♪ ♪ ♪ good afternoon. on this primary day and at this hour the candidates are crisscrossing the state, making their final appearances just hours before the polls close in south carolina.

and in the mad dash to the first in the south contest, the candidates have made more than two dozen campaign stops within the final 48 hours, from bobby's barb cue to tommy's country ham house, trying to sway south carolina voters their way. >> please make sure that everybody you know goes to vote. i need the vote of every conservative in south carolina today. >> this could be real close. i want to encourage you to get out and vote in the primary today. and i would love to have your support. you guys are the very best. how many people have already voted? all right! >> win tonight, governor? >> sure hope so. >> nervous much, mitt? there's good reason for that. though he's all smiles with the clouds, mitt romney is facing increasing scrutiny and tightening polls, and the reality of what would have been unthinkable just a week ago is sinking in.

romney could lose the most crucial primary of this campaign so far. indeed, arriving in south carolina, romney appeared unstoppable. the apparent winner of the first two contests, carrying a 19 point lead in the palmetto state. buffeted by bain, targeted on his taxes, romney is in danger of being defeated by newt gingrich, a man with more political lives than wives. the numbers on this race right now are nothing short ofs a sounding. in a clemson university poll released less than 24 hours before the vote, gingrich with a six-point lead, 32% to romney 22%. last night updating the south carolina projection now gives gingrich an 82% chance of winning the state by more than seven points. there's even one brand new poll,

not one of our favorites, t. did we mention that romney and his iowa victory snatched away from him this week? the win to santorum with a recount. ouch. joining us from columbia, south carolina, i believe you just saw him, curtis loftus is the south carolina state treasurer and the state chairman for the romney campaign. sir, good afternoon. it's a delight to have you with us. >> thank you for having me back, martin. >> before we start, mr. loftus, i just want to play for our viewers a little clip of you on this network monday talking about the upcoming vote. here it is. >> every day we get closer to the election is a good day for mitt romney. every day we get closer to the election, conservatives see he's the man who is going to send barack obama back to chicago. >> i'm sorry to do this to you, sir, but the days since then have seen romney losing in iowa in a recount, and many polls are

now suggesting that gingrich has overtaken him in south carolina. so each day is better and better. it doesn't really like that now, does it? >> well, this is one election, the south carolina primary is a very important primary. but it's just a step along the way. there are many more states to go. i standby more words, of course, and i believe that. and when i came on board as the state chairman in august i think we were looking for it remains to be seen who wins this. >> and do you, sir, do you think that mitt romney's difficulties are because of newt gingrich's relentless attacks on mr. romney, particularly with regard to bain capital, or has mr. romney hmed himself particularly on the issue of his personal taxes? >> well, i think there are a lot of things going on here.

we've had two debates in south carolina. you've got to remember, we're not electing entertainer in chief. newt gingrich is very good with the one liner. he's running against the media. he's running against big government. he's running against liberals. all those are important. i'm a conservative from the tea party wing of the party. but they don't advance the republicans. they don't help us make america a better place. they win debates. they get popularity. and it's momentum. but will it last? i don't know. >> senator, you describe mr. gingrich as an entertainer, which i think is a generous description, if i may say so, but at the end of the day you talk about winning debates, but it looks as though mr. gingrich is actually going to win. and the romney campaign sent out a press release headlined happy 15th anniversary, mr. speaker. marking 15 years to this day since mr. gingrich was reprimanded by his house colleagues. the first with that distinction.

why hasn't the campaign been hitting him hard on this? isn't this a missed opportunity? suspect this late today? >> it depends how you look at it. a campaign will not be settled in a week. it takes a long time. we're in this for a long haul. the governor has a great infrastructure for the states coming on. the governor doesn't like to be negative. the issue of newt gingrich having to pay $300,000 in fees for an ethics committee violation, that's very important stuff. >> absolutely. and as you know, sir, if mr. romney advocates transparency in the case of the ethics investigation into newt gingrich, can you explain to our viewers why he won't release his tax returns? >> well, he is going to release his tax returns, he just didn't plan to do it this week. the tax returns are rather complicated. i doubt you understand yours. as the treasury of the state, i have a hard time understanding mine. >> i've lived in the united states for seven years. i've filed tax returns for every

year. and if i was running for political office, i could give you every single one of them now, and you would have them in your hand. why has mitt romney chosen to delay this until now? >> traditionally the tax returns are filed in april. and that's when the candidates always release them. his is significant. they're going to come with a lot of addendums and information to help people understand them. i think had they had a clue that this would be an issue this week, they would have done it. but the issue didn't come up until, what, tuesday? so that's last minute. i'm not concerned about that. there are a lot of things in play here. >> absolutely, sir. you say that you're not worried about it. but from a political per specti perspective here that if his tax returns reveals that he pays 15% or maybe less, he will very quickly, won't he, become the poster by for how our system of

taxation basically discourages the gross disparity of wealth in the country? so we have hard working teachers and nurses and care assistants who are paying double the amount of tax than mr. romney, whose personal assets i think are around $220 million. that's the problem, isn't it? >> well, whoever wins the republican nomination is going to be the 1%. it wouldn't matter if a pa glz -- whatever the rate is. he's done it legally. he didn't set the code. somebody else did. speaker gingrich was there for all those years. he could have affected the code. but he didn't. mitt romney is playing the game as is meant to play. i'll tell you, republicans are overly concerned about this. we like free enterprise. we like success. if newt gingrich doesn't like that he he likes to poke holes in capitalism and pick and choose and decide who can be winners. that's something he and barack obama can share the stage on.

i don't want any part in that. >> curtis loftis. >> i think it's a media event. >> curtis loftis, mitt romney south carolina campaign chairman. good luck to you. we'll be watching the results closely. don't laugh. newt has a new sheriff in town, chuck norris.

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newt gingrich wants voters in south carolina to remember one very important distinction between himself and his chief opponent mitt romney. you just need to read between some pretty wide lines to figure out exactly what it is. >> arizona a georgian i find a lot of places like tommy's ham house to be familiar. i don't think they serve new england clam chowder here. >> yes, that's right. to paraphrase newt, he's not damn yankee. gingrich is talking a lot of code about poor people and food stamps and presidents. and as vile as his talk is ft, it seems to be pushing him toward victory. romney is starting to talk a little code himself, too, about who is going to win today. >> we're going to work tirelessly to make sure we win this thing. not just here. we like to win here, of course, but we got a long way to go. >> indeed. joining us u karen finney, msnbc

analyst and david corn a political analyst and dc bureau chief for mother jones. is it possible that newt gingrich, who on this very day 15 years ago was reprimanded as speaker, fined $300,000? has he managed to parlay an interview with his second wife where she made the most humiliating allegations against him? has he managed to turn this to his advantage? >> well, it's possible, i mean, who knows? may believe we'll see gingrich supporters for open marriages in florida. but i think there's two parts to this. seriously, there's two parts to this. number one, in a state like south carolina the idea of repenitence is potentially a very powerful, relatable kash t characteristics that may make voters say we've all sinned. that only counts if you believe he's really changed.

his grandiose behavior suggests he hasn't changed. women voters, he still has a very big problem with women voters. while it may work for him in south carolina where the primary of the republican primary ele electorate are men, in a general election which goes to the broader answer of electability, unmarried women is the fastest growing and most important part of the electorate. so he would probably have a significant problem with women who don't buy his answers. >> indeed, david, i guess like milton's paradise lost, satan is more attractive and beguiling than god himself. that seems to be the case for voters in south carolina, choosing between gingrich and romney? >> martin, i didn't know i had to read dante's inferno to understand newt gingrich. but we've talked about this for

months now. that the republican primary electorate is angry and mean. today feel not just opposition in terms of policy to barack obama, but disgust. sometimes hatred. and mitt romney did well not fully responding to that. but we've seen south carolina, which may be the meanest of the voters. he's using a bull horn to call him a food stamp president, to bash john king and williams to put him in his place. and it's not a surprise that it works in south carolina. the big experiment will be rather it works in florida and beyond. >> is rom niece's collapse principally because of newt's viciousness, or is it because romney is largely responsible

himself, because he will not give us a clear answer on releasing his taxes. >> i think the results of tonight will tell us some of that. i think to the point that david was making, it's still possible that they will kind of split their vote between santorum and gingrich. we don't know how that will shake out. with regard to romney, just as someone who this is now my 20th year in politics, it's shocking how unprepared his line of campaigning has been for his line of questioning. particularly when we know income disparity and the widening gap. to what is happening with every day americans in our country is really quite stunning? there's two parts to it. number one, it's a lot of self inflicted wounds. he seems so uncomfortable talking about his own wealth. if i'm a donor this idea in the

general election that may raise some questions. >> going back to milton's paradise lost. if satan triumphs in south carolina, do you think newt will have sufficient self control or do you think his grandiosity will grow and explode further down in the process? >> i can't believe you used the word self control in the same sentence as newt gingrich. the answer is no. one reason he's doing it is because he hasn't had self control. they want someone out there to be calling the president a kenyan born whatever. that's what is working for him

now. the weather is whether he has the discipline from an organizational point of view to raise the money. and newt cannot contain his own newtness. it's pretty unsustainable. i don't believe this country has nominated a presidential kapd candidate as mean and nasty as he is since richard nixon in 1968? so it's a real uphill challenge. he's trying to break the ceiling, this glass ceiling of meanness. >> i think you've made your point. david corn and karen finney thanks so much for coming out on saturday like this and helping us understand all of this. we do appreciate it. >> sure thing. much more from south carolina when we come back.

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so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ laughs ] hey! if they hadn't just covered the race before, but has it in his blood. a true south carolina native. joining us the one and only and nbc's craig vin, who is in columbia, south carolina stop laughing. it's all true. we have the advantage of your experti expertise.

this has become a very close fight, hasn't it? >> it has. here's the thing, martin. i talked to a voter yesterday in charleston who probably summed it up best. right now it's a matter between the heart hean the head. he was viewed by most voters as the most electable candidate. then you had newt gingrich who was probably more in line with the mentality of the typical south carolina gop primary voter. but they didn't think that he was necessarily electable. at some point all of that changed here. i've talked to a number of gop political operatives. not a question of whether he wins this thing by 5% or 10%. that could be very significant

moving the forward. # # 75,000 primary voters. that was the record here in south carolina. four years ago about 460,000. that's despite tornado watches in a good chunk of the center part of the state. low turnout in certain precincts. but in other areas, and this is particularly important. in certain areas turnout is extremely high. places like greenville and spartanburg. the up state. the upstate that part of south carolina is doing the most conservative part. 40% of gop primary voters four years ago came from the upstate. martin. >> just one final question. i understand you bumped into somebody rather well known in starbucks. is that right? >> yes. south carolina senior senator lindsay graham on the starbucks here this morning. i asked him what are you hearing? lindsay graham said my money is

on newt. he is someone who would have his polls. not just on the gop establishment, but also typically voter in south carolina as well. so i got the impression he was voting for newt. i also got the impression that he thought the lion share of voters hoar here in the state were also voting for newt gingrich. >> craig melvin and the expertise of a local man. thanks so much. you stay dry, my friend. >> stay with us for much more on the first in the south primary. >> stupid people are ruining america. [ kate ] many women may not be properly absorbing the calcium they take because they don't take it with food. switch to citracal maximum plus d. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption.

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where is mitt? >> polls are good. votes are better. >> gosh, that guy is ugly. we don't need cash to get rid of that clunker. we need votes. >> president obama wants to strengthen our military and will never apologize for america. >> mitt! mitt! mitt! >> i hope to win south carolina. then florida will be more interesting. i'm sure you want to come with us. >> stay informed. stupid people are ruining america. >> oh my gosh. i forgot. and if you're at all confused, just remind them. the only practical conservative vote that can stop the massachusetts moderate is newt

gingrich. thank you very, very much. >> i am not going to answer the gotcha question, am i interested in an open marriage? no, i am flattered that newt gingrich asked me. >> with your help today if you make sure all your friends and neighbors turn out. if you convince them the only practical conservative vote for is for newt gingrich, we'll have a very big success today. >> we need mitt! >> you know what, you're going to get me. i'll tell you that. >> let's get right to it on this primary day with our panel. grace is a political reporter with business insider. and she joins us now from south carolina. and here in new york goldie taylor. good afternoon to both of you. goldie. i have to put this to you. it looks as though mitt romney is doing well with female voters but gingrich is doing better

with male. do you think this proves that newt gingrich's second wife interview, do you think that has injured newt and helped romney zm. >> i don't know that it was an injury that wasn't already there. republican women who weren't going to vote for newt gingrich already knew he was a thrice married man. they knew the circumstances of his divorce. this man is right for america s what they're saying. for romney's part, he had a difficult time firing up gop voters, male or female, no what what the circumstances are on marriages or open marriages or closed marriages. he's had a very, very difficult time. the problematic thing is nikki haley, a gop woman out of the south has endorsed mitt romney.

she's going to be primary come next election for it. >> you really think that? >> i really do. >> grace, you've been covering the race on the ground and speaking to voters. have you seen a divide among gender lines? >> reporter: i have not. i'm not sure there is the divide. i think the perception is those who were inclined to like newt gingrich, felt that he performed really well in that debate. they felt that he defended himself and that her timing of the the interview was malicious and that she's bitter and those who are inclined to not support him -- rather. >> grace, do you think that the way newt responded to that interview, the beginning of the debate, do you think he transfer that had into an asset for himself? rather than something many people would have thought was a deficit? >> the women i've spoken to have very strong feelings about newt gingrich. but a lot of them are positive.

a lot of them felt like he put john king in his place and put the media in their place. and those who don't support newt gingrich thought it was an emission of guilt. >> the great thing about this race, goldie is it's all about sex and money. we've had sex with gingrich. we have money with romney. and this issue of his taxes. but is it fair to say in florida people won't care much about whether he releases tax returns? knot withstanding the demographic of the population. you'll look at the greatest generation older americans living in florida. they're going to say was he paying his fair share? and that's a real issue for him. and so there's going to be a difficulty for the people of florida. romney has a very strong organization. he has money. has people on the the ground.

newt doesn't have that today. if he catches a win out of south carolina, and i believe he will. he'll have the wind to his back out of florida. >> even though only two weeks to the primary. >> he had no ground game really in south carolina. and today. >> absolutely. grace. in your latest write-up you've given three possible scenarios for what could happen to newt gingrich after south carolina. he could flame out in florida. he could stick it out in florida. but could fail on supertuesday or make it on supertuesday. which do you think is most likely in your three scenarios? >> i think it's all up to newt at this point more so than any other candidate. he's really determining how his campaign is run. >> so you think he's controlling his own destiny? you really think that? >> i think he is. he's such a volatile politician that if he can hold it together, then i think he might be able to

pull through, at least until super tuesday. there's always with him the chance that he'll totally implode. >> do you agree with that? >> i absolutely do. the question is will newt implode before or after the gop nomination is given out. he has proven primaries are not coronation. we want to anoint hillary clinton in '08. we want to anoint mitt romney this time around. this is a real contest. it's going to go no the wire. >> very quickly, you think it's going to be newt, don't you? >> it's ne tonight. >> thank you so much. when we come back, much more from south carolina. will an endorsement from the action star who fought off a bear help the candidate who describes himself as one? >> god wanted me to be a bear not a gazelle. ♪ he was a 21st century global nomad ♪

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fifteen percent or more on car insurance. it's been a volatile week full of heavy attacks, fierce debates. what the palmetto state is used to come primary time. i'm joined by washington kor spobt and political writer for "the new york times" john harwood in washington, d.c. and from the heart of the beast in south carolina, nbc's ron mott. ron, i want to begin with you. you're on the ground there in south carolina. we've seen a busy day of activity. the candidates rushing around. what would you say the excitement level is now? pretty high? >> i would say it's very high, martin. good day to you. the turnout is supposed to be low in some areas.

. next the more evangelical part of south carolina. that may bode good news for newt gingrich and rick santorum. but we'll wait to see the polls close at 7:00 p.m. it's been a feisty week on the campaign trail. at the debates, mitt romney is not so much. he's had uneven performances at the debate. stumbles over his tax records. and so as we get to the finish line here today, it's going to be interesting to see who has the most bluster and the most energy at this point. newt gingrich is riding high. he came to the ham-egeddon. mitt romney beat newt gingrich there by 30 minutes. tfrs an interesting morning. we were hoping to get one of those west side story sharks versus jets dance-offs in the

parking lots. didn't happen. >> tough be fair and accept that newt gingrich is heavier mitt. it took him more time to get there. john, we spent so much time talking about mitt versus newt. no one is talking about rick and ron. what where the stakes for those who candidates you think? i think rick santorum has got opportunity based on the debate performance he has on getting himself back in the conversation. it doesn't look like that's a great shot. but that's some shot. ron paul will be there no matter what. ron paul's campaign, i talked to them yesterday. they said they felt they were satisfied that they were not going to finish as poorly as many people had expected. south carolina is not natural territory for ron paul because of the pro military sentiment in the state. and ron paul's view on u.s. involvement in wars overseas. if they could pass paul based on the the evangelical support he's

gotten, his momentum from a debate performance. he could get himself more in the conversation from florida. all the signs we have seen so far that all the momentum or the most ro bust is with newt gingrich, which may catapult him into florida and make himself competitive. most people still think mitt romney has the advantage in the long run. >> right. ron, going back to you for a moment. reading about the status of south carolina, you discover quickly the voters are fairly independent minded, often fickle. in reading the interviews that locals have given, it seems like people have been waiting. there we have 2,722,344 registered voters. do you get the impression that people are literally leaving it until the 11th hour to decide which way they're going to go? >> i think so. some voters said they were waiting to the last minute.

they wanted to hear everything they could from the candidates before they step into a polling station and poll for their candidate, i should say. i think if you talk about momentum, gingrich is clearly the one with the momentum at this point. he's carried this week like you can only imagine, a politician would like to have. in the run-up to a primary. mitt romney is the more electable candidate, is what a lot of voters are telling us, but there's something missing there that they do not like. and newt gingrich is the one filling that vacuum for the time being. whether he's able to parlay a victory if he gets one onto more victories down the line, we have to wait and see. a lot of folks think mitt romney is still the front-runner today. >> a final question to you, john. you know how costly these primary elections are for the candidates if newt gingrich wins today. the fact is in less than two

weeks there's a primary for florida. does he have the money and the organization to get himself together and run as strong, to use your word, robust campaign? >> certainly his fund raising to his campaign will pick up on his momentum from the last several days. one of the key factors is whether the super pac, the casino executive, does he pony up several more million dollars to have them decide that newt gingrich really has a shot. will other wealthy backers of gingrich step up? that's key. florida is a huge state. much more expensive than south carolina to advertise it. mitt romney has been on the air for more than a month. and to come from mind to really get something going in florida you have to advertise in multiple media markets. in jacksonville, orlando, tampa, miami. if newt gingrich wins tonight, he has a shot.

the odds are still with mitt romney. >> john harwood proves what i said. he knows everything you need to know about the primary campaigns. ron mott is there with the gingrich campaign. thank you for joining us, gentlemen. this monday don't miss the nbc news republican presidential debate, moderated by my colleague brian williams live from the university of south florida in tampa at 9:00, 8:00 central on nbc. next, $13 million buys a lot of voters, doesn't it? wake up!

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to find an authorized dealer near you, visit tempurpedic.com. tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. republicans running for president spent $13 million just on today's south carolina primary. that's an awful lot of money. an awful lot of irony as the election falls on the second anniversary of the supreme court's citizen united decision.

that ruling, which declared corporations are people, and can therefore give unlimited amounts of cash in support of the candidate now has those who supported it, namely defend themselves against the kind of ads that decision unleashed, like this one from a gingrich super pac. >> i agreed with governor romney on many things but this presidential candidate romney, i don't even know the guy. then again, he doesn't seem to know himself. >> come on. >> governor romney? >> wonderful ad. jonathan alter, a columnist for the bloomberg review and thank you both for coming in on a cold and snowy saturday in new york. break it down for us. citizens united. it's literally saturated this primary campaign, hasn't it? it's affected it in a pro found way? >> it really has. we'll look back at citizens

united as being one of the most important decisions of the early part of the 21st century and one of big questions will be what comes out of it. just some kind of new court that gives a different decision on campaign finance reform isn't really enough. they need to go back and also revisit something called buckley vers versus vallejo that said money is speech. my argument would be the only way we're going to deal with this just air pollution that we have over the airways. >> saturation. >> saturation that is degrading our politics is to have a constitutional amendment, maybe a five-year process but begin the process of creating a movement that says that money is not speech and that congress has a lot of ability to regulate the role of money in politics.

>> notwithstanding crystal, what john says, we started this campaign with newt gingrich whining like a baby and complaining about being hit by the romney super pac ads and low and behold, he brings out exactly the same thing. >> that's exactly right. to jonathan's point. if you look at the impact that sit zens united has had on just this campaign, you could argue it was the most important factor because newt gingrich was set to win iowa easily until he got destroyed on air by romney and perry and by ron paul. and if he had won iowa, and then romney of course wins new hampshire and gingrich was set to win south carolina, that's a totally different ball game than what we're looking at. right now i would say gingrich does have a better chance of winning the nomination than a week ago but you have to say romney is in the driver's seat. if it hadn't been for citizens united and the ability to spend

unlimited unattributed amounts of money, we would be looking at the complete different landscape. >> crystle is making the point that the content is secondary and subservient to the amount of money you spend in attacking your opponent. >> that's become clearly the case. i actually don't think romney is in the driver's seat. i'm not sure that the effect of the super pacs on the complex gs of the race is the real issue, to me it's the effect of the super pac sludge on our process, on our democracy. >> on the whole -- >> the idea that a very very small group of anonymous individuals unaccountable can shape our politics and pour maybe hundreds of millions of dollars into our politics. we can have a dozen people buying a presidential election, is that the kind of democracy we want? we have to ask these really fundamental questions. >> i want to point you don't, we

spent a lot of time focusing on influence of corporations on this and individual wealthy donors, ideologually aligned with the candidates. i think this isn't clear cut that who think gingrich would be a much weaker candidate. would a wealthy democrat throw a bunch of money into the super pac to help him beat up mitt romney. >> i don't think that's going to happen. one of the interesting developments of this year is that democrats generally don't like this whole super pac thing. >> is that because they are poor? >> no there's a lot of rich democrats. sorry to be cynical. >> they are more idealogically to finance reform and oppose this type of process. bill burton has one of these super pacs not really as rich as

karl rove's, it's not working on the democratic side and obama will fund his campaign with the more than 1 million small donors he's already assembled plus some wealthy money from hollywood and wall street. but that's going to be a smaller component than the average $100 a person donation which is a small democrat way of doing it. >> i was going to throw out there. in my evaluation of the evidence, the republicans are also more practice and more skilled in the dark arts of politics thanks to schooling from lee atwater and. >> they do. >> and that's what the super pacs are for, to say things about your opponent that should be beneath the candidate. you see that dynamic where the super pac puts something out and the candidate says, that wasn't me. >> both of you very quickly. we only have about 20 seconds. who will win tonight? >> gingrich. the question is will he win by double digits. >> gingrich. he's got the momentum and i

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