let's start with the new "wall street journal" poll after the most tumultuous month. the e team innic jobs report. under fire and the immigration decision. $100 million in tv ads spent in the swing states and on the surface it appears that little has changed. in the numbers, a different story. leaving the race more defined and the country more polarized, if that's possible. the president narrowly leads romney 47-44. nearly identical to last month. you find key shifts. the president is on up ticks with support from hispanics and mid-westerners and voter who is are college educated. mitt romney's support grew among white women and white independents. in the swing states, the president's lead is larger than it is overall. 50-42. one reason for the edge may be

the fact that the president is spending $25 million on a purely anti-romney ad campaign in the states. >> those are the ones that are launched this week and appear to have taken a toll on personal ratings. after three months, his negative rating is back to a high of 39%. our poll exposed the president's weaknesses as well. his job rating is upside down. 47% appve and 48% disapprove. it's the first net negative that he had all year in over six months. his rating is worse on the economy. 42% approve and 53% disapprove. in the past month, they have grown more mess mystic. the first time the number has been over 60 since january. the president has a new argument

to respond to the negatives. the economy and unemployment. >> the debate in this election is not whether we need to do better. everybody understands the economy is not where it needs to be. the debate in this election is about how do we do better? >> a fascinating part about our polls and shows how divided the country is. voters from both parties appear to be putting the political glasses on first when thinking about the big issues that are out there. it's true when it comes to the economy. asked whether the economy is recovering, 47% didn't believe it. drilled deeper into the numbers, 75% of democrats believe the economy is recovering and 29% of republicans believe it is recovering. we see the same divide by party when asked about what the role of government should be. 75% of democrats believe the government needs to do more to

meet the challenges of folks. 76% think government is doing too many things. the point is, you are seeing a hardening inside the obama romney numbers and the coalitions being formed and built. different coalitions than in the past, but they are building coalitions that get them there. can they get a coalition that gets them to 50? when the supreme court rules, the justices begin to debate and many haven't made up their mines about how they feel. there is a hard core base for the president's health care law and a bigger hard core base against it. there is a surprisgly large number of folks with mixed feelings about it. 28% would be pleased if the law is ruled constitutional and 34% would have mixed feelings.

39% said their feelings would be mixed if the law is struck down. or pollsters believe the court's ruling could be crucial in forming the views of those voters who are sitting in that mixed feelings category. they are persuadable, waiting to see what the high court says. both are warming up responses as they await the big verdict. here's romney in virginia. >> if it is deemed not constitutional, it will have been wasted on something that does not help the american people. if it is deemed to and, then i will tell you we will have to have a president that will get rid of obama care. we will stop it on day one. >> the romney campaign and mitt romney has a response ready no matter what comes down. here's the president defending his health care law at a

fund-raiser in miami. >> you can decide whether to roll back the reforms that we put in place that prevent insurance companies from discriminating against people who are sick. i believe it's the right thing to do and i believe health reform was the right thing to do. i believe it was right it make sure that everybody in this country gets decent health care and is not bankrupt when they get sick. that's what i believe. but it's up to you. you decide. >> as you see, it appears that if it's struck down, have a conversation and have a campaign conversation about what do do you then? >> finally, if it's wednesday, we have election results. it's a story of survival for two long time incumbent who is face primaries. democrat charlie rangle gets to make a run in congress after he beat off challenger in the 13th district.

45-40. it was close. the crowded primary field helped a little bit. he held it since 1970. it was considered up for grabs and censured by the house for 11 ethics violations including failure to pay taxes. even the president hinted he would like to see charlie rangle resign at the time. he may be testimonying back. keep an eye on the 18th and 19th district. democrats are trying to make them competitive and policy whether there is a chance to pick up more than a handful of seats in november. another story, utah senator oren hatch breezed to victory. he won 67% of the vote, but not every incumbent was so lucky. john sullivan who represents oklahoma's first district is going home after he was upset by a tea party challenger. speak of oklahoma, the second district put up one of the last

blue dog democrats retiring there. republicans believe both the republican and democratic primaries ended up in run offs and we don't know who the nominees are going to be. they believe they can pick up that seat. last minute talks between the house and house republicans had a contempt vote of congress against the attorney general expected to happen tomorrow after the supreme court releases their verdict. the two sides necessary a stalemate over the republicans known as and furious. joining me now is luke russert. luke, it was interesting. huh boehner joining darrell issa at the white house and not with t the -- >> it did not get very far. there was a meeting last afternoon at the white house

between representatives from darrell iaas and speaker boehner's office and neighbors was there. a man you know well. they said look, let's do away with the contempt and show you all the do you means you need to know. here's a 30-page sampling of the ones related and the folks from boehner's office and iss a's office said no. you need to show us more. the white house said no, not until you take the contempt charge off the table. from where we stand, the house rules committee will meet and formulate the rules of the debate for the motion tomorrow. there is going to be a vote on criminal contempt and a vote on civil contempt. what's the difference between the two? criminal contempt will refer to the attorney general here in d.c. the district attorney who will say we can't prosecute the boss. that will be nothing. the civil attempt will then try

to recommend this and both of those lack substantive bite. if anything it's for show. the first attorney general held in contempt and put the ad out through november. >> the nra is scoring this vote for and this is for and against depending on how you vote on this. >> this is the biggest news associated with this vote from anything we have heard so far. and they are going to score this and they nl there has been a experience in the white house. they allow this to move have the guns in the mexico border area and you have an assault.

a lot of democrats view with them, but there a lot of democrat who is are scare and they have blue dogs. 30 to 35 democrats vote in contempt of eric holder because of the fear of the nra. you wouldn't have had that the one thing they cannot do is political suicide and get a bad voting record from the nra. >> unbelievable. anybody charging politics and it makes scoring the vote easier. >> issa was one of the theories too. it was a huge factor and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. >> an under reported factor in this story. up next, we will ask the top

democrat what he thinks about 30 to 35 democrats can join democrats and holding him in contempt. the cutting edge, can anything be done to stop the budget cuts? there is a delay vote coming sooner than we think. jim clyborn will be here next. state of emergency. devastating fires in colorado and the damaging floods in florida. natural disasters in an election year is trickier and more pressure on government responses. first a look ahead at the president's schedule. today he has campaign events. the big congressional picnic. how many republicans come for the picnic and they talk contempt vote for the attorney general. msnbc. ♪

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>> tomorrow's vote on whether to hold eric holdner contempt may not be a strictly partisan affair. they can join the republican effort. republicans say he failed to address intelligence leaks and obstructing the fast and furious investigation. >> given the choice between being the chief law enforcement officer and a politicalrm of the obama white house. attorney general holder unfortunately is often once again for the latter rather than the former. >> with me now is leader james

cli born of south carolina. good morning. >> good morning. how are you? >> i'm okay. i want you to address a report up to 30 to 35 democrats may join the republicans on this vote. a bipartisan vote changes the politics of this fast and furious deal. is it not? what are you doing behind the scenes? >> thank you so much for having me, chuck. first of all, i do believe that this issue goes far beyond oversight. i believe this is a bit of overkill on the part of this committee. it is not new to this committee. you may recall we spent a lot of time with this committee under dan burton with ron brown and stuff they just made up. when you look at the trail that i have familiarized myself with,

they are about four of the episodes, three of which took place in the bush administration. the same people who were held over into the obama administration conducted one subsequent to that. why is he not asking for all of these records. those three things that took place and how they led up under president obama and then let's take a look at what the faxes are. that's not what they want to do. they want to keep all of this and when he found out about it stopped it. why would he hold them responsible? >> what do you think the motivation is.

>> it's political. if you look at what happened yesterday where the tea partyie beat the senate republican by ten points, they are attempting to ply this issue. look at what happened in pennsylvania last week. where the legislator laid out all of their accomplishments and brought in the fact that we have passed our laws on voter id and more palatable for mitt romney. those are his words and that should tell the american people what this agenda is all about. this has nothing to do with running the country, but trying to do what they can to win an

election. >> do you believe you have all the answers? >> do believe that. when you get the answers, you have to take into account this attorney general cannot allow people to bully with people trying to make mistakes. i have come out of these kine of politics and i know exactly how this game is played. so far general holder is doing what he ought to do. run his office the way he was sworn to run it and not be allowed to be bullied into doing things that can violate the law and distort the credibility of the judicial system. >> let me ask you about the healing care system.

i will give it a shot this morning. i believe this. irrespective of what the supreme court may do on health care, we as members of the legislature ought to respond appropriately. by that i mean i was around in the 60s when we failed to get voting rights and housing and public accommodations in the original civil rights act in 1964. we came back in 1965 and got voted. we came back in 1968 and got housing laws. then four years after that in 1972, we outlawed employment discrimination in the public sector. we had four distinctly different pieces of legislation over eight years to get what we now call the civil rights act.

i think the same thing for health care. irrespective of what the supreme court may do, we are going to be working on accessibility to health care and affordability of health care for a long time into the future. >> very quickly, the budget cuts are supposed to kick in. a lot of speculation there. they may get delayed until the spring of 2013. is that vote happening before august? is that your guess? we have enough time to delay this after august. i would love to see this and good lib rags to take place. whatever they do before the end of the year, it won't be for more than a year, i'm sure. thanks for coming on this morning. >> thank you so much for having me. >> the rollest coaster ride and

the preview of the day ahead. next on market run down and convention dissension. more prominent democrats are opting to skip out of the crazy hats and the balloon drop. we'll explain why next. first the trivia question, the only current supreme court justice without a degree from harvard or yale. tweet me and the first correct answer will get a follow wednesday from us and not a degree. the answer is coming up on "the daily rundown." coming up. ovider is different but centurylink is committed to being a different kind of communications company by continuing to help you do more and focus on the things that matter to you. you know how hard if yit can be to breathedo, and what that feels like. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema.

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residents living in the area and

the air force academy under high winds and temperatures of over 100 degrees entered the efforts to contain the flame. 60 mile an hour gusts at one point. one of the biggest disasters in colorado history. meanwhile in florida, the tropical depression debby is moving out to the atlantic and sitting on the arm pit of florida. the storm dumped roughly two feet of rain in parts of sunshine state causing damage to hundreds of homes. we don't have the drainage down there. that's never the plan. the response to these two natural disasters may impact more than just the residents there. the response from the national and state government. another big name democrat on the

decline list. missouri senator clair mccaskill is skipping the party's gathering and she said so on "morning joe." facing a tough race in missouri she will spend the week campaigning instead. and it starts after labor day. concerns over europe condition as they get ready to meet tomorrow. what will angela merkel do to help the troubled european economy. let's get to the market run down. it was amazing in mexico, every world leader was badgering her at some point and president obama according to the administration was playing mediator as leaders from asian

and latin american economies said please do something. they don't want to pick up the debts from other countries or other countries if they are not going to get more say in making sure that these countries don't start spending again and someone can retire at age 55 in greece. as a result she is talking tougher and tougher that is catching a lot of people by surprise that she is talking so tough. she made comments in terms of germany picking up other people's debts without getting a say, that's not going to happen in my lifetime. she is talking tough and saying you have to remember that germany can't do everything and can't be the only to test it. that's why the market is on the stand still. futures are looking like we are going to open in a flat line. we want to see what happens over the next two days. i will send it back to you.

angela merkel is the woman to watch. >> absolutely. thank you, becky. up next, we are taking a deeper dive in the new poll. questions we haven't reported on yet. why this race may be more set in concrete than in mud. surprising thing when is we asked voters to tell us the first thing that comes to mind about a president obama or president romney. ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing new dentyne split to fit pack. it splits in to two smaller, sleeker packs that fit almost anywhere so you can take them everywhere. dentyne split to fit. practice safe breath.

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together, they raised ap test scores 138%. just imagine our potential... ...if the other states joined them. let's raise our scores. let's invest in our teachers and inspire our students. let's solve this. the deep dive. today is what else? when you want to consider yourself national polling, do you it on your own poll. we brought back the word cloud to give you an idea how people survive president obama and mitt romney. the president's positives. top answers are good job for the people and another top answer was health care, believe it or not. that was among the top negative

answers as well. the president's number one negative, the economy. that's over everything else and high unemployment and incompetent are the other top answers. mitt romney got more negative than positive, but the positive is high marks as a business man, change, conservative. a reflection of the huge number of anti-obama voters in the romney camp. the negatives, the top two answers are favors the rich and out of touch. let's bring in the pollsters. good morning to you both. i wanted to get a quick response. when you see the word clouds hanging over president obama, anything surprise you? >> on the positive side of health care. >> on the negative side, incompetent? >> that is surprising.

i guess it's related to the economy, but his foreign policy successes we noted have been a strength. it seems counter intuitive. >> now mitt romney. the one thing you disagreed on was how much to read into the word cloud where peter was saying he's got definition issues to do. you noted you thought it was similar to barack obama's word cloud when we did this in 2008. >> sure. the president obama at that time is a candidate, about a 1-1 relationship from favorable to unfavorable word clouds like the day for romney. four years ago, about 6 out of 10 said i think i know enough about this guy, barack obama. my point is there is a similar pace to a campaign cycle. romney is the new nominee and just like barack obama in june of 08, that's what people are paying attention to.

>> i want to get into the horse race because nothing change and yet a lot changed. it's hard to tell your bosses in new york that. a lot changed. fred, the coalition you see for the president putting together, bill loves to look at this closely, it's like a coalition we have not had this. >> young voters and african-american voters and suburban women. i just think it's a lot of it is we will see after this election how transferrable it is to the party in general. >> for may be unique to obama. what's amazing is he saw numbers, his numbers didn't move and he saw increases among constitue constituents and independents, but lost ground on college-educated ways. >> what happens is there is two

great national coalitions and a pro government and anti-government coalition about the same size. something important happened in the poll, hardening of the arteries. obama is up to 90% and romney 87% of republican. gh water mark for both of them and the margins among the core groups got bigger. romney is doing better with his core groups and obama did better with his core groups. we are watching the two national coalitions locking into place for the nominees and widdling down narrower in terms of how much is up. >> you bring up the role of government, people answered politically. that's a presidential split, is it not? there it is. >> the oe obama and the romney policy. >> the country split down the

middle. >> democrats versus americans. everybody will want to see the issue of the economy and republicans plus six. is that a big enough lead? >> usually around plus nine you start winning campaigns. plus 6 is terrific. who handles the economy goes back and forth and it's a predictor of the direction of the cycle. to me that's the most -- one of the most important in the series and a positive for mitt romney and a positive for the republican party. >> one counter, the strongest party performance on an issue is looking out for the middle class. there is the counter. how important is that nuer? >> look at it. the party in that administration is putting a lot on the fact that this is about who is for you. that involves economy and jbs and other issues to which the party has an advantage. the top advantages that are controlling the spending and reducing the deficit.

not surprising. it surprised me dealing with terrorism as the third biggest strength considering everything that happened on obama's watch. >> there 60 years of party perceptions about wch parties do which things better. when i look at the numbers, they are not surprising. i looked at 08, 04, 94 when things change. for example, democrats by 13 points in health care. that's a big lead. not really. they were 31 points ahead in 2006 when they took the house back. in 99 they were 25 points ahead. a 13-point lead in health care for democrats is erosion of the historic margins because of the obama health care plan. >> i want to highlight the three closest things and it will tell us about who wins the issues. representing which party represents getting you up the economic ladder who is dead

even. which party represents changing how washington works, democrat plus one. overseeing wall street and democrats favored plus two. winning the arguments matters to these parties. >> back to what bill said, part is on some issues like terrorism, president obama has managed to break out of this versus our dynamic. on these issues, you mentioned opportunity and changing how washington works. barack obama will separate himself from the party. >> you feel developing over the last 48 hours and a few polls, lack of definition. becoming a party from him? >> it's june of 2012. >> you don't think it's an impact? >> guess what. for lots of americans, they pay

attention to politics. they pay attention to politic when is they need to make a decision. for 7 out of 10 americans, that's the campaign. we are comparing barack obama who 85% said i know enough to make a decision with the new nominee for the republican party. i am just saying for goodness sake, let's take a deep breath and not be shocked that the nominee of the party is not totally defined for the american ex-elect rate in june. >> i would agree. we have another months to continue to define them. >> we have supreme court tomorrow and all the health care questions we will ask again. our hump day political panel is here next. we are talking about why the obama campaign dollars may be going further than what the republican campaign dollars are

doing. i will explain after the break. going to the supremes, the countdown is on and the health care ruling is 24-hours and 18 minutes away. not that we are counting. the white house soup of the day, cod, tomato and white bean. it's as if the president's travel schedule, he got ingredients from all of them when he made the soup. you can follow the show on facebook. complain, poke, like, whatever you want to do. [ female announcer ] fashion or food, it's all about taste. and the chefs at lean cuisine are loving tangy lemon, peppery poblano, sweet butternut. we're roasting, and grilling to create must-have meals with no preservatives. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

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the blitz might be extracting a poll who is winning the campaign battle. a cnb contributor and republican strategist. writer with "the washington

post" and a double "washington post" day. david covers the white use. don't tell the people that have a billing up in new york. we have a new york show. i will start with you and we are discussing this off camera. what's amazing is whenny look at the poll and it is won by team obama. i look at the top media marks and showing you who is spending the money. and americans for prosperity is splitting the pie. three messages from three messages. it's one message. this is something you guys didn't know how to deal with. >> dwee because the money on the other side. this is a challenge for romney.

at the end of the day, where the money is being spent and we see the patterns emerge. there is a lot of money being spent that is dropped off. as a result of that, it indicates to me that romney is moving into a position of strength. starting to move back to more traditional swing states. >> you guys used to argue. you got outspent in 2004 and looks like obama will get outspent in the swing states in 2008, but you claim the advantage was you controlled the message. kerry didn't. that is an advantage you can have in that situation. >> that is an advantage for the president. that said, i think if you look at where most of the money will be spent, it's going to be spent largely from cross roads and cross roads gps. in 2004, the democrats had four different groups spending money and significant money.

while you may be seeing impact on the obama advertising, keep in mind this is early. mitt romney has not been defined yet. >> you saw them fighting this conventional wisdom. is mitt romney getting defined in the wrong way and does he need to define himself? >> it is early, but we see from the president his message matches his ads closely. we see the president talking about bain capital and trying to define romney buzz they see a window there. each stop he makes, we saw he had a big story about romney's tenure and immediately latch on to that obama campaign and starting campaigning talking about outsourcer in chief. that double whammy that the president controls all sides as you mentioned. >> in the poll, both bain had a

nes negative and solyndra had a worse negative. they were a popular thing for the republicans to advertise on in may and they stopped. you see the obama folks are not stopping no matter what criticism they are getting from the elite media. >> we hate the elite media. i want to go back to the issue of controlling the message and defining the candidate early. to some ex-at the present time it reminds me of the argument we heard in 1996. thclinton campaign spent a huge amount of money defining bob dole early on. i do agree though with bill that there is do agree, though, with that there's a lot of bumps in the road and a lot of people, other than us, are not paying attention out there. >> still hasn't happened yet. and the biggest one -- the first of the big four beginses tomorrow. we'll talk about that after the break. 24 hours and 9 minutes and 50

seconds away from the supreme court ruling. who is the only current supreme court justice without a degree from harvard or yale? the answer -- did you know? justice ruth bader ginsburg. she attended cornell and then harvard law school but received her degree from columbia law. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc.

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okay. our sources are saying in about 24 hours, but it's 24 hours and six minutes. the supreme court ruling will hand down this ruling overhauling health care reform.

ruth marcus, you're the white house. you heard what the president did yesterday. how do you are recover from any part of this law being constitutional? >> well, i have a view that in a weird way, whatever the court does is a lose-lose for the white house. this is what i mean by that. if they rike it counsel, then you have the justices, five of them, any way, saying that the president of the united states was willing to run rough shot over the constitution. but if they uphold it, maybe sarah can speak to this, how energizing is this? i understand there's another side that the democratic base would be all worked up. don't like the individual mandate. if the supreme court upholds the law, the republican base and other voters will know that the only way to save the country from obamacare, which i support, by the way, would be to defeat him. so it's just a hard -- it's a hard political situation. >> what's your sense of the white house, that they would prefer not to defend something

unconstitutional? >> yes. >> at the end of the day, if they picked a lose-lose situation, one is a bigger loser than the other? >> i think so. and there is this idea that there is a loss that the democratic base would rally behind them. if the court upholds the law, it might inflame the republican base. >> okay. just for purely crass political purpos -- >> it's a split. from a policy perspective, get rid of the mandate and the court uphold portions of the law. and then the real winner is going to be the nrc. this become a more defined congressional issue but it becomes -- >> i think it's baked in the presidential. i think this can be a real issue in senate races. >> a wonderful piece in the

paper today at washingtonpost.com about immigration and his failure to answer sustained questions about immigration. >> for all those covers tomorrow, ruth marcus. >> are you shame snls. >> i'm not shameless plug. i just joined the board and it's going to change the way advertising is bought in this country. >> if you say so, bring some of that advertising over here that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." tomorrow it's supreme court ruling day. coming up next, chris jansing. bye-bye. and who doesn't want 50% more cash? ugh, the baby. huh! and then the baby bear said, "i want 50% more cash in my bed!" phhht! 50% more cash is good ri... what's that. ♪ you can spell.

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us a window into where that race stands. now, the crisis in europe, the recall in wisconsin and slipping. and also what might have been his best month today, may, where romney beat the campaign and fundraising in his bus tour showed more of his softer side. the poll shows romney's negatives are up, higher than the presidents who remain personally popular. let me bring in josh marshal and david corn. washington bureau chief of mother jones. i like what our pollster had to say. what is going to change people's mind? what issing going to move the needle? >> the economy for europe and there