good evening, i'm chris matthews in new york with a special late night edition, and we are doing continuing coverage of the michigan and arizona primaries. it is 9:00 p.m. on the west coast and midnight on the east coast. we are projecting the mitt romney has won in michigan and arizo arizona. it is a good night for romney in light of that, but he at least faced the prospect of a loss in his native state of michigan, but here are how the numbers played out. in mish ganchigan with 92% of te

counted he has 41% versus santorum's 38%. and in arizona, mitt romney has 47%, to rick santorum's 26%. and here is his remarks. >> the people who knocked on the doors made a tremendous difference. we didn't win by a lot, but we still won, and that is all that matters. >> and we came into the backyard of one of my opponents, and in a race that everyone said just ignore, because you have no chance here. and the people of michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all i have to say is i love you back. thank you. >> so the big question, what now? can romney keep up the momentum heading into super tuesday with ten contests a week from now or santorum who gave a passionate speech tonight translate to

something more than he got the night? with us are two msnbc political analysts. howard fineman and eugene roob binson, and also john harwood who is also with "the new york times." i want to start with you john harwood tonight, this is the question, analytically where are we right now tonight after the two fights in michigan and arizona? >> i think that mitt romney is on track to win the nomination. it is not going to be easy. lit go deep -- it will go deep into the spring and he has to fight and do well on super tuesday with ten states on the ballot, but one of the strategists said he feels good about four of the states, massachusetts, vermont, virginia and idaho. and of course, virginia and rick santorum and newt gingrich did not make the ballot, but it is a grind it out kind of thing, but as howard fineman said a few moments ago, the strategic doctrine of the campaign and every time a not-mitt candidate pops up, they grind them down

and they have enough resources and foundation the do that. >> and is there a state next week, howard, where you can see a gettysburg or stalingrad with rick santorum could turn it around? >> well, that would be ohio, and as richard nixon used to say, it is all about ohio and even though florida has taken over that role in the electoral college, ohio matters and matters to rick santorum. and john harwood is right the way he portrayed the overall shape of the race. it is romney's race to lose, but he could still lose it or be stopped or stuck. what rick santorum has the power to do right now it seems to me is less about winning the nomination than somehow preventing mitt romney from getting the majority, the 1,144 delegates he needs to amass. if you look at the math, it takes a long time. they are going to have to -- and

mitt romney has to continue to keep raising money. he has burned through i think -- correct me if i'm wrong, but $65 million or more already. he has to go back and raise a whole lot more money. rick santorum has shown he can do well in a state like michigan spending one-sixth or one-seventh of what mitt romney spent. so he can grind it out. mitt romney and newt gingrich can get money from the independent backers and ron paul lives off of the land, and the strategy now is to slow down and make it a torture wous and even more torture rus states than it is. and my colleague set it up that there is at lot of proportion of representation, and it is hard for mitt romney to get a knock-out blow and hard for the other people to win the nomination, so it is an arduous dance for weeks and months.

>> gene, can you give us a narrative of what has happened in the campaign as of 9:00 p.m. east coast time and where it is headed? >> mitt romney remains the presumptive nominees, but there's a lot of presuming to do between here and there. you know, look at super tuesday next week, and you could have santorum doing well in ohio, and potentially winning or at least denying romney a big win. you could have gingrich doing well in georgia, perhaps winning. and so everybody stays in the race, and romney continues to be the presumptive front-runner and nominee. this grind it out sort of campaign -- you know, it is -- i'm sure that romney would prefer to win it one in coupe and win ohio or georgia and win

the big states next week, maybe we would see some other people drop out, but meanwhile, as long as this goes on, romney has a lot of work to do, because he's got to find, i think, a voice. a more resonant voice and message that connects not just with the base, but with the independents and the, you know, the mass of voters he is going to need to be come ppetitive in november. i thought that was really a pretty shockingly flat speech he gave. >> i thought so, too, for this stage of the campaign. >> and john, it sounded like a fund-raising speech, and a business proposition. here is the question, does he have the money to run that nation, the four corner thing where he can run in all ten states and win five or six of them and blowout the opponents like he has been doing before up until tonight? >> well, he will pick the spots. i don't think that he will try to blow people out everywhere, because they are, and they have blown through a lot of cash in

michigan, but of course, any time you win two, it is a heck of a lot easier to raise money for the campaign and also the rich guys writing the big super pac checks are going to feel better when they wake up tomorrow morning than when they woke up this morning. i have to say that howard, you mentioned that michael steele when he was chairman of the republican party set it up so we would have a proportion al thin and did he do it because it was good for us on cable tv? >> he denied that. he totally denied that. >> let me go the howard, my favorite -- >> and chris, quickly, i will will say that i talked to a republican consultant today who said that the problem is that everyday this continues, the worse it is for the eventual nominee and probably mitt romney. >> and let me ask howard to turn it upside down, and here is the opportunity to give a narrative here, and you turn it upside down, and what we are learning is a lot about the guys, and admittedly the weaknesses and the lack of discipline in the case of rick santorum, but a lack of heart in the case of mr.

romney or lack of regularness, and isn't it good for the voters to be objective here to learn more about them through the long process? >> well, it depends what they are learning, chris. what this reminds me of a little bit potentially is like what happened to bob dole in 1996. back in that day, bill clinton was president of the united states, and they invented soft money and they collected $100 million of soft money and the moment that bob dole was nominated they carpet bombed him with $50 million of negative advertising. this is earlier now in the process, and mitt romney's tactics are such that he is inviting a kind of negative and really negative and nasty tone to the whole year which he would have anyway, so it is not really helping mitt romney in getting to know mitt romney apparently isn't helping with the voters, because his favorable and unfavorable numbers have gotten worse over the last couple of months, and that is one of the

reasons that the friends are complaining about the campaign. >> and i think that it was al gore who said years ago if you don't define yourself in american life, the enemy will. has mitt romney done that or failed to do that? dw. >> well, he is failing to do that and every establishment republican i have talked to in the last week, and there are quite a few has been depressed about the party seeing a winnable election potentially slip away. but i think that there is time, and the depression is premature, and this ising to be a close election. >> thank you, gene. long night, and we have to get out. howard fineman, and you gene robinson and john harwood. this is rick santorum speaking in grand rapids earlier this evening.

>> wow. [ applause ] >> a month ago they didn't know who we were, but they do now. what an absolutely great night. i am so thankful, so thankful to so many people here tonight. first and foremost, i just have to say to the people of michigan, you know, we came into the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said, well, just ignore, because you have no chance here. and the people of michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all i have to say is i love you back. thank you.

i also -- thank you. i also -- [ laughter ] as i said -- >> we love you baby. >> and not exactly through the mediums that i want you to get to know me, but we have an opportunity tonight to tell you more about who rick santorum is. i want to thank the folks up here on this stage behind me. my wife, karen, and my family represented here by elizabeth and john and at home the rest of the family. daniel and sarah maria and peter and patrick and our little bella, and i want to thank them for standing behind me not figuratively, but literally everyday of the campaign, and so thank you very, very much. [ applause ] i want the tell you about some more specifically about three people. first, someone who is not here that i have is not publicly thanked yet and i feel like i have been remiss at doing so,

and that is someone who i know is watching, too, and that is my 93-year-old mom. i am sure she is feeling very proud. one of her first jobs was in saginaw, michigan, and she was very, very excited that i was coming back here to michigan, but my mom is in a very, well, unusual person for her time. she's someone who did get a college education in the 1930s, and was a nurse and got a graduate degree even as a nurse and worked full time and when she married my dad, they worked together at the veterans administration, and that is where they met after the war. later on, they had me and the rest of the family and my brother and sister, and my mom continued to work. she worked all of my childhood year years. she balanced time as my dad did working different -- i am sorry to interrupt this speech, but it is important.

nbc news can project that the winner of the republican primary in the graeat state of michigan is mitt romney, and it is too close the call since the poll closings, but now mitt romney is the projected winner in michigan and with that we go back to rick santorum's speech. with a big heart and commitment can, and that is one of the reason s ths that i ende marrying the person i married here, karen. someone -- [ applause ] someone who is as strong as they get, someone who is i e met when we were, and she was just about to start the practice of law, and i was doing the same. i recruited her. in more ways than one to my law firm. karen was a professional and worked as a nurse for nine years and after that, we got marry and she walked away, and she decided to stay home and raise her children, but she didn't quit working obviously.

raising seven children is a lot of working but she fund time to be the author of two books and those books about really went to the heart of the family and something that she knows a lot about. she, too, has been that rock that has been beside me and been a great example of how it is important to balance that work and family and do so committed to making sure that you are the best at both that you can be. and now i'm proud that i have a daughter here in elizabeth who is a great part of our campaign. she goes out on her own and campaigns and the feedback i get is, you stay home, and just send elizabeth out, and you will be just fine. so, we have been -- i have been very, very blessed, very, very blessed with great role models for me as someone who goes out to do the job i'm doing right now to balance the rigors of running a campaign and trying to maintain a good and strong family. we all have to do that as

americans. we all have that responsibility to make both work and work as well as we can. and it is getting harder out here in america. it is getting harder for people to make ends meet, because we have a government that is crushing us every single day with more taxes, more regulations and the idea that they know better than you how to run your life. that is ultimately about what this race is about. it goes down to the very nature can of who we are as americans. are we a country that believes in big government? do we believe in the smart and the elite in the country to manage us or do you believe in free people in a free economy and building a great america from the bottom-up? what do you say? well, we put together a plan here in michigan and the first

100 days of our freedom agenda of how to turn the country around. and what we talked about is what is on the mind of people right now the rising cost of energy in this country. and it will put millions of americans back to work if we would unleash the entrepreneurial spirit of the energy sector of the economy, and we can drive down the prices and decrease our dependency on foreign oil. we can do it all, but we have a president who says no. we have a president who when the opportunity to open up federal lands for mining and oil and gas drilling says no. we have a president who has an opportunity to open up off shore, no. deepwater, no. alaska, no. build pa pipeline, no. we need a president who says yes to the american people and energy production.

it is not just the consumer affected by it, but many communities across this country. rural communities that have been struggling and you look at where the population loss is in this country and the unemployment is the highest. it is the areas where the government has shutdown and made it virtually impossible for us to use the natural resources to be able to get to that oil, to get to that coal or timber or whatever the case may be. bureaucrats in washington didn't care about flyover can country, and the sparsely populated areas that provide us the resources upon which we live. i was in one of those areas a couple of weeks ago in northwestern north dakota and i went to a little town in tioga, north dakota, and to tell you how small it is, it is about the fifth time i have mentioned the speech and i have yet to get a shoutout for them.

it is a small town. it is a small town. it could be a boom town, but they are nervous, because the president and the epa is hovering, and yes, they are developing oil on private lands, this oil. yeah, this is oil. oil, out of rock, shale, and it leaches oil, and in fact, the highest quality of oil, light swede crude. it can produce thousands and thousands of jobs in northwest north dakota, but they have trouble. they have trouble getting the investors to come here, why? because they believe, they believe that the government is going to shut them down or potential potentially pull the plug on them. they have a pipeline that they'd love to be able to build to get that oil to market instead of running truck after truck after truck through the roads of north dakota, and then on the rail. this crude that comes out of this rock is a premium product. but not in north dakota.

they have to pay and they get a $32 discount when they sell their oil. why? because we have a president who won't let them get their oil to market. [ audience booing ] folks we need a president who is on the side of rural america, smalltown america, and opens up the resources for america. [ applause ] and it is not just the energy industry that rural america thrive on, but of course, as you know here in michigan, it is manufacturing. one of the things they think that i felt very good about in the as well as we did here tonight is the message of creating jobs, manufacturing jobs for small town america, resonated here with america and how their lives could be better and they saw a vision how to

ladder of success could be built down to people with limited skills, but the desire to work hard and upgrade the skills to work in a manufacturing facility. we have lost from 21% of the economy to 9% not of the economy, but worker ins the manufacturers down to 9%. that is inexcusable and all of it because of government regulation and taxation. we put forward a plan, the "wall street journal" calls it supply side economics for the working man. the working men and women of this country to be able to get those jobs in manufacturing, to be able to get those skills, provide for their family, and the average manufacturing job in america pays $20,000 more a year than the average job in america. we can get those jobs back, and we need to slash the corporate rate for taxes to zero and let the regulatory environment which barack obama is destroying and crushing manufacturing, and we will repeal every one of barack

obama's big government regulations on day one. and of course, part of those regulations, the one of the things that we will repeal right out is obama care. that is the biggest issue in this race. it is an issue about fundamental freedom. it is an issue about whether you want the government to take your money and in exchange give you a right. give you a right. they are going to give you the right to health care and that is what president obama promised, but of course, when the government gives you a right, they can take it away, and when the government gives you that right, they can tell you how the exercise that right, and they do. not just what doctors you can see and what insurance policies

or how much you are going to be fined if you don't do what the government tells you to do, but even goes to far as to tell you how the exercise your faith as part of your health care bill. if the government can go that far, with obama care, just think what's next. ladies and gentlemen, we need a candidate who can go out to take on barack obama, who is -- who is an author from 20 years ago the author of free market health care savings account, and a fighter for replacing all of the programs across the country with a program based on you care, because that is what we believe in, in america. [ applause ]

we have a great conservative track record on not just health care but on taking on the big problems that confront this country. the deficit, the huge and expansive and exploding debt in the country. i have been an advocate ever since i was in politics for a ball lanceded budget amendment, and fought tooth and nail to get it passed and came within one vote but i will never give up that fight, and we will try to pass a balanced budget amendment to the constitution, but in the meantime we will do what nobody else has successfully done but i did, and that is to go out to end the entitlement programs at the federal level and give them back to the states and cut them dramatically to save money. people said we couldn't do it, but we did it. i was the author of welfare reform, and welfare reform which

cut the program to give it back to the states like we need to do with medicaid and food stamps and a host of programs that have been run by the state, and a whole host and that document, what is it called? oh, yeah, the u.s. constitution, yeah, that thing, right. we need to get those programs back to the states. we can save the federal government money, and more importantly, welfare didn't just save money or cut the rolls, but it saved lives and put people back the work and got people out of poverty and gave them something that dependency does not give, hope. that is what america is all about, giving opportunity and hope. >> all of our economic plan is based on a simple concept, based on what has worked for america

from the very founding. i wave this constitution at every speech and talk about it being the operator's manual of america, and it is how america works and the how of america, but there is another document equally important and that is the why of america, and that's the declaration of independence. in that declaration is these words that we hold these truths to be self-evident that all men were created equal and endowed by the creator to have inalienable rights and that is the most transitional phrase ever written. that phrase said that we are going to be a country with limited government and believing in free people to be able to form families and communities and churches and educational institutions and hospitals and be able to build a great and just society, and a free society from the bottom-up. that is how america works best. from the bottom-up. and that is the solutions that

we are going to propose for america, the bottom-up. the men and women who signed that declaration of independence wrote this final phrase, we pledge to each other, we pledge to each other our lives, our fortune and our sacred honorment when they signed that document, they had very little hope, real hope of actually succeeding in a revolution against the british. the british were the most powerful army, navy in the world, and they were ruled by highly educated, noble people. the uniforms were crisp and stiff. they looked good.

but their rulers ruled them from on high. didn't listen to them as they fought the revolutionary war. our leaders were different. george washington, the signature leader of america was different. he understood that the greatness of this new country was to have leaders who understood that in spite of their breeding and education, they didn't have all of the answers. but they could trust the people that rag tag group of people who stepped forward to volunteer to create freedom in this land. and they believed -- general washington believed, and in fact some of the boldest moves came not from him or the generals, but from the ranks. that is how america's freedom was won, leaders believing in the people that they had led

against those who just thought all of the answers resided in those in charge. ladies and gentlemen, that is what made america free and that is what will make america free in the future. thank you, and god bless you. thank you. rick santorum giving what is in effect a concession speech tonight. we got word that even though we called the race during mr. santorum's race, before the spee speech, mr. santorum did call mitt romney to congratulate him on mitt romney's win in arizona and in michigan. again, the big news tonight, mitt romney has won both of tonight's primaries, arizona and his home state of michigan. we don't know yet what the final margin will be michigan, but rick santorum giving a speech there with every indication that he is not only continuing the campaign, but moving forward

with a real populist inflection more so than in the past. >> we saw it. we just saw it. if romney gave that speech, no problem in giving the nomination, and we saw that to the extent that there are hearts and heads here, they are separated. t this guy can give a passionate speech, and i know you are doing the homework there without a tell prompter, and romney can't do what that guy just did, and that is important, and that means on the stump he can't turn people on and turn them on after he wins or loses. we will watch him give a speech tonight, and it will be a competent speech and i may be wrong, but he lacks this guy's passion and it is a real loss. barack obama can do both. he has a brain and he has a heart. and he can cause a thrill in the american people. because he has both. he can have a vision, and a passion to go with the vision. i don't see that it is getting together here for the republicans and it is a real challenge for them, and that is why this is rocky, and by the way on a political point, rick santorum just said i'm carrying this election all of the way to pennsylvania, because he is

going after marcellus oil up there, and he is going to sell this oklahoma as you said off camera and sell it in pennsylvania and going to be the minerals candidate up in npd nd and sell the fact that he can't win in the big metropolitan and big sophisticated suburbs that romney people have the country-clubbers, but he is going after the rural areas. >> but it is hard after a michigan loss to say i can win in states who have blue-collar voters. >> well he did -- >> well, he pulled the rock right out of the pocket. >> he did. >> and yes, he did. and we will hear from mitt romney who is expected to speak soon. and you are the orator on the stage here, and what did you feel about it reverend al sharpton? >> well, it was a good speech for him and not as good as iowa, but second to iowa. but again, i agree with chris, he is not up against a great

orator. so it is going to be in my opinion a lot better than what romney's going to have unless somebody has done some major can changing in mitt romney tonight. >> while you are hedging there, al. you are hedging. >> well, never count a orator out until the speech is over. >> you know how high the stakes are, and you can feel it when they take the podium, and mrs. romney will do what she has done is to thank the people in the room and then mr. romney will start in with the speech. >> and she has the best part of the speech. >> and in other words, she will do the human graceful stuff, and then he will read a tell prompter, because was they have not allowed him, and he did one of these one night without a prompter and they have not allowed him to go out there without a prompter since. >> well, these guys now know that every time they speak at the end of the primary night, they are speaking to the nation. it is a big deal, and the momentum out of the nights is huge, and they have been big inflection points and we have seen the momentum change with

who wins the races. mitt romney knows that he has actually can't count on having one arizona and michigan, tonight, but he has to count on a big speech. >> jimmy carter would do that after winning one of the surprise primaries and sit down with a top anchor person in a hotel room, and have a conversation and sometimes that is more effective, because it can talk to the people. >> i expect mitt romney to knock it out of the park right here, because it is his moment. his moment, and so much talk about him not doing well in michigan and he has the victory and the stage is set for him right now for the recovery and to redirect. if he is going to do it, now is the time to do it. >> lawrence i think that you nailed it earlier tonight, and you said that the problem with mitt romney's candidacy is that anything short of perfection is failu failure, because he is was the winner before he started. >> well, anything short of nine is what he won by last time versus the guy who went on to get the nomination, so how much do you have to beat santorum by tonight to rule him out from

getting the nomination? that is a wider margin than what romney will win by. >> and steve, what does romney have to aim at here? >> well, he was so close to being the de facto nominee of the party until missouri, and colorado and minnesota and until the santorum sweep. he was inches away, so they are not taking anything for granted anymore. he has to give a good speech. i think that he beat santorum tonight, but he didn't break him. the drama over michigan now moves to ohio which is a far more important state in the general election calculus than michigan is for the republicans, and so i think that when you look out ahead to the week ahead, he needs to start making a case and move beyond the gaffes and get into a clean start for the week to come, because it is a fast-moving week. >> and of course, what he is also moving into is a landscape where newt gingrich is back and newt gingrich was on hold from in terms of the billionaire money for these last two contests tonight, and his billionaire has hooked him up again for the next contests, and the gingrich campaign is back on

and he is back into a field that has newt gingrich who has beat him in the past, and complicates the effort to appear inevitable every time he is there. >> and once again, romney spent massively more money in michigan in this campaign than santorum, and santorum on the other hand was in ten days ago on the verge of winning this thing by a significant margin and imagine where we would be tonight without all of the santorum mistakes that occurred. this is not something that romney went out and won. it is something that santorum kicked away from himself with a lot of non-politic comments. >> you don't think that the romney and the santorum gaffes evened each other out? >> no, i think ththey have diff. romney talks about cadillacs and santorum decides romney is not enough, and he will run against john can f. kennef. kennedy whoe

popular than anything. >> let's listen to mitt romney. >> okay. first thank you was the first state to be called was a great victory in arizona tonight. and thank you, michigan. what a win. this is a big night. thank you very much. you know a week ago and it was just a week ago that the pundits and the pollsters, they were ready to count us out, but across michigan and arizona i kept meeting moms and dads and students and grandparents, and they were concerned a what about is happening to this great country of ours and i was confident that we could come together today and take a giant step toward a brighter future and so tonight their efforts have brought a great victory and we celebrate with the people

across these states. thank you. now, tonight is also particularly special for me, because this is the place where i was born. this is the place where i was raised. my mom and dad lived many years here and loved this great state, and i know that michigschigande the room, we thank you. and the people who knocked on the doors and made the calls and went to polls made a difference. we didn't enwin by win we didn't enwin by w by a lot, won, and this is all that counts. in arizona, special thank you to governor jan brewer and senator john mccain who were tireless. particularly senator john mccain who has been all over the country helping. thank you, senator. thank you, governor. they are out there. we have two sons out there who are celebrating with them. and the great thing about having

so many in our family, we can cover almost every race, so super tuesday will be a stretch, but we will find a way. our campaign is as you know about restoring the promise of america. last week i unveiled a very bold economic plan to jump start the economy, and it is going to get michiganders back to work and americans more jobs that they are crying out for and less debt and smaller government, and i will deliver on more jobs and less debt and smaller government. we will hear it day in, day out. more jobs, less debt, and smaller government. you know, there are a lot of people who are saying that if you are running for office you can't really speak honestly to the american people. well, we did. and i will. and because this is a decisive moment, i believe this is a time that requires real leadership in our country. times are tough. we need leaders who will live with integrity and who have the courage to tell the truth, and

have the experience to get the economy back on track. that is the kind of leader i aspire to be and that is the kind of leader i will be if i am president of the united states. our campaign is about more than just replacing a president. it is about restoring america's promise from generation to generation, americans have always known that the future would be better and brighter, and americans have believed in a tomorrow full of possibility and prosperity and that is what it means to be the land of opportunity. in america, you know that if you work hard and you can build a better life. if you teach your kids the right kind of values and help them to make the right choices in life, you know that the future is prosperous and secure and that deep confidence of a better tomorrow is the basic promise of america. today that promise is being threatened by a faltering economy and a failed presidency. four years, we warned that the

presidency was no place for on the job training. well, today, we have the economy to prove it. this president by the way likes to remine us that he inherited a economy in crisis, but he doesn't like to remind us that he had a democratic congress and senate, and he had majorities in both, and he could pursue any policy he pleased. did he fix the economy? did he fix the housing crisis? did he get america back to work? no, instead, he put us on a path of debt and deficits and decline. it is time to get off of that path, and back on the path of american prosperity. now, these days when he is not spending our money, or infringing on our rights, he's

busy running for re-election, and he believes that -- did you hear this, he believes he ranks among the top four presidents in american history, do you believe that? i would find a different spot for him. he thinks that he deserves a second term, and he says that we can't wait to which i say, oh, yes, we can. today we are $15 trillion in debt and real unemployment stands at 15%. you've heard that old saying about i need a vacation from the vacation, well, we need a recovery from this so-called recovery. as a nation, we have survived a great depression. we have weathered two world wars, and we have made it through toughtimes, and we have not come all of this way to give up now. we still believe in the hope and the dream and the promise of america. we know our future is better and

brighter than these troubled times. that unwavering conviction guides our campaign in this effort, and rallied millions of people to our cause, and it is the message that we will take to every corner of the country from ohio to georgia and tennessee and we have seen enough of this president over the last three years to know that we don't need another five years of president obama, because -- [ applause ] -- because he thinks he is unchecked by the constitution, and he is unresponsive to the will of the people, and in the second term, he would be unrestrained by the demands of re-election, and if there is one thing that we cannot afford it is four more years of barack obama with nothing to answer to. so we need to get him out of that office and back home where he belongs. new, you saw the budget -- [ audience chanting "mitt" ]

you saw the budget that he put o out, and it foreshadows what we will see ahead if he is the president. run away spending and record debt, they were the warmup act, and for an encore he wants to raise the taxes on the job creators and small businesses and families, and we are not going to let him do it. >> no. >> and in this campaign, i'm offering a real choice and a very different direction. i have a plan that will restore america's promise through more jobs and less debt and smaller government. president obama is making the federal government bigger, more burdensome and bloated. i will make it simpler, and smaller and smarter, and it is about time for that to happen. he raised the national debt. i will cut and cap the budget, and he passed obama carek and i

will repeal obama care. he lost our aaa credit rating and i will restore the aaa credit rating. he rejected the keystone pipeline. [ audience booing ] i will get the oil site we deserve. and by the way, i will open up the lands for development so we can finally get the energy in country that we need at a price we can afford. look, when it comes to the economy my highest priority is worrying about your job and not worrying about how to save my own. this president, you have heard that this president wants the raise your taxes. i will cut them. that is across the board 20% rate cut for every american. i will also repeal the alternative minimum tax and abolish finally the death tax.

and you know, he has now proposed raising taxes on small businesses and job creator, but i will not, and i will also lower the taxes 20%, and to make the r&d tax credit permanent, and return the money offshore back to america. let's finally have a tax plan that puts americans back to work. i have it, and we will get it in place. now, you know, he also proposes to raise taxes on savings an investments, and if i'm president, i will help families inv invest and save tax-free. yeah, i agree, it is about time. and he also has a extraordinary

gap in the policy proposals and do you realize that after saying that medicare and social security were in trouble, he has yet to offer a serious proposal for saving social security and medicare? i have a plan to save them both and unlike him, i have the courage to put my plan on the table for people to see. look, what this campaign is about with my plans about are creating jobs and raising wages for the american people. they are going to strengthen our entitlement programs for the next generation, and they will not add to the deficit. we will finally balance america's budget. now, beyond having a plan to get our citizens back the work, i have the experience to get our e economy back on track. i spent 25 years in business. i was also the steward of the olympics and the leader of a state. i cut the taxes 19 times.

i have turned a budget shortfall into a surplus. i know how government can kill job, and yes, i know how it can help create jobs, and i stand ready to lead our party to victory and our nation back to prosperity. we will get the job done. this is a critical time in america. it is our time for choosing. and this time, we have to get the choice right. i have said it before and i firmly believe it that this campaign is about saving the so soul of america. this election comes down the two very different visions of america. it is a choice can of becoming a nation of and by washington or remaining a nation of and by a free people, and a choice between an entitlement society and a land of opportunity. a choice between squandering america's promise and restoring that promise for future

generations. if you want to make this election about restoring american greatness then i hope you will join us. if you believe that the disappointments of the past few years are the detour and not the destiny for america, then i need your support. i am asking you to get out to vote and i'm asking you to go on mittromney.com to pledge your support in every way possible. i am asking you the join the fight for freedom to ensure that tomorrow is better than tomorrow. this is the america we were promised and this is the country we love. we have work to do, and we will do that work and take back america, and america is the greatest nation in the history of the earth, and we will keep it that way. thank you guys. you are the best. god bless the united states of america. thank you. former massachusetts governor, mitt romney speaking in novi, michigan after winning the michigan primary and winning the arizona primary.

chris matthews we said leading into this unfairly raising expectations that this had to be a great speech, and we felt that the consensus of the panel was that rick santorum gave a great speech, and what about this one? >> no. he said he wouget rid of the de tax? this is an appeal to fund-raising, and he said, i will get elected for the very rich, and what is the death tax? that is a -- who cares. >> it is a bumper sticker and symbolizes everything wrong about the tax code, they will tax you even when you are dead. >> and people with large amounts of wealth to leave to someone, and i thought that the speech lacked any lyrical quality or passion or beauty or vision. it was basically, you will make a better deal if i'm president and i thought it was a deal-making proposition and the

guy who worked for bane capital would make to a client. unfortunately or fortunately for the president, each of them have what a good president could be. one is analytical and a data minder and one who is a passionate guy who has a clear economic proposition, so they come together to become disintegrated. >> so, is there important that there was not a peep in here about rick santorum and all about barack obama? >> well, mitt romney said he had to win, and he did win. that counts. it is an important win for mitt romney tonight. had he lost michigan, there would have been panic and a meltdown in the republican party. the race goes on, but he goes on today in a better position than he was 48 hours markedly. when you look at the the speech, there was a lack of vision. he talked about recruiting people to the cause. listening to the speech, i don't understand what the cause is. he is not outlined an

affirmative vision for the future. and he has not defined conservativism or conservative approach to answering problem tas are real in people's lives all over the country. i think that until he does that, he is going to continue to be criticized as running a vision-less campaign. >> we have lawrence o'donnell, and ed schultz, and reverend al sharpton on deck to respond to both of the speeches and talk about what this means when we come back. msnbc's coverage of the michigan and arizona primaries continues. stay with us.

mitt romney has won the arizona and michigan primaries, and we have heard from both rick santorum and mitt romney

tonight. reverend al sharpton, you have run for president, and you are an orator and your entire life has been spent talking to crowds of people, and either of these men impress you tonight? >> santorum is by far the better speaker, and if romney had to knock it out of the park, well, ed is right, he knocked it right out of the back, a foul ball. he did not energize the crowd and no point to rally and like reading somebody else's speech to try to get to the end. well, both of them though, did not mention the other which is that we are in for a long haul and not only did romney not mention santorum, but santorum did not mention romney and they both went after obama, and rick santorum gave more of a vision. >> well, rick santorum has to wonder where he would have been if he had not attacked john f. kennedy. last gallup poll, 85% job

approval and ronald reagan 74% job approval and the next one down is bill clinton, and he could not have taken on a more impossible opponent than president kennedy, and he paid for it in michigan. >> in is a man who went around the state in a car talking about how much he loved michigan, and tonight i didn't feel the love at all. he had an opportunity to talk about growing up in michigan and what it means to come home to win his state, and he couldn't do it. he gave the opening speech to the real estate convention at fargo. that is what he did, but here is what i really like. i like the fact that he is going to cut taxes 20%, when he pays 15%. the death tax, you are right, chris. here is the bottom line, he won and he won by just enough, and that is going the give him an opportunity to go back to wall street and say, i'm still your guy. >> and two notable things from the romney speech and neither

poetic and one is that we may have not won by a lot, but we won and that is what counts and telling everybody to stop horse racing it, and credit him for the victory and you don't usually hear him say things like that. and the other speech, i don't know if he h he has said it by g out the web address which is to do it with small donors when you can't do it with billionaires only. and our primary coverage continues right after this. stay with us. >> i thought he would be writing a check.

>> good evening. for this special late-night edition of hardball. mitt romney faced a dangerous proposition. his campaign has touted for months. instead, he comes away with two wins. in michigan, with 87% of the vote in, he has 41% to reach santo santorum's 38%. can this double victory bring back the victory romney so desperately needs? >> he has the vision and the

passion to be president of the united states. great questions. and rick santorum, he might have the hard, but has he shown the voters he can win in major metro poll tan areas? let's get more from our exit poll. for that, we turn to tameron hall. tameron, great to have you on. >> thank you for having me. our nbc news exit poll shows two of the key ins the michigan primary were electability and experience. let's take a look. among romney voter, nearly half said that the quality that mattered most in deciding which candidate to support would that he can beat president obama. moving on, 31% said it mattered most. the candidate has the right experience. now, take a look at this. when it comes to electability, romney has slipped in polls. he does no better for the

november general election. romney still looks like the strongest nominee. take a look at number there. 54% pick romney as most likely to beat obama. that's twice as many as rick santorum will do better. let's take a look at this. he did very well among older, affluent and better educated voters. he captured almost half of those. but household incomes over $100,000, age 65 and older, they are 48%. and college grads, 45% of them went the way of mitt romney. but there's still some lukewarm feeling toward romney even among those who voted for him. about half strongly favored the candidate they picked tonight. but, take a look. 42%. reservations we talk a lot about that. 8% said they described their vote mainly as being against the other candidate. so that's a look at some of the reasons why mitt romney won tonight, chris.

a closer look at a lot of thing that is you and the panel were quite honestly talking about throughout the night. >> well said, tameron. thanks so much. republicans have been through this race before. last time around. what i love is when tameron touts matches up what we think. the people that want electability went with romney. the rural people with a lot less money. there's a passion deficit here that's so apparent. and i wonder, am i right? are we watching a totally different race right now that we're going to see in november? the race now is who turns you on. the race in november is going to be how do we beat obama if you're a republican. it doesn't matter who's running against him. how do we beat him? >> i think electability, absent passion, is a transaction. and i think that's what's occurring in the republican process. the voters are engaged in a transaction with mitt romney coming to accept him as the

nominee. not necessarily being passionate about him. when you move into a general election, i don't think enthusiasm is going to drive the outcome. >> they've got enthusiasm. it's getting rid of obama. >> i think that republican voters will unify around the nominee on the question of getting rid of the president. now, in a perfect world, you'd rather have passion for your guy than passion against the other guy. but as long as there's some passion there, you can work with it. >> i'm asking something fundamental here about this campaign. it seems like we're looking at two different realities. one is who the republicans like. they doubt really like anybody. but they do know they don't like obama. and when it comes time to the fall campaign, isn't it all going to be about when you think of obama and how much the republicans want to get rid of him? >> well, it could, but democrats tried this with john kerry. it was all fired up and all the passion was -- it was never -- but kerry had the same sort of issue. it was never fully pro-kerry. you have to go back, arguably,

to nixon for somebody to win the presidency without passion in their own base. and part of that, frankly, was the democrats that weren't un y unified in '68. they were certainly a bunch upset over bobby and the vietnam war. it just splintered that and nixon was able to get in there. but think about every other winning presidential candidate. the year they won, they had this passion inside their own base. the people that were crawling across broken glass not to just show up in vogue. i think romney's got to figure this out. this has been the chief complaint that i've heard who would like romney to win this nomination and go out there and win it. go earn it. go get something that fires up the core of the part of this party. you're not going to get the cultural warriors. but there is this sort of middle ground. it's sort of middle class republican voter who isn't thrilled with wall street, but isn't crazy about the cultural wars. that's what they would like to see him fire these people up.

>> let me is you a very basic human question. have you ever met anybody who has changed? >> sure. >> i haven't. have you met anybody who's really changed? you're talking about making mitt romney into the candidate of passion and vision and excitement. i just don't see how he make that is metamorphosis. >> i think you're talking about change on a molecular level. so the answer is no. >> okay. how do you get him to fake it? >> well, look. i think he is who he is. and part of the process of running for president is you totally are revealed as who you are. i mean, the thing that he has control over is what he talks about. there's nothing preventing him from offering a speech tonight, for example, where he lays out a vision for the future of the country. all of the examples of his conservativism, which he introduces into the race or about what he did as governor of massachusetts, not about what he's going to do over the course of the next decade. he has control and power over that. he could do that if he wanted to. >> he gave a speech tonight which was a business proposition, not a vision.

where was the emotion? by the way, somebody said a few minutes ago, why didn't mitt romney say what it meant to him emotionally to win in a state he was born in? >> look, short of that, can he figure out a way to make the tech no cattic part of this, and i say this and some people are going to think you're trying to talk about michael dukakis. but he almost needs to figure out how is that his strength. look, this is what i do. i go in there and i make things work better. the government doesn't work anymore. nobody trusts it. he needs to take what is really both a weakness and a strength, right? the sort of cold, calculating part of his brain and use it as a strength to be mr. fix it. and they've never -- he's never -- he never sold that. >> he's still focusing in his speech. let's watch a bit about getting rid of obama. as if it's all about the pitcher on the mound. it's not about the guy in the

bull pen i.'s not about me, the guy behind the curtain. >> four years ago, we warned that the presidency is no place for on-the-job-training. did he fix the economy? did he tackle the housing prices? did he get america back to work? these days, he's nwhen he's not spending our money or infringing on our rights, he's busy running for reelection. he believes -- did you hear this? he wloobelieves that he ranks a the top four presidents in american history. i find a different spot for him. he thinks he deserves a second term. he says we can't wait, to which i say oh, yes we can. [ applause ] >> there's a guy who's been in the corner with politicians. does he have the personal fiber

to stand four and five feet from the president of the united states and talk like that to obama in those three debates. >> well, if he's the nominee, we're going to find out. what i'm struck by, though, is the lack of joy that comes with the criticism. i always thought in 2004, when president bush would be up there giving it to john kerry, he always had a smile on his face. the crowd knew what he was doing. he knew what he was doing. he was enjoying it. he loved the theater of politics. and when you deliver a thrust at your opponent, right, it's not because you have venom for him, you disagree with him. it's part of the theater of it. and he just doesn't seem to have it. he seems really genuinely annoyed with it. >> by the way, i think that was supposed to be a punch line. don't you get the case that he wrote that in there as part of a joke? he says he wants to be top four. i've got another place for him. i think that was supposed to be a laugh line, but he didn't deliver it. i do think that's what he was trying to do. >> you're so smart. you're my hero.

i like a man who grins when he fights. >> but i go back to you go to this -- don't try to change him. figure out -- and this has been the frustration of people that i understand that feel like they know romney. it's like, you know, he's put himself into this box. i've got to do all of these things to do the check marks on the conservative vote. don't alienate anybody in the conservative movement. that's what goes into his head the entire time he goes. and somehow they believe if you disparage the president in some way, and i'll do it the nicest way i can, i'll get, okay, he wasn't so bad rather than figuring out a way to take the core strength. >> technical question. you, first, chuck, why didn't either of the candidates who were really competing tonight, santorum or romney talk about it at all in their big speech snuz. >> both of them realized they have negative problems. when you look at what's going on particularly in ohio, i think

they both realized that tonight, more people are seeing them and i think they know the more they've gone negative, both of their negatives have gone out. romney is more concerned about what's going on with independent voters. but i think we've seen it with all voters. they both have an unacceptable rise. >> so they're going to let their super backs do the dirty work, still? >> let's see. they have to to a point. but i do think a lot of momentum will be turning on santorum. >> one thing i heard was a desire to go a long way. these guys are talking about the mineral state which includes my home state of pennsylvania. they're talking about north dakota, they're talking about oklahoma. they're really trying to make the pitch, right? that they can produce more wealth. i really heard it tonight. especially from santorum. >> these energy issues unite the republican party. republican voters all disagree with the president's energy policies. so this is one of the areas with rising gas prices that i think you'll see these candidates talking a lot more about,

particularly as you move ahead to some of the energy states and some of the states that have great energy. >> well, look, you talked to the obama -- i watched the obama campaign. their first tv ad was a defensive ad on solyndra. they do know this is their soft spot. and, at this point, because of the improving overall economic picture, the improving picture, for instance, in michigan and manufacturing and things like that. republicans are going to go for the softest spot. and, frankly, the obama folks know. that's why they were so defensive this week a little bit trying to pre-butt these attacks. >> did nick santorum win his spot as the number two alternative tonight? or is there still a chance for newt to get back in this thing tonight? >> i do think it's been so volatile in the race that if you look ahead to the next week -- i think santorum has to win somewhere next week. if santorum doesn't win anywhere next week -- >> okay, let's go through the states. let's start with this. ohio, best bet? >> you just left off one? >> okay, washington state?

>> best bet? >> you know, there's a significant mormon population. what gives romney some chance. but this is a state that i believe pat robertson won back in '88. i think it's a place santorum could win. >> okay, let's talk about the big states next week. everybody's watching tonight. ohio, best chance for santorum, right? >> the state that he's got to try to beat. >> because why? >> because it is an important state in the general election. he's a cultural midwestern. >> he's from the big ten. >> quick irony in high row. he's not on the -- you have to vote twice in ohio for the delegate slate and overall statewide. santorum didn't qualify on the delegate slates. so he could win the state and romney's guaranteed. >> but he could get the headline because i think ever since penn state joined the big ten, all of the sudden, they call pennsylvania part of it. we're talking about ohio next week. that's the big one. we'll be talking about the big states. >> tennessee is my favorite southern state. >> that anybody can win.

>> that romney might be able to win. >> and also santorum. but gingrich is ahead. thank you, chuck. thank you steve. when i come back, what's next for rick santorum. can he bounce back and win in ohio? his bike win in the most important state as steve has been talking about all night. ohio is the one you've got to win in november. msnbc's coverage will continue in a minute.

about scone condoms and birth control and abortion rights. that why i use natural advantage, and that's why you deserve your own natural a e bottom line out spent 6-1 in mitt romney's home state. he just did this three years ago. he has the most out of any candidates and we're within three-points and might actually wind up with more delegates. i think mitt romney and his campaign have a serious problem. rick santorum clearly has passion for this country and the voters have passion for him. and that's a big difference between the two candidates. and you know, chris, better than anybody, so much of politics can be boiled down to do i know you? do i trust you? >> i've been saying all night, i think your candidate is the one with connection. but i did notice tonight that speech was very heavily

embroidered with economic opportunity, economic freedom and the end of government controls of regulation and taxation. it was very much an economic freedom speech. am i right? and is that going to be the theme of the rest of this campaign? or is it going to be back to those cultural issues which he has talked about. maybe we emphasized them, but he's talked about them. >> yeah, he has talked about them, but he has talked about the other issues, as well chatty don't forget, cutting spending, not voting for tax increases, entitlement reform for the welfare system, those are things he had accomplished in the united states senate. and he can point to those and say i've actually done these before. and that's a big difference, as we. of course he's talking about manufacturing. that's important. we have a huge problem in the manufacturing sector. it's going to resonate with everybody. this economy is struggling. rick knows that. the country knows that. and he's offering a plan, a vision, a positive vision to get those jobs back here. and i think the people see that. they like that.

and they trust rick to do it because he's got the record of doing it in u.s. senate. >> michael, i saw a real division of are these two guys dividing up the spoils here? one going for the rich suburbs, one going fer the rural areas. >> if i'm a betting man and taking bet ans that one, i'm going to go with the little guy. i think that this election and the obama people have already figured this out, chris. this election is going to be about the little guy and the little gal. the man and woman, everyday folks, who are struggling to make ends meet. and i think that has been the one thing that santorum has been able to really connect to.

i mean, i listened to your commentary earlier this evening and it was a very genuine reflection of his connection. and then you follow that up with what romney had to say. and while that may appeal to people who are accountants and cpas, the little man, the little woman, the everyday person out there is saying i just don't feel that. so that -- that, while it may look like that's how they're dividing up the spoils, probably won't play out that way in the end. it can't play out that way if you want to win. i think you're going to have to, if you're mitt romney, get that everyday mom and pop to be a part of the team. rick santorum show that is he can do that. and i don't think he'll have a problem connecting that up, if you will, to those who are the top earners in this country who create the jobs and do all the other thing that is make the economy grow. >> by the way, rachel menow asked me to book you guys for her show, rachel's show. so you just heard it from me.

let me ask you this. what's the difference between your guy and mitt romney? >> well, mitt romney's people have been saying this for a long time, that the reason he's going to be the nominee is because he's got the most money and the most infrastructure. that is one inspiring message. i cannot wait to go out and put a bumper sticker on my truck that says money and infrastructure, 2012. it shows rick santorum and his campaign, he's being out spent at every term. mean, nasty things are being said. but, yet, he offers that positive vision that people gravitate toward. and at the end of the day, the voter -- it's important for the voter to relate to the candidate. but even more so the candidate can relate to the voter. and i think rick and the voter have experienced many of the same struggles and that can't be coached. that can't be bought. it's something that's innate in rick santorum. and i think that's important in this election. >> well, in credit to your candidate, hogan, your candidate has the guts to go and meet the press and the other guy doesn't, which i do think significant in

my part. thank you for coming on. >> he comes on your show. >> i know. please bring him back any time you need a platform. we'd love to have him on, rick santorum. and michael, thank you, sir. i'm sorry, we're short of time. when we return, we'll look ahead to super tuesday. that's next week. msnbc's coverage will continue in just a moment.

mitt romney, winner tonight in both michigan and arizona. nbc's peter alexander joins us. pet peter, where is he headed? what does he have to do next week? >> you know, he has a lot ahead for him. he's going to try to hit as many of those states as he can. washington state, of course, voting this saturday. we're going to be traveling with him. stops early tomorrow in the state of ohio. he has acknowledged that that state, much like michigan, is going to be a big battleground. one of those battlegrounds in the general election.

it is a rust belt state where the economy is the primary issue. this campaign is touting that among those, the economy is a top issue. mitt romney is the heavy winner here. none the less, he has a lot of question that is he still has to answer. some of those he addressed in a conversation with reporters earlier today, acknowledging some mistakes saying that he is going to have to be a lot better to try to stay on message. you try to have that happen again tonight. but i think one thing that was noticeable, as he has said throughout the course of this campaign, michigan, the state where he was born and raised is personal. and he stuck around a little bit longer than usual, chris, shaking hands, lingering here. really savoring this win, recognizing its significance for him. but he still heads to ohio. he's got to go to north dakota. he's going to the state of washington. he's got a busy seven days ahead. and what we're talk about next tuesday is just as important as what we're talking about tonight. >> let's go right now for more on the upcoming contest, next week to howard feinman both

msnbc and nbc analysts. it seems to me, howard, that you've got mitt romney in virginia. you've got newt starting with probably georgia. tell us the states that are in play where the hot fights are going to be? >> well, the two key ones are ohio and tennessee. ohio is an absolute must-win, i think for both rick santorum and for mitt romney. ohio is famous as a bellwether state. famous as a battleground state. if rick santorum is going to win a big state, it has to be that because it neighbors his hometown of pittsburgh and the small town of butler where he's actually from in western, pennsylvania. he's going to be carrying his manufacturing message and he's going to have to carry it there. tennessee is a state where mitt romney has to show that he can win southern votes. that he can win in the bible belt. tennessee, and certainly

nashville is kind of the cosmopolitan capital of the bible belt, if you will. and if mitt romney is going to have a receptive message, it's going to have to be there. i think those are the two key states. >> let's go to jonathan on the same questions. it seems to me if mitt romney wins ohio, rick santorum has a hell of a long race to go. it looks like he can't win if he can't win ohio? >> that's probably right. you can't forget about newt gingrich. he's probably going to take delegate-rich georgia, he might take oklahoma. and if he takes tennessee, then we're going to at least have him as part of our coverage. this thing is going to keep going for at least another couple of months, no matter what happens on super tuesday. but one of the big things to look for is something we identified a little earlier, chris. and that's this rural suburban split. so if santorum, who basically is

not a rural candidate, if he can make that transition into being the rural candidate who picks up all the small towns where the republican turn out is pretty heavy and can get them going against the city slicker romney, then he could have some success in some counties that he's not spending very much money in. the other huge factor is money. if foster frees the billionaire from pittsburgh decides that he wants to help rick santorum play in ohio, then he's going to be more competitive there. >> let's talk about the messages from both candidates. listening to their speeches tonight, howard, they weren't talking about michigan, they weren't talking about arizona. they were talking about the states coming up. what i heard from rick santorum wasn't just a passionate speech, but a particular call for support from the initiative from minors, from north dakota, oklahoma, pennsylvania, ohio. he's clearly going for that

minor anger against washington. >> well, as jonathan said, it's small town and it's mining country. and that -- those are two things that rick santorum knows about that he grew up surrounded by and can talk about convincingly. it also happens as steve was explaining earlier, that energy, digging, drilling, extracting, whether it's shale, whether it's fraking, you name it, is something that all republicans can agree on. it's a defining and unifyi idea among republican voters. and it's something that rick santorum can talk convincingly about, he can leave his own family background and so forth. he knows it from pennsylvania and he'll be carrying it all across the country. it's a way to go after president obama. >> jonathan, the other hand, i heard mitt romney going for money tonight. he went for people with money with their interests. here's a guy who talked to people who have big incomes and big wealth. the death tax may have a

symbolic influence on some people, but it has a real tangible effect on wealthy people. if you own a quarter billion dollars like mitt romney, it bothers you. >> it bothers a lot of republicans. he has to figure out how to connect. he just is missing that connective tissue to the average voter. so he's getting by now on organization and money. and inevitability and strength against obama. he's not getting by on the essence of politics, which is making a connection to voters. rick santorum's problem is one of discipline. you know, if he had stayed with the grandson of a coal miner message that he started out with after iowa, he might be on his way to the nomination now. but he keeps slipping back into who he authentically is, which is a social conservative obsessed with the social issues which are peripheral this year to the economic concerns of most voters. if he can figure out how to stay more on message, he could do

pretty well. i don't think he'll catch him, but he could dog him all the way to the convention. >> howard, he has the uncomfortable habit, he answers our questions. you ask him a question about birth control, he's going to answer it for 20 minutes. >> well, not only that, chris, i know rick santorum, i've covered him for a long time. he's stubborn. he is a stubborn guy. and if you challenge him, rather than trim, most of the time rather than trim. he's going to come straight at you. he'll charge straight at you and double down on whatever his passionate belief is, to mix my metaphors there. >> it's so dumb politically. in the last ten days, he went after sex, j.f.k. and college. three of the most popular things in america. just not smart things. >> they have a lot in common, all three of them, i noticed. >> and mitt romney has kid rock endorsing him. >> so here's the question now. we're watching ahead. we look ahead at the fight. we only have a week now. howard, it seems to me, and i said this as a promotional thing.

next week is either the beginning of mitt romney wrapping this thing up or it's the beginning of him being unwrapped. does it still look pretty good for him? >> he's always in the process of being wrapped and unwrapped. now it's on a ten-state scale. it's the first national election in this national election year. ten states on one night. not as big as some of the other super tuesdays. mitt romney has to win ohio and a southern state. by the way, georgia, everybody was assuming and i was assuming, too, that it's definitely in newt's corner. the polls are fairly tight there. i know that for example, rick santorum is going there on thursday to go to the big carpet factory in dalton, georgia. they lost jobs there. all the candidates are going to compete in georgia. georgia is a big state with more delegates at stake than any other state. >> okay. ten statues next week. five will be the big winner just like the oscars.

you win five next week, you're going to be the winner. >> and it won't be a silent movie, chris. >> no, well, fortunately for us. thank you, gentlemen. good night. mitt romney is the winner tonight and now the battle is on for super tuesday next week. ten big fights next week. i say whoever wins five is the winner. it is a three-way fight. msnbc's coverage continues in just a moment.

do you know why i knew this rescue would succeed? do you want to know? it wasn't because of anything the government did. it wasn't just because of anything management did. it was because i believed in you. i placed my bet on the american worker. and i'll make that bet any day of the week. and, now, three years later, three years later, that bet is paying off. not just paying off for you, it's paying off for america. three years later, the american auto industry is back. >> going back to the special late-night edition, that, of course, was the fired up president of the united states. president obama being cheered on today during a barn burner of a speech before the united

autoworker ins washington. while romney and santorum point out for michigan, the president was reminding everyone, including the workers out there that he rescued the car industry. can this fiery, populous message fuel obama's chances in the 2012 race? well, that answers itself msnbc political analyst. howard, being a student of musical theater, as you are, you must remember that that was the great line from how to succeed in business. i believe in you. i can't believe that that wasn't from that play. this i believe in you, he was smart enough to give the workers out there the credit for the comeback of that industry and not brag on it having done it himself. >> well, on one level, chris, that was the beginning of the fall campaign where you had the president really, although he was speaking to the united auto workers in washington, really aiming at michigan, aiming to get in the mix there that advertising on in michigan, the obama campaign did. they wanted to get in the conversation. in the mix and take the other

side of the argument about the auto bail out. the auto industry bail outs. they're popular among democrats and michigan. not among republicans. but it was a lower republican turn out in this primary in michigan. so i think the president is in pretty good shape there. that's part of what he was -- what he was doing tonight. >> you know, just a few weeks ago, i thought that whole part of the country was in play. now, steve, i don't think you think it is anymore. michigan is a democratic state. >> yeah, it's hard for me to look ahead and see how michigan is going to come back into play. i think this is a state that's pretty safely in the democratic side! what about the other auto producing states like ohio? indiana is a republican state, indiana, wisconsin, those kind of states. >> i think ohio remains a close state. it is a state that the republicans have to win. and just like we've seen in the last couple of elections, you're going to see a huge amount of focus and energy by both campaigns.

>> howard, do you think this is going to be a labor-wide thing that you see the uaw is celebrating the american industry? it's a high-paid industry. since the brothers back in the '50s, it has been the pioneer and good labor organization. opportunities like good health care, good packages. is that going to get the union movement back? >> i don't know. i began life as a labor reporter, chris. and for the old courier journal and for news week. and actually, the sad fact that is that the industrial unions, while we think of them as em bblmatic in general, are really only a small part of the labor movement these days. the big unions are the teacher's unions and the public employee unions. those are the ones that are the heart and soul of the modern democratic party as people like mitt romney and others are going to remind everyone. let me just say one other thing. what the romney campaign was focused on tonight, gallop poll

numbers. they show the president with a 43-50 favorable, unfavorable job rating. and they also show mitt romney in a test match-up with the president beating him by four points, 50-46. so the president could enjoy the speech that he gave to the uaw today and enjoy sort of the havoc that was created in michigan and the division and weakness of the republican party. but they should not be deluded at the white house that this is going to be anything other than th a close race. unemployment is still over 8%. the housing market is still dead. and while the auto industry was saved, and thank god for that, there's still a lot of work to be done. >> do you see the disconnect between the reality out there and the country? as we're talking about in howard's numbers and the white house perception? i think there is a disconnect. i sense euphoria coming from chicago and washington here that's misplaced. >> well, i think the foundational, you know, element

of this race remains the same. i think both sides start with about 48% of the vote. it's going to be a very, very close election and a closely divided country. you know, his real clear politics average, which is the number that everyone looks at inside the campaigns which is an average of all of the polls together, have the president about a 48% approval, you know, 48, you know, 48.9% disapproval. and, so, i think it easpretty cr over the past couple months, his numbers have improved. i would take that at gallop poll. i wouldn't bet the farm on it. >> who is the favorite right now knowing all we know about europe, about oil prices, gas prices between now, the probability of the unemployment number hiking up a bit closer to nine again. given all of that, do you think the president is the favorite? >> if you had to lay money down on the table, i think the president is a slight favorite. >> slight favorite. >> as any incoming president would be. we spend all of our time talking about these races and the

context of events that have already occurred as opposed to eh events that are yet to occur. there are a lot to occur this year whether it be with iran or occupy wall street with the euro zone crisis. who knows what's going to happen? >> iran could be at war with another country. howard is going to stay with us tonight at msnbc's coverage with the arizona primaries is going to continue for a while now. stay with us.

welcome back. what did romney's win tonight tell us about the state of the race right now and the strength of the two campaigns -- actually the three campaigns. msnbc's analyst is back. he joins us, washington post columnist. and in detroit itself, john harwitt. there he is. john, i'll get to you. howard has something hot about what i always care about more than anything else, that magical word. in-fighting. we like that word. howard, tell us the scuttle. >> well, i think, chris, that it's been no secret that a lot of people who are friends of mitt romney's are presently in

the campaign or outside the campaign or in the republican ranks have been on a little -- have been a little bit unhappy with how the campaign has been run. and this last week, with the ford field fiasco and the botched trip to nascar land and various other missteps by what is supposed to be a very professional campaign, i think just kind of amplified it. that -- plus the sort of notion that he hasn't improved as a candidate. that he's grinding out under way here. it's going to be very costly in the long run because it's raised his negatives to a very high degree. that's caused a lot of carping. and it's focused on the current staff and you've heard from former romney people like consultant mike murphy who was also an analyst on tv and alex castelanno has also had ties to romney's past campaigns. he's been very public in their criticism.

>> i would guess that there's going to be some changes, not a huge cataclysm. mitt romney won both of these events. but winning ugly in this way is not necessarily what the friends and supporters of mitt romney wanted. they don't real like the way the campaign has been run. >> you know, gene, you're a great writer and you have a wonderful way of putting words together. my question is why can't romney find a speech writer? peg drec peggy, where are you? where's michael? where's landon? are they all employed in journalism now and can't do these jobs i think that may be it. >> yeah, but he's working for your post. >> but you're right. there is no method to mitt romney's words. and maybe this is what we've got. i do think it's possible to find a speech writer who hears

romney's voice better than romney does. who hears the resonances and the cadences of romney's voice and hears in those elements something that you can use, some clay that you can mold into something nobling. i think it can be done. but it's not being done now. on the other hand, look, he won two primaries tonight. you know? he's got to be happy. imagine the alternative? imagine what we would be saying if he had narrowly lost in michigan or if he hadn't dominated in arizona the way he did. and, you know, in fact, it is winning ugly, but that's so much better from his point of view than losing elegantly. but, you know, he'll take it and see what he can do on super tuesday. >> you know, john, richard nixon, who has obviously never gotten a great run from historians could give a very, very good speech. and he would sit down and write them like the great speeches of the '68 convention, the great speech of the '60 convention. they were barn burners.

people would say, wow, what a speech. why can't romney deliver when he knows it's a big night some kind of vision? some kind of passion? >> well, i think it goes back to mitt romney's personality. and i talked along the lines that howard was making a moment ago with the veteran house republican tonight. very politically savvy. wants mitt romney to be the nominee because he thinks he would be the strongest general election candidate. here's the problem, the dogs just don't like this dog food. and mitt romney seems to represent -- mitt romney seems to represent the establishment. the base doesn't like the establishment. and, therefore, he is fighting like crazy to win the very republican voters that any republican nominee will get in november. and he said that he doesn't recall a potential republican nominee with this much difficulty at this stage since general ford, somebody who had to fight that hard for people who were going to be on the republican side. >> well, if you don't like the

dog food, i'll starve you until you do. so i'm going to get rid of all of the other dog food and all that's going to be is me. that seems to be the strategy. this next week, we know they're going to try to beat santorum in ohio. knock him out. >> and that is the fundamental, strategic doctrine of the romney campaign. it goes back to the very beginning. and the guys i mentioned before, mike murphy and alex castelanno, they're from early it rations of romney as a politician. and they're carping from the sidelines and they say hey, we remember a guy who was an engaging guy, who was a little dry but engaging and wholesome and people kind of liked him. they're sort of saying we don't like what the campaign has done to a guy that we knew. if the whole purpose of the campaign is to destroy everybody and everything around him, then that takes away what we thought -- i'm quoting these guys now. we thought was what ultimately was not bad about mitt romney,

which is sort of -- we thought he was fundamentally a pretty decent guy. and in the world of politics, to be a decent guy is kind of an inspirational thing. anyway, that's what they're saying. and i agree with jane, what the current campaign structure has to do is keep winning. if they keep winning, they'll keep the hounds at bay here. but they're ready to pounce at any minute. >> john, can you tell us -- go ahead. we have ten races next week. is it like the academy awards? it's going to be numbers. who wins the most elections next week? the guy that wins five, is he the winner? who's six, even. >> rick santorum is going to make a stand there and try to -- he's been leading in the polls. and his campaign told me tonight they don't think they've been terribly hurt here. by the way, his campaign, i got off the phone with the senior strategist. he said look out, we may win more congressional districts.

that has the potential to be like that iowa result that looks a little bit different in the light of day, if, in fact, they do win a majority of those delegates. you've got a very bifurcated situation. ron paul is looking at states like alaska, like the state of washington, like idaho. i think they can win delegates in vermont. newt gingrich is on the air right now in seven states, his super pack is. the whole campaign thinks they can beat him in georgia. >> thanks a lot. i'll be right back in a moment. coming up in the next hour, the speeches from tonight. msnbc's coverage in the michigan and arizona primaries continues in just a moment.

to want, mitt romney faced a dangerous proposition. his campaign has touted for months. instead, he comes away with two wins. in michigan, with 87% of the vote in, he has 41% to rick santorum's 38%. in arizona, with 78% of the vote in, romney has 48% to santorum's 26%. can this double victory bring back the momentum romney so

desperately needs to regain his footing? can he convince the voters in ohio next week that he has the vision and the passion to be president of the united states? great questions. and rick santorum, he might have the heart, but has he shown the voters he can win major metropolitan areas instead of just winning in rural areas? let's get more from our exit polling tonight. for that, we turn to tameron hall, the host of nbc's news nation. >> thank you for having me. our nbc news exit poll shows the keys to mitt romney's primary were electability and experience. let's take a look. among romney voters, nearly half said that the quality that mattered most in deciding which candidate to support was that he can beat president obama. 31% said it mattered most. the candidate has the right experience. now, take a look at this. when it comes to electability, romney actually slipped in recent national polls against

barack obama. and romney does no better for the november general election. but in view of michigan republicans, romney still looks like the strongest nominee. take a look at the number there. 54% pick romney as most likely to beat obama. that's twice as many as rick santorum will do better. now for a quick look at which voters supported him. let's take a look at this. he did very well among older, after floppfluent educated vote. household incomes over $100,000, they're 48%. and college grads. >> there's still some feeling even among those who voted for him. about half strongly favored the candida

candidate. joining us right now, steve smith has been through this race before. what i love is when tameron presents all of that doubt. it really is what you think. they compete with the big money voted for romney. the people that voted for romney and higher education voted for romney. the rural people with a lot less money. but there's a passion deficit here. it's so apparent. and i wonder. am i right? are we watching a totally different race right now that we're going to see in november? the race now is who turns you on. the race in november is going to be how do we beat obama, if you're a republican. it doesn't matter who's running against him. how do we beat him? >> i think electability, absent passion, is a transaction. and i think that's what's occurring in the republican process right now.

the voters are engaged in a transaction with mitt romney coming to accept him as the nominee, not necessarily being passionate about him. when you move into a general election, i don't think enthusiasm is going to drive the outcome. >> they've got enthusiasm. it's getting rid of obama. >> i think that republican voters will unify around the nominee on the question of getting rid of the president, denying him a second term. now, in a perfect world, you'd rather have passion for your guy than passion against the other guy. but as long as there's some passion there, you can work with it. >> it seems like we're getting -- we're looking at two different realities. one is who the republicans like. they're just trying to figure it out. they do know they don't like ab. when it comes time to the fall campaign, isn't it all going to be about how much the republicans want to get rid of him? >> well, it could. but democrats tried this with john kerry. it was all fired up and all of this passion was anti -- kerry had the same sort of issue.

it was never fully pro-kerry. you have to go back, arguably, to nixon's 68 for somebody to win the presidency without passion in their own base. part of that, frankly, was the democrats that weren't unified in '68. they were a bunch upset over bobby and the vietnam war. it just splintered that and nixon was able to sort of get in there. but think about every other winning presidential candidate. the year they won, they had this passion inside their own base. the people that would crawl across, broken glass, not just to show up and vote. but to go knock on the door. i do think that romney's got to figure this out. and this has been the chief complaint i've heard from republicans who would like romney to win this nomination.

>> about what he did as governor of massachusetts. not about what he's going to do

over the course of the next decade. >> he gave a speech tonight which was a business proposition, not a vision. where is the emotion? where is the picture. by the way, somebody said about a few minutes ago, why did mitt romney say what it meant to him emotionally to win in a state he was born in. >> no, you do wonder this. short of that, can he figure out a way to make the techno cattic part. and i say this, people are going so day you're talking about mike dukakis. he almost needs to if i can your out how is that a strength. this is what i do. i go in there and i make things work better. the government doesn't work anymore. nobody trusts it. i'm going to make it work. he needs to figure out and take what is really both a weakness and a strength. this sort of cold, calculating part of his brain and use it as a strength to be mr. fix it. and he's never -- he's never sold that. >> he's still focusing on his speech. let's watch a bit about getting rid of obama.

it's all about the pitcher on the mound. we've got to replace them with the guy in the bull pen. it's not about me, the guy behind the curtain. it's about that guy on the mound who can't get them out anymore. here he is focusing on president obama and his speech. >> four years ago, we warned that the presidency was no place for on-the-job-training. well, today, we have the economy to prove it. did he fix the economy? did he tackle the housing crisis? did he get america back to work? these days, when he's not spending our money or infringing on our rights, he's -- he's busy running for reelection. he believes that -- did you hear this? he believes that he ranks among the top four presidents in american history. i find a different spot for him. he thinks he deserves a second term. he says we can't wait, to which i say oh, yes we can.

>> it's a guy who's been in the corner with politicians. does he have the personal firer to stand four and five feet and talk like that to obama in those three debate snuz. >> if he's the nominee, we're going to find out. what i'm struck by, though, is the lack of joy that comes with it. you know, i always thought in 2004, when president bush would be up there giving it to john kerry, he always had a smile on his face. the crowd knew what he was doing, he knew what he was doing, he was enjoying it. he loved theater of politics. and when you deliver a thrust at your opponent, right, it's not because you have venom for him, you december agree with him. it's part of the theater of it. he just doesn't seem to have it. he seems really genuinely annoyed. >> by the way, i think that was supposed to be a punch line. don't you get the case that stuart stevens wrote that in there as part of a joke. i've got.

>> i like a man who grins when he fights. >> i actually think, don't try to change him. figure out -- this has been the frustration of people that i understand that feel like they know romney. he's put himself into this box. i've got to do all of these things to do the check marks on the conservative vote. don't alienate anybody in the conservative vote. >> excuse me, rather than figuring out to take his core strength, be the mr. fix it and run on a positive. >> technical question, why didn't either of the candidates who were competing tonight, santorum or romney, talk about each other at all in their big speeches? >> i think that santorum, both

of them realize they have negative problems. i mean, when you look at what's going on particularly in ohio, i think they both realized that tonight, more people are seeing them and i think they know the more they've gone negative, both of their negatives have gone up. romney is more concerned about what's going on with aindependet voters. i think we've seen it with all voters. they both have an unacceptable rise. >> so they're going to let their super backs do the dirty work. still? >> let's see. they have to to a point. but i think now -- i do think a lot of the momentum will be with santorum. >> one thing i heard tonight was a desire. these guys were talking about the mineral state. they're talking about north dakota, they're talking about oklahoma. they're really trying to make the pitch, right? that they can produce more wealth for those rural areas. i really heard it tonight. >> these energy issues unite the republican party. republican voters all disagree with the president's energy policies. so this is one of the areas with

rising gas prices that i think you'll see these candidates talking a lot more about, particularly as you move ahead to some of the energy states and also some of the states that had great energy. >> well, you talked to the obama -- i watched the obama campaign. their first tv ad was a defensive ad on solyndra. they do know this is their soft spot, energy. and, at this point, because of the improving overall economic picture, the improving picture for michigan and manufacturing and things like that, they're going to go for the softest spot, that's energy. and, frankly, the obama folks know, that's why they were so defensive this week, a little bit, trying to pre-butt a little bit. >> did rick santorum win his spot as the number two alternative? is there still a chance for newt to get back in this thing tonight? >> i do think it's be so volatile in the race. if you look ahead to the next week, i think santorum has to win somewhere in the next week. if santorum doesn't win anywhere next week -- >> let's -- you guys are the best. let's start with this.

ohio, best bet -- >> you just left off one. washington state. >> best bet? >> you know, there's a significant mormon population is what gives romney some chance. this is a state that i believe pat robertson won back in '88. i think it's a place santorum could win, although no delegates, technically. >> let's talk about the big states next week. ohio, best chance for santorum? >> the state that he's got to try to win. >> because why? >> because it is an important state in the general election. it's the cultural midwestern heart and soul of the country. >> quick irony, though, in ohio. he's not on the you have to vote twice in ohio, for the delegate and overall statewide. santorum didn't qualify for the ballot on the delegate's state. he could win the state and romney is guaranteed. >> but he didn't get the headline right. i think ever since penn state joined the big ten, all of the sudden, they called pennsylvania. we're talking ohio next week. that's the big one. we've been talking to you guys

about the big states. all ten of them. >> tennessee is my favorite southern state that romney might be able to win. >> and also, santorum. >> yeah. >> okay. but gingrich is ahead. anyway, thank you, chuck, thank you steve. when i come back, what's next for rick santorum, can he bounce back and win in ohio. that's what he's talking about. his big win in the important state. you've got to win in november. msnbc's coverage of the michigan and arizona primaries will continue in a minute.

the national communications director for the santorum campaign. and also with us right now is former rnc chair, michael steel and msnbc political analyst. let's go to hogan. you're a principle person to talk to because you can tell us where this campaign is going. santorum talked tonight about economics. didn't talk about jack kennedy and church and state and condoms

and all of that stuff about birth control and abortion rights. he talked jobs and economics and minerals. minerals development. is this a pivot point in the campaign tonight? sfwl and we're within three-points? and might actually end up with more delegates than him? i think mitt romney and his campaign have a serious problem. rick santorum clearly has passion for his country and the voters have passion for him. that's a big difference between the two candidates. you know, chris, better than anybody, so much of politics can be boiled down to do i know you, do i trust you and do i like you. >> i've been saying all night i i think your candidate is the one with connection. i did notice tonight that that

speech was very heavily embroidered with economic opportunity, economic freedom and controls of regulation. it was very much an economic freedom speech. is that going to be the theme of the rest of this campaign? or is it going to be back to those cultural issues. >> yeah, he has talked about them. he's talked about the other issues, as well. don't forget, entitlement reform for the welfare system. those are things he accomplished in the united states senate. and he can point to those and say i've actually done these before. and that's a big difference as well. of course he's talking about manufacturing. and he knows that's important. we have a huge problem in the manufacturing sector. he wants to bring those jobs back to this country. it's going to resonate with everybody because everybody is struggling right now. this economy is struggling. rick knows that. the country knows that. he's offering a positive vision to get those jobs back here. and i think the people see that,

they like that and they trust rick to do it. he's got the record of doing it in the u.s. senate. >> michael, i saw a real division of property. i saw rick santorum going for rural areas, the mining areas, the extracting areas of north dakota, oklahoma, pa. i saw all of that while i watched mitt romney go for the wealthier suburbs. people who don't like it. who want to get rid of the death taxes, who want to reduce the minimum tax. clearly aimed at the people in the higher economic strata. are these two guys dividing up the spoils here? one going for the rich suburbs, one going for the rural areas? >> it sounded like that. i don't know if that's exactly what they're trying to do. but if i'm a betting man, i'm going to go with the little guy. i think that this election, and the obama people have already figured this out, chris, this election is going to be about the little guy and the little gal. the man and woman, everyday folks who are struggling to make ends meet. and i think that has been the one thing that santorum has been able to really connect to.

i mean, i listen to your commentary earlier this evening about what he was saying. and it was a very genuine reflection of his connection. and then you follow that up with what romney had to say. while that may appeal to people who are accountants and ceas. the little man, the little woman, the everyday person out there saying -- i just don't feel that. so that, while it may look like that's how they're dividing up the spoils, probably won't play out that way in the end. it can't play out that way if you want to win. i think you're going to have to, if you're mitt romney, get that everyday mom and pop to be a part of your team. rick santorum shows that he can do that and then i don't think he'll have a problem connecting that up, if you will. to those who are the top earners in this country who create the jobs and do all the other things that make the economy grow. >> what's the difference, hogan between your candidate -- by the way, meadow asked me to book you guys for her show, rachel's show. so you just heard it from me.

let me ask you this, what's the difference between your guy and mitt romney? >> well, i mean, mitt romney's people have been saying this for a long time. that the reason he's going to be the nominee is because he's got the most money and the most infrastructure. that is one inspiring message. i cannot wait to go out and put a bumper sticker on my truck that says money and infrastructure, 2012. you've got to inspire people. and it shows rick santorum this campaign, he's being out spent at every turn. mean, nasty things are being said about him, but he offers that positive vision that people gravitate toward. and at the end of the day, the voter -- it's important for the voter to relate to the candidate, but even more so, the candidate can relate to the voter. and i think rick and the voter have experienced many of the same struggles and that can't be coached. it can't be bought. it's something that's innate in rick santorum and is important in this election. >> in credit to your candidate, hogan, is that your candidate has the guts to meet the press and the other guy doesn't.

thank you for coming on. >> he comes on your show. >> please bring him back any time you need a platform. we'd love to have him on. and michael steel, i'm sorry, we're short of time tonight. but you've been busy. we're going to look ahead to super tuesday. that's next week. msnbc's coverage will continue in just a moment.

mitt romney, winner tonight in both michigan and arizona. nbc's peter alexander joins us from romney headquarters. peter, where is he headed? what does he have to do next week? >> he has a lot ahead for him. he's going to try to hit as many of those states as he can. washington state, of course, voting this saturday. and we're going to be traveling with him. stops early tomorrow in the state of ohio. he has acknowledged that that state, much like michigan, is going to be a big battleground. one of those battlegrounds in the general election. it is a rust belt state where

the economy is the primary issue. tonight, his campaign is touting that among those here who said the economy was their top issue, mitt romney was the heavy issue. there's a lot of yeses that he still has to answer. some of those he addressed in a conversation with reporters earlier today, acknowledging some mistakes he's made on the trail, saying he has to be a lot better going forward. you try to have that happen again tonight. but one thing that was noticeable is as he has said throughout the course of this campaign, michigan, the state where he was born and raised is personal. and he stuck around a little bit longer than usual, chris, shaking hands, lingering here, really savoring this win. but he still heads to ohio. he's got to go to north dakota, the state of washington. he's got a busy seven days ahead. what we're talking about next tuesday is going to be just as important. >> peter alexander, let's go right now for more on the upcoming contest to next week to

howard and to jonathan. both msnbc analysts. howard, let's start with this. it seems to me, howard, that you've got mitt romney in massachusetts, vermont and virginia. you've got newt starting with georgia. tell us the states that are in play where the hot fights are going to be. >> the two key ones are ohio and tennessee. ohio is an absolute must-win i think for both rick santorum and for newt -- for mitt romney. ohio is famous as a bellwether state, famous as a battleground state. if rick santorum is going to win a big state, it has to be that because it neighbors his hometown of pittsburgh and the small town of butler where he's actually from western pennsylvania. he's going to be carrying his manufacturing message and he's going to have to carry it there. tennessee is a state where mitt romney has to show that he can win southern votes that. he can win in the bible belt. tennessee is certainly -- and

certainly nashville is kind of the cosmopolitan capital of the bible belt, if you will. and if mitt romney is going to have a receptive message in the south, it's going to have to be there. i think those are the two key states on super tuesday. >> jonathan, the same questions. it seems to me if mitt romney wins ohio, rick santorum has got a hell of a long race to go. it looks like he can't win if he can't win ohio. >> that's probably right. you can't forget about newt gingrich. he's probably going to take delegate-rich georgia, he might take oklahoma. and if he takes tennessee, then we're going to at least have him as part of our coverage. this thing is going to keep going. one of the big things to look for, something we identified a little earlier, chris, and that's this rural, suburban split. remember, red america is rural. and so if santorum, who

basically is not a rural candidate, he's a suburban candidate, too, but if he can make that transition into being the rural candidate who picks up all the small towns where the republican turn out is pretty heavy and can get them going against the city slicker romney, then he could -- he could have some success in some counties that he's not spending very much money in. the other huge factor is money. if foster freeze, the billionaire from pittsburgh decides that he wants to help rick santorum play in ohio, then he's going to be more competitive there. >> let's talk about what the messages were from both candidates tonight. listening to their speeches tonight, howard, they weren't talking about michigan, they weren't talking about as as. they were talking about the states coming up. what i heard from rick santorum wasn't just a passionate speech, but a particular call for support from the miner, from north dakota, oklahoma,pennsylvania, ohio. he's clearly going for that

miner anger against washington. >> well, as jonathan -- jonathan said, small town and it's mining country. and that -- those are two things that rick santorum knows about that he grew up surrounded by and can talk about convincingly. it also happens as steve was explaining earlier, that energy, digging, drilling, extracting, whether it's shale, whether it's fraking in the shale, you name it. it's something that all republicans can agree on. it's a defining and unifying idea among republican voters. and it's something that rick santorum can talk convincingly about. he can weave his own family background in. he knows it from pennsylvania. and he'll be carrying it all across the country. it's a way to go after president obama and also try to get republican votes. >> jonathan, i heard mitt romney going for money tonight. here's a guy who talked to people tonight who have big incomes and big wealth. the death tax may have a symbolic influence on some

people. but it has a real tangible effect on wealthy people. if you own a quarter billion, like mitt romney, the death tax does bother yo right? >> it bothers a lot of republicans. but he has to figure out how to connect. he just is missing that connective tissue to the average voter. so he's getting by now on organization and money and inevitability and strength against obama. he's not getting by on the essence of politics, which is making a connection to voters. rick santorum's problem if one of discipline. if he had stayed with the grandson of a coal miner message that he started out with after iowa, he might be on his way to the nomination. but he keeps slipping back into who he authentically is, which is a social conservative obse obsessed with the social issues, which are peripheral this year, to the economic concerns of most voters. if he can figure out how to stay more on message, he could do

pretty well. i don't think he'll catch him, but he could dog him all the way to the convention. >> we love it as journalists. he answers our questions. you ask him a question about birth control, he's going to answer it for 20 minutes. >> not only that, i know rick santorum. i've covered him for a long time. he's stubborn. he is a stubborn guy. if you challenge him, rather than trim, most of the time, he's going to come straight at you. he'll charge straight at you and double down on whatever his passionate belief is, to mix my metaphors there. >> it's so dumb politically. i mean, in the last ten days, he went after sex, j.f.k. and college, three of the most popular things in america. just not smart, politically. >> they have a lot in common, all three of them, i noticed. >> and mitt romney has kid rock endorsing him. >> so here's the question now. we're watching right ahead. we only have a week now. howard, it seems to me -- i said this for a promotional thing.

next week is either the beginning of mitt romney wrapping this thing up or it's the beginning of him being unwrapped. does it still look pretty good for him? >> he's always in the process of being wrapped and unwrapped. but now it's on a ten-state scale. it's the first national election in this national election year. ten states on one night. not as big as some of the other super tuesdays have been, but still pretty darn big. yes, mitt romney has got to win ohio and he's got to win a big, southern state. by the way, georgia -- everybody was assuming and i was assuming, too, it's definitely in newt's corner. the polls are fairly tight there. i know for example rick santorum was going there on thursday to go to the big carpet factory in dalton, georgia and talk about manufacturing. they lost jobs there. all the candidates are going to compete in georgia. georgia is a big state with more delegates at stake. >> ten states next week, i predict the kennedy who wins five will be the big winner, just like the oscars.

you win five next week, you're going to be the winner. >> and it won't be a silent movie, chris. >> no, well, fortunately for us. thank you howard. mitt romney is the winner tonight. now the battle is on for super tuesday next week. ten big fights next week. i say whoever wins five is the winner. it is a three-way fight. msnbc's coverage tonight continues in just a moment.

do you know why i knew this rescue would succeed? you want to know? it wasn't because of anything the government did. it wasn't because of anything management did. it was because i believed in you. i placed my bet on the american worker. and i'll make that bet any day of the week. and, now, three years later, three years later, that bet is paying off. not just paying off for you, it's paying off for america. three years later, the american auto industry is back. >> welcome back to this special late-night edition of "hardball." that was the fired up president of the united states, president obama being cheered on today during a barn burner of a speech before the united auto worker

ins washington. that was earlier today. while romney and santorum pointed out for michigan, the president was reminding everyone, including the workers out there, that he rescued the car industry. can this fiery, populous message fuel obama's chances in the 2012 race? well, that answers itself. i think msnbc political analysts are still with us. howard, being a student of musical theater, as you are, you must remember that that was the great line from how to succeed in business. i believe in you. i can't believe that that wasn't from that play. this i believe in you, he was smart enough to give the workers out there the credit for the comeback of that industry and not brag on it having done it himself. >> well, one level, chris, that was the beginning of the fall campaign where you had the president really, although he was speaking to the united auto workers in washington, really aiming at michigan, aiming to play to get in the mix there. they had advertising on in michigan. so they wanted to get in the

conversation, in the mix and take the other side of the argument about the bail out, the auto industry bail outs. and they're popular among democrats in michigan and among independents in michigan. not among republicans. but it was a lower republican turn out in this primary in michigan. so i think the president is in pretty good shape there. so that's part of what he was -- what he was doing tonight. >> you know, just a few weeks ago, i thought that whole part of the country was in play. now, steve, i don't think you think it is anymore. michigan is now a democratic state. >> i think that it's hard for me to look ahead and see how michigan is going to come back into play. i think this is a state that's pretty safely in the democratic side. sfwl what about the other auto producing states like ohio? indiana, ohio, wisconsin, those kinds of states. >> i think ohio remains a swing state. i think it's as close as a tech can be. it is a state the republicans have to win and just like we've seen, you're going to see a huge

amount of focus. >> howard, do you think this is going to be a labor-wide thing, you think the uaw is celebrating a comeback? workers do well out there. since the brothers back in the '50s, it has been the pioneer and good labor organization opportunities like good health care and good packages? is that going to get the union moving back on the track? >> i don't know, i began life as a labor reporter, chris, for the old courier journal and for news week. and, actually, the sad fact is that the industrial unions, while we think of them as emblem attic of the labor movement in general, are really only a small part of the labor movement. the big unions that matter are the teacher's unions and the public employee unions. those are the heart and soul. let me just say one other thing. what the romney campaign was foe cussed on tonight were the gallop poll numbers.

the new gallop poll numbers show the president with a 43-50 favorable-unfavorable rating, job rating nationally. and they also show mitt romney in a test match-up with the president, beating him by four points. so the president could enjoy the speech that he gave to the uaw today and enjoy sort of the havoc that was created in michigan and the division and weakness of the republican party. but they should thought be deluded at the white house that this is going to be anything other than a close race because unemployment is still over 8%. the housing mark is still dead. and while the auto industry was saved, and thank god for that, there's still a lot of work to be done. >> steve, do you see the disconnect between the reality out there and the country? as we're talking about it in howard's numbers and after the gallop poll and the white house perception? i think there is a disconnect. i sense euphoria coming from chicago and washington here that's misplaced. >> i think the foundational, you

know, element of this race remains the same. i think both sides start with about 48% of the vote. it's going to be a very, very close election and a closely divided country. you know, his real clear politics average, which is the number that everyone looks at inside the campaigns, which is an average of all of the polls together, have the president about a 48% approval, you know, 48, you know, 48.9% disapproval. so i think it's pretty clear over the last couple months, his numbers have improved. they come up. i would take that gallop poll. i wouldn't bet the farm on it. >> who's the favorite right now? knowing all we know about europe, about oil prices, gas prices between now, the probability of the unemployment number hiking up a bit up closer to 9 again. given all of that, do you think the president is the favorite? >> if you had to lay money down on the table, i think the president is a slight favorite as any incoming president would be. we spent all of our time, chris, talking about these races and

the context of events that have already occurred as opposed to events that are yet to occur. and there are a lot of events yet to occur this year, whether it be with iran or with occupy wall street, with the euro zone prices and who knows what's going to happen? >> i ran could be at war with another country. howard is going to stay with us tonight in msnbc's coverage. primary is going to continue for a while now. stay with us.

welcome back to this special edition of "hardball." what did romney's race tell us about the strength of the two campaigns, actually, the three campaign, including newt gingrich. he joins us, washington post columnist and msnbc's eugene wallace joins us. and then the chief washington correspondent. howard has something hot about what i always care about more than anything else, that magical word, infighting. we like that word. howard, tell us the scuttle. >> well, i think, chris, that it's been no secret that a lot of people who are friends of mitt romney's are either

presently in the campaign or outside the campaign or in the republican ranks have been a little bit unhappy with the way the campaign has been run. and this last week with the ford field fiasco and the botched trip to nascar land and various other missteps by what is supposed to be a very professional campaign, i think just kind of amplified it. that, plus the sort of notion that he hasn't improved as a candidate, that he's grinding out underway here that's going to be very costly in the long run because it's raised his negatives to a very high degree. that's caused a lot of carping. and it's focused on the current staff. and you've heard publicly from former romney people like consultant mike murphy who is also an analyst on tv and alex castalanno who has also had ties to romney's past campaigns, being very public in their criticism of the way the campaign has been run that doesn't have any vision.

and i would guess here, i don't have solid evidence of this yet, but i would guess that they're going to be some changes, not huge cataclysm because, afterall, mitt romney won both of these events tonight. but winning ugly in this way is not necessarily what the friends and supporters of mitt romney wanted. they don't really like the way the campaign has been run. >> you know, gene, you're a great writer, obviously. and you have a wonderful way of putting words together. my question is why can't romney find a speech writer? peggy, where are you? we know they're great republican speech writers. are they all employed in journalism and can't do these jobs? >> i can give you the phone number. he's a colleague of mine. >> but he's working for your post, the washington post. >> but you're right, there is no magic to mitt romney's words. and maybe this is what we've got. i do think it's possible to find a speech writer who hears

romney's voice better than romney does. who hears the resonances and the cadences of romney's voice and hears in those elements something that you can use, some clay that you can mold into something ennobling. i think it can be done. but it's not being done now. on the other hand, look. he won two primaries tonight. you know? he's got to be happy. imagine the alternative? imagine what we would be saying if he had narrowly lost in michigan or if he hasn't dominated in arizona the way he did. and, you know, in fact, it is winning ugly, but that's so much better from his point of view than losing elegantly that he, you know, he'll take it and see what he can do. >> you know, john, richard nixon, who has obviously never gotten a great run from historians, could give a very, very good speech. and he'd sit down and write them like the great speeches of '68 convention. they were barn burners.

and people like ted sorenson would say wow, what a speech. why can't romney deliver when he knows it's a big night, some kind of vision? some kind of passion. very politically savvy. wants mitt romney to be the nominee because he thinks he'd be the strongest general election candidate. and you say here's the problem. the dogs just don't like this dog food. and mitt romney seems to represent -- mitt romney seems to represent the establishment. the base doesn't like the establishment and, therefore, he is fighting like crazy to win the very republican voters that any republican nominee will get in november. and he said that -- he doesn't recall a potential republican nominee with this much difficulty at this stage since gerald ford, somebody who had to fight that hard for people who were going to be on the republican side. >> well, the strategy seems to

be if you don't like the dog food, i'll starve you until you do. so i'll get rid of all of the other dog food and all that's going to be is me. that seems to be the strategy. this next week, we know they're going to try to beat santorum in ohio. knock them out. >> that is the fundamental, strategic doctrine of the romney campaign. it goes back to the very beginning. and the guys i mentioned before, mike murphy and alex castalanos, they're from earlier iterations of romney as a politician. and they're carping from the sidelines and they're saying, hey, we remember a guy who was an engaging guy, yeah, who's a little dry but engaging and he was wholesome and people kind of liked him. and they're sort of saying we don't like what the campaign has done to a guy that we knew. if the whole purpose of the campaign is to destroy everybody and everything around him, then that takes away what we thought, i'm quoting these guys now, what we thought was ultimately was

not bad about mitt romney, which is sort of we thought he was fundamentally a pretty decent guy. and in the world of politics, to be a decent guy is kind of an inspirational thing. anyway, that's what they're saying. and i agree with gene, what the current campaign structure has to do is keep winning. if they keep winning, they'll keep the hounds at bay here. but they're ready to pounce at any minute. >> john, can you tell us -- go ahead. i just want to talk about -- we have ten races next week. is it like the academy awards? it's going ah be numbers. who wins the most elections. the guy who wins five, is he the winner? who's sixth, even? >> well, i think there's going to be special attention on ohio above every other state. rick santorum is going to make a stand there and try to -- he's been leading in the polls. and his campaign told me tonight, they don't think they've been terribly hurt here. by the way, his campaign, i got off the phone with the senior strategist who said look out, we may win more delegates than mitt romney in the state of michigan because we may win more

congressional districts that. has the potential to be like that iowa result that looks a little bit different in the light of day if, in fact, they do win a majority of those delegates. you've got a very bifurcated situation. ron paul is looking at states like alaska, like the state of washington, like idaho trying to win delegates. they think they can win delegates in vermont. newt gingrich is on the air in seven states. >> thanks a lot. i'll be right back in a moment. the speeches tonight, msnbc's coverage of the michigan and arizona primaries continues in just a moment.

>> good evening, i'm chris in new york with a special late-night edition of "hardball." tonight, mitt romney faced a dangerous proposition, losing the home state and the air of inevitability his campaign has touted for months. in michigan, with 87% of the vote in, he has 41% to reach santorum's 38%. in arizona, with 78% of the vote in, romney has 48% to santorum's 26%. can this double victory bring back the momentum romney so desperately needs to regain his

footing? can he convince the voters of ohio and other super tuesday states in next week and he has the vision and the passion to be president of the united states. great questions. and rick santorum, he might have the heart, but has he shown the voters he can win major metropolitan areas instead of just winning in rural areas? let's get more from our exit polling tonight. great to have you on the tonight. >> thank you for having me. the exit poll shows two of the keys to mitt romney's victory in the michigan-primary were electability and experience. among ronny voters, nearly half said that the quality that mattered most in deciding which candidate to support was that he can be president obama. 31% said it mattered most that the candidate has the right experience. take a look at this. when it comes to electability, romney has slipped in recent national polls against barack obama and as no better than rick santorum for the november

general election. in the view of michigan republicans tonight, romney still looks like the strongest nominee. 54% pick romney as most likely to beat obama, twice as many as rick santorum. now for a quick look at which voters supported him. he did very well among older, affluent and better-educated voters. household incomes over $100,000. look at the number, at age 65 and older at 48%. college grads, 45% went the way of mitt romney. there is still some lukewarm feelings toward romney even among those who voted for him. about have strongly favor the candidate they picked tonight. 42% have reservations. we talk a lot about that. the% said that describe their vote mainly as against the other candidates. that is a look at some of the

reasons why mitt romney won tonight. >> well said. thank you so much. the guy joining us right now, steve schmidt, has been through this race before it. what i like is when we see all that data and it matches up with what we think. the people with the big money voted for rummy. the people that won electability, older people with higher education voted for romney. there is a passion deficit here. i wonder, am i right? are we watching a totally different races right now than what we will see in november? barrise right now is who turns you on. the race in november will be, how do you the obama? it does not matter, but how you beat him? >> electability, absent absent passion is a transaction. that is what is happening right now. voters are engaged in a

transaction with mitt romney, coming to accept him as the nominee, not necessarily passionate about him. when he moved into a general election, i don't think enthusiasm will drive the outcome. i think that republican voters will unify around the nominee on the question of getting rid of the president, denying him a second term. in a perfect world, you would rather have a passion for your guidance against the other, but as long as there is some, you can work with it. >> i will ask you something fundamental. we are looking at two different realities, who the republicans like. they don't like anybody. they do know they don't like obama. when it comes time for the fall campaign, won't it all be about how much the republicans want to get rid of him? >> the democrats tried this with john kerry. it was all fired up and all this -- carey had the same sort of issue.

it was never really full for him pretty have to go back to nixon, 6'8" for someone to win without passion in their own pace. part of that was the democrats that were unified in '68. they were upset over body, some over the vietnam war. it splintered that, and nixon was able to get in there. think about every other winning presidential candidate. the year that they won, they had this passion inside their own base, the people that would crawl across broken glass. i do think romney has to figure this out to. this has been the chief complaint i have heard from republicans who would like romney to win this nomination but go out and earn it. get something that fires up the core of the heart of this party. you will not get the cultural warriors, but there is a middle ground in the middle class republican voter who isn't thrilled with wall street but isn't crazy about the cultural wars.

>> let me ask you a human question. have you met anybody who has changed? >> sure. >> i haven't. you are talking about making mitt romney in to the candidate of passion and vision and excitement. i just don't see how he makes that metamorphosis this. >> i think you are talking about change at a molecular level. the answer is no. >> how you get him to fake it? >> i think he is who he is. part of the process of running for president is you are revealed as who you are. the thing that he has control over is what he talks about. there is nothing preventing him from offering a speech tonight where he lays out a vision for the future of the country. all of the examples of his conservatism, about what he did as governor of massachusetts, not about what he will do over the next decade. he has control over power if he could do that.

>> there is a business prep proposition and not a vision. somebody said it a few minutes ago, why didn't he say what it meant to him emotionally to win in the state he was born in? >> you do wonder this. short of that, can he figure out a way to make the technocratic part of his -- i say this in some people will say that you are trying to talk about michael dukakis, but he almost needs to figure out how is that a strength? he needs to figure out how to make things work better. the government doesn't work anymore. i will make it work. he needs to figure out and take what is really bold a weakness and a strength, this cold, calculating part of his brain and use it as a strength to beat mr. fix-it. he. >> he is still focusing. about getting rid of obama as if it is the picture on the mound.

you have to replace him with the guy in the bullpen. it's not about me behind the curtain but that guy on the mound who can't get them out anymore. here he is focusing on obama again in his speech. let's watch. >> four years ago we warned that the presidency was no place for on-the-job training. today we have the economy to prove it. he fix the economy? the note. ticky-tack bolt the housing crisis? >> no. >> these days when he is not spending our money or infringing on our rights, he is busy running for reelection. did you hear this? he believes -- i would find a different spot for him. he thinks he deserves a second term. he says we can't wait, to which i say, oh, yes, we can.

>> that is a guy who has been in a corner with politicians. does he have the personal fiber to stand four or five feed and talked that way to obama? >> we will find out if he is the nominee. what i am struck by is the lack of joy. >> there is no smiles. >> i always thought in 2004 when president bush was giving it to john kerry, he always had a smile on his face. the crowd knew you what he was doing. he was enjoying it. he loved the theater of politics. when you deliver a thrust of your opponent, it's not because you have venom for him or disagree with him, but part of the theater of it. he seems really genuinely annoyed with the guy. >> i think that was supposed to be a punch line. you get it part as a joke. i think that was supposed to be a laugh line, but he didn't deliver it. i do think that was what he was trying to do. >> bob: you are so smart.

i like a man who grins when he fights. a grin. >> i go back to this acting thing. don't try to change him but figure out. this has been a frustration of people that feel like they know romney. he has put himself, i have to do all these things to do the check marks on the conservative vote, don't alienate anybody period. that is what goes into his head. somehow they believe that if you disparage the president in some way, and i will do it in the nicest way that i can, i will get an okay, he wasn't so bad from the mitt romneys and the stuff -- excuse me, rush limbaughs. and stored of taking his core strict and running on positive. >> you first, why didn't either of the candidates competing tonight talk about each other at all in their big speeches? >> santorum, both of them realized i had problems.

when you look at what is going on in ohio, they both realized that more people are seeing them. the more they have gone negative, both of their negatives have gone up. i think we have seen it with all voters. they both have an acceptable rise in that. >> will let supervises do the dirty work. >> let's see. they have to to a point, but i think a lot of the momentum will be drained out of santorum. a lot. >> there was a desire to go a long way. it now includes my home state of pennsylvania. north dakota, oklahoma, trying to make the pitch that they can produce more wealth for those areas. i really heard it tonight. >> these energy issues you night -- unite the republican voters. this is one of the areas with rising gas prices that i think

these candidates will talk a lot more about, particularly as we move ahead to some of the energy states and some of the states with great energy potential. >> you talked -- watch the obama campaign, the first tv ad was a defensive added. they do know this is their soft spot, energy. >> green jobs? >> exactly. the improving economic picture, manufacturing in michigan, there will go for the soft spot. the obama folks know that and is why they are so defensive trying to prevent these attacks. >> did rick santorum when his spot as the alternative to mitt romney, or is it a chance for newt to get back in? >> i do think it has been so volatile that if you look ahead, i think santorum has to win somewhere next week. if he doesn't win any -- >> you guys, let's start with this. ohio, best that?

>> let's talk about the one before super tuesday. washington state to back okay. >> significant woman population is what gives romney some chance. pat robertson won this bacchant '98. >> let's talk about the big states next week. ohio, best chance for santorum? >> that is if they he has to win. >> because why? >> important state, cultural, heart and soul. >> he is from the big ten. >> he is knocked on a you have to vote twice for the delicate state. santorum didn't qualify for the ballot in three cds. he could win the state's. >> i think ever since penn state joined the big ten, they call pennsylvania part of it. we will talk ohio next week. we will talk to you all week about the big states, all ten.

>> tennessee is my favorite southern state. >> also, santorum. okay. thank you, chuck todd, steve schmidt. when i come back and what is next for rick santorum, can he about to back? that is what we will talk about. steve schmidt has been talking about it all night, ohio is what you have to win in november. the michigan and arizona primary coverage will continue in a moment.

rick santorum showed he had heart tonight, but can he mount a formidable challenge fall in tonight's double losses? also with us right now is former rnc chair, michael steele. let's go to you are a principal person to talk to. you can tell us where this campaign is going. santorum talked tonight about economics, not jack kennedy and church and state, condoms and all that stuff about birth control and abortion rights.

he talked jobs and economics and minerals, minerals development. is this a pivot point toward economics? >> not necessarily a pivot point. he has talked about this for the entire campaign, you guys cover different parts of the speech. the bottom line is that we were outspent the 6-1 in mitt romney's home state. he did this three years ago. he has the most name idea of anybody and with in three points. we might have more delegates than him. mitt romney and his campaign have a serious problem. after the speeches tonight, rick santorum clearly has a passion for this country, and the voters have a passion for him. that is a big difference between the candidates. you know better than anybody, so much of politics can be boiled down to do i know you, do i trust you, and do i like you? >> i did notice tonight that it was heavily embroiled with economic opportunities and

freedom and the end of taxation. it was very much economic freedom speech. am i right? >> that will be the theme for rick santorum. it will be back to those cultural issues, which he has talked about. he has talked about them. >> yeah, he has talked about the other issues as well. cutting spending, not voting for tax increases, entitlement reform for the welfare system, those are things he accomplished in the united states senate. he can point to those and say he has dumbos before. of course he is talking about manufacturing. he knows that is important. we have a huge problem. he wants to bring those jobs back to this country. it will resonate with everybody because everybody is struggling right now. the country knows that, and he is offering a plan of vision, positive vision, to get those jobs back here. i think people see that and like that entrust rick to do it

because he has the record of doing it. >> i saw a division of property tonight. rick santorum goes from --

mitt romney, winner tonight in michigan and arizona. we are live from romney headquarters in michigan. peter, where is he headed and what does he have to do next week? >> he is going to try to hit on as many of those states as he can. we will be traveling with him, stops early tomorrow in the state of ohio. he has acknowledged that that state is going to be a big battleground in the general election. it is a state where the economy

is the primary issue and tonight his campaign is touting that the economy is their top issue. mitt romney was the heavy winner here. none the less he has a lot of questions that he still has to answer, some of those he addressed in a conversation with reporters, acknowledging some mistakes saying he is going to have to be a lot better to try to stay on message. he tried to have that happen again tonight. one thing that is noticeable is as he has said, michigan the state where he was born and raised, is personal. he stuck around a little longer than usual, really savoring this win, really recognizing the significance for him. he has got to go ohio, north dakota north dakota, the state of washington. he has got a busy seven day ace head and what we talk about tuesday will be just as important as what we are talking about tonight. >> let's go now to

howard, let's starts with this, it seems to me, howard, you have mitt romney in massachusetts, vermont and virginia. you have newt starting in west >> the two key ones are ohio and tennessee. ohio is an absolute must win, i think for both rick santorum and for mitt romney. ohio is famous as a bellwether state and a battle ground state. it rick santorum is going to win a big state, it has to be that. it neighbors his hometown of a big state, it has to be that. it neighbors his hometown of pittsburgh and butler, where he is actually from in western pennsylvania. he will be carrying his manufacturing message and he will have to carry it there. tennessee is a state where mitt romney has to show he can win southern votes and win in the bible belt. tennessee is certainly nashville with the cosmopolitan of the bible belt.

if mitt romney has a message in the south, that is key there. >> let's go to jonathan. if mitt romney wins ohio, is rick santorum having a hell of a long race to go? he cannot win if he cannot win ohio, right? >> that is right. you cannot forget about newt gingrich. he will probably take delegate rich georgia and oklahoma. if he takes tennessee, then we will have him as part of our coverage. this thing will keep going for at least another couple of months, no matter what happens on super tuesday. one of the things to look for, chris, is this rural suburban split. red america is rural. if santorum, who is not a rural candidate.

he is a suburban candidate. if he can transition to pick up all of the small towns with a republican turnout which is heavy, and can get them going against the city slicker mitt romney, he could have some success with the counties that he is not spending very much money in. the other factor is money. if foster frease wants to help him play in ohio, he could be more competitive there. >> listening to the speeches tonight, howard, they were not talking about michigan or arizona. they were talking about the states. what i heard from rick santorum was not just a passionate speech, but a particular call for support from the miners of north dakota and oklahoma and pennsylvania and ohio. the shell oil thing there. he is going for the anger against washington.

>> jonathan said it is small town and mining country. those are two things that rick santorum knows about. he grew up surrounded by and can talk about convincingly. it happens as steve schmid, it was explaining is energy. digging whether it is shale or fracking. you name it. it is something all republicans can agree on. it is a defining and unifying idea among republican voters. it is something that rick santorum that can talk and he can weave his own back ground with his grandfather who is a miner. he will carry it across the country. it is a way to go after president obama. >> i heard romney going for money tonight. here is a guy who talked to people tonight who have big incomes and wealth.

>> well, it does bother a lot of republicans. but, he has to figure out how to connect. he just is missing that con neck tiff -- connective tissue to the average voter and getting by organization and money, and strength of going after obama, and he is not getting by in the essence of connection to the voters. rick santorum's problem is one of the discipline. if he had started out with the son of a grandfather of a coal miner, he might be in the race, but he slips back to what he is an social conservative who is obsessed with the social issues which are peripheral to the economic concerns of most voters. if he can figure out how to stay more on message, he can do well,

but he cannot catch him, but he can dog him all of the way to the convention. >> well, we love him, because he answers the question. if you ask him a question about birth control, howard, he will answer it for 30 minutes. >> well, i have known rick santorum for a long time and i have covered him for a long time. he is stubborn. h he is a stubborn guy, and if you challenge him rather than trim for most of the time rather than trim, he will come straight at you and double-down on whatever the passionate belief is to mix my metaphors there. >> and it is so dumb politically, and he did in the last ten days he went after sex and jfk and college and three the most poplar things in america. >> and we have a lot of them in common in all three, i have noticed. >> and mitt romney had kid rock endorsing him. >> so straight ahead we look at the fight, and we only have a week left, howard. it seems to me that i have seen on a promotional thing, that it

is the beginning of mitt romney beginning this, or him unwrapped and does it look good for him? >> well, he is always in the process of being wrapped and unwrapped, chris, but now it is on a ten-state scale. it is the first national election in this national election year. ten states on one night, and not as big as some of the other super tuesdays have been, but still darn big. yes, mitt romney has to win ohio, and he has to win a big south certain state. and by the way, georgia was assuming and i assumed, too, that it is in newt's corner, but the polls are fairly tight there, and i know that rick santorum is going there thursday to go to the big carpet factory in dalton, georgia, and talk about manufacturing, because they lost jobs there, and all of the candidates are going to compete in georgia. it is a big state with more delegates at stake than any other state. >> and ten statuettes next week will win big to be the big artist.

>> well, it won't be a silent movie, chris. >> fortunately for us. >> thank you, howard and john. good night. mitt romney is the big winner to night and now the battle is on for big super tuesday and say i who wins five is the winner. it is a three-way fight. msnbc's coverage of the big primary fight tonight continues in a moment.

you know why i knew this rescue would succeed? you want to know? it wasn't because of anything that the government did and it was not just because of anything that management did, it was because i believed in you. i placed my bet on the american worker. and i will make that bet any day of the week. and now -- [ applause ] -- three years later, three years later that bet is paying off. that bet is paying off for you and america. three years later the american auto industry is back. >> and going back to the special late night edition of "hardball" and that was the fired up president of the united states, president obama, being cheered on for a barn burner of a speech before the united auto workers in washington earlier today

while romney and santorum fought it out for michigan, the president was reminding everyone out there that he rescued the car industry. can this fiery populist message fuel obama's chances in the 2012 race? well, that answers itself, because steve schmidt, and howard fineman are still with us. howard, being a student of musical theater, you have to remember that is the great line from "how to succeed in business" i believe in you. i can't believe that was not from that play. this "i believe in you" and he was smart enough to give the workers the credit for the industry and not himself. >> well, that is the fall campaign where you had the president although he was speaking to the the united auto workers in washington really aiming at michigan and aiming to play to get into the mix of the advertising on in michigan, and the obama campaign did, and they wanted to get into the conversation and into the mix and take the other side of the argument about the auto industry

bailouts. and they are poplar among democrats in michigan and independents in michigan, but not among the republicans, but it was a lower republican turnout in this primary in michigan, so i think that the president is pretty good shape there. that's part of what he was, what he was doing tonight. >> you know, just a few weeks ago i thought that whole part of the country was in play, but now, steve, i don't i think that it is as you, and michigan is now a democratic state. >> i think that. it is hard for me to look ahead and see how michigan is going to come back into play. this is a state that is pretty safely in the democratic side. >> and what about the other auto-producing states like ohio. indiana, and ohio and wisconsin and those kinds of states? >> well, i think that ohio is a swing state and as close as a tick can be. you know, it is a state that the republicans have to win, and just like we have seen in the last couple of elections, you are going to see a huge amount of focus and energy by both campaigns. >> howard, a labor-wise thing

that you see the uaw celebrating the comeback of an american industry to do well out there, and since the ruther brothers in the 1950s it has been the pioneer and good labor organization, opportunities like good health care and impacting their lives? >> well, chris, i am an old reporter for the news currier and newsweek and the sad thing is that while the industrial unions while we think of them emblematic of the labor union in general, are really not. the unions that matter are the teachers union, and they are the heart and soul of the party like newt gingrich and others will remind everyone of. what the romney campaign was focussed on tonight were the gallup poll numbers. the new gallup poll numbers show the president with a 43/50

favorable/unfavorable rating nationally, and also show mitt romney with a test matchup beating the president 50-46. so, the speech that he gave to the uaw today and enjoys the sort of havoc created inmishgan and the weakness and the division of the republican party, but they should not be deluded at the white thousands that it is anything but a close race, because the unemployment is over 8%, and while the auto industry was saved and thank god for that, there is a lot of work to be done. >> and steve, you seem to be admitting that the real ti of this out there in the country, and as howard is saying tonight from the gallup poll and the white house connection and i think that there is a disconnect, and this euphoria from washington is misplaced. >> well f foundational element of the race remains the same.

both sides have about 48% of the vote, and it is going to be a very, very close election in a closely divided country. it is a clear politics average which is the number that everyone looks at inside of the campaigns which is an average of all of the polls together have the president at about a 48% approval, and you know, 48, you know, 48.9% disapproval. so, i think that it is pretty clear over the past couple of months that the numbers have improve and they would come up and i would take that gallup poll and not bet the farm on it. >> who is the favorite right now knowing all we know about europe, oil prices, gas prices between now and the probability of the unemployment number, and hiking up a little bit closer to 8 or 9 again, given all off that, is the president the favorite or romney? >> if you had to lay the money down on the table right now the president is a slight favorite. >> slight favorite? >> slight favorite as any incumbent would be. and chris, we spend our time talking about the races and the events that have already occurredopposed to events yet to

occur, be it iran or occupy wall street or the eurozone crisis and who knows. >> yes, iran could be at war with who knows who. and the arizona primaries is going to continue for a while now. stay with us.

welcome back to the special edition of "hard ball" here, and what did romney's win tonight tell us about the state of the race right now and the strength of the two campaigns or the three campaigns including newt gingrich. msnbc's analyst howard fineman is back and washington post columnist and msnbc political analyst eugene joins us and as does john roberts. and i have that magical word in-fight, and howard, tell us the scuttle. >> well, i think that, chris, it has been no secret that a lot of people who are friends of mitt romney's presently in the campaign or outside of the

campaign in the republican ranks have been on a little bit unhappy with the way that the campaign has been run. and this last week with the ford fiasco and the botched trip to nascar land and various other missteps by what is supposed to be a very professional campaign just kind of amplified it. that, plus the sort of notion that, he has not improved as a candidate and he is grinding out a way here that is costly in the long run, because it has raised the negatives to a high degree, and that is causing a lot of carping, and it is focused on the current staff. you have heard publicly from former romney people like consultant mike murphy also an analyst on the tv and alex castellanos who has had ties to romney's other past campaigns, and publicly critics of the campaign saying it is a solus campaign without any energy.

they say there will be changes and not cataclysmic, because he won the night, but winning ugly this way is not what the friends and supporters of mitt romney wanted. they don't like the way the campaign has been run. >> gene, you are a great writer and pulitzer prize winner, and you have a wonderful way of putting words together, and why can't he find a speechwriter, and where is peggy noonan or landon parvin and where are they? are they all employed in journalism now and they can't do the jobs now? is that it? >> well, i can give them gerson's phone number, and he is a colleague of mine and maybe he can write for them. >> a columnist of the "washington post." >> you are right. no magic to the words. this is what we have got, but it is possible to find a speechwriter who hears romney's voice better than romney does,

but who hears the resonances and the cadences of romney's voice and hears in the elements something that you can use and clay that can be molding, but it can be done. look, he won two primaries tonight, and imagine the alternative and what we would have said if he had narrowly lost in michigan or had nated in

i talked along the lines that howard was making a moment ago with a veteran house republican tonight, very politically savvy and wants mitt romney to be the nominee, because he thinks he is the strongest general election candidate, but here is the problem, the dogs don't like the dog food, and mitt romney seems to represent, mitt romney seems to represent the establishment, and the base doesn't like the establishment, and therefore he is fighting like crazy to win the very republican voters that any republican nominee will get in november, and he said that he doesn't recall a potential republican nominee with this much difficulty at this stage since gerald ford, and somebody who had to fight that hard on the republican side in november. >> and the strategy of romney is that if you don't like the dog food, i will starve you until i do.

and i will get rid of all of the dog food until you have to eat me. and that is the strategy. and we know next week they will try to beat santorum in ohio and knock him out. >> that is the fundamental strategic doctrine of the romney campaign. it goes back to the very beginning, and the guys i mentioned before, mike murphy and alex castellanos and their further iterations of romney as a politician and carping from the sidelines and saying, hey, we remember a guy who was engaging and dry, but engaging and wholesome and people kind of liked him, and they are sort of saying, we don't like what the campaign has done to a guy that we knew. if the whole purpose of the campaign is to destroy everybody and everything around him, then that takes away what we thought, and i'm quoting these guys now, what we thought was ultimately not bad about mitt romney which is sort of that we thought he

was fun dalt algly a decent guy, and in the world of politics to be a decent guy is an inspirational thing. anyway, that is what they are saying and i agree with gene, what the current campaign structure has to do is to keep winning. if they keep winning, they will keep the hounds at bay here, but they are ready to pounce at any minute. >> john harwood, can you tell us >> chris -- >> next week, we have ten races, and it is like the academy awards and numbers who wins the most elections next week? the guy who wins five, is he the winner or six even? >> well, i think that there is going to be special attention on ohio above every other state. rick santorum is going to make a stand there, and try to, he's been leading in the polls, and his campaign told me tonight they don't believe they have been terribly hurt here, and by the way, his campaign, i got off of the phone with the senior strategist a moment ago who said, look out, we may win more delegates than mitt romney in the state of michigan, because we may win more congressional districts and that has the

potential of being like the iowa result that looks a little bit different in the light of day if in fact they do win a majority of the delegates, but you have a bifurcated situation, and ron paul is looking at states like alaska, like the state of washington, like idaho trying to win delegates, and they believe they can win delegates in vermont, and newt gingrich is on the air right now in seven states, his super pac is, and they believe they can win in georgia. >> okay. thanks a lot. ly be right back in a moment, and coming up in the next hour, the speeches tonight from rick santorum to mitt romney.

good evening, i'm chris matthews in new york with a special late night edition, and

can be president obama. 31% said it mattered most that the candidate has the right experience. take a look at this. when it comes to electability,

romney has slipped in recent national polls against barack obama and as no better than rick santorum for the november general election. in the view of michigan republicans tonight, romney still looks like the strongest nominee. 54% pick romney as most likely to beat obama, twice as many as rick santorum. now for a quick look at which voters supported him. he did very well among older, affluent and better-educated voters. household incomes over $100,000. look at the number, at age 65 and older at 48%. college grads, 45% went the way of mitt romney. there is still some lukewarm feelings toward romney even among those who voted for him. about have strongly favor the candidate they picked tonight. 42% have reservations. we talk a lot about that.

they said that describe their vote mainly as against the other candidates. that is a look at some of the reasons why mitt romney won tonight. >> well said. thank you so much. the guy joining us right now, steve schmidt, has been through this race before it. what i like is when we see all that data and it matches up with what we think. the people with the big money voted for romney. the people that won electability, older people with higher education voted for romney. there is a passion deficit here. i wonder, am i right? are we watching a totally different race right now than what we will see in november? the race right now is who turns you on. the race in november will be, how do you the obama? it does not matter, but how you beat him? >> electability, absent passion is a transaction. that is what is happening right now. voters are engaged in a

transaction with mitt romney, coming to accept him as the nominee, not necessarily passionate about him. when he moved into a general election, i don't think enthusiasm will drive the outcome. i think that republican voters will unify around the nominee on the question of getting rid of the president, denying him a second term. in a perfect world, you would rather have a passion for your guidance against the other, but as long as there is some, you can work with it. >> i will ask you something fundamental. we are looking at two different realities, who the republicans like. they don't like anybody. they do know they don't like obama. when it comes time for the fall campaign, won't it all be about how much the republicans want to get rid of him? >> the democrats tried this with john kerry. it was all fired up and all this -- carey had the same sort of issue.

it was never really full for him pretty have to go back to nixon, '68, for someone to win without passion in their own pace. part of that was the democrats that were unified in '68. they were upset over body, some over the vietnam war. it splintered that, and nixon was able to get in there. think about every other winning presidential candidate. the year that they won, they had this passion inside their own base, the people that would crawl across broken glass. i do think romney has to figure this out to. this has been the chief complaint i have heard from republicans who would like romney to win this nomination but go out and earn it. get something that fires up the core of the heart of this party. you will not get the cultural warriors, but there is a middle ground in the middle class republican voter who isn't thrilled with wall street but isn't crazy about the cultural

wars. >> let me ask you a human question. have you met anybody who has changed? >> sure. >> i haven't. you are talking about making mitt romney in to the candidate of passion and vision and excitement. i just don't see how he makes that metamorphosis this. >> i think you are talking about change at a molecular level. the answer is no. >> how you get him to fake it? >> i think he is who he is. part of the process of running for president is you are revealed as who you are. the thing that he has control over is what he talks about. there is nothing preventing him from offering a speech tonight where he lays out a vision for the future of the country. all of the examples of his conservatism, about what he did as governor of massachusetts, not about what he will do over the next decade. he has control over power if he could do that.

>> there is a business prep proposition and not a vision. somebody said it a few minutes ago, why didn't he say what it meant to him emotionally to win in the state he was born in? >> you do wonder this. short of that, can he figure out a way to make the technocratic part of his -- i say this in some people will say that you are trying to talk about michael dukakis, but he almost needs to figure out how is that a strength? he needs to figure out how to make things work better. the government doesn't work anymore. i will make it work. he needs to figure out and take what is really both a weakness and a strength, this cold, calculating part of his brain and use it as a strength to beat mr. fix-it. he. >> he is still focusing. about getting rid of obama as if

it is the pitcher on the mound. you have to replace him with the guy in the bullpen. it's not about me behind the curtain but that guy on the mound who can't get them out anymore. here he is focusing on obama again in his speech. let's watch. >> four years ago we warned that the presidency was no place for on-the-job training. today we have the economy to prove it. he fix the economy? tackle bolt the housing crisis? >> no. >> these days when he is not spending our money or infringing on our rights, he is busy running for reelection. did you hear this? he believes -- i would find a different spot for him. he thinks he deserves a second term. he says we can't wait, to which i say, oh, yes, we can.

>> that is a guy who has been in a corner with politicians. does he have the personal fiber to stand four or five feet and talk that way to obama? >> we will find out if he is the nominee. what i am struck by is the lack of joy. >> there is no smiles. >> i always thought in 2004 when president bush was giving it to john kerry, he always had a smile on his face. the crowd knew what he was doing. he was enjoying it. he loved the theater of politics. when you deliver a thrust of your opponent, it's not because you have venom for him or disagree with him, but part of the theater of it. he seems really genuinely annoyed with the guy. >> i think that was supposed to be a punch line. you get it part as a joke. i think that was supposed to be a laugh line, but he didn't deliver it. i do think that was what he was trying to do.

>> bob: you are so smart. i like a man who grins when he fights. a grin. >> i go back to this acting thing. don't try to change him but figure out. this has been a frustration of people that feel like they know romney. he has put himself, i have to do all these things to do the check marks on the conservative vote, don't alienate anybody period. that is what goes into his head. somehow they believe that if you disparage the president in some way, and i will do it in the nicest way that i can, i will get an okay, he wasn't so bad from the mitt romneys and the stuff -- excuse me, rush limbaughs. and stored of taking his core strict and running on positive. >> you first, why didn't either of the candidates competing tonight talk about each other at all in their big speeches? >> santorum, both of them

realized they had problems. when you look at what is going on in ohio, they both realized that more people are seeing them. the more they have gone negative, both of their negatives have gone up. i think we have seen it with all voters. they both have an acceptable rise in that. >> will let supervises do the dirty work. >> let's see. they have to to a point, but i think a lot of the momentum will be drained out of santorum. a lot. >> there was a desire to go a long way. it now includes my home state of pennsylvania. north dakota, oklahoma, trying to make the pitch that they can produce more wealth for those areas. i really heard it tonight. >> these energy issues unite the republican voters. this is one of the areas with rising gas prices that i think these candidates will talk a lot

more about, particularly as we move ahead to some of the energy states and some of the states with great energy potential. >> you talked -- watch the obama campaign, the first tv ad was a defensive add. they do know this is their soft spot, energy. >> green jobs? >> exactly. the improving economic picture, manufacturing in michigan, there will go for the soft spot. the obama folks know that and is why they are so defensive trying to prevent these attacks. >> did rick santorum win his spot as the alternative to mitt romney, or is it a chance for newt to get back in? >> i do think it has been so volatile that if you look ahead, i think santorum has to win somewhere next week. if he doesn't win any -- >> you guys, let's start with this.

ohio, best bet? >> let's talk about the one before super tuesday. washington state to back okay. >> significant woman population is what gives romney some chance. pat robertson won this bacchant '98. >> let's talk about the big states next week. ohio, best chance for santorum? >> that is if they he has to win. >> because why? >> important state, cultural, heart and soul. >> he is from the big ten. >> he is knocked on a you have to vote twice for the delicate state. santorum didn't qualify for the ballot in three cds. he could win the state. >> i think ever since penn state joined the big ten, they call pennsylvania part of it. we will talk ohio next week. we will talk to you all week about the big states, all ten.

>> tennessee is my favorite southern state. >> also, santorum. okay. thank you, chuck todd, steve schmidt. when i come back and what is next for rick santorum, can he bounce back? that is what we will talk about. steve schmidt has been talking about it all night, ohio is what you have to win in november. the michigan and arizona primary coverage will continue in a moment.

rick santorum showed he had heart tonight, but can he mount a formidable challenge after tonight's double losses? also with us right now is former rnc chair, michael steele. let's go to you are a principal person to talk to. you can tell us where this campaign is going. santorum talked tonight about economics, not jack kennedy and church and state, condoms and all that stuff about birth

control and abortion rights. he talked jobs and economics and minerals, minerals development. is this a pivot point toward economics? >> not necessarily a pivot point. he has talked about this for the entire campaign, you guys cover different parts of the speech. the bottom line is that we were outspent the 6-1 in mitt romney's home state. he did this three years ago. he has the most name idea of anybody and with in three points. we might have more delegates than him. mitt romney and his campaign have a serious problem. after the speeches tonight, rick santorum clearly has a passion for this country, and the voters have a passion for him. that is a big difference between the candidates. you know better than anybody, so much of politics can be boiled down to do i know you, do i trust you, and do i like you? >> i did notice tonight that it

was heavily embroidered with economic opportunities and freedom and the end of taxation. it was very much economic freedom speech. am i right? >> that will be the theme for rick santorum. it will be back to those cultural issues, which he has talked about. he has talked about them. >> yeah, he has talked about the other issues as well. cutting spending, not voting for tax increases, entitlement reform for the welfare system, those are things he accomplished in the united states senate. he can point to those and say he has done these before. of course he is talking about manufacturing. he knows that is important. we have a huge problem. he wants to bring those jobs back to this country. it will resonate with everybody because everybody is struggling right now. the country knows that, and he is offering a plan of vision, positive vision, to get those jobs back here. i think people see that and like that entrust rick to do it

because he has the record of doing it. >> i saw a division of property tonight. rick santorum goes from -- i saw all of that tonight. i watched mitt romney go for it. >> that state much like michigan will be a big battle ground.

stuck around a little bit longer than usual, chris, shaking hands, laboring here, really savoring this win, recognizing its significance for him really would have upended this race, but he still heads to ohio, he's going to north carolina, he's going to the state of washington. he's get a busy seven days ah d ahead, and tuesday will be just as important as tonight. >> let's go for more on the upcoming contest next

howard, let's starts with this, it seems to me, howard, you have mitt romney in massachusetts, vermont and virginia. you have newt starting in west virginia. >> the two key ones are ohio and tennessee. ohio is an absolute must win, i think for both rick santorum and for mitt romney. ohio is famous as a bellwether state and a battle ground state. if rick santorum is going to win a big state, it has to be that. it neighbors his hometown of pittsburgh and butler, where he is actually from in western pennsylvania. he will be carrying his manufacturing message and he will have to carry it there. tennessee is a state where mitt romney has to show he can win southern votes and win in the bible belt. tennessee is certainly nashville with the cosmopolitan of the

bible belt. if mitt romney has a message in the south, that is key there. >> let's go to jonathan. if mitt romney wins ohio, is rick santorum having a hell of a long race to go? he cannot win if he cannot win ohio, right? >> that is right. you cannot forget about newt gingrich. he will probably take delegate rich georgia and oklahoma. if he takes tennessee, then we will have him as part of our coverage. this thing will keep going for at least another couple of months, no matter what happens on super tuesday. one of the things to look for, chris, is this rural suburban split. red america is rural. if santorum, who is not a rural candidate.

he is a suburban candidate. if he can transition to pick up all of the small towns with a republican turnout which is heavy, and can get them going against the city slicker mitt romney, he could have some success with the counties that he is not spending very much money in. the other factor is money. if foster frease wants to help him play in ohio, he could be more competitive there. >> listening to the speeches tonight, howard, they were not talking about michigan or arizona. they were talking about the states. what i heard from rick santorum was not just a passionate speech, but a particular call for support from the miners of north dakota and oklahoma and pennsylvania and ohio. the shell oil thing there. he is going for the anger against washington.

>> jonathan said it is small town and mining country. those are two things that rick santorum knows about. he grew up surrounded by and can talk about convincingly. it happens as steve schmid, it was explaining is energy. digging whether it is shale or fracking. you name it. it is something all republicans can agree on. it is a defining and unifying idea among republican voters. it is something that rick santorum that can talk and he can weave his own back ground with his grandfather who is a miner. he will carry it across the country. it is a way to go after president obama. >> i heard romney going for money tonight. here is a guy who talked to people tonight who have big incomes and wealth.

if he had started out with the son of a grandfather of a coal miner, he might be in the race, but he slips back to what he is an social conservative who is obsessed with the social issues which are peripheral to the economic concerns of most voters. if he can figure out how to stay more on message, he can do well,

but he cannot catch him, but he can dog him all of the way to the convention. >> well, we love him, because he answers the question. if you ask him a question about birth control, howard, he will answer it for 30 minutes. >> well, i have known rick santorum for a long time and i have covered him for a long time. he is stubborn. he is a stubborn guy, and if you challenge him rather than trim for most of the time rather than trim, he will come straight at you and double-down on whatever the passionate belief is to mix my metaphors there. >> and it is so dumb politically, and he did in the last ten days he went after sex and jfk and college and three the most popular things in america. >> and we have a lot of them in common in all three, i have noticed. >> and mitt romney had kid rock endorsing him. >> so straight ahead we look at the fight, and we only have a week left, howard. it seems to me that i have seen on a promotional thing, that it

is the beginning of mitt romney beginning this, or him unwrapped and does it look good for him? >> well, he is always in the process of being wrapped and unwrapped, chris, but now it is on a ten-state scale. it is the first national election in this national election year. ten states on one night, and not as big as some of the other super tuesdays have been, but still darn big. yes, mitt romney has to win ohio, and he has to win a big southrn state. and by the way, georgia was assuming and i assumed, too, that it is in newt's corner, but the polls are fairly tight there, and i know that rick santorum is going there thursday to go to the big carpet factory in dalton, georgia, and talk about manufacturing, because they lost jobs there, and all of the candidates are going to compete in georgia. it is a big state with more delegates at stake than any other state. >> and ten statuettes next week will win big to be the big artist.

>> well, it won't be a silent movie, chris. >> fortunately for us. >> thank you, howard and john. good night. mitt romney is the big winner to night and now the battle is on for big super tuesday and say i who wins five is the winner. it is a three-way fight. msnbc's coverage of the big primary fight tonight continues in a moment.

you know why i knew this rescue would succeed? you want to know? it wasn't because of anything that the government did and it was not just because of anything that management did, it was because i believed in you. i placed my bet on the american worker. and i will make that bet any day of the week. and now -- [ applause ] -- three years later, three years later that bet is paying off. that bet is paying off for you and america. three years later the american auto industry is back. >> and going back to the special late night edition of "hardball" and that was the fired up president of the united states, president obama, being cheered on for a barn burner of a speech before the united auto workers in washington earlier today

while romney and santorum fought it out for michigan, the president was reminding everyone out there that he rescued the car industry. can this fiery populist message fuel obama's chances in the 2012 race? well, that answers itself, because steve schmidt, and howard fineman are still with us. howard, being a student of musical theater, you have to remember that is the great line from "how to succeed in business" i believe in you. i can't believe that was not from that play. this "i believe in you" and he was smart enough to give the workers the credit for the industry and not himself. >> well, that is the fall campaign where you had the president although he was speaking to the the united auto workers in washington really aiming at michigan and aiming to play to get into the mix of the advertising on in michigan, and the obama campaign did, and they wanted to get into the conversation and into the mix and take the other side of the

argument about the auto industry bailouts. and they are poplar among democrats in michigan and independents in michigan, but not among the republicans, but it was a lower republican turnout in this primary in michigan, so i think that the president is pretty good shape there. that's part of what he was, what he was doing tonight. >> you know, just a few weeks ago i thought that whole part of the country was in play, but now, steve, i don't i think that it is as you, and michigan is now a democratic state. >> i think that. it is hard for me to look ahead and see how michigan is going to come back into play. this is a state that is pretty safely in the democratic side. >> and what about the other auto-producing states like ohio. indiana, and ohio and wisconsin and those kinds of states? >> well, i think that ohio is a swing state and as close as a tick can be. you know, it is a state that the republicans have to win, and just like we have seen in the last couple of elections, you are going to see a huge amount of focus and energy by both campaigns. >> howard, a labor-wise thing

that you see the uaw celebrating the comeback of an american industry to do well out there, and since the ruther brothers in the 1950s it has been the pioneer and good labor organization, opportunities like good health care and impacting their lives? >> well, chris, i am an old reporter for the news courier and newsweek and the sad thing is that while the industrial unions while we think of them emblematic of the labor union in general, are really not. the unions that matter are the teachers union, and they are the heart and soul of the party like newt gingrich and others will remind everyone of. what the romney campaign was focussed on tonight were the gallup poll numbers. the new gallup poll numbers show

the president with a 43/50 favorable/unfavorable rating nationally, and also show mitt romney with a test matchup beating the president 50-46. so, the speech that he gave to the uaw today and enjoys the sort of havoc created in michigan and the weakness and the division of the republican party, but they should not be deluded at the white thousands that it is anything but a close race, because the unemployment is over 8%, and while the auto industry was saved and thank god for that, there is a lot of work to be done. >> and steve, you seem to be admitting that the reality of this out there in the country, and as howard is saying tonight from the gallup poll and the white house connection and i think that there is a disconnect, and this euphoria from washington is misplaced.

>> well the foundational element of the race remains the same. both sides have about 48% of the vote, and it is going to be a very, very close election in a closely divided country. it is a clear politics average which is the number that everyone looks at inside of the campaigns which is an average of all of the polls together have the president at about a 48% approval, and you know, 48, you know, 48.9% disapproval. so, i think that it is pretty clear over the past couple of months that the numbers have improve and they would come up and i would take that gallup poll and not bet the farm on it. >> who is the favorite right now knowing all we know about europe, oil prices, gas prices between now and the probability of the unemployment number, and hiking up a little bit closer to 8 or 9 again, given all off that, is the president the favorite or romney? >> if you had to lay the money down on the table right now the president is a slight favorite. >> slight favorite? >> slight favorite as any incumbent would be. and chris, we spend our time talking about the races and the events that have already

occurred opposed to events yet to occur, be it iran or occupy wall street or the eurozone crisis and who knows. >> yes, iran could be at war with who knows who. and the arizona primaries is going to continue for a while now. stay with us.

welcome back to the special edition of "hard ball" here, and what did romney's win tonight tell us about the state of the race right now and the strength of the two campaigns or the three campaigns including newt gingrich. msnbc's analyst howard fineman is back and washington post columnist and msnbc political analyst eugene joins us and as does john roberts. and i have that magical word in-fight, and howard, tell us the scuttle. >> well, i think that, chris, it has been no secret that a lot of people who are friends of mitt romney's presently in the campaign or outside of the

campaign in the republican ranks have been on a little bit unhappy with the way that the campaign has been run. and this last week with the ford fiasco and the botched trip to nascar land and various other missteps by what is supposed to be a very professional campaign just kind of amplified it. that, plus the sort of notion that, he has not improved as a candidate and he is grinding out a way here that is costly in the long run, because it has raised the negatives to a high degree, and that is causing a lot of carping, and it is focused on the current staff. you have heard publicly from former romney people like consultant mike murphy also an analyst on the tv and alex castellanos who has had ties to

romney's other past campaigns, and publicly critics of the campaign saying it is a solus campaign without any energy. they say there will be changes and not cataclysmic, because he won the night, but winning ugly this way is not what the friends and supporters of mitt romney wanted. they don't like the way the campaign has been run. >> gene, you are a great writer and pulitzer prize winner, and you have a wonderful way of putting words together, and why can't he find a speechwriter, and where is peggy noonan or landon parvin and where are they? are they all employed in journalism now and they can't do the jobs now? is that it? >> well, i can give them gerson's phone number, and he is a colleague of mine and maybe he can write for them. >> a columnist of the "washington post." >> you are right.

no magic to the words. this is what we have got, but it is possible to find a speechwriter who hears romney's voice better than romney does, but who hears the resonances and the cadences of romney's voice and hears in the elements something that you can use and clay that can be molding, but it can be done. look, he won two primaries tonight, and imagine the alternative and what we would have said if he had narrowly lost in michigan or had nated in arizona, but winning ugly is so much better from his point of view than losing elegantly that he, you know, he will take it and see what he d do on super

tuesday. >> and john harwood, richard nixon never got a great run from historians could give a very, very good speech, and he would sit down to write them like the great speeches of the '68 convention and '60 convention and they were barn burners and people like ted sorenson would say, wow, what a speech! and why can't romney deliver when he knows it is a big night, some kind of vision or passion? >> well, i think that it goes back to mitt romney's personality. i talked along the lines that howard was making a moment ago with a veteran house republican tonight, very politically savvy and wants mitt romney to be the nominee, because he thinks he is the strongest general election candidate, but here is the problem, the dogs don't like the dog food, and mitt romney seems to represent, mitt romney seems to represent the establishment, and the base doesn't like the establishment, and therefore he is fighting like crazy to win the very republican voters that any republican nominee will get in november, and he said that he

doesn't recall a potential republican nominee with this much difficulty at this stage since gerald ford, and somebody who had to fight that hard on the republican side in november. >> and the strategy of romney is that if you don't like the dog food, i will starve you until i do. and i will get rid of all of the dog food until you have to eat me. and that is thstrategy. and we know next week they will try to beat santorum in ohio and knock him out. >> that is the fundamental strategic doctrine of the romney campaign. it goes back to the very beginning, and the guys i mentioned before, mike murphy and alex castellanos and their further iterations of romney as a politician and carping from the sidelines and saying, hey, we remember a guy who was engaging and dry, but engaging and wholesome and people kind of liked him, and they are sort of saying, we don't like what the campaign has done to a guy that we knew. if the whole purpose of the campaign is to destroy everybody and everything around him, then that takes away what we thought, and i'm quoting these guys now, what we thought was ultimately

not bad about mitt romney which is sort of that we thought he was fun dalt algly a decent guy, and in the world of politics to be a decent guy is an inspirational thing. anyway, that is what they are saying and i agree with gene, what the current campaign structure has to do is to keep winning. if they keep winning, they will keep the hounds at bay here, but they are ready to pounce at any minute. >> john harwood, can you tell us -- >> chris -- >> next week, we have ten races, and it is like the academy awards and numbers who wins the most elections next week? the guy who wins five, is he the winner or six even? >> well, i think that there is going to be special attention on ohio above every other state. rick santorum is going to make a stand there, and try to, he's been leading in the polls, and his campaign told me tonight they don't believe they have been terribly hurt here, and by the way, his campaign, i got off of the phone with the senior strategist a moment ago who said, look out, we may win more delegates than mitt romney in the state of michigan, because we may win more congressional districts and that has the

potential of being like the iowa result that looks a little bit different in the light of day if in fact they do win a majority of the delegates, but you have a bifurcated situation, and ron paul is looking at states like alaska, like the state of washington, like idaho trying to win delegates, and they believe they can win delegates in vermont, and newt gingrich is on the air right now in seven states, his super pac is, and they believe they can win in georgia. >> okay. thanks a lot. ly be right back in a moment, and coming up in the next hour, the speeches tonight from rick santorum to mitt romney.