hello, everyone. it is high noon in the east, 9:00 a.m. in the west. welcome to "weekends with alex witt." here are the stories trending right now. new twists in the trayvon martin case. the battle for the badger state with some key developments. taylor swift changes the plans. the mega-millions lottery mystery and dare i say it, linjury. those stories this hour, but first, up-front page politics. just two days before wisconsin's gop primary, rick santorum refusing to bow out. >> one thing worse than a convention, and that is a convention fight, and that's picking the wrong candidate. not picking the best candidate to give us the best chance to win. >> during another appearance on another sunday talk show, vice president joe biden taking aim at mitt romney. >> says, you know, let the mortgage market hit the bottom, you know, and the foreclosures, you know. i just -- this is about the middle class.

and none of what he's offering does anything. >> campaigning in wisconsin saturday with congress paul ryan. mitt romney took questions from the crowd. one woman asked him to explain the difference between president obama's health care law and the one romney helped develop in massachusetts while governor. >> one reason i believe this obama care is unconstitutional is that it grabs from the states and from the people the powers that were guaranteed by the constitution. our plan in our state was a state plan. president obama's plan is a federal takeover taking away rights of citizens and states. >> joining me now, cnbc chief washington correspondent and political writer for "the new york times," john harwood and editor of citizen jane politics, patricia murphy, also a contributor for "newsweek" and the daily beast. good day. glad you're both here. >> good morning, alex. >> alex. >> the latest poll shows romney up in wisconsin, rick santorum still in full frontal attack.

how will this end for santorum and his standing within the gop? newt gingrich has somewhat backed off the romney attacks now. >> well, in the end, santorum is going to lose. but he is trying to take a long-shot notion that he can bump in mitt romney in wisconsin or states coming up. we then go to pennsylvania in a couple week, and there are other states in the northeast. his chances are very, very minimal, but it's difficult for a candidate who pours his heart and soul into a campaign like this, somebody like rainstorm who's achieved way beyond what anybody expected him to do, to come to terms with the fact they're not likely to win the race. we've seen over and over in illinois, michigan, ohio, the kind of momentum halting event, victories that he needs to score to stop mitt romney, he simply hasn't been able to do. if he can do it in wisconsin, you know, we can re-evaluate, but there's little reason to expect that right now. >> yeah. patricia, the toll is clear in this gop battle.

you have romney unfavorable numbers up to 50% in the latest "washington post"/abc news poll. he's not exactly the charismatic type of campaigner to turn those numbers around. can anyone survive those unfavorables while in a general election? >> well, the answer is yes, you can, but it is incredibly difficult. bill clinton had similarly low numbers in 1992 about this point, but that was just an incredibly unpredictable race. we also saw ross perot get into it. there are a lot of factors that contributed to both clinton winning in the end. for mitt romney, i think that, you know, he doesn't have a second chance to make a first impression with a lot of these voters. you dig into these numbers, i think the most conditioning number has to be with independent voters, 52% of independent voters see him unfavorably, just 35% see him favorably. it will be very difficult for him to turn that on the other hand, especially with the new method of campaigning, youtube, twitter, all these things have been archived and will be brought back again and again and

again in the general election. there's no way he's going to get away from the gaffes he's been committing throughout the course of this campaign. >> conversely, you have president obama, who's shown he can be an inspirational campaigner. listen to this. >> if you're willing to keep pushing with me and keep fighting with me, keep reaching for that vision that we believe in, then i promise you we won't just win another election, but we will finish what we started in 2008 and this country will be better for it, and we will remind the world just why it is that the united states of america's the greatest nation on earth. >> patricia, can he recapture the 2008 magic or does he even need to given that the competition is viewed so unfavorably? >> well, i think he needs to recapture at least a little of that magic, and we've seen his numbers -- mitt romney is not looking great in the polls. barack obama is not running away with this.

either mitt romney looks like he's just trying to help the president out. but the president, his favorabilities are just ticking around 49%, 50%. he'd like to see that a lot higher. key interest groups, especially young voters, have been quite dispinted in this president. lots and lots of press about young voters didn't get what they thought they were going to get out of this president. but as you said, i mean, he is rhetorically absolutely fabulous on the stump. he's going to have to recapture that. he's not going to be able to walk away with this nomination without this victory. he won't be able to walk to victory without recapturing some of that. he has to win it. he won't get away with not campaigning, not recapturing what he had in 2008, at least some of it. >> john, you heard vice president biden attacking romney as being out of touch with the middle class. what do you think the main arguments from both sides will be? >> the main argument for mitt romney is going to be barack obama simply hasn't turned around the economy as robustly as he said he was going to do. and by the way, he's raised the deficit, that he's expanded the

scope and role of the federal government and-in ways that many americans don't like. president obama's arguments going to be we're on the right track, things are finally getting better. i agree with patricia, he cannot recapture the imagine nick the same way he did in 2008. that's gone and won't be coming back. but he can inspire his base. he's a very effective campaigner. republicans know it. and democrats know that mitt romney is likely to be the nominee, which is one of the reasons why we see republican politicians rallying around romney. they need to get going, start building the campaign apparatus the democrats are already building in chicago under barack obama because they understand that they're in a general election right now. they're targeting mitt romney, and romney is bogged down to some degree at the moment with rick santorum. one of the interesting wild cards, alex, is going to be this ruling we get out of the supreme court in a couple months, because if in fact the individual mandate is struck down gutting president obama's law, that could have a

tremendous energizing effect on democrat who is look at the supreme court and say just like in bush v. gore we had a 5-4 or a republican-dominated decision counter to our interests, and that would help him get some of that magic back from 2008. >> yep. patricia, quickly, you agree that would be a problem for the republicans? >> i actually disagree a little bit. i think the republicans are able to say we warned you, president obama was trying to basically take over your lives with the government and the supreme court agrees with us. i think it will have an equally energizing effect for republicans. they just want to get this president out of office. if they can turn to their voters and say the supreme court agrees with us, i think that's going to help them a bit, too. >> patricia murphy, john harwood, thank you. jool a new twist in the trayvon martin case being reported today in an orlando newspaper. it has to do with screens on the 911 calls. kerry sanders is is live in downtown miami where a protest is planned today. what is what is the newspaper

reporting? >> reporter: okay. first of all, the "orlando sentinel" reached out to two experts, audio experts who can listen to 911 calls or other sorts of recordings and make conclusions based on those. now, we've spoke on the both of those experts. the paper said that what they discovered, and now that i've spoke on the both experts, we now know that they came to the conclusion that the screams on the 911 call were those of somebody other than zimmerman. again, this is what the experts are telling nbc news. tom owen, a forensic consultant, his company is owen forensic service, he uses a technology which is similar he claims to what the nsa and the cia do. he gets a sample of george zimmerman's voice. he did that because george zimmerman dialed into 911 and identified himself, so he has that. he takes that and puts it in a computer and eliminates all of

other conversations from in this case the 911 operator and butts it all together. then he takes the scream sound and puts that on the same time line on the computer and puts it into a program which is called ez voice biometrics. it sounds a little high techie, but he says it has been used for quite some time to get into the details of determining whether that is, indeed, somebody's voice. he says the analysis comes back with a 99% certainty that the voice heard in that scream is not george zimmerman's voice. george zimmerman, of course, is the white hispanic man month who had the gun who shot 17-year-old trayvon martin. now, another expert also contacted by the "orlando sentinel" now also contacted by nbc news, says that he uses a different technology. his name is ed primeau. what he does is he took the

audio recording with that scream from a website. he took that and he began to analyze the highs and the lows and the pitches of the voice. it's a little bit different of a technique. and sometimes not accepted in court. other times accepted in court. and he says based on the pitch and the range of the voice it could not be somebody who was 30 years or older. it would be somebody who was younger. but he does not conclude that it is trayvon's voice. he simply says that the voice analysis he does is somebody who is younger than george zimmerman. so that is the analysis, and of course this is all outside of law enforcement. this was initiated by the newspaper, the "orlando sentinel," and now we have spoken to those experts and now you've got the details of what they have concluded, alex. >> this is the first time we're hearing the details in such detail. kerry, just to confirm, these are two independent sources that have both concluded but not

irrefutably, neither of them have reached 100% confirmation that the voice on the tape is not george zimmerman's but it is probably -- >> reporter: yes, exactly. you got it. and remember, these are the screams that are heard before the shots. and this is when there was allegedly some sort of confrontation between the two. remember, in this very volatile situation, there's going to be a large crowd of people coming out here to protest again today about this, there is no eyewitness who saw exactly what happened. george zimmerman has said through his attorney he was simply defending himself, that 17-year-old trayvon martin attacked him. of course the belief among trayvon martin's family and so many others is that george zimmerman, because we've heard those 911 calls, told the operator that he was pursuing him, he was following him, even though the operator told him to turn around and that is not his job, to back away, then got into

some sort of confrontation, a shot was fired and a 17-year-old was shot and killed. >> kerry, one more thing. it's my understanding that because we don't have trayvon martin's voice recorded somewhere, you can't say not only is this not george zimmerman's voice but you cannot conclusively say that it is the screaming voice of trayvon martin. >> reporter: exactly. because, remember, this is an analysis where they are matching details. so they have george zimmerman's voice from both tests, and two different technologies, and they can conclude certain details based on that. but absent a recording of trayvon martin's voice, they cannot reach the conclusion, although it's believed those were the only two people there, and so were it not to be george zimmerman's voice the only person left there at that scene would have been trayvon martin. >> i feel like we've been having a discussion in the court of law trying to get it all straight, but thank you very much, kerry

sanders. i appreciate it. at the top of the next hour, we'll hear from one of the voice recognition experts quoted in the "orlando sentinel" report and with whom kerry has spoken as well. no word on who brought the winning tickets in the mega-millions lottery. we know that the prize winning tickets were sold in illinois, kansas, around maryland. kevin tibbles is in illinois with the latest. hello, kevin. >> reporter: well, alex, as you can imagine, the town of red butt is just abuzz with people talk about who won this ticket. but unfortunately, as in other places across the country where a winning ticket was sold, nobody's come forward. the motomart store was all abuzz in red bud, illinois. >> couldn't wait to talk to somebody and share it, like you can't believe it. oh, my god, we sold the winning ticket. >> when news of someone in their midst had shared in the largest lottery jackpot ever, folks got

to talking. >> i bought one last night, too, but it wasn't me. only got two numbers. >> red bud, population 3,500, is about an hour east of st. louis. >> puts red bud on the map a little bit. >> reporter: still the winner hasn't come forward, even though the lottery man with the big check has been spotted around town. red bud is not alone. in maryland, customers checked their numbers at the 7-eleven. >> except for this store here, i've been everywhere. >> reporter: officials say a winning quick pick ticket was bought here. >> our advice to the player is to safeguard the ticket, sign the back of it. >> reporter: they're eager to pay it out to whoever steps forward, but in maryland, you have the right to keep that to yourself. the third big winner is somewhere in northeast kansas, but in kansas you're not required to come forward either. and besides, lottery offices are closed there for the weekend. back in red bud, everyone just wants to know who is their lucky neighbor. now, folks here in red bud do

have a sense of humor. but maybe that this is a bit of a tricky way to find out who the winner really is, alex, because now they're giving out t-shirts that are telling all of us who isn't the winner. by the way, i could put this on, too, because i wasn't a winner either. >> right? you showed up to work today. i got your number. thank you very much, kevin tibbles. that's hysterical. it is politically explosive even if it's not supposed to be. new theories on what happens in the presidential election if the supreme court overturns the health care law. dude you gotta be entertaining. yeah lunch announcements are primetime. [ male announcer ] lunchables peanut butter and jelly with a crispy rice treat. feed your great ideas. [ feedback ] ♪ it's peanut butter jelly time ♪ ♪ peanut butter jelly time ♪ peanut butter jelly time ♪ peanut butter jelly ♪ peanut butter jelly

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we're talking about a specific case that happened two years ago in which a man walking down the street was attacked by a dog and shot it and they threw that man in jail the next day. they said if you kill a dog in this town you'll be locked up the next day. >> that was ben jealous calling for justice in the death of 17-year-old trayvon martin. today lawyers for the teen's family want the government to investigate this report that state prosecutors would not let sanford police arrest his accused shooter, george zimmerman. joining me now, criminal defense attorney, former federal prosecutor jay fahey as well as georgetown legal scholar and law professor christopher metzler. thanks for being here. >> hi. >> chris, we just heard naacp chair ben jealous, the president, he was commenting about the contrasting laws in south florida, basically shoot and kill a dog, you go to jail, stand your ground and kill an unarmed teen, you basically go home. it is mind numbing to think this can happen. how does this happen legally? >> well, okay, a couple of

things. let's separate the law from the rhetoric, and i think what has happened in this particular case is there's simply too much hot rhetoric about what people think the law is as opposed to what the law needs to be. the problem in this particular case is whether or not this man if he's ever arrested is going to be able to get a fair trial, and it doesn't look like that. what you've got is you've got people on either side of this issue kind of ginning up and creating all of this hot rhetoric. let the courts decide what's going to happen. my concern is those people who are saying justice for trayvon -- actually, trayvon may not get any justice because there may not get a fair trial. >> people are very passionate about this. talking act these telephone calls and the analysis of them, whether you can prove it irrefutably. people are incredibly passionate about it and i understand that. take that into a court of law, jay, i mean, how do you work

with that? it's been more than a month since the shooting takes place. you've got people almost on a daily basis becoming more and more certain of their positions here. >> i think it's going to be difficult, but the answer to that question is when president reagan was shot, when john lennon was shot, at a point in time you're going to find a grand jury to consider an indictment or not an indictment and at another point in time, if there is an indictment, you're going to find a regular jury that can handle it. but i agree completely with the professor, it's gotten out of control. i wish the authorities would either fish or cut bait. present it to a grand jury and he either gets -- >> it's not helping. >> right. >> is this taking too long? is there some reason they are trying to scrutinize this so carefully now for fear of inflaming either side? >> i think that the press has pushed the attorney general's office and the law enforcement authority so much that they're reluctant to just do an arrest because they're going to be accused of placating the press.

with that said, the correct way to -- >> placate the press and by the way so many other people, thousands and thousands of people clamoring for this. >> any case like this has to go to a grand jury. with the grand jury, now you have 23 grand jurors, and they'll decide if there should be a manslaughter indictment or a different indictment or no indictment. no reason this couldn't have gotten to a grand jury sooner. they sit every day of the week. within two to three days they had all the evidence with the exception perhaps of the autopsy results. they had all the 911 calls, the canvassing of the area, had the clothing. they had literally all the evidence except for autopsy. in this case, the autopsy's not that important for this particular reason. we know who the shooter is. the only issue that could have come up and that was from the clothes is how close the gunshot was. but i don't believe the autopsy is that important in this case because you know who did the shooting and how the kid died. >> i absolutely agree with you relative to this, but here's the concern. the concern is that, in fact, as you're now looking to where are

you going to find an impartial jury to try this case? what has been injected into this case is issues of race, this whole discussion about whether he's white or a white hispanic. all of those things are inflaming the passes at this point in time. and so when you ask people what justice would look like if trayvon was to get justice, what they have started saying is is he would be arrested. but here's the we. are they going to be satisfied if zimmerman is, in fact, arrested, if he is arrested and then not indicted, is that going to cause a problem? i think what you've got here is too much political pressure. i think people need to back off, let the authorities do their job in this particular case, and come to a conclusion. that's what needs to happen here. >> may i ask both of you about the report in the "orlando sentinel" about these two voice recognition experts we've been talking about this morning? >> yes. >> the new news of the day now. would their analysis be able to be presented in a court of law? does it have the kind of

admissible evidence, if you will, to do that? >> it could. the answer is there are -- you can get a voice exemplar and there are experts that might be able to determine whether it's his voice or not. again, it's the science. how much do you really hear on the 911 tape? >> yeah. >> also, when we say at one point people are taking a bone of context with, you know, saying that it's not the voice of george zimmerman is one thing. but then not saying perfectly 100% sure that it's trayvon martin is another. however, hasn't george zimmerman also said it's just the two of us, so logic conclusion, can you in a court of law jump from one point to say we done know for sure it's trayvon's according to technical, scientific information, but, duh, it is? >> the thing is the people who did the test couldn't get a hold of trayvon's voice. perhaps his friend or girlfriend or relative has a voice they can use, but these experts didn't have access to that. >> thus raising the question as to whether it is, in fact,

admissible at all. the lawyers are going to argue as to whether or not it is admissible given the number -- >> the defense attorneys. >> yes. the defense attorneys are going to argue about that. the prosecution may argue about that. we don't know how this is going to be presented. but they're going to be a number of logical leaps as you've indicated here, and i think perhaps those logical leaps may actually be more prejudicial than probative. that raises a whole other question relative to that. so that's a major concern here. >> it is a major concern. and, boy, this is a very interesting development today, i have to say. gentlemen, thank you is so much. >> absolutely. >> now number three on our first five web stories. a new jersey teenager with leukemia had to give up a dream date with taylor swift. earlier this year, 18-year-old kevin mcguire created a facebook page asking swift to the prom. she couldn't make it but ib vited him to tonight's academy of country music awards in las vegas. after an intense round of chemotherapy, kevin came down with a fever and is hospitalized in philadelphia.

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doug, we begin with you because there are three possible outcomes for this case -- the law is completely overturned, only the individual mandate is overturned or the law gets upheld in its entirety. purely in terms of president obama's re-election campaign, can the democrats spin all of those possibilities in their favor? >> i think so. i think if the court strikes this down or takes away the individual mandate, which is critical to providing health care to everybody and all the benefits that people now enjoy, i think if that's taken away, it doesn't hurt the democrats politically. it will fire people up. here's the issue before the court. we have a health care system that's the great nest the world. for it to be available to everybody, everybody who can afford it has to help support it. the question before the court is whether we're going to let some people free load off it, people who can afford to pay but just don't want to, and to let them get away with that, we're going to have to take away the coverage for our children, we're going to have to allow insurance companies to deny care for those of us who have paid for insurance and might need it but not get it because of a

pre-existing condition. that's the choice being discussed here. i think the democrats actually need to do a better job making that choice very clear to people because if the court takes away these benefits for those of us who buy our health insurance, we're not going to be very happy about that and i think reasonable voters can understand that. >> congressman, what about from the gop perspective? can republicans spin those three scenarios to their snaifr. >> they'll try. both sides have their talking points and no matter what happens, i think what you have to remember is this is an unpopular bill to begin with by about a 10% margin, voters have felt they don't favor this bill. so striking it down may, in fact, help the administration fire up their base. but it adds to the republican narrative on the other hand. this was governmental overreach by the administration. so you'll have these competing points. doug makes an interesting point and that is the loser sometimes gets more fired up. so whichever side ends up losing

the case, their base gets a little more fired up. on the republican side, we have to repeal it on the democratic side. what's your answer, we have to re-enact something similar. >> congressman, the individual mandate is at the heart of this case. however, it was actually the conservative heritage foundation that came up with the concept. they began distancing themselves from it back in the 1990s when it started appearing in democratic reform plans. was there a change of heart or did the democrats taint the idea simply by touching it? >> well, i think it's a little of both. at the end of the day, the difficulty with this bill was it was passed with just democratic votes of both houses. republicans really weren't about the table. and so i think there has been the reaction that you would get that the democrats own this bill. so all parts of the bill, even though a lot of these weren't republican ideas, i think have been castigated. but there are a lot of ideas that came from a lot of different places right and left that went into it originally. now you're in the spin zone and now the bill is unpopular.

>> doug, what happens to the health care debate overall? if we have a general election between president obama and mitt romney, two candidates whose names are synonymous with reforms? >> that's a good question. honestly, i think mitt romney just wants this issue to go away because the more it's talked about, the more it sort of highlights his etch a sketch mentality where he was for universal health care when he was governor of massachusetts and against it when he wanted to run for the republican nomination for president. it will be a healthy debate, actually. i'm sort of disappointed. the congressman's good point is that the democrats actually had what i think most people would support if the message were sharper on it and people saw really what was at stake here. this isn't about freedom. it's about free holding and whether we're going to let a few people who are going to use this health care system, everybody uses the health care system, we're going to get a few people who can't afford to pay but just don't want to, not have to. in order for that to happen, take away coverage from our

kids, let people with p pre-existing conditions be denied medical care nap's outrageous. this debate needs to happen so people have a bert idea of what's going on and i don't think mitt romney wants to have that conversation. >> can i ask both of you how much you think, regardless of how this turns out in june, how much you think this health care debate will be a topic come november? >> well, this is a very unpopular bill. doug can spin it any way he wants. what you have to remember is most people were happy with their health care coming into this and now it's turned upside down. a lot of analysts think at the end of the day the costs are going to be huge and add to the budget deficit as companies and whole industries opt out of the -- of their current health care to go into the government plan. this bill was put together with two ideas, one, to get a low cbo score in the senate and secondly to get enough votes to pass the senate. it was never intended to be law, but when the democrats lost their 60th vote, they had to go

with this bill. usually you fix these bills in conference and make them connect. already three major parts of this bill have been undone by the congress, and i think there's going to be more to come. but the difficulty here is you can't get the parties together to fix it. the framework i think we could talk about a similar framework, but it's been difficult because the democrats have taken ownership and republicans are willing to give it to them at this time. >> doug, last word for you. >> i disagree. i think people do like the fact their kids can get health insurance through age 26, that they can't be denied care for their -- for pre-existing conditions. the bill might have been unpopular, but those benefits are very popular. >> all right. former -- >> the benefits are popular but paying for it is not, and that's just coming in. >> democratic strategist doug hataway and john, thank you so much. a shorter trading week on wall street this week with the good friday holiday. markets kick off a new month

tomorrow. we'll see if the march unemployment report has the expected 200,000 jobs added last month. jobless rate is expected to stay at 8.3%. and the government will release detail from the 1940 census detailing what life was like for americans living through the great depression. the skyrocketing cost of a college education. on this day back in 1997, "nbc nightly news" did an in depth look at the cost of educating the class of 2001. a tease for the report caught our attention. in a few seconds, you'll see some stunning numbers. >> also tonight, nbc news "in depth" class of 2001, a special series on the very high cost of higher education in this country. >> when you get right down to it, i can't think of anything that i'd rather spend that kind of money on. >> is sending your kids to college worth the price? an in-depth look coming up.

>> you saw that, right? for the 1986 to 1987 school year, $1,300 for public, ivy league school, $12,000. ten years later in 1996, public schools cost that. and 15 years after that report, the average tuition at a public school costs $8,600 and the average ivy league costs about $39,000. kansas and kentucky monday on the ncaa final. millions will be locked in to the game to see who's number one. for one fan in salt lake city, the roar of the crowd summons the long ago. >> reporter: today's march madness, very much like it was seven decades ago. >> steals it away.

that little fella is all over the court. >> when he played for the utah utes, a cinderella team if there ever was one. >> utah wins! >> whenever i started, just because of that half step that i could gain on my defender. >> his energy and boundless enthusiasm on the court stood out because nobody else played that way. >> his yutsz weutes were one of first national champs. then it came time to leave the country of the utes home court. the knicks were calling. masaka was the knicks' first draft pick in the first-ever nba draft. in the '40s, the press fell in love with him, calling him little wat and kilo-wat for speed. he grew up in utah's skid row. his japanese mother raised him alone. world war ii left the u.s.-born masaka feeling out of place in

his own country. ex-ute teammate arnie ferin helped him through it. >> we stayed at my house and we all felt like he was just one of us. >> they became life-long friends, attending reunions, getting profiled in magazines, and at times even shooting hoops. >> i've really been blessed, you know, people like arnie have been friends and not just for the time but forever, you know. >> masaka's name is on a team plaque at madison square garden, and the knicks honored him at a 2009 halftime ceremony. and as president obama noted in honoring masaka years later, he was -- >> the first nonwhite player in the nba. >> who became an nba hall of famer. all moments six decades after retiring that left masaka thinking he did okay. and now wanting the same for another rising knicks star, jeremy lin. he told him so in a letter. >> he doesn't know me, but

maybe, you know, just tell him to hang in there. >> reporter: something masaka did since his first shot. richard liu, nbc news. now today's list of numbers ones. what state has the best average credit score? despite all the problems with housing in california, the golden state has the best score at 754, just 18 points above the national average of 736. oregon along with wisconsin, hawaii, and connecticut round out the top five. how about the most religious state? that is mississippi. 59% of residents consider themselves very religious. the least religious, vermont and new hampshire where only 23% say they're very religious. >> no one is safe from the slime! >> actress halle berry was the first celebrity to be slimed at nickelodeon's kids' choice awards. as host will smith promised, it was the slimiest awards show yet, but the best was saved for

last. who is it? it's you! oh, my gosh. a slime fest there. of course that was justin bieber. the target of the secret celebrity sliming. first lady michelle obama and daughter malia were there. they loved it, while trying to avoid getting stronger. and kelly clarkson's "stronger" remains the best top song in america. those are your number ones on "weekends with alex witt." play it, christian. water, we take our showers with it. we make our coffee with it. but we rarely tap its true potential and just let it be itself. flowing freely into clean lakes, clear streams and along more fresh water coast line than any other state in the country. come realize water's true potential. dive in-to the waters of pure michigan.

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or your money back. battle speech right? may i? capital one is issuing a venture double miles challenge. show us how much you spent last year and we'll give you 2 miles for every dollar spent on your travel reward card. up to 100,000 miles! hawaii, here we come. claim your miles at capitalone.com today! what's in your wallet? can you play games on that? not on the runway. no. the people who bought the three winning tickets for the mega-millions jackpot beat odds against them of more than 175 million to 1 and millions others were buying tickets hoping to beat the odds. joining me from orlando, florida, is the author of "learn how to increase your chances of winning the lottery," richard lustig, who is a seven-time

lottery winner. as i welcome you, we should say you're definitely the man to write this because you've won seven time, one of which garnered you over $800,000. let's get right to this. i want to know your rules. the first one being play within your means. that sounds like good advice. >> absolutely. in fact, this whole week with the whole thing about the jackpot for mega-millions i've been getting the message across to people that, you know, there are only going maybe one, two, or three winners, as we found out, there are three. and millions of people won't win. i've been telling people, yes, buy ticket, absolutely, of course, but don't spend more than you can afford because as i said all week long, saturday morning, a lot of people woke up that were not winners and now they're saying, oh, my god, how do i replace all that money i spent. >> very good point. you always say to play the same numbers. always play the same ones. why? >> because when you play quick picks -- and people have won with quick picks, in fact, i think one of our winners for friday night --

>> in maryland. one ticket. >> yes. and, yes, that can happen. but do you want to go through life hoping you get lucky or do you want to go life with a plan, a method that's going to give you a better chance at it? with my method, i teach people to increase their chances of winning by following my method. you can increase your chances. >> okay. i'm going to say, you say never play quick picks and of course one of the really incredible points of this is that the maryland winner bought one ticket, about 7:15, 7:20 p.m., a few hours before it closed, and we talk about there. but a lottery pool. do you like those? does that improve your chances? >> absolutely it does. let's say the prize is $10 million and you buy $10 in tickets and you get ten chances to win. if you get a pool of ten people, you each get ten, you have 100 tickets, 100 chances to win. yes, you split it up among ten people, but how many people wouldn't be thrilled to win just a million dollars instead of $10 million in that example? of course. >> making all good points,

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the trayvon martin tragedy is getting worldwide attention from protests in london to the florida city where the shooting happened. and the story could make history. joining me now is presidential historian doug brinkley and msnbc political analyst reverend eugene rivers. i'm glad you're both here. >> good morning. >> good morning, alex. >> douglas, i will speak with you first. we can't see how this will be viewed in history, but we certainly have moments in history that even this early we can look at for comparison. right?

>> well, certainly. i mean, the civil rights movement after the brown versus topeka decision in 1954 was triggered in many ways by the murder of emmett till in mississippi. the young boy, emmett till, had his eyes gouged out and was strangled, had a cotton gin tied to his neck and he was thrown into the tallahatchie river. it was his mother who kept an open coffin and said look what they do in the jim crow south, they killed a little boy, my son, emmett till, and it galvanized rosa parks. without that, row is is a parks wouldn't have had her moment of dissent on december 1, 1955, and the same with medgar evers of the naacp in mississippi. edgars simply wanted african-americans to have the right to vote. he was a marine. he was gunned down in his own driveway by a bigot in the south. and medgar evers helped spur what became the historic civil rights and voting rights acts of '64 and '65. examples are legion. the fact that president obama weighed in on the trayvon martin

case, gives it automatically a kind of historic stamp that people are not going to forget this. folksongs will be written and paintings will be painted. this is a historic moment. >> reverend rivers, your reaction to that. >> i think that we have an enormous american tragedy that has affected us all. i think that -- i'm not sure. emmett till, row is is a parks, medgar evers, the social and political context of black america was very different. one of the back stories that will come out in the next few weeks revolves around some of the question the black community has to ask itself, which also have a national and international implications. i would like to put this question to the professor. what if zimmerman were black? how might this narrative have

been dramatically different? because the reality is that no one's talking about nationally is that the overwhelming majority of young black men that are murdered in black america are not murdered by whites, white hispanics or anybody white generally. they're murdered by black people. and so the challenge that ultimately black leadership in this country must confront, we must demand justice for trayvon martin. this was a crime. it appears to be a racist crime, a racist assault, but the deeper issue that affects black america has to do with how we get the black community to deal with the issue of black death when the young black males die overwhelmingly at the hands of other young black males. and that's the issue that black leadership -- go ahead. i'm sorry. >> this is something i'd like for you to respond to quickly, but i will say last weekend we were speaking with philadelphia mayor michael nutter, who was having a meeting that very weekend with cities united, and it was a group addressing this

exact same issue that you bring up. but, doug, how does that change the picture? >> well, look, this is an ongoing story here. all i'm suggesting is that this now has large implications. i agree completely with the reverend, and it opens -- just like hurricane katrina -- opened up all sorts of issues about race and caste in america. today isabelle wilkerson has a marvelous piece, and i recommend everybody to read it in "the times" today about central florida and the difficulties with hispanic, african-americans, caste systems in general america, which we don't think we have, everything the reverend was just mentioning. but this is a serious story and one people are following. we can always say what about this case and that case and this case? people have carried about this. for ten days this was a florida story. cbs this morning started carrying it. people started really doing it. and at least for the last ten days this has been a media story. everybody in america is blogging

about it, talking about, thinking about. it's an opportunity to look at things and in my view go after the silly raw laue in florida of stand your ground which offers too much vigilanteism to stay. it will be an effort to throw that law out in florida just like in the civil rights movement people were trying to throw out jim crow laws. >> at what point, gentlemen, can we effectively talk act a postracial society, beyond racial profilings stated by naacp ceo ben jealous, how many other less obvious hurdles are there out there? reverend, i'll let you go first. >> look, when barack obama was elected, and thank god for that, we were not an opposed racial america. it wasn't campaign rhetoric, but it wasn't real. we will not for the foreseeable future be in a postracial america. there's some kind of liberal rhetorical flourishes that make

us feel good but they don't match the empirical reality that we are a racially stratified society with black on the bottom and white on the top, and as long as that's the case, we are now in a post postracial society. >> doug? >> well, how can you disagree with that? you know, racism is the original curse in the united states when you deal with history. you have to deal with it all the time. just because barack obama was elected doesn't mean racism disappears. all i'm suggesting in addition to that is that this has a lot of questions about, you know, the federal -- we fought for a lot of federal laws, but when you have states like florida putting on the books in recent years something like this where now private communities can tell people to go around with guns and shoot people we think that are suspicious because they're only candy in their hand, it's a very slippery slope. i think we've got to focus on getting rid of this law in the state of florida right now and also -- >> absolutely psh. >> -- it is historic because reverend al sharpton and jesse

jackson have brought people together. this has become an international event. as i said, it's not going to be forgotten. hopefully there thereby an arrest of mr. zimmerman and a trial. i'm not convicting anybody. we don't have all the information yet. but part of popular culture, something americans care about, this is the story of 2012 that broke through the -- who's going to be the republican nominee story. this was the big story so far. >> gentlemen, we are well past the top of the hour, which means i should be starting another hour, but i wanted to very much get your thoughts. doug brinkley, eugene rivers, thank you. >> good morning. >> take care. >> we'll hear from one of the voice recognition experts quoted in the orlan"orlando sentinel." [ man ] i loved my first car... sometimes the door gets stuck... oh sure. ooh! [ man ] ...and then, i didn't. um... [ sighs ] [ man ] so, i got a car i can love a really, really long time.

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case. an orlando paper spoke to two audio expert who is say the screams heard on the 911 tapes from the night of the shooting are not from george zimmerman. take a listen. absolutely chilling. joining me now is tom owen, one of the voice identification experts quoted in the "orlando sentinel" report. he analyzed that 911 tape. tom, thank you for joining me on the phone. let me ask you, what did your tests conclude? >> alex, the tests concluded that it's mott the voice of mr. zimmerman.

>> when you say that, tom, tell me how you came to that conclusion and if p you can give a percentage of certainty, i would love to hear that. >> well, e came to that conclusion first by listening and secondly by using a program called ez voice biometrics, which is a biometric program very similar to what the nsa and cia and fbi use for following terrorists through their voice and so forth. and it's -- it's not brand-new technology, but it's recently become available and quite common place because of 9/11 and so forth. every country in the world is utilizing this technology to follow terrorists and drug cartels and to forth. >> so, tom, if every country is using this, is this the kind of summary evidence that could be admissible in court? >> yes. i just recently testified in a murder trial in connecticut

state versus dobman where it was a 911 call and i was able to identify her voice as the person making the 911 call. >> okay. tom, are you able to conclude that it is the voice of trayvon martin if not by your technical analysis, because george zimmerman has said there were two people present at the incident, himself and trayvon martin? >> well, i have nothing to compare to trayvon martin. george zimmerman identified himself on a 911 call. in that respect, there's no question about who made the george zimmerman 911 call. as far as whether or not it's trayvon martin, i can't say one way or the other. i don't have anything to compare it to. >> how about the accuracy of your tests? how successful have you been in reaching these conclusions that then don't get challenged? >> well, the software itself, you know, is extremely accurate. i've run it against 300 voices, testing 300 voices, and it was

better than 99% in all cases. and there has to be a minimum criteria in terms of the quality of the audio. the zimmerman call has a signal to noise ratio of 26 db, which is very high in our world, in the forensic audio world. >> which means what, tom, that it is very accurate? >> it's very clear. >> very clear. >> it's very clear. unlike a lot of 911 calls. they're not so clear. >> tom, were you asked to perform these tests? >> yes. jeff wiener at the "orlando sentinel" asked me about the science generally, because i've been doing it for 30 years. and then i let him know that possibly he may want to look at the biometric side of it and so forth. and he asked me if i would do that, and i agree dodd that. that's what you hear on the newspaper's website. i've prepared special tapes, and

you can go down those tapes if you wish. >> tom, are you ever contacted by police departments? did the sanford police department contact you? >> no. not that i'm aware of. >> they have not contacted you. would it be unusual for a police department to contact someone with your area of expertise and have them analyze 911 tapes like that in conducting their investigation? >> no. i did the case in connecticut for a police department, for the prosecutor's office. >> okay. i'm curious if this is a large group of people that conduct these types of specific inquiries. i mean, have you heard of anybody in your field being approached by the sanford police department, asked to conduct vice identification analysis? >> no, not to my knowledge. >> are there a lot of people who do this? i mean, would you be the guy in the area to do this? >> well, let's say i have the most longevity in this field. it's a very long process.

it's a two-year mentoring program, and you have to do hundreds of cases and test both, you know, written tests and practical test and so forth. there's not many voice identification examiners certified in the world. >> tom, start to finish from getting access to the 911 tapes to coming to the conclusion, how long did that take? >> couple days. >> couple days of, what, you working full-time on this or do you have to -- >> pretty much so. >> so hours. how long did you listen to these tapes and go through the analysis? >> it took me about four hours to prepare the tapes so that they could be used in the program, and of course i was listening to them at the time i was doing that. and, i don't know, i would say probably 10 or 15 hours total. >> and that would be typical for a tape with this sort of length of time that you're able to analyze? >> yes. >> okay. tom owen, i want to thank you

very much for speaking with us, particularly since this is one of the most important things to come out of this case certainly in the last 24 hours if not prior to that. tom, thank you. >> thanks, alex. >> trayvon's hometown of miami is having a protest today. here's a live look at bay front park where organizers expect thousands of people this afternoon, including trayvon's parents hand local lawmakers. events are also planned in new york city, chicago, and minneapolis. let's go now to front-page politics. mitt romney and rick santorum campaigning in wisconsin today just two days ahead of the gop primary there. with recent polls showing romney in the lead, santorum is urging republicans to not count him out. >> you look at the -- >> thank you all for being here and for -- >> versus goliath. i mean, this is a herculean task we're involved in and it's going well. >> vice president joe biden appeared on another sunday talk show and said selection will come down to one thing. >> this is about the middle

class and what affects middle class people. their jobs, being able to own a home, being able to live in a safe neighborhood, being able to send their kid to college. it's about their dignity, about their sense of themselves. >> mitt romney hitting a campaign stop in wisconsin this weekend. romney, who was joined by congressman paul ryan, spent much of his time criticizing the policies of president obama. >> he's out of ideas, out of excuses and frankly in 2012 it's our job to make sure he's out of office. >> joining me now, national political reporter for politico david cantonese and msnbc contributor harry bacon jr. good to see you both. >> hello. >> david, let's take a listen to what rick santorum is saying about his chances in wisconsin on tuesday. here it is. >> we feel very, very comfortable that, you know, we're going to do very, very well here in wisconsin and we've done exceptional. we're being outpent 4 or 5 to 1,

not as bad as ohio and illinois, but still, the fact that we're hanging in there in spite of the barrage of money, the barrage of the insiders and washington folks saying this race is over, this race is over, i think it's amazing, frankly. >> the polls show romney is leading wisconsin but santorum not backing down an inch there. where does he fit right now in this campaign and how is the gop going to view him when all is said and done? >> it should be noted in a prior interview he said it would be very tough for him to win wisconsin. then he sort of walked that comment back. the problem santorum has is he keeps moving the goal posts. now his campaign is talking about may, more favorable contests there, his home state of pennsylvania, other states like north carolina, texas, where he thinks he can do well. but the problem is in these big midwest state, which is part of his argument against romney, that he can do well, the industrial midwest, he's lost. he didn't win in michigan. he didn't win in illinois. here's another big state of

wisconsin. he fell just short in ohio and looks like he's going to fall short in wisconsin. that's why i think you start to see the party, even begrudgingly in some cases rallying around rom mee. >> vice president biden, he's sharpening his attacks on mitt romney. let's listen to this. >> i think governor romney is a little out of touch. look, you know, everything he says the american people don't think the policies have worked. romney argued about, not exact quote but let detroit go bankrupt, wasn't very popular action the president took. now they're hiring people, you know, hundreds of thousands of new people instead of losing 400,000 jobs. >> so perry, if romney becomes the nominee, what do you think the main arguments will be from both sides? >> the republicans are going to make the same cases they've been making for a long time, essentially the economy has not done well under president obama, they'll attack the health care bill a lot, the government being too big, that kind of thing. you heard vice president biden talking about what the democrats will say in response, they'll

try to cast romney as a flip-flopper based on issues including health care, and two, someone who's out of touch with the middle class, someone who wants to repeal the health care, give lots of people health insurance and that sort of thing. that's the key of what you're seeing. you're seeing santorum running for president but mitt romney is not talking act him, talking only about obama right now, and vice president biden is pretty much ignoring santorum. everyone is pretty much ignoring him as if the race is over anyway. >> david, we're getting a clear picture of the toll this extended gop primary battle is taking. if you look at the latest poll, it has romney's unfavorables up to 50%. what does he need do? >> he needs to not be taking fire by santorum and, you know, to a lesser extent gingrich every day saying he's a flip-flopper, the worst candidate to run under, you know, the umbrage of obama care and trying to challenge that law.

but, again, this race is going to shift. it will reset at some point. it is april now. but, you know, that's why republican leaders think that he can be the presumptive nominee by the end of this month, even if p he doesn't have those delegates. but it does take a toll when you still have republicans and surrogates, you know, throwing arrows at romney and his credibility. and that's, you know, easy fodder for the democrats to point to over and over. the question is when does this really wrap up and does gingrich or santorum really carry the torch all the way to the convention. i doubt that ends up happening, but that's why you see the leaders trying to move this process along saying we really need to shift the focus onto the president. >> perry, when you look at where we are in this stage of the political game, how much damage has been done? and when david suggests things will get reset, certainly it always is reset when you have just the two candidates going against each other, but in terms of the gop backing mitt romney,

if he is the nominee, how concerned are you that he won't get that passion and that fervor because of this protracted primary? >> what the polls generally show, and i think the republicans are right about saying this, it's not mitt romney but barack obama, the negative view among republicans of the president will probably unify them. what the polls have been showing the last few days is the drum beat of comments by romney, the out of touchness at times, talking about the middle class, hurting him with independents, and those voters will decide the election. the campaign always resets. romney will have an entire convention and several months to sort of tell voters who he is, but he's said a lot of thing, cadillac comment from his wife, a lot of things they've done that make them seem out of touch that will be remembered by voters in november. >> good to see you guys. thank you. america is waiting on an answer from the supreme court. how will the justices rule on health care reform and what happens if they strike it down? . we need the jobs.

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if there's one thing we can all agree on amid the health care reform debate, americans are paying far too much for medical care. the latest report finds that americans are spending 17.4% of the nation's gdp on health care alone. so does the fate of your checkbook lie in the hands of the supreme court or are bigger issues at play? joining me is maggie fox, managing editor for technology and health care at "national journal." good day. >> good day. >> you wrote on thursday no matter what happens in the supreme court, health care costs are bound to rise. so what is to blame for that and what can we do to turn that around? >> there are a lot of factors to blame here. americans pay way more for health care than people in any other country. part of it is the cost.

we pay more for doctor visits, more for diagnostic procedures, we even pay more for our drugs. the drug companies make it clear that they need americans to pay more for our drugs and vaccines so they can sell them more cheaply in developing countries. >> maggie, can i ask you, do we get bert -- people say you pay for what you get for. do we pay more because we get bert care? do we pay more because we have bert access to pharmaceuticals? >> sometimes that's true. americans like to argue that we do get what we pay for. we do have superior cancer care. but there have been a lot of studies that compare our health care outcomes to those in other countries where the per capita cost is lower. and guess what, we come out last. we don't do as well in preventing heart disease. we're more obese, and we live shorter lives. >> how about the individual man dey, which as you well know is at the heart of the case here. if the court finds it unconstitutional, can the health care law still be effective in expanding coverage and

protecting patients? >> there's a little bit of disagreement about, that but there was a recent rand corporation study that said it wouldn't do too much damage to cut the mandate out. americans are going to buy health care anyway. they're going to look for health insurance. it's still a perk most people get through their employers. >> let's imagine for a moment that the court strikes down the whole law. first, what does that mean in the immediate term for americans? secondly, do we go back to square one or do the republicans have a plan with which to replace it? >> the republicans do not have a plan to replace it with. and nobody is going to do anything until the election. we're going to have a big, fat nothing until the election if the supreme court strikes the health care law down. nobody's getting ready for this. hhs isn't getting ready, congress isn't getting ready, and the white house isn't getting ready. the republicans don't have a backup plan, so, yes, americans will be back to square one. >> if you look at the latest poll numbers, maggie, for the health care law, it shows a strong majority of americans are against it.

you see 47% versus 36%. how much does that factor into the case being brought to the courts in the first place or was it pure lu a constitutional issue? >> no. i mean, the republicans saw that they had something they could run with. the governors of the various states saw something they could do something with. most of the plan actually is a republican plan to start with. the individual mandate was cooked up at the heritage foundation, which is a very conservative organization. it was seen as a political ploy. now, if you break down those numbers on americans who disapprove of the health care law, that includes about 10% who don't think it goes far enough. the breakdown also fends on how you ask the question. >> yeah. as is always the case with polling, so thank you for pointing that out. maggie fox, thank you. >> my pleasure. in just a moment, why a recut version of the new documentary "bully" may be produced. spring only shows up once a year.

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that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ today protesters will be calling for justice in the trayvon martin shooting with a rally in miami. meanwhile, for the latest on how this case is progressing in the legal system, alexis, good day to you. thanks for being here. >> thank you. >> talk act the difference between a murder charge and a charge of manslaughter. it's my understanding that the police officer who was on the scene the night of the shooting, his first comments when he was reporting back to the police department were that this was a manslaughter case. >> yes. it's also been reported that tracy martin, trayvon's father, is seeking a murder charge for his son's death. the thing with murder is it has to be established that the

killer had the intent of killing, it was premeditated. that's unlikely. this recent weeks people have been pushing for some kind of charge. but if they keep trying to push for murder it could take quite some time to establish that. there is enough evidence to establish manslaughter, which is much more likely. >> so, alexis, you have been down there and were immediately down there immediately following the protests that erupted several weeks ago. your sense of a murder versus manslaughter charge, would that appease those that are seeking justice for trayvon? >> it may not completely appease those who are seeking justice, but i think that it would be accepted because it's more realistic given the evidence that is available. we only have the 911 tapes. we have limited forensic evidence to really establish that george zimmerman had the intent in his heart to kill trayvon in a premeditated sense. it's so difficult. if people continue to push beyond that, there may not be any charge at all. >> people talk about premeditated. i know people will go then to the 911 tapes where he is told

to not continue pursuing. they recommend he not continue pursuing trayvon martin, yet he does. i mean, sthast a very fine line. you know there will be those who thought there was some element of premeditation. >> there may have been premeditation in terps of his determination to use his firm arm or defend his community, but the thing about premeditation is it takes into account the intent in the perp's heart and what they did at the time of the confrontation. unfortunately, the only two people who were there were george zimmerman and trayvon mart martin. zimmerman is the only person who can speak to that moment and what occurred when the blast was fired. given that, it's almost impossible to establish what he was thinking. >> alexis, well done. thank you very much. >> thank you. new today, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell is calling on the gop to unite behind mitt romney. >> i think he's going to be an excellent candidate, and i think the chances are overwhelming that he will be our nominee. it seems to me we're in the final stages of wrapping up this

nomination, and most of the members of the senate republican conference are either supporting him or they have the view that i do, that it's time to turn our attention to the fall campaign and begin to make the case against the president of the united states. >> meanwhile, romney has picked up another endorsement today two days before wisconsin's gop primary. republican senator ron johnson of wisconsin says he is behind mitt romney. now to the best of office politics. from dan rather to john heilman, we go inside their offices and dig into their memories for a glimpse of their careers and more. >> you were taking a number-one "new york times" best-selling book and thinking they're going to make a game change movie and what if they mess it up? >> part of the reason we took the project to hbo in the first place is they had such a great reputation of doing historical docudramas that are true to history. >> with sarah palin. what is it like wading the

waders? >> once you see her in her element, there are so many sides of sarah palin. we see "game change" the movie and all the other sides of sarah palin, you've got to acknowledge that there is a really authentic alaska side of her. >> so sarah palin's reaction, was that to be expected? >> we wish she'd see is movie. >> you talk about something being as black as a crow's wing. >> that's the way i talk and the way people around me talk. you say it's hot. you'd say it's hot as a laredo marking lot. >> how proud are you of its success? it was huge. >> one of the largest african-american sites. we call it the multicultural bureau. >> look about this existence. >> talking about my bourgeois existence now? >> yes. >> number one, above my desk, been there since 1996, a picture of me and the great pat buchanan. st. patrick's day in chicago.

the key difference is, one, i have a lot more hair. >> you do. >> back then. at least some. two, pat has a driver's cap on and he's carrying a shillelagh. >> i'm most interested in this picture you have with president george w. bush. >> he actually opened a speech and said i was in the audience. and he and i don't agree on anything, but we both agree children should be able to read and write. >> the game change set, director's chair set up for us and on the back, the "game change" logo and on this side we have the john heilman thing. >> i collect art and warhol is probably my favorite artist. these are all warhol drawings of very kind of advertising or commercialized -- >> so visionary. >> you have some music legends there. you have michael jackson. janet. >> this is '79. i would go out on the road sometimes and meet james brown. he was like my father. that's me at 7 years old. a born preacher. i'm still a wanderer.

i'm not a boy anymore. >> i imagine you and your husband have pretty interesting conversations. you both have achieved such high plateaus in your respective careers. i've often said to people, you should know, i would love to be a fly on the wall at their dinner table, just listening. >> like who's going to wash the dishes? itis your turn? no, it's your turn. i did it last night. like every other couple. >> as i say to my children, home is all about that. >> tell me about andrea. >> she's been working at nbc sports for a long time now. >> do you guys get to intersecond much? >> maybe that's the key. >> that is, yeah. >> maybe that's the key -- >> to a good marriage. >> get a decent night's sleep and a decent practice. >> thank you for allowing me to clean up before you got here. >> not a clean office. we love harry, though. next weekend i'll bring you our conversation with "newsweek" and

daily beast editor in chief tina brown. the battle to rate the film "bully" is making headlines again. the acclaimed documentary which opened friday in limited release profiles a group of families whose children are abused by other kids. there's word the other film may be recut and that is raising concerns about its impact. joining me on set is cynthia lohan, the producer and writer of "bully." in philadelphia, katie butler, who launched an online petition to change its rating to pg-13. glad to have you here. thank you. cynthia, talk about the mpaa, which gave "bully" this r rating. it was released unrated on friday by the weinstein company. now you have these calls. why the change? is it merely because of the amount of profanity used? >> we are not planning to recut the film. we feel the language in this film accurately depict what is 13 million america kids are going through in school on their buses every year in this country. >> so is the "l.a. times" wrong? >> we are not intending to recut

the film. >> can it be done without your permission? >> no. the weinstein company would have to agree that that was what they intended to do, and at this point we have made the decision to release the film unrated because we feel like we have heard from almost half a million people on katie butler's bep/e tigs on change.org. we've been hearing from administrator, teachers, kids who say this is what we're experiencing, this is our reality, please don't gloss it over, please don't sensor it. we want the story to be heard. it is our story and get it out there. >> katie, you're hearing directly from the producer herself and the writer of the piece, "bully." tell me why you want to change this rating and raise the national consciousness about it this way. >> well, i think the rating definitely should be changed so that kids can see this movie because the middle school and high school koids are the target audience, because those are the kids who go through these things every day. and like she was saying, if the

language is removed and it is changed, it's taking away from a really powerful message that the movie has to offer. >> i understand you've seen this film five times. tell me what you have taken away from this. >> well, every time i see this movie, i cry because it is such a powerful message. and i can connect so personally to it, and i know so many other kids can, also. >> so, katy, you want the film changed but i ask you, cynthia, are kids able to see a film that has no rating? they can be taken with their parents as well. >> what katj saying is she wants them to consider the r rating and give it a pg-13 rating. in lieu of that, we will continue to have the film out there unrated. we've been getting an incredible amount of support from amc theaters who have made this film accessible to young people to come see it. they have a permission slip online. they're accepting written permission.

i think what we're depending on is for educators to look to guidance such as provided by change -- by commonsense media that's given this a pg-13 rating as is the same rating give on the "hunger games" and to really use their judgment in terms of bringing this into their communities and listening to so many of the voices from educators, from adults who think that this is something that is absolutely something that kids can handle. >> and we can appreciate that you, you are very close to this film, this is your baby so, to speak. but katy, you have gotten a fair amount of signatures in terms of thousands of people. you've got celebrities. we have ellen, meryl streep lending their support to you, as well. is there a way to re-edit this film for a pg-13 rating that you think would be accessible to everyone and then sort of supersedes what the film's producer and writer wants to do with it? >> well, i mean, i started my petition on change.org to change the rating from "bully" from r

to pg-13 exactly the way it is. i mean, this language in this film is the language that kids hear every day. it's the language that kids bully each other with and that they are bullied by. so if we go in and take out that language, it's taking away from the message. i mean, no one goes into a school and edits out or takes out that language that kids hear every day. >> you have to wonder, did you make this argument when you went to the mpaa? this is the kind of language kids hear every day, like it or not. >> exactly the argument we made. >> their reaction? >> we lost by one vote. we lost our appeal by one vote. i think that although there's been a lot of conversation about this, i think we still remain hopeful. you know, i think we still think that there are so many voices who continue to come to the table, so many organizations and partners who continue to support us. >> yeah. katy, do you know of anyone who snuck into the film, who's underage, any of your friends gotten in to see it? >> i mean, we had a screening in ann arbor where i live for my friends, and we all went to see it.

and, i mean, they all loved it. they thought it was wonderful. >> yeah. okay. we hear wonderful things about this film. we want to thank you for your efforts and you as well. thank you for getting this out there. so important. i'm a mom. i have a couple kids. we've lived through all this. thank you. next week, the big three. how president obama could benefit if the supreme court rejects the health care law. we always hear about jobs leaving america.

here's a chance to create jobs in america.

oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now. the big three, winning the lottery edition, today's topics, winning ticket, winning choice, and winning message. and my panel today, politics staff writer for roll call, msnbc contributor and democratic strategist crystal ball, and republican strategist who served in president george h.w. bush's administration, joe watkins. hi, everyone. >> hi. >> schirra, winning the -- let's go to the winning choice.

the supreme court could rule one of three ways concerning president obama's affordable care act. let's look at the possible rulings. scenario one, the court strikes down the mandate but leaves the rest of the law intact. scenario two, the court strikes down the entire law. scenario three, the court upholds the law in its current form. scenario one with you, strikes down the mandate, leaves t rest of the law intact. who wins, schirra? >> i think initially house republicans and senate republicans and the republican nominee, probably mitt romney, will win. they will celebrate, say this is unconstitutional. but this is really a loser in the long run for a lot of reasons, because many parts of the law are unworkable if you strike down the mandate. and congressional members of congress particularly will lose out in this sense because they will have to go back to the drawing board and figure out how to figure out the finances of this law. so i think a loser in the long run. >> okay. crystal, to scenario two with you, striking down the entire law. what would that mean for democrats? a major win for republicans?

>> i think it's complicated. some people have been arguing this would be perversely good for democrats because it would put the onus on republicans to have a solution. they wouldn't just rail against obama care. there is something to the idea you don't know what you've got till it's gone. i think people would start realizing some of the things they would be getting once the law went into effect. i also think this would be a major loss for democrats and assuming that mitt romney is the nomin nominee, which looks likely, it would give him a clear distinction between his health care law in massachusetts and obama care being that his is constitutional and obama care isn't. >> okay. to scenario three here, the court upholding its law in the current form. what kind of card would that deal the republicans? >> it's not so much republican bus what it does to americans. we want to make sure that everybody has a chance to get health care coverage, but it's how you do it that really

matters. we just don't think it has a sense to have a mandate. all those poor people can't afford health care and are suddenly lu laue breakers is a bad thing. >> it came from the heritage foundation. what's your alternative? that's the question. >> we talk act health savings account, of course, giving people more choice in terms of how they do their health care, giving them a chance to save for health care as opposed to giving government more hand in health care. that's the difference between the democratic and the republican plan. >> one is american, that's the difference. the medicaid block grant to the states would add up to 20 million new people on the rolls of the uninsured. that's why this is complicated. if the health care law goes down -- >> it's complicated. >> -- it matters to the 50 million people in this country with no health insurance. >> it matters to them. we don't want them to become law breakers. >> oh, please. >> we don't. then we don't want to create more government to -- create new agencies -- >> then why did the heritage

foundation propose this in the '90s? why is it such a bad idea now when it was such a good idea then? >> it's a good idea now. >> it was supported until 2008. this is the conservative alternative. that's why republicans haven't come up with anything else because this was the conservative idea. >> we don't want to make americans lawbreakers. >> all right. >> i know we're being cut off here. >> i just am going to go now to you, schirra. if some of the nonliberal supreme court justices are seeking to avoid the appearance that they are voting along party lines and trying to be nonpolitical, that's in and of itself a political consideration so, they're essentially kind of in a no-win position. right? >> right. i think no matter what, the way this decision will come down, it will be perceived as political whether it's 5-4 or another variation of the nine it

will be a very political decision. people compare it to bush v. gore. will it be that political? maybe not. they go do 5-4 but they can explain the decision. in those words especially if john roberts is the one to author it, as many people suspect he will author the final opinion it's a chance to be less political depending on what he writes and how he writes it. >> okay. shira, crystal, joe, sit tight. up next what is the president's new message and will it win him re-election? [ laughing ]

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in 2008. >> president obama back in campaign mode. we are back with the big three winning the lottery edition. let's bring in shira, crystal and joe. the president hopes this will be a winning message. my question to you, does change take more than one term? >> yeah. change does take more than one term. i think people who thought everything would be perfect after one term of president obama were either naive or unrealistic. he's been doing a very good job of both connecting to core american values of shared sacrifice and we're all in this together and touting his record of accomplishment from his first term. health care reform has gotten complicated. i think americans are increasingly feeling better about the economy. that's a key piece. do they continue to feel things are moving in the right direction with the economy? >> could a republican bring change in one term? >> the hope is that any president could lead the country in the right direction and bring

about the change he or she promises would be had. i think it's exciting that america has elected an african-american to be president of the united states. so many of us are proud this happened but it's the policies that concern many of us. for people, even democrats who weren't working four years ago and had a lot of hope that things would change. for them to see the unemployment situation as bad as it is and that jobs aren't plentiful and the economy hasn't bounced back. for those people there is no hope and change. there may well be an enthusiasm gap with regard to how they vote this november. >> is this one of the pillars of the team obama message? that it takes more than one term. >> yes, and i think the other kind of change when you get coins consider a dollar will be another message. the economy is tops on voters' minds. it's still money, pocketbook issues that are important.

i don't know if he can make the argument that change takes time. voters are still paying a high price at the gas pump. >> let's get to this week's must reads. shira? >> on our website roll call.com two of my colleagues have a profile of one of the top aids to mitt romney and senator scott brown. this man can influence one of the most contentious senate races and the presidential election. big year for him. >> joe? >> there is a story in the wall street journal that talks about the importance of -- the meeting that the archbishop had with president obama and about the challenge that religious institutions face with the new hhs mandate. it's a must read. >> krystal? >> 70% of prostitution ads run on back page by village voice media. there is a brilliant column connecting sex trafficking and goldman sachs. >> that's a wrap. see you guys.

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