late-night dinner. >> what did you learn? >> lasagna is not a cuban food. >> really? that's a shocker. all right, very good. thank you guys so much! it's great to see you here! help us out. if it's "way too early," what time is it? >> it's "morning joe"! all right, we'll see you tomorrow. stick around right now for chuck. thank you, thank you, thank you! ah, the music, and the winner takes it all in florida today. mitt romney so confident, he's literally singing on the campaign trail. but even with polls showing a big lead, the attacks on gingrich haven't let up. can he score a double-digit win? gingrich has been outspent 4-1, but he's unleashed new attacks and rolled out a series of new backers to try and catch romney again, or at least beat the spread. but will this new crew of supporters stick with him after florida? and the rapidly changing hispanic demographic in florida isn't just impacting the

republicans. we'll hear how democrats are also rethinking how they will target this critical swing state. it's tuesday, january 31st, 2012. this is a special edition of "the daily rundown" coming to you from nbc's election headquarters here in new york city. i'm chuck todd. let's get right to my "first reads" of the morning. polls are open in the sunshine state. if mitt romney wins tonight, is it the beginning of the end of the republican primary or more of the end of the beginning? monday in a five-city rush through the state, gingrich claimed he'll be in the race through the convention. >> all of our friends in news media who are very excited and eager to end this race as early as possible, ideally, with somebody that they know obama can beat, they all want to know what's going to happen after florida. we are going to go all the way to the convention and we are going to win in tampa. >> tell you, newt, on that one, i don't know many members of the media that want a good story to end sooner rather than later. anyway, but there was a bit of

coming apart at the seams. he ran perpetually late. he arrived on stage nearly two hours late in tampa. he rolled out surrogate after surrogate, herman cain, todd and sarah palin even got mentioned, rick perry did a tampa tv stop, a parade of validators. but even his supporters did so with caveats. >> if you were voting tomorrow, you would vote for newt? am i interpreting that right or not? >> i'd keep the process going. that doesn't mean that i'm out there only boosting one candidate. i'm going to continue to say good things about every gop candidate. >> and then there was hermane cain this morning on the "today" show doing the same thing. >> i could be very comfortable with mitt romney. because look, if you look at mitt romney and newt gingrich both, one has some negatives that are going to be attacked, the other has some negatives. the only difference is what negatives. i didn't get involved with speaker gingrich's tactics and i haven't been involved in governor romney's tactics.

>> by the way, herman cain said his biological clock would prevent him from running for president any time in the future. making the case he could still win, gingrich cited a poll conducted before last week's disappointing debate. >> let me just say, the polls are all over the place. we just got word of a brand-new poll that came out about an hour ago that says we are now tied 35-35. >> yeah, it may have come out an hour ago at that time, but it was conducted a long time before. gingrich unloaded a series of attacks, though, on mitt romney, yet again. >> we're thinking about printing up a poster. over here, it would say "the george soros candidates, romney, obama." your money recycled through goldman sachs to mitt romney to tell you a bunch of falsehoods. what a pathetic situation, to be running for the president of the united states with nothing positive to say for yourself. no obama and no romney's about

the same. >> you know, but those attack lines took on an air of desperation at some times, like this ultimate pander. >> governor romney cut off kosher meals for jewish senior citizens who are on medicaid to save $5 a day? for $5 a day, he said, no, you can't follow your religious prescription. >> well, there you go, it's florida, so that's why you had to classify that one as a pander. but let's remember, february is setting up as a very tough month for newt gingrich, especially if he comes out of tonight a double-digit loser at this point. the romney campaign, meanwhile, really wants a big win like this. mitt romney is leading by double digits in most of the polling, and he's sounding very confident. >> with a turnout like this, i'm beginning to feel we might win tomorrow, what do you think? >> and then there was this. he broke into song. ♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies for amber waves of grain ♪

♪ for purple mountains majesty above the fruited plain ♪ >> could have been worse. the falsetto there trying to break through. despite his lead, romney has learned his lesson from iowa, and that is don't let up on gingrich and almost ridiculed him at an afternoon event yesterday. >> i know the speaker's not real happy, speaker gingrich. he's not feeling very excited these days. he's -- i know, it's sad. he's been flailing around a bit trying to go after me for one thing or another. and you watch it and you shake your head. it's been kind of painfully revealing. >> and he told reporters on his campaign plane over the engine noise what he thinks of gingrich's vow to stay until the race returns to florida for the convention. >> that's an indication that they think they're going to lose. when you say i'm going to go on no matter what happens, that's usually not a good sign. >> let's look at the numbers.

after tonight, only 5% of the delegates will have been picked at all. we do have a long way to go for anybody to get to that magic number for 1,144. and considering the history of gingrich's rises and falls, what incentive does he have to get out at this point in time? anyway, finally, let's talk about the primary tonight by the numbers. we'll be watching turnout, of course. 633,000 votes have already been cast in this state through absentee or early voting. in 2008, more than 1.9 million floridians cast republican primary ballots. voters in the sunshine state have been watching, as on repeat, more than $27 million have been spent on ads, maybe up to $30 million when it's all done. $16 million of them yesterday was romney and his super pac alone, and overwhelmingly negative. 92% of all ads airing this week in the state of florida have been negative, according to cmac. why? the mushrooming influence of the outside groups. interest group ads are up 1600%,

if you can say that from 2008, from 3% to 44% of the ads that have been aired in the republican race so far are from the super pacs. now, another important number tonight, 50. that's the number of delegates the winner will take away from florida. but with the delegate leader still in the low 20s, we have a long ways before 1,144, the number needed to win. and after tonight, we'll be just 5% the way there, as i said earlier. the final number to watch, 7:00 p.m. local, the time polls close in florida and we say local because there is a central time in florida. so nobody will be calling any race at any point in time before 8:00 p.m. eastern time, though you will see returns come in starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. florida is one of those that do count polls pretty fast. all right, in the past week, newt gingrich has expanded his attacks on mitt romney. he even went after his ties to goldman sachs, went after his approach to religion, his big-money backers, and even his relationship to former florida

governor charlie crist. >> as governor of massachusetts, he was pro abortion, pro gay rights, pro tax increase and pro gun control. now, that makes him a moderate in massachusetts, but it makes him pretty liberal in a republican primary, which probably explains why he hired charlie crist. >> governor crist joins me now, now a registered independent, of course, famously so after 2010. governor crist, nice to see you, sir. >> good to see you, chuck. >> welcome back to florida. wish you were down here. >> i wish i was there, too, and florida's like five states. >> you are a floridian, aren't you? >> yeah, i am, and it's easier sometimes to do the work from here. now, four years ago, you were the reason, you put john mccain over the top, your machine, the state party, that helped put mccain over the top. as a political analyst, when you hear newt gingrich going after you and using you, an ideology, to go after romney, is that good republican primary politics? >> maybe it is.

i really don't know. you know, i'm an independent now, so it's nice to be a spectator of all this. but i think it's pretty clear what probably will happen today in florida. as you mentioned in the lead, you know, a lot of the polling indicates that romney's doing very well in the sunshine state. that probably will be borne out. i think the remaining question is, you know, what is the margin of victory? but maybe more importantly, what happens after florida? where does the campaign go from there? and you know, how many people continue to stay in and stick with the fight, that's really what the story, i think, will be after the polls close at 7:00 tonight. >> you know, you were a big proponent of moving florida up. and i'll admit, i liked the idea of florida being early, but i'm biased as a floridian. but let me ask you this, when you watch that basically tv ads are the reason somebody wins, a lot of times, particularly in a state like the size of florida, this early in the process, is that good for the process? >> well, i think it's good for florida. certainly, it's good to have as many people focused on the

sunshine state, what people in florida are talking about, the economic woes that we're going through, the housing crisis that we have suffered. those things are very important from a national perspective, and i think it's important that florida's earlier for this reason as well -- florida really is a microcosm of the country. you know, all due respect to south carolina, iowa and new hampshire, but florida is such a mega state, the fourth largest state in the country. having an opportunity for a state this size to weigh in this early i think really does put a national perspective on the campaign and for the candidates. >> okay, but let me ask you this, have you felt that you understand, for instance, the housing policies of newt gingrich or mitt romney? >> we haven't seen a lot on that and that's a good point. you also mentioned that 92% of the ads we've seen in florida have been negative. it's been dramatically negative, and you can't turn on your television, your radio, your mailbox, and not see some of this negative stuff that's coming at people. i've never seen the volume of it

like this. none of us have. the super pacs, as you indicated earlier, have a lot to do with that, but it's been remarkably negative, unfortunately. >> let me ask you about your future a little bit here. you're now a registered independent. there's been a lot of speculation that if there's ever going to be a year where an independent candidate for president tries to do this, this would be the year. there's a little bit of unease on the left, you know, the occupy wall street movement not happy with the democrats, the tea party not happy with the republicans, that somehow, some sort of populist from an independent or a third party would rise up. where's your head on that? do you encourage, do you want to see an americans elect, for instance, get off the ground? do you want to participate in that process? >> what i think all americans want to participate in is a coming together of the country. i don't think we've seen this level of divisiveness that i can ever recall. and i think what we really need to do is -- you know, people can

be proud to be republicans, proud to be democrats, proud to be independents, but at the end of the day, we all have to realize, we're americans, we're going through a tough time, we need to come together tomorrow the good of the country to do what's right for america going forward, and i really think that's what most americans yearn for and thirst for. >> so you don't want to see a third party? you actually think that will divide things more? >> i don't know that you can divide things any more than we've seen already, to be honest. but i think what we need to do is have people come together. i mentioned it last night, and i think it's important that we realize that in the past, people like ronald reagan and tip o'neill were able to work together, even though they had very different philosophies. at least, you know, when they concluded their debate and their discussion, they were able to work together to come out for honest compromise to do what's right for america at the end. it's been a while since we've seen that, frankly, and i know that we desperately need it for our country to move forward. >> you know, there's been this sort of regular rumor in florida

circles that you might some day run as a democrat. could you ever envision that? >> i'm envisioning enjoying the private sector very much. i'm working with a great law firm, morgan & morgan here in florida. we're fighting for the people. get ooi get to spend more time with my wife, carol, and that's a pretty nice place to be. >> all right, but you didn't -- would you definitively every rule out running for office as a democrat? >> i wouldn't definitively rule out anything. i enjoy being a proud floridian. i love this state and i look forward to a bright future for florida. and i invite everybody watching to come down to visit. >> let me ask you this final question, does president obama deserve re-election, in your opinion? >> i think we'll find out. you know, i think the guy's trying awfully hard, i really do. and i've had the occasion to visit with him several times. and i think it's going to be a close race. i think a lot depends on who the republicans nominate. we'll learn a lot more about that by 7:00 tonight here in florida. but i think that the man's trying hard, and we'll see what the future holds.

>> is he somebody you'd consider supporting? >> consider? sure, i would consider that. i really think he's sincere and genuine. i think we have a lot of time, a lot of issues to talk about. but i think in his heart, he's trying to do what's right for the country overall. >> all right, governor charlie crist, i will leave it there. thanks for coming on this morning. florida right in the spotlight, right where you wanted it when you signed that bill to move it up early. thank you, governor. from the panhandle to the keys, from the i-4 corridor to little havana, my home state of florida is unique among all swing states. it is a microcosm of the entire country. so, how will that diversity play out at the polls today? we'll show you what to watch for in the sunshine state. that comes up next. got the little gadget out. but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. i'll tell you what's not on there but what he is probably going to do today, which is stop by the auto show, which is in washington, d.c., today. always thinking about messaging for the re-election, having to do with a certain car company,

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well, mitt romney's fate in florida will likely be decided by just a handful of counties, including ones like miami-dade, which he lost badly back in 2008. joining me now from tampa, "the new york times" national political correspondent jeff zellny and political senior reporter jonathan martin. this is becoming a tuesday regular feature here, so happy super tuesday to both of you. you guys aren't going to be able to see this, but we've got

updated maps here of the big ten counties. and jonathan, we're looking at the ten counties that make up 50% of the overall total vote, six media markets, miami, west palm, orlando, tampa, ft. myers and jacksonville. what are the romney campaign most concerned about? >> i think they're actually feeling very confident about south florida especially. the numbers among hispanic voters looking very strong for him in miami-dade, and they spent a lot of time here, chuck, in tampa and along the i-4 corridor in recent days. they were in the county yesterday not far from here, so i think they're feeling good. interesting, chuck, four years ago, romney did really well in jacksonville, in northeast florida, because he ran as the more conservative candidate to mccain. i'll be curious how he does there this time. the polling we've seen so far has his weakest spot in the state north florida, so i think that will be interesting to watch. >> jeff, you wrote this morning

that the romney campaign really wants a double-digit win, in fact, wants a bigger win in florida than gingrich got in south carolina. that's a tall order. >> it is a tall order, and it's a bit of expectations setting sort of internally, but that's their benchmark, that they view sort of the disappointing south carolina primary results will be sort of xor sized, if you will, so they're not going for a convincing, commanding win. but john's right, the interesting place in florida to look is up in jacksonville, duvall county, northeast florida, because he was running as a conservative last time and now he's not necessarily the most conservative candidate here. but immigration also in south florida. i was in miami-dade over the weekend interviewing voters at events and rallies. people do have concerns about mitt romney's immigration program, some of his own supporters in the state have concerns about his immigration program -.

or immigration views. so i think that will drive down some of his support in some of those areas. >> i have the 2008 florida county map here and romney's in green. and really, the only one that matches up with the ten largest counties is duvall, jacksonville, which, by the way, as brad todd who worked on the rick scott campaign called jacksonville, the second largest city in the state of georgia. so, it should be a place newt should overperform. >> right. >> jonathan martin. so, we will shall see. but jonathan, going back to gingrich, he doesn't seem to have a strategy in florida. it's been all messaging, but i haven't seen an overly played georgia card, for instance, in jacksonville. >> no. look, i think the problem that newt has had here is the problem that he had in iowa, the attacks on him have gotten into his head and that has sort of consumed his entire focus. and romney folks knew that, and that's what the goal was entirely, as jeff and jim reported on sunday, was to get in newt's head, and it's worked

effectively here. look, we saw newt yesterday here in tampa. it's hard to discern a message, besides the fact that he's angry towards romney. obviously, that's not terribly effective. he does have an element of strong message, which is pitting himself as the leader of this insurgent movement against the establishment. the challenge is, he can't just drive that message. he sort of scatter shot all about. chuck, one last thing on the map, though, if i could. i think the other reason why north florida is going to be fascinating to watch tonight is because it's going to give us a sense of what's ahead in march, when this primary does move to the deep south states. as you know, chuck, a lot of the counties in the panhandle, in north florida, the cracker counties, if you will, more resemble georgia and alabama than they do florida. so, it's going to be interesting to see if romney can really show some signs of strength in and around places like pensacola, panama city, tallahassee and jacksonville. >> and jeff zeleny, one race,

these are the ten closest counties between mccollum and rick scott in 2010. what's been fascinating is ideologically, the whole idea of the insurgent versus the establishment in a florida republican primary. we just saw this primary take place in 2010, but there's been two big differences. one is money, and that is, rick scott was the one with money four years ago. >> right. >> no question. >> and the insurgent this time, it's mitt romney. and it seems to be a little bit of message, even, somewhat, where rick scott did have one message he was driving home all the time, jobs, jobs, jobs. newt gingrich not so much. >> not so much at all. and you're right about the rick scott thing. it's kind of a bizarre change of roles here. you see a bill mccollum introducing newt gingrich at a lot of his rallies. he was the establishment candidate back then up here in the florida primary of 2010. but the rick scott analogies don't line up for newt because of the money being spent. if you watch the television ads,

we've said this again and again, but it is, the gingrich campaign is just being out-spent considerably here. so, going forward as this race moves out of florida, goes to nevada and other places, the biggest question is, are the super pacs, are the supporters of newt gingrich going to keep writing checks to keep him afloat, or are they going to have sort of a change of heart on wednesday morning when the results come out of here in florida and that is going to sort of answer the question of how he looks going into super tuesday. >> and in case you needed a reminder about the i-4 corridor, it's cliche, but look at that. all of the closest ten counties here between mccollum and scott, all but two of them are essentially in the orlampa media markets, if you will. >> i like it. >> the megalopolis. >> that's why the candidates were there yesterday. >> exactly. that's why they do it. >> one more point, chuck, if i could. the other key difference between rick scott and newt gingrich is that rick scott drove the absentee effort. as you know, you can vote early here in florida, you can vote

absentee in florida. scott's put a lot of money into that, same way that romney did. gingrich organizationally just could not do that so on election day today, gingrich already starts out in the hole because of the early votes. >> it's amazing, it's my understanding rick scott sent direct mails to snowbirds in cincinnati. anyway, that's how much he was trying to win that back in that september primary. jeff zeleny, jonathan martin, our now regular super tuesday duo. thank you both. >> thanks, chuck. >> we'll be more. wall street is feeling optimistic. we'll tell you why. "the market rundown" is next. plus, the democratic strike. they're not waiting for the race to shake out in florida. they're in miami today. we'll get the story on their action and their plans to hold on to the critically important hispanic vote in that state. question, who was the only governor of florida to become president? the winner will get a follow-up super tuesday for us.

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optimism and gratitude, participants follow a ten-week curriculum building up to a 5k running event. barker looks to pass on lessons of teamwork, self value and community, one step forward at a time. this "msnbc profile in progress" is brought to you by capella university. come on, admit it, you love the music. we are less than a minute from the opening bell. time for the market rundown. jackie deangelis is here. >> good morning, chuck. looks to be a higher opening on wall street after positive sessions in asia and europe and a slew of earnings out this morning, including numbers from exxonmobil and pfizer. exxon earned $1.97 a share for the fourth quarter. that's 1 cent above street estimates. pfizer earns 3 cents above estimates, but this lowered guidance by a nickel per share. another possible positive sign for the economy. a survey by the fed finds that banks are seeing more small businesses apply for loans. that's the highest level since 2005.

economists say that that could signal companies are more confident in the prospects for their businesses and the country, which could also lead to expansion and more hiring. and if you filed your taxes already, you may have to wait about a week longer to get your refund. the delay is caused by new safe guards that the irs installed on their computers to prevent refund fraud. this is limited to people who filed returns before january 26th. that's what we're watching. chuck, back over to you. >> thank you, jackie. "the daily rundown" is back in 30 seconds.

welcome back to our special florida primary edition of "the daily rundown." you're looking at live pictures here. it's a polling place in winter park, florida, just north of orlando. as we've told you, it's winner take all tonight. and as you can see on the screen here, we're now just about 10 1/2 hours away from the final poll closings in the panhandle. a few other headlines this morning. secretary of state hillary clinton will be at the united nations today. she's pressing the security council to support an arab league peace plan for syria. the u.n. estimates some 5,400 people have died in the opposition uprising there since march. more than 200 have been killed in the past week. the senate is considering a bill today that would outline a clear-cut rule to ban insider trading by members of congress. it's expected to clear the senate this week as the house works on a more expansive bill. well, here you go for endonse endonsers, snoop dogg. he apparently likes ron paul. the rapper posted a photo of the presidential candidate on his facebook wall with the words

"because i said so." so, take that. wonder if it has to do with no federal governing rules on a certain product that some might smoke? anyway, across the country, hispanics make up 16% of the population, and of course, is the fastest growing group in the country. in order to win the general election and not just the florida primary, both parties will have to court a very important bloc. among hispanic voters, president obama beats governor romney according to our nbc news/marist poll. the 16-point margin is one point larger than how president obama did against senator mccain in 2008 in the state of florida. joining me from miami is california congressman xavier becerra. congressman, thank you for joining me. >> chuck, good to be with you. >> i have to say, they're sending a california democrat to florida. that tells me maybe the dnc nervous that republicans might make inroads? >> we're everywhere. and i'll tell you, the politics is more caliente than the

temperature right now. >> but let me ask you this, you saw the numbers. it's about the same. but there has been this concern among hispanic leaders i've talked to in the democratic party who say there is a little bit of an enthusiasm problem. and you and i have talked about this before on the show, with the white house. what is going to fix that enthusiasm problem, the president or, essentially, a negative vote against the republicans? >> i think the republicans are going to help fix that. but at the same time, if you watch the president's state of the union speech, if you've seen what he's been doing recently to try to fix our immigration system, the actions of the president will take care of that as well, because more and more people are having a chance to contrast what the president will face when it comes to a republican nominee. so, i think it will become very clear, and that's why you continue to see the president far out-distancing any republican, even here in the state of florida. latinos now out-number on the

democratic side, out-number their republican counterparts. >> but i do find it interesting, in our last nbc/"wall street journal" poll, his approval rating has only been out-performing by a little bit. so, here's this part of the electorate that the expectation is, he's going to win 2-1, but the job approval rating is basically below what his expected vote total is. so, there clearly is some disappointment. is this about immigration? is this about the economy? a combination of everything? >> it's a combination of everything, i think, chuck, you're right. because every american, whether you're latino, anglo, african-american, asian, it makes no difference, you're feeling this. but at the same time, something in particular disturbs latino voters, and that's the lack of progress on immigration reform. and there i think it will become a lot clearer as time passes just how much a president tried and how much the republicans were the obstacles, especially with something as simple as the dream act, which the democrats in congress passed but republicans stopped through the filibuster in the senate, and

now with mitt romney as the leader in the republican side saying he would veto the dream act, it becomes very clear that there's a clear difference between the president and any of his republican opponents. >> why do you think that's not translating for newt gingrich? newt gingrich in our debate, we asked specifically about this, and he said he would not veto the dream act. he wanted to make changes, but he was careful not to use that language. he's been real careful in the language he's using to court hispanics, talk about immigration in a way that democrats have praised him a little bit on this. are you surprised that hispanic voters aren't rewarding him? >> i'm pleased that he hasn't been so anti-immigrant and that he's used a different tone, a more rational tone. the difficulty is, he's a johnny come lately to the issue. if you look at his history, his record speaks to one very close to what mitt romney is saying. quite honestly, it's almost the opposite. you saw mitt romney go from being very supportive of a comprehensive immigration reform to now being very tea partyish.

at the same time, newt gingrich went from being very tea partyish on immigration to now being more rational. and so, it's a very confusing mix. >> you know, there has been some -- you heard speaker gingrich in our debate and even governor romney agreed with this -- there seems to be a slice of the dream act that everybody seems to agree about, which is, if you are brought over here as a child and you end up fulfilling military service, you would get, basically, a path to citizenship. why not slice that off at this point and just get that part of the dream act passed? >> you could, but that doesn't go anywhere near resolving some of the issues. a lot of these families, whether they're military families, whether they're kids who essentially spent their entire life, never really knowing the place they were born, being split from their families, it makes it very difficult to proceed if you're a member of one of these families. and so, you can do it a slice at a time, but we've gone years waiting for a fix to the system, which is really broken. so, we really should tackle it

now. most everyone agrees bipartisanally what we should do. it's just a matter of having the political guts to do it. >> it's funny you say this about the politics of it, because there's going to be some cynics who are going to say, well, will anything get done in an election year? because you know, maybe democrats don't want to compromise too much because they want a big turnout among hispanics. republicans maybe want to get, you know -- is there a chance that you cut through sort of the cynical nature of election-year politics on this and something gets done? >> and chuck, you know this well because you've covered this for so long, the way d.c. operates. the public is way ahead of the politicians on immigration. by 2-1, most americans say get this thing done, get it fixed, give those who have been here a long time, haven't violated the law, will learn our language and our culture a chance to stay, pay our taxes. but the politicians see this as a horse they can continue to beat. at some point, the politicians will catch up to the public. and you know that once the politicians sense that the

public is at a different place, they'll jump. and so, can something happen this year? sure. is it likely? no. >> all right. california congressman xavier becerra, democrat from california but making the trek on behalf of the dnc to florida today. you're right, there's nothing like miami politics, and that's a whole different story. you've never experienced political warfare like miami local politics warfare. congressman, good to see you. thanks for coming on. >> thanks, chuck. the super tuesday panel will be here next, but i can't go without giving you the "white house soup of the day," and it's, frankly, my favorite soup, because you can put anything in it, minestrone, italian for left-overs. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ female announcer ] goodnight gluttony, a farewell long awaited. goodnight, stuffy. goodnight, outdated. goodnight old luxury and all of your wares. goodnight bygones everywhere.

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bombing of pan-am flight 103. he was sentenced to life in prison with a minimum of 20 years. a second defendant was acquitted and set free. >> well, that's "the daily flashback." al megrahi was found guilty in the lockerbie bombing. he was released in 2009 on so-called compassionate grounds, diagnosed with terminal cancer, months to live, but megrahi is still alive and late last night reiterated his claim of innocence. voting in florida has been under way for two hours as republican primary voters make their mark on a contentious primary battle. but there was no hint of that when romney held his final event last night in the villages. he led what was an older crowd in song. ♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies, for amber waves of grain ♪ ♪ for purple mountains majesty

above the fruited plain ♪ >> joining me, herald lewis, host of new york 1's "inside city hall i d." there might not be a more fun political channel in america. >> there is not. >> politico's maggie haberman and republican strategist mike duhaime, rudy giuliani's campaign manager and ran chris christie's effort in new jersey and now has a new job. it's an old job. >> the senatorial committee, republican senator committee. >> which is the second biggest battle after the presidency, which is control of the u.s. senate. >> that's right. >> let's go to this campaign. shockingly, it's ugly. the guy losing is complaining. i want to show how romney, though, maggie, is not letting up, not taking his foot off gingrich's neck. here's what he said yesterday on freddie mac. >> i think the real reason he hasn't done so well connecting with the people of florida is that people actually saw him in

those debates and listened to his background, his experience, and they learned, for instance, that he was paid $1.6 million to be a lobbyist for freddie mac and they said that's not what we want in the white house. >> you know, maggie, on one hand, they learned their lesson from iowa, they can't stop with gingrich, because if you let up just a second, he might find oxygen. on the other hand, at some point, he's got to be the guy that starts bringing the party together. that's a fine line he's got to walk. >> absolutely, and i think they see no percentage in stopping before florida. i do think you're going to see a change in tone this month. this is not a month where newt gingrich is going to be competing heavily for any of these contests. his team is already downplaying nevada, arizona. we don't know what his money situation is, but i do think that the romney people got very spooked by what happened in south carolina especially, and i think also, his stronger debate performance made them think, you know, he can be tougher, and that can actually play well. but i agree, at a certain point, his own negatives are getting pretty high and he's got to be careful. >> mike, anger at mitt romney was a theme four years ago. seems like rudy giuliani feels

like he still hasn't fully gotten over it sometimes. it sort of shows through once in a while. newt and santorum aren't happy with the tone. let's play clips from both of them yesterday about the tone. >> what a pathetic situation, to be running for the president of the united states with nothing positive to say. >> i'm sick and tired of candidates who think they have to do anything that's necessary, anything, to win an election. this is the most important office in our country in the most important election in our country's history. we deserve better than gutter politics that we've been seeing in this race. >> when you win something in a presidential primary and you see it slipping away, it's hard to deal with it, and i think both santorum in some ways, gingrich, they touched it, they saw it, the holy grail was right there and they didn't quite -- but

romney's got to figure this out, how not to both beat them and not alienate them. >> i think romney's done a great job this time around compared to four years ago, where most of the candidates were not saying anything nice about mitt romney. tim pawlenty and most of the republican establishment around the country that hasn't been in the race has supported mitt romney. so, i think he's a very different candidate than four years ago in his personal interaction. what you soo see right now are losing candidates and when you're losing, you need to draw a contrast. that's the nature of the campaign, whether on the tone or the issues. i think they'd be better off drawing a contrast on the issues than the tone because i think that's what most of the voters are driven by. >> the stats are unstanning. 92% of all ads run in the state of florida have been negative. and you tell me, have you learned anything about either newt gingrich, his housing plan, or mitt romney's housing plan? i mean, you know. >> the polls and the research suggests that you actually do a lot from negative ads, stuff that's not necessarily going to come out. we the press are not necessarily going to go find every last bit

of negative information and put it out there. on the other hand, i think there's something to be said for tough, tough politics. another man's sleaze is another man's toughness. the reality is, if you become president of the united states, our military enemies are not going to play nice, our trading partners and economic rivals are not going to necessarily play nice. and you know, you've got to have somebody who's got the ability to foresee it. and i think this is actually, ironically, where mitt romney's business advantage comes in. when you win in business, you slaughter the other side. their families don't eat. they're on the unemployment line. he's used to this kind of stuff and i think he's come into it with that kind of attitude. >> by the way, before we go, this is newt gingrich at a polling place a few minutes ago being asked by reporters -- it's a little hard to hear, but he's being asked by a reporter how long will this go, when will he get out. this is what he said. >> how close is this to being over, mr. speaker? >> i would say probably six months. >> six months? >> i would say june or july, unless romney drops out earlier. >> unless romney drops out earlier. but realistically, if you're newt gingrich, what do you tell

them? >> i think he will likely stay through march 6th, super tuesday. you have a number of states where he feels he has an advantage in and he woman to see that through. he's won one state. the question is whether or not he can get a real campaign off track. he's off message, talking about moon colonies. the romney campaign is much more in place. they probably have a 100,000-vote lead in florida before voting opens because of the absentee and early vote program. gingrich can't hold a candle to that. >> maggie, there was no sort of media market strategy with gingrich. >> no. >> i mean, you look at the joke about jacksonville, second largest city in georgia, i don't remember gingrich campaigning much there, playing that card. >> not at all. there's zero strategy. he talked about raising $5 million. where it's gone, i done know. they've barely been on the air. their super pac has actually rarely been on the air. this is largely a romney game. their events have been scatter-shot. the events they have done themselves have had a listless

feel. events they've crashed have done well. there is not much of a strategy to speak of. >> speaking of strategy, we'll get into the calendar, both in february, a short or long, cruel month, particularly for gingrich, and march, the march forward. who was the only governor of florida to become president of the united states? it was not reuben in askew. it was andrew jackson. he served for the military governor for a short time and always hated the state, apparently. why did we name a county after you, then? we'll be right back. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. i grow u, i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. [ female announcer ] at aarp we believe you're never done growing. thanks, mom. i just want to get my car back. [ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday.

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bring back the panel. errol, start with you. look at the freb calendar. a cruel month for hillary clinton. super tuesday, first news february and then sort of shell shocked and then february, a short month, was excruciating.

feels like -- newt gingrich may feel that. four caucus a beauty contest in missouri. arizona and michigan at the end. where does newt get his footing? >> he'll have to wait a couple weeks until the next debate. awaiting eagerly for that. possible his team might wake up and realize they have to get organized, get a strategy. a tough strategy. forgo states and put all their eggs in some kind of strategic basket. ron paul said that. i'm out of here, not coming in second or third. gingrich needs that discipline if he wants to make a decent showing. >> you guys had a skip state strategy. >> they just don't work. do they? >> it's hard to stay in the mix from a media perspective. same token, on your way towards losing you may want to try a different path. as ron paul, not winning florida, not a bad thought to go ahead. it's hard deeper are into the calendar to have enough money and resources to play in every

state. pick and choose your battles, just like in a general election. >> maggie, interesting to watch. newt brought what i call the talk radio cast of characters. basically everybody but rush and hannity was mission. that talk radio conservatives, thompson, reagan, the palins and herman cain in many respects. it's going to be a while before talk radio gets fired up about mitt romney. >> that's why newt gingrich is able to keep going this way. mitt romney sr. not bringing conservatives around. rick santorum together are the conservative vote. this is not going over towards mitt romney he has a point. again, how he stays in the mix mediawise is a big question. there's a window for him. that is the window the next few weeks. >> when here in new york, i have to be on time. chris jansing will get me. what do you got? >> a break from coverage, new york 1, 10:00 to 11:00 of the florida primary. >> hey, miami.

mike? >> new jersey. cutting income taxes 10%. chris christie. >> look at you. endorsing him for vice president? >> no. >> maggie -- you're getting in trouble for that one. >> berns and haberman live blog all night. keep reading. >> my shout-out to sarah blackwell, tireless producer. her birthday today. tireless producer for "daily rundown," work sms of the longest hours you could possibly imagine. happy birthday and i'm sorry that you're working late again tonight. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." stick with msnbc for all day coverage of the florida primary and tonight at 6:00 p.m., tune in to our primetime coverage. tomorrow, all the rauts and analysis place look where the race goes from here. coming up next, "chris jansing & company." stick with us. msnbc. the place for politics. bye-bye. my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke,

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i'm chris jansing. welcome to msnbc super tuesday coverage. winner takes all in the biggest contest today and the nastiest battle in the early primary season. while florida families lost everything in the housing crisis, newt gingrich cashed in. >> the contract says, no lobbying. period. i offered strategic advice. >> that's lobbying. if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a duck. >> there's something so grotesquely hypocritical about the romney campaign. this guy owns goldman sachs stock. >> swiss bank account, cayman island governor romney owns shares of freddie mac and fannie mae. >> if you check