i'm chuck todd. all that out of the way. let's go to the first reads. team romney said any day they are talking about the economy was bad day for mitt romney. >> do you think the immigration law is the model for the nation? >> that's pretty much how the last 24 hours have gone for mitt romney. not wanting to repeat last week when the president's immigration announcement threw him off message for most of the week, the campaign tried the minimalist approach with this statement. i believe each state has the duty and the right to secure our borders and secure the rule of lie when the government failed to meet its responsibilities. nothing on the court itself. then romney landed in arizona of all places for a preplanned fund raiser. theiming was so awkward the campaign did something they haven't before. they put their traveling press secretary on camera who was

pushed again and again on whether romney supports the arizona law or what the court did. >> again, each state has the right within the constitution to craft their own immigration laws. >> story fair to say he has no take on the law? >> i will say it again and again and again for you. the governor understands the states have their own right to craft policies to secure their own borders and address immigration. >> there were six other versions of that question and he got the same answer. after that attempt, romney himself addressed the decision at a fund-raiser where no cameras were present. reluctantly saying he disagreed. y would have preferred to see them give more latitude and states have less authority and less lad tud to enforce

immigration law. they exposed a couple of things about the romney campaign that they mostly have been able to paper over. one, they are not the most nimble when it comes to responding to news of the day. two, romney may not be able to continue to get a with the strategy that depends on attacking the president on the issues without presenting a detailed response plan of his own. meanwhile in craft political term, the president couldn't have asked for a better ruling. in that 5-3 decision, the court struck down a provision that made it a state crime not to carry immigration papers and another made it a crime for an undocumented immigrant to apply for and hold a job. the police got the authority to arrest anyone without a warrant on suspicion of violating immigration laws, but the justices unanimously upheld the most controversial part of the law and the one that fires up the president's hispanic supporters the most, requiring police, making arrests or traffic stops to then check the

immigration status of anyone they suspect of being here illegally. the president said he was pleased with the ruling orange, but made a point of his concern about the part of the law that was upheld. no american should ever live under a cloud of suspicion just because of what they look like. there two ways to fire up the base. excitement and anger. excitement is not working well for obama so maybe anger well. it's worth noting that the ruling on the papers please part of the law was in effect a wait and see. the court warned arizona that if police used the law as an excuse for rounding up immigrants that, might cross the line of what's constitutional. here's arizona governor jane brewer reacting to the news on her own terms. >> the heart of senate bill 1070 is proven to be constitutional. this is a day that we have been waiting for.

and make no mistake. arizona is ready. we know that the eyes of the world will be upon us. >> one thing legal experts made clear is that the court provided arizona a road map on how to handle the law and may have provided a road map of how other states might try to pass their versions of the arizona law and the one part that was upheld constitutionally. this morning, the obama campaign is trying something new. they are rolling out state specific tv ads hitting the record at bain. they invested in companies that shipped jobs overseas. they are a response to the state by state that romney rolled out last week. here's that will rate romney when he arrives in virginia today. >> president romney's first days creating thousands of new jobs for virginians. >> does virginia want an outsourcener chief in the white

house? >> here's the ad in ohio. >> day one, president romney stands up to china. >> but romney has never stood up to china. all he has done is sent them our jobs. >> the 30s for iowa. expect vice president bide tone kickoff the swing through the hawk eye state and begins in waterloo. yesterday in new hampshire and a fund-raiser, the president stepped up the bain attacks. >> the advisers were asked about this and they tried to clear this up. by telling us there is a difference between outsourcing and offshoring. if your job went overseas, you don't need the difference between outsourcing and offshoring. you need somebody who is going to wake up every single day and fight for american jobs. >> by the way, speaking of state

by state ads, the new top ten list from the first read team on the top ten hottest markets. florida makes it into t top for the first time and north carolina drops out for the first time since we have been tracking this. finally elizabeth warren has as many detractors as supporters on the team, but has been an unquestionable asset as far as the campaign was concerned. last night at the obama fund-raiser, they were locked in the tight race with a republican. scott brown who ripped into mitt romney. >> mitt romney told us in his own words he believes corporations are people. no, mitt, corporations are not people. people have hearts. they have kids. they get jobs. they get sick. they love and they cry and they

dance. they live and they die. learn the difference. >> with a pru view of the key note address at the convention. that message went over well not surprisingly, but the president got a different reaction when he joked about the red sox's kevin youkilis who was traded this week to his beloved chicago white sox. >> thank you for youkilis. i'm just saying, he's going to have to change the color of his socks. i didn't think i would get any boos. i should not have brought up seball. i understand. my mistake. you got to know your crowd. >> actually he may not have read

the crowd correctly and may not have saying boo, but may have been saying yo uk. >> darrell issa sent a letter to president obama demanding justification for the executive privilege over documents related to the controversial program. one of a few big issues in congress this week. joining me now with more. kelly o'donnell, let's start with that. we have a date set now for the vote on contempt which i am guessing is going to be party line. >> that's what we expect. it will be thursday when there is nothing else big happening in town. we expect the ruling on health care that same day. >> wait a minute. let's stop there. the whole world knows what's coming out on thursday. this is the house leadership's

way of giving the base a bone and making sure the public doesn't see it? >> that's a fair interpretation on how it will play on a news cycle. you do get to air it out and have your moment, but at the same time there will be another event here across the way that will be getting everybody's attention. it will be interesting to see how it comes out and what really happens today is that chairman issa sent a letter to the president and makes a very pointed allegation saying that the claim of executive privilege either mean that is the senior white house advisers were involved in the operation fast and furious decision making or what happened after. it could mean something they haven'before disclosed. he is concerned about that because they said the white house had no knowledge of this. what's important here is that the justice department did give congress false information.

at first denying that a controversial tactic was used in the atf program done along the mexican border. they denied it at first and said actually that did happen. that's the focus of this contempt drama. they want to know what were the internal communications and who knew what when. what e-mails went between the white house. lots of political overtones. >> transportation bill, we know that the sentence will pass something, but is something going to be passed by the house and the senate that could be law? >> they are in really intense negotiations and still trying to work out what would be in the bill. it is one that is say high priority and normally passes fairly easily. three million construction jobs are in this and the is a house and senate over what should be in it like the keystone pipeline

and tack in key legislation to get that through. lots of stuff and a deadline looming. >> kelly o'donnell. up next, money in politics. the dig decision that no one is talking about today for opposite reasons. the high court opened the floor gates in montana and shut down hope that those who didn't like the citizens united case would see it revisits this quickly. plus, you know what we say here if it's tuesday, someone is voting somewhere. it's one of the races we have been following closely and it's a big that snuck up on all of us. new york changed the primary rules. it's coming up, but first a look at the president's schedule. he overnighted in boston. he went into rain-soaked florida. he went to raise money.

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>> court watchers swear there members that were uncomfortable with the members decision. there was no sign of that when all five who supported the ruling reaffirmed the decision by rejecting montana's attempt to limit special interest. an election law expert with the firm of a former fec commissioner. set it up for me. what is it that the supreme court ruled on when it comes to montana.

set the table. >> there is a 100-year-old law in montana that said we had our own experience with corruption when the copper companies owned the state. in that state there was a law that said corporations cannot use their own money to buy ads. as soon as citizens united was decided by the supreme court in groups and others and challenged the law, that's clearly at odds. corporations can still speak. they have people give money and not only that, it's different and perfectly consistent to uphold the montana law. the challengers asked them and you can take the case and reverse. that's what the supreme court did. >> they could have done three

things and taken the case and asked for arguments. >> sure. >> they could have refused the case and punted. >> that was the least likely and i will tell you why. when the court initially said we will take this case, they immediately put a hold on the montana. >> they no choice. >> that was a signal that they thought. even the liberals who hate citizens united said this montana decision is pretty much in our face here. >> michael, you are the election law expert. if look at this, does this mean it's states like maine and arizona and tried to put the finance restrictions on state elections in other ways, montana is another that has done this. does that mean the laws could be in trouble. if you are a lawyer advising the states that all could be in trouble because of the overarching issue? >> no question that states can have different approaches to campaign financing. some permit corporate

contributions like virginia and have no limits on the scale of corporate limit contributions and others are more regulatory in the federal system. that experimentation -- >> that is being allowed. >> that's still allowed. states can't experiment or have differences under the constitution. that was at issue here. the state was trying to argue because of the unique history, it can go further than the congress can go in restricting expenditures. >> the question is, were they trying to restrict corporate money only in state races and were they trying to create the line and say federal races are fine? in races, that's where they were trying to draw the line? >> they were trying to regulate corporate extendtures with state and local elections and not in montana, but under the citizens united ruling for the five

justices yesterday. they didn't see a legal distinction between montana and the federal statute. >> is it possible that the four centers on this, could they have forced saying no, we should hear the case? they say we hate citizens united and think ample evidence has come along and there is a corrupting influence when they give independent contributions and the court needs to look again at this. but the fact that there were five votes to say we are not interested in looking, as a technical matter on the supreme court, it takes four votes to grant. they could have said all right, we will take the case. they knew it would be a loser. we end up reaffirming.

>> all of the amateur battles who swear that justice kennedy and maybe even roberts, they are wringing their hands. thank you both for putting this a little bit into political english for us. europe's troubles are weighing down the dow again. shocker. we will get a preview and my friend is quick. reckoning day for oren hatch. will rebreak 70. today's question aside from judges who are a pointed for life, what government job has the longest term in office? we will have the first correct answer with a follow tuesday from it coming up on "the daily rundown." [ male announcer ] let's say you need to take care of legal matters.

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just $1,598. here are the stories i'm watching this morning. there is an election somewhere and we are closely watching two. in utah and new york. we have been talking about it for six months. six term republican senator oren hatch is fighting off the challenge from the tea party candidate and although it has been a tough race, he is expected to win and go on to victory? november. the race that snuck up on a lot of us was the with charlie rangle. the rangle race was facing a tough challenge in a newry redrawn district.

he might survive, but the out come is far from certain. they never had the primaries and will regular voters remember it's primary day and the fact that it could be an extremely low turn out. a good or bad thing for rangle. the convention is facing more problems with news that the party is cancelling the convention's kickoff event at the charlotte motor pete way and trying to grapple with a fund-raising shortfall and they had been shortened from four days to three, using the minute non-convention day for a point they are moving it to a smaller venue. they will hold more than 100,000. there is still pain in spain in italy and other parts of europe as moody's downgrades for spanish banks. minutes ago until the opening bell. cnbc's becky quick is here. becky, hasn't the market priced in european decline for months. at what point do they stop

pricing in deine? >> the $64 million question, chuck. i don't know how to answer it because every time we think we realize that things are bad and something is going to happen, something else happens like moody's downgrading the banks and the borrowing cost in spain skyrocketing. spain had to come to auction and try to sell more short-term bonds like three months and six months. they had to pay in some cases two times as much and other cases three times as much to borrow the money than they did a month ago. that says there is a lot of fear and panic out there. a few stones we have not overturned in terms of coming up with bad news. when you look at the downgrade, moody's is significant. they did not buy a lot of debt. we are running out of places to sell this and investors to come in. that has fear ratcheting back up again. >> when are we expecting the folks to come up with their

version of t.a.r.p.? isn't that this week? >> if you get that thursday or friday, you could see the markets move up and a big sigh of relief. angela merkel has not said we will come along with this. you will see a relief really. then we continue to kick the can down the road. nice to see you today. >> good to be back and glad to have you back too. i am getting in trouble. the number it is don't lie, but when it comes to poll numbers, the truth can get fuzzy. into whether the most famous name in polling is giving president obama a bad rap. that has been the charge among democrats. you are watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> our deep dive is the most famous name in polling giving the president a raw deal?

fairly or not, when gallup speaks, it can steer the conversation and have outside impact on the conventional wisdom of the presidential race. ever since gallup competed with the robo pollsters by launching the daily tracking poll, including myself, have raised serious concerns with the methodology. they say it has shown the president under performing compared to other polls. every poll, slight variations matter. even how you word a question and the question order. they posted a review of gallup polls of the president over the past year. what it found was that gallup found obama with a lower job approval rating than that of the other top organizations using similar methodologies. he averaged among the top six, 47%. the average with gallup polls, 44.4%. the pollsters said it's because they measure responses from

nonwhites differently than other polling organizations. the method of tweaking numbers to account for demographics and account for various groups that make up the country as a whole. here's how it works. say you are polling an area where men and women is split 50-50. 3/4 of your responses come from women on your dave calling. in calculating the results, you would boost the importance of the men's answers and reduce the women's answers to reflect the 50-50 split. they do it for a number of factors, but where we are concerned it's about race. according tote survey, it doesn't matchup with the latest census numbers from the government. for instance over three months, gallup's polling data was weighted to represent a population that is 11.3% african-american, short of the census figures that show the break down is 12.1%. the polls reflected hispanic population up 12.4%.

why is this significant? these are the types of voters that support the president in big numbers. gallup found in may he poled at 54% among hispanics which is low, but 90% among african-americans. taking any of the voters out of the mix can change to the perception of the race. right now i'm joined by the two men best equipped to discuss the topic. ed newport and mark bloomenthal, founder of pollster.com and the man behind that analysis that we did. frank, my friend, let me start with you. what do you say to the criticism and critique of your methodology? >> i'm glad you are talking about this. it's a complex cross. you need about an hour to explain it.

>> we use a special report. it's good that we're all looking at it. it is so complex that we think race is not the only variable involved. when we are rating polls, the most complex thing is cell phones and we plan to intrusion 400 up to every 1,000 based on cell phones. we have to wait age and education and gender. all of these are correlated with presidential views. political views as well as race. the "huffington post" seems to be monor focused on race, but for our methodologists and statusticians to adjust, we have to take into accou more than one number. actually they're based on over 100,000 interviews. for blacks and hispanics, you have to put it into the mix and avoid measurement era and designed effects. we can wait blacks up to be 30% of the population and our methodologists make the decision that whe we balance all the

factors out, we end up with what we think is a solid sample of the american public. >> okay. i understand that, but race he said is it sounds like it was too much of a factor. i have to say in these numbers, it seems to be the way that we polarize and saw the analysis and race is dividing on political lines in a way we have not seen for a long time. >> it is one of many factors that a pollster needs to adjust. this is a problem facing not just gallup, but all polls. the low response rates means that they have a harder time finding voters and americans in urban areas that means it's harder to find not only nonwhites, but younger and less well-educated. the way we weighed those is important to getting accurate results. race i think is the most important of those because as you showed, the biggest differences in political attitudes come when you slice

americans by racial and hispanic groups. >> when you look at the exit polls, it's a simple thing. you talk to the two campaigns and it's simple for them. if it's at one point 78% of your registered voter population as white which it hadn't been for a decade in some of your polling about a month ago with 76% i believe last time and expectation of 74 and 73, that can alter the numbers in a giant way. can it not? >> yeah, race is clearly an important factor. i don't think on average we have the white population that high. no question that race is an important factor. so are the other variables. age is highly related to the context as well. so is education and gender and so is having a cell phone only or land line. all of these are important factors. our statusticians and methodologists have been doing this for a long time and take

those into account and try to put our samples and give the best overall sample that we can come up with based on as i agree with what mark just said. when we bisqually do our introduce, we under represent certain groups and have to give that when we rate the data. >> do wish you were not daily tracking? >> the major contribution we are making here which i think is important is large sample sizes. it is based on 3,000 interviews with registered voters and we provide analysis based on 9,000 interviews based on three-week rolling average. we are able to give people a stable picture of what's happening with the race as opposed to other polls where we saw obama was ahead by 13 points. clearly an out liar and daily tracking with large sample sizes, we think that we are making a real contribution to understand the trajectory, the

trend line of the race. >> it's funny you bring up the out liar and bloomberg. we had criticism at that. she responded to it. one of the criticisms we talked about, the biggest difference in that poll and why obama had a bigger lead, again it was the race break down. she only had the white population under 70%. which we hadn't seen either. >> one credit to other polls including nbc and "wall street journal," at the end of the survey, every time you release the results, you can see all the demographics. you can see what the pollster hit the targets and gallup is fabulous in disclosing all sorts of things, but you can't see for those 3,000 interviews every day and six or 7,000 a week what they were weighted to. >> two other things and i will run out of time and my producer will be mad at me.

let me ask you when it comes to waiting, do you wish you could wait by party? >> no, we don't. that's an old thing. you may remember the good old day when is that used to be the topic du jour when i talk with people like yourself. that's a moving target. a lot of them say i know what they will be like on election day. i'm not sure they do. the way they manage the party may be different than the way we do it. we stayed away from the effort to try to wait to an unknown moving target. >> let me ask you this. i have been an advocate and i can't talk them into doing it and talk them into doing this. we have discussed this. why not release multiple results. this is what your results would look like with the 2008 exit poll and the 2010. what we think it could be. why not release three versions every day? >> that's an excellent idea. you are right. what you are talking about is

scenarios. what if this and what if that. that's an excellent way to do it. we may do more of it this year. thanks for the suggestion. we confusing the situation? >> we do a good job confusing people either way. it's important to see both if the result is different, it helps for us to be able to look at the poll and see what the democrat-republican mix was and the racial mix. >> transparency, transparency. that is one thing that you guys are helpful at giving everything out. no one can say that. mr. newport, a pleasure as always. thank you. i'm sure we will be talking more about this. the panel will be here next talking about how the arizona ruling complicates the race for a time. plus new york city icon, charlie rangle after 40 plus years. will the greatest throaty voice in congress be there next year? the white house soup of the day,

french onion. the president is not there to eat it, but french onion, you put cheese on anything, it makes it better. always follow the show on facebook. we have a lot of interesting suggestions from our new look. the beta test. we are working on some of the bugs, i promise you. you are watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. high schools in six states enrolled in the national math and science initiative... ...which helped students and teachers get better results in ap courses. together, they raised ap test scores 138%. just imagine our potential... ...if the other states joined them. let's raise our scores. let's invest in our teachers and inspire our students. let's solve this.

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press. my pal who has a booth that i think is bigger than the nbc booth. you do pack more people into it. first let's start with immigration, robert. yesterday, are we being totally crass here. any day he is not talking about romney is a good day for him. >> if you take a listen to what he said yesterday off camera about immigration, he does not want to talk about immigration. the main reason is he doesn't have a good why. he has a deportation comment in the primary. he knows from mccain and bush, other people that are talking about immigration as a republican is a bad thing. >> sorry there an effective hit on immigration? >> not now, but we will see if in fact -- exactly. >> when you saw this yesterday and saw the way the obama folks reacted, they were just as muted it seemed for a while and the

president came out and criticized the one part. >> it was a split decision and it set up perfectly so everyone can pick what they wanted. the president was talking not just about the parts he liked, but he spent a lot of time talking about if you are able to pull over people for reasons and check their immigration status, we need to do that in a humane way and have shared values and responsibility. he leaned in more to the ruling in terms of setting out his agenda and the play to his panic voters. governor romney had minimal comments and tried to shift to president obama immediately and do that later in the day. they wanted to stay focused. >> you hadn't had this job yet, you were literally going to travel on air force one. you and jay carney will be there to answer official questions. you guys divide that and they do travel more than me. it makes you go almost every

time. >> who gets to decide. you will say no, no, no. don't try to talk about this one. don't make them have to answer this question. i want to answer this question. the cheap criticism on the president ise had a super majority and had 60 votes for a while. he couldn't get immigration done and why couldn't he take responsibility for the fact that the states are frustrate and why shouldn't it be more on the president? >> he came close on the dream act. while he didn't get this piece done yet, he did get health care and financial reform and almost energy done. he has more work to do and that's one of the reason he wants more years. >> the chief criticism has been tactics. you like having the immigration issue to hold over the republican party's head. >> if immigration reform could be a law now, the president would be thrill and happy to be

talking about that as an accomplishment that has been done. the fact that mitt romney's best criticism is the president hasn't done enough when the president has been fight figure are the dream act and immigration reform is weak soup. it makes clear as robert said he doesn't have a good answer. >> when was the last time he held an immigration meeting with republican supporters? >> i have not been in the white house for months. i can't tell you. >> that's an answer on sunday. >> who can split it? >> it is an issue that he is very personally passionate about. when the dream act didn't get through, people were crying in the white house. the president was hugging people who were emotional about it. it's something that he cared about his whole life and he will continue fighting for continue fighting for t. >> republicans on the hill and even democrats said to us, lead us, mr. president. you need to set up the framework. >> want him to take basically -- nobody has the gut to us take on this issue politically in the senate that is the real issue. >> takes two to tang gheerks is

what i will say. >> i want to jump to charlie rangel, watching charlie here, i have to say, i didn't know -- sort of forgot that new york had to move up its primaries. how much is he going to benefit from low, low, low, low turnout? >> snuck up on everybody. i think this is one of these cases were it is quintessential local politics, right? we are watching it from washington. what impact could it have on the institution? folks in new york don't want to be told what to do don't want to be told about his ethics problems whether it should sway their vote. their call. >> jen, you work for a firm that does a lot of new york races. >> yes. >> how concerned are your part they are about turnout today? >> look, turnout is never great in these type of elections, as you have talked about but rangel is a survivor and he is -- >> working for him or against him? >> not sure. >> put you on the spot there hang on, going to talk more on the other side. robert, trivia time. we asked, aside from judges what federal government job has the longest term of office in the answer, the comptroller general,

who heads up the gao. service for a 15-year term but it is not eligible for reappointment. we will be right back. you are watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. nes and in coffee shops. people who have been out of work. you can tell it wears on them. narrator: he's fought to pull us out of economic crisis for three years. and he still is. president obama's plan keeps taxes down for the middle class, invests in education and asks the wealthy to pay their fair share. mitt romney and his billionaire allies can spend milions to distort the president's words. but they're not interested in rebuilding the middle class. he is. i'm barack obama and i

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let's bring back our panel, robert train nam, jen sack kind ben ferrellism interrupt you had on charlie rangel, one more thing when it combo,s to charlie rangel. he may survive, a lot of people tried force him into retirement. >> you may not remember this, he was the upset in the 1970s running against adam clayton powell. >> the second? the third? >> the fourth ran against him in '95. look, 45% nonwhite hispanic now.

31% is black now. 21% is white. the demographics are changing and the folks that rangel represent does not look like him, they do look like him -- >> that is the important point here it is the growth of the hispanic population, which, by the way, has been feeng this immigration, feeling everything we are talking about charlie rangel may be a victim of this. he might be. interesting to see whether this has any national reverberation. again, i think we watch it from the viewpoint of somebody an icon, such a personality in congress for so long, but nationally, i think the growth of the hispanic population in the swing states is going to be such an important factor, including on the economy, not just on immigration, but that's where we are going to see obama and romney continuing to hit home because those voters could swing any of those states. >> shameless plugs, only took this job to be back on air force one, is that right? >> that's right, the food, the burrito bowls. no security lines. >> i'm thrilled to be back and working for the president, as of next week. my shameless plug for instant could have find inven eggs of the ipad which will make life

better for all on the campaign trail. >> instant coffee has been around a while. >> no. no. no. i will say the starbucks little ones. >> robert, shameless plug? >> pam stevens, former nbcer, now with gop. >> you know what this means? better be helping with the booking? >> absolutely. >> now she is in trouble. >> you know i'm going personal my son sam, turned 1-year-old this month. and now he sang with the big boys. so, anything that happens in his life, most important story of the day. >> there you go. that's it for this edition of the daily run down. tomorrow, speak oefg polling it is poll day. we will break down the new nbc ws/"wall street journal" poll. tonight with brian williams. up next, chris jansing. bye bye. business travel forecast, we are watching the tropical storm in florida, creating problems, especially north florida. the other story is the amazing heat across the country.

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it kills weeds to the root, so they don't come back. roundup. no root. no weed. no problem. good morning, i'm chris jansing. one big supreme court decision down, one to go in a critical week in washington that's just getting started. thursday, during this house, we will get the long-awaited ruling on the president's health care law. congress is dealing with student

loans. and attorney general eric holder is facing a contempt vote from the full house. but right now, we are watching arizona, where the show me your papers portion of the controversial immigration law was upheld and today, officers are being retrained to enforce it. >> the heart of senate bill 1070 has been proven to be constitutional. arizona and every other state's inherent authority to protect and defend its people has been upheld. >> five other states with similar laws are now assessing how this ruling will affect their own enforcement. and with president obama and mitt romney only issuing statements reacting to the ruling, we are waiting to see if they have anything to say today on the campaign trail. let me bring in "washington post" columnist dana milbank and joy reed, managing editor of thegrio.com. good morning to both of you. you heard jan brewer call this a win. both sides are calling it a win s there a clear political advantage here? >> well, it