>> any time. we'll punch your tickets. >> they're lighting fireworks on 495. >> we ought to begin with something, mark, you just heard. apparently politico is reporting yesterday romney's senior adviser was on with chuck todd and indicated the whole health care thing, it's not a tax. well, why don't we just clear this thing up and here's what eric said right here. >> the governor believes that what we put in place in massachusetts was a penalty and he disagrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. >> so he agrees with the president th it is not -- he believes you shouldn't call the tax penalty a tax, you should call it a penalty or a fee or a fine? >> that's correct. >> say what? >> you know, i think that's the only position they could have

taken, what some republicans are criticizi criticizing, including some close to the campaign is that eric shouldn't have gone so far as to annunciate that. and also he should have said what the campaign is now saying, which is it's up to the froze say do you think it's a constitutional tax or an unconstitutional fee or penalty of some sort? they're lucky it happened on a summer day because had congress been in session and eric had said that, i think you would have seen a lot of reverberations and a lot of uncomfortable republicans refuting the campaign. i think they'll get through this because they agree, repeal obamacare, obamacare is an intrusion from washington, medicare and medicaid shouldn't have money pumped into this while it's not reformed. this is an uncomfortable place for them. >> i think there's a lot that's unpopular in obamacare.

virtually no congressional democrats are going to campaign on the vote for obamacare, even now. so while yesterday was a complicated day, a think any day there's a discussion about obamacare is a good day for the romney campaign and not good for the obama campaign. >> what did politico report this morning? >> well, that eric made a mistake rather than enunciating campaign policy. >> not his first. >> i would think that was sort of something that he reported yesterday, too, that it was a mistake. >> what could he have said? the campaign doesn't want to say a penalty for people without health care is a tax because they don't want to say governor romney raised the tax in massachusetts. he could have found a way to not answer the question. maybe that was the mistake. >> or let the obama administration decide. what is it?

a constitutional tax or unconstitutional penalty? mr. obama, which is it? >> speaking of of the obama administration, david axelrod wrote "as the republicans parties and super pacs try to depict this narrow, freeloader penalty that would touch less than 1% of americans as a broad tax on the middle class they are sliming their own nominee. >> clearly the people in chicago leapt on this as fast as they could. they love the idea there's a discrepancy between the republicans party and what they're say. as dan said, it was a complicated campaign, the white house thinks it was a good day for them, even if the subject was about obamacare.

i think the question is whether voters' minds will be changed whether it was a tax or a penalty. all the polling since the supreme court's voting suggests minds have not changed very much on the actual health care act and i find it hard to believe that people are going to be passing that much, oh, okay, now i don't like the health care act because there's a tax involved in it. those people didn't like the health care act anyway. i'm not sure it's actually going to change a huge number of minds come november. i'm not sure minds are going to be changed by the ruling or by the issue of whether it's a tax or a penalty. >> katty is right. we're are talking about getting really in the weeds here. we're in the business of mindless weeding. no, it's like weed myopia. we're talking about obamacare every day, even something as anced as -- >> i'm outta here. >> yeah.

it's a pretty good day for the romney campaign and republicans because they want to have this discussion. >> i agree this is largely an issue of semantics. i think the best thing to come out of the sreme court case is the veil of secrecy has been to some degree lifted on obamacare. i didn't expect the polls to change a weak later but i think as you get the insurance checks in the mail, as you figure utility be covered for preexisting conditions, when the american public has a practical real world interacts with eight fordable care act, i think that will change minds. that is slower and harder to poll. >> maybe it will but as dan suggested in the advertising, you see "the weekly standard" with an editorial today saying romney must go after health care, he must keep talking about health care, it's a great issue. you see republican groups like crossroads advising already o

health care. you don't see a lot of democrats with the exception of nancy pelosi saying this is great for us, let's go to the american people and make this election a referendum on whether obamacare is good. >> it's never going to supersede jobs and the economy as an issue, though. i don't see it happening. what i do see happening is this t continuing dialogue on the romney campaign. calls for romney campaign shake-up continued to gain ground as news corporation rupert murdoch became a berserk tweeter over the weekend. >> sort of you like you, mike? >> he said in one tweet met romney last week, tough chicago will be tough to beat unless he drops old team and hires real pros. yesterday those concerns were echoed by jackwe welch of ge an

he writes home mitt romney is listening to murdoch advice on campaign staff playing in league wi chicago pols. >> he's not there full time but he's at the table when big decisions are made and i don't know if jack welch or rupert murdoch can name someone who can win more campaigns than ed gillespie. it's true there are some people in there who have never won a presidential campaign. the president's campaign team is also relatively small and they've won a campaign. i don't think there are too many out there who would say they've run to date a much better campaign than the romney people. >> i would say the romney inner circle is a pretty good balance between people who have been with him for a very long time

and people who have been with him over the last few years, matt rhodes, ed gillespie. you look at the bush inner circle from 2000, 2004, they were pretty good at winning campaigns. that balance is pretty similar. it's not clear to me if you start actually asking for specific names what some of these people from the sidelines making recommendations would propose. >> or specific mistakes that they've made. >> go ahead. >> we came out of of the primary season assuming that mitt romney had been damaged by a long and difficult primary season, that he was a weak candidate and that he, you know, although the numbers were going to be close because of the state of the american economy, that he on the whole didn't come out of that primary season looking particularly good. actually, look at all the poll numbers and the latest cnn poll numbers in those swing states,

he seems to be doing pretty well. it's hard to say given the material they're working with that the campaign is doing a bad job. >> you know, once again, katty is right on the money. you came with your a game today. we appreciate that because i'm a complete dunce cap when it comes to this. i don't know much at all. but we're going to get to those polls. right now we're going to find out what mitt romney is doing in wolfboro, new hampshire, taking a break from the campaign frenzy, in the middle of his week-long vacation with the entire romney family, there in his family compound. garrett, it's kind of early to be out on lake winnipesaukee on the old jet ski. what's he doing? >> reporter: he's probably up and around. about 30 people out.

about a third of the town is part of the romney family or part of the press corps who has gone to take an eye on him. >> we've seen pictures of the rochl ani -- romneys looking kennediesque. are they letting them take the photos? >> a little of both. you couldn't stage a better photo when they got on two boats and came into town to get ice cream as a family. an ap photographer was cutting through town and stopped to take the shots and you're seeing waterfront shots. his house, the way it's set up, is way back in the cove that you can't get anywhere near. they've bought up the land around it. you might have all seen this photograph of mitt and ann on a

jet ski yesterday. they were cruising around the lake with everybody else. aside from a coast guard boat or police boat or two, there's no aggressive push back from security. it's everybody's lake for the summer. >> garrett, have you seen tim pawlenty hitching himself to a jet ski yet, rob portman hammering nails into a board? >> yeah, we had tim pawlenty with the snow cone. the big secret to this whole weekend may be that there's no big secret. at least this far it's really been by all accounts been a family weekend. you had them at church on sunday, the kids out fishing, no sign of the vp short listers this weekend. we're all looking ahead to next weekend. rob portman will be in the state. he's doing fund-raiser and speaking for the new hampshire gop. he'll be up here. it's worth keeping in mind that it was only last weekend where you had this confab in utah where everybody who is on the

short list was in one place already and wouldn't have had to sneak around about being there. so it doesn't appear at this point, i could live long enough to regret saying this, that there's a sneaky vp audition going on as we speak. so he's here for the remainder of the week so there is still good time. >> tough duty. >> heavy lifting. >> garrett is going to leave now and go to the ihop, about six miles from lake winnipesaukee and have breakfast. not bad, huh? >> covering those presidential vacations is not as light a lift as some think. >> easier than being in waco, texas. >> you have to toggle back and forth between work and less work. the campaign aides aren't necessarily helpful in letting you know when you can cut loose. >> the romney family got some great shots yesterday. new polls show mitt romney and

barack obama are in a closely contested fight for the presidency. the poll finds president obama leading mitt 49% to 46%, in other words, jump ball. the survey of 15 key battleground states shows mitt romney ahead by a wide margin, 51% to 43%, in contrast to last week's wall street journal poll which showed president obama in the lead by 8 points. cnn polled missouri, arizona and indiana, hence romney's margin. the cnn orc poll also shows the country's deeply divided in the supre court's ruling to uphold president obama's health care bill. 50% agree with the justices' decision, while 49% disagree. 52% of those polled, most or all of the parts of affordable care act. what was that? back that up. i don't understand that. how is that written? 52% of the people polled favored

most or all of the parts of the affordable care act. okay. mitt romney plans to visit israel later this summer but we don't care about that. we want to talk about the numbers. what is going on here with two different poll, the disparity in those polls? >> the horse race stuff? >> yeah. >> as you said, if you include missouri, indiana and arizona, you're going to jack up governor romney's numbers and if you include those in the battleground states. i think the important number continues to not be their head to head so much as where the president is. a lot of these battle ground states the president is below 50. in some cases he's closer to 45. that's a real danger for him. hard for an incumbent at 45 to get to 50. the president will need about 50% to win this election. so i think today they're pretty close in a lot of these states but it's less who's ahead, who's behind because you have a margin of error there than it is the president being short of 50. >> especially when you consider that undecideds in a race like this will typically break --

typically, each election is its own, break for the incumbent. you assume in some of these close states if people are undecided right up until the election, they're probably going to break for the challenger. >> katty, i'm sticking with the theory it's still going to be a 2-point election and could tilt on things we're not even talking about today, things not even on our screen, including like the front page story in the "new york times" today about the straits of hormuz possibly being bottle necked by iran and explosion situation in the middle east. some event not on the screen here in this country. what do you think this. >> you can always have the outside events that change things and national security issues can have a big impact in that last month. the one thing you do know that they're watching which is

outside of their control is europe and the prospect of some breakup of the eurozone, which would send markets crazy and send interest rates up here. that is a real factor and white house officials are spending inordinate amounts of time working on the european crisis, not that there's very much they could do about it, they wish that there was. but that's something that's on the radar, that they know is a possibility. probably more likely i would have said than something about iran happening between now and november. that could cause some real problems in that final month. as you're suggests if the people make up their mind in the last couple of weeks, you have a market crisis in the middle of october because of the euro crisis, that's going to have a real impact on the election. >> the euro. >> the greeks. >> today's "wall street journal," manufacturing down. and the president not going to martha's vineyard this summer, first time in his presidency.

>> do you remember when bill clinton -- >> said youot to go to the mountains. >> where did he go again? >> wyoming. >> dude ranch. >> with all the bad news on manufacturing and international, it will be interesting to see what the president do instead of swanky martha's vineyard. >> up next in the exclusive first look at the political play book including details on what mitt romney plans to do while visiting israel this summer. also ahead, "the washington post's" eugene robinson and gillian tett, major garrett and marcus samuelsson joins us. >> first things first, of course washington, d.c. that horrible storm went through on friday. a couple million people without power. yesterday 95 degrees for all those poor people sitting there in the shade trying to keep cool. it's going to be just as hot today. look at the red on this map. 80% of the country with 90

degrees plus including that 101 in denver the heat has returned in colorado. the worst weather in the country is found in the great lakes. we have pretty strong thunderstorms rolling through minnesota, wisconsin and now through michigan. we're going to watch closely. it looks like detroit you're going to have those storms arriving about an hour from right now, right through the heart of flint, heading down toward detroit. ann arbor, those storms are just to your north. very warm conditions, 100 degrees kansas city, st. louis, chicago humid and 97, texas continues in the mid 90s and even d.c. once again in the mid 90s. when we talk about your 4th of july forecast, holiday forecast, the eastern sea board pop-up thunderstorms. most of those storms will be weakening and ending by the time the fireworks again. it wille a close call in

washington, d.c. and here in new york city with the macy's fireworks display. another hot day over washington, d.c. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. with the spark cash card from capital one, sven's home security gets the most rewards of any small business credit card!

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put to rest the mystery of amelia earhart, 75 years after she disappeared over the pacific. they will be looking for information near an island where they believe she died as a castaway. >> what do you think it is about that story that has such a hold? >> first woman to circumvent the globe, signals heard for years. >> i think she's right. those stories of adventurous people pioneering around the world and suddenly disappearing, it's all these imagination things, could she have survived, could she have been living there, as well as the fact she

was a first at doing something that women didn't do in her era. that was not a time when people got up and to be a planes and flew around theorld. >> katty and i circumnavigated the world. >> from "the "chicago tribune,"" illinois is drinking less beer than it used to. the average resident drank 63 six packs last year, about three fewer compared to 2007. illinois fell out of the stop five states in beer consumption per capita behind, get this, new hampshire, north dakota, montana, south dakota and nevada. what do you think? >> new hampshire! >> what do four of those five have in common? let's leave nevada out of it. the other four states? >> there's a lot of open space. >> long winters. >> not a lot of sunlight.

>> new hampshire, live free or die, i'm going to join a brew. >> how do you get a job at the beer institute? are they hiring? >> do you have to go to school? >> you have to go to the right college and get -- >> i've done a lot of independent study on it. >> from "the daily mail," two boys managed to slip past security and attempted to snatch the olympic torch out of the carrier's hands. >> that wasn't much. >> they're kids. >> if those kids can break through security line, what does that mean for all the spectators of the game? >> just saying, mike. the conversation is now posed to the general public. >> we put it on the table, didn't we? >> we did. >> and now we're going to take it off the table. >> when i get on the plane and i see a 10-year-old, i freak out.

>> joining us now, senior political reporter for political, jonathan martin. you got a big story for us? something about mitt romney going to israel? look at j-mart all dressed up. what do you got? >> hi, guy, good morning. the news today is that governor romney later this month is going to israel. two things here, first on the politics of this, i think it's interesting because president obama has not yet gone to israel during his presidency so it's not so subtle contract between romney and obama. and every nominee wnts to make some inroads with the jewish vote. on the imagery of it, this harkens back to what president obama did in the summer of '08 where he went abroad. it's about trying to be seen as presidential, trying to get into

the living rooms of americans as somebody as, yeah, i can see him as commander in chief. by being overseas and having meetings with netanyahu, the romney folks think maybe he looks the part. >> to paraphrase one of the great movie -- tell us as much as can you about what will governor romney do on the ground in israel for the day or two that he's there? >> he'll meet with prime minister netanyahu, who will host him at his home for a meal, something he hasn't done for this senior level official since vice president biden was in israel in 2010. he's going to meet with president perez. he's going to meet with the labor party opposition. he's going to meet with the palestinian leadership, and he's going to meet with the u.s. ambassador to israel. president obama's envoy to israel, dan shapiro, from whom he'll get some kind of country briefing. those are the big meetings he

has, which he'll be spanning the ideological spectrum within israel in the context of his meeting. >> his time is precious. what's the point of spending two days in israel? >> this will be his fourth trip to israel. one was a personal trip a number of years ago. he has declared that as president israel will be the first place he travels to, the first foreign country he travels to, which is pretty unprecedented. i would say, look, israel is many things. not the least of which is it is at the center of the storm. it is right there on the front lines of some of the biggest challenges america is dealing with the war today geopolitically, namely iran. governor romney feels strongly israel's fears are america's fears. the imagery of locking arms with this ally in this island in a sea of chaos is a pretty powerful one. it speaks not just to the importance of israel but to the

importance america puts with repairing its relationships with allies around the world. israel is a case study in the need to do that and he thinks going there to lock arms with israel will help emphasize that point. >> dan, there's been a lot of talk about the administration throwing israel under the bus on the part of the romney campaign. we know today the president is beefing up our naval presence in the strait of hormuz as a sign to israel there are some backup efforts and increase pressure on iran as sanctions take place. it's a delicate dance, we don't want to escalate anything but we do want to show strength. >> i think that this week the administration p5 plus one, the international community is heading into talks with iranians, the technical talks. the consensus is even among people of the administration, these talks don't look promising. i met with seone from the british government who was very skeptical these talks are going

anywhere. they're going to try to keep momentum up and going but there's a sense we need to start projecting there's some credibility of our military threat to the talks. i sense the iranians are dubious to that. the last thing that the region needs is military action either from the israelis or americans. whether or not we intend it use military force, a number of people, meincluded, believe the iranians need to believe we'll use military force. >> jonathan, i'll pose this question to you and then can you get in here. >> yeah. >> romney and netanyahu have a close friendship from when they both worked together in boston. how much is the campaign going to play that up saying look at mitt romney, he's had these age old relations with the most important person in that region, he's someone who can really get things done because of the

personal connection. >> i think you're going to hear a lot of that. the times did a story about two, three months ago about their relationship. and i think any remind they were the romney folks can give jewish voters be it his relationship with netanyahu or this trip over there and dan just offered a very high-minded explanation for the trip understandably, is going to be helpful. look, there are voters in places like florida and ohio who are hawkish on israel, jewish voters, who have concerns over this president and his relationship with israel. and if the romney folks could peel off, you know, a few thousand of those voters in crucial places like south florida, like cleveland, then that could make the difference in a very tight race. so, look, there are politics during the course of a campaign regardless of where the events are taking place. america, abroad, there's politics involved here. >> yeah. katty, i just -- it is true that

the u.s.-israel relationship is meaningful to the american jewish community but one thing that gets overlooked often -- for instance, when i'm traveling in europe, people think our whole u.s. policy is just about american politicians pandering to the american jewish community. the truth is american public opinion across the board is extremely favorable towards israel and there's something about u.s. leaders locking arms with leaders of democracies that are under siege in the region that are real pioneering free market economy, free market societies, enterprising countries like israel that's very powerful for the american public. what is your sense? >> yeah. i think that it's certainly true. no american poll signatures ever lost votes by making a visit to israel and being seen photographed and shaking hands with israeli leaders, right? the truism of americaolitics is that being close to israel, supporting israeli interests and

wooing jewish voters here back home is an extraordinarily important part of american politics in a way that is certainly isn't in europe and that's a perception that europeans have of american politics. dan, i have a policy question on iran for you, which is the romney campaign has been very critical of this president in his handling of iran, but i'm not entirely clear what romney would or could do differently when it comes to iran. >> well, i would say two things. if you look at a speech that governor romney gave in 2007 at a big security conference in israel, he laid out a pretty ambitious sanctions agenda, both economic sanctions and diplomatic sanctions that he was advocating for the u.s. government to impose on the iranian, which is far more comprehensive than the sanctions we have today. doesn't get me wrong, the sanctions we have today are important and doing damage. governor romney would say they're not strong enough.

at the time president bush was in power, he was to the right of the bush administration on the importance of putting in sweeping sanctions. he raises question, about whether or not it's too late tharkts president did drag his feet for the first couple years of his administration, didn't implement these very tough sanctions that congress was pushing. one, he's four tougher sanctions. two, he is for projecting to the iranians that the threat of military action is credible. it is not to say that we should use military force or that the israelis should use military force but it is important that the iranians believe that it is serious. no one in the world today believes that the u.s. is serious about military action. if no one else believes it, it's hard to see the iranians believe it. if you look at the extent to which administration officials have gone out of their way to say in public that if the israelis took military action, it would be a disaster for the global economy, they wouldn't be able to meet their objectives and it would provoke all sorts

of reactions that would be dangerous. that sends a message to the iranians the u.s. will do anything and everything possible to prevent military action. >> okay. jonathan martin, thanks for dropping by. j-mart, i got your e-mail, you're all set for the tickets. >> ballet tickets? >> yeah. >> we'll show you who crushed the longest home run of the season last night, a 485 foot bomb! sports coming up. major garrett is here. i've discovered gold. [ female announcer ] new roc® retinol correxion max. the power of roc® retinol is intensified with a serum. it's proven to be 4x better at smoothing lines and deep wrinkles than professional treatments. roc® max for maximum results. i bought the car because of its efficiency. i bought the car because i could eliminate gas from my budget. i don't spend money on gasoline. it's been 4,000 miles since my last trip to the gas station.

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welcome back to "morning joe." a little sports action here, russia versus germany. maria sharapova in the fourth round action in wimbledon. she would go on to win the first set the number one seed goes down 6-4-6-3 as her opponent gets her first win against sharapova. it's bad to be number one at wimbledon. >> yankees facing the ravens in st. pete. both teams had fielding issues

at the tropical storm. mark texeira to right field. hideki overruns it! allows the ball to drop. one run will score. scored tied at 3. texeira pull as buckner. the ball goes by him. the go-ahead run will go by him. >> you leave bill buckner alone. >> and that would prove the game winner. it's texeira's first error of the year. they've now lost eight in a row at top can a field. there's something in the orange juice in tampa which is hurting joe girardi's squad. >> we usually don't have the occasion to show you highlights of the 50s san diego padres but major garrett is here, a huge padres fan. it would be wrong of us not to show you the home run that maven

sent into the stratosphere last night. >> that ball hit well deep into level center field and that ball is gone! way up there. oh, my! >> stop right here, all right? cameron may habin crushes that ball. he's one of the most disappointing contracts in mujahide major league baseball. that's his fourth home run. >> when someone has to run up four, five, six rows, 485 rows. >> mike barnicle, the scout. i love it. >> well, major garrett, the aforementioned major garrett is right here and joins us for the

must-read opinion pages when we come back. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is the land of giants. ♪ home of the brave. ♪ it's where fear goes unwelcomed... ♪ and certain men... find a way to rise above.

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the new depend silhouette briefs for charity to prove how great the fit is even under a fantastic dress. the best protection now looks, fits and feels just like underwear. we invite you to get a free sample and try one on too. that looks like the white house to me. yeah, it is. okay. mika, despite the fact this morning she's in lake geneva pulling together an international accord or something or other, she has sent in some must-read opinion pages. guess who is joining us, white house correspondent for national journal major garrett is here. we have two. we have david brooks from the "new york times," hostility toward the supreme court has risen sharply since the justices

john roberts, jr. upheld the obama health care law. people are apparently angry that the court -- they will explicitly tell the country hough they wouhow they would replace it. democracy is a contest between alternatives, not a deus e deus edeus ex deus ex macna. >> i thinki five or six years o now republicans may like at justice roberts as a mad genius. he put it back into the political realm. he didn't comment on the policy. he said this is back to the

politicians and those who vote for them. second hereby got four justices to agree to putting a cap on the expansion of a commercial clause. people in the environmental movement are very concerned about this because environmental regulation is often moved under the commerce clause. roberts now put a lid on that. he's also given the courts im a imprimatur for the first time cannot be hauled in because they're saying you changed the rule. that's a significant change in the way the federal government either intimidates or lobbies states to do what they want it to do. it could affect this relationship between the states and federal government going forward and conservatives will probably over time, if that happens, cheer that change. so i would say on those three contours at least, roberts has done something that may not be

sufficiently appreciated by conservatives now but may over time. >> katty, i realize that our politics are extremely poisoned and have been for quite some time, but the left of animosity that's been exhibited toward chief justice roberts in the last four, five days has been way over the top i think to my eye and maybe the eyesf people looking at this this evening from a moderate point of view. >> right. and i think major is hinting at something that we're going to start seeing from now on, which is not just that it's liberals who are furious at justice roberts -- i mean, not just conservatives but you're going to start getting liberals suggesting that actually he has curtailed the expansion of the social welfare net in the future to such an extent that they're furious as well. a front page story on political this morning suggests people on the left saying wait a second, maybe we were wrong to lionize

robert because of the early health care ruling. what he's done is so much more important to the conservative movement that it's starting to sink in with them that this might not be the guy they thought he was when he first came out with the health care ruling. this is someone who is a fortress who can't be breached and he's chosen it because he need as respite from all the attacks. but it's been extremely controversial. >> keith hennessey -- a strategy to undo obama care. now that the supreme court has ruled, how do we get from here to repeal and replace? repeal and replacement should be separate legislative efforts. this will allow more opportunities to create bipartisan center right coalitions. piecemeal reform does not mean incremental reform. the preobamacare status quo is unsustainable and unacceptable

and they must be as bold in pursuit of health care reform as president obama was in his pursuit of government control. so the romney campaign, what you keep hearing is, it's not new, what's your alternatives? >> he's talked about a series of reforms with regard to the tax treatment of insurance plans, with regard to expanding access across state lines. he's pushing a more consumer focused health care reform agenda. i got to tell you the debate right now is i respectfully disagree with keith, who know as lot and knows how who move forward strategically, he worked on the hill for a number years so he's a clever legislative strategist. but we're not a legislative strategy now. we're having a debate in this country about obamacare and now that it's been validated by the supreme court, which is where the focus should be. >> there's the biggest story. "u.s. factory output at lowest for three years."

major, can you stay with us? >> absolutely. >> i'm so relieved. >> mark thinks those manufacturing numbers are the big story to watch. >> mark is always right. that's why he's here. >> leading to friday's unemployment numbers. >> speaking of "the financial times," we'll talk to gillian tett, just back from the aspen ideas festival where her head probably exploded. and we'll have an all-star panel of presidential historians. we'll be back in a moment. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination...

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it's a beautiful picture of downtown fresno, california -- oh, no. washington, d.c. with the old monument and lincoln memorial, where it's going to be like 98 degrees today in washington. we'll be getting to that topic, global warming, in a couple of minutes. welcome back to "morning joe." katty kay in washington. also in washington, pulitzer prize winner and nbc political analyst, wearing a shirt and a tie -- it's too hot to be wearing a shirt and tie today,

gene. what are you doing? >> we didn't lose power in the storm. it's nice and cool in my house. i can put on a tie and drive right over. >> you're going to have a lot of people showing up at your house in about 15 minutes. >> exactly. >> let's get a couple of tidbits from the news. a new pole from cnn opinion research poll shows mitt romney and barack obama in a closely contested fight for the presidency. the poll finds president obama leading mitt romney 49% to 46% but a survey of 15 key battleground states tell a different story. mitt romney ahead there by a wide margin, 51% to 43%. that stands in contrast to last week's nbc news/wall street journal poll showing president obama in the lead by 8 points. cnn polled missouri, arizona and indiana, hence romney's margin. the cnn/orc poll shows the country is deeply divided in the supreme court's ruling to uphold

president obama's health care bill with 50% agreeing with the justices' decision while 49% disagree. 52% of those polled favored most or all of the parts of the affordable care act. >> the los angeles times is reporting officials from within the russian government are skeptical of a mitt romney presidency following recent comments made by romney on russia. an ally of president vladimir putin says we don't think for us romney will an easy partner, we think romney will be on the rhetorical side a replay of of the bush administration. i'm afraid he may choose the neocon-type people. we turn now for a comment on that. what are they talking about? >> i think -- >> what is their fear? >> their fear i think is governor romney's critique of the failure of the obama

administration's recess. there was a lot of talk about the reset policy with russia. i think people on both sides of the aisle will agree at worst it's been a failure, at best it's been seriously challenged. we have not been able to get the syrians to cooperate with us at all in ending the bloodshed in syria. >> what was the reset? >> it was we were going to bend over back yards to mend relations with medvedev, we will subordinate issues where we've had disagreement to focus on rebuilding a very strong cooperative relationship. it takes two to cooperate. they've opposed us on syria, they have openly snubbed the president of the united states, not showing up to the g8 summit in chicago. so i think what they're responding to is governor romney

saying let's have a real serious, sobering discussion, reset has been a failure. >> and romney was critical of obama's relationship with putin, giving as you sneak peek into how the romney administration ght deal with russia. >> this is to russia, our number one geopolitical foe. they fight every cause for the world's worst act oorks the idea that he has more flex incumbeibr russia is very trouble some. >> we're talking about iran, syria, any number of humanitarian crises around the world, they act together in concert. romney, whether it's china, who he said he'll have a strong talking to and calling russia,

our number one geopolitical foe, how is he going to have a relationship with those two countries and get them to move on the issue of our day if he has such an aggressive and hostile relationship with them. >> in the case of russia, just to provide context, he has said the biggest threat to the united states right now and to the western world is the prospect of an iranian nuclear weapons program. with regard to russia, he said among the great powers, they are the ones most consistently working with our interests around the world. two, he simply believes that if you want to -- there a number of ways to move the russians and the russians are the real problems, particularly as it relates to iran and syria, that actually bending over backwards to appeal to them and to try to win them over and all sweetness and light and everything's fine has failed. >> sweetness and light -- >> it's an empirical fact. you may not agree with the

romney prescription but putin snubbing obama but not showing up to the g8 and to the degree that it was supposed to move russia and medvedev, it hasn't worked. >> there has been a tit for tat between putin and president obama not attending events, this has been bilateral snubbing. >> i would argue the president has gone out of his way to appeal to the russians. we worked very hard to build things back up with medvedev and putin completely corrupts this last election and takes over. he's gotten nothing by this strong appeal and winning them over. >> so far we said netanyahu

once, putin apparently once, obama reelected. i've asked to you generalize about an entire continent. who is europe cheering for this this election? >> who is europe cheering for? somebody who can deal with greece, someone who can bail out greek debts and spanish banks. europe, if they had a primary and they wanted one in 2008, they'd have voted for obama. some of the bloom has gone off the relationship but on the whole they would think that obama was somebody they know, be they feel they can deal with, somebody who is more in line with european social democratic values and i think they are slightly alarmed by what they hear out of the romney campaign when it comes to things like iran and now russia. i would love to know from dan whether he agrees with governor romney that russia is the number one geopolitical foe of the united states.

>> i agree that russia, among the great powers in the world, is working most strategically to advance its own interests at the expense of ours. and in the case of trying to get a resolution in syria -- let me fin, the question. what he said was that the biggest threat facing the united states in the west today is the prospect of iran getting a nuclear bomb. what he also said in terms of the geopolitical ecosystem and great powers that are working against us, systematically and t strategically working against us, russia is number one. can you think of another power in the world in the biggest crises we're facing in places like syria, can you think of another country that's working more systematically against us? if russia were taken off the table and were beingcooperati

cooperative, don't you think we could get resolution on serious? >> i think that doesn't make it the number one geopolitical foe. i think that, you know, you could point to north korea as more of a problem, you could point to iran being a problem -- >> i'm talking about among the great powers in the world, though, which country is working more against our interests than russia? >> probably ireland. >> we all agree the economy is going to be the big issue but it clear to governor romney on israel, russia, china, a range of foreign policyish us issues, trying to make a case about the foreign policy management. is that a political issue for him sp. >> probably not. they'll make the case as an embroidery to a larger indictment against the president. >> how do they connect, the rhetoric on the romney campaign? >> that he's not strong.

that he's weak as a fiscal and economic manager and at the margins he's weak on foreign policy and asserting u.s. strength. but, dan, i want to ask you this, let's talk about the two pillars of the obama approach to russia. would romney in elected president undo the new start and would he reverse those -- >> i think he would revisit those decisions. i can't be prescriptive on what the actual outcome was but it would be in the context of a reset of the reset. that heelieves let's have a serious, sober discussion about where we are in this relationship with russia, what we have gotten -- we've given a lot from my discussion earlier with alex, we've given a lot, what have we gotten. i think in the context of the reset some of the issues you're

citing would be revisited. >> as rare as a unicorn, we have breaking political news on a holiday week, which is a new ad from the obama campaign. >> breaking news? >> it's not breaking news, it's new. >> unicorn level? >> on in battle ground states. we're going to teak a look at it. it's what i like to call a goofus versus gallant spot on outsourcing. >> what a president believes matters. mitt romney's companies were pioneers in outsourcing u.s. jobs to low wage countries. he supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. president obama believes in insourcing. he fought to save the u.s. auto industry and favors tax cuts for companies that bring jobs home. outsourcing versus insourcing. it matters. >> i'm barack obama and i approve this message. >> gene, as a matter of campaign ad artistry, how effective do you think that is? >> well, i think it's pretty

effective. polling shows that the bain attacks, for example, have made some inroads, have had some effect on romney kind of taking his support down in some of these battleground states. that's what some polling shows. and so i think that the president and his team think they've found something that -- not a winning strategy in this alone but something that's effective for them. they're going to keep pushing it. can i toss in one quick comment on that previous discussion about russia and china. great powers act in their own interest, dan. that's what russia is doing and that's what china is doing, too. i don't think you could say china has been terribly cooperative with u.s. interests and/or will it be next year. so, you know, the idea that you can just bolster russia and

syria into doing what we want is unrealistic. >> gene, it's only fair for you to also concede that it's unrealistic to just say everything's fine when clearly everything is not fine. when 14,000 syrians are dead on the streets of damascus and other parts of syria and we're trying to resolve it and the russians are standing in our way, you can't simply say everything is fine in our relationship with russia, the reset has been a success. >> no, absolutely everything is not fine. but the reset has not succeeded in moving russia on syria or on a range of issue, nor do i think kind of yelling at putin about being some sort of foe is actually going to work either. >> you know, fine, not fine, reset, not reset, putin, the russian, one thing we should remember, especially on the eve of our greatest american poll

d -- holiday, is we cannot seasoned the marines to syria. we have no money to spend on furthering encouragements to the middle east and we ought to take a moment to figure out who we are in the world, which is what i think both campaignsre trying to do and applaud the american military. our greatest ambassadors, each and every day for what they do around the globe in peace and in war. with that said, with that said, let's now turn to the fact that gene robinson is the only human being in metropolitan washington who has power in his home. and today -- >> put the coffee on. >> and they're lining up down the block to get into gene's house to power up their cell phones. but today in "the washington post" gene is writing with b it in column "feeling the heat." i'm obliged to to insert the

disclaimer that no one event, no heat wave, no hurricane, no outbreak of tornadoes are freakish storms can be definitively blamed on on global warming. the problem for those who dismiss claim at change is that the data is beginning to add up. where are you going with this? >> it's consistent with all the predictions that not only with things get warmer but we'd have more extreme weather events, all-time heat records in the worst heat wave in at least a century, unprecedented fires in colorado, the worst they've ever seen destroying hundreds of homes because of lingering drought, because of changed

rainfall and snowfall patterns, growing seasons for farmers all screwed up and these freakish storms of a kind that no one can remember that we've ever seen in washington. again, weather vars, it's kind of random in that sense but look at it over time, nine of the ten warmest years that have ever been recorded have been since 2000. that says something. >> you know, gene, we're lucky, we're fortuna to have here on our set a man who can explain why over the weekend we had hail coming down bigger than canned hams and it's our rest didn't weather expert bill karins. bill, tell us, what is going on? according to gene robinson, last ten years, hottest summers ever? >> if you read gene's piece, i just got done reading it, you can't argue the fact we've been in a warming trend over the last 10 or 15 years.

the scientists don't have this big scheme and plot to confuse us. you can't argue that anymore. the key piece that gene asked and the question is is why might this be happening. you mentioned carbon dioxide, that's where the argument is in this conversation right now. some people say we've also had ice ages, in the 30s we have h the drght bowl and dust bowl and temperatures were all-time record highs in the middle of our country here before we were through the industrial revolution. that's where the conversation is right now, a lot of people just haven't been convinced it's the suvs, it's the coal factories and carbon dioxide that is the reason for the climate change. if that is the reason, what are we going to do? are people going to give up their power? we can't give up our ac and electricity and stuff like that.

>> you know, i'm not going to turn off the ac. i'm not going to do it, i'm sorry. bill karins, you got to go, i appreciate it. major garrett, stay cool, man. >> thank you. thanks for the padre highlights. >> you're welcome. gene robinson, stick around if you can, okay? did he say yes? >> yes. >> for you. >> he mumbled. >> up next, "the financial times" gillian tett just back from the aspen idea conference is here with lots of ideas. today, we stand against the tyranny of single mileredit cards. battle speech right? may i? [ horse neighs ] for too long, people have settled for single miles. with the capital one venture card,

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joining us now, just back

from the aspen idea festival, she interview larry summers. we'll get to that in ta minute. your story in the ft, hunk story "u.s. factory output at lowest for three years. >> we really are trapped in "ground hog's day." we had the last two years where we started the year with the economy looking better, and one starts to relax and thinks maybe we're get back into proper recovery mode and once again the news says the recovery is in danger of grounding to a halt in america. that's very bad news, not just for consumers but for the president as well. >> and for governor romney's campaign -- it's actually an epic economic tease, as gillian just alluded to.

housing is starting to come back and then housing is not coming back, consumer credit is okay, and then it's not okay. pretty good fodder. >> eurozone crisis is in bad shape. then it's being resolved. and then more uncertainty coming out of europe. what was the buzz at the aspen festival about the eurozone? is it because of the deal that merkel did it's beyond us? it bought us a few months? >> the eurozone is like a soap opera, it's like a dating show where you have a couple that is on again, off again, on again, off again. people said things were getting better. i asked larry summers about whether he thought things were getting resolved and he said it's far too early to be optimistic. people are concerned we're going to carry on with this grinding war of attrition over the

eurozone, which won't be good for europe either. >> late last week when there was the latest and supposedly a compromise in the eurozone, did angela merkel blink? is that what it amounts to? >> she blinked a little bit but not enough to really resolve this yet. the fundamental question dogging the eurozone is will the rest of the eurozone become like the germans or will the germans accept the fact they're going to have to accommodate the itali s italians? that's a real problem because at the moment it's still very unclear the degree to which the rest of the continent is willing to accept the vision of austerity and discipline. >> gene, you're writing today about obviously a terrible situation for so many people when metropolitan washington, we've been reading poll numbers about the back and forth and the battleground states and everything and yet it could well be that events inle lisbon and

elsewhere in europe could tilt the election come november. >> it's absolutely possible and there's nothing either candidate can do about it really. i guess president obama can keep sweet talking angela merkel about let's get in there and fix this or at least hold it together for a while. what's happening in europe is really fascinating. i was curious on gillian's view, they kick the can a little bit down the road, is there a chance they can keep kicking the can and if you start to get a bit of economic recovery, does that make things better or does that not ameliorate the kind of fundamental problem that the european union has? >> well, obviously if there was economic recovery, it would reduce the pressure and the sense of panic both in the

market and amongst policy makers. the real issue is the european leaders have been kicking the can down the road for two or three years because they were hope it would go things would happen. firstly, that as time passed consensus would gradually come out across the eurozone and make it easier to make those tough decisions. and, secondly, they were absolutely hoping for that recovery to come and reduce the economic pressure. the tragedy is that neither of those bets have turned out to be correct in the last two years. and we've had a growing fracture and this terrible stagnation. we've just seen showing the u.s. unemployment is at 11.1%, that is a record high. and that's the average. in places like spain, you've got a quarter of the population technically out of work. that is terrifying. >> youth unemployment in spain is something like 50%. >> absolutely. just terrifying numbers. >> when you talk about a sister soldier moment for all of europe coming together and assessing this is the reality, germany

will have to pick up the tab, because i relate everything back to soccer, the euro cup, the germany-greece game which was so rife with tension, it seems like the economic crisis exacerbated preexisting tensions within countries. is it not just completely rose tinted to have a view that europe is somehow going to be able to come together throughout all of this? >> here is a terrible tragedy of what's happening right now. this project, the single currency project, was launched to try to heal the wounds of world war ii and to stop the germans from being angry with the greeks and it's actually reopening the wounds of world war ii. i was over in austria last week. if you read the popular press and see what people are saying now about each other, it pretty ugly in places. >> gene used the phrase "lack of

leadership" on an international scale. you keep hearing that over and over and over again from various people. do you think there's a possibility in the course of this domestic campaign here that the lack of leadership on a global level and apparently there is some and everything looks to the united states, would have any impact at all on domestic politics here? why isn't president obama or why hasn't governor romney speaking more assertively about the eurozone and the difficulties there? >> i think people want to be led and they want someone who has a vision for overseas a a vision here at home. i think the debate will be as important as any we've had on a presidential level. president obama's new ad today is mostly about criticizing governor romney, a little bit about the bailout a a little about the future. but not a lot about the future. the opportunity is there for either of them to step forward and say here's where i will

lead, not just here's what's wrong with the other guys. >> if you think back to the asian financial crisis in the 90s, had you the so-called commit to save the world of american leaders trying to provide leadership in terms of intervening and resolving it. i had a number of these so-called committee around for dinner and we were talking about this issue, could you actually do that again if the eurozone and the answer is probably not because dynamics are difference but also american self-confidence and leadership is much lower today. >> you renks the lingering fear and pair foia about world war ii in germany is interesting because can you sort of sense that when you are in europe, this german thing. >> absolutely. the tragedy right now is that what's really needed in the eurozone is the german equivalent of a marshall plan. just like the americans stepped in after world war ii and used a lot of their own money to help

provide germany, even though it didn't look like it was going to produce an immediate payoff, you need germany to step up and sap we will help even though it may not produce an immediate payoff, it going to be good for the common good. if you went to the german electorate today and said would you support a german marshall plan, they would almost certainlyly be note. the american marshall plan was created witho their permission or twitter. >> the same people weren't negative on the marshall plan? >> that would be a cool dinner party, the committee that saved the world over for dinner. >> the alumni. the alumni reunion of the committee that saved the world. >> gene, they could go to your house, too, because you have power, right? >> they could come on in, save our whole neighborhood.

>> gene robinson, thanks. gillian, stay with us. still ahead, we're going to talk to celebrity chef marcus am ulsson and tim cider, who wrote a great piece this weekend saying life is too short to be too busy. keep it right here on "morning joe." [ buzz ] off to work! did you know honey nut cheerios is america's favorite cereal? oh, you're good! hey, did you know that honey nut cheerios is... oh you too! ooh, hey america's favorite cereal is... honey nut cheerios ok then off to iceland!

oh, my god. steve miller bringing us in. oh -- bly joel. >> get out of here! >> i'm sticking with music after the 90s. >> long-time kangman charlie rangel is again fighting for his life. he saw his lead drop to just 802 votes over the weekend.

15% of precincts reported a low count of zero on election night. the votes have been properly counted. rangel is already gearing up for a legal fight e-mailing supporters for donations to secure his victory through the courts. more than 2,000 absentee ballots are waiting to be counted. it's being called a phantom election. interesting to look at the numbers. 56% of the district voted against charlie rangel so they obviously want some new blood and leadership after 40 years. michael bloomberg calling the new york city election process it's about as corruptible a system as anybody can design. the board of electorate is an incompetent board.

there's risk of alienating consistencies. the last this evening people want to see is differente et ethnicities behind different leaders. a lot of leaders will be quiet and don't want to step in any of these treacherous waters. >> we'll find out soon as soon as they count the numbers. >> coming up, details on how details in the field inspired his new novel. [ male announcer ] every day, the world gets more complex.

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the extraordinary special ops folks who honored that promise. they're america's professionals. success demands secrecy. but i will say this -- like all of you, they could have chosen a life of ease, but like you they volunteered. they chose to serve in a time of war, knowing they could be sent into harm's way. they trained for years, they're battle hardened, they practiced tirelessly for this mission. and when i gave the order, they were ready. >> that's president obama honoring the seal team 6 members who risked their lives in the raid to kill osama blad i don't know. -- bin laden. don mann is out with a new novel "hunt the wolf." how does the navy find the type

of men they find to do what seals do? >> well, you know, right now there's more people who want to be seals than we have room for in the seal teams. it's a great job. it's probably the best job in the world. i mean, you get to train with some of the best troops in the world, run, swim, dive, parachute, travel all over the world and travel across the country. >> you make it sound like a vacation. the training is rigorous, it's hellish. like you said, americans line up to do it willingly to defend their country. right. and the training is difficult. it's very challenging but it's what the guys want. the guys we get coming in, they want to be challenged, they want to be pushed. you know, some get pushed more than they can handle and they get washed out. so the guy who is stay and we can push them as hard as we can and they don't quit, those are the guys you want in the field

team. >> they look like coffins, these guys get in it and they go through the waters and just have a little guide right here but, again, filled up with ice cold water. they just -- pitch black. it's just remarkable what they do. >> as don knows, they weed people out pretty quickly. for all the new attention seals have gotten because of the bin laden raid, you're still going to weed out the people who aren't quite prepared for what lies ahead of them. the thing that strikes me talking to navy seals is the modesty, the humility they have. talking to some of them not long ago about this bin laden raid and they said for all the attention it got, it was a pretty routine operation, as our operations go. they said there were probably six or seven of that same type operation happening that very night somewhere in afghanistan. they did say the one difference was racing to the border to

outrun pakistani jets. >> that's a problem. >> but guys don't talk about what they do obviously for security reasons but also because it's just business as usual. >> that's true. and training seals, not training people to be seals, but once the seals come to the team and training them, when you set up training missions, it is much, much more difficult, the training they go through, than it was for the bin laden ops. for instance, they would come out, a boat going down, a truck going down, it's just part of training. coming up to a wall that's got to be breached, it can't be breached here, has to be breached somewhere else, a lady coming up with a suicide vest would be part of the training, having a sniper come up on the side of you. alof these are contingencies they have to deal with. when they did the raid, very little resistance.

it was easier than most of the training missions they were used to doing. >> the missions that seals encounter across the globe, talk about, if you can, the impact it has on families. i mean, you're gone, you're out of the country in clearly dangerous situations. your family knows it, your wife know it is. you're gone for a substantial period of time every year. talk about the impact it has on families. >> it takes a big toll on the family. they're gone usually 300 or so days a year. when they're home they're still at work training. so they're deployed quite often. the buzzer will go off, they'll have to be deployed in the middle of of the night and they really can't tell the wives or family where they're going, how long they're going to be gone. the kid are growing up not really knowing the dad. 60 days a year, you don't really get to know your dad. when you come home, you can't really talk about what you've done. the wives, the mothers are

trying to raise the families alone. it takes a huge toll. and also they know how dangerous it is. people don't come home, they come home wounded, without limbs. it's not just the field team but the military across the board. it's very, very tough on families. >> don was a seal for 17 years. he's written this book, reminds me of david ignatius. i said, david, why do you always write in fiction? he said because i can give people a lot more of the feel for what's really going on out there if i write in fiction than non-fiction because you don't want to reveal all the details. >> and "hunt the wolf," less than an hour after the attack as rescuers fought through smoke and nauseating smell of burnt human flesh to search for victims, the president of the united states and king of

morocco issued a joint statement calling it a heinous crime against both their countries. "the washington post" called it the worst terrorist attack against americans since 9/11. tell us about how the book relates to real life situations that the seals confront and how you're able to intertwine them. >>" hunt the wolf" was loosely based on world events. it doesn't come close to letting out government or military secrets. the characters in the book are based on real seals that i have a great deal of respect and admiration for. the guys doing the operations, you see how they prepare, train for the missions. some go well and some don't go so well. it's like the real rld, the fiction, the story we put in here. it's in the middle east and it's

loosely based on real world events and there's an adventure theme to it, too, climbing mountains. we're trying to keep the same characters, adventure themes and real world seal events fictionalized. >> "hunt the wolf." don mann, thank you so much for coming in this morning. >> thank you for coming in and thank you for your service to this country. >> much more "morning joe" in just a moment. let's do this i am from baltimore south carolina... bloomington, california... austin, texas... we are all here to represent the country we love this is for everyone back home across america,

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>> welcome back to "morning joe". many americans continue to struggle to find a job, but for veteran veterans the situation is especially grand. lewis went down to wall street to find out how the financial sector is stepping up to help america's heroes. >> over a million american service men and women will return from active duty and many will have nowhere to work.

>> so many of us are back and it's such a challenge to be able to transition. >> combat veteran was just 20 when deployed from iraq. holeman served for eight years as one of the youngest squad leaders. 2.4 million at the moment. he came home to face a new enemy. an unemployment rate higher than the national average. >> it is difficult to come home. >> this is a decorated combat vet. >> i think one of the biggest challenges that i have is finding community. they don't know what you saw, did, and experienced. >> the wall street war fighters

creates a bridge between the war zone and war force. bringing them to corporate america to win back our future. >> it's the intangibles that the vets are bringing to the table. you can't teach that. i can't teach someone how to react. >> all of the things that make a military unit successful translate extremely well. >> programs like this are really important because it's not just about placement but how do we provide mentorship and support. >> this is the most important thing i have done in my career. >> this is the managing director at j.p. morgan chase who has been through dozens of wounded veterans. >> there is four pillars to the program. resume writing, interviewing, networking and mentoring. >> michael has been a phenomenal mentor. he has introduced me to many

people and is guiding me. >> the sergeant is now an associate in j.p. morgan's legal department. >> it has been important to me to have a mission, have a goal, have a new unit to work with. >> you have a company that is looking to hire veterans. if you' ear a veteran, we have a way for you to get placed. >> this is just one of many projects to bring wounded veterans into the fold. many of the veterans are not looking for a handout but simply looking for a chance to continue to contribute. >> we need obviously more programs like this.

bigger and better programs like this. >> what's interesting is the culture does not view it as a charity campaign. the israelis say these people on the battlefield have learned tremendous skills. they are real leaders and managers. we need them in the private sector. the difference between israel and here is literacy. most businesses are literate about how to read a military resume. they understand some who served in the 101st airborne in 2003 probably developed these skills. >> critical skills. >> that was a well done piece. >> great job, lewis. >> up next, the busy trap.

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coast. back with us on set? mark, alex and in washington, katty. >> we got to begin with mark, something you just heard. eric yesterday, romney senior advisor with only chuck todd indicated that the whole health care thing is not a tax. well, why don't we just clear this thing up and here is what eric said right here. >> the governor believes that what we put in place in massachusetts was a penalty and he 'tis agrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. >> so he agrees with the president that it is not -- and he believes that you should not call the tax penalty a tax, you should call it a penalty or a fee or a fine? >> do what?

>> you know, i think that is the only position they they cough taken that some republicans are criticizing. eric should not have gone so far to enunciate. he should einnocenceuate the broad areas of agreement with other republicans on the going after obama care and say look it's up to the president to say you think it's a constitutional tax or fee or penalty of some sort? had congress been in session, there would have been a lot of reverberation. they agree, repeal obama care. it has other taxes in it.

>> no congressional democrats are going to campaign on a vote for obama care, even now. yesterday was a complicated day, i think i will balance any day and that is probably a good day for the romney campaign and not for the obama campaign. >> he tsh. >> yes. is that -- i would think that is something that -- tuesday was a mistake. >> what could he have said? the campaign does not want to say that they think the health care was a mandate. i think he cough found a way to not answer your question. >> look, the question is let the obama administration decide.

what is it? a constitutional tax or unconstitutional penalty. >> david axelrod jumped. that would touch less than 1% of americans. any ripple effect you have heard of from washington from the two campaigns? >> clearly the people in chicago leapt on this as fast as they could. they love the discrepancy. when dan said this is a complicated day, the white house thinks it was a good day for them. i think the bigger question is whether voter's minds are going

be changed over the discussion whether this was a tax or a penalty. minds had not changed very much on the actual health care act. i find it hard to believe that people are going to be passing that much. okay, you know, now i don't like the health care act because there is a tax involved in it. those people didn't like the health care act anyway. i'm not sure minds are going to be changed by the ruling or by the issue. >> she is absolutely right. the reality, as i said earlier -- >> we're in the business of mindless weeding. it's -- we're talking about obama care every day. >> i'm out of here.

has the adversity to some degree been lifted on obama care? i do think as you get the insurance checks in the mail and you understand that you kid can stay on your insurance and you will be covered for pre-existing conditions. when the american public has a real world interaction. that is a lot slower and harder to full. >> romney must go after health care and keep talking about held care.

it's a great issue. you don't see a lot of democrats with the exception of nancy pelosi saying let's go to the american people and make this a referendum on whether obama care is good. >> what i do see happening is continuing dialogue and commentary on the conduct of the romney campaign. murdoch became a bezerk tweeter over the weekend. >> like you, mike? >> all the time. and hired some real pros. doubtful. yesterday, those concerns were echoed by former ceo jack welch.

he tweeted hope mitt romney is listening to murdoch advice. playing in league with chicago nols. no room for amateurs. >> they're going to add more people. they are still a pretty small operation. and they have won a campaign but i don't think there are too many people who said they have run a butch better campaign than the romney campaign.

>> and then new people they have brought on. it is actually a pretty good mix around the table. >> that balance is pretty similar. there is nothing -- actually asking for specific names, what some of these people from the sidelines would propose. >> or specific mistakes they have made. >> we came out of the primary season assuming that mitt romney had been damaged by a long and difficult primary season. all of the numbers are going to be close because of the state of the american economy and he didn't come out looking particularly good. actually look at all the poll numbers in those swing states he

seems to be doing good. >> right on the money. >> came with your a game today. we appreciate that. i am a complete dunce cap when it comes to this stuff. >> joining us by phone now. it's kind of early to be out on the old jet ski but what's he doing? >> he is probably up and around. about 30 folks staying at his house right now on the lake. they would say about a third of the town is part of the romney

family or the press corps. >> take us behind the scenes. we are seeing a lot of pictures from this holiday. are they letting reporters get these pictures? or are you enterprisingly getting them? >> a little from both. when the romney folks come into town, you couldn't stage a photo as good as some of the photos taken last night. they came into town to get ice cream as a family. an enterprising reporter was cutting through town and stopped to take the shots. and you are seeing water front shots. his house is way back into this cove that you can't get anywhere near on land. they bought up some of the land around it.

there is no aggressive push back. >> you know, the big secret to this whole weekend may be that there is no big secret. it's really by all accounts been a family weekend. they went to church on sunday. the kids and grandkids fishing. no sign of vp short listers this weekend. we're all looking ahead. it's worth keeping in mind that we had this out of utah where

anybody who is on the short list was in one place already and wouldn't have had to sneak around about doing with it. >> garrett is going to go to the ihop and have breakfast. >> that is not as light a lift as they look like. >> the great shots yesterday. those are terrific pictures of the family. back to the campaign numbers.

>> the poll finds president obama leaving mitt romney 49 to 46%. the survey of 15 key battleground states told a different story. 51 to 43%. that stands in contrast to last week's nbc news wall street journal. cnn polls missouri, arizona, and indiana. the cnn orc poll shows the country is deeply divided in the supreme court's ruling to uphold health care. >> okay. mitt romney plans to visit israel later this summer but we want to talk about the numbers. what is going on with two

different polls? >> it's like a bet at the horse race. as you said, if you include missouri, indiana, and arizona, you will jack up the numbers. that's a real danger for him. hard to go from 45 to get to 50 and the president will need about 50% to win the election. today they are pretty close. but again, it's less who is behind because you got a margin of error than it is the president being short. >> especially when you consider the undecideds in a race like this will typically break. so if there are some real undecided and you assume some of

these close states that people are undecided right up until the election, they will probably break for the challenger. >> coming up, the busy trap. why so many of us complain about being crazy busy every day and why it's almost entirely our fault. a reality check. also, former top chef judge takes us inside his life story. a remarkable journey that begins in ethiopia and continues today in manhattan, owning and operating one of the hottest restaurants. but first, we have to do this. bill karins with a check of the forecast. >> we can rewrite that contract any time you want. we are looking at very warm conditions. that has not changed. the award for the worstwetter in the couny right now? right over the top of detroit. the good news is the clouds and the rain will keep you cooler today. your friends also dealing with those storms.

really the only stormy spot in the country right now, the pacific northwest. it was only in the 60s in seattle. the rest of the nation we continue to be very hot. the so-called heat dome goes all the way through salt lake city, denver, and more. and you notice the 90s all the way to the east coast. not many spots that are avoiding the heat. a little more moisture available for the eastern sea board. so it's going to be a close call. hopefully your fireworks display will go off just fine. want to wish everyone a happy safe fourth of july. temperatures say new york city is right around 91. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550

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>> i do the list. take them to school. look nice all day. wait around at park. number two, keep my head above water at rk. >> are you running late this morning? >> i have two choices here.

number three, spend more time with richard. >> you must be completely exhausted. >> not completely. number four. the kids. kindergarten bake sale. christmas lights, birthday party. >> i don't know how you do it? >> i don't know how she does it. >> all those children. >> i have four. >> yeah, but two are twins. >> that was sarah jessica parker in the comedy," i don't know how shedoes it," but do we have ourselves to blame for being busy every day. if you live in america, you have probably had to listen to a lot of people tell you how busy they are.

it is a boast disguised as a complaint. it is a reassurance. obviously your life cannot be silly, trivial or meaningly if you are so busy. i can't help but wonder whether all this hisry onic exhaustion is not a way of covering up the fact that most of what we do doesn't matter. tim, i have to tell you, i was reading the sunday times, i read your piece and i was so thrilled because one of my favorite things to do is sit on my front porch and do nothing other than stare at a 110-year-old elm tree in my front yard and i feel guilty about doing it but i wonderful inside. >> my editor told me one time. he is an editor of the times and he has got a wife and child. and i asked him what did you do? and he said i watched it get

dark outside. he sounded like he really enjoyed it. >> as soon as the plane lands, the cell phones get turned on. i wonder what do these people do before the creation of cell phones. were they always this busy or important? that's what this piece gets to. >> the dc new york corridor is maybe the capital of busyness. i think, all of that cell phone talking is a way of reassuring yourself that you're indispensable. not that people have to hear from you but you need to feel that they have to hear from you. nobody is indispensable. >> one of the things that i find in my own life is constantly checking on social networking,

whether it be twitter, sometimes facebook. and that adds to my degree of busyness. i feel i am busy because i'm on the twitter, i'm trying to report on the twitter. is that just coming 140 characters, does that prohibit me from understanding deeper and denser things going on around me? >> somebody was telling me last night that they read that stuff triggers the same chemicals in your brain as other addictions like drinking and smoking. information can be an addiction. >> i think being immersed in what used to be a 24 hour news cycle and now its seconds in length, prohibits you from getting distance and seeing the bigger picture. you need to be immersed in the world in order to understand it but i don't think you can

organize the thoughts. >> what can we do for the next 48 hours to be and seem less busy? >> maybe everybody should call in today? it's not 9:00 yet. >> you know, tim, another thought that i had while reading your piece after i finished staring at the elm tree on sunday is the problem -- i think there might be more than a problem. it might be a real dilemma for parents in they ty inflict their own busyness more and more on children. we have them programmed from the age of 5, 6, and 7, tutors and this and that. there is not a moment in their day where they can sit and spin a top or play catch or go something that is not arranged for them. there is something really bothersome about all of this that we cater to kids in terms

of creating capsules of time for them to be involved with. >> i know how furious people get when you second guess their parenting but as a former child. school seemed like a crushing bore and a waste of time. the hours you really valued were the hours you had to yourself. unstructured and unsoup vised. and sometimes you made good use of that time and sometimes you squandered it throwing dirt clods at each other. i think that goofing off is really crucial. >> i couldn't agree more. when i was growing up, i had hours and hours of free time to do nothing. my parents tint schedule anything for me. what i used to do is i would retreat to my bedroom and write stories. when i look at my own kids now, i have to admit, where wld

they have the space to actually do that. it is quite interesting to think able the way we see the time. one impact is we are increasingly, when we vizlize time and calendar, we don't have blank spaces. we divide it into segments. we take the blocks ask say we must do this and that and that. it is very organized and segmented. >> you as young children as well. when i was a kid there were no automobiles and planes and telephones. i would get up on a summer day, get on my bike and come back about 6:30, 7:00 at night. >> my 4-year-old will pull out an ipad and start -- >> 4 years old?

>> better on the screen than talking. >> it's horrifying. >> the other thing is the discussions you have with other parents. you look at dinner. within 12 minutes, the discussion migrates to how their kids' mandarin classes or going or whether or not they are studying portuguese. i am not exaggerating. these discussions i described actually happened and then you feel like you will be reported to social services because you have not gotten your kid into the mandarin program. >> my kids are learning mandarin. they are 6 and 8. but our map is changing. >> what are we going to do here? >> i'm not in the business of giving advice or answers. it's not too late to call in today. as far as child rearing, i have no advice to give. a lot of it has to do with fear.

i think parents are more frightened for their kids than they used to be but i think the world is not any more dangerous. a late writer said it seems significant that we don't ever want things to be quiet any more with all the noise and rush, we are trying to drown something out. i don't know if there is a name for what that thing is, but it seems we are all scared of experiencing it for a few seconds. >> it could be that we are afraid of not being busy. if we are not busy, then we find out who we really are and that is what we are really afraid of. >> busy doing nothing. >> the book is we learned nothing. and the article the busy trap is online. tim, thanks very much. >> sure. >> up next, u.s. manufacturing last month contracted for the first time in years.

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>> all right. that's looking right out the

window here. right out the window at 30 rock. we have like sweet and sour. good news bad news. we will get to those and some manufacturing numbers that came up between the front pages of the financial times and wall street journal. let's get a check before the bill. scott, why don't you punch us up on both stories. >> we are certainly getting the auto numbers in. it definitely appears as though the pace of auto sales is slowing just a bit. ford and general motors obviously being larger than chrysler and that will come down to what their sales pace has been over in europe. we know it has been a problem. they have a huge presence over in europe. that is hurting general motors as well. that will be the interesting story. the other part is what was on

the front page in papers all over the country. the manufacturing data that we got yesterday was pretty ugly. it was an ugly number showing that manufacturing contracted. yesterday, it's going to come down to the data that keeps trickling in. you could make an argument that is more important than the manufacturing data because it's a bigger slice of the u.s. economy. >> the factory output numbers that you alluded to. >> that clearly is having not a very good effect on our economy. >> i think it has aood impact everywhere.

investors try to figure out whether it will be a hard or soft landing. now barely above 80 bucks a barrel. some of the more industrial metals. it all trickles down and is an impact as well. >> not just in terms of demand but also psychological. over last two or three years, what many must be thinking is even if the u.s. economy is sluggish and the euro zone is troubled, at least we can rely on emerging markets to provide a source of global demand.

we will have a really big blow. investors and businesses. and although that would sound great for the market today, we love it. that is not going to keep the trade engine going. >> don't you guys have a feeling? you know better than anybody that china data, the numbers seem to be suggesting that growth is going to come in below that 8 percent number. most of the smart people that we have been talking to, maybe 7.5%, a little below 8. under the level that you talk about. >> up next, we're going to set the table for celebrity chef.

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>> marcus, you are the winner of top chef masters. congratulatio congratulations. >> i'm going to show you your expression. when people celebrate you do this. that's how i feel right now. >> that was a clip from season two of "top chef masters" when marcus danielson was crowned the winner. ma kus shares that story in his

latest book, "yes chef" a mm woir. >> i'm a hunl fan of the show and i am excited to be here. >> can you do that thing again? >> we did that last night at our book party. there were about 300 people celebrating. >> you mention the harlem community. your restaurant is like the hottest spot in new york right now. to you it was not about creating a hot spot. you talk about being in the community and of the community. what does that mean? >> me and my wife lived in harlem for about eight years and i felt like new york city, the great incubator for so many other ideas, how come we don't have a place that people with come up to and celebrate?

honoring the past, being here for the present and being the future. it is basically a body. you can have corn bread and beer and also have a steak dinner. >> what has that meant to the community? it's important. what has it done beyond the walls of that restaurant? >> i think that, you know, the emerging market for me, yes, we talked about china and russia, but we don't understand the country as well as we understand our own inner city of america.

>> 75 people come from that community. it says, you know, if you want to be a chef, if you want to be a server, it's right here. you don't have to go downtown to do it. it's also the servers and the cooks that work there, if you're a guest, you can ask them where do i go after? >> is there another element to this what you're talking about now? the community within the restaurant? it's important in places like harlem and boston. is there another element to it. you go to parts of the inner city in terms of what people eat. >> i would say two things to that.

opportunities to narrow that. it's not -- rich communities have bad food, too, but they have better options. there is also a farmer's market and other options, right? not about just a farmer's market but affordable. it doesn't matter if you put a farmer's market in a community that doesn't know how to respond to that. i love that we have it every weekend. maybe it should be something like a farmer's bodega. that's what matters. >> you were born in ethiopia. your mother passed when you were young and you had tuberculosis when you were young. this is an amazing american

sty. what's the story behind the title? >> in the kitchen, it is humbling. the only thing is yes, chef. no matter what she or he would ask you to do. i felt like it declare -- it is a great thing to call the book. when i had the opportunity to cook for president obama, the president thanked me for dinner. he said yes chef, and everybody starred to laugh. it has a double meaning. i always go back to i'm here because of others and my parents. and i am lucky to have a window to afri to harlem and america. it's really about a diverse

background. you know, i feel privilege in that sense. >> what's the short version of the story of how a 2-year-old in ethiopia who has tuberculosis and whose mother dies now becomes a chef and turned on to cooking? >> every chef -- >> i thought it was -- >> it's a mix i haven't seen before. >> i don't know how my -- my mother walked from the village in ethiopia in the countryside into a hospital and there was a nurse that took care of us and said these kids, my mother passed away. i love my swedish mother to death but she was not a good cook. when we had dinners.

you rally are looking at a diverse american family. we ate throughout the country. and eventually to america. $300 when i came to this country. i am fortunate to be part of such an open country. we always talk about what's wrong but there is a lot of greatness in this country. >> this book is yes chef. marcus you're a great citizen. go pick up the book. it's a great story. >> thanks for having me. >> we will be back in a minute. ♪

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>> because we're nothing if no helpful. we want to give you a look at the headlines in the morning papers. the "new york times" says that military reinforcements to the persian gulf.

big story potentially. >> two kids, two labs managed to slip past security and snatch away the olympic flames. got their hands on it for just a moment before they were led away by law enforcement. >> the guardian report says that researchers are departing on a new expedition this morning. now 75 years after she disappeared over the pacific. crews will be looking for plane wreckage near a remote island where they believe she died as a cast away. >> illinois is drinking less beer than it used to. that according to my favorite think thank, the beer institute. out of the top five straits.

>> you remember, i gave a commencement address at the beer institute two or three years ago. >> best place to be. >> and what did we learn today? >> a look at your busy travel forecast. very hot conditions from the rockies all the way to the east coast. thunderstorms through the great lakes. rain in seattle. your fourth of july forecast, we're continuing to watch storms pop up. hopefully they will all die off for a fireworks display tomorrow. have a great day. at hotels.com, you'll always find the perfect hotel.

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>> okay. don't touch that dial. leave the clicker alone. >> they look great in shorts. >> thank you very much. >> i'm not going to comment on that. >> i learn that you prefer your home runs in quantity not quality. >> if kids have a hope of competing in the world, ty have got to start learning mandarin today. my 3 and 4-year-old. >> there is an astronomy magazine. >> i learned that amelia airhardt is enduring a lot. >> daily run down starts right now. >> independents day.

did president obama get a boost from the supreme court health care ruling? we're going to chew through a ton of new numbers out this morning. romney agrees with president obama that the mandate should not be caused a tax. plus we are taking a deep dive out west to meet the woman who becomes the first african-american republican woman ever elected. should be the first african-american woman elected to the house. utah voters on the verge of creating history. it's tuesday, july 3, 2012. this was a tweenor day between declaring independence and getting it pen to paper the next day. what did they do in july 3? some day we will know the fulle