liar? >> well, you seem shocked. yes. >> it's decision day in iowa. things are definitely turned testy. >> is that the way to campaign? calling you a liar? >> how are you? good to see you. >> and we begin as the candidates make their final pitch. just five hours from casting the first votes in the 2012 campaign. today the appeals have more urgency than ever with a field as unsettled on voting day as it was at the very start of this race last year. leading in these final hours are former massachusetts governor mitt romney and congressman ron paul and former pennsylvania senator rick santorum.

romney has been campaigning for the last five years, he faces the same challenge as he did in 2008, winning over a conservative base that doesn't particularly like his moderate past. this time he said he is going to win it. >> you guys, i need you tomorrow night. i need every single vote in this room and i need you to get a couple of other votes and get to the caucus. a need a great showing. we will win this thing with all of the passion and strength. romney said he will finish in the top group. you know he probably won't? the former front-runner newt gingrich blaming a borage of a super pack. newt's serial adultery ranked hypocrisy and ethics violations have nothing to do with it. mr. blue bird on his shoulder, positive campaigner really only needs one word to describe mitt

romney. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. it's like the pretest that he is a conservative. here's a massachusetts moderate who has tax-paid a borings and puts planned parent hood in romney care and raises hundreds of millions in businesses and appoints liberal judges and wants the rest of us to believe he is magically a conservative. >> worry that positive talk, who needs a super pack. he said he will support romney if he is the nominee. >> the beauty of politics. newt's negativity may not help, it may boost the favorite rick santorum. he of the brushed wool sweater vest and the surging momentum. >> i think what i am telling you to do is pick the more conservative of the candidates. it's not the best of what you believe is the best. sometimes the best is not that great, but it's the best.

>> sometimes the best is not that great, but it's the best. all right. okay. rick, if you want to be president, you may need a course in ego 101 and it may be time to call newt gingrich the professor of ob lens, arrogance and pomps onity. we are kicking off in washington, mother jones bureau chief and news week and the daily beast and msnbc contributor jonathan cape hart. each with at least two credentials. hadn't they the most vicious political assassin out there accusing mitt romney of being a liar hours before iowans make their choice. he is say merciless attacker and he timed it perfectly. >> i don't think he timed it perfectly, but he timed it in a way that had very little impact

and he is done. he's toast in iowa. he had a great chance. this whole campaign has been about a default candidate, mitt romney and non-default candidates who had a chance and each time they completely imploded. they shot themselves in the foot. they lost their chance to take that one-night stand with the republican primary voters and turn it into a marriage. >> this is newt gingrich who said he was playing positive and would be a nice guy and break with the past. >> you didn't believe that. >> he delivered that crushing blow to mitt that resonates with voters given the fact that many people feel that mitt romney is untrust worth when it comes to principals. here you have newt gingrich saying the man is say liar. >> i thought we had been over this. you believe newt gingrich when he said he was going to be

positive. i would have bet more than $10,000 against that. he was doing what he's always done. going on the attack when it suits him. he's not raising any new points about mitt romney. republicans are going to have to swallow hard and adopt mitt romney as the bitter pill, the phony conservative because he is more credible than the real conservatives. >> what does that say. we have brand-new sound in of newt doubling down on calling mitt a liar. take a listen to what he said moments ago. >> do you characterize mitt romney as a liar? >> no, i was asked if he was lying and i said yes. >> why do you feel that way? >> because he doesn't tell the truth. >> you feel like i have told the truth the whole time this campaign? >> the comparative standard is pretty gigantic, yes. >> for once he may have a point

with him responsing are relentless attack ads, but the candidate claiming to be completely innocent and romney being did you policitous. >> of course they are going to go after newt. newt started to surge at a time when it was unnerving and people were talking about the only person who stood to challenge romney seriously in the first few primaries. of course they were going to go after newt with everything they had. they have got these super packs and all these funny ways to fund things that allow candidates to say the letter of the law said i can't possibly be in colosing with them. you get to split hairs and have semantic differences. i'm not sure we should take honesty differences. >> an individual has expressed

support for rick santorum saying he's the only candidate and i'm quoting mr. murdoch, the only candidate with a big vision for the country. isn't this the same rick santorum who said making same-sex marriage acceptable would open the door to man on child and man on dog relationships, the same one whose book, it takes a family who blames feminism for why women find fulfillment in the workplace. >> martin, this is also the same rick santorum who was spanked at the ballot box by 18 points. he lost to now senator bob casey and how someone with that record, that electoral record and all those things that you read, how that person thinks that they could go from maybe winning the iowa caucuses to becomes the republican nominee and then perhaps becoming president of the united states is beyond me. >> really?

you don't think that his confidence is based on the empirical evidence of recent polling that suggests who is surging? >> he is surging in iowa, but let's talk about the other states. this could be a great night for him. great. if he wins the caucuses, bask in the lime light. it will disappear the moment everywhere runs over to new hampshire and mitt romney will be back center stage where he has been despite the ups and downs of people bypassing him. mitt romney will be where he has always been. front-runner. >> do you agrey? do you think this is mitt romney's? >> i think it's mitt romney's because no one else has shown ability to sustain the non-romney momentum that they picked up. i think they will have at least three or four of the candidates continue on to new hampshire and south carolina which continue to divide up the extreme

conservative vote much to romney's advantage. none of these others have the money or even the intelligence to put forward a challenge. even though the electorate is yearning for such a challenge. >> the fact is that michele bachmann and rick perry have all said they booked their tickets to new hampshire, but in reality who will fallout? >> you will certainly have people who are just going to stick in this show they can. >> to sell books and perhaps secure a contract of fox news? >> to get the television show that they have been gunning for. he stuck it out so far and my vote for who might dropout is

rick perry the weather is not that bad this time of year. >> do you think they will go out this week or this group will keep going? >> i wouldn't be surprised if we saw at least person dropout, depending on how the results come in. >> romney, paul, and santorum are statistically tied. anything could happen and the entire field when you put in the margin of error, the field is basically tied. so i put my money on michele bachmann not lasting to new hampshire if things go the way they are. the rest i see staying in.

>> the final question to all of you. i wonder if you could give me a-word answer. who will win tonight starting with you? >> i will go with mitt. >> david. >> i think barack obama. >> seriously, i agree with michelle. it will probably come in first. ron paul will be close if he doesn't beat him. >> jon? >> i can make a call for mitt romney, paul and santorum. i'm dodging. >> good work. well done. >> the brains trust of our broadcast. thank you for joining us. >> we are just hours from caucus time and emotions are raw. stay with us. >> i don't know what you are talking to. i can't respond. >> these are members of your -- >> you got a name? you got a name? you got a name?

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>> it is now less than four hours before iowans gather to decide which republican will emerge ahead of the pack as the republican train moves towards new hampshire next week. some argue that these are not the best guide as to whos will collect to run against the president in november. then there is rick perry who sees this as a battle of the ages. this is omaha beach.

concord. he has a tough time listing that third example. host of the daily run down, weekdays at 9:00 a.m. eastern. i'm delighted to say chuck joins us now from des moines. hi, chuck. >> good afternoon. >> how are you? >> i'm good. >> what is the vibe at this hour. do things feel fluid with the out come truly in doubt because as you know better than anyone else in the universe, these polls are just not helping as far as who will win this season. >> the reason there is this feel of uncertainty in the air is the guy with the momentum has the least infrastructure and amount of organization and that's rick santorum. the big question over the heads of all of us that are watching

this is how well wire side santorum in each of the caucuses. martin, what's fascinating about how this works is you have to have somebody in every one of the caucuses speak on your behalf before the voting takes place. there a lot of times where you have campaigns and they won't have anybody at one of the places to speak on their behalf. it's harder to win a vote over in the room if you don't have that. that's the biggest question hanging over the heads of this campaign. it's clear that santorum has a ton of momentum, but does he have the infrastructure. >> does he have the people on the ground. by this time tomorrow, the results will be in. the candidates will be in new hampshire and one of those will be newt gingrich who i understand you will have on the daily run down in new hampshire tomorrow. what is it you hope to ask of

him tomorrow? where do you think he will be placed this time tomorrow afternoon? >> it does seem as if he stopped his free fall. when you talked to the campaigns that have the money to do polling and these voter id phone calls that happened over the last three days, it does feel as if in this battle for fourth between newt gingrich and rick perry, it's gingrich that sort of finally found a floor here and bottomed out where rick perry is seeing a little bit of erosion. i can you this, rick santorum is hoping for a lost erosion. the lower those two are, the better chance he has to coalesce and win. how important is it? it's hanging over the head of iowa republicans. how important is it to nominate the guy who has the best shot at winning versus the guy you feel more comfortable with personally when it comes to ideology.

rick santorum fits where the activists are much more so. probably the same is true in south carolina and even with the florida republican primary electorate. the question is how long does newt stretch this out? because the longer he could be helping mitt romney, if he sort of hangs around and keeps conservatives splintered. >> yes. let me play something said in 2010 about the case that allowed for limitless spending. listen to this. >> the case that they did there is an extraordinarily important case and historic landmark. >> he does speak quickly, but hasn't that supreme court position now come become to haunt him in the light of this tidal wave of spending from mitt romney's unconnected super packs? >> i have a satchel bag and they

save their direct mail pieces for me. i have a satchel filled with them and of the 30 mail pieces in there, 27 of them attacked newt gingrich and most of them are from this super pack. be careful what you wish for. it is fascinating to know that mitt romney four years ago had to say i'm mitt romney and i approve this message. when he went to attack mike huckabee. all of his ads can be positive. i never ran a negative ad once. that's a fact. it's true. his campaign did not. the super pack did and to allow this hands off nature, we are seeing the super packs pop up in house races and senate races. legislating where money should go and how to spend it, it's not easy when you have a supreme court that said money is the

equivalent of free speech. something has to be figured out. i have a lot of people who say can't we be like nascar? wear it on your jump suit or car. i think this secretiveinator of the groups is bothering a lot of people. i guess that's a great quote. i will play it for him tomorrow and see what he thinks today. >> we will be watching tomorrow. thanks again for joining us. no rest for chuck. tune in tomorrow morning at 9:00 eastern time for all the results and analysis on "the daily rundown" from the granite state. the dos and don'ts at caucus time when we come back. >> i hear you think you know something about iowa. [ bleep ] you heard we are a bunch of knee jerk reactionaries. i guess that's why we were democratic in the last five out

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. iowa has twet delegates at stake. zero delegates will be pledged tonight. victory and concession speeches aside. joining us to explain all of this is do mennico. >> how are you in. >> great to have you on. a lot of people may assume that if romney or paul or santorum wins, that person walk away with some or all of the delegates. the vote that happens in the caucus is more a super poll, isn't it? >> absolutely. they are not going to walk away with any delegates. that's why they are not being

penalized. it's a whole process. the rnc got everyone to go after it february 1st. what happens here is essentially a straw poll. 7:00 local. you have a caucus chairman and a secretary elected and people will turn in papers and folded over with who the candidate is. then you will have delegates who are elected to county conventions and from there you will have people who are then elected later on to be decided to who goes to the convention. none of this is about numbers that are hard and steadfast and locked into the candidates. what it is about is momentum. we talked about it over and over again. >> what are does being first get you in this contest? >> well, you have the -- it's a beauty contest and you have the ability to say i won here.

that's where it really gets you. you are able to say i won iowa and that gives some measure to donors and activists of who can actually be the person who could go long-term and get delegates. the romney campaign likes to talk about how to get this 1150 delegates that they have to win you see there is a treasure troph later on. let's try. rudy giuliani spent more than $50 million for one delegate after his strategy. >> the essential. thanks so much for joining us. stay with us on this busy caucus afternoon. iowa's top lines are coming up. >> i think a lot of people are going to be surprised. this new at&t 4g lte is fast.

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it's all about absorption. liar, liar, pants on fire. so professor newt with words of ire. here are today's top lines. >> we are going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength. >> i don't think i'm going to win. you look at the numbers and think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> i have no predictions. >> i got chewed out by of precinct captains who said i should not expect to do anything except potentially win. >> he said he has been romney voted. >> i don't know why. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you are calling mitt romney a liar. >> you seem shocked by it. yes. >> is that the way he goes? call you a liar? >> hi.

good to see you. >> you think you know something about iowa? [ bleep ]. >> it's a dangerous thing for many. >> it's person to person, heart to heart. iowan to iowan. >> you heard we are a bunch of knee jerk conservative reactionaries. that's why we went democratic in five out of the last six presidential elections. how do you like me now? >> we found the best person to lead the country. you will not only shock this country, but shock the world. the message throughout this country and believe it or not, it could be heard throughout the world. >> i ran a marathon before and i felt great at mile one. at mile 21, you hit the wall. >> that would be insulting shoe strings. >> when you lay down on the pillow, do you see yourself in the oval office? >> not really. >> let's get to it with our

panel. joining us from iowa. republican strategist and adviser to the iowa gop. with me here in new york, msnbc contributor, doug, you heard in top lines now, ron paul saying he can't see himself in the oval office. i guess this must be the first time we had a candidate running for president who doesn't at least dream of being in the white house. why is he running? is it to promote the legalization of heroin? >> my goodness, i hope that's not the case and i don't think it's the case. it's refreshing that even if i agree with ron paul from time to time, he gives honest answers and reactions, not even answers to questions and the fact that when he goes to bed at night, he doesn't dream of himself behind the desk of the oval office is a good thing. we have so much obsessed culture as it is. >> this is america where we dream great dreams. come on. are you telling me he hasn't

reflected as he slumbers on his pillow that he might day be in the white house? what's all this for otherwise? >> i tell you if there is one thing i won't do is project myself into ron paul's dreams. that is risky business. >> we have seen rick santorum crisis with this great surge and people who really think he might win tonight. is this the case of another one of these non-romney candidates rising and then clumping there after? >> that's exactly what it is. the key number that if you look at it really has a lot of explanatory power here. his favorables are the highest of any candidate. he never faced the scrutiny and never has been -- no one paid attention to him. he hasn't had the media bashing and it's frankly like musical chairs and the music stopped and rick santorum happens to be the one surging at the moment. >> someone like michele bachmann

is a much better fit for this particular electorate. a committed christian and a large family and served in the congress. why is she not doing better? >> frankly i think michele bachmann number one had her rise early and got punished, but i think that the fact that she is a woman has been very difficult for her to overcome. if you look at the statistics, democratic women are three times more likely than republican women to win their primary. that is still an issue there that we have to deal with. >> indeed. you are on the ground in iowa. >> please let me interject on that to talk about republicans winning primaries. last presidential cycle we have a qualified democrat running and her name was hillary clinton and she didn't win. we had two women who i don't think anybody who watches nbc were big fans are, but sharon engle and christine o'donnell. they were women and ran and won their primaries. let's not put it in sexist

terms. that's silly. it's not the reality on the ground in iowa. >> you are talking about anecdotes versus the statistics. democratic women win three times more often. we can debate why that's the case and i woulding is that a lot of the coverage of michele bachmann focussed on her make up and hair and clothing and there was that terrible front page cover photo of her with no make up on. there was a lot of questions about whether her headaches would pose a problem for the campaign. these things were very sexist whether there were directly sexist or under tones it doesn't matter. research shows it has an effect on a woman's. >> the same questions. >> don't forget one of your favorite people referred to her as a flake. that was hardly a fair and reasonable thing to say to the woman.

>> he is one of my favorite people, but every time hillary clinton changes a hairstyle, that takes away from that as well. if you want to talk about the reality of what's going on in iowa, had happens on both sides. >> you are on on the ground where rick perry put in a lot of work and seems as though he has been forgotten despite his attempts at retail politics. where did rick perry go wrong or is rick perry simply exposed as inadequate for this particular position? >> i think if we look at what really happens in iowa, iowa doesn't choose who the nominee is. iowa is where we widdle the process down. we will see who is standing after that. to talk about rick santorum, he visited every county in the state and practically lived

here. it's not really coincidental to me in the last hours of the process, somebody with a strong organization and looked voters in the ice time after time after time is doing well. the three campaigns that have the strongest organizations have been rick santorum, mitt romney and ron paul. guess who the top three have been. that's not a coincidence. that's how you win in iowa. >> what about turn out? there is suggestion that turn out this time is not as great as it was last time. >> we don't know and at the state party, they have not made any formal estimates and it's dangerous when you pick numbers. you create expectations that you may meet and may not meet. you don't want to make it as the candidate. >> he is one of the great candidates that can defeat barack obama. that's the key here. these candidates. >> stay with us.

we will be back in a moment. much more ahead. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you are calling mitt romney a liar. >> you seem shocked by it. yes. >> i know the speaker is angry. i don't know why. [ male announcer ] to the 5:00 a.m. scholar. the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu.

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will shift towards the granite state where they will hold the primary next tuesday. along here in new york. i wanted to ask you about the deluge of negative attack ads paid for by so-called unconnected super packs. what is your thought about the way this campaign has been waged there on the ground? >> it's been a great boom for the industry no doubt. >> it's not very good for newt gingrich though. >> no, certainly it had an impact on where he stands in the polls. it's up to candidates to win races and up to them to put the organization together to win the races and to weather the attacks. when you get as a candidate, when you get attacked, it's often whether you win or lose and outside if it comes from outside groups or campaigns, it's up to that campaign to respond and how to best proceed. >> isn't this a direct result of the citizens united decision?

poor newt gingrich praising this as a wonderful result and it has been damaging. >> one of the great ironies of this campaign as you pointed out. one of the last things i would have predicted for myself going into this. i would be feeling bad for newt gingrich. you can't look at this and the fact that he had millions of dollars in negative ads dropped on him without attribution where they are going after him and no one knows the candidate or the campaign that is really truly behind. it is damaging to our democracy and newt gingrich becomes an advocate. >> you wanted to make a comment about that? >> absolutely. as damaged where the candidacy is, before the democracy, can understand the battle place of the inside. >> it's not my ideology, it's cash. it's not the content of the

argument. >> a lack of transparency. >> it's up to campaigns and candidates to how they respond to the negative messages to move forward. president obama certainly did that well in the last campaign and we will see others do well or not based on how they respond. >> the complete lack of transparency and voters feeling cutoff for from this process and having no idea where the ads are coming from. i don't see how you can argue in the good for the democracies when you have elections being bought. >> all the focus is on iowa. that will shift and everyone will be looking to the primary. would you advise any of them say those who come third, fourth, fifth, would you advise them to get out of the way? >> that's a decision every candidate has to make for themselves. >> what are advice would you give? >> i wouldn't want to say what advice i would give a candidate. the candidate who is do the

best, who get the most momentum and understand the politics, sometimes you don't have to win to win will move forward and to south carolina, nevada and florida and other states. >> isn't newt gingrich set up for the revenge? there is a debate coming and he loves a debate and he is sharpening his weapons. >> she and i'm getting giddy for that next debate. you are exactly right. one person there may be a candidate or two who dropout. newt gingrich will not be one of them. he will stage his come back and this guy is not going away any time soon. >> on saturday and sunday. how do you think that debate is going to play out saturday and sunday in terms of newt's inclination? he will go for the full forearm smash? >> we never know. we have seen candidates who attack and threaten to attack and don't. what's important is those

candidates who were left and that's what we will see is how many people were left in the ring after this, how they best proceed and make the counter arguments and draw comparisons and contrasts with each other. the one who is do that the best will be in the best position. >> he can say i tried to stay above the fray, but this is going on too long and he can go for the kill. that's probably what we will see at the next phase. >> a lot on the floor. thanks so much for joining us. next, the big winner in iowa. president obama. first we have the cnbc market wrap. >> hi, martin and good afternoon. a good start to the trading year with u.s. equities climbing higher. here's a look at how stocks are doing. 14 minutes left and the dow hitting a-month high. the nasdaq was up above 12% and a lot of strength in semiconductor stocks. chips expected to rebound in

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there is another caucus today. this one for the democrats. we'll leave it to you to project the winner for that one. joining us now is nbc news white house correspondent kristen welker. good afternoon, kristen. >> reporter: good afternoon. >> and president obama's campaign is raising money. earlier today, the campaign released a video marking his victory in the iowa caucuses four years ago. tonight he has an online event with supporters in iowa. does this mean that he, too, has now started in full terms the re-election campaign? >> reporter: well, martin, his administration officials say that the president's not going to officially start campaigning until the republicans have chosen a nominee. but tonight is a clear example of the fact that he's not going

to sit on the sidelines either. as you mentioned, he's holding a live web chat with some of his supporters. he's going to be thanking them, getting them fired up for 2012. and if you look at what his re-election team has done in iowa, they're actually kicking their efforts into high gear. consider this, martin. they have opened eight offices so far. they've contacted about 350,000 people. they've held 1,200 grassroots events, including things like training sessions. so they're reallyicing their efforts into high gear and getting very serious about iowa, which is, of course, a key battleground state. martin? >> and he's just back from his hawaiian vacation with his family. and already i understand he's packing his bags again. so where's he off to next? >> well, you'll be quite surprised to know this, martin. he's going to big battleground state of ohio -- >> again. >> reporter: again. and this falls into this category of the administration saying that the president is not in re-election mode.

however, it's impossible to deny that visiting ohio, rather, will have political implications. when the president is there tomorrow, he will be talking about the economy and likely reiterating some similar themes that we heard during that speech that he gave in osawatomie, kansas, when he talked about the fact that it's really a make-or-break moment for the middle class. he's really trying to paint himself as a warrior for the middle class. the president's s ee's has been striking a bit of a populist tone, lately, martin, and i believe the administration thinks that it's really resonating with people. we've seen his approval ratings increase in the past month, so this is likely something that we'll continue to hear as the president will undoubtedly continue to visit states like ohio and other important battleground states. martin? >> kristen welker at the white house, thanks so much. >> thanks. and it's time now to clear the air. in this season of republican primaries, which begins with tonight's iowa caucuses, has on

occasions defied description. how can anyone explain herman cain's repeated denials, even as multiple women came forward alleging that he'd either slept with them or sexually harassed them? what words can one find to describe the incredible performance of newt gingrich, a man who clearly believes that america is suffering a form of collective amnesia, and somehow cannot remember any aspect of the former speaker's poisonous past. how is it possible to do justice to the thinly veiled racism that has reeked from so many of these candidates, from rick santorum to ron paul. it really is hard to find the words. and yet these primaries coincide with the 200th anniversary of the birth of one of the greatest wordsmiths that ever lived, the novelist charles dickens. so it's to dickens himself and words from his majestic novel, "a tale of two cities," that i will defer in an effort to describe this republican primary

season. "it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness. it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity. it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness. it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. we had everything before us, we had nothing before us." welcome to the republican primaries. thanks so much for watching. dylan ratigan's next. i'll see you tomorrow on the other side of iowa. on my journ, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer.

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well, good afternoon to you. i am dylan ratigan. happy new year to you. nice to see you. our big story, of course, the big story in the political world, anyway, today, is the bidding war that has begun. there is an auction tonight in iowa, my friends. in just four hours, 119,000 iowa republicans will gather at 1,700 firehouses, town halls, and school gyms to choose their candidate. tonight's caucuses are simple straw polls, but the process that got us here is anything but simple, as $16 million in ads from both candidates and their super pacs, that's about $134 spent on each iowa voter. it's also $4 million more than what gop candidates spent on iowa ads in 2008, when both parties were choosing a candidate. and in a much, in many ways, more hotly contested presidential election. all those super pacs are spending,