it is now 11:00 p.m. on the east coast, 10:00 p.m. in iowa where we are following what has turned out to be a two-man race between former pennsylvania senator rick santorum and former massachusetts governor mitt romney with 8% 8% of the vote reporting. mitt romney and rick santorum have 50% of the vote. ron paul projected by nbc news to be finishing in third place, he is at 21% of the vote. newt gingrich, 13%, rick perry,

10% and michele bachmann at 5%. let's go to chris matthews at the polk county convention center in des moines. >> rach, it looks like something could be developing which would be fascinating for the obama people and interesting for the republicans. the normal course of events is when you go on the attack against another opponent, for example, if gingrich is still part of this race coming in fourth tonight at a decent 13% after all that's happened, he goes out with a knife against romney this saturday night on the abc debate again and then on sunday morning with david gregory on "meet the press" in that debate and go after hammer and tongue all the issues of abortion, rip the scab off issue, if he does that who is the beneficiary? not newt. the beneficiary is santorum. and that's fascinating because that opens up the republican party like a cantaloupe then you have a situation where romney suffers from the fact that's been -- he'll be bleeding by then in the south on social

issues like abortion and health care, meanwhile, santorum will be getting the boost unintentionally perhaps of this attack on him by gingrich. this could be a three-way fight in which santorum holes his own longer than anyone would have expected, perhaps long enough to get some money to fight this thing right to the end and that could be the best thing that ever happens to barack obama because then one of these two candidates will reach the finish line either as a far right cultural conservative who can't win a general or a really bloodied up mitt romney. this is a fascinating potential if it goes the way i think it's going right now as of right now. rachel. >> chris, let me ask your opinion on what's about to happen next in the dynamics of the race, of course, we have iowa -- we have new hampshire next week and south carolina and the 21st, florida on the 3 9/. other thing that happens alongside them is the debate schedule starts up again. what really fueled the newt gingrich rise was newt gingrich's performance in the debates. rick santorum never got anywhere

in the debates even though he never really screwed up badly in them. how do you think the re-emergence of the debates will affect these three or more? >> this that way i think that romney will be the target for everybody. he'll be targeted by santorum and as a phony conservative and targeted by newt very personally because newt has to get revenge. he has to get his manhood back, if you will, that's been taken from him out in iowa. he will have to go after romney to save his own self-reputation, his own self-dignity. he's got to kill the guy politically in the debate saturday night. he will do that but it won't help him because he'll look like a mad dog but it will help santorum. normally what happens in a debate if you attack the other guy too viciously, the third person benefits. but if both of them attack romney which they both will, santorum will be the relative beneficiary, i think, because i think they're both going to be going after romney and santorum will benefit from, let's face it, he seems like a better person than newt.

he doesn't look like an assassin. newt will look like an assassin and that will help santorum. i think that's where it works during the next several debates. howard may have a different view. >> we'll go right now for a second to ron paul headquarters because ron paul is addressing his supporters. >> -- recognize my wife. her picture is on that cookbook. anybody see that cookbook? [ applause ] well, thank you very much. what a delightful crowd. sometimes say, boy, that was a good speech. no, that was a good crowd. that makes all the difference in the world. you know, we talk about it and a.j. mentioned one of three ticks out which is obviously true and one of two that can actually run a national campaign and raise the money. but there is nobody else that have people like you working hard and enthusiastic and believe in something. [ applause ]

that is all the difference in the world. and before i continue with any more comments i do want to bring at least step forward three of our chairmen, you met already, a.j. striker and david fisher would step forward as well as drew ivers who has been the chairman on the central committee and have led the charge all throughout iowa. [ applause ] but all i can think about in tough campaigns and all the hard work is the work you people do. it is unbelievable, the energy you have and the effort that you have made but what makes me feel good about it is you're doing it because you believe in something. that is what's worthwhile. but you also -- also know there's two good things.

some people say you guys just do that because you believe in something and want to promote a cause, certainly, how is the best way to promote a cause? that is win elections. that's the way you promote it. now, the enthusiasm has been unbelievable, it's fantastic. it's national. thousands of people now have been involved. not only in iowa but around the country and ready and rearing to go. we have to look at wonderful changes that have occurred in our country in a positive way. the country has suffered a lot in a negative way, the economy is in trouble. our civil liberties are being trashed. our foreign policy has been a mess and drains us both economically and our military forces. but at the same time people are coming together and we had the task, which where we are very successful, is reintroducing some ideas republicans needed for a long time and that is --

[ applause ] -- that is the conviction that freedom is popular. [ cheers and applause ] but once again we have had a fantastic showing for this cause and challenging people, not the status quo that we have been putting up with decades after decades. but challenge them and say, you know, let's challenge them. let's go back to this real old-fashioned idea, this very dangerous idea. let's obey the constitution. and too often those who preach limited government and small government, they forget that invasion of your privacy is big government and we have to emphasize protecting your personal rights and your economic rights are what the government is supposed to do. they're not supposed to run our

lives or spend our money. [ applause ] and also along those lines what we have introduced with so much enthusiasm, i hear so often from so many volunteers, the other day somebody came up to me and he was refreshing my memory because he knew i knew the statement because i've said it, back in the old days in the early '70s, nixon said we're all keynesians now which means even the republicans accepted liberal economics. he says, i'm waiting for the day when we can say we're all austrians now. but the biggest change, i think, in intellectual and political changes that we have brought about is the emphasis on a very important matter, making sure we get to the bottom of the ultimate bailouters and that is our federal reserve system, we need reforms there, and we need a new monetary system and obey

the constitution. this is -- this is something that we've made great progress, so the first and initial and important step we've worked so hard and it's on the table, today there was a national poll came out and they were talking about how many people supported the gold standard. how long it's been since they've taken a national poll on the gold standard? [ applause ] and guess what? the majority of the american people believe we should have a gold standard, not a paper standard. but also, also the great strides that we have made has been really on the foreign policy. the fact that we can once again talk in a republican circle and make it credible, talking about what eisenhower said to beware of the military industrial complex, talk about the old days when robert taft, mr. republican, said that we shouldn't be engaged in these entangling alliances. he believed what the founders taught us. he didn't even want to be in

nato. we certainly need nato and the u.n. to tell us when to go to war. but we have -- we have seen a great difference, the majority of the american people are behind us on this whole war effort. they're tired of the war, costs too much money, too many people get killed, too many people get injured. too many people get sick and the majority, maybe 70% or 80% of the american people now are saying it's time to get out of afghanistan. [ applause ] so those are the issues. those are the issues that we have brought front and center. they're out there. they're not going to go away and we have -- and we have tremendous opportunity to continue this momentum. it won't be long that there's going to be an election up in new hampshire, and, believe me, this momentum is going to continue, and this movement is going to continue and we are

going to keep scoring. just as we have tonight. [ cheers and applause ] so -- >> all: dr. paul. dr. pall. >> so tonight we have come out of an election and we're essentially three winners, three top vote getters, and we will go on, we will raise the money. i have no doubt about the volunteers. they're going to be there. [ applause ] a lot of you have said and you thank me and you compliment me and thank me for helping you along but let me tell you, you help me along. you help my family along, all our work, all our supporters because without your enthusiasm, we can't do it and this is where i feel most obligated. we want to do the job, present

the case and if anything isn't perfect, i worry not about myself, i worry about you and making sure that you're satisfied. i think there's nothing to be ashamed. everything to be satisfied and be ready and raring to move on on to the next stop which is new hampshire.earing to move on on to the next stop which is new hampshire. >> all: ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul, ron paul. >> now, i have another speaker, a special guest tonight. he's been with us this opening. as a matter of fact, he's been with us in our campaign for quite a few years and you may have met him because he's been around here this evening but i'd like him to come out and say a few words. he's been serving in the military for ten years and he's

been overseas a lot. a lot of it was in iraq and afghanistan and he was on tv tonight and he didn't quite get to finish his statement, so i've asked him if he would come out and make his comments about why he supports our foreign policy and why he is fighting for the constitution and what he thinks we should do but i will like to invite out now jesse thorsen to come out and say a few words to you. [ applause ] >> how about ron paul? [ cheers and applause ] >> if there's any man out there that's had a vision for this country it is definitely him. his foreign policy is by far hands down better than any candidate's out there and i'm sure you all know that. we don't need to be picking fights overseas and i think everybody else knows that too. i'm flabbergasted right now.

it's like meeting a rock star. but you know what, we're going to go to new hampshire. we're all going to get involved and go online and keep talking to people and make sure this man is the next president of the united states. [ applause ] >> jesse throsen i think he was introduced as, a soldier, striking to see him in uniform speaking on behalf of dr. paul. >> it is a powerful message and once again we all know where the active military people send their money when they're campaigning. they send it to our campaign for liberty, our campaign for the constitution, our campaign for limited government. our campaign for personal liberty and privacy and a wise foreign policy. [ applause ] >> the most important thing, the most important thing we have to remember is we want to have influence in the world and that's very important. we want to be active in the world. we want to talk to people, trade

with people and be friends with people. but what we need to realize is our ways, you know, there's people who say that we are an exceptional nation and we certainly are and have been but we're slipping. this idea that our exceptionalism out of desperation say we are so exceptional what we news do is prove it to the world and send our troops around the world and force it down their throats. if we don't we'll invade and occupy them and force an election on them. the best way to spread our message, do our job at home, preserve our liberties at home, provide the free market, have a sound currency, balance the budget, set an example and get them -- the rest of the world to emulate us. that is the road to peace and prosperity. thank you very much. [ cheers and applause ] >> thank you. >> ron paul speaking at his campaign headquarters to a very boisterous group of supporters. ron paul looking actually happier permanently there than

you usually see him looking on the stump. i will say his son senator rand paul evident behind him over his shoulder throughout those remarks looking stern, worst than stern throughout those remarks looking very, very serious even as his father looks so happy. a lot of people have looked to senator rand paul as an inhere tore of his father's legacy. i will just note that ron paul took sort of a swipe at rick santorum implicitly describing hip as unable to run a national campaign or raise the money to compete at the national level. also of note, mr. paul talking about maybe dropping out of nato, making an austrian economics joke and attacking the federal reserve. if you're wondering whether he would broaden his base tonight, ron paul did not go there. what you're looking at right now is newt gingrich headquarters in iowa. let's pause to hear from mr. gingrich.

[ applause ] >> wow like an introduction? would you like an intro dukz? >> sure. >> good evening.duction? >> sure. >> good evening. we all know that the 2012 election is about jobs and the economy. we know that americans demand a candidate with ideas and solutions to rebuild the america we love. [ cheers and applause ] there is only one reaganite conservative in this election and we just punched his ticket for new hampshire. [ cheers and applause ] >> well -- >> all: newt, newt, newt, newt,

newt, newt, newt. >> well, thank you, linda and i want to thank linda meyers, the majority leader in the house and greg ganske who all summer held this together when really it could have fallen apart. i want to thank everybody who worked all fall particularly during the avalanche of negative ads and also i want to thank the people of iowa. all through being drowned in negativity, everywhere we went people were positive, they were receptive. they were willing to ask questions. they would listen and they really wanted to get to the truth rather than the latest 30-second distortion and it really gave us a feeling that this process does work. i'm delighted to be here tonight and i think that we are at the beginning of an extraordinarily important campaign [ cheers and applause ]

at ultimate goal of this campaign has to be to replace barack obama and get america back on the right track. [ cheers and applause ] but let's be clear. one of the things that became obvious in the last few weeks in iowa is that there will be a great debate in the republican party before we are prepared to have a great debate with barack obama. and i think it's very important to understand that. and i want to take just a minute and congratulate a good friend of our, somebody we admire and family we admire and that's rick santorum. he waged a great, positive campaign. i served with rick. we've had a great relationship over the years and i admire the courage, the discipline the way

he focused and i also admire how positive he was. i wish i could say that for all the candidates. but here's the key thing to ask. it's not just about beating obama as important as that is. it's about what do we need to do as a country to get back on the right track and that's a lot bigger than just replacing one person in the white house. that's fixing the congress, fixing the bureaucracy, fixing the courts, resetting the culture, getting the judges to understand that they operate within the constitution, not above it. there are tremendous steps we have to take. and we have to re-establish the work ethic and recognize that we want to reward work, not redistribution. that we want to reward paycheck, not food stamps and this is going to be a very important national conversation. but it's not just about here at home. we also have to understand and this will be a major debate with congressman paul who's had a

very good night and i congratulate him having done very well but the fact is his views on foreign policy, i think, are stunningly dangerous for the survivaal of the united states and i think it's a very simple question which i would be glad to ask mr. paul at the next debate. if you have a terrorist prepared to put on a bomb and wear it as a vest and walk into a grocery store or a mall or a bus and blow themselves up as long as they can kill you, why would you think that if they could get access to a nuclear weapon they wouldn't use it? an iranian nuclear weapon is one of the most frightening things we have to confront for the future of every young person up here and every young person out there. if they are going to live in safety, they have to live in a world in which there is no iranian nuclear weapon, period.

[ cheers and applause ] so on that front we'll have a very important debate. is the world dangerous and do we need to be strong enough to protect ourselves or is the world really safe and it's just the americans who are confused? i have no doubt about 9/11. it was bad people trying to kill us. it wasn't americans. i have no doubt about the iranians, and i have no doubt about the importance of the survival of israel as a moral cause which we have to recognize as central to our future. [ applause ] so we'll have a great debate with congressman paul and it's important for setting a new stable foreign policy for the 21st century. we'll have -- one other great debate and that is whether this party wants a reagan conservative who helped change washington in the 1980s with

ronald reagan and helped change washington in the 1990s as speaker of the house, somebody who is into changing washington or we want a massachusetts moderate who, in fact, will be pretty good at managing the decay but has given no evidence in his years in massachusetts of any act to change the culture or change the political structure or change the government. [ cheers and applause ] let me be clear because i think it's important given all the things that were done in this state over the last few weeks. we are not going to go out and run nasty ads. we're not going to run 30-second gotchas. [ applause ] but i do reserve the right to tell the truth. [ cheers and applause ] and if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on

his record than it is on politics, so this is going to be a debate that begins tomorrow morning in new hampshire and will go on for a few moptsds, and i'm convinced that the republican party will pick an era of reagan and somebody with a track record of changing washington. i want to say two last things and i think crystal will join me in both of these. the first is and i think you'll find rick santorum saying the same thing. my dad was a career soldier for 27 years. i would not have survived in this campaign against millions and millions of dollars of negative advertising if it weren't for the thousands of volunteers who showed up and who helped us in every town and in every precinct, people who went out because they cared. we have someone up here who actually drove in from indianapolis around thanksgiving and said, i'm staying. someone else who brought three

children and drove up from texas and said, i'm staying. we have people who wanted to get america back on the right track. they weren't millionaires, they weren't from wall street. they didn't have a superpac but they had courage, they had work, they were smart and together we survived i think the biggest onslaught in the history of the iowa primary and we set the stage. [ applause ] now, i want to say one last thing, we were over earlier tonight in waterloo, which had the largest single site for caucusing and a very distant relative like 190 years named craig gingrich who came from pennsylvania for his great, great, great grandfather came from pennsylvania and spoke for me. he's gotten to know our younger daughter jackie and sent her what he was going to say and

part of what he said was about his two sons who just came back from serving in the middle east. and it reminded me and would like to close with this and it's so important, why the iowa experience and the new hampshire experience, the places where you actually have to see people, you can't just buy tv ads or use robo calls but in the end it's people, this process is what they risk their lives to preserve. this process of people coming together, sharing values, sharing fears and dreams, finding a way to come and get it to work unlike the current total mess in washington which i believe, frankly, is a bipartisan mess, unlike the current mess in washington, the american system over time works when the american people roll up their sleeves to make it work and every one of us, part of what made the negative ads so shameful, every one of us should

remember, this process survives because young men and women risk their lives to allow us to do this. we should act worthy of them. thank you, good luck and god bless you. on to new hampshire. [ cheers and applause ] >> let's go to chris matthews for reaction across town in des moines. chris matthews? >> i think we've just seen the terms of engagement here established for the crusade in new hampshire by newt gingrich. he's going to go after mitt romney up there on his record on health care, on his massachusetts moderation, on his taking care of decay up there basically and he's going to try to fund the campaign by a fear with people have some money against the threat of ron paul. it's going to be a campaign against newt romney financed out of fear that the republican party might be taken over by the rand paul people against defending our a lie in the

middle east israel and having a foreign policy of any kind of aggression at all. i just heard newt do what he had to do. he's got to raise a lot of money in the next couple of days. and the only way he can do that is put up the big danger sign it's vulnerable to losing foreign policy, its aggressive it had under w. and reagan and saying i have to fight that fight, i need your money but i need your money to destroy mitt romney up there so it's an interesting campaign. he declared an onslush, i shouldn't use that permanent, a peace treaty with santorum. he's not going to fight santorum. he's hoping santorum will accept those terps and not fight him. he wants to fight newt and do it m mano a mano but he needs money to get on the air up there. he needs money to go south and he put up the danger sign and the danger has a big name on it, ron paul. beware, the republican party's foreign policy economy stance is being threatened. i will defend it.

that's the only way to explain what we just heard there. i think, rachel. >> chris, i think we're hearing that -- i think you're right to identify that in terms of identifying ron paul as a danger but we heard the continued attack on mitt romney, that negative ads are also something that the rest of the country should care about and that should cause people to send newt gingrich money. that negative ads are some sort of national cause and it caught to be the reason you support newt gingrich for president. overall i thought it was a strong speech and i think that newt gingrich is a good speaker. i find i pay attention to every word he says when he's talking but his message here is about the process -- it's about the political process more than it is about the country. jump in there. >> rachel, can i just say i think it's possible that a wounded newt gingrich is more dangerous than a winning newt gingrich. because he has a cause. he now -- his candidacy now has a cause that's not himself, and lord knows, newt gingrich has

done plenty of negative campaigning in the past himself but now he's the agrieved party. now he's the guy who wants to reform the system. this is where i came into the movie with newt gingrich many years ago, rachel, when he was running to reform what he said he was going to do to reform the corrupt house of representatives. now in his mind he's got a corrupt system that he wants to reform and he is sort of the outsider, the struggling figure who is going to do it. that is newt gingrich at his best. i thought this speech tonight was probably the best speech that he's given in quite some time. >> it was extraordinary. >> this is just great for rick santorum and he should take these terms, because if newt is going to go after mitt romney, give santorum a breathing space to build the campaign that he doesn't now have and to be ready for south carolina to really potentially break through. great news for him. >> laurnls, that's the point you were just making, sort of an endorsement. >> just endorsed santorum. that's what happened there and

he'll stay in the race. he knows he won't rein but stay in the race so he can damage on the stage mitt romney, just do it personally like chris says right up there close to him but he effectively endorsed rick santorum. he knows it's over for him. >> endorsed him because what the story now will be is what will gingrich do for our saturday night and sunday and no one will be looking for the baggage of santorum. santorum will get a pass for three or four days because everyone is going to be in this gingrich threat. he was very kind to santorum and to give santorum time to get his sea leg, try to raise money and not be under the scrutiny of a front-runner if he pulls it out. the other interesting thing is that we see that mitt romney, got 30,000 votes in 2008, he'd be lucky if he got 30,000 votes tonight so he has not shown an increase in iowa and they've got all kinds of candidates

headed -- political candidates headed at him for the next few days. it's not a good night for mitt romney even though he pulled up to wherever he's going to end up one or two. >> one of the things we saw in 2008 was that mitt romney earned the ire of so many other candidates with his negative ads. we may be seeing that as sort of mano a mano way specifically with gingrich coming out of iowa if he plays the tip of the spear anti-mitt romney role we see him messaging tonight talking about mitt romney as a massachusetts moderate would will manage the decay of america, that is the kind of message that somebody who maybe is running alongside mitt romney may not give him but running behind him comfortably for revenge might be happy. we're look at michele bachmann's campaign headquarters. she's running sixth right now in iowa despite a very hard-working campaign there. let's see what she has to say. >> thank you, brad. i appreciate that. i was introduced in all 99

counties with that same phrase, pound for pound, no one takes it to them more. i can't thank him enough and the entire iowa team, you guys. thank you for everything you all have done. i just have some prepared ma remarks. i'm so grateful you're here and then we'll have a party afterwards so stick around. thank you so much, everyone and thank you to iowa, my home state. i've called ron paul, mitt romney, rick santorum, newt gingrich, rick perry to congratulate each one of them on their respective places this evening in the lineup. the people of iowa have spoken and they have written the very first chapter in this long journey to take our country back from barack obama and make no mistake, we will. [ cheers and applause ] once again, this wonderful republic that we are privileged to live in has worked. the process worked. it's the people of iowa who chose tonight. it wasn't the pundits. it wasn't the media and while

this has been a very tough campaign, we should never forget that its crucible will make the eventual nominee tried for even the tougher battle that is yet to come against barack obama. i am so proud of the people who have run our campaign here in iowa and i will be forever grateful to this wonderful state and to the wonderful people of iowa for launching us on our path to victory in the iowa straw poll. and this state has given voice to people all over our country that barack obama's liberal policies are finished and that in 2012 there will be another occupant in the white house. who knows, maybe even another m michele in the white house and once again it's the people's voice that will be heard there and make no mistake as i have said often and early on this campaign, barack obama will be a

one-term president. did you hear that, america? you heard it here from iowa. i'm a very real person. i am not a politician nor do i ever hope or aspire to be a politician. i saw what the government was doing to all of us, to our children and doing to our liberties and so i decided to stand up. i decided that i was going to fight not only for our five children and our 23 foster children, but also for your children too. because they deserve it. we deserve to give them a better and a more hopeful future. it's really true and i'm sorry to say, we have strayed from the vision of our founders' view of government and the 2012 election might very well be our last opportunity to reclaim our liberty from a government that somehow seems bent on taking more and more of it away from us every day. but since day one of barack obama's presidency, i have led the fight in washington against his liberal socialist policies

and when the president wanted a $1 trillion stimulus package, i said no. and when the president pushed to take over your health care and replace it with socialized medicine, i led 40,000 people to washington, d.c. to let the president know that the american people were against it we don't want socialized medicine. we're not going to keep socialized medicine and barack obama, socialized medicine will be repealed. when the president said last summer he wanted to raise the debt limit to an unbelievable $16 trillion, i said no. over the last three year, the american people have tragically been deprived this their president a leader as he withers in the paramount challenges of our nation. he is guarded and guided by his

hardened ideology and he's held -- withheld any prospect for economic recovery as he routinely places his own political fortunes and his own re-election plans above the interests of the american people. look no further than his denial of building the keystone to pipeline. that was all about his re-election. nothing to do with energy independence for the american people. his liberal reign will end and the american people and our economy will finally be free. because you see, what we need is a candidate in the likeness and image of a ron nall reagan who has the bold differences necessary to take on a barack obama. what we need is a fearless conservative, one with no compromises on their record, on spending, on health care, on crony capitalism, on defending america, on standing with our ally israel. on securing our border from illegal immigrants or on

defending innocent unborn life or protecting marriage between one man and one woman. if anyone is confused, so we can defeat barack obama and his failed socialist policies, i believe that i am that true conservative who can and who will defeat barack obama in 2012. and over the next few days just be prepared. the pundits and the press will again try to pick the nominee based on tonight's results but there are many more chapters to be written on the path to our party's nomination. and i prefer to let the people of the country decide who will represent us. and, of course, i'm very deeply grateful to our iowa team to the many dedicated volunteers who have given so much of their time to this effort. it's absolutely amazing to see our offices filled day after day with young people. and they selflessly volunteered because they need to have a better future full of more opportunities than our

generation had. and i also thank all of the volunteers who have been there almost on a daily basis making phone calls from before the straw poll. you know who you are. i know who you are and i thank you for your dedication. i hope you know how much your dedication not only meant to me but our country and, of course, it shouldn't be even needed to be said but it must be said, i must thank my wonderful husband of 33 years, marcus bachmann. [ applause ] he is the best campaigner in our family and yesterday when we were out on main street in des moines, he was buying doggie sunglasses for our dog boomer while we were out visiting all of the many businesses and all of our children who are here this evening, our son lucas, our son harrison, our daughter aliza, daughter caroline, daughter sofia, we love them all, our 23 foster children, my

brothers are here tonight, scott, i have paul, i have gary, my sister-in-law lori and my others who couldn't be here as well but i'm so grateful for them and my wonderful mother who if you all wonder where i got my height from, i have no excuse. my mother jean and my stepdad ray and all of my family who is here. their love, their encourage many, their faith means more to me than i can begin to say but more than anything, i thank the god who loves us, the god who gave us life, who gave us our being, who created and drew this nation into existence. it is to the got of our fathers that we give praise this evening. so i thank you all for being here tonight. god bless you. god bless the united states. [ applause ] >> michele bachmann speaking in her campaign headquarters in iowa tonight. not dropping out of the race, i'm sorry to have to headline that from her speech but that is when you finish sixth in iowa, that is the thing that people are looking for, michele

bachmann though not saying that she would be dropping out of the race. i do have to give you an update in terms of what we're looking at, 96% of the vote in. in terms of the top two finishers, look, look at the difference between. that's not some weird percentage or extrapolation, that's 79 votes. that is the difference between the two candidates, rick santorum ahead of mitt romney by 79 votes. with 96% of the vote in right now. ron paul as you know projected by nbc news to be the third place finisher tonight, right now gingrich, perry and bachmann running fourth, fifth and sixth but between santorum and romney, you cannot see daylight. right now want to bring in chuck todd, if we can. chuck, to find out what we are still waiting for with 96% in and what a 79-vote margin means in terms of recounting and whether we'll have a definitive result tonight. >> there is no recount. there is no delegates at stake

so technically at stake tonight because of the way the district conventions work so there is no recount provision in this at all. but that doesn't mean they're not going to -- that you're not going to have the representatives of the czar and romney campaigns want every scrap of paper counted because the perception of who wins still will matter a little bit. the biggest chunk of vote is in story county, call it the des moines -- one that mike huckabee won 17 points over mitt romney four years ago but we do expect paul to do better in that county. half of the remaining raw vote, something like 8,000 votes yet to be counted, half of it is in story county but let's look at this big picturewise. this is a huge night for rick santorum. he is now looking like the leader of the conservative primary. he comes out of here with real momentum especially if he can, you know, hold that razor thin lead, you know, that he is the perception and, frankly, all

night long the perception has been him. about the only downside for rick santorum tonight is he hasn't been able to give a victory speech. he hasn't been able to rally troops. you know, these speech, these moments do matter. but it is big for them and now you've got mitt romney having to go to new hampshire and he's running against himself. everybody expects him to win but by how much now? you know, he's already up by quote/unquote 20 points, santorum is sitting in single digits in all of these polls. if we had just gone by the new hampshire polls he might not have qualified for our nbc news facebook debate because he hasn't hit 5% there. that will change and he'll get momentum out of this in the next week. how close does he get? remember, there is some blue collar catholic precincts that rick santorum who grew up in western pennsylvania, he's going to go up to new hampshire and find some like-minded folk, people that will remind him of people that he knew when he was growing up and campaigned for when he first ran for congress

and that leaves mitt romney in one of these weird positions where he's just simply how much does he win by, how quickly does santorum close the gap and now they set themselves up for south carolina 11 days after that and at that point if newt gingrich is there serving as sort of a lead blocker for santorum, which it sounds like what newt said he would do, i'm going to throw all these bombs at romney and by the way almost plow the field for rick santorum, i mean he didn't say it in those terms but it seemed to be the subtle message he was sending, boy, that helps santorum buy some time to build an organization because right now he doesn't have the infrastructure, frankly, to compete in the biggest prize in january and that's florida on january 31st. >> chuck, in terms of how rick santorum might meaningfully position himself against mitt romney in new hampshire, the sharpest contrast to that mr. czar has drawn with mr. romney is on family values issues. things like abortion, even in

rick santorum's case he's campaigned against contraception and things like that. if that's the sharpest contrast he can draw between himself and mitt romney is there fertile ground for that among new hampshire voters. >> well, actually, no, because but i do think another thing he's done, he's the only candidate that said we got to revitalize the manufacturing base. you know, he's a little bit -- he almost is talking about having government help get involved to revitalize the manufacturing sector. and that is something that can resonate there. remember, new hampshire has this conservative populist streak that was able to launch pat buchanan back in '96 so there is -- i do think there is an economic populism aspect to rick santorum in his message on the manufacturing -- trying to revitalize the manufacturing sector that could connect there. i think if he runs a campaign only on social issues, he wouldn't be able to i think go toe to toe with romney but you

know what, he hasn't been running fully on social issues. his reputation is that he is this social conservative evangelist if you will but out here in iowa it's been a mix of that manufacturing plan he's been pushing, an aggressive hawk i shall foreign policy and of course the social issues. >> while we were waiting to hear from rick perry, steve schmitt, let me ask you, thinking about the parallels with huckabee and having gone to new hampshire and being beaten by john mccain, huckabee also had a populist sort of big government manufacturing base message, as well. it's part of the way he explained why he raised taxes as governor of arkansas, what he thought he needed to do, investments he needed to make. why didn't huckabee get more traction with a combined social conservative religious and economic populist message like that in new hampshire? >> i think that at the end of the day it's tough for a southern evangelical to compete in new hampshire. rick santorum is not a southern

evangelical. he is a northeasterner. will he be able to go into new hampshire and to be able to move numbers? how far will his momentum take him? i think the newt gingrich concession speech was the most remarkable concession speech i've ever seen in politics. he basically announced that he was going to be the blocking fullback for rick santorum. he looks mad as hell and he's about to give it to mitt romney with all he's got and every debate going forward and i just think it's going to be remarkable to watch over -- >> we were just talking. we spent the whole first hour talking about newt gingrich complaining about the negativity then when he got to what he was going to do to mitt romney he essentially do something that might look really negative to mitt romney but doesn't want it to be seen that way. >> he reserved the right to tell the truth which might be negative. it included the sentence i'm not a politician by michele bachmann, which i take as her withdrawal from the race. i am not a politician. she's really out of it.

she knows she's out of it and she for some reason doesn't want to say that tonight. whether she's going to say it before new hampshire, i don't know but it won't be long after new hampshire so where do michele bachmann people go and there aren't really in new hampshire? santorum looks like the guy for those folks. >> waiting to see if there are perry people cut loose. we'll hopefully here from rick perry within the next couple of minutes. to chris matthews in the meantime, where we're waiting to hear if we're going to hear from rick santorum. chris? >> watch santorum begin tomorrow with the help of newt gingrich who is going to be his point of his spear as we say. watch him go after the irish and italian people that have moved up to new hampshire to get away from the taxes of massachusetts and the culture thereof. i watched pat buchanan in '92 and '96 once taking on george herbert walker bush and i'm getting about 37% and smashing bob dole against the pollsters. what's happened is a lot of the polling up there assumes that

new hampshireites are a bunch of granite state yankees when in fact they aren't any more. they're irish and italian people that don't like big government. as tip o'neill used to say in new hampshire ey don't even like parks, they don't like government. what you'll see, watch santorum maybe pick up that buchanan vote up there against the establishment and really put on a challenge, perhaps, with gingrich's help against the yankee, if you will, mitt romney, it could be very fascinating and just a four or five-day race but it will climax saturday night in that abc debate and have the follow-up on sunday morning with david's show "meet the press." you'll see an attack like you've never seen from newt to the benefit of santorum. it's going to be fascinating. this thing is wide open. >> he has a heck of a wing man. no question about it and santorum goes into new hampshire, no pressure. just raise money. make a good showing, stick to your principles, do what you did

as best you can down in iowa. >> pro life. >> all know your window is different. >> it doesn't party if he gets walloped there. >> he won't get walloped. i don't think he will. he'll show better. he'll get some traction out there. gingrich will help him out but gingrich might have a credibility problem too. all of a sudden gingrich is the high and mighty voice of how complains ought to be run. let's not get too close to gingrich, santorum. >> how gingrich goes after him and the real problem is that if i'm in romney's camp, i want to go to new hampshire and start running against president obama. now he has got to run against santorum. and the longer that narrative plays, the better it is for the president. that's -- >> i think he says i can't say enough nice things about santorum. >> i've seen him on the stump. he does talk about manufacturing. he talks about repatriating money coming back into the united states. zero percent when it comes to corporate tax.

i mean he does have a manufacturing plan which is going to play well in new hampshire. he'll talk to the middle classers up there. he'll have social conservatives -- >> that is not a manufacturing plan. that is a big corporate tax break that produces absolutely -- >> that is his pitch, lawrence. i've seen it. i was there. >> for -- >> he wants to repatriate the money coming back to the united states. that's what he wants to do. >> no, it's the opposite. >> he wants to bring the money back is what he wants to do and give them breaks -- >> he's in favor of repatriating profits made in foreign countries on manufacturing -- >> that may be your interpretation. >> it is what it is and it does nothing -- he has no program for manufacturing. >> he does. he does have a program for it. it may not be one you like. >> look, it's rick perry. >> rick perry at his campaign headquarters in iowa right now. looks to be places just ahead of michele bachmann running in fifth place right now. let's hear what he has to say. >> they did a fabulous job and i

just -- i want to take a moment and just say thanks to the people of iowa. they welcomed us into their homes and these were communities that reminded anita and i so much of places where we grew up and where i agriculture commissioner traveled across the state of texas and i got to tell you, cliff, this so much reminded me of that race back in 1990 when we traveled across the state of texas and, you know, nobody thought we had a chance to win and we surprised a lot of people and the fact is, we had that same feeling here. people who love america, who love the values that this country are based upon and just, you know, and all of you folks who travel from 30 plus states to come here and to work and to caucus and to put up signs, i want to share with you just a letter that was handed to me

earlier and this was like he said "words cannot express how thankful i am for being able to serve you this past week. my name is colt smith" [ applause ] >> got you there, brother. my name is colt smith. he said, i'm 24 years old and i just graduated from state university and lives in texas and he said he got his bs degree in ag and said he also -- he graduated in the top 10 in his class. [ applause ] >> of 13 just like i did, right? and he said, i drove here i broke down in kansas. he said i spent $2,000 to get it fixed. he said, well, i got a loan. but still made it. he said this has been the best

experience of my life. he said today i saw you for the first time in perry -- if perry, iowa, and he said i know you are a good man but i never realize ed what a great man you were. [ applause ] he said it brought me to tears to see a man who feared the lord and when you told that soldier or you called him your christian brother, he said, it blew me away. he said i want so much for me to know that -- oh, he said i want you to know i got to know your son and that i got to meet your wife anita.

your family is wonderful. i've enjoyed my visits with your staff along the way. ray sullivan and joe are great people. basically i want you to know you matter. and are making a difference. i visited a thousand homes today and you better -- and you matter to them also. this has to be the greatest honor of my life. and you need more volunteers to help you in south carolina, count me in. i'll be happy to serve you again. thank you. [ cheers and applause ] colton smith from texas. i wanted to read that to you. and ps'd by saying sorry i rambled so much. it's 1:30 in the morning and i've been out putting out sign, 4 assigns. that's what it's all about, folks.

that's what this has all been about and want to say thank you to everyone who has come and volunteered and worked and made the most incredible experience for myself and for the woman that i've been so blessed to have by my side all these many years for 30 years of my life of wedded bliss. [ cheers and applause ] there's not anybody that fought any harder or been a greater partner than anita and the love of my life and blessed to be standing on this stage and representing the state of texas and frankly representing america and i think the values that are so important to our country. and to be here with my children, griffin and meredith and sydney, you know, when i began this campaign a little more than four months ago, i didn't do it because it was a lifelong ambition to be the president of the united states. i did it because our country is

in trouble. many of you have heard the story of us, anita and i sitting on the couch talking about this wasn't my purpose in life. but our country was in trouble. and it was my duty to serve my country one more time and this campaign's never been about me. it's about a movement of americans who are -- who see our country that's really not on the track that most of us want it to be on. $15 trillion of debt. some 50 million americans that are on food stamps, 13 million of us, 13 million of our fellow citizens that are out of work. they don't see a washington that's willing to make hard decisions to help them, to get them back on their feet again. they're looking for people to make some right decisions. they're looking for someone that will stand up and give them hope

that we can get this country back on track again. but with the voters' decision tonight in iowa i've decided to return to texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race. i believe that this is the greatest nation on the face of the earth. a nation that i was blessed to serve as a pilot in the united states air force, a nation that has been and will continue to be a beacon for freedom around the world and dan moran, you, marines like yourself, soldiers that are serving still today and airmen, sailors around the world, you've made every minute

of this worth it for ourselves and with a little prayer and reflection i'm going to decide the best path forward but i want to tell you there has been no greater joy in my life than to be able to share with the people of iowa and of this country that there is a model to take this country forward and it is in the great state of texas. god bless you and thank you all for being with us tonight. >> governor rick perry of texas announcing tonight that he is suspending his campaign and returning to texas. before tonight rick perry has never before in his entire life lost an election. he says he is reassessing his campaign. i should be precise. reassessing his campaign, returning to texas. his campaign had previously announced that there would be a full slate of events for him tomorrow in south carolina but he