perhaps we will find his greatness. perhaps not. and that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. stay with çmsnbc now for full coverage of the new hampshire primary. on this night four years ago, the whip other of new hampshire's republican primary began his march to the republican nomination. on this night four years ago, the democratic runner up in new hampshire first uttered this defining refrain. >> yes, we can. yes, we can. yes, we can. >> tonight, the incumbent president's victory is a sure thing in new hampshire's democratic presidential primary. among republicans, there's a seemingly prohibitive front runner, but if mitt romney does win tonight, will his margin of victory be enough to meet high expectations? >> and if i'm president of the united states, i will not forget new hampshire. >> no matter who wins tonight,

all right hard-fought campaign in new hampshire leave lasting marks going forward? >> i like being able to fire people. >> after banking everything on new hampshire, with the pac outspending all other new hampshire campaigns, has jon huntsman convinced new hampshire that he is a viable alternative to romney? >> governor romney enjoys firing people. i enjoy creating jobs. >> crowds have been gathering to hear rick santorum speak after his impressive snowing iowa but does the santorum message resonate with new hampshire voters? >> i will be back again in the fall as the nominee. >> msnbc's coverage of the 2012 new hampshire presidential primary begins right now.ç good evening from our msnbc

headquarters here in new york city i'm rachel maddow, alongside our panel for the night, republican strategist steve schmidt is here, a chief strategist with the mccain campaign four years ago, he is now an msnbc political analyst. the host of "the ed show" on msnbc, ed schultz. lawrence o'donnell, the host of the last word and the host of politics nation, the former presidential candidate himself, the reverend al sharpton. chris matthews is leading our coverage from manchester new hampshire, tonight. good evening, chris this is going to be a fun night. >> it will be that certainly rachel. you know, new hampshire has a certain character. personally, i like that very new england word flinty. voters up here respect public service but able to reject simple partisanship. back in the '50s, they voted for general eisenhower when he wasser issing at the time in paris as head of nato n '60s, they wrote in henry cabot lodge when he was serving as ambassador to south vietnam. both members it is important to note, republican at the time,

serving democratic presidents, like john huntsman, serving as ambassador to china under president obama. new hampshire said no to the vietnam war by giving a boost to gene mccarthy, four years later to george mcgovern t likes gritty mavericks different as pat buchanan and john mccain, a state that doesn't like the bushes, father or son, likes the clintons, bill and hillary, both who made big çcomebacks here, likes nothing better than to buck the tide, bang on the pipes, whatever says, look here. rachel? >> chris that is excellent. when we look ahead tonight, all of you guys, we look ahead tonight to what is probably mitt romney victory, his prohibitive lead in the polls seems to suggest he is coasting towards a first place finish what is more important, the way his rivals are going after him right now in terms of the way that sets the tone for the rest of the campaign or who comes in second is a second place finish the most important thing that comes out of tonight? >> when off guy from massachusetts, there is always a massachusetts discount in the

new hampshire primary. paul tsongas won the new hampshire primary 33% of the vote, bill clinton came in second at 24. second is what it's all about when you have a massachusetts guy in there. >> reverend? >> i think part of what tonight is going to show is there is still a moderate wing to the republican party because even though i agree with lawrence about the tsongas/clinton analogy, let us remember that this party has gone all the way right and drug willard all the way with it. so, if in new hampshire, unlike iowa, iowa is very conservative, new hampshire is supposed to be a little bit more centrist, but if mr. huntsman cannot come in with a strong vote, it will send a national message that this whole party is going so far right that they may have marginalized themself for the general leeks. >> if ron paul does well, does that factor in there, a long right wing vote? >> a whacky right-wing vote at %

that. if huntsman is not able to say in a state like new hampshire that is considered more moderate and that's considered more reasonable to the general electorate and independents thank than iowa was, that he can mount a serious number here tonight, i think they have set mr. romney up for president obama because they have got him saying all kind of right-wing stuff and he is going to have to live with that in a general election if he is the nominee. >> you know, going inside the numbers tonight, when is mitt romney going to convince conservatives that he is more electable than anybody else? if he wins big a big margin tonight, 15 or more points, i think you will see a lot of people around the country and the republican party say, you know, i think we will be stuck with this guy, nobody will be able to mount the charge against him f you are 2-0, that's mojo. if you are 0-2, trying to raise money, you lost by 15 points, that's going to be awfully tough. >> you think the margin is the thing that is going to define that not the attacks on him? >> well, in the margin, you're

going to find some conservatives that are capitulating saying, yeah, he is my guy. i mean, when you break down the money, when you break down the social conservatives, when you break down the moderates, i mean, where -- i mean, is he going to be able to pick from all of those groups enough to give him a big margin of victory? i don't think there is any one group of people that is going to put mitt romney over the top tonight. it is going to be a collection sand that collection going to be big enough to be convincing? >> steve what do you think? >> i think tonight what mirst hoping for is to have an early call on the ray he can go out, give a victory speech between 9, 9:30 p.m., not have to wait past 11 p.m. to begin to put this awful 48ç hours behind him tha he has had. this has been an ominous week for republicans because, surprisingly, both rick per rained newt gingrich have become the chief surrogates for president obama and his campaign message and they have legitimized now this issue of bain capital and mitt romney's record. and i think that you're going to

see a lot of it in the general election. this has not been a great week for republicans, as you have seen republican candidates demagog these issues with as much abandonize think some of our democrats do. >> i should note the club for growth today saying it is highly disturbing that newt gingrich would equate the success of private equity firms like bain capital to rich guys looting companies. speaker gingrich knows better and the fact he would stoop to economically ignorant class warfare rhetoric to promote his own political campaign is down right obamaesque. that would be a notable attack on newt gingrich if he was the only one who is doing this. rick perry today calling mitt romney a vulture for his business career. >> but mitt must have known this was coming. i mean this bain story has been out there in past elections. this hasn't blind sided him. i'm surprise they had weren't more prepared for t. >> i think it is a political matter, ed that the republican response to a totally predictable attack that's going to come from the president, going to come from the democrats

in the general election is a defense and explanation of the free enterprise system and the benefit to the middle class and the country. the problem is republican candidates who ought to know better are demagoging this issue, looking for daily points in the news cycle and are doing at the expense ofç a chance of republican being able to win in november. they are legit mizing this issue and one of the things that mitt romney has to do in the jeep election context if he is the nominee is delegitimize the issue, to point out its demagoguery. and it is tough to do when you criticize the other side went fact it is your own side on the attack. >> let's not say mr. romney comes that the with clean hands. when his friends in the pac and mr. gingrich bringing up all of his shenanigans in iowa, you can't really have a bleeding heart for them coming out with bain. i mean, he just totally slayed newt gingrich with commercials in iowa. you know, there's a biblical expression, you reap what you

sow. he sowed it in iowa, he reap it had in new hampshire and mr. obama will benefit from it in november. mr. romney better be ready for what is going to hit him in north carolina, newt gingrich has taken out a $3 million ad, a lot of it is going to hit him on a small factory shutdown, a photo plant in gaffney, south carolina and it is going to be brutal. >> southern hospitality. it is the last stand for the conservatives, i guess. >> nbc news has had campaign embed reporters covering the campaigns since last summer this is one of the best jobs in all of news. we are going to be checking in with several of them, starting right now, actually, beginning with garrett hake, covering the romney campaign. thanks for being with us. what are you hearing from the romney campaign tonight? >> reporter: rachel, my pleasure. these guys are confident tonight. this is a campaign that, despite the gaffe, despite the sort of story lines that developed this week, they remain organized a campaign that has the weight of industry behind them, in a i stopped by the headquarters today, guys refreshing a monitor, keeping track of 40

precincts they think will determine this thing. some are bellwethers, some they do better than expected, some they expect to do worse. this after mean when i was there turnout was down in keen, along the valley, the side of the state where they think guys like john huntsman was better, that turnout was down. they feel cautiously optimistic about this they still expect to wins, just the question of how much and change the narrative tomorrow. >> garrett hake covering the romney campaign. thank you. moving on now to anthony terrell covering the ron paul campaign. anthony, how is the ron paul campaign feeling in these last few minutes, these last few hours before we know what happened tonight? >> reporter: hi, rachel. they are feeling pretty confident because of the independent vote they are going to have a strong second place finish here in new hampshire. they say the enthusiasm of their support letters drive them out to the polls and they are hoping that a strong second place finish will carry the momentum into south carolina where dr. paul will hold a campaign rally in columbia, south carolina, at noon. dr. paul is leaving within 12 hours of the results coming here, heading right to south

carolina and hoping this -- there's going to be momentum bringing him there from independent votes here in new hampshire. >> anthony, am i right that ron paul is already saying he is not going to be competing in florida, he is going to south carolina but leaving florida to the other candidates? >> reporter: well, the campaign is saying that they have a strong grassroots -- grassroots effort going on in florida and that florida is a winner take all state, so it would be not a waste of resource bus they could spend their money better elsewhere. in florida, they say has a lot of goldman sachs money to win that state so they will move on and focus on other caucus states, beginning with nevadaéo >> anthony terrell with the paul campaign. jolene kent is covering the huntsman campaign. joe what is the huntsman campaign feeling in these last few minutes? >> reporter: well, i just spoke with the family and they are all together, getting ready to go they are a little bit nervous but they are excited. the returns tonight are probably going to be a lot better than they ever expected them to be. the huntsman family and john

huntsman himself have campaigned here for over six moments now, trying to get every single last the low is. they have planned to go to south carolina, they have got their tickets book, see what happens tonight, expecting a third, maybe second place finish, again, the surge has come out of nowhere, just the past couple of days. so, we are going to see if that is actually going to work here on the ground and if it actually materialized in the precincts. rachel? >> thanks, jolene. >> jolene, let me ask you about money. will huntsman have the money from his father to go into the pac to support him going into south carolina if he only places third or fourth tonight? is there a threshold he has to meet in order to have his father continue to fund his campaign? >> reporter: well, we know from here in new hampshire that having that super pac money behind you and get pug on the air is not enough to put you over the top with voters. i think a lot of people want to see that you have the ability to sustain a long-term campaign at these town hall meetings across new hampshire. people are asking if they have enough money from the campaign and the campaign is saying they will have a surge in the fund raising if they do well here

tonight and we will see what happens but definitely, a lot more money is going to be necessary, especially to compete in a place like florida where huntsman thinks he is a little bit more viable. >> thank you, jo ling kept covering the huntsman campaign. typely to alex covering the gingrich campaign. how is the c'grich campaign feeling tonight? >> reporter: feeling good. he spent the day meeting with voters, completely mobbed by the media at some points, very intense and i was able to get on the bus and spend time with speaker gingrich and his wife, calista, eating their favorite donuts from ian's wicked good donuts, really high spirits and said they are looking forward to going down to south carolina. he said they are going to be spending the rest of the day packing, getting ready for that trip south because that really is the state they are going to be staking their entire presidential campaign on. they heap do well here in new hampshire but their goal was to kind of knock mitt romney down a lit built and not let him get close to that 50% threshold. all ready for him here, he is going to be speaking and heading

directly down to south carolina tonight. he has his first event at 9 a.m. tomorrow and we will be kicking it off there in south carolina in just a couple hours. >> thank you, alex moe covering the gingrich campaign. appreciate it. i got to say people doing these embed assignments with nbc, i think it is the best job in news. they are working essentially 24-hour days but they are with those candidates every minute of every day and have seen some of the most interesting stuff that anybody gets to see on the campaign. all right, when we return, we are going to be getting our first numbers from our exit polling, plus nbc news political director chuck todd will be joining us and hearing from supporters from the campaigns. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

welcome back to msnbc's live

coverage of the new hampshire primary. polls will close statewide in new hampshire at 8 eastern. we have our first look at the exit polling from new hampshire. for that, we turn to our own tamron hall. tamron? >> we are getting our first look at voters who pent went to the polls in new hampshire were thinking about today. first, the issues. you see it there, the economy was the issue that voters cared most about when choosing a candidate. at 60% versus 25%, who said the federal deficit was the most important with abortion and health care trailing behind. now, to what qualities the voters looking for in a candidate and honestly, it was pretty evenly divided, a third said the most important quality is the ability to beat president obama. 27% said they wanted someone with the right experience to be president and you see there, 24% said strong moral character with just 14% saying they were looking for a true conservative. now, in terms of ideology, 54%

are conservatives 34% moderates, 12% saying they were liberals. that is a lot different that what we saw just last week in iowa, we see there, 83% of caucus goers were overwhelmingly conservative. that is a whopping number of people who identified themselves as conservatives in iowa. just 2% calling themselves liberals. and we will be keeping a close eye on the stories coming out of the exit poll data and be back with much more information, rachel. >> tamron that is fascinating, to look at the difference between iowa and new hampshire there, to see moderates more than twice as represented in new hampshire as they are in iowa. the number of liberals six times as representative of people voting. >> an indicator for ron paul. >> you think so? >> absolutely. >> not jon huntsman? >> he is the anti-war candidate in there he has some hard-core liberal voters ár&l have voted for obama and go into this kind of primary. new hampshire, any end pepped dent, anybody who is not a

registered democrat can walk in there today and vote in this thing and so the paul number is going to be base old a collection of people who actually, in many ways, do not represent the republican party. he is really not a republican candidate. he is a libertarian candidate who ran that way you never got any attention and decided i'm going to run as a libertarian in the republican primaries so i can be on tv. he should be completely discounted. he has nothing to do with the republican party. >> are they really liberals though? i know they are anti-war. >> ones who say they are liberals are liberals, 12%. >> but the liberals out there also care about the big three and ron paul is out to gut everything out there that the government funds in any way, shape or form. it's a strange makeup. >> you get to cast this anti-war vote for ron paul and then go vote for barack obama in november. >> yeah. >> let's check in with our nbc news political director chuck todd, keeping an out for what we should watch as the results come in tonight. chuck, what do you got your eye on? >> i thought i would give folks a way to watch the returns as they come in.

so let's look at where romney needs to perform well and you will find out, you know, where he has got to be polling, you know, close 40% in the return it is he wants to be having the good night that he wants. it would be on the border counties of massachusetts here, hillsborough in particular, that's manchester, the county that encompasses manchester, but all the massachusetts border county, a lot of sort of massachusetts refugees live in these three counties, work in massachusetts and this is where he performed well four years ago. few other things, 80% of the entireç electorate is in these five counties. as you can see, merrimac is where concord is i mentioned hillsborough there you got travel is ford, rockingham where portsmouth is and grafton, 80% in just those five counties. when the vote is in, we will know where we are. where could a huntsman do well? a ron paul do well? this is where john mccain

overperformed in 2000 answered overperformed, his actual number where he did well end pen dents, the big one merrimac, concord, normally a democratic county in general elections, but this is where mccain did very, very well in 2000. let see what the huntsman/paul numbers are out of here to see if one of them surging well for that battle for second place if we assume that's where it is at. interesting to see how santorum and gingrich do particularly in that county. and one place where ron paul may do better than -- perform like buchanan performed is in this northern tier here, that is the place where used to be a lot more conservative, coos, now

more libertarian, paul may see that he get a lot of vote out there, rachel. >> chuck, thank you. go back to chris matthews who is inç manchester with michael steele and gene robinson. >> thank you very much, rachel. the fascinating numbers i thought there, we have got with us, michael steele, the former chair of the republican national committee and gene robinson of the "washington post." the fascinating number struck me, actually, gentlemen, this idea that the republican parties know not all hard right. here we have a party now defining itself as 46%, almost half, michael, of your party as moderate or liberal. the word liberal, republican, is almost at throw if i had, here we have people admit it. >> noted a atrophied people would like it to be. the reality is, i harped on this as national chairman, the north southeast not the south, the south is not the midwest and the midwest is not the southwest. vufrmts met actually liberal republicans? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> where are they? >> but not big numbers.

how do you define lib sflal it is more socialist. >> this electorate is independents though? how many independents are coming out of -- i suspect they are a huge chunk of this -- of this vote. they are. they are. >> and so -- >> you can't really generalize about the national republican party, i think. >> no you can generalize, i just did, i just told you what it is, it is not reflective of what -- >> okay, here is the -- >> no it is not iowa. it is not iowa, it is not south carolina, it is a broad base it is a coalition of interests that come around certain core princip principles. >> michael, a challenge here. i knee a lot of liberals who won't use the word anymore, it isç afraid they are going to offend somebody, they call themselves progressives, the people who are republicans, vote republicans, i'm a liberal. pretty dramatic. >> based on a social -- a social

context, not necessarily an economic one. >> that's what you say? >> foreign policy. >> you believe that social noneconomics? >> i want to see how many are voting here. >> a number. >> people who identify -- who are registered and identified as republican republicans, much more conservative in the past. >> i think a tree glows brooklyn here, something we didn't expect, liberal republicans, thank you, rachel, they doak cyst. >> this dough exist, we have found them today. and you know, looking ahead to what we are going to learn tonight, 20 points was the margin by which john mccain won voters in 2008 in the republican primary who cared most about the economy. if you cared most about the economy, by 20 points, you went for john mccain where are those voters going tonight in new hampshire? we have got the chief strategist from the mccain campaign on our panel here in new york, hearing from steve schmidt and the rest of our panel, plus a top romney supporter around one-time rival, former presidential candidate tim pawlenty. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

election night, thank you for being with us as we cover the new hampshire primary tonight. in the year 2000, john mccain got absolutely killed in iowa. he came in fifth place in iowa. went on to win in new hampshire, the year 2008, john mccain got killed in iowa, came in fourth place in iowa, went on to whip new hampshire. how was john mccain able to wrap up new hampshire in 2000 and in 2008? >> because he had appeal for independent voters will were able to participate in the republican primary in new hampshire. and so much of the depate in the republican party today, rachel, is that, you know, it is a sign of weakness, right, they were rhino, that you have the ability to attract independent voters, people who aren't rebel gistersed and republicans ought to look at that as a virtue. an important state in the jeep leeks, three electoral votes matter in a close election, so, for president obama, for

whomever the republican nominee is, this will be a state that they are back out campaigning in the fall and you want to be able to have broad appeal with independent voters. >> what does that say about -- about john mccain tonight? obviously huntsman is staking it all on new hampshire but there's a lot of hostility to him. ed just happened this to me, donald trump tweeting tonight, new hampshire has a major decision to make today. hopefully we won't have to hear any mandarin spoken in future debates. >> well, that is all about huntsman being instantaneously rejecting of the trump debate. it is all personal with donald. >> yeah. >> huntsman was out there instantly saying that is an absurdity, i will not do it huntsman said it was beneath the dignity. >> his response was lol. >> and so here is donald, you know? >> what kind of finish does huntsman have to have to make a run at south carolina? what does he have to do tonight? i think that's big variable in all of this. this is a guy that has spent a ton of time and money, he has bet the farm of new hampshire.

if he doesn't pip nish in the top three, you know, not going to finish first but second or third, going to have to be a good number for him to continue on. >> i, for one, do not count ron paul. i just don't count him. he is a renegade lib tear yap who should not be counted in republican returns, he is just this joke that is sittingç the, a statistical screw up the middle of the puddle. so second, i don't know what he is going to do polling at second, third. so to me, it is what is huntman, the size of his vote, is he third, is he fourth, maybe he is fourth because of paul. absolutely in the second, third zone there somewhere. >> chris in manchester, you want to jump in here? >> lawrence, completely about his electability anything ever again. i do think there is something quantitative here. if you look at the republican party's hawkishness the last two cycles, i think it is beginning to fade dramatically. i think there is real war fatigue, not just in iowa, you will see it tonight, i think. look at these numbers now in our

exit polls, if you -- don't even go to the exit poll, just ask yourself, if you add up ron paul's number tonight, who is clearly anti-war with huntsman who says let's get the heck out of afghanistan and definitely let's not go to a trade war with china, you have perhaps up to 40-some, 45%, think 45% looking at it basically saying enough of this w stuff. enough of this machoman hawkishness around the world. we have had it with wars. i think that's significant. i don't know if it will continue down south, rachel, lawrence, the rest of you. i think if you get a sizable minority up here, half the voters voting for anti-war candidates that's a development, important one. >> i think when we saw -- ron paul has been running for president a very long time, i think the ron paul voters much less representative of the rest of the republican even electorate before this year, this year, i think there is some competition for ron paul voters among the other candidates, you obviously disagree. >> i don't think -- if you took actual republican voters out of the ron paul numbmr and said

these are the people who will reliably show up for the republican nominee, it is probably half of them. maybe less. >> i discount ron paul for -- i agree with lawrence, discounting him for different reasons, because i think where he is anti-war internationally, i don't think he is liberal or moderate in terms of domestic policy. and when we look at the issues that voters say they were concerned about, we need to see if it was the war or if it was the economy. we need to match what the voters are saying with -- with how they voted because the war is not a big factor in his vote, the anti-war positions were inflated. paul was anti-war but also for states rights, martin luther king's birthday, you can't make him just a liberal. if i'm going in there my mind is on the economy, don't say that i'm gonna vote for paul because i'm against the war, but i agree with all of his economic

policies and's what i'm thinking about. >> i do think for john huntsman -- sorry, chris. >> you go to a paul rally, totally anti-war, they know why they are there they don't like these wars a prominent perhaps overwhelming reason why they are with ron paul is because they hate these wars, it isn't just something they have overlooked, reverend, this is their issue and why they are paul. >> they are socially liberal, fiscally responsible and don't want to go overseas to war. where ron paul is growing, you got 18,000 votes the last time in new hampshire four years ago, he is growing in the young demographic. he got a good number of young voters in iowa. it looks like he is going to get a good number of young voters in new hampshire, sooner orç late the republican party should at least have a conversation with mr. paul about how are you getting all these young voters 'cause that is going to be important in the general. >> and how does a republican strategist answer that question? i mean, how do you look at the ron paul voters? >> i think to a large degree, what the -- what is animating ron paul voters is not reconcilable with whomever is

going tonight republican nominee and i think if you can't reconcile some of these positions. going back to john huntsman, i do think that tonight, he needs to finish in second place or be very, very, very close to second, almost a virtual tie between third and second. he wants to go into south carolina. what's important for those candidates not named is for to lose one of these first four contest and they are looking for a mitt romney loss in south carolina so i think what you will see jon huntsman do is spend his time on the coast in south carolina, fast-growing horry county which is myrtle beach, charleston, the key wa area, a lot of northeast traps plants from new york, new jersey, connecticut who have retired down there and if he is able to pull down mitt romney's margins there and you see the conservative base of the party reject romney's candidacy in the western part of the state and romney is delivered his first loss, on top of the mistakes he made this week which i think are the first substantive arguments,

right, that advance, he may not be as electable as we thought he is, right, that gives people motivation to keep the contest going down into the -- into the later winter and early spring. >> looking further than south carolina, no one has put the resources into florida the way romney has. right. >> so, he has put almost a $2 million buyç in there already. so it is that marathon run he is making is going to be tough to overcome for these other candidates. all these other candidates are looking to try to get this race to a binary choice, trying to get it down to mitt romney versus me. and they think they can take him on a one-on-one contest. you look at florida it is $1 million per week advertising state. mitt romney's been up there for a couple of weeks, no other candidate has the ability do that so far, but all of these candidates, for them, hope springs eternal, if they can narrow this down to a one-on-one protest between romney, they believe the money will come and believe they will be able to endure, maybe catch him in the later primaries. >> romney knocked down enough so

it looks like is there a potential alternative to him, the money will flow like water to the other candidate. in the next half an hour, hearing from tim pawlenty, former presidential candidate who got out early after the ames, iowa, straw poll, now supporting mitt romney. plus, former homeland security secretary tom ridge, backing john huntsman that is on the way. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the new hampshire primary. i'm rachel maddow out of new york city and this hour, we will talk to the surrogates from new ñ including former presidential candidate tim pawlenty, now supporting mitt romney and jon huntsman and tom ridge. back to chris. >> we got to remind ourselves tonight, we will be on a long time, all these candidates are coming out of the starting gate tonight this is the first primary. gingri gingrich ain't going nowhere except south, so is paul, romney, perry, santorum. ask but ron paul. arguing whether he is important or not. may not be important in terms of actually whipping this, but you have got some reporting on this >> the old terms, follow the money, ron paul raised $13 million the last quarter, the only person to raise more money was mitt romney. they are planning and hoping in

the first quarter of this year to raise perhaps $20 million. the ron paul campaign is already well organized in a lot of states down the road ahead. don't forget, only two campaigns filed enough petitions in and signatures to get in the ballot on virginia on super tuesday, mitt romney and ron paul. the anti-war message is strong that is number one. two the romney campaign was concerned enough about jon huntsman, i think in part also powered by the anti-war message as you were discussing. wrote about it in the "huffington post" the other day. concerned enough about huntsman they did three focus groups among independent voters in the end the last few days, they wanted to assess huntsman, assess the independent vote. and looking where are do they go on foreign policy? don't forget mitt romney moved way to the right on foreign policy 'cause that was sort of open ground for him. he couldn't do it on cultural issue, couldn'tç do it on big government issues wave the massachusetts moderate r >> there in the middle on the war? >> that's right. >> my favorite political

question, as you know, so what? so what if huntsman runs anti-war, bring the troops home from afghanistan? so what if ron paul says wasting money overseas, bring them home around the world. how is that going to affect the ultimate win, looks like romney, the nominee, a hawk, as you swharks is going to bring him back from being a hawk? >> i don't know anything will or can, in which case, barack obama no better than an even bet at this point appealing no to the ron paul but his voters. looking the these rallies, chris, you and i were at those rallies, kids at those rallies -- >> president obama? >> many for barack obama in 2008. obama did not deliver for them, they are looking for some way for somebody to deliver there is room for barack obama. >> we are getting out of iraq. they want more. if i were the president and people, i would listen to the anti-war crowd, say we are still with you, we are still your leader, right? because while romney is going to be making more and more commitments to right about bombing iran. >> especially as he goes south for super tuesday, chris. >> i don't want to think about the promises this crowd starts

to make, rach, about bombing iran and down to war. back to you, rachel maddow. >> chris and howard, thank you. joining us now is former minnesota governor tim pawlenty, who ran for the republican nomination, dropped out after the ames straw poll in iowa. governor pawlenty is now supporting mifrmt governor, good to see you. thanks for being with us. >> delighted to be with you, rachel and your colleagues there you guys are abnormally thoughtful tonight, subdued, not your normal hysterical selves. >> thoughtful abnormal by necessity when you look at us? >> i see that group, i seeç th group on the monitor, it is kind of like an abnormal star chamber. yes. >> i appreciate that. i take that as a compliment. i felt like i belonged in that bar in "star wars." cbs did a poll of republican primary voter, 58% of them said they wish there had were other people running for president that the crew that is running right now. what is most striking to me is that number has gone up 12% since october. what is it that republican

primary voters not getting, that they are not liking when they look at mitt romney and the rest of these nominees? >> well, i don't think you should read too much into that. when you have six or seven candidates running, it is hard for any one candidate to break out of the pack. the kind of polling results that you just indicated are pretty typical in the early sames of caucuses and primaries but what it's overlooking is this, mitt romney just unexpectedly won iowa. many people said he couldn't do that now he is poised tonight to whip new hampshire there's been no nonincumbent candidate for the nomination in the modern history of the country that's won those two states, he is ahead slightly in south carolina in the polls and in florida. you should look at that respectfully and say that is amazing, to have somebody in this stage of the process who whips both iowa and new hampshire, is leading in south carolina and florida instead of saying what's wrong with mitt romney, we should be saying he looks to be one of the strongest nominees with the most momentum in the modern history of the country. >> in terms of the message that mitt romney brings are as a front runner and you are right to describe him as an almost

prohibitive front require at this point, right now the polling going into tonight's results in new hampshire showed ron paul and john huntsman claiming about as much of the vote combined as mitt romney had. both of those candidates representing$ pretty strong anti-war message. jon huntsman saying woe get troops out of afghanistan very quickly, ron paul almost a purist isolationistsome there an anti-war message that mitt romney ought to be paying attention to among republican voters as represented by the huntsman and paul campaigns? >> well, within the republican party, there is a bit of a divide on war and defense and security issues. i would say ron paul and jon huntsman and some others represent one perspective, which is get the troops out, get them out now, buy into the obama argument about shrinking defense and security budgets. mitt romney and me and others represent other side of that argument, a legitimate debate, i have strong views on t mitt has strong views on it. i'm glad, by the way, that he is calling for re-establishing,

restoring defense spending at historic percentages of the economy, rebuilding our navy, committing to not letting iran have a nuclear weapon n my view, those are good things and i'm glad mitt is standing strong on those issues but ron paul and jon huntsman have a different view of t. >> governor pawlenty it is lawrence o'donnell here. what kind of windows the former governor of massachusetts have to have in new hampshire in the guy from massachusetts always whips new hampshire, michael due back cass, paul tsongas. paul tsongas got 33 over bill clinton at 24. just how high a number does mitt romney have to get to call it a real win there? >> well, winning these two states in a row is an historic victory no matter how you slice it whether he gets in let 30s, mid-30s or high 30s that is a tremendous victory, particularly this many candidates in the field. if mitt gets 30s, that  well done and on to south carolina. >> governor, al sharpton f mr. pawlenty gets a big margin

tonight or just whips decisively, you are right, the first time that you have had an iowa and new hampshire victory that didn't go on to get the nomination, but the question becomes will there be a leading conservative or group of conservatives that would join you all in saying the conservatives ought to pull out and unite the party and stop this bickering and really look like -- make the conservatives that stay in, gingrich has made a huge buy in south carolina and others, look like they are being destructive and going against the interests of the party. do you think that some of the party leaders' conservative side will begin starting the drumbeat to narrow this down to just letting romney win the nomination and planning his sights on president obama? >> well, al, they -- we have a democracy and people can run and stay in as long as they can or want to but the fact of the matter is conservative leaders have expressed that sentiment, the sentiment you just expressed for a long time and these

candidates have remained in the race and the premise that mitt romney suspect conservative is flawed. he cut taxes, cut spending, supported traditional marriage, he is pro-life, strong on defense to say he is not conservative is an incorrect premise. i would also add, compared to who? i mean if you want to have a contest about who is conservative and line up these other candidates in the republican nomination field, i know their record, you can go down every one of them and up in of them are perfect and neither is mitt. >> you are saying that mr. romney is as conservative as santorum and gingrich and rick perry? >> what i'm saying is you look at their records and they all have things that would make conservatives or some conservatives do a double take or wince. none of them have the conservative gold standard record. you can go through their backed grounds, their record, find all kinds of things i would say they are not conservative. compared to this field and generally, mitt romney is a conservative and importantly, led as a conservative and produced conservative results. is he a vulture capitalist?

>> you owe me different, ed, by the way. i don't know if i should be talking to you. >> you had to win three more seats in the midterm to owe you dinner. i would buy any way. i didn't vote for you in minneapolis, you are a pretty good guy. i got to ask you, your candidate has had a rough 48 hours. he is being call advil have you chur capitalist by governor rick perry. what about that? does that follow him? >> i watched your show last night, i had insomnia, stayed up late, i had nothing else to do i'd europed my shirts, brush my teeth, literally nothing else to do so i watched your show. and you took it out of context, like everybody else did. i was at that speech -- >> i didn't call him a vulture capitalist, governor perry did today, if you were paying attention at the show last night, you would have seen that part of it the fact is there is a conservative candidate in the republic republican refers to the guy you are supporting as a vulture capitalist. you should have caught that on the show, governor. >> let me say that the fact that republicans are making barack

obamas's and the democrats' argument criticizing private enterprise, buying into the premise that somehow the government can guarantee everybody's job forever that is the democrats' argument. we are in theç republican part for private enterprise, so i was disappointed in the speakers a comments and rick perry's comments and it was pivoting off a comment haw thank you know, i know you, ed, smart enough to have read the whole clip. >> i know how it is taken out of context. >> taken out of context. >> why did the republican candidates pick it up that way? i didn't pick it up. they are running for t not me. i'm just reporting what they are saying. they are exploiting it for a political gain and i think you need to be more responsible than that >> maybe they are being hysterical. >> maybe they are. maybe they are just -- >> governor tim pawlenty, thank you. i think that the breaking news here tonight is that when you get tired, you go to bed before 8 p.m. but we are not going to -- >> rachel, i want to make sure, ed owes me dipper and he is not paying and i'm a little ticked off about t. >> not paying.

>> now we know blue plate special, big guy. >> i have paid enough taxes under you in minnesota, i guarantee that. >> oh, man, man, oh, man, i thought you would be at least a good enough person to pay off your becamers, ed. >> you didn't win enough seats and the you know you didn't. >> governor pawlenty -- >> you are unbelievable. >> thank you, sir, hope to have you back soon. >> good night. good night. chris matthews is back with us from manchester. chris? >> you know, it's interesting, i'm going to go up to this with tom ridge now, but take -- tom ridge is former governor of pennsylvania, available now, supporting jon huntsman. i'm going to tee you up here, my friend, governor, because i'm so amazed at the amazing reality of american politics and gets worse every year. mitt romney never served in the military, up in of his kids did. newt gingrich never severed, as far as i know, his children haven't. whereas huntsman, you are a guy, you were a combat veteran inç vietnam, huntsman's got a couple kids in the service now, you guys are the moderates on war. these other flame letters to

out, they loft concept of war, as much as it doesn't affect their families. these guys are making irresistible, crazy biblical commitments about going to war with iran that are totally outrageous, nobody should be making these kind of commitments before an eelection, certainly during a political hot campaign and yet you and your guy and ron paul to his credit, are willing to say let's stop the war fever in this country. explain why the chicken hawks want to go to war with other people's children and the guys who haver is and the guys who have children serving are the moderates on war. why is it always so clear that way? >> well, i'm not sure it is quite as clear as you suggested, chris. >> sure seems that way. >> i'm only going to speak for my cappendidate and the man mos conservative, the map in this campaign i believe is the most electable, the man who has the best economic record, the man who meets all the qualification and characteristics that my friend tim pawlenty talked about and consistent throughout his entire career what governor

huntsman has said about our military and about our war and about afghanistan is smart, it's nuanced, it's thoughtful. what he said about afghanistan, and he is not anti-war, but said we have been at war for ten years. we have lost -- we have sacrificed a lot of blood and treasure. we need, in another year and a half, when he is president, he is going to draw down, leave special forces there leave some intel capability, some support troops but right now, after ten years, they need to police their own streets and they need to patrol their own borders, we will keep a crew there like we have done in other parts of the world but bring most of the troops home. i think that'wç smart it is reflective of what needs to be done, because he sees other threats potential any other parts of the world w regard to the military, and i appreciate you giving me a little extra time on this, chris, people talk about weapons systems and numbers. he is the only presidential candidate that says before you talk about both, it's the 21st century. what are the threats? what are the areas of concern and then let's worry about weapons systems and numbers. governor it is worse than that

here is the problem, your party on its right always seems to have a war in the on-deck circle and not just the far-out crazy neo.does, something about your party that has to have a war cooking somewhere, either afghanistan or iraq or it's libya and there you got -- got this ranting, constantly talk about in biblical terms like we have to do it for some armageddon reason. we have to face this down. what is it that wants war in your party? that seems to want to have a war always ready to go? >> well, chris, i don't think that's fair characterization. >> well, when is the last time they haven't had one? haven't wanted one? >> there have been some real hyperbole in that characterization, chris. >> went to iraq went down to panama, they went -- bush -- reagan, grenada, this guy, all your candidates talking about going to iran what is it? always what's next. always one they want to cook up. maybe i'm overstating it but it's a fact. >> i do think you are overstating it, chris, but the bottom line is all the candidates understand, perhaps

more than the president and current administration that the greatest threat to stability not only in the middle east but around the world is iran. a nuclear iran, changes the balance of power in many, many ways, so the fact that when they are interviewed, including governor huntsman, everybody else what is theç greatest threat, they point to iran, do they take the military option off the table, they do not, neither does governor huntsman, tend of the day one of the differences between all of the candidates and governor huntsman, he has lived in e diplomatic world, lived in the international world and understands the greatest on at this time, i'm threats, military, geopolitical, as well as economic, not in the middle east, keep your attention and focus on iran for military reasons but other threats a on types in other parts of the world there is a sophistication there that i'm afraid, jon is a very civil and respectful as he makes his appeal to these order bus at the end of the day, they have to listen carefullism he is the only one who appreciate the global impact of our military, not only on world affairs, but how we have to deal with it as a

country. >> governor, you made your point, sophisticated foreign policy as opposed to a biblical one. thank you, rachel. >> thank you, chris. and thank you, governor ridge, fascinating. we get to get our first significant returns from new hampshire in the next hour. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment. stay here.

welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the new hampshire primary. it is just past 7:00 eastern time and polls are now just closed in some parts of new hampshire. you will start seeing some results on the bottom of your screen because most of those polls have closed. however, not all polling places in the state have closed. some remain open for the next hour. so we can't be characterizing the race at all until then, until all of the polls close at 8:00. but you will start to see some results coming in and that's in the fine print down below my chin. see? all right, in a moment, getting more from our exit polling in new hampshire, learning who turned out today and what was important to them and looking into the man behind newt gingrich's $5 million boost.

apparently, he is ready to spend a whole lot more than that against president obama in the general election. he is trying to be a one-man game changer. newt gingrich's campaign has been give than new life because of this $5 million infusion from casino mag nat sheldon aidleson is his name. he cannot give that kind of money to newt gingrich's campaign directly. he can only give $5,000 to newt gingrich's campaign directly but to these dark money super pacs, the sky's the limit. more on sheldon aidleson, his $5 million donation and plans throughout the campaign, we are joined by nbc news national investigatived correspondent, michael isikoff. mike? >> good evening, rachel this donation by aidleson, which people have confirmed, is the largest known donation yet to a super pac in this presidential cycle, $5 million. and it dramatically illustrates whatç this whole super pac phenomenon is all about and why it is so controversial.

one guy, the eighth richest american, according to "forbes" magazine, worth $8 billion, giving $5 million to one committee that is backing newt gingrich to run an ad campaign in south carolina a, attack ads against mitt romney. what's happening here and with the whole super pac is turning our campaign finance laws on its head, according to critics. the idea of limits was to limit the power of one individual, to influence a presidential election. here, we have a guy, a billionaire, with his own economic interests, casino, worldwide casino empire, who can give unlimited amounts thanks to the super pac phenomenon, as a result of the citizens united decision and what's especially ironic about it is adelson made

his name in las vegas being an anti-union guy, fighting the labor unions, opening up casinos las vegas that are nonunion casinos and he is running an ad campaign, financing an ad campaign against mitt romney over bain capital featuring the workers who had their -- who lost their jobs and are aggrieved weaver bain capital did. itç is a story rich with irony. >> michael isikoff, thank you. i think this proceeds forward into the race in two different ways. number one, does anybody believe that newt gingrich would still be a factor at all right now if he had not just gotten a $5 million check? and if that is the thing that's keeping newt gingrich in the race, does shield.adelson's history, past, interests, potential conflicts of interests, then become the defining factor in terms of how

we assess newt gingrich? do we have to look at newt gingrich and see a casino billionaire behind him and start pretending as if these the guy running, 'cause effectively he is? >> team romney is going to want to talk about where that money came from, if they can. it depends on how many casino investments bain made under mitt romney. so r so, is casino money better than the bay money? we will have to find out what main is up to. >> i tell you, they are putting this money to work. in this 28-minute film, they are describing mitt romney as a financier more ruthless than wall street. that's where this money is going to. the other thing is they are hitting him on an abortion ad and hitting mitt romney on his abortion record. these are the ads that will be up you make that argument, because newt gingrich isn't in a position to raise that kind of money. >> because of that, would newt gingrich be a nonentity in the

race now? >> i don't think newt gingrich is going to get a significant vote tonight. the real battle is going to be south carolina only because it had money< the reason it will be a bat, we bought so much time, don't know bain yet, bain the last few day it happens sank in it will sank in with all of this ad buy that is going to happen in south carolina that's where we know bay out of south carolina, mitt romney, all of us say yes, he wins new hampshire significantly, iowa, unprecedented, what's going to face in terms of an ad buy in south carolina is unprecedented women don't know what holds up because of the citizens united decision. the other thing if i'm advising the president, i would say look at steps united, do you want these guys pick the next supreme

court justice? because this is just the beginning of these kinds of decision and i don't know anti-war as one may be, and i am, i do really want ron paul picking the next supreme court justice? >> don't worry about that not going to happen. >> look at newt gingrich's candidacy from thanksgiving forward, remarkable what a destructive force he has become in the republican primary, if you are in favor of a republican candidate getting elected in november. his campaign has become entirely about revenge, entirely about the dysfunctions that seem to trail him like a political version of the old "peanuts'" character pigpen. and he is right now barack obama's best friend in this race. framing and advancing arguments going to be jammed down the throat obúáhe republican nominee in november. i think you have a really clear understanding why you have so many people around newt gingrich

the entirety of his career supporting other people in this race. just remarkable to watch. >> die by the sword, live by the sword, i invert that on purpose. the only reason newt gingrich's surge in iowa got cut short is all the dark money attacks mitt romney threw at him in his pacs and newt gingrich says you going to destroy me? i will destroy you back. >> not a single unfair attack was launched on newt gingrich in iowa. it was all true. and choose to spend an entire career talking about the value of the free enterprise system is now aping exactly the rhetoric of the democratic party and the president. >> off company in south carolina a victim of bain. you don't think that is going to ring true in south carolina? >> i think, reverend al this is how the free enterprise system functions and republican candidates -- i think the democratic attacks i think your view on this i think is well known and predictable. republican candidates have to defend the free enterprise

system here. republican candidates snoid better what newt gingrich and rick perry are engaged in is pure and simple demagoguery and ought to know better and hurt the chances against barack obama in november. >> newt gingrich is making the case that vulture capitalism is a real thing, that republicans really know it, they just don't want to tell you about t that is the case he is taking now. that is the difference between going in investing in a company, growing, going in cutting jobs, taking retirement, cutting benefits and a few people

>> when you have the people that lost their job, i have had them on my show, standing up there saying no i'm not against free enterprise, they laid me off, fired me, they took my job, laid me off without doing that that is going to resonate with republicans or democrat. he did ads in iowa. you reap what you sow. we are going to sit back and watch t as far as being predictable, i'm to buy some

popcorn. >> i know this makes you happy and no doubt, i see the president with his putter in his happened up in the residence with a big smile on hisç face watching this. democrats are golfers, here we go. >> the fact of the matter is newt gingrich is playing an increasingly destructive role. >> true. >> if your goal is to elect a republican president in november. this is somebody who stood up in the debates and said i'm going to run a positive campaign. that he is are all of my friends and any one of my friends is better than the president. and he is now indistinguishable, from rhetorical perspective what comes out of the mouth of any of the administration's top surrogates. >> newt gingrich is saying all he is doing is talking about his record, his record in the private sector. mitt gets up there and acts to the other candidates, you guys haven't done anything in life, i'm the one been in the private sector and i think worked over some of these guys a little bit. now mitt -- newt's coming back and just going at his record is. that negative? >> i -- i -- i think that there -- if you want to go and

criticize bain capital and the records and free enterprise system, that's fine. my point is guys like rick perry and newt gingrich who have spent a career in defense of that free enterprise should know better that to go out and demagog it and that's what -- exactly what they are doing here. >> bring in chris from manchester. >> steve, nothing to do with bain capital or your theories or capitalism or newt gingrich's this is a gay who was down and out, killed by an incredible advertising campaign by the super pacs of mitt romney out in iowa and he is coming back for revenge. and look how he has done it. he is playing the game living off the land. basically, he heard about this documentary that has been running against bain and he has grabbed hold of it he has taken a piece of that for an ad campaign to be used by so-called independent -- super pac down in south carolina. he went down and fluffed up sheldon adelson with a lot of fear takç probably about the coming on of ron paul taking over the republican parties and nonsense about that to get the -- shake look the $5 million from adelson, probably keep

shaking loose, watch newt the next couple of weeks, every once in a while take a shot at ron paul and his isolationism, keep adelson's money pouring in the door. this is a perfect storm here and still in this campaign because he found some material in this documentary, he found some money and got in -- coughed it out of adelson and get more from adelson and then also found anger. and anger is newt's engine right now. it is the engyp that is going to keep him in this race for months. he is the worst thing that's ever happened to mitt romney because he is willing to fight him to the death and he has got the tools now to do it. he has got an angry guy out there afraid of the middle east situation. adelson will spend money for the guy, a really good documentary cam put together against bain capital and most importantly, his anger and keep fighting this guy until he breaks down mitt romney or dies doing it. this is going to be great theater. it has got nothing to do with theories of capitalism, as you know, steve schmidt, while you are out defending your fill loss, if i it has got nothing do with that, it has got to do with

vengeance and going to be great to watch. >> let me bring in our nbc news political director chuck todd who has just interviewed newt gingrich on this very subject. chuck? >> i did. and a few things i asked him in particular, this idea that you know, you're sounding like a democratic talking point, sounding like president obama and he made a morality argument. first of all, he said, number one, i don't want any government regulation of what bay did. he was making the argument to me that was bay basically -- it maybe immoral in some of the things that he did and what he is trying to do,ç the strategically behind this, revenge, he wants to admit, all running a positive campaign, i was ahead, mitt romney chose to go down the road he went down, there for example give down this road. the second thing he pointed out there are two divides inside the republican party that he believes that he has got to take advantage of.

one is moderate versus conservative, the second is what we thought wouldn't get lost but did get lost, tea party versus establishment. he called it elitism versus populism. he is making a populism play because he is belives in particular, next two states, hardest hit economically, florida, huge foreclosures issues in this, he said the tea party was upset, not just big government, not just about big unions but big banks. he is trying to use bain and use this as a way to draw a line there and become the candidate of the tea party. i implied, i said is this the kind of camp sarah palin would have runs, he got the endorse.of todd page, he didn't want to go down that road, but did he say -- i'm -- i came from a mild class background. he started talking about that i think we are seeing a shift here. it was all about the real conservative versus the moderate in iowa and even the first half of this week. now the traction he believes he has found, yeah little bit of

revenge going on here but trying to see if he can channel tea party, is trying to see if he can channel conservative populism. let's remember, new hampshire is an outlier this is not a republican electorate that we are going to see again in a primary perhaps untilç californa or hawaii. the next four primaries, south carolina, florida, arizona, michigan, we have four primaries in the next six weeks, some caucuses in there, too, all going to be much more conservative electorates and all going to be electorates with much more that have been feeling economic pain and that's why gingrich thinks this might be a road worth traveling because it really may hurt romney. >> chuck, thank you. i think that the point on populism is absolutely right. i think on the left and on the right, populism is the most underappreciated dynamic within the beltway. it works in elections and nobody in washington ever think also it's gonna but always and over and over again it does, both on the left and the right. all right, when we return, more from our exit polling, plus the moderator of "meet the press," david gregory, will be joining us. and the first results from new

hampshire are coming n the polls close across the state at 8:00 eastern, 45 minutes from now. when we will have our first characterization of the race tonight. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

thanks for being with us here on msnbc as he cover the new hampshire primary. we are about 40 minutes away from polls closing statewide in new hampshire. obviously, mitt romney having won in iowa, is looking to whip in new hampshire. tim pawlenty, a surrogate, have not previously seep a republican nominee win in iowa and then win in new hampshire. would that make mitt romney the prohibitive favorite moving forward in difficult states like south carolina and florida?

yet to be seen. more numbers from our exit polling, for that, we turn to cam rip hall. tam rip? >> a state with a motto live free or die no surprise that the tea party isç popular in new hampshire. a little more than half the republicans we talked to today said they support the tea party with about a third neutral and just 18% opposed. and that lines up pretty well the way new hampshire voters identify themselves ideologically. 54% say they are conservatives, 34% moderate and 12% are liberal. we asked which way voters leap when it comes to separate sets of issues, social and economic. there you have it. new hampshire, voters more conservative when it comes to fiscal issues, taxes and spending, than social issues, like abortion and gay marriage. take a look at the numbers. two-thirds call themselves fiscal conservative.

now, take a look at this number. roughly the same number of voters call themselves moderate on social or fiscal issues, three in ten in each case. even in this republican primary, 30% said they are liberal on social issues, the big 30 there a third of new hampshire republican primary voters consider themselves both fiscal copper is vat it was and social moderates or liberals. we will see how the cross current play out in new hampshire. >> 60% of new hampshire primary voters calling themselves moderate or liberal on social issues. how does that play with a rick santorum candidacy? go to new hampshire and chris matthews. >> thanks, rachel.ç david gregory, moderate over "meet the press," no doubt so farther most exciting debait in the entire campaign. we have been skipping over the

elephant in the room, mitt romney's very success campaign and the polling coming in today. look what's wing on substance here, the economy, number one, mitt's strong suit, at least to the next 48 house, ability to win to the general leeks, all the polling we have seen until now says he is the best kaptd dat to run. you take await racing stripes of the other candidates, exciting factors about him, he is going into the mother lode of where the votes are. >> how much pest cism is in the country? dissatisfaction with the country and disapproval certainly among republicans about president obama, even states he carried in 2008 who can beat president obama? got to come back to that like you said you most important issue, that still comes back to mitt romney. he talks about i can run a national campaign, get on all the ballot, more and more governors,s of the conservative breaking for him, if he has the kind of night he expects

tonight, talking to republicans say more of up that locks for him, perhaps more governors come out and endorse him, more members of congress, more fund raisi raising. he will need t he will be on the defensive. >> rick santorum, rachel mentioned, he came out here full bore social conservative, talking about things from the 60s like contraception, the old griswold decision, suggests that he would support the constitutional right to outlaw contraceptives. did that scare people away from any conservative base? >> didn't follow the message he came out of iowa with which wasn't just about family values, that was a big piece of it but about restoring manufacturing in this country for an economic recovery. it was a direct appeal to say romney is going to play well upper income republicans, i got a shot here, working class. he got diluted here, off track,

see how that ends up playing. >> do you think huntman made a mistake thinking you could run in new hampshire and not in the country? new hampshire is very aware it is the first primary. it has a national responsibility like iowa and maybe we don't know until we see the numbers, i don't know that is something anybody tried before, i will skip the country, not going anywhere in the 49 state bus go here without new hampshire noticing that and saying wait a minute, we respect going to waste our vote? >> the last couple of days particularly, he has found exactly the right pitch for new hampshire, if he can do well here, he can take that on the road and make more of a national campai campaign. >> have to know if the small leads to the big or the big to the small. back to you, rachel. >> thank you, chris, david. polls set to close statewide in new hampshire, at the top of this hour, over half an hour from now we will be back with our panel. msnbc's could have aren't of the new hampshire primary tops cont in just a moment.

welcome back to msnbc's live could have ram of the new hampshire primary it has been a rough couple of days for mitt romney. he has got this giant lead in the polls, which is great, but his rivals have finally started hitting hip and hitting him hard. one comment that got him a lot of heat this week was when he said he liked to fire people. to be clear, he was talking about insurance companies, the pleasure he takes in firing insurance companies,ç but his rivals were quick to use his words against him, maybe even quicker that the democrats would have been. here he is. i want individual was to their own insurance that means the insurance company will have an incentive to keep you healthy it also means if you don't like what they do, you can fire them. i like being able to fire people that provide services to me. if -- you know if someone doesn't give me the good service i need, i want to say i'm going to go get someone else to

provide that service to me. >> here's my question. is mitt romney a guy who makes mistakes when people sling mud at him? >> owes a guy who makes mistakes when he is not reciting memorized material that's why this is the candidate who actually recites passables of "america the beautiful." i was at his sunday night rally in exeter, new hampshire. there is no original statement made in a romney rally, not one. he actually is so weak without the memorized material that they had chris christie be the real speaker. romney went first, are christie went second. the guy is dangerous without a teleprompter and if he is allowed to extemporize in anyway, this is going to happen repeatedly. >> do you think that's because he says what he thinks and what he thinks is inpolitic like corporations are people or does he say thing he is doesn't mean to say? >> it is a combination. this is a perfect example it is what he thinks and this

desperation to please. where was he saying that? at a chamber of commerce lunch that's where he was saying that, to a group of guys, all of whom have fired people at some point in time of course they are going to understand this and makes them feel good about having fired people. it is thatruj please in that room. >> what i find amazing is that he has been around the media a long time. how could he not know that that one could be parcelled out quickly, he didn't even double back to clarify himself anymore. he should have had a little bit better media savvy on that the other thing is the republican party loves to tell the american people they have a long on the market when it comes to small business that small business is the backbone of the american economy. everybody in small business goes through anguishing moments they have to let somebody go couple that with the kind of economy we have had to deal with since early in 2009 a lot of people

lost their job, not a pro-poe to the moment or the climate in the country now. he should have been smarter than that >> trying to make a free enterprise point, right? trying to say we have to have flexibility to get rid of people, we need an anti-statist economy and a way to have doing things. trying to make a capitalist point, right? >> even though it was out of context, it is a qual tatetive difference in saying we have to be flexible and saying i like firing people. i mean, the problem with the statemency like t and he not only agree with lawrence about the media savvy not there very robotic, the political instinct is not there if bain is under fire, the last thing you should say -- even if you slip it you correct t where is his instanbts, where is he going to be on a debate platform with

barack obama if he can't think on his feet when he is the only one talking? imagine if he is fatesing somebody? >> it was a very clumsy statement. this is an unforgiving business, you don't get to turn the ball over like that too many times in a presidential campaign until you lose. if in the category of i voted for it before i voted against it, it is in the category of the fundamentals of the economy are strong. it's that type of comment toe wrong moment in a campaign that could determine the outcome, those types of comments and accumulation of them now for governor romney that starts to raise real questions the electability issue, that has held solid for governor romney a few more of those types of mistakes, this process, a ways to go people will start to look and start to put merit into his opponent's arguments that say in fact, he is not the most electable person up on the stage. that is not the type of mistake you want to make.

it is the type of mistake he will come back and take a while to wig out of. this is a business where you have to be focus and displipd every second of every minute of every day. and it was an inexplicable fumble on his part. >> did these republican candidates could what ronald reagan never would have done. love to quote reagan. he is their guy. would he have gone out and said, hey, mitt romney likes it fire people. would ronald real van said that or would he have backed off and let that one go by? what do you think? >> i think he would have let it go by but the bottom line for romney, and i thinkç part of t problem with the comment, people who fire people. most people who fire people don't like firing people t is an up pleasant experience. to say it with a sort of glee, i like to fire people when you are being caricatured and distorted though it may be, it is not an ineffective attack answered happened the ball over to the other side on this. >> if mitt romney loses electability, he does not have

much to stand on, there isn't very much innate in him that the republican electorate seems to like. there's -- all of the other candidates can sort of compete on the same ground as he can, if he suspect seen as the most elect able candidate, you are right, the only way he becomes unelectable if the caricature is being something he is going to live up to and something that makes people want to vote for barack obama over him s that true, him being a richie rich vulture capitalist caricature something to overcome in the general? >> what suspect the caricature is the $10,000 bet beth and the lie fyke firing people that is where it is punctured. rick perry's first debate, oh oh, wait a minute, can't send him out on the debate stage, never mind his second debate you oops and all of that so, this being categorized in that state of the oops and this is what happens. it is an absolute gar werety that romney will do this more that once a month and in the jeep election, do it more

frequently than now because embe off script more frequently. >> you got remember, tonight you started the 6:00 hour with the right, if i was framing a commercial, i would say barack obama in 2008 lost this primary in new hampshire and we remember, this the line was, yes we can. romney won, the line was,ç i le firing people. unless he can make a great speech tonight, that's the line he is coming out of new hampshire being remembered for. >> i think the last thing any candidate wants to be nope for is firing people as part of your business culture. they all want to be job creators, build businesses and one sentence like that can haunt him through it all. this will stay with him, they will keep using it against him. >> all the polls in new hampshire will be po close ted top of the hour. seeing significant results conning in from polling places that are already closed, some places closed at 7:00, some places closed at 8:00. the reason we have got 4% in you

is new is places that closed 36 minutes ago. 4% in, romney in the lead, 37%, ron paul, second, 24%, jon huntsman in third at 15%. again, this is just 4% of the vote in thus far. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary will continue after this.

all polls will close in new hampshire at 8:00 eastern, but a

large number of polls across the state closed earlier, at 7 p.m., about 40 minutes ago. right now, with 4% of the vote in mitt romney in the lead with 37% of the vote. ron paul with 24% of the vote. in second place, jon huntsman, 14%. ]árñ rick santorum polling fifth right now with 10% and rick perry straggling at 1%. right now let go back to chris matthews who is in manchester, new hampshire. >> thank you, rachel. we are back with michael steele, of course, gene robinson, both gentlemen up here with me most of the last week right now. thank you for joining us. you know, i think this whole question, i want to ask you as a republican, the way republicans see what we have been talking about and hear it differently, many of our progressive viewers may look at things differently, when they hear -- your people, republicans hear that somebody said something like i like the ability to be able to fire people, i like the ability to be able to fire, do they hear

something different than say a democrat hears? >> it depends the context what you are talking b. >> how? firing insurance companies, firing other people, firing doctors, firing -- who you deal with. >> part of the ongoing management of any business concern. you have to make hard decision and choices which critics around the country argue government has not made the last 10, 15, 20 or so years. certainly, you look at the fact the u.s. senate under the democratic leadership hasn't even passed a budge net over 900 days. that is the kind of incompetency people are concerned about. when you have a leader, whether the ceo of a company or political leader says i'm willing to make the hard choices, that resonate, so yeah, you know, the progressives who like to take at the base level, you want to fire somebody and put them out of work, republicans, conservatives see that as part of the efficiencies of the marketplace. yeah, people lose their jobs it is not a good thing, don't sit around, not a party afterward, no one is --

>> what about act like it is a business concern y make that decision? >> what about the reagan democrats who became a big part of the base of the republican party not the country club republican party. >> this is not about country club republicans. >> i'm asking seriously, what do those people hear when they hear -- >> that is why they are part of that coalition because they are part of a party that understands that -- understands that at the base level you have got to make some hard decision sometimes as opposed to putting it off. >> why do newt gingrich, rick per rained others think it is a good idea to bring this to the attention of republicans. they obviously think some of the republican party will react in a different way, not going to understand, is gonna think there's something wrong with this guy. something unfeeling. >> ask you. >> no, no, curious.

it just seems to me that there -- there are two different ways that distinct republicans might look. >> i like being able to fire people. >> i'm not going to argue about the way he said it i think he could be more articulate about the way he said it >> how should he have said it? >> you made the point you have to make tough choices in business, in life, in politics this government has not made those tough choices, they have not focus on the employment situation as they said they would. they have not focused on -- that's how you begin to frame it when you put it the way he put it, yeah, easy to pick it throw a dart, that's how they are, that's not how we are, we are small business owners, we are employees, we are employers. that is a ray.ç >> a difference between saying i like to decide which gas station to stop at, which toothpaste to buy, bread to buy, different than saying i like being able to decide when to fire somebody. >> but chris, you understand in

the context what he is saying, i like to be able to control the decisions that impact me? >> you know what you know what gene's talks about you are the columnist you can the man with words, talking cloth-coat republicans versus mink-coat republicans. the cloth-cut republican, a guy, maybe a small business owner or maybe just a worker, a regular guy, hears firing and that's bad. >> no he doesn't, because he is a small business opener, he has to make that choice at some point. >> okay. we got go back to rachel this is going to be an argument which i will continue through the evening, i'm sure. >> i got to say if you are a small business owner who has to make a decision to fire somebody, if as a small business opener you like the way that feels to fire somebody, i don't care if you're ayn rand, still a creepy thing. >> not creepy. focusing on the word like and the point is he is not going -- >> his word. >> and celebrate. i wouldn't have put it that way. what i would have said sthaurkt control he likes to have as a business owner and as an

individual to make those kinds of decision. if you are not getting the job done, i want to be able to do something about it. >> i -- >> as opposed to what our government does, let it build into something more mammoth and up controllable till we get to this point where we have $15 trillion worth of debt because people have not paid attention. >> if that is true, that means he is locking up the votes. he is locking up the votes of the handful of people in america who after the wall street crash were really psyched that those aig people were still gonna get their bonuses. if there wereç five people in america who believe that mitt romney has now locked up their vote in new hampshire with their i love firing people. >> who was the guy who said, the new york athletic club of old who said i like the working man, i like to see him work. >> in all seriousness though, chris, the reason that we are talking about this at all isn't just that mitt romney made this gaffe, it's that it's a gaffe that tends to confirm either an image or a caricature of mitt romney that's already in the

consciousness. >> i agree with it. that's why i say it is inarticulate. >> goes with the whole vulture capitalism x. >> goes along with the vulture capitalism. >> vulture capitalism. >> lordy. >> let bring into this discussion nbc's andrea mitchell also with us from manchester. andrea has been looking into the super pacs, the super pacs working sort of opinion on behalf of the mitt romney campaign were part of what destroyed newt gingrich upon him surging in iowa. we are seeing a sort of very verse of that promise from super pac supporting ne gingrich toward mitt romney looking ahead in south carolina. andrea? >> in fact, one of the things, rachel, you see in the exit polls, voters asked who do you think ran the most unfair campaign, prettile evenly divided in the exit polls between mitt romney and newt gingrich. so people are paying attention to this whole argument about the negativity of the super pacs, but the real interesting thing coming out of here, whoever comes in second or third shows a

good showing, the importance of that is not just bragging rights because the people going to be watching this are the money people. the key supports who are putting money into those super pacz for money top put up for south carolina and most importantly, for florida. and rachel, the people watching are going to be jon huntsman's father, the billionaire, self-made man who put up the money for his super pac. soer if a, john huntsman's super pac only spent $50,000 pledged to south carolina. the question is how well is he going to do tonight and is his father going to keep bankrolling him going forward in the other person is newt gingrich. sheldon adelson from nevada, the casino -- the millionaire, billionaire, whatever casino opener, big mogul there, has pledged $5 million but so far, they have only put up $1.6 million on ad buys in south carolina. romney is going to have all the money he wants. but newt gingrich has to see whether sheldon adelson wants to keep bankrolling him and see if they are going to put money up

in florida. so far, up in of them have, except mitt romney and rick santorum only has $164,000 on the boards in south carolina. as i say, nothing for florida. florida's really expensive. and the big question is going to be who is going to have enough of a showing tonight, second or third place winners if they are closely tied, closely bunched up to say to their financial supporters, stay with us. rachel? >> andrea, let me ask you, obviously, we are all looking at second, third and fourth place finishers tonight to look at who can put together enough of a campaign, braedly defined, to capitalize on a strong finish like that in new hampshire? part of that is whether they have got campaign staffers, we can look at that in the way we traditionally v because the super pacs can be funded by just one person, whether he is somebody's dad, is there anybody -- isç there any predi ability to whether or not a candidate will be able to lock up dark money? is it just a quark of individual

billionaires who will move forward with super pac funding? it is a quirk but million billionaires money by being smart about money? jon huntsman's father might not want to keep putting money in if he believes this is not going anywhere, that is another reason why huntsman needs a good showing within the family, his father has not put that much money on the table, especially going forward in south carolina, this was a one-state campaign, and he has everything banked and bet on this. that is exactly the game changer, rachel. these super pacs raise money without any disclosure in real time, no transparency, they can raise unlimited amounts of money. this is a real impact of citizens united, the supreme court decision, the first campaign we're seeing it, and the pacs have changed the way everyone is doing business in the campaign. >> thank you, andrea mitchell, appreciate that. amazing when you think about if a billionaire were truly

motivated, sheldon adelson, 8th richest man in the world, $25 million, what if he decided to drop hundreds of millions of dollars, he's an older guy, what if he decided this is a priority. we're at the mercy of quirks of individual billionaires in terms of who they would like to be press dechblt. we'll have the race, the coverage will continue after this.

10% in, mitt romney in the lead, ron paul at 25, jon huntsman at 16. reverend al sharpton you were saying if romney wins tonight you think the legacy of2the new hampshire primary will be him saying i like to fire people. >> unless he can come with great

speech tonight, and unless they hired a new speech writer, i don't know what happens, because he would have to read. the fact is i think chris had it right, they are quoting him when they say he said i'd like to be able to fire people. he didn't say that. he said i like firing people. and liking to actually execute it. i think that is a statement that will haunt him as it's played over and over again with gingrich, in south carolina where you have people that have lost their jobs to him, and i think the key is going to be can they slow him down tonight, he'll win, can he win with a little lower expectation and stop him in south carolina? if not, he's the nominee and he will bring baggage in. >> when he said corporations are people, his campaign tried to turn that around in a positive, they made that in an ad, is there any way they can do that with us? >> no. >> there is no redeemable --. >> the other thing, he's talking

about the insurance companies, right? who gets a break from the insurance companies in this country when it comes to health care? you go from one company to the next you're getting gouged in the minds of the american people. >> the more they talk about the context the worst it gets. >> that's right. >> they have to put it down the memory hall. >> don't bring this up on the rubber chicken circuit again. get done with it and put -- the other thing romney has to deal with is this abortion ad they have taken out it's clear flip-flop statements of total contrast, they will put a ton of money in that. >> they knew that was coming they think they have an answer to that. i think they had no anticipation their candidate would say i like to fire people. polls close in new hampshire at the top of the hour, we'll have first characterization of the race tonight when we return, this is very exciting, msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in a moment. please stay with us.

. > . it's 8:00 on the east coast, polls are closed. nbc news can protect when votes are counted mitt romney will win the new hampshire primary. ron paul leads jon huntsman for second place. newt gingrich and rick santorum trail. but again it's mitt romney the projected winner in new hampshire. of course that is not a great surprise tonight, we'll watch over the course of the night to see what his margin is and also see what happens with the candidates coming in further

down the run. let's go back to chris matthews in manchester. >> this is big news in terms of headlines writers, now they they will report for the papers and social media. here is the news, a first time a republican has won in iowa and new hampshire, this is fire power, this is the daily double as far as republican politics is concerned. people pointed out earlier big money will pour in, people will make bets, members of the united states senate on the republican side and house side of the republican party will start placing endorsements out there quickly. this is serious business. i want to point out one thing here, the quote fromç mitt romy and it's very controversial line, i like being able to fire people, that is the quote he's guilty of and will haunt him. i want to thank my people for getting that fact. but this is the big news story, everybody, winning two, the first two, will be very hard for someone to come back from.

rachel in. >> joining us is john sununu, also served as white house chief of staff to the first president bush, he is supported mitt romney for president. good evening, congratulations, governor, nice to have you here. >> well it's going to be -- a good evening for the governor, he worked awfully hard, he campaigned new hampshire-style, he knocked on doors, distributed literature, and made phone calls himself and the folks up here like that. >> in terms of the effect of tonight's win on the rest of the race, is it the opinion of the romney campaign other candidates should get out of the way now, this should be a process that the field should narrow and the republican electorate should coalesce around governor romney? >> they want that to happen at some point. they are smart enough to know this is a long slot. all he wants to do is move in south carolina, and do what he

has to do down there, to match what he has accomplished in iowa and new hampshire. this is under the new rules, going to take a little longer than usual, he's willing to do it, he knows he has to work hard, he knows he has to put the -- keep the team together and just keep going there. i think it will take longer than the media might think. >> governor, in terms of the tone of the attacks that governor çromney's rivals directed against him in these last few days, we've seen it taking sharply populous tone, we've seen the governor describe it as a vulture capitalist, tenure at bain described as something bad for the country and immoral. what is your reaction to those, do you think that sets him up poorly for the rest of the race and potentially running against president barack obama? >> no, i think the attacks you're getting out of mitt romney -- getting against mitt romney by those opponents will come back and hurt them.

i think you're seeing that already in responses for mitt romney by national review, by the club for growth and so on. they are pointing out if gingrich and others have that perspective what are they doing in a republican republican primary. >> mr. sununu, this is ed schultz, according to the tax policy center, the gentleman who is projected to win tonight in new hampshire, mitt romney, he would raise taxes on people in this country, making $40,000 or less and a millionaire would see taxes drop by 5%. is that going to be in your opinion a hard sell in this country or is that something that is he going to stick with that tax plan and move forward with it? >> where did that come from? >> it came from according to the tax policy center, that went through his tax policy and they came out and said that romney's tax plan would increase taxes

for families making less than ç $40,000, and a millionaire will see his taxes drop by 5%. do you think that is --. >> i think that is strange. i think that is kind of strange when the governor has made it clear he's not cutting taxes on the upper brackets, that he is cutting taxes on the hard-earning taxpayers in the middle and that he is committed to lowering taxes across the board. with all due respect there is a technical term for that, a crock of crap. >> governor sununu, you saw your candidate george hw bush come in new hampshire, win the primary with 53% of the vote, a much, much higher percentage than anyone projected? >> who won it? >> george hb. >> you don't know what you're

talking about. >> in 1991. >> i'm sorry, in 1988 he won it 38-29. >> 1992, 1992. he then went on to lose the general election, is there something --. >> as an incumbent. >> that's right. >> he was a more powerful candidate in new hampshire than mitt romney was tonight, he then went on to lose the general election. >> you're really funny. >> i'm asking you --. >> you can't resist, you really can't resist it, can you? george herbert walker bush came in 1992 as an incumbent republican president. of course he got over 50%. now, i do realize that he also lost when ross perot came in as aç third party candidate. i see no parallel in the primary. i see no parallel in the general, and i think you're grasping at straws. >> you got to my question and i thank you, i was going to ask you is that kind of strong

finish that president bush had in new hampshire, and then the collapse in the general, is there something in the romney candidacy you see will predict for you a different outcome? >> yeah, the romney candidaccan won in iowa, he won here, he's running a fully challenged primary and putting wins together, he's prepared to go through the whole process, pick up the delegates and go forward. romney has one advantage that george bush didn't have, mitt romney is running against an absolutely incompetent president, ruined the country's economy, hasn't done anything to save jobs and only going to try and run by attacking romney instead of standing on his record. but i think mitt romney is the one candidate that can withstand that kind of campaign. >> chris matthews? >> let me ask you about the times in his life he feared getting a pink slip, feared

getting fired. when would that have been, can you locate that period in his life when he feared to be a victim of meat axe? >> whenever you're hired as in a company in which you're the low man on the totem pole and the economy turns down you feel like that. ask anybody who works for a newspaper today if they don't feel uncomfortable and worried about pink slips. ask anybody in the businessç where the last person that has been hired and things may go bad you're always worry about a pink slip under those conditions. mitt romney after he came out of college was the last guy hired in the bain capital operation. i'm sorry the boston consulting group. >> you actually think use of terms like i feared pink slips and i'm unemployed, another phrase he uses when he campaigns for office is appropriate at a time we have about 8.5% unemployment, do you think that is appropriate for a candidate

to identify with the unemployed when no time in his life has he felt economic insecurity, the son of a head of a u.s. auto company, i don't see that is relevant he ever felt economically insecure, has he? >> i think any time you go in a job and you're the last one there you worry about a pink slip. i think the fact of the matter is is this is a guy who is truly done virtually all his success is attributed to the hard work he did. this is a country in which somebody can start and have that great success and to begrudge him now for having been successful i think is kind of anti-american, don't you? >> i wondered why a fella to boarding school going to elite universities, never had to sweat in his life, never had to worry about putting a meal on the table should offer himself as some sort of uriah heep, that is

fair? >> horatio alger. >> i think what he has done is talked about the fact the important thing inç america is anybody can participate in the dream, what he wants to do is return hope to a country that lost hope under a president that ruined the economy. and i think what he's talking about is reviving the soul of america. >> governor sununu, to clarify something you said earlier, you described the attacks on mitt romney's time at bain capital as socialist attacks. when i was asking about the tax by rick perry and newt gingrich, are you saying they are socialists? >> i'm saying that the tone of the attacks coming out of gingrich and perry don't sound republican, they sound more like guys coming out of the left wing. >> governor sununu, thank you very much, we'll check in with those campaigns for a response to your comments tonight, we're grateful to have you here, thank you, sir. >> let's check in with our nbc

director chuck todd. >> well, rachel, obviously we have the battle for second place, as we're noticing right now, when it comes in it's where is paul sort of overperforming, we warned you that in iowa he had been overstated. in this case i think it looks like maybe the understated paul's support. where we see him doing particularly well is in manchester, right here where most of the vote actually comes from, and he is walloping right now huntsman, 11 points. we've done this before. go ahead. >> i'm sorry, this is the only reason for which i would do that. nbc news can now project ron paulç will finish second in th new hampshire primary. mitt romney the projected winner in new hampshire, ron paul the projected second place finisher. romney at 36%, ron paul at 24%

of the vote, the first and second place finishers now projected as mitt romney and ron paul respectively by nbc news. back to chuck todd, sorry about that. >> that's fine. i can tell you this, this is the romney folks are ecstatic it's paul in second place, that it's not santorum, hunt man or gingrich, somebody they believe the paul campaign is practically skipg the state of florida and that primary in the 31st, this is perhaps the ideal result. where it came from and where huntsman is following short where mccain did well until 2000, concord, a democratic county, a democratic area but paul and huntsman are neck-in-neck there. a lot of the in thes are coming in, in manchester, where there is sort of the libertarian independent, paul nearly 2-to-1.

romney, i should note all the green on our screen, romney is winning a bunch of places, what we have green up in the center north of concord and manchester, those are places that mccain won four years ago. romney's victory is a pretty complete victory and a huge improvement or where he was four years ago, but i go back politically, if the romney came paint couldn't have scripted it better withç ron paul being called second place this early takes the winds out of the sail of jon huntsman who staked everything on pulling the surprise but also santorum and gingrich, couldn't consolidate the conservative vote. this is where pat buchanan brought the pitchforks. >> in looking at the second place finish, obviously as you're describing the romney campaign very excited they don't see ron paul as a threat. is there any worry in the republican party among the romney campaign or anywhere else

that the big voting, the big votes we're seeing for ron all in iowa and new hampshire represent sort of a whole in the republican -- a hole that is not being spoken to but motivated enough to get out and cast a vote? >> they are nervous enough about it, there has been a non-aggression pact between romney and paul, if you noticed, mitt romney had very kind words to say about ron paul, refers to him in the nbc -- dr. paul you're the constitutionalist here. what the paul campaign will say the respect they believe ron paul deserves, and look at what we saw today, ron paul came to mitt romney's defense on all these things, capital attacks. ron paul is turning into mitt romney's not so secret weapon, because if he is just eating up a chunk of the sort of libertarian and frankly, tea party, that core original tea party support that isn't just

anti-government, isn't just anti-big government but also anti-big business, big anything, and paul's taking that up, that isç less vote there for a conservative, even a conservative populous, like newt gingrich, trying to reframe his campaign. a huge boone to romney think about florida. paul will skip it, he will concentrate on the caucus states. there is a concern paul could go third party, they don't want that. they want paul to get the delegates he wants and have influence on the platform and at the convention in tampa. >> chuck, thank you. you think about it we have seen ron paul attacks against gingrich and santorum, but chuck is right we haven't seen him go after romney. >> i don't buy that he is the so-called left candidate in the race or the moderate that a lot

say. he defended bain, he defended romney, he really becomes romney's guy to attack the attackers from the right. so he is anti-war on -- i think that clearly romney is going to try to get the nomination and probably will but tonight i say what i said before, the moderate, the potential moderate would have been huntsman, by him getting a low vote, he gives the moderate part of the republican party almost a death threat, they won't pick up in south carolina or florida. ron paul is respected by romney, given a major play in tampa, they will not have a voice there,ç and this bain story an his quotes, even i'm corrected by my colleague, christ matth m,

i would like to be able, which is not as bad as i like to, it will follow him because gingrich will run it in ads, he has put ads on the air in al qae-- in s carolina. >> who becomes the anti-romney candidate gingrich has reached out to santorum to offer his endorsement, if he drops out of the race, leaving no doubt that santorum is becoming the clear anti-romney, this is not likely to happen until after newt loses south carolina. so what we're seeing tonight with a poor finish by both newt gingrich and santorum, there has to be a coalescing of the c conservativ conservatives. this is a strong showing by mitt romney. >> a strong showing byron paul. >> actually, historically is not a strong showing by mitt romney. not a bit. the average win, the average winning percentage in new

hampshire primary is 39. if it stays where it is now, if it doesn't go up higher, john mccain won at 49 in 2000 and did not get the nomination. i mean i can recite to you higher numbers, hillary clinton got 39 last time around. john kerry got 38. gary hart got 37, he's not from massachusetts. this is the massachusetts guy, okay, who no one is discount, i spááp(ruáqáts i'm the only one discounting his number.only one you have to discount it by a minimum of ten. you have to look at the republican fraud, libertarian, ron paul, not a candidate for president. he won't get the nomination. he is not going to be given a prominent speaking roll at the republican convention, they can't have a guy saying what he says. he is in there to push his ideas and for whatever individual reasons he has, so if you take

ron paul of this and you take out all those independent voters who went out there today for ron paul, what would have happened to huntsman? huntsman is the real second here. he came in the real second, he came in strong, so if you look at these margins for the massachusetts candidate who is running there, for the second time, this is an unimpressive number. historically unimpressive number. >> but mccain under performed in 2008 as opposed to previous years. >> under performed by a couple points. remember, massachusetts i'll keep saying this all night, massachusetts, the massachusetts guy wins in new hampshire. >> it was the globe. >> there is only one massachusetts guy who lost in new hampshire running against an incumbent president, teddy kennedy. every other massachusetts guy wins new hampshire, easily and we discounted it historically, we never cared when the massachusetts guy won new hampshire. >> let me ask steve how important is it ron paul locked up second place, we do not know

what the final vote will be we are projected first and second for romney and ron paul. >> this went down like mitt romney wanted it to go down. he wanted the early call, as soon as the polls closed for the networks to make the callsç saying he had won. ron paul in second place, i think it's a disappointing finish for jon huntsman in third place, he bet the farm on new hampshire, wasn't shooting for third. i think the really good news, rachel, for mitt romney going forward is none of these candidates even though they have no plausible path to be the nominee, none of them are getting out of race, that increases the likelihood, mitt romney can win in south carolina, i think if he goes 3-0, he is the defacto nominee of the party, he is if he goes 4-0 no later than four. >> the huntsman campaign has now told nbc news, jon huntman will not be getting out of the race. beginning of the night tonight we were talking how important it

was jon huntsman finished first or third. mitt romney in first place, ron paul in second place. the huntsman campaign said they are not getting out. should be noted when they started running that ad, the country first ad, taking the john mccain slogan from 2008 off jon huntsman strong showing in the sunday morning meet the press debate, when they made that ad they did a money bomb said we need to raise $100,000 to run it, exceeded their totals, they not only bought air time in new hampshire, also south carolina, more than a handful of staffers in south carolina and apparently as of tonight they are planning on keeping on. >> in south carolina, huntsman has credible people. richard quinn, referred to be one of the best political consultants in the state of south carolina, also connected to the mccain çcampaign. >> jon huntsman has talented people around him.

he's going to try to take votes away from mitt romney likely by campaigning in coastal carolina with a lot of those northeastern transplants that moved down to myrtle beach, hilton head, his strategy is to deny mitt romney a victory being part of a coalition that could pull enough out of them both on the coastal part of the state and then up in the mountainous region of the state. but i do think that unless jon huntsman super pac is funded with $10, $20 million, there is a significant financial commitment made on his behalf i think he will be losing altitude and increasingly --. >> i think steve was right, if all of them stays in it only helps mitt romney. >> sure it does. >> i think it ends the way he wants tonight, if paul is number two, i think also it will work for romney in that he is able to make the argument not an out rain usually high number, but he

will be able to say unlike the others, i won iowa and new hampshire, the perception he is unstoppable, no one went in the third primary being able to say that. >> the tough thing here is no matter who mounts the charge against romney in south carolina, who has the resources to do anything in florida? the answer there, is none of them. >> i think it will be interesting to see if we hear a different tone tonight or a different campaign message from mitt romney when he gives his speech. we can see his wife and sons. all five of his sons for the first time, his son matt, a doctor, doing residency in"u(! has not been on the campaign trial thus far, all five sons are there behind mrs. romney. now andrea is in manchester right now. >> i just talked to john, a top advisor to jon huntsman, they say they are going on to south carolina, their point is jon huntsman when he makes his speech tonight will say that they are putting country first, he's putting country first and

in their view, mitt romney is putting politics first. their take on it is that coming in behind ron paul is still a good finish but their donor community is enthusiastic they will have money to go on to south carolina they are heading there tonight, rachel. >> let's go to mrs. romney. >> peter, jennifer, the many state legislators and counselors who endorsed our campaign and have been tireless workers on our behalf. one state senator, deb bradley, she is out there somewhere. jeb bradley. he had fired up every where we went. thanks to ray burton, scott hilliard, we're grateful to the people who lead our campaign in new hampshire, jim merrill.

jason mcbride and tom. and a special thanks out to the thousands of volunteers who have devoted countless hours to our cause. leç finally we want to thank t people of new hampshire. they are the active part of this democratic process. the ones we met by knocking on doors, visiting towns and cities throughout the great state, and who turned out to meet mitt and me at one of our many events and now, guess what i want to do? i want to introduce the man who we all believe should be the next president of the united states, mitt romney. [ applause ]

obviously looking at live feed right now ann romney introducing her husband mitt romney who nbc news projections is the winner of the new hampshire primary. in a much tighter race last week he was a first place finisher, standing on the podium with his wife and all five of his sons. >> thank you, thank you new hampshire tonight we made history! this state has always been a very special place for our family. we head a home here, filled it with great memories with our children and grandchildren, the granite state moment is one we

will alwaysç remember. i have our five sons and daughters in law, grandkids, it's great to have family here. tonight we celebrate tomorrow we go back to work. we do remember when barack obama came to new hampshire four years ago. he promised to bring people together. he promised to change the broken system in washington. he promised to improve our nation. those were the days of lofty promises made by a hopeful candidate. today we're faced with the disappointing record of a failed president. the last three years held a lot of change but they haven't offered much hope. the middle class has been crushed nearly 24 million of our fellow americans are out of work struggling to find work or stopped looking. the median income in america dropped 10% in the last four years, soldiers returning home from the front lines are waiting

now in unemployment lines. our debts are too high, opportunities are too few. this president wakes up every morning looks across america and is proud to announce it could be worse. it could be worse? that is not what it means to be an american, it could be worse. of course not. what defines us as americans is our unwavering conviction we know it must be better and it will be better. [ applause ]ç that conviction guides our campaign. it's rallied millions of americans in every corner of the country to our cause.

over the last six months, i've listened to anxious voices in town halls and town meetings, visited with students and soldiers, in break rooms and living rooms, i heard stories of families getting by on less, of carefully planned retirements. now replaced with jobs at minimum wage. but even now, it's the worst recovery since the great depression i rarely heard any speech of hopelessness. americans know our future is brighter and better than these troubled times. [ applause ] we still believe, we still believe in the hope, the promise, and the dream of america. we still believe in that shining city on the hill. we know that the future of this country is better than 8 or 9% unemployment, better than $15 trillion in debt.

better than misguided policies and broken promises of the last three years and the failed leadership of one man. the president has run out of ideas, now he's running out of excuses. [ applause ] tonight,ç and tonight, tonight we're asking the good people of south carolina to join the sit -- citizens of hampshire to make 2012 the year he runs out of time.nhampshire to make 2012 the year he runs out of time.ehampshire to make 2012 the year he runs out of time.whampshire to make 2012 the year he runs out of time. hampshire to make 2012 the year he runs out of time. president obama wants to put free enterprise on trial. in the last few days we've seen desperate republicans join forces with him.

this is such a mistake for our party and our nation. the country already has a leader who divides us with bitter politics of envy. we have to offer an alternative vision. i stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we're lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by resentment of success. in difficult times we can't abandon the core values that define us as unique nation. we are are one nation under god. make no mistake, make no

mistake, in this campaign i will offer the american ideals of economic freedom, a clear, unapologetic defenselç and we'l win with that message. but you know that our campaign is about more than replacing a president. it's about saving the soul of america. this election is a choice between two very different december difficult knees. president obama wants to fundamentally transform america. we want to restore america to the founding principles that made this country great. he wants to turn america in a social welfare state. we want to insure we remain a free and prosperous land of opportunity. this president takes his inspiration from the capitals of europe. we look to the cities and towns

across america for our inspirati inspiration. this president puts his faith in government, we put our faith in the american people. this president is making the threat of government bigger, burdensome and bloated, i will make it simpler, smaller and smarter. he raised the national debt. i will cut cap and balance the federal budget. he hasç enacted -- this presidt

has enacted job killing regulations. i'll eliminate that. he lost our triple a credit rating, i'll restore it. he passed obama-care, i'll repeal it. and when -- and when it comes to the economy, my highest priority as president will be worrying about your job, not about saving my own. internationally, president obama has adopt appeasement strategy. i believe a strong america must and will lead the future. he doesn't see the need for overwhelming american military superiority. i will insist on a military so powerful no one would ever think of challenging it.

he criticizes our friends like israel, i will always stand with our friends. and he apologized for america and i will never apologize for the greatest nation in history of the earth. our plans protect freedom and opportunity and our blueprint is the constitution of the united states. now the path i layout is not one paved with ever-increasing government checks and cradle to

grave assurances government will always be the solution. if this election is a biding war, i'm not your president, you have that president. if you want to make this election about restoring american greatness, then i hope you join us. if you believe that the disappointments of the last three years are a detour, not a destiny, i'm asking each of you to remember how special it is to be an american. i want you to remember to be hopeful and excited about the future, not dread each new headline. remember when you spent more time dreaming where to send your kids to college than wondering how to make it to the next paycheck. i want you to remember when you weren't afraid to look at your retirement savings or the price at the pump. remember when the white house reflected the best of who we are not the worst of what europe has become. that america is still out there. we still believe in that

america. we still believe -- -- we believe -- we believe -- we still believe in the america that is a land of opportunity and beacon of freedom. we believe in the america that challenges each of us to be better and bigger than ourselves. this election let's go on to fight for the america we love, because we believe in america. thank you so much, god bless america, thank you! you're the best. mitt romney the projected winner of the republican primary

addressing supporters tonight. let me ask you when you listen to that speech how he was after iowa, are you hearing a new message, a new tone, something new to offer the country from mitt romney, is he staying with his came as it has been or does this reflect a turning point? >> you remember last week they made last minute decision to take away the teleprompter, he was going do wing it, i suspect that is the last time in the campaign you will see mitt romney step up to the podium on an election night and wing the speech. vast improvement over last week. >> there was a teleprompter. >> had a lot of optimism in the speech, talking about better days ahead. i think that is an essential ingredient in a challenger campaign, you have to paint the picture that there are better days ahead. inherently conservative speech, appeal in places like south carolina, and floridaç and i think he took a very tough shot at the candidates in the race, gingrich and perry, attacking

him in the language of the president. and i do think as governor sununu pointed out earlier, i think that will rebound on the candidates who did that in a negative way. >> there was not a market for that. if you believe that, it would be a good member of the democratic party, i think it was a good speech, effective speech and i think that mitt romney will be very happy he's off the podium here at 8:45 p.m. having wrapped up the new hampshire primary working seven years toward this goal, an exciting night for the romney campaign. >> the booing when he describes other republicans who are desperate, putting free enterprise on trial. what did you think of the speech? >> prompter is the key. this is the first time he has used a promtd ter in a long time, he has gotten in trouble when he speaks extemporaneously. when you don't see him reciting america the beautiful, that is all he can do if you take the prompter away. steve, i think there is a market

for what newt gingrich is talking about against romney on the bain stuff in the republican party, a smaller market than exists in the democratic party. no one is saying, including newt gingrich, what he did was illegal. it goes to the question of honor. there are honorable ways to do things, the trick question for republicans like mitt romney is what legal thing would you not do to make money? and this are people in this country who will not sell cigarettes, theyç will not sel bhis k whiskey, they will not sell guns, they kill people. there are decisions people make how they will not make their money. i don't think mitt romney ever made a decision about -- what we know of his economic history, based on even though that is legal, i don't want to make my money that way. and i believe that evangelical christians have things they won't do, including casino involvements and that sort of

thing, i do think it's something that is going to be haunting him through the primaries and definitely if he makes it in the general election. >> i think you saw him tonight say that i'm going to offer a full defense of american-style free market capitalism, and he's going to need to have to do that. i think a lot of the attacks on mitt romney are grotesque distortions of what his record is. when you look at the type of business bain was in, jobs were created, there is as he talks about, destructi cycle, jobs ar created, they are lost. when the automotive bus these was born the buggy business went out of business. that is the reality of the free market capitalism it has lifted more people in prosperity than any other system in the history of the world. he's going to have to give a full defense of it throughout the entirety of the campaign, it will be interesting to see i think in the next two contests

whether the republican candidates who are making that live attack back off on it. there is huge push-back in the party, huge push-back in the talk radio world. rush limbaugh condemnudç newt gingrich, condemned rick perry today, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out, in a contest that in a lot of ways fundamentally shaped up as a litmus test what is and what is not conservatives. >> mitt romney tonight spoke like he was the nominee. he asked for the order. he says i want your vote. he talked beyond south carolina and florida, he talked about i'm going to be the guy. did i hear him did he question how america and president how he views the job market? >> the white house reflects the worst of what europe has become. >> he also said europeans she socialists welfare state. he threw the red meat out. he didn't say anything that any

republican would certainly take issue with. this is a guy who was saying tonight he's not going to promise benefits, meaning he will go after the big three he'll cut anywhere, a guy said on the road he wants to make the bush tax cuts permanent, he wants to lower the corporate tax rate, this is what we see very strict lines of choice here. and going to be an ideological fight. >> bring in chris matthews, chris? >> rach, i want to ask a question of steve schmidt. the rhetoric and position of the candidate. he used phrases like politics of envy against the democrats and i assume some of his own party people like newt gingrich, the resentment of success, is this why he won't release his tax returns? >> well, i don't know why he won't release the tax returns. >> you do know why.

>> john kerry never released his tax returns. i think there is a precedent for wealthy candidates not releasing tax returns. >> why do they open up the issue -- steve? if he's opening up the class r warfare discussion, politics of envy, resentment of success, is it appropriate to put the cards on the table. why would he be envy of a guy unless he won't tell you how much money he has. yils eight secret how much money this guy has, why is it. presidents when they become presidents release their tax returns as a matter of course. will he observe of that ritual or keep it secret even then? why the beginning of the secret which he thinks is important to the discussion of class. >> you should ask the campaign --. >> i'm asking a surrogate, you. >> i'm not a romney surrogate on the campaign. >> you want him to be president,

come on. >> i think he's the front-runner in the race. i think he's the most likely person to be the nominee of the party and i would never advise him to disadvantage himself with issues like his taxes against what is precedent for campaigns. he will probably do what presidents and vice presidents typically have done with regard to the release of their taxes. if it was good enough for john kerry, ought to be good enough for mitt romney. he shouldn't release information that disadvantages himself and opens up attacks. >> what about a european welfare state, what do you make of that phrase tonight, that seemed oveç the top for a guy who didn't support a public option, didn't go with the canadian health care plan, went with the heritage foundation, that is a european style welfare proposal, the heritage foundation, are they in league, obama and the heritage foundation and people like richard nixon, an employer mandate, which is the closest? >> i think this is rhetoric that works well in the republican primary.

when you look at the republican vote --. >> so it's not true. >> when you look at the trajectory of the country, you look at expansion of the government, you look about the intrusion of the government, increasingly in the private sector, more of a european model this is the beginning of the a framing as ed pointed out of a big contest and debate that will take place in this country between two very different visions for the future of the country. one is a more expansive in the life of the average american and to the life of the economy, and the other is not. anso we'll have that debate in this country and i think he's setting up the framework of that debate. >> i don't think chris it's over the top or unfair. >> i think --. >> when they want to regulate every pregnancy in the country to insure the government's desire --. >> listen, as a personal matter, and someone who has talked about the fact con sservatives should not be defined by gay marriage,

i think the same ways republicans object to a big government liberal intruding in the window of the business there is a lot of objection to big government conservatives intruding in the bedroom. i think that is part of the problem that rick santorum had in new hampshire. this is a famously libertarian state on theseç issues. they don't want the big government conservative peering through the bedroom window and regulating all matter of life in the private. >> there is no difference between rick santorum and mitt romney on any social issues. rick santorum's brand is social issue, there is no difference --. >> on gay marriage there is no difference on their position. with president obama on the issue of gay marriage. >> this issue of constantly trying to deport a president obama, calling him a european style this, constantly saying he doesn't understand american -- why can't they debate the role

of government, a proper debate without suggesting that the person on the other side of the debate, very legitimate on both sides is foreign? >> chris, with all respect, the president gives as good as he gets on this category, he all the time in my view, unfairly characterizes republican positions as a matter of course, part of politics. i don't think mitt romney said anything this that speech that was over the top. i don't think he said anything in his speech that questioned the president's character. chris, substantively a lot of the policies that we're talking about here is that they do trend toward a european-style role of government and it will be a big debate in the country. i think when people have unfairly attacked the president over the last couple years and there have been more than a few republicans have doneç it, fory

part i've always condemned it and i think it's wrong to have questioned the president's patriotism but i didn't hear mitt romney do that tonight. >> i think the problem is several. one, i think he did do a much better speech and i think that he's a good teleprompter speaker, the problem is when you get to the substance of what he says. it is over the top to talk about european -- he's also not fair to act as though this president that inherited an economy like he did and had to break the country back from the brinks of a depression, you act like this was his vision, rather than him trying to bring us back from a bad vision from a predecessor that was supported by mitt romney. the other thing i think that will haunt mr. romney and going to be -- good tonight compared to how terrible he was in iowa, to act as people fighting for workers rights, fighting for

economic opportunities are envious, will backfire. people are not envious of the rich. people are saying it's unfair that you have a different tax structure for the rich than the poor, it's unfair that the 1% control wealth. they're not saying i want to control it. they're saying we don't want you to control it all. to try and act like all of this movement is based on envy, rather than trying to even the playing field in america and return us to a country where people can achieve their dream, what he's really saying to working class people tonight is you're just jealous of us rather than we want to have an america that our parents and others fought to have and i think that o backfire. has nothing to do with jealousy, has to do with the american dream for everybody. >> the other thing about the appeasmment thing, his record on foreign policy is stellar.

no one thought president obama would be to perform the way he has. he had one victory, one success after another, the other thing is about the releasing the tax returns, did i hear you say you thought it would be to his disadvantage? disadvantage, he should be proud how much money he made, if he's wealthy heck, everybody wants to know how to get healthy, too. i wonder if mitt romney doesn't have money offshore. >> i want to make one point about the european thing. in 2004 when mitt romney was running, there was dubious story about somebody accidentally leaving a briefing book in a hotel room, remember that, the briefing book comes out we see what mitt romney's strategy would be. it was collection of the worst bumper stickers. the worst of the worst was mitt romney was planning on running "first not france" he thought that his opponent would be hillary clinton and he was going to run under the "first not

france" because hillary clinton represents france. he had been planning on running against europe since he was running for president, a very long time, precedes this cycle. the reason he was doing that is because in my opinion, is because during viet nam, his deferment was to go to france. he speaks fluent french, on tape speaking french, he was in france in viet nam as a missionary. none of his sons joined the mi$itary, you try to turn that against your opponent instead of it being used against you. he has been trying to run against europe before he knew barack obama's name. >> for our foreign viewers online, i would like to take 60 seconds in defense of european socialism. steve, you can read what you want when i'm doing this. look, social security was bismarck's idea, wasn't our. we imported that from germany, public pension paid for by the government. european socialism does some things better than american

socialism and some worse. better at public transportation, much better at health care containment costs within their socialist system of health care. they are not terribly good at medical innovation and the new machinery that tends to come out of the united states. it tends to be unbelievably costly when it does. to sit in the world and say this guy is interested in european ideas, good, which ones, that is what i want to know, which ones is he impressed by. if romney thinks there are absolutely no good ideas that exist anywhere else in the world, then he shouldn't be president and if listeners to that think yeah, that's right, we must not ever, these people who are driving their toyotas down the road listening to mitt romney tell them nothing good comes from foreign shores, really have to pause and think about that just would be more minute and that is the end of my minute. >> we could have a global

economy we can't be like anybody else. >> we can't cooperate with the globe. the other problem@=%9 lawrence's earlier point, he did a great job of making gingrich and santorum look desperate. i wonder now how the ron anti-war paul crowd will deal with the strongest military in the world. he did a real number tonight that in the next debate someone need to raise to mr. paul how can you be kind to mr. romney, who is the anti-thesis of your position, that the whole world would be afraid, i want to see what the ron paul supporters and mr. paul has to say about that. >> in fairness, reverend, i didn't hear him talking about the biggest military in the world that the whole world will be afraid of. i heard him maintaining america's unique defense posture as powerful and unchallenged miller to. >> so powerful no one would

think of challenging it. >> we're in a period there are massive defense cuts being undertaken, and that the american military is doctrineally being re programmed out of the last ten years of war, so we ought to have a debate in the country how that military should be scaled and what the size is. i think he articulated his view on it but i don't think it was done in an unreasonable way. >> ron paul's crowd to go along with that, i'm not d-- distortig what he said. that is not what ron paul is touting and that a lot of his followers believe. the appeal is to those followers how --. o to tamron hall. we have information how romney won in new hampshire, how he put together this victory and for that we turn to tamron haul. >> this false in line what you're discussing with the panel. getting interesting information how mitt romney won the new

hampshire primary tonight from our exit poll. the argument is he is more electable and that seemed to work for him tonight. we have been talking about how the ability to beat president obama voter thought was most important today, a third said that. the voters who said electability was a big factor voted for romney by a big margin, 59%. gingrich, paul and huntsman far behind. now let's look at how romney did today compared to four years agoing when he lost to john mccain in new hampshire. take a look at this number here, romney did much better this time among voters with the highest income. four years ago narrowly lost among voters who make $100,000 or more getting 33%. today he won this group with 45%, with huntsman a distant second with 18%. also improved with voters who described themselves as moderate or liberals and among registered

republicans where he scored 12 points better than he did in 2008. we'll watch the data and bring more information to you tonight, rachel. >> thank you, tamron. mitt romney locking up the really really rich votes. >> you're envious. >> green with envy. >> let me tell you what we're expecting in terms how this will unfold over the course of the night. nbc news is projected mitt romney as the winner in new hampshire. the second place finisherç is projected as ron paul. the third place finisher in new hampshire is jon huntsman. newt gingrich, rick santorum, rick perry all trailing behind those three. we'll take a break right now we're expecting comment from ron paul from jon huntsman, rick santorum all expecting speeches. stay with us this is the new hampshire primary here on msnbc.

we're expecting comment from ron

welcome back to msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary ron paul tsecond place finisher tonight. >> i don't have to introduce my wife, you know my wife carol. we have a few other members of the family here. we have a daughter-in-law peggy. and we have lisa, linda and mark, we have another family, in the family he's aç grandson-in-law, jesse. it is a delight and jim, senator thank you for your support along with andy for your

cosponsorship, i appreciate that. i want to mention three names of the individuals who did so muching ormuch ing or organization, jared, he's probably making phone calls or something. bob goodman, it's just a tremendous amount of work here. and george brahn, fantastic. there was one other acknowledgement i wanted to make. i wanted to thank the union leader for not endorsing me. i called governor romney a short while ago before he gave his talk, and congratulated him, because he certainly had a clear-cut victory but we're nibbling at his heels.

but there was another victory tonight, he had a victory but we have had a victory for the cause of liberty tonight. there is no doubt, there is no doubt that thisç whole effort that we are involved in will not go unnoticed, let me tell you. i think the intellectual revolution going on now is well on the way there is no way they are going to stop the momentum that we have started. that is a victory that you have brought about, because you have been the ones that have done the work, there is a lot of people here but the ones across the

country the dodonors, excitemen on the campuses it's unbelievab unbelievable. we don't get the coverage or the interest of what was going on, if they did, they wouldn't be ignoring so much of what we're doing. but you know, i find it sort of fascinating when they finally get around and this is different people, could be in the media, could be our opponents or whatever, i sort of have to chuckle when they describe you and me as being dangerous! that's one thing they are telling the truth because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.

and we will remain a danger to you know in study in monetary history from the beginning of the country and even throughout all of history, monetary policy on periodic occasions will come -- become the dominant issue, and we have emphasized that and has become an important issue, just think this is the first presidential campaign that the subject ever came up since the federal reserve was started. so we are now, because of what is happening it will remain a dominant issue, there is no way they will put it to bed, because

they have destroyed our money, it's world-wide, there is a financial crisis going on, and it's only sound money and personal liberty that can solve the crisis that we have today. the one reason i talk about the monetary system it was a sneaky, deceitful way to pay the bills. a government would tax the people and then the people would know what they were doing, if we had to pay taxes for everything that they do, you know the people would rise up and stop it. so then they started borrowed money a lot and people didn't notice that quite as much because they passed it on. but then they resorted to the printing of the moneyç that is why the federal reserve was established to take care of of the powerful interests, the industrial complex, banking system and deficit financing, there is a couple reasons they have deficit financing,

sometimes there are conservatives that want deficit financing, and sometimes there are liberals that want deficit financing and thievery sorted to this, and of course this is why we are facing this crisis today. but, it also serves the interests who like to think that we have this responsibility, they claim it's a moral responsibility to take our young people, put them in the military and send them hither and yon, policing the world and using up the money. so, just as we have been able to bring to the forefront that most important issue of funny money, the paper money system, the federal reserve, we have brought to the forefront, others have tokenly talked about it, they get in the office and do nothing about it but right now it's this

liberty movement which is seen as a patriotic movement, individual liberty movement that is saying to the country and to the world, we've had enough of sending our kids and money around the world to be the policemen of the world, it's time to bring them home! the one thing is we do know they will come home. my goal and our goal has always been to bring them home in a deliberate fashion to avoid major economic crisis by destroying our economy by spending so much overseas. in the last ten years the wars have been going on added $4 trillion of debt. i don't think we have been one bet safer for it, i think we have been less safe because of

all the money we have spent overseas. so, this is the issue now, it is an issue that i think is crucial, jim mentioned in the introduction that so often they say if we tell people that we think we should spend less in the military, they say that means you want to cut defense. no, if you cut the military industrial complex, you cut war profiteering but you don't take one penny out of national defense. and besides, we're flat out broke. fortunately we did not have to fight the soviets. the soviet brought themselves down for economic reasons. do you know they were so foolish and thought themselves so bold they could pursue their world empire that they invaded afghanistan. but we will come home, but if we

do it now, calmly and deliberately, we can save our economy here at home. because there are a lot of people who are suffering here at home. you have to stop the inflation, that destroys the middleç clas. that transfers the wealth to the poor to the middle class to the wealthy. that is why the wealthy got the bail-outs and middle class shrunk and lost jobs, they lost their houses. so this is what we have to do, we have to cut the spending. this is why i have made a token suggestion in the first year in office, we would cut at least $1 trillion from the budget. now, one thing that the talk you hear in washington is pure talk, because there is nobody suggesting the other candidates are not talking about real cuts. they're talking about cutting proposed increases out in ten years. we'll cut a trillion dollars.

trillion dollars over ten year period, $100 billion a year. our national debt is going up $100 billion every month. they claim that is cutting and they're yelling and screaming we can't cut, we can't cut. we do have to cut. we have to live within our means, if we want to be able to at least take care of the people who have been made to be so dependent on the government. i mean, we have to work our way out. i would say if we did this and cut this overseas spending at least we might be able to allow the social security benefit shares to get their checks and medical care be provided. but if we continue to do what we're doing the results are that the dollar is destroyed, and whole thing comes apart and it will be a world-wide phenomenon. already social security beneficiaries are suffering a lot. their income is shrinking because the value of the dollar getting their checks cut. that is why you have to think about the cutting, stopping inflation, overall you have to

ask once again as our founders did, what should the role of government be in a free society? the role should be very simple. the protection of liberty. wonderful, wonderful. the constitution was written for a very precise manner, it was not designed to restrain the individual, not to restrain -- it was to protect your liberties and restrain the federal government. the liberty has to be reemphasized because we've been careless over the last 100 years, taken liberty and chopped it up in pieces, some people think liberty has to do with

personal habits, which i agree. other people think liberty is how to spend your money and they defend that part and fight about whether to do what. i think what we need to do is make this emphasis that liberty means you have a right to your life and your privacy and the way you want to live your life as long as you don't hurt people and have a right to keep and spend your money as you want to. freedom is a wonderful idea, that is why i get excited iç really get excited when i see young people saying it's a wonderful idea. freedom is popular, don't you know that? freedom brings people together. i think it's magnificent the crowds that have come out over the weeks and months have been diverse, because it should be. because some people want their freedom to practice their religious one way, maybe another

way, some might not want to practice it at all. but freedom if you understand it, you should all fight for freedom because you want to exert your freedom the way you want. same way with economic freedom, should bring people together. and i think this is one reason people worry about how are you ever going to put the coalition, they don't want a coalition, how will you compromise, give up some believes in order to get some things passed. you don't have to compromise, what you have to do is emphasize the coalitions that people want their freedoms for different reasons and bring them together. america is the greatest country ever, most prosperous country ever, largest middle class ever, it's not that way today. our middle class is shrinking, the country is getting poorer, wealth is based on debt, the few who hold the wealth is maldistribution because it shifts over due to the

regulations that control of government. we have had too many people too long in the last 100 years thinking that it was beneficial more to be have high paid lobbyists to get to find out what they can get from theç government, rather than us petitioning our government in a proper manner, to petitioning our government and demanding our freedoms back again. a lot of times they give us trouble and they say freedom, you people are just too selfish, all you want to do is have your freedom, and -- they argue that is the case. but the thing of it is, the people the bleeding hearts and i understand them and i recognize them, and i believe most of them are well-intended but it doesn't work is the problem. all that good intentions of saying we're going to give everybody a free house and no loans and borrow against the

equity, look what happened it was the bubble burst and they lost their houses. the humanitarian instincts are there across the board. what we have to convince them if you're a true humanitarian you have to fight and argue the case for free markets, sound money, property rights, contract rights, no use of force, and a sensible foreign policy so we don't waste our resources. we're well on our way, we're well on our way. people have asked me what did i expect five, ten years ago, i had no idea, i always assumed the best i could do is set a record. i didn't know you were out there. but it's noç longer that irate tireless minority that is stirring up the troops.

now that irate minority and so tireless as you have been, it's growing by leaps and bounds, will continue to grow by leaps and bounds and we will restore freedom to this country, thank you very much. . >> congressman ron paul projected to be the second place finisher in new hampshire, saying to a very enthusiastic and young supporters, i didn't know you were out there. seeing glee on his face. you can -- he does not speak like a main stream presidential candidate. it's undeniable ron paul moved a lot of people who would not otherwise be interested m politics and he certainly would not otherwise be interested in republican politics, he has been a catalyzing force for young people. but that is big enough now that he is placing a very strong second to mitt romney in new

hampshire and placed a strong third in iowa. let's go to chris matthews in manchester, chris? >> i just wondering rachel, whether the appeal sort of the strangely innocent appeal of this fellow who giggles about the idea of being dangerous, isn't the fact largely his appeal is not do those who have joined or part of the droppings as i call them and have called them of the republican party over the years, beginning with the segregationist, to move over the democratic party and republican party after thedamm age of the civil rights bill. the religious right after the passage on public school prayer. the people who moved over when mcgovern came in, all those people that joined the republican party, i think to its unfortunately he's not appealing

this -- to them. that is my thought. i want to bring in john harwood about where these candidates are headed now, assuming the results are accurate as we've gotten them which has romney in first with a 37%, paul at 24, huntsman at 17, others down around single digits, just about 10. >> first of all chris, headed for a serious free for all in south carolina, mitt romney goes there tomorrow, advisor to ron paul said he's going tomorrow expanding his advertising, that includes advertising that is good for mitt romney, we've shown we finished third in iowa, second in new hampshire, we should be the alternative suggesting other candidates think about dropping out of the race, jon huntsman is also going do south carolina, his team expects the super pac backing him to have an ad that will give

him the chance feeling some molder rat votes on the clothes from mitt romney, so we have a serious fight, mitt romney is also going on thursday to florida, his super pac has bought time, they are hooking longç -- they are looking long term, we have a fight ahead. >> no one is off the island. >> nobody is off the island yet. no indication that newt gingrich will get out, that jon huntsman is unless he does extremely poorly in south carolina, which of course is possible. no indication that santorum is out yet, he is going to contest, he polled well in south carolina. so on the 21st we'll find out --. >> what is perry going to do, having done nothing here, buddy roemer down around 1, what is he going on? >> the romney campaign said they are pulling he is forces in south carolina, he still has advertisemens and got money on the air, we have a heavy ad campaign, heavier than new hampshire and he's going to try

to take a dent out of mitt romney and see in that southern state where he ought to have more appeal than he has shown up here or even in iowa, whether he can either end his campaign on a more graceful way than he finished in iowa or breakthrough. >> todd the author of game changer, msnbc analyst, let me ask you about this thing, if you were writing the book which you are for this time around, there is a plot point? did something happen in new hampshire worthy of a chapter? >> if you combine iowa and new hampshire together, the lead of the whole story is mitt romney is the first republican who is going to have won iowa and new hampshire in history you have to take your hat off to him. puts him in an extraordinary position. you had a fractured conservative vote in iowa allowed romney to win by 8 votes, with 25%ç of t vote. now he goes to south carolina,

his weakest state among the early states. he has iowa all over again. all of the guys down there trying to somehow become the consolidated coalition, conservative alternative to romney, yet fracturing the vote. the only bad news out of new hampshire for mitt romney is john is right, i don't know if he is, is if jon huntsman goes do south carolina and has money behind him, i have thought for a while that as huntsman started to rise here, this was for huntsman a primary had an audience of one, that audience of one was his father, jon huntsman, sr. billion-and-a-half dollars. tens of millions dove lal ares put in the huntsman super pac. he has not done that in the course of the last several months. i thought this primary would be a signal to jon huntsman, sr. he's my son in this. if he decides third place is good enough and writes a $10

million check to the huntsman super pac, jon huntsman can go to south carolina and florida and -- >> to what effect? in a conservative state. >> there is vote on the coast in south carolina that is relatively moderate. >> hilton head. >> that is something romney never had to contend with. he never had to fight for moderate. >> you would think jon huntsman's dad would have at least as much motivation to help his son as sheldon a defrnlson helped newt gingrich. >> i know this is part of the situation, let's come back to  is happening. mitt romney wins the first two, never been done before. what we know in modern republican primary history if you win south carolina, you were the nominee. is that still true, john? >> if mitt romney wins he's the nominee. of course he's playing this long game. my colleague at the new york times reported tonight 3.6 million dollar ad in florida by

the mitt romney super pac. he's playing the long game, the only guy who we know right now can play that game. >> you're looking at internals here, where is the love for romney. is it the upper income, the person the object of envy, are they the people that really embrace with love and affection mitt romney? because i don't know those people. >> well, yes and here in new hampshire --. >> wealthy people. >> here does better upscale, college graduates, older, but he held his own among the tea party vote, evangelical vote, catholic vote. >> could they love him? >> no. >> back to rachel, still strange they have a nominee they are going to marry without love. >> i don't think love is a prerequisite. >> shotgun marriage. >> marriage of convenience. thank you, chris. we have been told by a spokesperson for jon huntsman campaign jon huntsman called mitt romney to congratulate him

tonight, spokesperson describing jon huntsman as telling mitt romney congratulations, you're a good man, you looked great up there with your family on stage, i'll see you in south carolina. we're expecting to hear from jon huntsman at any moment, stay with us.

right now, mitt romney projected as the winner in new hampshire tonight. second place, ron paul, right now with 50% of the vote in, mitt romney projected to have 37% of the vote. ron paul 23%. jon huntsman with 17%.

4th place, newt gingrich, 5th, rick santorum. couple hundred votes between them. this is 50% of the vote in and rick perry distantly behind at 1%. we're waiting to hear from jon huntsman, expecting a speech from him any moment. will say looking at the ron paul results with him in second place in new hampshire, he got 21% of the vote in iowa, all along his campaign has been saying we're going for a caucus strategy, a delegate strategy, lock up as many delegates as we can. we know they have the money to stay in for the long game. ron paul has his own long game with his own almost unquenchable pool of donors. ron paul is planning on taking as many delegates as he can. what will he do with the delegates? i do not believe ron paul's goal in life is to get a speaking slot at the republican convention. in 2008 he set up his own convention, remember they were in the twin cities, he was in

the other twin city, st. paul, minnesota in minneapolis, 10,000 people, he's there for the cause of liberty. the liberty movement. what will he do with the delegates that he locks up? we'll talk about that over the course of the evening, right now we're looking at jon huntsman, coming in third place tonight there with his family on stage.ç ♪ ladies and gentlemen i think we're in the hunt. thank you, ladies and gentlemen i'd say third place is a ticket

to ride, ladies and gentlemen. hello, south carolina. ladies and gentlemen, we're here tonight because of you. we've got the greatest volunteers. the greatest organizers this state has ever seen, give yourselves a hand! and we've proved the point that this state wants its candidates to earn it the old fashioned way, that's on the ground, handshake by handshake, conversation by conversation, vote by vote, we got it done, ladies and gentlemen. you know what else we got done during this great seven months where we've have at least 170

public events in thisç great state, 170 public events, no one even came close. we had conversations about the importance of putting this country first, ladies and gentlemen. because the people -- because the people of this great nation, the greatest nation that ever was, they are tired of being divided. they want leadership that will stand up and tell us all that first and foremost we need to come together as americans in order to solve our problems. we need a president, ladies and

gentlemen, that will stand up and say we have an economic deficit it's called $15 trillion in debt, this isn't a debt problem it's a national security problem and we're not going to leave it to the next generation of americans, ladies and gentlemen. and i want to stand up, and i want to square with the american people about this. afghanistan is not our nation's future. and iraq is not this nation's future. our nation's future is how prepared we are to rise up as the american people and hit head-on the competitiveç challenges of the 21st century. you know what i'm talking about? and this is about economics. and this is about education. and this is going to play out over the pacific ocean with

countries that i have lived in before. and all i can tell you tonight without any hint of hyperbole, folks, if we don't get our act together at home we will see the end of the american century by 2050 and we won't let that happen, are we? ladies and gentlemen, we also have been able to get our message out to the people of this great state about a second deficit that we have. it's not an economic deficit but it's just as corrosive as the economic deficit. it's called a trust deficit. because the people of the greatest nation that ever was, the united states of america, no longer trusts their institutions of power. and no longer trust their elected officials, how did we get to this spot? we're too good as people to be in this hole. we're the most blue-sky, problem-solving, can-do

optimistic people on earth and we'll get out there and address the trust deficit and it will start -- it will start with congress, because everybody knows congress needs term limits. and everybody knows we have to close thatç revolving door tha allows members could congress to file out to become lobbyies trading on insider information and relationships and we wonder why there is cynicisn by the american people, there are no trust in our wars abroad, we will fix that part. because i'm going to stand up in front of the american people and i'm going to say we have something to show for our ten years in the war on terror. something to show for the american people that is mighty important. we have run the taliban from power, we have up-ended and

dismantled al qaeda, they're now in sanctuaries, osama bin laden is no longer around. we have had free elections, strength thenned civil society, helped the military and police. we have done what the nation can do, it's time to bring the troops home from afghanistan, ladies and gentlemen. we need trust infused back in the nation. we need a president who is going to be able to stand up and say it's time we come together as americans first and foremost. this nation, the greatest nation on earth, has every attribute a nation would want for success. all we need is a little bit of leadership and a plan. but i saw this nation from 10,000 miles away, you hear me?

10,000 miles away, when you see this nation from abroad, you tendç to see it in bold colors. you know what i saw from 10,000 miles away living in china. i saw a nation with the greatest people on earth. a nation that is down temporarily, about to rise up again because we have every attribute a nation would ever want to succeed. we have stability. we have rule of law. we have the longest surviving constitution in the world. we even have private property rights right here in new hampshire. we have the greatest colleges and universities on earth. and people flock here from every corner to attend them. we have the most creative, innovative and entrepreneurial people anywhere, and they are sitting on their hands because there is no confidence about the

direction or the leadership of this nation. and i say that's an engine of growth that we are going to refire. and i say we have the greatest and most courageous armed forces this nation has ever seen. and i'll be darned if we're going to allow the men and women to come from the theaters of combat, the front lines, to the unemployment lines. that is not going to happen. those men and women who have worn the uniform of the united states of america in the theater of combat, are going to come home to dignity and respect and to admiration. and they're going to come home to jobs and opportunity as well. and they're going to do the same

thing for this nation that the greatest generation did so many decades ago. they rebuilt this nation. they pulled this nation up by the bootstraps and there is another greatest generation coming up. you know the people in your families, our neighborhoods, they will do what earlier generations did, they'll help us rebuild the nation. they will help make it the very best it possibly can be. ladies and gentlemen, i love this state. this state -- this state we have worked hard and diligently, we have pounded the pavement, we've shaken hands, had conversations, we've won people over, person by person. this is the old way to get politics in new hampshire. my confidence in the system is reborn because of the people of new hampshire, because they just turn out at these town hall

meetings, nobody forces them, nobody tells them they have to do it, it's because they believe in a better tomorrow for the united states of america. >> we believe in jon huntsman. >> thank you very much. and they turn out to the town hall meetings and they turn out to the house parties and they hear from the candidates and they asimulate and digestç it l and render a judgment. here we sit tonight, ladies and gentlemen, with a ticket to ride and to move on, here we go to south carolina! thank you all so very much. thank you very much. thank you. >> former utah governor jon huntsman placing third in the new hampshire republican primary. this speech you just saucer ving effectively as his prime time introduction to the nation, just as rick santorum's speech after the second place finish in iowa

last week was essentially his hello, nice to meet you on the national stage. this speech you just saucer fd as that for jon huntsman. steve schmidt i have been going to you first as a republican strategist, looking at that as a republican speech, how did he do? >> i don't think he did too well, unfocused, undisciplined, this is why you want to have teleprompters for these moments that you have a small amount of time to communicate to the largest audiences you will have an opportunity to communicate to. and he was just all over the place. he was very much speaking to the room, i'm sure the comments went over really well in the room. people were excited to see him. i think the people on the fence, people open to looking at someone besides governor romney it was a missed opportunity. >>al sharpton you talked about the opportunity in taking an anti-war stance and we did see jon huntsman front paging his desire to end the afghanistan war quickly. do you think that connected and how do you think jon hunts man

did? >> i think he can connect, the question is i think it got lost in so many other things that he was doing. he should have taken two, three points, and closed. becauseç you can't give people2 different things and then thank everybody in the room by name and think anyone will remember it when they're seeing you for the first time. i think probably the best speech was mitt romney because he read it. the problem will be when he gets in debates and no one has the teleprompter and you don't have somebody in your ear whether that was true or not with bush, we all liked that, whether it was true or not --. >> that's where i think mitt romney falls apart and when he starts that, this is the author, with all of them playing martyr in south carolina, he's taking real shots at the president,

real shots at newt gingrich, so pardon me if i don't take out my handkerchief and cry. >> we're waiting to hear from newt gingrich and rick santorum. rick santorum gave a good speech out of iowa. newt gingrich, i have to say i disagree on just about everything, i always find him a compelling speaker. let's go to chris matthews, how do you think jon huntsman did? >> it's interesting, rachel, how different the speeches are in different directions. i think steve schmidt was right, it was a diffused speech, they go in different directions. look at romney, again going after president obama, direct partisan attack on the president, that is what he does every chance he gets. then you have paul, all over the place, like the world's greatest authority, professor irwin corey with the bromides, suggestions for changing the universe. then you have huntsman goingç against the afghanistan commitment, seems to be on-going

forever. it's not like they are competing in the same marketplace of ideas, they each have niches they are going in, you have to wonder if they are all going for the republican nomination of the same party? that is what i find probably what is weird about covering this campaign. rachel, they're not campaigning for the same audience. >> two out of the three candidates, one in new hampshire tonight want to get out of afghanistan right now. not on the plan that the country has, they want to get out right now. this is something totally different than what we've seen from the republican party. >> the way that strategists talk about this, correct me if i'm wrong, the idea of fishing out of different ponds, that these candidates are essentially looking for different voters, looking to energize different voters but also appeal to different voters with the types of messages they are sending. are any of the three candidates, first, second and third, going for the same voters?

>> unfortunately for huntsman, they are. huntsman and romney are, huntsman won't get them. that was his moment. that was his shot. when you think about barack obama, senator barack obama's winning speech in iowa, if you had not seen one minute of that campaign prior to that speech, you knew exactly why he was running for president, exactly why you would vote for him or not vote for him. the same thing with romney tonight. focused, written tell promptered speech, this is a party that spends time criticizing the president of the united states for using teleprompters and i have been teasing romney and those guys in the hope they wouldn't use themç again becau that will december droi the candidacy. huntsman shows you the price of not using a prompter, great for all the people in the room, he made the mistake a lot of them make, they feel excitement of the room, a surge, i can do this, no you can't, your mind is not that organized, not in a moment like this, you'll ramble,

you're going to do the war section, 10,000 miles away from the country, then the war section again, and again and again, and so he really missed a spot there, but look, we saw santorum's good speech, get him nothing in the next state. we saw romney's bad speech last week, not hurt him in the next state, so we'll see what happens. >> it is interesting to remember that new hampshire on the democratic side in 2008 who was favored in the polls going in that? barack obama. who won? hillary clinton. but then his speech, he gave the speech in iowa, great speech in new hampshire, you're right, that was even turning that disappointment that night in a catalyzing moment was an effective thing for the now president. >> i would like to be a fly on the wall with the republicans right now. who really thinks they will get the nomination? does gingrich think he will get it? huntsman, santorum, ron paul? do they -- at some point you have to really believe, don't

you? >> i think that's true. i think the danger is something that rachel raised. the one that i think if i were a republican, steve, that i would be concerned about is ron paul. because unlike last time, he is going to have delegates, and if he keeps picking up delegates, he can either do another convention or heç could be ver interesting on where he instructs the delegates to do on the floor. i'm not talking about a speech here, but i'm talking about how do they make their liberty point as delegates having the second largest amount of delegates, possibly, at that convention? and that will be very interesting when in many of the points that they believe in and he very clearly laid out tonight, will be the opposite of what the nominee represents. this could be very, very interesting. >> i have a question, ron paul knows he's not going to get the nomination, knows he won't be president. i firmly believe as of sunday

that newt gingrich knows that too. i went to an event in new hampshire sunday in a mexican restaurant, this is the english-only candidate as the official language. he was introduced by bilingual, giving out campaign buttons, was incoherent, unlike television, on television there is something about the time limits that get him in a more focused way. you let him go in that room, the room was silent, no reaction to anything he had to say the entire time, the monroe doctrine came up, and several other things that nobody in the room cared about. the guy, i've never seen somebody in new hampshire more checked out of this campaign as an actual vote-getting exercise than newt -- newt gingrich. >> if they want to beat barack obama so bad if they know they won't get the nomination, why not get behind romney? >> ron paul wants to run when he's 80.

he's 76, he wants to run four years from now, whiche can do if barack obama wins. gingrich would be delighted to see romney defeated in the general election by president obama. it's a grudge thing for gingrich now. it feels like it. >> i had this theory, granted tolly conspiratorial theory of my own, ron paul doesn't want a speech at the convention, ron paul doesn't want a plank in the platform, he doesn't want to tweak the party or nominees, he sees himself as a looeader. he wants to make mitt romney not the nominee. >> he can do that the at convention, how? >> other people --. >> other people on the floor with delegates, the second largest amount, he has a real power. you cannot exclude those delegates from entry because they're delegates. you cannot seat them because they're delegates.

you have a problem. when you have an insurgent force, an independent force that now becomes the members of the party sitting on the floor, you have a problem. >> i think it's important to remember when we talk about ron paul, it may well be that he in fact is trying to advance an idea, he's trying to lead a movement that he's absolutely sincere about what he says, which i think he is. republicans would be very deeply worried about ron paul mounting a third party candidacy, it would hand the election to president obama. i think it's a remote possibility for one fact, because of senator rand paul, who has a bright future in the republican party. i think that fences ron paul in. it may well be he'sç setting ua movement that his son could one day lead.

i think it under reported moment in all this was last week in the debate when rick perry said i would sent troops back in iraq, i don't think there is a single republican policy a single policymaker in the country who thinks that's a good idea. and increasingly, you're starting to have this debate in the republican party that you saw jon huntsman talking about with there being some more circumspection about the use of military force in places all around the world. and i think the terms of that debate are going to change. it will be interesting to see how that debate changes from a romney perspective as he moves into a general election. i think one of the things ed pointed out, i think it's a mistake for republicans to attack the president on national security issues through the appeasement lens and everything else. i think it's a road to ruin. i think you go after the president on the economy, but i think you're going to see a lot more circumspection on these national security issues in the general elections than you see in the primary. >> richard vigry, longtime conservative, told me that ron paul will not go third party

because he doesn't want to ruin it for rand paul, his son. >> rand said that this weekend. he said ron would not run third party. >> and rand said he would endorse the nominee. but i'm saying that could be a problem. if he's got 800 delegates, 500 delegates sitting on the floor, and romney gets up and makes that kind of speech, how do you stop them from çheckling? >> you tell them you're going to audit the fed. >> what i'm saying is, be careful what you wish for, because you may get it. because they're going to be in the tent, but they can't control them in the tent. and i think -- what are you going to have ron paul run out there and tell them to be cool? >> i think ron paul as the head of a movement is looking ahead to his son's future. and i think he would prefer his son to be leading an insurgent movement for liberty in this country, rather than be the son of the guy who got 500 delegates in the republican nominating contest and did nothing with them. so i think that ron paul is still an unpredictable force.

>> he made a reference about that tonight. he said, you know, where have you been? he's made that reference like, i didn't know you were out here. >> yeah, i didn't know you were all here. >> he's building. >> he started running for president 24 years ago, when he was 52 years old. and he started running as a third party candidate, as a libertarian candidate. and what he's accomplished is he has entered, certainly, into the republican dialogue basic questions about the very existence of social security. the very existence of the social safety net. and the very existence of much of what modern government does. and that is a large philosophical point that has had a real impact in the republican party and to a great extent has controlled the actual governing dialogue in the house of representatives and the senate this year. it's a very important component that president obama is now up against, that no previous president ever really had to contend with. the possibility that there were some members of the house who

thought, you know what, we shouldn't have medicare atç al. the father of that kind of thinking is ron paul. >> right now we're waiting for newt gingrich. we're also waiting for rick santorum, both of whom are giving very hotly awaited -- due to give hotly awaited speeches this evening. we're expecting to hear from rick santorum probably first, before newt gingrich. but, again, we're keeping an eye on both of those campaign headquarters right now for those speeches. those are due just ahead. keep it right here on msnbc as we continue to cover the new hampshire republican primary tonight.

in our ongoing coverage of the new hampshire primary, roic

santorum speaking just now. >> your running a state like new hampshire, we knew it would be tough. but you know what, the message we had of going out and believing, believing in the american people, believing that we needed to have opportunity, not just for some in america, but we needed someone who was going to go out and speak for allç americans to be able to he the opportunities to rise in society. and we took that message here to new hampshire, we took it, talking about our manufacturing plant, talking about what we were going to do to grow this economy. and we took it to talk about faith and family, as the bedrock of our society. and by your work and the grassroots effort and the crowds that we had, we built -- we built this campaign here in new hampshire, in just a very short

period of time. we didn't spend a lot of money, but we put a lot of effort into this and we put our message out there. we came where the campaign was and we delivered a message not just for new hampshire, but we delivered a message for america, that we have a campaign here -- yeah. >> rick santorum speaking right now in new hampshire. newt gingrich speaking at the same time. let's dip into mr. gingrich's comments. >> and one of the great virtues of running is that everywhere you go, you learn something. and you pick up a better understanding of america. and i have to say that the leadership that speaker o'brien and the house showed in developing a brand-new approach that i hope will become adopted everywhere in america, where they actually had the ways and means committee report first, and it indicated how much money they would have. and they then actually adopted a budget to fit their income,

which is the opposite of every other state i knowd= country, which rights a budget and then ryes to go find more of your money to fill in what they think they need. and the result was a very courageous and a very serious effort in which they cut 11% out of spending, which is a remarkable achievement, which if accomplished in washington, would begin to move us back on the right track. so speaker, i really commend you for the leadership. this is step two of a long process. and having both been an historian active for a long time, you learn certain things. let me put in context where we are. we have an opportunity, i think, to unify the country around a message of jobs, economic growth, and very dramatic

programs. the opportunity is to reach out to everybody of every background who would rather have paychecks than food stamps. to convince them that what ronald reagan did in the 1980s, in creating millions of new jobs, what we did when i was speaker in the 1990s, in creating millions of new jobs, can can be done again. this campaign is going to go on to south carolina. and we're going to offer the american people something very different. we're going to offer themç an opportunity to participate in very dramatic, very fundamental change in washington, d.c., and we're going to prove that i both understand the principles and i understand the practice. i learned a lot of those

principles from ronald reagan and from margaret thatcher. i got to practice them as a junior congressman working with president reagan. i got to practice them as speaker working with bill clinton. and i want to suggest to you, when ronald reagan was president, we had to find a way to get votes through the house, despite the fact that tip o'neill was speaker. when i was speaker, we had to find a way to get bill signed, despite the fact that bill clinton was president. i believe if we had a republican house, a republican senate, and a gingrich presidency, it would be amazing how much we could get done and how rapidly we could get it done. >> newt gingrich fighting it out for fourth place in new hampshireton. mitt romney finishing first. ron paul finishing second, jon huntsman finishing third. let's go back to mr. gingrich. >> we'll head to south carolina

tonight and kick off tomorrow morning a campaign for jobs and economic growth, a campaign for a balanced budget, a campaign for returning power to the states through the tenth amendment. a campaign for a strong national security. a campaign for a stable, solid social security program, both for people now on it and for the young people who are here, who deserve a chance in their lifetime to have an even better program with an evenç greater return, because if we are smart, we can do better things for people. the washington alternatives, how do we raise taxes and cut spending in a way that causes you pain on the spending side and causes you pain on the tax side is exactly backwards. i was really struck. this is part of learning. when we were at a debate the other day and we were asked a question about liheap, the heating assistance program, and it was phrased in a perfectly

washington way. are you going to run more deficits so you can help people or cut more people off and hurt them so you can shrink the deficit. nobody on the panel answering the question seemed to consider an alternative. what if we simply went out and developed american oil and gas, brought down the cost of heating oil, and didn't need to help people, because the price came down? that idea of doing more and doing it better does not exist in the washington lexicon. and it makes it very hard for our friends, the news media, to cover, because it's so strange. what if you just were innovative? what if you just had new approaches? what if you just did everything americans have always done? the fact is, the entrepreneurial free enterprise system, which attracted people from benjamin

franklin to the wright brothers to henry ford, to thomas edison, to bill gates, to steve jobs, that model of maximizing the development of newç approaches new energy, new opportunities, new technology has raised the standard of living of people across this planet more than any other system in the history of the world. with your help -- you've been wonderful to us here. and i'm asking each of you not to slow down. in the next couple of days, make a list of every person you know in south carolina and every person you know in florida, because those are the next two great contests. and i believe as we get to south carolina, as the choice becomes clear, as people understand that there is a bold, reagan conservative approach of lower taxes, less regulations, more

american energy, a sound dollar, and actually being in favor of creating jobs, the opposite of the obama program of higher taxes, more regulation, less american energy, and attacking the people who create jobs, look at those two models. i believe we can reach out and we can create a majority that will shock the country and a majority that will begin to put us back in the right track. it is doable. it is a daunting challenge, but consider the alternatives. if we do not go the extra mile and we do not offer a vision powerful enough to unify americans, and we continue down the road that obama has us on, but more than obama, the bureaucracy has us on, the judges have us on, the entire pattern of howç washington operates has us on, more years of decay, more years of inadequacy, more years of

falling behind, more years of growing weakness. that's the alternative. i believe that it will take someone who is capable of debating barack obama, face-to-face, delivering the conservative message, winning the argument in order to overcome his billion-dollar machine. with your help, as your spokesperson, representing your values, on behalf of our children, our grandchildren, and our country, i will do everything i can to win the opportunity to represent you this fall in debating and then defeating barack obama. thank you and good luck and god bless you. >> former speaker of the house, newt gingrich, declaring tonight that he is not out of the race. the man with whom he is fighting it out, the man who he is fighting it out with for fourth place, rick santorum, also declaring tonight that he is not getting out of the race. nobody getting out of the race after new hampshire tonight. one week after the iowa

caucuses, mitt romney wins again in new hampshire. mitt romney now making history by making it two for two. >> thank you, new hampshire! tonight we made history! >> never before has a republican non-incumbent won in both iowa and new hampshire. has the former massachusetts governor established himself as the man to beat for the gop presidential nomination? is he the prohibitive favorite? >> it's about more than replacing a preqiq1ñ it's about saving the soul of america. >> nbc news projecting texas congressman ron paul as the second place finisher tonight. the texas congressman tonight declaring himself happy with second place. >> i called governor romney a short while ago, before he gave his talk, and congratulate him, because he certainly had a clear-cut victory, but we're nibbling at his heels. >> the look on his face is as important as the words he said.

also, the man who bet everything on new hampshire, jon huntsman, the apparent third place finisher tonight. the former utah governor vowing to fight on to the next contest of the 2012 republican presidential nomination. >> i'd say third place is a ticket to ride, ladies and gentlemen! hello, south carolina! >> on this night, four years ago, mitt romney said he had won another silver, after having placed second in iowa and second in new hampshire. he's won both iowa and new hampshire this time around. let's go back to chris matthews in manchester. chris? >> thank you, rachel. i'm here with debbie wasserman schultz, the u.s. congresswoman from florida, but also, of course, the chair of the democratic national committee. here we feel a fairly, i guess, expected set of results, although there were questions early on, even today, about who would come in second. it's clear now that ron paul has taken the excitement away from the huntsman campaign by

grabbing second place, making no other credible democrat have that opportunity to say i'm second to mitt. now it looks like going into your part of the country, two elections from now, they'll be in florida, my question is, it looks likeç romney, is this th guy you were planning to face? >> well, we've been focused on trying to build our campaign the most significant, robust grassroots campaign in presidential history. we've got seven offices around the state of new hampshire. we've had 500 events. we had 25 house parties around the state tonight. and tomorrow, when all of the republican candidates pack up and go on to south carolina, we will be kicking off the most significant grassroots campaign that new hampshire's ever seen and on to winning the state again for president obama in november of this year. >> well, let me ask you -- let's go to the micro questions. we've now come through two states, both of which are definitely in play. is that correct? neither state is safely in the president's column, neither iowa

nor new hampshire? >> both iowa and new hampshire are usually battleground states. this cycle won't be any exception. i think it's important, though, to make a couple of observations about the outcome tonight. mitt romney got about 36% of the vote. four years ago, chris, he got about 32% of the vote. i mean, in his, what is essentially his home state, for him to only do a handful of points better than he did four years ago, after campaigning for five years, that's really not anything to write home about. you could really declare it a loss, because he should have blown the doors off in this state. in addition to that, the republican turnout was off about 40% from the turnout in 2008, showing that this is not a field that their side is very enthusiastic about. >> so you're saying that he's going to be the nominee, but he won't be a strong nominee. >> i would say that there are supporters in the republican party, aren't quite fired up and ready to go. ÷yñ and nothing's going to chane in florida? >> well, i don't detect anymore

enthusiasm in florida for candidates who believe that we should focus on keeping the wind at the backs of people who are already doing well, while president obama's fighting for the middle class and working families. >> last question, was there damage done to him and all these charges by newt gingrich and the others, santorum and perry, to the effect that he ran a chop shop. that he's basically in the business of taking apart companies, not building jobs? >> the scrutiny that's been paid to mitt romney, that he has been a turnaround specialist, that specialized in can dismantling companies and offshoring jobs certainly did him some damage and rightfully so. >> will you guys make use of that? those charges made by the republicans? >> we think the economic experience that he's hanging his candidacy on needs to be scrutinized and we'll be making sure we help people do this. >> and utilized and destroyed. thank you, debbie wasserman schultz, u.s. congresswoman from florida and the chair of the democratic national committee. >> thank you, chris, and congresswoman wasserman schultz.

tom brokaw is with us from new york. tom, great to have you with us. americans looking at these results tonight. what should americans know about what these results mean both for republican party politics, but also for what happens next? >> i think there's some fundamental truths to come out of tonight. first of all, both in iowa, and especially tonight in new hampshire, the voters, especially those in new hampshire, who are able to go under the sanctity of a voting booth, it appears that they were making their judgments on electability and who's best able to do something about the economy. this is an impressive win on the part of governor romney tonight, especially when you look at the number of independents thatç h was able to pull into the republican voting booths tonight and get that group that four years ago were so strong for president obama. we just heard from newt gingrich, obviously, talking about how he's going to save the economy when he goes into south carolina and into florida in the future. there was less of the conservative theology from him

tonight, so he understands that mitt romney now has a big head of steam going into south carolina. the real issue in that state, and i've been talking to a number of people down there, is what kind of a jihad they're going to have in the republican primary? will it begin a process of self-immolati self-immolation, and that's what terrifies a lot of people, including a lot of conservatives. but tonight mitt romney does have great momentum to going into south carolina. could be a much tougher state for him. it's quite striking to me, after i've been at this for a long time, as you know, that two out of the three leading candidates in new hampshire tonight were mormons. and the other one, ron paul, was a libertarian. that was not so surprising. so politics has changed profoundly in this country. and south carolina, here we come. >> in terms of looking ahead to that south carolina contest, tom, when you look at the dynamics within the republican party and sort of, i guess, the feeling among other republicans, as mitt romney moves forward

from strength to strength, from iowa to new hampshire, is the tone of the attacks on mitt romney, taking him on first time at bain capital, these attacks of him as a looter, as a vulture capitalist, is that unexpected within the party? >> no, i don't think it's entirely unexpected. he thought he gotç some very strong support today from ron paul, saying this is the nature of a free market economy and capitalism, and it's unclear just how much damage bain capital did to really productive companies. in many instances, as you know, they say that they had to go in and change those companies, because they were going broke on their own. that's something that will play out in the course of the next several days. in south carolina, by the way, it's a very conservative state. it's a state, the punitive leader of the state right now is jim demint, probably the most conservative member of the united states senate. nikki haley, the governor, a

republican, is no some difficulty. her approval rate is well below 50% at this point. so there's a real conservative fight going on in that state. but most people in south carolina say the big issue, jobs, jobs, and jobs. it's a state that's been hit hard. and if the voters of south carolina set aside a lot of the conservative theology, as i've been describing it, and go into the voting booth concerned only about the economy, that's good news for mitt romney, obviously. >> tom, we have seen insurgent candidate sis of different types, on both sides of the aisle, but in particular in republican politics, i'm looking back to pat buchanan. when you look at the ron paul success, with a strong third place finish in iowa and this second place finish tonight in iowa, do you see an insurgency of a different kind, or is this something we can expect to follow, contours that were set out by other republicans who

have been sort of outsiders within theirç own party? >> you know what's so striking to me about his success is the number of young voters he gets, rachel. and i think that's the tip of the iceberg. a lot of young voters who are coming out of college with great college debt, unable to get a job, worried about the high cost of entitlements for their generation downstream are looking for someone who runs completely counter to conventional politicians. and ron paul does that. and in his own -- and i use this in the best sense of the word now -- homely downhome way, he gets his message across, especially in those debates. >> tom brokaw, thank you. it is invaluable to have you with us on nights like this. i really appreciate it, sir. >> thank you very much. when we return, chuck todd will be joining us to talk about probably the biggest headline out of new hampshire tonight, other than the fact that mitt romney has won. yes, mitt romney has won. but you know what else happened tonight? nobody got out. why do the candidates who did not win tonight all decide that they would stay in this race? chuck todd joins us with some

answers to that question when we come back.

tonight in new hampshire, nbc projects that mitt romney is the winner of the new hampshire republican primary. in second place, texas congressman ron paul, at this point with 24% of the vote, this is with 71% of the vote counted, mitt romney at 38, ron paul at 24, jon huntsman in third place tonight with 17% of the vote. rick santorum and newt gingrich fighting it out for fourth place, each with about 10% of the vote right now. and rick perry well behind at just 1%. let's check in with our nbc news political director, chuck todd, who's been looking at the calculus being made by some of those non-winning candidates tonight who are nevertheless deciding to stay in the race. chuck? >> well, rachel, i've talked to both the huntsman and gingrich campaigns about this very issue, right? and the gingrich campaign, obviously, they made this decision. it's south carolina or bust for

them. they got the big donor, the big maybe huntsman does a little bit better, but does the same thing. denies romney victories. the whole strategy now for the gingrich campaign, for the huntsman campaign, is actually the same. deny romney victories. and if they can do that, maybe they can stretch it out. maybe they find out romney might have more of a glass jaw than maybe he does. i think we're going to find out in the next ten days whether he

does have a glass jaw or not. but that's the strategy. stay in the race. and in huntsman's case, he's not looking at winning any of these states. he's simply looking at denying romney victories. so he hopes to be pulling votes from romney's left, rachel. >> it's interesting. we're starting to see that from a lot of the different candidates right now, the idea is to stick around in case romney face-plants. stick around in case something happens to mitt romney or something is done to mitt romney that takes him out. still be in the race when that happens. >> they're all "break glass in case candidate implodes" candidates. and the little elephants break the glass, here i am, you know? and if you're huntsman, you're seeing everybody else has moved up and down and moved up and down. he's still waiting for his moment. so maybe the point is, if he stays in long enough, something happens. >> let me ask you one last question, chuck,0y rick santorum, jon huntsman, newt gingrich, rick perry, who has not been a factor in new hampshire, but will be a factor in south carolina. all of these candidates who not only have their own campaign

resources, but have access to quirky billionaires who may or may not be their dad, who may or may not want to give them money to carpet bomb in the next couple of states. is there any difference in strategy from any of those four toward mitt romney, or are they all on board with the mitt romney corporate raider attack that we've seen newt gingrich play up so much in the last couple of days? >> no, they actually have different strategies. santorum, you saw, he's not going to go there. he's not going to touch it. i think santorum's strategy is pretty clear. play up his cultural conservative credentials in south carolina, hope that the mud between gingrich and romney, that gets exchanged, creates a factor that we've seen a lot of times in multi-candidate fields, which is candidate "a" attacks candidate "b," candidate "b" attacks candidate "a," and candidate "c" ends up winning that primary or election. so i think we'll see straightforward strategy that

way. and then you've got the romney/paul sort of non-aggression pact, if you will, and paul even defending romney against these charges. that's helpful to him at some point, because anytime you can have a surrogateyyñii push bac rather than having to do it yourself, it's always better. but they all are in this sort of deny romney victory strategy. if they ever want to find their way back. and at some point, they're going to turn on each other. newt gingrich told me today, i said, when you do the simple math in south carolina, if you and santorum split conservatives, ç50/50, romney wins with somewhere between 35 and 40%, and gingrich said to me, you know what, let's see what happens early next week. let's see how these ads hit and maybe conservatives will start consolidating around him. he thinks, of course, santorum is hoping it's the other way around. but at some point, you know, there's a big meeting this weekend of a lot of social conservatives, movement conservatives that don't want romney as the nominee, and their goal is to try to figure out if

they can consolidate behind one of the two, gingrich or santorum. maybe that happens this weekend in favor of one over the other. >> and with mitt romney having now one in iowa and new hampshire, anybody who really wants it to not be mitt romney, these are desperate times. and if there are desperate measures available, now's time to go for them. chuck todd, thank you for this. we're going to go to chris matthews in manchester, new hampshire. he's with howard fineman and others who have been reporting with various campaigns and their reactions to tonight's results. chris? >> great, rachel. you know, howard, it seems we've got three guys now running in this race that are behind and have to do something magical to pick up. let's start with the most fascinating -- gingrich. tonight, no attack in his speech tonight on the man he's been attacking, romney. what's that about? >> well, i think that's significant. partly because i know that some friends of his, former members of congress, have called him to cool it on the looting thing. they say, you're making a pariah of yourself in the party. and even though the mitt romney people claim, bring it on, we

want to get this debate over now so we don't have to deal with it in the fall, they don't like it. they definitely don't like it. but newt has a choice to make. by the way, i've covered him for many years. i've never seen him look that deflated and unhappy. >> as tonight? that's somewhat some of his friends are telling him tonight, i understand. >> can he forgive what was done to him in personal terms in iowa, in that blanketing campaign? basically on behalf of romney? >> no, he can't. but the emotional choice he faced, the political choice he faces. does he continue trying to exact revenge and get some kind of satisfaction out of that?

nobody thinks he's going to win the nomination at this point. or does he stand down and avoid really becoming a truly, you know, attack figure from everybody else within the republican party, which is quite possible. >> fair to assume, though, if he does go on the hard attack, he'll lose the battle to romney. >> the only way is to destroy him. >> what about santorum? does santorum have a chance of taking him down, romney? >> i interviewed rick santorum the other day. he told me that he'd changed. he'd been changed by his 17-point defeat in pennsylvania the other year, where he really was a negative attack dog. it didn't work. he got clobbered. and also, you know, the family story, the fact that he's got this daughter who he cares very much about and all that. and he's tried very hard, maybe for tactical as well as personal reasons, not to be an attack dog in this campaign. you know, he was known as senator slash. he's put that aside. and if you'veç noticed, he's bn very, very weary, for the most part, of attacking any of the other candidates.

he thinks he's sitting a different tone. whether he can keep doing that or not in south carolina, i don't know. but i think his hope, as small a hope as it may be, is to be the guy who's not attacking the other candidates and somehow benefit and have that weave into his cultural conservative traditionalist values. that's his line. >> i've always had the sense that santorum was really gunning for a cabinet post. that he may have done well in iowa, but he never thought he'd do that well, and he's really sort of trying to hug up against romney rather than attack him. >> if you've noticed, he's eschewed almost every chance he had to attack romney. >> one last chance. we don't get -- i guess most people, i shouldn't say "we" on behalf of anybody, but ron paul is simply a person who wants to get a message across to the party at the convention, perhaps either on a platform or probably more forcefully, in the words of the eventual winner. what's his goal now going into south carolina? >> well, his goal win just got done e-mailing with jesse

benton, his main guy, he was right there next to ron paul and is practically a member of the family. he claims, at any rate, that they've raised at least $10 million in the month of january alone. they're already organizing in all the states down the road. they're going for maximize delegates they can get, maximize leverage they can get, and then there will be a moment. right now romney and paul are sort of in a -- they're being nice to each other, not attaching each other. paul defended him on free enterprise and so on. there will be a reckoning at some point. ron paul has refused to say that he will stay in the party, that he will even support the nominee. he'll go with as many delegates as he çcan, get whatever he ca out of the republican party, and i think romney's big diplomatic challenge of the next many months is to keep him in the party. i don't think it will work. i think, ultimately, ron paul will go off on his own and he'll have the money to finance his own independent --? this time? >> yes, his people. look, we've been at his rallies. his people want no compromise. and he will lose his credibility with all the people that he's spent years and years winning

the support of if he stays in the party. i think, in the end, he will leave. >> my belief is with you, because i believe there's an opportunity to the right of romney, somebody will take it. >> weapoespecially with romney. >> rachel, it's a desultry night for those think that the republican party was going to go through some disruptive change tonight. it looks like encores. it's romney's turn. it's been his turn like it was with reagan and bush sr. and dole and cain. the relentless tedium of the tyranny of the republican party. they give the job to the guy who's turn it is. >> the tyranny of the tedium. >> it's so desultry, i'm sorry. >> in terms of looking for an eruption, what howard fineman just said right now about what he expects from the ron paul candidacy going forward and about the beliefs and desires about the ron paul true believers, put that in a bottle and keep it on the shelf. that is a time capsule of what's going on right now in this

campaign, and that may become very, very, very important many months down the road. howard, i think that was very important. we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, we've got some news out of what's happening in south carolina. obviously, with nobody getting out of the race tonight and wié mitt romney having locked up now iowa and new hampshire, south carolina south carolina has never been more important. what is going on in terms of spending in south carolina? and power brokers in south carolina who can make all the difference in that state. new news on that coming up next.

welcome back to msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire republican primary. with 74% of the vote reported, mitt romney in clear first place. 38% of the vote. ron paul in second, 23% of the vote. jon huntsman, 6 points behind ron paul. gingrich, santorum, and perry in

fourth, fifth, and sixth. the distance between gingrich and santorum, very close there, as you see. looking ahead to south carolina, obviously, jim demint as an important conservative in south carolina. nikki haley, as tom brokaw was pointing out, perhaps slightly wounded as her standing in the state. what are we expecting next in terms of south carolina? >> there are a lot of things unfolding in the last hour, rachel. you've got the conservatives now, i think, starting to line up behind mitt romney. jim demint, who is probably one of the most coveted endorsers in south carolina is saying tonight to mark levine on his radio show, i'm just sitting here and listening to romney's acceptance speech and he's hitting a lot of the hot buttons for me and balancing the budget and i'm a little concerned about some of the republicans who have criticized my free market principles. the super pac backing mitt romney, reported by michael isikoff tonight, that super pac

backing him has just spent $7 million in new ads in both south carolina and florida combined. they're going for the knockout punch. the bain story continues to be out there. conservatives are starting to rally around mitt romney with his win tonight at 38%.ç you've got michelle maukin, hannity, limbaugh, and ann coulter are now saying that mitt romney is all about capitalism. the advice in "the new york times" tonight that the advisers tend to cast romney as the founder and chief kperkt of bain capital, as a defender of market capitalism, a bedrock principle of capitalism, and suggest that those who assail his business background are outside the party's mainstream. what tom brokaw was talking about earlier, that jihad, the republican party is on newt gingrich tonight, telling him, back off. that's what i can read in all of this and that they are circling the wagons fast and realizing that the money factor is in mitt's favor. he's 2-0. it's going to be hard-pressed

for anybody else to come out and win the nomination at this part, except, the chance would be ron paul, and he could continue to build momentum. but it seems to me that the republican party is making a statement tonight that we're starting to damage our brand too much. we've got too much in-fighting, we've got to clean this thing up. >> but if newt gingrich believes there is an audience in the republican party for the kind of anti-bain attack that he's been making and wants to continue to make against mitt romney, with a ton of money to do it, does he say, listen, republican elites, i don't care. the republican rank and file ought to hear this, since democrats are going to use this against him, and in fact, it's⌜d does newt gingrich defy the elite on this? >> i don't think newt gingrich particularly cares. but i was struck listening to chuck todd's report earlier today about this fact. that all of these campaigns have lost control of their destiny, except for mitt romney. and it's a sign of your fundamental weakness when your streak calculus changesç from w this is going to how we're going to win the election as to this

is how we're going to try and impact the race, so that guy loses the election. and that's one step away from being out of the race. so i think we come out of tonight with mitt romney in command of the race, but i also think that howard fineman, you know, asked the most important political question of the race. what is ron paul going to do looking ahead? will he leave the republican party? will he mount a third party challenge? howard thinks he will. i think he won't, because i think it destroys the future of his republican senator son. but this is the biggest and most important question when you give consideration to the general election ahead. and who knows the answer. >> and the dynamic in south carolina is going to be different. the unemployment rate in iowa is 5.7%. in new hampshire, it's 5.2%. in south carolina, unemployment, 9.9%. >> so if there's a market for populism -- >> that would be it. >> anti-mitt romney populism, going after his vulture capitalism, as they've been saying, that would be the place

for it. >> and a company that was the victim of bain in south carolina, if they intend to pursue that. so south carolina can be very interesting. but i think, what the established order there from the governor, now demint, going where they're going, romney gets a little more strength than one would think. he comes in 2-0. i think two factors, he's going to be paul and i think he's going to be just as much of a problem in the tent for the republicans as he will be out. and i think that you're sleeping on romney's message tonight, i think, will helpç energize the moderate independents and the democrats. because he's running on appeasement, which he cannot get anywhere with after bin laden and also. he's running on talking about the economy. and he's certainly going to have to deal with bush's legacy there. and he's going to have to start some of these hundred thousand. and he's running on the politics of envy.

working class people are not envious, they're injured. we're not jealous in this country. the economy's jaded. and if he comes out with those three points, those are the three points he made in his speech tonight, he just set up a layup shot for president obama in november. >> lawrence o'donnell, will the republicans be doing themselves a favor by taking hard shots at mitt romney right now, to test whether or not he has a glass jaw? would they be actually doing the party a disservice by letting mitt romney go, essentially, so that they don't test him too hard, to leave all the testing to obama? >> they have run the test, he has a glass jaw. so they know exactly how that test comes out. you know, it's worth noting what actually really factually happened here tonight. delegates. some 12 delegates. that's the grand total in the state of new hampshire. five people are going to share those 12 delegates. the threshold is 10%, be at 10% or above, you get some of those delegates. so it's romney, it's paul, it's huntsman, then gingrich and

santorum. that's why this 10% level for them is crucial. they were -- they're both looking as though they're going to get above that, probably. but that threshold matters. and so al was right to point out earlier the ron paul delegates, but i don't see where ron paul picks up an amount of delegates goingç forward to the conventi where he could actually end up being any kind of factor. i do think you've got that issue about, how are they going to behave? the ron paul delegates. that's an interesting issue in the convention. >> inside the tent or out a problem in either case. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment. stay with us.

welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the new hampshire republican primary. i'm rachel maddow. should be noted, there was a democratic primary in new hampshire tonight. guess who won? looking ahead to south carolina, the question is not just the polling and not just the spending, but the character of the south carolina electorate. whether or not the message that mitt romney has been able to parlay into wins in both iowa and new hampshire resonates in a state with a different character of an electorate and a different situation in terms of unemployment, also a different structure of the state republican party, especially vis-a-vis the activists in the tea party. nbc's andrea mitchell joins us now with more on that from manchester, new hampshire. andrea? >> one thing that's very important about south carolina is that the unemployment rate is twice what it is here in new

hampshire. so economic concerns will dominate, but it's a different kind of economic concerns. they are concerned about jobs more than budget deficits. there is tea party strength. he does have the support of nikki haley, but as you've been discussing, nikki haley is not a popular figure at all. jim demint, as ed schultz was pointing out, his comments favoring mitt romney, not an endorsement, but certainly a broad hint. that would be very helpful, because of jim demint being mr. conservative in south carolina. interestingly, romney split the conservative çvote, the exit polls tell us, here in new hampshire with rick santorum, but, again, new hampshire conservatives are a very different breed of cat than south carolina conservatives. so mitt romney goes south with a big head of steam. there's no discounting the fact that he won iowa, he won new hampshire. we can say it's by four points more than he won it last time. we can say that he still is, you know, not dominant in not building much of a broader base,

but at the same time, he is really consolidating a very strong hold on the nomination. it's going to be very hard to stop him, unless the opposition, the un-romneys, get together. and so far, as you've seen, everyone says they've got a ticket to ride out of here, and they are heading south. huntsman is going to be on a plane in the morning, taking a commercial flight through philadelphia. santorum going south. gingrich certainly is, and there's a lot of animosity and both gingrich and both huntsman have a lot to prove against mitt romney and they want to. >> thank you, andrea, appreciate it. nbc's michael isikoff more with mitt romney's plans for south carolina. mr. isikoff, what do you have for us? >> actually, just in the last couple of days, starting before tonight's returns, but continuing, the romney super pac has bought up nearly $6 million in ad buys in both south carolina and florida. that exceeds that $3.4 million

that the gingrich super pac has bought up that we were talking about earlier. and what it really does underscore is the romney folks are trying to close the deal right now. below away their opponents byç the end of the month, and they've got the financial muscle to do it. we've all been talking about sheldon adeleson, who gave that donation to the gingrich super pac. the romney super pac is flush with cash. it's become quite the financial juggernaut making a major difference in this race. >> michael isikoff, thank. let's go now to chris matthews in manchester, new hampshire. he's now with john harwood. >>ion's with us now. john, you were talking about before we came on here about santorum. he's kind of the mystery man now. he did so well in iowa, not so well up here in new hampshire tonight. >> he did, but he's got some plans going forward. you were talking with rachel before about the tyranny of the

tedium. >> my phrase. >> exactly. mike isikoff's point about the mitt super pac is more tedium. but there's chaos at odds with the tedium, because no one's getting off the race. rick santorum's campaign raised $3 million in the past week. they started today $15.5 million buy in south carolina. their goal here, they say it doesn't matter what shakes out between gingrich and santorum for fourth and fifth tonight, because their goal here was not to -- they knew it wasn't a good state for them. but they didn't want gingrich to get any sort of conservative bounce out of here. they were present, they played strongly in the debates, but they prevented gingrich from coming out here, backed by sheldon adelson with that head of steam in south carolina. so now they're in. gingrich is in the with the super pac money.ç huntsman may be in with super pac money. we've got a lot of people

spending a lot of money in a very small state. voters in south carolina are going to hear a lot, positive and negative about these guys. >> we're back to rachel. >> it's true. when you think about the amount of money that's going to be spent in south carolina and the price of tv ad buys in south carolina, it is going to become a very political thing to watch any television of any kind in the palmetto state very quickly. all right, we're going to be seeing chris again at the top of the hour for a special edition of "hardball" tonight. msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

welcome back to our coverage of the new hampshire republican primary. here's what i think about going forward. yeah, it looks like mitt romney's got it sewed up. the republican powers that be have to decide whether or not they are desperate for it to be somebody other than mitt romney. if somebody can make a plausible case that it can be them, money is irrelevant. because any one candidate can just tap one really rich guy and the money can flow forever. with the super pac financing right now, it doesn't matter how many donors you have, it doesn't matter whether or not your dad is your funder, it doesn't matter who it is. all you need is one rich guy. and they've all got at least one rich guy who one crazy enough to

dump a huge amount of money to back mitt çromney. i think the money is irrelevant to our calculus, because anybody can put together any amount of money going forward. it's the dynamic of the race as to whether or not mitt romney's beatable. >> spoken as somebody who has never been involved in campaign fund-raising. if rick santorum had a billionaire, he would have picked it up already. >> but if rick santorum were the credible alternative to mitt romney, wouldn't he get the billionaires? >> that's the issue on this texas meeting with the social conservatives saying -- and by the way, there is no party leadership. there's no such thing. there are no set of wise men in the party, in washington, who can get together and go, okay, we're beginning to make this decision like a board room. democratic party doesn't have it. republican party doesn't have it. but you do have these factions. and that's social conservative faction is the most powerful, in many ways, and the most reliable in the party, and if they get together and if they have a sit-down with gingrich and they say, please, step out. if they say to perry, please stop doing this. and if they say to gingrich -- or to santorum, you're our guy.

if they do something like that, it could get interesting. but the likelihood of even that working is very slim. because you have to convince a bunch of people who aren't going to see things the same way to suddenly see things the the same way. >> whole, those evangelical southerners are strong. they will raise the money. but they are at a point of determination. do they accept mitt romney or do they mount the charge? and it's, for lack of a better term, it's a defining moment for them. it really is. and they have to determine, they've had some meetings in texas. there's another one coming up this weekend. i've talked to a few conservatives who have told me, flat-out, not mitt romney, not now, not ever. now, whether that'sç going to coalesce and bring together james dobson and gary bower who was behind santorum, and tony perkins at the family research council. these folks know how to raise money. they'll find enough conservatives out there. and that's why tonight, when you've got jim demint saying

what romney is saying, that's almost a signal. you know, maybe we better lessen our pushback on this. so it's not the kind of drama and love story that chris matthews likes, but it's a new kind of drama that's unfolding in this modern day politics. >> steve, when you look at this, do you see game over? >> i think it's getting pretty close. money matters, but momentum matters more. and mitt romney has all the momentum in the race. since 1980, south carolina, the winner has gone on to be the republican nominee. if mitt romney goes 3-0, it's very difficult to see how he would lose florida. and certainly if he wins four of the first four primary contests, whether these guys are in the race, out of the race, suspended or not, he'll be the nominee of the party. so he's got all the momentum and he has got to be really happy with where he is. >> very briefly, last thought? >> the problem that i have is true believers in ron paul's camp and possibly in some of the camps of santorum and them, who may not go with whatever deal the evangelicals say or the party bosses say, and the true

believers can be very disruptive. if they hang in there, romney came in tonight number one, but obama would have won. >> al sharpton, steve schmidt, ed schultz, lawrence o'donnell, thank you, fellas. i'm rachel maddow. thanks for being with us tonight. chris matthews picks up msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary in just a moment with special live edition of "hardball."

good evening, i'm chris matthews up in manchester, new hampshire, with this late-night special edition of "hardball." mitt romney makes it éwn in a row. nbc news is projecting that romney is the winner in the new hampshire primary. ron paul is projected to come in second, followed by jon huntsman

in third. newt gingrich and rick santorum are fighting for fourth place with about 10% of the vote each. this means mitt romney has pulled off an historic feat. he becomes the first contender in the modern primary system to win both iowa and then new hampshire. and moves into south carolina in a strong position. can anyone, and that's our question tonight, and it's the bottom line, can anyone stop romney from winning this nomination? chuck todd's the nbc news political director, of course, and michael steele is the former chairman of the republican national committee. he's now an msnbc contributor. first of all, the newsman, chuck todd. >> yeah? >> when you look down at this as a political expert and look at the money in the hands of romney and the growing support for endorsements, unofficially and officially at this point, and you look at the none in the hands of the other candidates and their positions, is there any real chance he hasn't got this locked? >> sure there's a real chance. i mean, he still hasn't won a primary where conservatives put him over the top. look, i think he went from weak front-runner before iowa to front-runner. he's looking like a strong front-runner, but he's not the

de facto nominee yet. he's got to win south carolina or florida to become what i would say the de facto nominee. one of those two. and if he does in south carolina first, i think that makes him an even stronger de facto nominee going into this process, does weed out the candidates. he might have to still go through a few hurdles. but, again, let's put an asterisk on new hampshire as a primary electorate. this is the most moderate, non, unconservative primary electorate that republicans are going to face. maybe hawaii is more moderate. when you get to hawaii, once you get there, hawaii çrepublicans. i mean, look at the exit poll, how a majority very much called themselves moderate on a lot of the key social positions. you're not seeing that. look at the next two primaries. two this month. two next month. these are going to be conservative electorates. these are going to be electorates that are feeling economic pain. neither iowa or new hampshire had that. he's still got a hurdle left. he's probably going to clear it.

he's got every chance to clear it. every resource to clear it. but it's not going to be easy to do. because conservatives are still, how are they going to react to all of this? are they going to get on a stop-romney train, or are some of them going to say, he may become president, i may want to be buddy with him down there. >> republicans fall in line, not in love. democrats fall in love. is there anyone to get in line ahead of at this point? anyone to stop him? can you see gingrich at this point reversing gears or putting more gas in the car and saying, i'm going at this guy, as he did a couple of days ago? >> i don't know if i can see gingrich in that position, but i are certainly see someone like rick perry, who probably wants to make south carolina a beach hit for him. i know that behave organized or tried to organize down there, even with the hiccup coming out of iowa. i think chuck has hit it right on the head. the reality right now for the gop is that south carolina becomes the conservative beachhead. lç2vgms going

sarah palin stumbled upon it a while ago when she called it crony capitalism. the original tea party message of being anti-big government, but also weary of corporate america and corporate greed and big business. if somebody could credibly make that argument, the problem is, i don't know if gingrich is the right guy to do it. does gingrich basically go on this kamikaze mission, and frankly end up helping rick santorum. one of the scenarios i buy that's likely to happen in south carolina is that romney and gingrich tear each other's heads off and santorum somehow does

what he did in iowa, and, you know, in some sort of very close race and close finish at the end, with romney. >> so you're telling me that with a straight face straight f santorum can defeat mitt romney down the road. let's look at romney's very effective speech. he did it with a great bit of preparation. with a teleprompter unlike last week. a very deliberate well-put together speech. if you listen to this speech or a chunk of it you get a good sense of why romney is running for president. he accused president obama of wanting to turn america into a european-style social welfare state. that was a tough charge. let's watch. >> now, the path i lay out is not one paved ever-increasing government checks and krad lt-to-grave assurances that government is always the solution. if this election is a bidding war for those who can promise

the most benefits then i'm not your president. you already have that president. >> well, tamara hall has been tracking the exit poll on substance and she has a look on how mitt romney won. tamara, this will be interesting? >> absolutely, chris. we punched the numbers from the exit poll and there's an interesting story on how mitt romney wop the new hampshire primary. his argument is he's mover electable and that seemed to work for him tonight. we talked about how the ability to beat president obama was the quality that mattered most to voters and today, a third said that. and the voters who said electability was their big factor voted for romney by a big margin. 62%. what you see there, the other candidates far behind. let's look at how romney did today compared to four years ago when he lost to john mccain in new hampshire. romney did very well among those who have the highest incomes. four years ago he narrowly lost

among voters who make $100,000 or more getting 33%. today he won this group with 47%, with ron paul a distant second with just 19%. he also improved with voters who describe themselves at moderate or liberal and among registered republicans where he scored 15 points better than what he did in 2008. some may wonder if republicans will rally around romney if he wins the nomination. take a look at this. if today's voters are any indication it does not look like they're ready. a majority 55% of nonromney voters say they would be did this satisfied if romney won the nomination. just 42% would be satisfied so he has a lot of work ahead of him to win over the voters as he continues to south carolina. chris, you see the numbers there and they speak volumes. >> tamara, they certainly do. back to the panel.

i'll go to the former head of the republican party. the old line as i said before and i won't go back 20e9 the tyranny of the teed yum. but the democratic party is given to excitement over kriz may. the guy with the hot hand on the basketball court. i understand the guy hitting the ball against the ball and hitting the baskets. so we did this with the democratic party and you saw how obama won the first time out and clinton won the first time out. john kennedy won the first time o out. you want to vet him a little bit. with bush sr. and with reagan, and -- a little more slowly. here you have a candidate, what has romney got that he didn't have four years ago except tenure? has he made the party fall in love with him? has he learned new appeal or new tricks? >> no. that's what's evident. he has not been able to close that gap between him and the core base of the party.

and you know, we saw it with mccain and we see it with romney. the party's at a point where they're having a sort of internal battle. they're looking for a particular type of candidate who marries two things. one, the energy to go toe-to-toe against obama in the fall. >> electability. >> electability. but most importantly more than likability is the sustainability of principal. the idea that when you go toe-to-toe you're going to be arguing from a principal position that's foundational to the gop. and that's the question that they have about romney and whether or not he can seriously do that. >> did he go there tonight with his speech when he talked about basically being against the politics of envy? against resentment? defending capital and in some cases, wealth? against -- >> i think he opened that door tonight, i really do. he was on the pulpit preaching from his mount, a new way in a new way to the conservative base of the party. whether they hear that in south

carolina remains to be seen. >> i don't know, but that was a good speech for a florida conservative. >> let's look at mitt romney in his victory speech tonight. >> president obama wants to fundamentally transform america. we want to restore america to the founding principals that made this country great. he wants to turn america into a european-style social welfare state. we want to ensure we remain a free and prosperous land of opportunity. this president takes his inspiration from the capitals of europe. we look to the cities and towns across america for our inspiration. >> you know, i think that speech was kind of a, what's an acceptance speech when they ask -- let me go back to this. do you think rick apparently is still in the race? is that because -- and i don't want to cause trouble where there isn't any because he's a protestant. >> i don't think it's that. i think that when he took that

momentary pause before he put on the speedo and started running again, i think he and his advisers and money foegs sat down and said we can created a moment here in south carolina. let's stay in this the thing and see what we can do. because beyond that, why else do you do this? if you're coming to new hampshire you're not playing here at all so this becomes his sort of his last snootance. >> i'm skeptical. >> grown he can even get 5%. >> you're asking why is he in the race. i'm saying he's in the race -- >> i think he wants one more moment and no doubt, south carolina was built for rick perry. >> exactly. >> and you have a form or two with huckaby. so i'm going to be curious to watch this week for a couple things. one, remember after the iowa squeaker, mitt romney rolls out john mccain and he did so immediately after. it was an attempt to create some momentum. that event didn't go well and i

think in hindsight they wish they did it better. but he wants the inevitability thing and he wants the de facto nominee chattory begin now. what does he roll out? who comes out for romney? possibility a bunch of senators that have been on the sidelines. >> bobby jindal? >> i think he enjoys being on the sidelines with perry still in there but i'll be curious to see how much of that happens. and we have the movement kerts meeting in texas this weekend. what comes out of there? do they make a decision between newt and santorum? i think he more fits the ideology and consistency of the movement conservative. but there's a lot of loyalty to newt in this group because, you know what? he fought the tough fight. >> let's face it, i think you're right. it's easier to sell rick santorum at church. and that's where they're coming

from. >> i think there is. we'll see, he's catholic. it is -- south carolina is -- everything is on the table when you go to that underhanded stuff. everybody's faith is going to get put through the ringer. >> that's why we love south carolina. >> i hope it doesn't get too -- >> we're in for a rough one a week and a half from now. thank you chuck todd, it's getting late. up next, why are huntsman gingrich staying in the race? they had disappointing showings but it's almost personal against romney. it seems it's been that way with huntsman and become that way with newt since iowa. they don't want the other guy to have a good time. the coverage of the new hampshire primary continues in just a moment.

we have a choice. are we going to let them take the country and leave it at the top and the rest of us struggle or are we going to make america work for everybody?

i'd say third place is a ticket to ride, ladies and gentlemen! hello, south carolina! >> the question is -- will they "hello" back. welcome back to this special edition of "hardball." jon huntsman is staying in the race after being projected to finish third tonight in new hampshire and nbc news projected mitt romney won the new hampshire primary with ron paul significantly ahead of the pack at second. newt gingrich and rick santorum are down around 10%. so jon huntsman is going to south carolina. you heard him and he said hello to the state and so is newt gingrich. why are they staying in it? they just don't like romney? howard fineman an msnbc analyst and jennifer donahue, a senior

fellow from the eisenhower institute. occasionally, jennifer and howard, old buddy, you often hear, why doesn't somebody get the appointment and you find out months later, he screwed up six months o'ago and they had a fight or the same girlfriend, or some stupid thing that made them personal enemies. and now we know why newt gingrich may be angry at mitt romney. because with just a week to go, not 100 years ago, he was destroyed by a advertising campaign that saturated iowa and destroyed who was the frontrunner, newt gingrich. so he has reason to get anger up, his dander up. i never understood why huntsman has this intramural thing with his fellow mormon from that part of the country, utah, to keep in a race he can't win. so i'm asking you the obvious one. newt gingrich, tonight he pull nod horns and no personal attacks but he's authorized his

friend, sheldon adelson who has tons of money to spend $3 million to go after bain capital in south carolina. what is it? is he going after him personally and trying to destroy him or is he pulling back? >> he's been told by everybody publicly and i've been told by former members of congress who are friends of his privately, to cut it out because he's going to make himself a pariah in the party. but newt gingrich, he's motivated both on a personal level and i've never seen him more angry. i've covered him for years. more devastated tonight by his bad finish by the way. so it's personal. but also, the only conceivable way and it's say small threat, the only conceivable way newt gingrich could win the nomination is first by destroying mitt romney and somehow, trying to pick up the pieces so he'll go for broke it seems to me. i think he'll be under tremendous pressure to back away from the strategy he's pursuing now. on the plane, i understand on

their way out to the airport they were playing on the bus and "in my mind i'm going to carolina" and that's very upsetting. >> speaking from the perspective across the board, cleerply the democrats now have all the ammo they need. newt gingrich has drifr delivered the poison pill for mitt romney's campaign. he was chop-shopping. he wasn't creating jobs. the very pinpoint of his argument for running, newt gingrich has destroyed intellectually and the property rights are now public. they can go right to the democrats the way that the attack on willie horton, letting him free, was discovered and introduced by al gore and picked up by lee atwater and the republicans to destroy mike dukakis in the general. it could happen the same way. they have property rights on what the republicans have created. >> that's a brilliant analogy. i think right now gingrich will

destroy romney to the stent the democrats need. i think the obama campaign is probably excited to see gingrich stay in the race, the man that can't win 10% in new hampshire after getting the union leader endorsement and didn't do anything for him here. he's got a vendetta and i think you'll see romney probably blood didded a little bit beginning rich. romney wants a big crowded field but he doesn't want gingrich in it. >> let's talk about rick santorum. a noble campaign in iowa. door-to-door, his whole family was involved. here he didn't have the time and as the british say, he was wrong footed, as the british say. cont contraception law. can he restart his campaign down there? >> interestingly, chris, he's sort of imprisoned by the nice-guy campaign he's running. he tried to not be senator slash anymore and he's taking all

questions which is why he was wrong-footed here because the democrats and independents showed up and asked about cultural issues to mess him up and get him on the wrong foot. if he returns to a slashing campaign style and joins in the melee against mitt romney it will -- >> i love the way you think. let me put to you yay middle case. he lets mitt romney do the butchery and he wins. what's wrong with that? >> nothing. the other point is twofold. the way mitt romney lost the senate rate in 1994, was ted kennedy and his people did the whole thing about closing plants and the whole jobs' thank that's happening now and the democrats can use republican words and republican footage. in the south, especially. you've got newt gingrich, and rick perry has made comments so what you do -- >> what about the women? the people that lost their jobs and had their families ruin by, they claim, mitt romney. >> but my point is the democrats can say, listen to what his

fellow republicans said in states like virginia and north carolina -- >> damage already done. should we agree damage done by newt gingrich? >> yes. >> so what good does he get now quit something. >> i think he should stay in for his sake because he doesn't think he's going to win it and he wants to get his message out there. >> is mitt romney going to forgive him if he gives in and stops hitting him? >> no. i think they hate each other. >> mack ve lie -- you never know where the news is going to go next. and he could dial back but it won't work because i think he's cut his ties with romney. who knows where he could end up by the spring or summer. newt is completely unpredictable. he think he's a world historical figure. who knows what he's going to say or do over the next few months. >> there ain't no witness

protection program in politics. there's no place for him to hide. he's newt gingrich. he's changed everything but he can't change his name. i think he'll keep fighting. what about tonight's second-place finisher. ron paul? is he plans a third-party run? our coverage will continue in just a minute. >> one other acknowledgment i wanted to make. i wanted to thank the union leader for not endorsing me. i called governor romney a short while ago before he gave his talk. and congratulated him because he certainly had a clear-cut victory but we're anybodying at his heels. nibbling at his heels.

there was another victory tonight but we've had a victory for the cause of liberty tonight. there is no doubt, there is no doubt that this whole effort that we are involved in will not go unnoticed. let me tell you. i think the intellectual revolution is going on now to restore liberty in this country is well on its way and there's no way they're going to stop the momentum that we have started. >> that was, of course, u.s. congressman, ron paul of texas, earlier claiming a victory of his own in new hampshire. nbc news is projecting romney is. winner of the new hampshire primary no surprise. but ron paul won, according to msnbc, he came in second followed by jon huntsman and rick santorum were back in the

pack fighting for fourth. ron paul is a true libertarian who has been making inroads with war-weary voters speaking forcefully about ending america's wars overseas. we have doug weed here. ron, there were questions all day about whether your candidate could come in second. he's won a uncontested second place. put it in your words. your candidate, the congressman spoke about a victory. why is coming in second for ron paul a victory? >> because it's mitt romney's home state and because he's been up against a very negative portrayal and thank god for al gore and the internet. people can go to the internet and they can read the facts and, they don't trust professionals anymore. whether it's lawyers or doctors. they going it will facts and this is no longer a country by

the pundits, and for the pundits. >> one pundit i know believes the good thing about the ron paul campaign is it appeals to the original republican party. not the party polluted by the segregationist who is joined it in the '60s or the moral majority who brought their thoughts into the party and changed it. of course, the neos that came in later. the droppings of the democratic party, i think, they've hurt the republican party and screwed it up. but your candidate seems to appeal to youth. he appeals to people who are tired of all these wars and overcommitments overseas and in many ways like the older barry goldwater appealed to people. what is his -- distill it down. what does he have that appeals to people in their 20s? >> my kids, look at them, they won't vote for him they probably won't get a chance but what is it about him that appeals to kids in their 20s? >> he's incorruptible. and corruption has become a big deal. i mean, now your car mechanic

can tell you about the federal reserve. here are these young students paying 8 and 12%, some 16% interest on their student loans and they read about this fight to keep the federal reserve from being transparent and being audited. when ron paul gets a partial audit we get a little look and we see 16 trillion the national debt is only 14 trillion. $16 trillion created in 2008, given to these banks that sit on the board. their own banks, a conflict of interest. zero percent interest loans and then the students pay, 8, 12%. it's sickening. they want ron paul to be their commander-in-chief. they know ron paul won't send them to war to make some contractor rich. i think it's corruption. on wall street, on k-street and will beyists and here's an old

country doctor who won't take the congressional pension. gives back some of his own congressional allowance to the u.s. treasury, who's incorruptible. you couldn't make up something like ron paul. >> and he's also anti-war, right? generally speaking he comes off as a person that's not for overseas prevention. is it fair to say that's a big part of his appeal? >> absolutely. in 1964, you remember how they railed about barry goldwater and called him "dangerous" because if he's elected president he'll trigger a nuclear war. now they say ron paul is dangerous because if he's elected president he won't. the young people don't mind having peace. >> let me ask you about the realities of life here. i have nothing against him personally. he's 76 and he'll be 77 next year. is he running to become president of the united states or is this another kind of purpose here besides actually winning in reality? >> he's running for president. we like 76.

the spirit of 76, one of our forum writers said, 76 tropical moisture -- trombones led the big parade. it's not unprecedented. >> you're serious? okay, to get to the presidency you may have to go to another route. have you foreclosed going by the third-party route? >> it's not going to happen. it will be fun for you guys to talk about it but we see this as a two-man race. i know it's more fun for you guys to have the horse race and some were rooting for hundreds huntsman to stay in but he's not even on the ballot in illinois or arizona. there are four greens running for president in arizona and huntsman is not on the ballot in ads. santorum and gingrich not in virginia. >> i think you're going to blow it. if romney wins the republican

nomination there's a lot of room to his right and somebody else is going to grab it and you guys are going to wish you did it. thank you, doug wead, ready to forego an obvious route to the white house. south carolina, romney is spending big money to wrap it all up. if you win south carolina historically you pick up the marbles. newt gingrich is spending money in a last-ditch play to bring down mitt. that fight is coming up and it's getting ugly. it already is. our coverage ended today and we'll continue in just a moment. >> president obama wants to put free enterprise on trial and in the last few days we've seen desperate republicans join forces with him. this is such a mistake to our party. and for our nation. the country already has a leader who divides us with bitter politics of envy. we have to offer an alternative vision. i stand ready to lead us down a

different path. where we're lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by a resentment of success.

this campaign is going to go on to south carolina. i believe if we had a republican house, a republican senate and a gingrich presidency, it would be

a amazing how much we could get down and how rapidly we could get it done. >> wow! welcome back to "hardball." that was newt gingrich a short while ago pledging to move on to the next primary in south carolina but without the battle cry we all expected. no one is dropping out and to one as they say as they say in the movies or television "is off the island now." new hampshire results mean nothing. they're all staying in the race. the none romneys have to win somewhere and the next opportunity is the southern state of south carolina. at this point in the race can anyone top it will frontrunner? south carolina's own eugene robinson, the favor rid son of that cradle of liberty -- just kidding -- our political analyst and a pulitzer prize winning writer and also, jonathan, analyst. you have deep history. i have to search deep to see the

optimism. i'll start with you, john. the optimism of any of these other camps. newt went into neutral gear. he didn't keep attacking mitt romney as he has been the last several days. what is he in this for except he has ads paid for he might as well stick around for a few weeks. >> he can live off the land the way he did for so much of 2011. he gets to splaine his ideas before a big national audience and play the professor which he likes to do. and also, remember, he cease himself as a son of destiny, a churchill figure. churchill had the years in the wilderness and from his comments he felt like he was coming out of weeks of wilderness and i think he truly believes, chris, that he'll be the nominee. that's how much delusions of grandeur he really has. >> well, objectively, why is newt still in the race in your home state?

>> ego, i think. and i don't know -- you know, i don't think he'll particularly get anywhere for this reason. as long as all these other conservative candidates are in the race and you have romney, it's great for romney. >> listen, let's get back to the hard gains. why did he pull a pawlenty tonight? he had a chance to sock the other guy in the face and he didn't do it. everybody knew where he was heading and he didn't do it. >> i don't know why. we know he's going to hit him. he's coming out with a documentary against romney. >> is he going to do the way the romney does. let the documentary do the dirty work and i'll be smiling. >> he didn't do it on saturday night in the debate either. >> sunday morning. >> we never know which newt is going to show up. he's completely erratic. he's one of the more erratic public -- he makes john mccain look like a figure of stability and so lidity. >> i find this unique. two roman catholics. one a convert and one born

catholic, heading to the bible belt, your part of the country, to win the hearts and minds. >> from two mormons. >> this is a revolt development. if you're a white protestant from the south, who do you pick? >> they're going to vote for romney is what they're going to do, i think. >> all this talk about the lbs won't be a -- >> they're very pragmatic in the way they vote in south karp. >> i think they will vote for romney but this is going to sound crazy but i talked to a friend from south carolina and said, don't rule out rick perry. >> i do rule him out. >> i tend to, also. but this is a crazy -- >> they said that's a probability. >> this is crazy. >> look at the latest polls. >> he's the only protestant in the race. >> that's what we think. tribal label. look at this, recent poll republicans in south carolina taken this week. romney has a commanding lead already before the bounce from tonight. 37%. he's got the bounce-up from that during the next week and followed by santorum and

gingrich. paul and perry trail further back so here's the question. if you're rick santorum who couldn't get his act together up here in new hampshire, but basically, tied romney a week ago. now the guy is inevitable. what's he do down there? does he have the money? the chops to win this down there? >> a lot of this is about whether some solve his big backers -- and he has some in pittsburgh and other place also put some chips on the table for him and we don't know the answer. >> how about the protestant group, the people meeting in texas? >> those people are important. >> james bobsy? >> and you can expect in terms of the themes he'll talk about he'll go back to some of these gay marriage themes, some of these social conservative themes. but remember -- they like establishment figures in south carolina. they don't tend to vote for the outlier conservative. they go more often for the person who whose turn it is. they don't care what happens in

new hampshire. after john mccain won in new hampshire and got clobbered in south carolina. they'll look at this with fresh eyes. >> do they like the role of certifier of the nominee? >> certainly. >> they love that. if there was one strong conservative alternative, i'd be putting some chips on that candidate -- >> it doesn't take a lot of -- it's paint by numbers at this point. you go down there and you give them the raw meat. you attack obama every second of every speech and how could he lose doing that? >> you heard it tonight and you'll hear it again and again. >> the socialist and the europeans -- >> the south carolina vote you're going to hear that kind of language. how can he go far wrong with that? >> i do think that this is the test of whether this is anti-mormon bias within the republican party. we'll find out for sure whether it exists. >> how can you see it from a couple of points. >> if it's more than a couple points you can say there's an effect. if it's not and i hope that it

doesn't, obviously, become an issue. but to the extent that there are people -- >> you know why religion hadn't become a debating point yet, there have been no issues tied to the issue of mormon religion. in other words, it only comes up, if you think about it, because it hadn't come up in a debate at all. >> remember, ralph reed told me there's a big chunk of the republican party that simply won't vote for a mormon. this will test whether he was right in saying that. i think he was wrong. we'll find out. >> i think they warrant to beat president obama enough to make an adjustment. anyway, thank you jonathan. great journalist and eugene robinson, i don't have to brag. son of the south, overcame that and became a pulitzer prize-winning columnist. our coverage of the new hampshire primary will continue in just a moment. >> you know our campaign is about more than just replacing a

president. it's about saving the soul of america.

thank you new hampshire. tonight we made history! >> welcome back to a special edition of "hardball." we're finishing up our coverage and nbc news is projecting that romney is the winner tonight's big new hampshire primary.

we're in manchester right now and ron paul is projected to come in second. although he called it a win for him followed by jon huntsman and he came in third and rockefeller plaza came in second and called it a win for him. romney came in third. newt gingrich and santorum came in i guess i expected more jumping jacks out of them. they do respect people who wait in line. mitt romney waited in line and was defeated four years ago by john mccain, doing it the way you do in the republican party. show yourself, take a beating, wait your turn and be a loyalist and you get the nomination. >> you have to say at this point he's almost the pro-hiptive favorite to win the nomination. it is his turn. this is the way it works out in

the republican party time and time again. you'll be safe predicting that until something different happens. something different hasn't happene happened. >> mr. chairman, i have to ask you the question, when you played regular schoolyard basketball, you play winners, the guy that gets the ball in the basket gets the ball. when the republicans play it, the guy that misses gets the ball. they play losers. why is that so different? >> stop with the negative commentary. this is a great night for our party and a great night for mitt romney, all due props to him and his campaign. they did what they had to do. he got close to the number. he's almost at 40% here, significant when a lot of people myself include thought the number would be around 32, 34% against the field. it's a good night for him. the test still remains. i'll keep saying this until he

proves me wrong. f would he come into south carolina charged up with the speech he gave tonight that lays down a foundational principle argument for why we should follow him. if he does that, then you can talk about prohibitivprohibitiv >> you talk ideology. you just have to come in and smash obama like he did tonight, call limb a europe-- call him an socialist. you can talk about that all day long and great applause line. when it talks about big government republicanism, you talk about spending and debt and deficit, what is your plan? can we trust you not to give us what we saw in massachusetts. >> do you believe he's conservative? >> i do. i do believe he's conservative. >> you hesitated a moment. >> i had to digest the question. >> my question is who's the

alternative? who do they flock to if not romney? >> rick perry is by definition, he has what they call the card. he's a governor, conservative, good record as governor, and creates jobs, supposedly. >> southern accent. >> protestant, fits the bible belt. >> he has the wrong kind of accent for south carolina. texas accent. texas is as alien for south carolina as pennsylvania is. >> do you want to give us a demonstration for both? >> no. >> let me ask you, does this race come down to romney versus the unknown person who might be able to beat him or can he be worn down gradually. for example, if he only gets 25 or 30% in south carolina, i can't believe, only 25 or 30% in florida the week after and gets ground down, he'll win michigan. >> absolutely. >> arizona, i don't know what will happen, how do you beat him unless somebody beats him? >> that's a very good question.

that's where a lot of consternation is between the base and establishment, who are you going to beat him with? you haven't coalesced around an individual yet and haven't co-leds around someone who can go one-on-one. i think south carolina is that moment. it will either happen there or won't happen at all. >> can somebody read those numbers? who has really good eyesight right now? >> romney, 39, paul, 23, huntsman, 17, gingrich, 9, santorum, 9. and perry, 1. >> so they won't get delegates? >> a zero on the delegates. the top three will take the 12. >> headline is romney wins second race, usually means victory. it has never been done before by a non-incumbent. >> he made history tonight, the first non-incumbent to win both iowa and new hampshire back to back. he has good mojo.

again, that stumble block in front of him is south carolina. >> he has a blocking back, too, his name is rockefeller plan pa. as long as ron paul can come in second, he kills any challenger to romney. >> and can't look so good coming in third. >> i've been to a couple of those races. third ain't that bad if you know how to swing it. that's the problem. third ain't first. >> there he is right now, vote coming in now. we have the final word. let's finish it up. it's late in new hampshire. i've always loved coming up here. you love it, too, don't you? it's great place to come to. it has a -- what's the word, flynntyness. generally challenges this stream, questions what's going on. this time, i'm sad to say because it's somewhat tedious, they just confirmed the flow, haven't they? >> they have confirmed the flow in new hampshire and it will be

unconfirmed on the way to south carolina. >> you still think there are surprises? >> i still think there are surprises. >> one thing should be worrisome, turnout was anemic. >> they didn't pray. thank you, gene robinson, republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line, michael steele, i've gotten to really like your analysis because i think you tell the truth and gene, you win pulitzer prices. this is it for msnbc's coverage of the new hampshire primary and we will continue in just a moment.