, calculated. >> it's so interesting because what he didn't do is dispute the premise that he's been running for five years straight. he just said, well, at least it's not 30 or 40 years. interesting. >> the personal side, he does t doesndoesn' doesndoesn' doesn't -- >> i talked to him. look, he really resists this notion that he's somehow an automoton and has trouble connecting. but at the same time you can see him struggling to do some of the shenanigans of the campaign trail. his sons do a really good job of humanizing. i asked them about one of the things i've this been saying about their father on the trail. >> who here calls him cheap? >> everybody. i think it's the kind of character we need in the white house right now to be honest.

the kind of guy who's knocking on my shower when i'm taking a ten-minute shower and saying it's time to get out. that's the kind of guy i want in the white house right now. >> it's funny, i asked mitt romney about this idea, is he cheap. and he said yeah. most people don't think that's a compliment. he said in my family it is. if i go to the gas station, i don't get super, i get regular, because super is unnecessary. >> but i have to say that whole family as a campaign entourage is very powerful. ann romney so warm and charming, those boys. he's the one that seems to be not ready to loosen up yet. >> yeah, they're very compelling, they're very warm. they adore their father. they really help show that other side to mitt romney. i've got to say tag romney, i think he's got some political skills himself. he might get into the family business. >> i'm a little upset with tag with the whole dodger business. >> i don't even know what that is. >> that's okay. savannah, stick around a second, i've got a little surprise. up next, our political panel

will be joining me in des moines. the nexus of the political universe. but first, it's what you've been waiting for. it's savannah's soup of the day, it's tuesday ckacan -- tuscan chicken. they haven't had soup in like three weeks because the president has been in hawaii. it's been tomato every other day. >> do they come up with a new name for it? >> yeah, pepper tomato. do they still play the chicken noodle song? >> we haven't played chicken noodle. they got a little tired of it. >> here you go, chicken noodle, iowa caucus doodle-do. >> a lot of people have noticed i'm losing my voice. >> we can't lose you, chuck, stay strong. >> he's got nothing. >> can i stay for the panel? >> you might as well. >> you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc live from

the polk county convention center right here in downtown des moines. we'll be right back. when you have tough pain, do you want fast relief? try bayer advanced aspirin. it has microparticles so it enters the bloodstream fast and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before. bayer advanced aspirin. when i lost weight in all the right places. you know what i mean! [ laughs ] when i tried to lose weight other ways, i felt hungry all the time. on weight watchers online, i eat all day long. i loved grabbing those activity points and throwing them into my tracker. and then it adds it up for you at the end of the week so that you can earn more points for food. i never thought that way before. i lost 38 pounds with weight watchers online. i really did it. [ laughs ] [ female announcer ] join for free today. weight watchers online. finally, losing weight clicks.

one of the better-looking domes, capitol domes that you'll find around the country. this is the polk county convention center in des moines, iowa. it's caucus day finally. been waiting for this day for three and a half years. anyway, newt gingrich unleashed a bob dole-style he's lying about my record attack on mitt romney this morning. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? yes. it's like his pretense that he's a conservative. here's a massachusetts moderate who has tax-paid abortions in romney care, puts planned parenthood in romney care, raises hundreds of millions of dollars of taxes on businesses, appoints liberal judges to

appease democrats and wants the rest of us to believe somehow he's magically a conservative. >> jackie kucinich is a political reporter and jennifer jacobs is the chief politics writer for the "des moines register." jennifer, i want to start with you. these attacks, four years ago mitt romney's attacks on -- newt gingrich was hoping to boomerang them and it hasn't boomeranged. >> no, it really hasn't. iowans always feel uncomfortable with these attacks. one of the reasons why they liked newt gingrich is because he really did stay clean. they respected him for that and they weren't kidding when they said we like that he hasn't been attacking other republicans. >> so what you're saying is this grumpier newt not good? >> not good. >> what's been interesting is mitt romney responded to these sort of newt complaints over the last few days. let me play to you what he said

to savannah on the "today" show this morning. >> i know the speaker is angry. i don't know why. but my anger is going to be focused on president obama's failures to put the american people back to work. >> i think he knows why. >> i think he knows why the speaker is angry. i think romney is smart to kind of try to rise above it. romney is in a position to win this caucus so he's in a place where he won the battle over gingrich. there was a two-week period where they were tied and romney has obliterated him with the super pac cell. >> newt has signalled when he goes to new hampshire i think we'll hear the words planned parenthood, taxpayer-funded abortions over and over and over again in new hampshire. newt looks like he wants to get a little pay back. >> it looks like the statute of limitations on that anti-negative campaign stopped at the iowa border. >> but that's something that maybe romney needs to worry about. if he's got newt out there, sort of the chief attack dog.

>> i wonder if he's too late to the game in new hampshire for romney. he's got really good roots there. negative ads, as much as everybody hates them, they do work. we'll see what happens with the debate coming up. there's a lot of factors out there. but i wonder -- and i don't know. i wonder if romney is too -- is too established in new hampshire for any of these attacks to really sink in. >> speaking of attacks, jennifer, the man of the moment, rick santorum, is starting to unveil the type of attacks he would take to mitt romney should the two of them end up face-to-face. first i want to play for you an interview he did this morning. rick santorum making it clear he wants to put health care on the table. >> the biggest issue in this campaign is going to be the size and scale of government and the biggest signature issue is health care. the signature issue is obama care and we have -- we cannot put up a presidential candidate who is in -- basically in the same place as barack obama on government-run health care. >> you know, what's interesting is health care in general,

everybody thought that was going to be a problem for mitt romney with conservative voters. i haven't heard it a lot in the iowa campaign. am i wrong? >> it does irritate some people, especially tea party people and there are some more mainstream republicans that it's a big issue for. what i'm hearing more this morning is people are more interested in hearing about rick santorum's record. i've been hearing a little nervousness from people saying do we really know this guy, whereas mitt romney they really know him. they knew him four years ago, they know him now. >> they went with cain, went with newt, went with perry, so they're getting a little nervous but they clearly want to go with somebody other than romney. >> not all of them. if they go with santorum, they want to make sure they know him. >> i was hearing the same thing yesterday. people saying -- people showing up at his events saying who is this guy. >> but very quickly i want to play this other hit that santorum has at the ready on mitt romney. here's whaetsd. -- what he said. >> one of my opponents, who's now directed his attention to me, surprisingly, has said that

he has executive experience. we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country, we're looking for a commander in chief. ceo is a sign, people who work for them. i can tell you as a senator, i did not work for the president. >> interesting there. a little hit on the business experience. also a little appeal to the populism. >> we're seeing a different phase of the campaign. for a while, santorum, gingrich, perry fighting with each other. now santorum focusing on romney, the person who has been winning the whole time. we'll see how santorum can do. >> still amazing we have not had a sustained attack on mitt romney. it's unbelievable. the three of you stick around. trivia time. we asked when was iowa's only presidential primary held? jennifer, you're the des moines register person. >> no idea. >> no idea? it was 1916. one attempt to change a primary voting system and it failed.

the state decided it was expensive, turnout was low so they went back to the caucus system. there you go, for all you folks about the caucus over the primary, it's about money. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. not in a million years. inspired by all who challenge the same old thing comes gain icy fresh fizz and other scents that are, like you, anything but ordinary.

bring back the panel, jackie kucinich, jennifer jacobs. the turnout, not just the makeup, but is it big? is it going break the record from four years ago or a traditional caucus turnout? what's your sense? >> depends what message iowans want to send. if we have social conservative, our most driven caucusgoers show up that will send one message. if more mainstream republicans, more moderate, want to send a message about the economy and jobs and what their issues are, most important issues, they'll turn out. depends what message they want to send. >> what have you seen on the ground, compared to four years

ago, that tells you anything about turnout, at least enough of an anecdote you're wondering which way is it going to go? >> i spent time with paul, there were a lot of people -- remember in '08, obama had nontraditional voters, independents, paul seemed to have hit that. if it's a huge turnout, that will help him because his supporters have gotten out in bigger numbers than you would have guessed. >> are you feeling energy or not? >> depends who you're with. talking about earlier, when you go to santorum's event, there's excitement but also right now a lot of like who is this guy? ron paul rallies it's something else entirely. voters are excited about ron paul who are going to vote for ron paul. with romney, there are a lot of people there. >> right. >> it depends where you are. >> some are casual, catch a glimpse of him because he might be president, are you caucus? i'm not sure. what many e-mails are you

getting about rerobocalls? >> hitting rick santorum on the second amendment issue which he denies. >> all right. shameless plug time. perry? >> my brother, don, a high school teacher in louisville, kentucky, they're discussing the caucus with his ninth grade a.p. class. good luck in explaining that to ninth graders. >> one of the harder things to explain. >> my colleague, susan paige, usa today, look forward after iowa. >> it's big. january. we've got a busy january coming up. jennifer, i saved you for last. >> i took this job in april, i'm a rookie at the whole politics job, i say thank you to iowa strategists who have helped me out and helped me learn this game. >> i tell you, you're following in big footsteps, the jeff selames of the world. you've done great. thank you all. what are we up to? ten more hours until we get hints. be careful of entrance polls,

first wave had mitt romney ahead. remember, mike huckabee won. be careful when you hear rumors about so-called entrance polls. tomorrow on the show, i'll have full analysis of a -- all of tonight's caucus results. i'll be in manchester. coming up, "chris jansing & company." 1:00, miss "andrea mitchell reports." enjoy super tuesday on msnbc. [ female announcer ] this is not a prescription. this is mary... who has a million things to pick up each month on top of her prescriptions.

so she was thrilled that her walgreens pharmacist recommended a 3-month supply and would always be there to answer questions about her health. now mary gets 3 refills in one and for 3 months, she's done. more or less. ask your pharmacist about a 90 day supply today. walgreens. there's a way to stay well.

good morning. i'm chris jansing. welcome to msnbc's first super tuesday coverage of the new year. finally, it's caucus day in iowa, after numerous twists and turns, hunches and counterpunches. >> game on for the candidates in iowa. >> i'm going to get rid of this one and