slinging is sticking right back according to the poll. the president is viewed negative by 43% of the voters. it's his second worst negative rating since taking office. the worst was during the debt ceiling showdown. romney's negative rating of 40% is the worst that our poll has ever recorded for him. and it ranks him lower than john mccain in 2008, john kerry in 2004, and dole in 1996. he's likely to be the first nominee since 1996 that goes into his convention with a negative rating. bill clinton did that but he recovered. now, by big margins, the voters say the bulk of information they've received from both campaigns over the last few weeks has made them overwhelmingly favorable. and as far as we can tell, the only fully positive ads that were released in the month of july have not even been in the english language.

they were both spanish language ads. asked who is running a more negative campaign, 22% with obama, 12% picked romney. call it the likability gap, 46% of voters told us they didn't like romney personally. look at those numbers. that compares to just 31% who said the same about the president. and in fact, that gap, and the narrowing of that gap, in some other parts of our poll, of the nasty and mindful of this that the nasty campaign took, both campaigns are now out with what i would call much softer hits on each other this week. >> sometimes politics can seem very smart. but the choice you face, it couldn't be bigger. >> he tried. you tried. it's okay to make a change. >> those weren't the negative tone in ads that we were seeing two weeks ago.

the achilles' heel, "a," a resurgence of economic pessimism as job growth slowed. 27% believe the economy will get better next year. and 25% believe it will get worse. that number is up five points from a month ago. the majority of voters, 43% disapprove of how the president is handling the company. romney leads the government in improving the economy by seven points. bottom line, with the economic numbers, you could argue that the president should actually already behind. but he's not. in our poll, he continues to lead romney, 49% to 43%. i want to make a note. that while the president has technically increased his lead in the poll from last month, we're telling you it's statistically insignificant, if you reweighted it to factor in the idea of the sample from this month versus last month, the president's lead would be the

same between two and three points. we had a little more dem leading sample this month than last month. obama's overall job rating, usually the best indicator of where the president's re-election stands. it's sitting in positive territory. 49% approve. 48% disapprove. so why is the president leading if voters' perceptions about the economy are actually gets worse? we said the last 60 days would be about defining romney. who is going to control the biography. and the obama seem to be winning that game tactically. romney continues to have a hard time connecting with voters. just 42% tell us that romney has a background and set of values they can identify. 50% say that about the president. the president has a whopping 16-point lead on another values question. when asked which candidate would do a better job of looking out for the middle class. obama leads 49% to 43%. some people look at that question and think it's an

economic question. it's really is a values gut question the way the voters respond to that. now, the economy could make the president a one-term, instead of a two-stermer. the campaign is in full crouch mode in you didn't build that economic line. with the president speaking straight to camera. >> those ads taking my words about small business out of context, they're flat out wrong. of course americans build their own businesses. every day, hard-working people sacrifice to meet a payroll, create jobs and make our economy right. and what i said was, we need to stand behind them as america always has by investing in education and training. roads and bridges. >> the run in virginia, north carolina, florida and ohio and nebraska, the ad will run. today, david axelrod tried to downplay what appeared to be the campaign's hyper reaction to what had been -- apparently is a successful hit by the romney

campaign. >> and we have a saying that a hit dog barks. it sounds like you're barking. does that mean you're hit? >> i was concerned that it might be impactful. i've concluded it's not that impactful. >> the obama campaign wouldn't do this if it wasn't showing up in some of their data. by the way, there would have to be a few in boston disappointed strategically to realize just at the time the hit on obama was starting to stick, their candidate is across the pond. and he has pledged to limit the amount of criticism that the president receives. the romney campaigns holds 24, we did build this" events across the america. it lacks the lift that something like this would have. romney arrived in london, there he is. where he will begin a week-long foreign trip which will also take him to israel and poland. and of course, he'll be sitting down with brian williams later today. now, just before heading

overseas, mitt romney set the stage for this foreign trip by hammering the president over his foreign policy. in a very fiery speech before the vfw's speech in reno. romney accused the administration of leaking classified intelligence for political reasons. >> this conduct is contemptible. it retrays our national interest. it compromises our men and women in the field. and it demands a full and prompt investigation by a special council with explanation of consequence. >> we'll do something a little different here for 90 minutes. i'm going to have the panel in and out all show long, with apologies to my buddy joe. let's bring pulitzer prize winning mark and.

we'll view it now, what kind of story would it be. it wouldn't be a great one, liz, what struck me about romney's speech was when we -- we thought it was going to be the speech that he would lay out a foreign policy vision. it was not. he instead decided to pack in every criticism he could think of in the speech. he himself said i'm not going to criticize on foreign soil. it seems more political than visionary. >> absolutely. rm noi wants to make this campaign a referendum on obama. he didn't want to get out there and give the democrats a shoot-out by putting meat on their bones as an economic vision or anything like that. it's a campaign that lacks keep specifics about what he himself would do as president. and so, this was all about tearing obama down. making a referendum on him and being an acceptable alternative. >> clarence this is in your first rodeo. when you think about to other

nominees, whether running against an incumbent, not running against an incumbent. by now, we would have had the official foreign policy speech rolled out somewhere of the vision. >> right. >> are you surprised we haven't had that yet. >> yeah, and i think about the poll numbers that you just described before talking about romney's overseas trip that the polls showed romney having an advantage on the ideas question that people like his ideas better. even though he hasn't detailed his ideas. >> right. >> and obama meanwhile, there is still a problem that obama has as far as what -- well, interestingly enough, people trust him enough that he's got a very slight microscopic advantage, despite the economy. but romney sees an opening here to hammer away at that trust factor. the speech he gave gave as close to accusing the president of

treason as he can get. >> that's funny, watching mike. he had mark mckenon, and steve schmidt on the campaign. highly critical of romney's speech thought it really struck exactly the wrong tone. i was trying to figure out which swing voters they can appealing to. they clearly weren't. >> i don't know. on mitt romney, his foreign policy, people favor his foreign policy. if you look at his track record in places like libya, an elegant solution. we didn't get military involved. we came to so far what is a relatively good solution. the average voter at home isn't thinking about libya. they're going to be thinking about the economy. >> that's the thing, though, you would think under traditional circumstances, a nominee knowing that, okay, what is it the public likes about the guy i'm running against? well, they kind of like the foreign policy, they kind of like that we're pulling back our

military footprint a little bit. don't you feel surprised that he did say, this or that, but he did in a backhanded way support the policy? >> the president has been hawkish on foreign policy. you look at his successes on foreign policy. and he has had successes on foreign policy. not just bin laden. but waging secret wars that have dismantled al qaeda and such. and republicans don't have much to swing at when it comes to foreign policy. so what are they doing? they're arguing he's leaking for political purposes. >> it's very tactical. you guys are sticking around off and on the entire 80 -- what are we up to? 78 minutes left? >> i don't know. >> we've got a lot more on the supersized "the daily rundown" next. you. mitt romney didn't flip-flop on afghanistan. romney campaign senior adviser kevin madden joins me next.

plus, we're going to dig deeper into a brand-new nbc/"wall street journal" poll. we're going to let you know who the undecided voters are. there are some undecided voters. first, i'll look ahead at the president's schedule and mitt romney's schedule. the president, feels like a never ending trip, i'll be honest. he goes to the urban league where he gives a speech in new orleans. he wakes up in seattle. mitt romney, of course, is in london, and will be sitting down with brian williams on the in the nightly news. e of its effic. i bought the car because i could eliminate gas from my budget. i don't spend money on gasoline. it's been 4,000 miles since my last trip to the gas station. it's pretty great. i get a bunch of kids waving at me... giving me the thumbs up. it's always a gratifying experience.

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mitt romney has arrived in

london for the first leg of an overseas trip that will also take him to israel and poland. it's part of a strategy to strengthen his foreign policy credentials in an area where polls show he's lag the president. senior adviser, kevin madden. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> all right. i want to start with one area, yesterday's speech, it was a pretty fiery speech by governor romney. but there was one thing he said on afghanistan that caught my eye. he basically endorsed the president's policy on this. but it seems to be a change. let me play for you something that romney said back in february. on the president and timetables. >> he announced a specific date that we will end combat operations in afghanistan. telling the taliban the day that we're going to stop fighting them. you can imagine when you have an enemy telling them the day that we're going to stop fighting. i listen to the president's

directions that i think the man is so extraordinarily naive, he doesn't understand that strength and resolve must also be shown amongst terrorists and tarynists. >> with security forces by the end of 2014. >> that's an endorsement of a time line, is it not? >> well i think there's an important distinction. i think the problem that governor romney has with the policy that the obama administration has laid out, they set a calendar date for the sake of having a calendar date to pull the troops out. governor romney's thought is we want to turn the power over to the security forces when they're ready. and consistent to the advice in the council that is given from the commanders on the ground. i think the important thing to remember, with a security situation is what's going to dictate that turnover of power to the afghan security forces. versus just having a calendar. >> so why use the date?

>> he mentioned 2014 as a goal to turn over the security forces, versus just setting a specific date. irregardless of whether az a fighting situation going on. is the distinction. >> i have to say, it sounds exactly what president obama has said, which is, you know, conditions on the ground will matter in those things. you know, there's the same -- i'm trying to understand, you guys are trying to say there's a distinction. and yet it also sounds like there's not. >> no, there's an important distinction. and if you talk to a lot of the military commanders on the ground, setting that date for absolute troop withdrawal is something that they wanted to do. >> why didn't he mention the date? >> he mentioned the date as a turnover to afghan security forces but not as a political calendar. instead acres calendar for securing the situation there so we're in a much more stainless situation so you can then turn that over to the afghan security forces. >> kevin, he said he wants to

complete a successful transition by the end of 2014. >> right. >> i mean, it doesn't seem like it was sort of a possible date. that it was the end date. why say the date? >> i think the distinction is when president obama named that date he said we're going to have a troop pullout. and it didn't put enough of an emphasis. the president put the premium on the calendar, whereas, governor romney is putting the premium on the situation on the ground. >> steven schmidt called the speech, the former campaign manager of john mccain, said it was a paint-by-numbers attack speech. what do you say to that? >> i think steve has to have the entire speech. i think he laid out things specific on foreign policy. and also to offer a broader vision for the american public when making a distinction between the two can the das. i think what governor romney said, he wants to make sure we have the current to justify the strength around the globe.

i think that's the difference. president obama -- it's been a stated policy out of the obama administration, is that they prefer to lead from behind. so those are big differences that we're offering to the american public when they look at this race through the lens of foreign policy, we ask them to make that important distinction because we believe governor romney has the right posture for america. >> mike mckara. >> how are you? >> great. i want to clear up the governor's stance on iran and nuclear capabilities. does the governor support a preemptive strike against iran's nuclear capabilities? not whether he'd support israel if they did, but he'd support it art after the fact. >> house of a specific scenario, mike, i wouldn't comment on that. i do say that governor romney does believe that we have to work with our allies in that region and it's very important that we do not take the military options off the table. >> kevin, this morning, there's

reports that al qaeda is showing up in the syrian opposition against assad. governor romney has been critical of the president because he thinks there could be direct u.s. arming of the opposition. now knowing that al qaeda might be involved in the opposition to assad, would the governor still have that same policy? >> well, i don't know about the details about that particular report. but obviously, i think governor romney wants to make an important distinction between those that are good actors in that region that are offering a defense against the assad regime and fighting for the essentially consistent with the american diplomacy and foreign policy. so that would be a very obviously a very important difference on who they would support as they look to offer opposition towards the assad regime. >> kevin one last question, when you look at the economy and all the things dragging the

president down. do you know in '92, and '94, the challenger was already ahead. why aren't you ahead? >> look, it's always a mistake to take a template of another campaign and try and offer it against this one. right now, the american people are very anxious about the state of the economy. there's a great deal of negative views of washington as a whole. and the system as a whole. but i do think there's an enormous amount of opportunity in there. given the fact that governor romney has put out a better plan in the economy and is talking more about the future of the american economy and how we bring back jobs and prosperity across the american economic spectrum. but most importantly, i think that there are a lot of undecides in that poll. and those undecideds, are very negative about the president's policy. and that offers a tremendous opportunity going forward. i think it's going to be very

close all the way to the closing days. that's where i think i'll make a big difference. >> kevin, i've got to leave it there. >> thank you. >> thank you, sir. we're going to hear from the obama campaign coming up later in the show. plus, it's earning season. takes a big bite out of apple. only wall street can somehow come up with the idea that apple sells more phones but doesn't match expectation. the convoluted market rundown is next. we'll be right back. oh, i forgot the trivia question. it's the extra long edition of "the daily rundown." so there's extra long breaks. who holds the record for the longest serving speak of the house? first correct answer gets to the "daily rundown" answer and more. [ male announcer ] research suggests the health of our cells plays a key role

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a slew of earnings of out today. time for the market rundown. becky is here. look, i don't get it with apple. they sold more iphones before? >> not nearly as much. apple came in with the numbers, in a lot of metrics they were good. the earnings were several dollars below expectations. revenue came in light. the iphone numbers came in light. and there's a lot of people saying that's because they're waiting for the new version of it but that disappointment took a huge chunk out of the stock. down by 5%. that is why the nasdaq futures lower. about 20% of the overall index. you're seeing red arrows there. if you look at the dow industrials, totally different

story. we heard from caterpillar and boeing this morning. and boeing blew expectations out of the water. caterpillar talking about we really see strength in all of these different economies around the world. that's why the dow is up by 80 points it's a tale of two markets today, chuck. >> thanks, becky. in the new poll, why voter enthusiasm is down overall for the election, and which group is with those just not interested in the race. plus, an in-depth look at the who the undecideds are. >> and a programming note, brian williams will have an exclusive interview with mitt romney tonight from london. we'll be right back with more of the supersize "daily rundown" back on msnbc. ♪ i want to win [ breathes deeply ] ♪ this is where the dream begins ♪ ♪ i want to grow ♪ i want to try ♪ i can almost touch the sky

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highest negatives in their perspective careers. we're going into the nbc news to see how the campaign is taking a to on both. the ratings are at unprecedented levels. 43% for the president he's only exceeded one other time during the debt ceiling standoff. and mitt romney, it's 40%. that's the highest rating he's ever received in the survey. for context, take a look at the failed presidents over the last years. romney is worse off. 40% is 10 points higher than mccain's in 2008 and john kerry and bob dole. democratic pollster peter hart and republican pollster bill mcintyre. talk about how romney is going to be upside down. you were talking about there's so many unprecedented aspects to that. not just that, july is something we haven't seen before.

>> right. we're spending $30 million a week in advertising around the country. we've never seen anything like this in mord dern times because of the spending. what i said to peter, these campaigns are skwant and old-fashioned. so our standards on what a campaign looks like i don't think mattered much because no one ever 20 the 2 or $3 billion that anyone ever spent. >> so basically two weeks of ad money this year is the equivalent of what bush and gore spent on television the entire election in 2000? >> very true. the other if you think is, romney's never been on the right side of the numbers. he's never been personally acceptable to the american public. and that's what he's working again. every question we have in the poll says trouble for mitt romney on the personal front. >> i want to talk about the unintended consequence of the negative campaign. we have teen a tickdown in the idea of the overall selection. july 2008, 72%.

july 2012, 68%. do you expect that number to go down a little more? >> no. >> in negativity stage? >> no, i'm sorry. >> do you think 2008 is unique. >> 2008 is unique. this baloney that negative campaigns to press turnout is just not true. we had a unique cycle in 2008. and i expect we're going to have turnout that could easily be in the range of what we had last time which is an all-time record. guess why. campaigns have unlimited money. that means unlimited voter contact that we've never seen. >> peter, a few other things about who's interested. 64% of obama voters called themselves interested. 76% of romney. the president among those interested, romney led 48/46? >> that's a big problem. 2008 was a crusade for the democrats and the obama

campaign. 2012 is a campaign. what's happened the hispanic voters and the young voters -- >> voters 18 to 24, obama is up by 55%. >> the big question is, can they get the numbers up, if they can't get them up, obviously states like north carolina, states like indiana, states like iowa, all of those area they were carrying, colorado, nevada, et cetera, those are going to end up on the wrong side of the column. so turnout becomes a huge story in 2012. and right now, the interest level is much higher with the republicans. democrats have a job to do. >> bill, the other thing, peter did it this month. were you obsessed with it last month which is the idea of who are the undecided voters. there aren't many of them, but there are enough that we want to

study them. we put them together in a chart. we took three months of undecided data. you can't just do it with one month. we've what learned they're only undecided on the presidential race. i think the country is headed in the wrong direction with bigger numbers in the overall electorate. while they don't like the president, they really don't like mitt romney. it's 16/44. what do you make of these people? >> what i make of these people, these folks are very -- they're economically stressed. their perception of the economy is much more negative. and you know, generally, though, what tends to happen is guess what, you're the incumbent president now. you're responsible. and what tends to happen to these people is that either some of them won't vote. or they flop against the incumbent. and so the fact that president obama is sort of stuck at 48. and that he cannot change his job approval. he can't change his ballot, that he's stuck at this number, tells

you the significant resistance that's out there beyond the large margins the president enjoys amongst the few groups. and it tells you again, as we head into october, these people are likely to move into a challenge that makes this a very, very close game. >> peter, an interesting op ed in "the new york times" struck me that the president is talk to get voters with the ad. hitting on outsourcing because these are blue collar, working class, disaffected i think you called them. he's not trying to win, he's trying to drive them away from the election? >> i don't know if he's trying to drive them away. both sides are not drawing people to the election, or people away from the election. and voters are obviously less adhered to voting in elections. they're more likely to turn away. but i agree with bill, and that is, if the obama campaign is counting on these people's votes, they've got a language

way to go. >> peter and bill, there's a lot more to do. we've put together a memo, we're going to explain to people what we've done on cell phones. we're going to post that on msnbcnews.com. we're going to explain our methodology there. up next, the supersize "daily rundown" ad nauseam. next, we'll show you the next ads, with an olympic theme hit. don't forget, you can follow the show on facebook. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪ you know what i love about this country? trick question. i love everything about this country! including prilosec otc. you know one pill each morning treats your frequent heartburn

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he's a man of integrity that's respected by republicans and democrats. even my man, the vice president, dick cheney is well liked and respected. "daily rundown" flashback, when george bush announced that the head would be his running mate, dick cheney. he'd be leading the search for the vice president but bush told supporters at a rally in washington that cheney had been his first choice until the start. of course, he couldn't name him until he made sure he was eligible for texas electoral votes. with the campaign taking a toll on both the president and mitt romney, but does the one-time candidate hope the president is gaining popularity when he blasts away with

negative ads like this. >> tax havens. offshore accounts. mitt romney has used every trick in the book. >> "the washington post" has revealed that mitt romney's companies were pioneers. mitt romney is not the solution. he's the problem. >> government strategist steve maha mahan. by him doing negative attacks, he's not relying on outside groups. clearly, he's taking on some water. >> well, it impacts his favorability rating. but also it impacts mitt romney's favorability ratings. 28% of them have a favorable view of the president which is not very good. but only 16% have a favorable view of mitt romney. this say definitional period for mitt romney. the president is trying to define himself before mitt

romney can define himself. it's what. >> campaigns do. >> i was going to say, sarah, a lot of people have made the comparison to the campaign you worked on, the relegislation of 2004 for president bush and what president obama is doing. do you see the similarities? and sort of the big difference you didn't have bush having to do it himself because of outside groups, is that a fair assessment? >> yeah, i do think that's a fair assessment. if you look at, you said this on your show several times, one of the challenges, even though the republicans have much more money at the moment, you've got many messengers. and that probably having some impact. although i think the outside groups have been very effective. and the president is carrying all of his own water. >> for better, for worse? >> for better, for worse. and there's good and bad in that. and we see that in he is negative ads with that. >> i basically want you to assess television ads. first one, from priorities.

it's an olympic theme spot. but good luck getting it aired on affiliates. but here it is. >> welcome to the olympics. there's mitt romney who ran the salt lake city games waving to china, home to a billion people. thousands owe their jobs to mitt romney's companies. >> good hit or bad hit? >> good hit. when you're a media consultant, what you want to do is find something that can cut through the cloud that they can see one or two times and remember it. i think it's an ad that does it for him. >> i don't agree. i think it's a silly ad. >> of course, it's a silly ad. do ads have a purpose in the age of to witter? >> an ad that would have been silly would have been the wind surfing ad in 2004, that was a very effective hit. >> that was your ad, wasn't it? >> it was a bush ad. the reality is it strengthens

it. he took over the olympics. >> sarah is very good and very talented but she's wrong. it's mitt romney the outsore. the mitt romney, the venture capital guy. it uses the olympic hook and tries to take a positive and make it a negative. >> i'm going to change here. sarah, when you saw the president do the ad, it's not his first ad and not his last ad, which is how you're used to seeing that stuff. what did you think? why are are they doing that? >> his err, speaking about you didn't build business. the obama campaign had to take time out of the president to film that. >> and steve, the effect they're

using the direct to camera almost taking a turn away from harsh negatives? >> yes, a couple of reasons. first of all, it cuts through the clutter. second, i think they're trying to set a frame. and the frame is that the romney campaign is trying to distort and divide. >> the other thing that jumped out to me, when i see obamacan date to camera, i'm not seeing romney candidate to camera. is that a mistake? >> if you think of mitt romney, he needs a couple breakout moments. and he needs to have a very good convention. >> put some pressure on himself to have a good convention? >> i think they do have pressure to have a good convention. two reasons. personally, also economically. he's got to put some meat on his economic plan. >> steve and sarah, thank you both. a little strategist session here. we'll get this when i have an expanded half hour. trivia time, we ask, who holds

the record for the longest serving speaker of the house? the answer, it had to be somebody who's got a building named after him, sam rayburn. for a total of 17 years, 2 months, 2 days. stay tuned coming up at the epsd of t end of the hour, a special lightning round. e-mail us at msnbc.com. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] it's a golden opportunity...

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just a short time ago, mitt romney arrived in london. he's beginning a trip abroad in an attempt to boost his foreign policy credentials. nbc's peter alexander, he's live in london with the latest. peter, lay out the trip for us and lay out the next couple of days. >> reporter: yeah, we'll give you a sense. the only thing on tap today for mitt romney and his effort to become president is a conversation with our own brian williams that's going to air tonight on "nbc nightly news."

tomorrow he has some big meetings planned with tony blair as well as david cameron here in london. but to give you a sense, he saved his strongest words for attacking the president for yesterday's jvfw speech. this is an effort to show mitt romney the statesman, as he comes here. specifically coming to the olympics is to highlight his efforts in 2002, when he helped turn around the games there, when they were facing scandal and they were mired in what at the time was a financial crisis. but be very clear, as the campaign has told us numerous times, this is what they call a listen and learn offensive. they're not going on the attack against president obama. what they're really trying to do is make it a conversation and an image -- tho make him look more like a president. >> sounds like code for "checking a box." >> reporter: exactly. >> what do we expect -- public speeches in israel and poland or just poland? >> reporter: at the time, we're told there are scheduled to be

speeches in both israel, jerusalem, specifically, and poland. the poland trip in particular has a subtle message in it as well. obviously, catholic voters are such a critical demographic, and polish voters across the country, but catholic voters specifically. and polish voters in places like wisconsin and in michigan, are obviously critical. >> that will be interesting if he tries to play to them from poland. peter alexander, enjoy a day or two of the olympics, i hope, before you're going to be an what is going to be a grueling five days. welcome to the international scene, my friend. >> thanks for having me. >> let's bring back the panel. liz sidoti and mike viqueira. liz, this trip isn't anything about a high risk, it's low risk. >> not only low risk, it's very calculated managed risk, right? you're not saying to him -- he's doing one interview that we know of, at this point, with brian williams. >> i think he's doing one or two others. >> but beyond that, there's no news conferences with foreign leaders. do we know even if he's going to venture into the palestinian areas when's in israel?

>> he is supposed to meet with some palestinian leaders. what do you expect out of this the trip, clint? >> i expect him to build his image as being somewhat familiar with foreign affairs, because it's not something that's been talked about very much. but i don't think he wants to talk about it very much either. >> and i want to move quickly to congress today. we're going to see some tax cut votes. >> largely symbolic. does anybody in their right mind -- >> there's to deal? >> right. remember, monthitch mcconnell t to bring up the tax cut plan, forcing harry reid to block it. so it's classic kabuki theater. >> classic kabuki theater. how depressing. by the way, we had that poll question, and we asked, by only a 50 to 43 split did voters say, get rid of the tax cut for those making $250,000 or more. i thought it would be a wider gap. that was surprising. coming up, the top of the hour, even more daily rundown. the supersized show continues. is the president's best defense a good offense when it comes to

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good morning, again. welcome back to this special 90-minute edition of the daily rundown. in just a minute, we'll talk to dnc political director patrick gaspard. and later, it's map time. just how short is the shortest path to 70 for both the president and mitt romney? but first, before we get to all that, look up what's on our radar this morning. of course, it's our new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. july was an ugly month on the trail and on the airwaves, and the negative campaign took a toll on how voters view both the president and mitt romney. the president's negative rating, 43%. second highest reported since he took office. mitt romney, the highest recorded for him.

our poll finds a resurgence of >> welcome back to squawk on the street. june, new home sales. down 8.4%. seasonally adjusted annuallized clip of 350,000. we are expecting a number north of 370,000. but really what made it a bit worse was last month was revised higher. exaggerating the drop town to the current level of 350,000. you know, our last look at the april number was 343,000. so this doesn't stand out with regard to a range but it really is a bit of a reversal. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you. let's get more reaction to the new home sales data. defender o.

>> republicans in congress, they've decided, apparently, that they're not going to let this bill past. despite the fact that 98% of americans make $250,000 a year or less, they've decided to hold middle class tax cuts hostage until we also agree to spend another $1 trillion on tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires. governor romney doesn't just approve of this strategy, he wants to import this into the white house. >> meanwhile, the president's campaign seems to be in a full defensive crouch, as the romney campaign tries to use the president's own comments about building businesses to try to drive a wedge between him and small business owners. here's more of the president in portland last night. >> keep in mind, in politics, you have to endure a certain amount of spin. that's -- everybody does it, i understand that. those are the games that are played in campaigns. although i have to say, when

people omit entire sentences from a speech and they start splicing and dicing, they may have tipped a little bit over their skis. they may have gone over the edge. >> patrick gaspard is the executive director of the dnc, previously served as the political director in the white house. and he joins me now. so patrick, the president out this morning, candidate to camera, if you will, trying to, what he says, is correct the record on this comment. that tells us, you guys wouldn't be doing that and using the president if it weren't hurting a bit, fair? >> well, good morning, chuck. it's great to join us. the president is having a direct conversation with the american people about the choices that we have in this race and clearly when you have the other side spending tens of millions of dollars to distort his words and misrepresent the record, it's important that we get our best surrogate out there having a direct communication. folks in this country trust this president. they know that he's fighting

actively every single day on behalf of the middle class. and they also know that businesses in their communities benefit from improved education, strong infrastructure, and from the kind of skill sets that we're trying to impart to our young people. so the president was communicating that in that video message. >> as the dnc or the obama campaign ever taken romney's words out of context? >> you know, chuck, we're going to have a -- this is going to be a long, tough race. we have 105 days left in this context, and you and i know that there'll be lots of interesting controversies and misrepresentations by folks in the political class. but we are trying to have as serious a conversation as we can with the electorate about the stakes that exist for all americans -- >> patrick, that wasn't an answer. have you ever taken romney's words out of context? >> no, no, chuck. we actually have not taken governor romney's words out of context. we have absolutely represented

romney's views that at this point we should be giving tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires who absolutely never asked for them, don't need them, and that we should balloon our deficits going into the future. so we take governor romney at his word and we try to represent those views -- >> i imagine the -- i imagine the romney campaign would disagree on an issue like, for instance, the "very poor" comment that became scuttlebutt a few months ago. but clarence paige has a question for you. >> how about the romney "i like to fire people," did the obama people take that out of context at all? >> you know what, clarence, there are lots of folks who are out there having conversations about the election. we certainly didn't take governor romney's comments out of context. and we've represented the views that governor romney had when he was governor of massachusetts and when he was in a private

sector, bain equity, we've made it abundantly clear that he outsourced jobs in that period, and that as a consequence of decisions that he made when he was the head of that company, american workers lost their pensions and their benefits. so we've accurately represented his views on job creation. >> hey, patrick, why do you think more people told us that the president was running a negative campaign than mitt romney? >> chuck, i'm sure that if you're sitting in battleground states, in particular, you're seeing a deluge of ads from not only both candidates, but from the super pacs. you know that we have been radically outspent by super pacs on the other side, whose ads are 90% negative. we're going to do all that we can to define the issues for americans and to help them understand what this president inherited, where he's pointing us towards, and clearly, we need to lay some very, very sharp differences. but in that very same poll that you just spoke to, chuck, we found that americans, by a

16-point margin, believe that barack obama is more on the side of middle class workers than mitt romney is. so clearly that's coming through in our messaging and in the president's accomplishments. >> mike viqueira, you have a question. >> patrick, mike viqueira here. in the aftermath of the gabrielle giffords shooting, the president wrote an op-ed in the daily star calling for common sense gun control laws. we know he was four square for the assault weapons ban, which can expired in 2004. has there been a political calculation after the tragedy in colorado to not emphasize gun control because of virginia and north carolina and pennsylvania being battleground states? >> the -- mike, the tragedy in colorado should never be politicized by either side. you know that this president has strenuously supported the rights of responsible gun owners, but he's also made it clear that we need to do all that we can to increase enforcement and to

improve criminal background checks. and he's done -- he's worked incredibly hard with states to improve those measures, improve that database, so we have more flexibility and more nimbleness in how we enforce those laws. >> and he still favors renewal of the assault weapons ban? >> yeah, as i said, mike, the president has always supported the rights of responsible gun owners and he continues to support the reinstatement of the assault weapons ban. but he also knows that that bill faces significant headwinds in congress, which is why it's incumbent upon us to do all that we can to strengthen existing laws. >> but patrick, there is a fine line here when it comes to these issues. if the president puts his shoulder behind it, right, if he wanted to make a push on the assault weapons ban, he would force a vote. it's clear he doesn't want to do that. is that a fair interpretation? >> chuck, let's be clear. there are a lot of issues that are before the american people right now that the president puts his shoulder behind every single day. you well know that since

september of last year, there's been a jobs bill before this congress that has the best bipartisan ideas that's been languishing because they refuse to move. so there's been a fair amount of obstruction on many fronts, from this tea party-led wing in the congress right now. the president will continue to do all that he can to advance the rights of the american people and to ensure that we have responsible laws on the books. >> patrick, you're coming to us from new orleans. i know the president's going there today to speak to the urban league. message is going to be mostly about what? >> well, the president is is coming to give a speech about the challenges that we have faced, the direction that we're going in. i expect you'll hear a fair amount from the president about the kinds of investments that we have to make in our urban centers. certainly the investments that we need in infrastructure. the investments that we need in education to make certain that the next generation of americans can continue to be the envy of

the world and can out-compete and out-innovate their competitors overseas. >> patrick gaspard, executive director of the dnc, chuathank for joining me this morning. >> thank you so much for having me, chuck. all right, up next, map quest. we couldn't have a supersized show without bringing out the map screen. we'll show you the shortest routes to 217. but first, the trivia question on this supersized show, how long was the longest individual speech on the senate floor? get us your answer in quick, tweet us the answer @chucktodd or @thedailyrundown. >> jimmy stewart, right? >> what are you doing? ♪

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so what do former president george w. bush and president barack obama have in common? well, they both won the same nine battleground states on the way to the white house. former president bush did it in 2004 and of course president obama in 2008. today, we're going to take a look at those nine battleground states. but let's start with a quick refresher. back in 2004, show you the maps of how bush beat kerry. here you go, as you can see. almost all red except on the coasts, near the great lakes. basically, if your state touched water, you voted for kerry, except if you touched southern warm water. here was the obama map. if you will, this, of course, took -- made a lot of those red states blue, went down farther, the mid-atlantic seaboard and showed that, yes, even the southern waters with was warm to

the democratic party in the blue, if you will. so we're going to start with, what about those states that went obama and bush and show you what it looks like if the kerry states stay in the democratic column and go from there. let me take you to my road to 270 here. this is a map that essentially gives the kerry states to the president plus new mexico. new mexico is a state that essentially is leaning towards the democrats. it gives romney all of the bush -- the states that both bush and mccain won, plus indiana, since it's a statehat it doesn't appear that the president is going to contest with. so what are the shortest paths? as you can see, here are the seven battleground states that are in our toss-up category that both bush won and obama won. and as you can see, to get to 270, he needs 19. he could actually do with this was one state, florida. that would put him at 280, pause that gets him to 29. that is shortest path, if you

will. as you can see here, romney's shortest path has to -- takes up a lot more of these states. so let's go in order of largest to smallest here. his shortest path would be florida, he's at 220. ohio, 238. north carolina's next, still short. virginia, still short. so he needs all of those plus one of these next three, iowa, nevada, colorado. i think economically, i think the republicans would argue nevada, but if hispanics aren't going well, he can do it, as you can see, he can get there without winning anything in the west if the hispanic vote is the disaster for republicans that some of them expect. but as you can see, the president for the president, using the kerry map. this assumes he holds pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. all three can be teetering, but he's got all of these different ways he can get there. even if he doesn't win florida, it's ohio, and say, throw in nevada, and he gets there, he

can lose all the rest. or if you want to take away that and say, okay, maybe he'll win ohio, either with ohio and iowa, he can do it with virginia, if you will. let me do this year. he can do it with virginia. and look at this and colorado. and lose all of these, if you assume that the college-educated white voter, which is more dominant of those battleground states, more dominant in colorado and virginia, and that's the strongest part of the white voting electorate for the president, holds that, throws in his pangs, african-americans, his coalitions, colorado and virginia. he can lose some of these states that can demographically are going against the president, including an ohio, an iowa, and a north carolina and possibly even florida and nevada. so his path to 270, assuming he holds other kerry states, a lot easier. as you see, mitt romney, it's a sweep, but the same goes, it's possible that if romney is getting there, he probably wins all of the toss-ups, if it's somehow moving in his direction.

so that said, no doubt about it, both mitt romney and president obama are fighting hard to win over these voters in the battleground states, so much so, they love to personalize it. take a listen. >> it is good to be back in jacksonville, florida! >> you wawhat a welcome that iss vegas welcome. >> good to be back in virginia. >> colorado could be the place that decides who our next president will be, and if it is the place that decides that, i'm counting on you to get the job done. >> so, ohio, over the next five months, this election will take many twists and many turns. polls will go up and polls will go down. >> let's bring back our panel. clarence paige at the "chicago tribune," liz sidoti from the associated press, and mike viqueira, my friend at the white house. liz sidoti, the kerry states plus new mexico. that's where he believes is his

baseline and he says, look at that. and you see, if that's correct, and they're holding wisconsin and pennsylvania and michigan and we're not saying those are sure shots, but, boy, if that really is his starting point, it is a tougher road than -- for romney to get there. >> oh, absolutely, it's a tougher road for romney. but it's not all cakewalks in some of these states. look at each of them individually. virginia, north carolina, he's not going to have, necessarily, the huge numbers of minorities and young voters that he had the last time. we know, we've seen in the polling, they're not with him as strongly this time as they were before. so they've got a real challenge on their hands there. florida, ohio. the economic issue -- well, and nevada. the economic issues in those states are incredibly difficult. but, you know, he's got some assets. the hispanic issue is a real issue and a real asset for the democrats. and not just in states like colorado and nevada, but in iowa, in ohio, virginia, north carolina. you know, you have -- you have this huge growth of hispanics and the republicans are on their

heels because of it. >> you know, when you look at the romney map, he's got to do the clean sweep, but then again, bush clean swept. kerry did get stuck at 252. >> that's right. of course the economy was different then. it wasn't really an issue like now. and you also have a situation here where obama has not fired up his base in terms of these young voters and the college-educated folks, and they're not going to get fired up until after labor day, which is when we're really going see the horse day. >> you're assuming they get fired up after labor day. >> and it goes back to the poll and what bill and peter were saying earlier. high interest on the side of romney, the high-interest voters. you've got high negativity, which really plays against the president's brand. his essential brand. mitt romney starts out every speech saying, he's a great guy, president obama, but -- so if they can bring down the great guy factors, they can -- >> obama might be hoping, running all these negative ads, pulling his great guy factor up. sorry. >> it's been a great panel. stick with me.

we'll have final thoughts the from you. but first, the answer to our lightning round trivia, we asked, how long was the individual speech on the senate floor, the answer, 24 hours and 18 minutes, and i think good senate historians know, it was senator strahm thurman, who holds that record, he was filibustering the civil rights act of 1967. you're watching a special extended edition of "the daily rundown" on msnbc. [ feedback ]

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democrats are divided over calls for stricter gun laws after friday's tragedy in colorado, where 12 people lost their lives. democratic lawmakers are pushing for new measures, despite senate majority leader harry reid urging patience. new york congresswoman carolyn mccarthy who lost her husband in train shooting in 1993 responded to criticism from new jersey governor chris christie, who accused politicians of grandstanding. >> i own that right to speak here. i have the right to try to reduce gun violence in this country, because i've been through it. and as long as i have a voice, i will continue to fight to reduce gun violence in this country. >> let's bring back the panel, clarence page, liz sidoti, mike viqueira. we know what's going on here. harry reid, from a gun state in nevada. we know exactly what's going on up there.

new york almost always splits more regionally. but i wanted to look at guns versus cars in the state of colorado and the amount of paperwork you have to do to register a car versus the amount of paperwork you have to do to register a gun. let me show you some things we've put up here. there's actually no registration requirement in guns. it's actually against the law to register guns. they passed a law to do that. concealed weapons permit only needs to be renewed every five years. it requires a photo i.d., fingerprints, proof of residency, and handgun competency. there is a background check. let's look at background checks, guns versus cars. for cars, you need to have a proof of insurance, a bill of sale. the title. there's a vin verification, your vehicle i.d. number. there's a photo i.d., an emissions test, a proof of insurance, a license that's renewed every five years. these are not the same level of paperwork, if you will. mike viqueira, wheyou look at it, with cars, you have to, you know, you have to do a lot more things every year to sort of prove -- and it could be a deadly weapon if misused.

>> sure. >> a gun, obviously, becomes a deadly weapon, arguably -- sometimes if you use it correctly, it's a deadly weapon, but certainly if you use it incorrectly, gets in the wrong hands. it's sort of this line of, is there -- what about more regulation of gun ownership rather than restricting gun ownership? >> i hate to speak in esoteric terms, but clearly the anti-gun control crowd has won the argument. they've framed the issue as one of essential american national values. >> it's a values issue, it's not a -- nobody has sort of a rational policy debate about it. >> it's become a complete political user here in washington, it's been that way since 1994. two cities, who have known their share of gun violence, chicago and washington, have had their assault weapons ban thrown out. i've seen carolyn mccarthy give a moving speech -- >> i've seen her give that speech a couple times a year and it goes nowhere. >> goes nowhere. and the nra has reached almost

this mythical status in washington. >> the nra argument is always, the criminals will break the laws to get gun. >> i'll be even more blatant that, they say the gun issue is a loser, they want to expand their tent and reach those the guys out there, especially white male voters, in particular, who are -- >> ohio, pennsylvania. >> right, and those swing states, and i'm a native ohioan from john boehner's district, and i know what i'm talking about, and this is a cultural thing. but i read a column this morning comparing colorado with new york, which has one of the toughest, but fair gun regulation policies. and there this shooter in colorado probably would not have gotten his permit, because they interview not just the person applying, but also references that you provide. and they would have -- >> they basically -- you have more paperwork to fill out to get a gun in new york than you do to get a car. that's sort of the point. >> you can't get the permit -- >> in colorado, nobody is restricting you saying you can't buy a gun, they're just saying, you have to fill out a lot of

paperwork. >> there's something else adding to the politics of all of this. no, car registration is not politicized, and gun registration is. because the freedom to drive a car is not enshrined in the constitution, the freedom to bear arms is. >> and that's ultimately the issue, but no one is saying you can't add regulation. you just can't restrict -- >> right. but i agree with clarence. the democrats recognize it is a loser. >> john hickenlooper on the sunday shows in the aftermath of the tragedy is sort of giving very ambiguous answers about gun control. you know, the democratic governor of colorado. i mean, it just bolsters the case. >> it is. i'll tell you, the ammunition thing, though, i do think if there's any momentum, the idea that you can buy all that ammunition on the internet, that's one of those you wonder, maybe everybody rallies around that, because you get the sense, maybe something should be -- >> except for gun owners who die bullets in bulk, but it does sound shocking to people who don't have guns. >> shameless plugs? >> christian bale, batman, he's gone to visit folks who were injured out there in colorado. at least he's stepping up, even if congress won't step up to the

debate they ought to be happening. >> the ap olympics team is over in london doing eyes on london, which is a behind the scenes chatter and giving a scope of what's going on. >> and to make it extra shameless, congratulations to the old georgetown swim club in bethesda, maryland, who had a successful division l. >> our shameless plug is we will see you, this is a great supersized edition. we'll see you for a half hour tomorrow, a sweetened but short version. we have a fascinating new way to look at the battleground states. it's not red versus blue. there are 12 ways to divide this country up. andrea mitchell will have a special 90-minute edition of her show today at 1:00. but first, msnbc's olympic coverage begins with women's soccer qualifying rounds, great britain versus new zealand. that's coming up live from london, which is two days to go until the opening ceremonies. you know what, go great britain. the opening ceremonies, the xxx

olympiad. enjoy the games. bye-bye! i don't know if he's going to catch him. >> he did it. he did it again. after all the anticipation. in a majestic city marked by stunning sights. the kickoff to the london games has finally arrived. >> it is all about misty franklin. soon the stars of swimming will enter the arena, rivals set to clash for dominance in the pool. >> lochte, who will it be? they're tumble and soar hoping to capture their chance at perfection. misty and kerri repeat as gold medal champions. a man who electrified

beijing's track returns. >> usain bolt winning! as the countdown continues, the first moments of these london games are here. 3:30 in the afternoon on a beautiful 85-degree day here in london, a city that this week has become the focal point for athletes and sports fans around the world. a look now at th iconic red street running from trafalgar square all the way to the gates of buckingham palace. we're just outside buckingham. i'm willie geist. the opening ceremony still two days away, but a big game of women's soccer. the host nation takes the field about 30 minutes now against new zealand. the u.s. women will look for the first three-peat in olympic soccer history.