apfrog leappad2 with games and apps. i say we flip a coin. you mean with your double-headed coin? you know you could put both the things on layaway and pay a little at a time. awesome!! awesome!! high-five? [ mom ] mmm, you and your trick coin... shop now. get the hottest toys on your list today, like leapfrog leappad2 and hot wheels wall tracks... then put it on layaway so you have more time to pay. walmart. i'm toure and you're in "the cycle." one day to go until the second debate, and don't let anyone tell you different. this one matters. we have captain crunch in the house, dana mill bank is here. >> i'm s.e. cupp and i'm heading to hofstra tomorrow night. >> i'm receive kor in that caseky, let's face is the

economics matters. how do we get back on track? answers are coming in today's guest spot. >> i'm krystal ball. think of it as a scientific jaywalking of america. how much did voters know about the government they're shaping? >> "the cycle" is in free fall. don't wore. it's a good thing. it's a big day for "the cycle." before we start i want to talk about my weekend, which was horrible. the yankees had a terrible weekend. they got tossed aside like ragdolls and jeter got injured. i don't want to talk about it anymore. >> you did bring it up. >> i know, i know. get that picture out of here. but the best part of the weekend for me was friday night, steve

kornacki's 33rd and a fifth bitt birthday party. >> the anniversary of the gerald ford's nomination to be vice president. >> we all remember that. your weekend wasn't so good either. >> it was off to a great start and ended on a high note. i've been in ikea furniture aassembly hell. i had 24 boxes in my tiny new york apartment of ikea furniture to assemble. i don't have to abandon the apartment, which is what i was afraid of. >> you were going to move. >> you had a great weekend. >> i had a great weekend. sorry, steve, i missed the party. the reason i was not in that photo is because i was hunting in new hampshire. got myself a couple delicious wood cocks and rapped them in bacon. it was delicious.

>> i'll pretend i won't be there. president obama and romney hnz are in the last hours of debate prep before they meet tomorrow for the second presidential debate. it should be a monumental evening in this debate. hofstra university in long island, new york is hosting "the cycle's" only town hall style debate with undecided voters asking the question which may or may not be augmented by candy crowley. this is the most direct since george h.w. bush, bill clinton and ross perot started the tradition 20 years ago. this time obama needs to find his mojo and not seem like he doesn't want to be there. campaign aides vow this time you'll see a more fiery obama. for romney it's his chance to he break a six-year stereotype he's too rich and out of touch to relate to the voter. even aas he dominated the first debate he lagged 29 points behind obama when voters asked if he connects well with

ordinary americans. let's bring in our guess dana "captain crunch" millbank. interesting tough from nate today. national numbers go one way and state numbers another way. he said if you're not nervous or thrown off by the numbers, you're not doing it right. you should be terrified by this set of facts. what do you think about that? should we be freaking out or confused a little bit by the confluence of numbers going opposite directions at once? >> i'm paying no attention to the polls. i'm have a nonstop gerald ford party here. >> we should have combined them. >> that's a more useful pursuit, filler of our time than trying to figure out what will happen with these polls. i think that what's happened here is this race is exactly where it's been for months, and that is that it's extremely close.

it particularly favors obama narrowly in the swing states. i think a lot of us got carried away when romney was having that terrible time. i think a lot of us got carried away in the other direction when obama flopped in the first debat debate. i think we've seen swings in polls, but the fundamentals of the race haven't changed that dramatically. now maybe obama will do something tomorrow to make it change nor dramatically, but it still seems like the fundamentals are where they've been for a long time now. >> steve, what do you think about this new trend to aggregate the swing state polls andle that will tell you what? >> no. there's a new one out today that takes 10, 12, 15 of so-called battleground states and gives you romney is ahead by two points. can we do away with these in the future? these have no value whatsoever. give me the national numbers and individual state numbers. we have no historical basis for

comparison for a bunch of battlegrounds. we can look at national horse race numbers, aat this point they were here and today they're here. this gives us a way to compare the races. you can't do that with 12 random battleground states thrown together. you don't know when that number means am it's a random statistic that gets cited. spend the resources on polls that are actually useful. >> everybody listen to steve and do away with the polls. what does obama have to do and what does romney have to do tomorrow night? >> the biggest danger for obama is he comes out and just lights his hair on fire and goes nuts out there. he doesn't have a whole lot of hair to light, to that can be very dangerous. i think it's the opposite problem of -- remember with the al gore debate. he had his first debate, comes out with the sighing and gets in george w. bush's face. the second debate, it looked like the man was sedated and he

could not be awakened for anything and it was an overreaction. that's the biggest danger for obama. the pressure is really on him here, and he needs to thread the needle and be forceful without being overbearing, he needs to appear to be presidential while also getting in the gutter and mixing up with romney. it's a very difficult task, but, of course, it's one he created for himself a week ago. >> well, we've all been a little dismissive of polls today, but i'll ask you about another one, dana. the politico/george washington battleground role has romney improving his likability since the denver debate. going into the denver debate his favorables were 47% 47% and now it's 51 to 44. do you think president obama was really sort of trying to protect his likability in that last debate, and that's why you saw him playing things a little close to the vest, not being too emotional, not being aggressive,

and do you think he's going to work to fix that to counterbalance that tomorrow? >> i think obama was getting carried away with the rough weeks that romney had. i said, i'm going to be presidential and i'm going to be above the fray. i don't have to mix it up with that guy. we see in retrospect that was a tremendous mistake for him. i suspect if this election were based on who is the most likeable candidate, that's not going to favor mitt romney here. as his numbers rise overall, even the likability numbers rise, they all are rising together. you know, if this is a personality competition, then the republicans nominated the wrong guy. they knew that going into it, and they wanted to keep this thing on the economy. >> dana, first of all, i strenuously object to calling you captain crunch when everyone knows it was kapin crunch.

>> how did you know about my sugar cereal habit? this is unfair. my daughter may be listening. >> i want to talk about the actual town hall format of this debate and who it may or may not favor. back in 2008 there were the only debates where there was high expectations for john mccain. it was supposed to be his comfort zone, and it tended up being an awkward moment, "snl" parodied it. let's take a look. >> so let me tell you another story that we shared before. when i looked out of my second floor, a man i met many years ago in chicago, and at first i talked to him -- but over the course of working together year in and year out -- >> obviously, a town hall format presents different challenges from the split screen. you have more of a burden to sort of try to connect with the voters. do you think it favors one

candidate over the other? >> had you asked me a while ago a, i would have said certainly this favors obama because he's better at the retail politics. he's better at emoating and being in a room with people. you know what? i think what we learned from that first debate is he's so out of practice at this. he doesn't do town hall meetings anymore. god forbid he take questions from the reporters. what the white house should learn is that's a big mistake not having him out there and mix it up and not taking questions. it's not as clear as it once would have been this is the dominant format for him. now, romney is naturally uncomfortable. he can sometimes give the affectation he's a human being. there's a glitch in the matrix, and you realize something is wrong there. he's been having a lot of practice lately, so he's got the routine down and he's gotten aa lot more convincing at being an actual human. >> he does seem like an agent from the matrix sometimes,

doesn't he? >> if he shows up in sunglasses it will. >> election is over. >> dana, the town hall format for these debates did not become standard until 1992 and it became standard for the specific reason. the clinton campaign insisted on it buzz he has that innate ability to connect with people on the spot. we've had it since then. i want to show you the iconic town hall meeting clip from the '92 campaign. a woman asked what has the deficit meant to them personally? this is often shown to show how good clinton was in thiz formats. let's look at that. >> how has the national debt personally affected each of your lives. >> are you suggesting if somebody has means that the national debt doesn't affect them? i'm not sure i get it. help me with the question, and i'll try to answer it. >> you know people that lost their jobs and homes? >> uh-huh. >> i've been governor of a small state for 12 years.

i'll tell you how it's affected me. in my state when people lose their jobs, there's a good chance i'll know them by their names. when a factory closes, i know the people that ran it. when the businesses go bankrupt, i know them. >> dana, it strikes me the format is tailor-made for bill clinton, but has anyone else been able to do it like clinton did? >> not for the first time in the last month or so, i think democrats may be wishing they, in fact, had been able to nominate bill clinton one more time, because just as at his convention speech he would have been perfect in this format. no one has done it quite as well since then. i don't think either of these gentlemen are necessarily, you know, certainly not of a clintonian level. i'm not expecting a lot of i feel your pain moments here, although we may have some pain as both of them attempt to do that. >> all right.

dana millbank, captain of crunch time, thank you very much, sir. >> thanks very much. >> before we get out of here, andrew sullivan is officially off the ledge. up next, all things in moderation. in the debates to date the moderator has been as hot a topic as candidates. what role should candy play in tomorrow's debate. that's the spin as "the cycle" rolls on for monday, october 15th. he. [ female announcer ] born from the sweet monk fruit,

something this delicious could only come from nature. new nectresse. the 100% natural no-calorie sweetener made from the goodness of fruit. new nectresse. sweetness naturally.

one golden crown. come on frank how long have we known each other? go to e-trade. they got killer tools man. they'll help you nail a retirement plan that's fierce. two golden crowns. you realize the odds of winning are the same as being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day? frank! oh wow, you didn't win? i wanna show you something... it's my shocked face. [ gasps ] ♪ [ male announcer ] get a retirement plan that works at e-trade.

that makes watching tv even better. if your tv were a hot dog zeebox would be some sort of fancy, french mustard. when they magically unite, people would think, "woah, this two dollar hot dog tastes like a fancy eight dollar hot dog." download zeebox free, and say "woah" every time you watch tv.

this is a big [ bleep ] deal. >> finish him! >> that's slate's latest political combat between paul ryan and vice president joe biden. we get the first wave of polls. gallup has the president leading among register voters but trailing among likely voters. a "washington post" poll that includes before and after the debate shows a tight race with obama holding a slight edge nationally. enthusiasm among romney supporters has ticked upwards

again. two points higher than enthusiasm for the president. will clear politic has the race at a dead heat. with debate number two tomorrow, the town hall format allows for a wide array of topics, both domestic and internationals and the questions come from undecided voters. will we get to some of the topics not yet covered in debates like immigration, education and gay marriage? let's debate that in today's spin cycle. we've seen two moderators, two formats. i'd like to play a clip of jim lehrer and martha raddatz. >> all i want to do is -- >> let's get back to medicare. >> let's get back to medicare. >> the president said that the government can provide the service at lower cost. >> another war in the middle east -- >> they're closer to get enough fissile material to put in a weapon if they had a weapon. >> you're acting like they don't want one, though? >> i'm not saying that.

facts matter, martha. >> i think it was a good illustration of this sort of goldilocks phenomenon that we see in both with the candidates and the moderators. people criticized jim lehrer for being a little feeble and absent and invisible. excuse me, and he was like peter falk. one more thing. >> can i talk? >> no, no? okay. then martha raddatz, who i thought was assertive, some criticized her for being too aggressive. there you saw her scolding the vice president. she tried with paul ryan as well. maybe candy crowley is in the position of having to be just right. not the jim lehrer, who is completely invisible and to that end she said in politico today she doesn't want to be the wall flower but not this too intrusive martha raddatz type. she has a burden, though, right? >> she does. the thing that bothers me is candy crowley is only the second woman in 20 years -- she's the

first woman in 20 years to moderate a presidential debate. she's only the second woman ever to do it. both have been relegated to the town hall debate where they're not really moderators. they're supposed to stand there and essentially call on the students in the class. in fact, the rules that the campaigns agreed to, although candy did not agree to them, she's not supposed to rephrase the question or open a new topic or otherwise intervene in the debate except acknowledge the people in the odd yaens. carole simpson, who was the last woman to host the town hall debate, said i was not a moderator in the sense of jim lehr lehrer. as a town hall moderator i was told which audience member to go to next. i had no power at all to choose the people and what question asked. the only women they selected they put this this neutered town hall debate where they have no control. candy crowley, this is her life.

she follows the political cycle day in and day out unlike jim lehrer or martha raddatz. >> it's like they're asking these women to host the dinner party in the '50s. stay in the kitchen and make sure everyone is taken care of and the men folk will have the real conversation. go back to the kitchen. >> it's a little odd. >> we needed spartanburg omebod the cards, get ryan seacrest. here's what it said on your card. say that. candy crowley is a serious journalist. she can help amplify the question, so you may not ask the exact right question undecided voter, but i'll make sure it gets asked in the right way. the candidate might try it to say i won't let you do that. to chain her down is totally inappropriate. we learned, steve, that don't go out in the media and say what you're going to do before you do it. if she hadn't said this is how i'm going to be, then we wouldn't have had this discussion at all. >> what bothers me about the

role of the moderators rilt now and this is particularly true with jim lehrer and martha r radda raddatz, it's narrow what they bring up. >> jim only asked six questions. >> this was the domestic policy debate jim lehrer focused on, and it was all about taxes, headlight care. >> payment advisory board. >> within the beltway. to me it raises a more philosophical question about let's take a step back here. i have a modest proposal. what if we had a debate without a moderator at all? no studio audience and two candidates -- >> just lock them in a room? >> i wrote about this in salon three weeks ago. it would be organic and up thoem to decide what topics to broach, how to broach it. they would have to manage the time. this was an idea that phil donahue has been pushing for a long time. he experimented with one once. this is like the announcerless football game. there's one debate like that on

the donahue hoe 20 years ashow . here's how it started. that's how the debate began. >> i'm pleased to present governor brown, governor clinton. >> well, i want to just say i'm very happy to be here with bill clinton. >> weird. >> you could see the hesitation there. >> does it work out? >> it didn't work in that setting and donahue will say it was become they were both democrats. if you had a general election where there's a real sort of priority on drawing distinctions, maybe tltd be different. >> here at "the cycle" we have a moderatorless debate every day. before we go we want to briefly mention arlen specter, the 30-year senator from pennsylvania who passed this weekend after his third battle with cancer. he was a democrat and a republican during the course of his career, but above all else he was a powerhouse that spoke his mind, often led the debate and wasn't afraid to work with both sides of the aisle.

he was something we don't see much of in washington these days and he will be missed. he was 82 years old. steve, i know you followed his career. >> you know, politically speaking his survival skills were amazing. what sums it up is one stretch from 1986 to 1992, one of his terms, he gets leere-elected in6 and he's very independent and one of the few republicans to oppose the nomination of president reagan. there's another supreme court nomination and it's clarence thomas. he leads the charge to confirm clarence thomas. gets back in the good graces of conservatives and survives. >> coming up, a brief pause on politics. yes, i'm serious, just like the economic problems facing the country. the chairman of one of the world's largest accounting firms joins us next in the guest spot.

time for your business entrepreneur of the week. this former model created shoptiques. she knows content sells, so she also launched a companion online magazine as an ultimate source for what's in. for more watch yt kwur business" sunday mornings at 7:30 on msnbc. [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

joining us now are three peasant laborers from the factories in china where the iphones were manufactured. josh here was just complaining about apple maps. >> it wasn't really a complaint. >> talk about apple map. it no work, right? you took it to wrong place. you want starbucks and it took you to dunkin' doughnuts. >> that might be so hard for you. >> you want it to take you to jcpenney? how you deal with that? >> i guess we just lucky. we don't need map because we sleep where we work. >> would you guys like to complain about an american product? >> oh. >> that's a good question. >> let's see. what does america make?

let's see. does diabetes count as a product? >> that was from this weekend's "snl," chinese workers taking a swipe at the idea of made in america, but disappearing manufacturing jobs, the world economy and u.s. competitiveness are no laughing matter. according to the latest abc news/"washington post" poll over half of americans believe the country is on the wrong track. no surprise a recent poll found the economy remains the top issue this election year. our next guest says despite signs of progress like the most recent unemployment number, there's trouble ahead if we don't account now. he's here to tell us where to focus our efforts to get the most bang for our buck. he's the man that would know. in the guest spot is the xharm and senior partner of price wauterhouse coopers. i'm looking ahead to after the

election, no matter who wins. the first item of business is this fiscal cliff. the idea at the end of the year a number of tax cuts expire and a number of automatic spending cuts on the defense side are scheduled to be phased in. i want to take one item there in particular, the bush tax cuts. we've had them for ten years now. seems the republican position is to extend all of them and the democrat is to extend for 98% of americans. what is the direction we need to go with the bush tax cuts in your mind? >> as you think about the fiscal cliff, let's focus on the debt situation. the reality is we can't tax enough, cut enough or grow enough to actually deal with that challenge that's in front of us. we hear this from ceos that we interact with, from the smallest entrepreneur on the street to the largest corporations. the reality is we think about getting past this election cycle is how do you aattack all three statement? making sure we deal with the issues around tax and the like,

how to make sure you put enough stimulus in the economy so we can continue to grow, and how do you make sure that you balance all of the sbimgentitlement iss. the reality is the economy is mixed right now. you have positive signs and not so positive signs. one of the things that entrepreneurs generally think about is the risks and uncertainties in front of them. the biggest thing is take away that risk, minimize that uncertainty and give people a path forward in terms of what they can do and make investments. either hiring people, making investments in capital infrastructure and otherwise. >> let me press you a little bit about you want a comprehensive solution to the debt issue. i understand that. the reason i mention the bush tax cuts, is there's a really stumbling block in congress. it's more than 20 years that a single member of congress has voted for a tax increase. there's an absolute bottom line on the republican party's part in congress we will not let any bush tax cuts expire. i know the argument you can't

fix the entire debt problem by raising taxes on the wealthy, but is there any way that you can fix this problem without doing that at all a? >> no. the prealthoureality is you hav something with the tax issues there. the compromised position have to be something where the two parties come together to deal with the issue. when you look at the combination of all theish issues in front os and the debt issues and the reality is we're not going to grow the way we have in the last couple of years as a country similar to what we did back then. i find a lot of behind the scenes conversations going on in terms of attacking the issue. you see entrepreneurs and ceos and management teams say we're willing to give on the issue. we have to compromise and come up with a compromised solution to deal with that. my sense is you have to see the politicians come together including the republicans to

drive the issue forward. when you look at the numbers, it's not sustainable right now. >> let's talk about the public school system for a minute. how well are public schools -- how good of a job are they doing to prepare students for the modern work force? it seems like they were designed when we were a manufacturing-based economy and the most important thing kids could learn was discipline, obey orders, memorization. how well are he doing to prepare kids for a modern work force. >> today when you look at job issues out there it's a dichotomy. you have unemployment at the rates they are and you have job scarcity and employment. a survey recently, 75% of the ceos they surveyed believe they can't achieve their goals because they don't have the right resources. we have a real mismatch. take it back to the schools where you started. the kids today are not getting the required educational needs to deal with and prepare them for the global economy that we have to operate in as well as

the change. think about this as a very simple example. today a lot of organizations are dying for resources that can help them with the digital age. think about how many jobs went away with productivity and technology. are kids skilled enough to do that? one of the things we launched in our own organization is how do we help teachers teach? one thing that's interesting is a data point. two-thirds of the teachers out there today don't feel equipped enough to team financial literacy. they launched a new program to take our assets and people to teach teachers how to teach financial literacy so kids in kindergarten through grade school into college know how to start a business and think about a mortgage, a checkbook or otherwise because those are the basics to start a business, which is where the job growth is going to come from. on top of that, set them up for the new skills needed as we look ahead to the future. >> bob, we moved from a manufacturing centric economy in

this country. on the "snl" skit they laughed about what america makes. does it scare you that we make little to nothing that the world wants to buy? >> the u.s. still makes a lot of great things. in fact, in surveys around the world a lot of other countries see the u.s. as a big opportunity. great consumer base, great quality rye sources and great resiliency in terms of what has to be done along the long term. there's a big debate in terms of are we setting ourselves up for future? are we bringing the skills? we think about data, technology, digitization balled wianced wit manufacturing. how do we set the u.s. up that's more export driven and making good quality products to drive that forward and allow for other consumers on a worldwide basis, consumers in china, india, africa, malaysia, indonesia

where that middle class has purchasing power and look for those goods where they don't have them today and the u.s. is prime for that if we set our skilled workers the right way, if we can work on a global level playing field and if, in fact, we can be competitive both in terms of customer service and quality. >> let me quickly ask you about income and equality and the disparity between the bottom and the top earners. that's not a uniquely american problem. income inequality has been growing globally over the past decade, and most economists agree that income inequality slows growth. when you're of the mindset to redistribute wealth or let the free markets work, regardless, that is slowing growth. over the past term under president obama income inequality has grown, that disparity has grown more in one year than in 2002 to 2007, five years. what policies can we implement

to reduce that disparity and solve the problem of income inequality to get better growth? >> at the end of the day you're on the right issue, because the inequality there today is not good for anybody. it could be across the entire country or the individuals themselves. you need the people to survive and thrive. so the policy decisions have to be how do you insent the ambition for people who want to do better and have more? as a result give them the tools and techniques and skills to be successful. >> bob, thanks for joining us. do you have historic aam nemnes. put yourself to the test and find out how the rest of america did it. that's straight ahead. this happy couple used capital one venture miles

for their "destination wedding." double miles you can "actually" use. but with those single mile travel cards... [ bridesmaid ] blacked out... but i'm a bridesmaid. oh! "x" marks the spot she'll never sit. but i bought a dress! a toast... ...to the capital one venture card. fly any airline, any flight, anytime. double miles you can actually use. what a coincidence? what's in your wallet? [ all screaming ] watch the elbows ladies.

they say those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. you might be concerned we're doomed. the test of americans' knowledge of u.s. history knew only 17% of college graduates knew the point where the emancipation of proclamation. for the record is the gettysburg address. it's easy to throw your hands up and say, ladies and gentlemen, your american electorate. how much do you need to know in order to have an informed opinion of where the country should dp in the future? i'm not sure a boat load of historical data is all that necessary. after all we can't all be steve kornacki and remember that. in all seriousness, i don't think that humans are really designed to hold a bunch of data points and make unbiased judgments based on them. when i think about it, the way that we evolved, the thing we became good at were those gut

level instinctive judgments do i trust this person to go hunting with? >> yes. >> do i trust this person to take care of my kids? i'd glad to hear that. thank you. people don't judge based on the issues and they're not knowledgeable enough. the fact of the matter is we're best designed to make those gut level character judgments. >> part of what's said here by this group what will they learn is we're not educating our college students well enough. what they do is they look at which schools are providing a comprehensive education hitting people with science, math, economics, foreign language, composition, literature, and history. the schools that they say are actually doing the best, you can see a very cool video they make about all this stuff on whatw l whatwilltheylearn.com. they like baylor, brooklyn college, morehouse, pepperdine, air force, university of georgia, west point. aum of these are doing six out

of seven things and educating people. not your big brand names. >> not hearing my alma mater's name there. i want my money back, i think. i want to cut the people who respond to this poll a little slack here, because this is framed as another example of highwhow stupid americans are. only 17% know what the emancipation proclamation is. here's the actual question. the emancipation proclamation said -- >> most knew the basics of the emancipation prok vags involveded freeing the slaves. i don't think we should indict all of america for not knowing this. >> i'm all for better education and informing our electorate more, but it's reluctant to cast

dispersions on the way that people vote and based on what knowledge base, sort of the thomas frank what's the matter with kansas method of judging people for not voting their economic interests. that's problematic for a number of reasons. also, voting is an intensely personal and private experience, whether you krystal are thinking about your daughter when you go fl or i'm thinking about small business or toure is thinking about his retirement. >> really? >> whatever is going through your mind, this should be a judgeless kind of experience, i think. >> coming up, we've heard a lot about the 1% and 47% this election cycle, but up next we dig into another number, 70%. why it represents the true divide in america today. so you say men are superior drivers? yeah. then how'd i get this... [ voice of dennis ] ...safe driving bonus check? every six months without an accident, allstate sends a check. ok. [ voice of dennis ] silence. are you in good hands?

his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain. so, back to more pills. almost done, when... hang on. stan's doctor recommended aleve. it can keep pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ [ female announcer ] and try aleve for relief from tough headaches. that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs.

call today to request a free decision guide to help you better understand what medicare is all about. and which aarp medicare supplement plan works best for you. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and you'll never need a referral to see a specialist. there's a range of plans to choose from, too. and they all travel with you. anywhere in the country. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. call today. remember, medicare supplement insurance helps cover some of what medicare doesn't pay -- expenses that could really add up.

these kinds of plans could save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs... you'll be able choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. and you never need referrals. so don't wait. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. this easy-to-understand guide will answer some of your questions, and help you find the aarp medicare supplement plan that's right for you.

fire bad! just have to fire roast these tomatoes. this is going to give you a head start on your dinner. that seems easier [ female announcer ] new progresso recipe starters. five delicious cooking sauces you combine with fresh ingredients to make amazing home-cooked meals. i'm invisible understand because people refuse to see me. ralph wrote this in his classic novel. they say only my surroundings, themselves or their figments of their imagination. he published that 60 years ago, but it fits today because we're in the age of mass incarcerat n incarceration. 2.3 million americans are inmates right now, making america the world leader in incarcerati incarceration. our next guest says once behind bars, people become invisible

thus concealing the true tengts of racial disadvantage in america. with us now is becky petit and the author of "invisible men." welcome, professor. >> thank you for having me. >> you say that we're not counting the incarcerated when we look at society, when we make a portrait of society. what are we missing when we do that? >> i'd like to take you back to january 20th, 2009, the date of president obama's inauguration. on that day there was hope that we were becoming a post-racial society. myrie sear research shows a dis between barack obama and the largely invisible population of 2.3 in prisons or jails. approximately half are black. they're disproportionately low skilled high school dropouts and we don't include them in federal

statistics. myrie search uncovers this d disconnects, and we find a few key things. first, we find no improvement in the high school dropout rate among young black men since the early 1990s. conventional statistics overstate the high school graduation rate by 40%. and a number of people made the claim that president obama's election was driven by a historically high voter turnout rates among young blacks, and while the number of young blacks that voted was at historic highs, the fraction of the population that voted was the same among young black men was the same that voted in the carter/reagan election in 1980. >> i think we understand what you mean by post racial but certainly none of us who are really thinking about these things thought we were moving

toward post racial society because we elected barack obama, but the question that i want to ask you, you talk about -- a lot of us talk about 1 in 3 black men will spend time in prison in their life versus 1 in 106 white men and you say in your book, incarceration is so disproportionately concentrated among low skill black men, it's become a routine life event for them. what is the impact of this becoming a routine life event for so many americans? >> well, first, i want to point out that my research shows that about 1 in 3 african-american men can expect to spend time in prison, at least a year in prison, and the estimates that i generate for white men are more like 1 in 20. in the overall population, we see there's 2.3 million americans in prison or jail. that represents 1% of the adult pop lakes, but as you point out incarceration is disproportionately concentrated

among those with low levels of education and particularly so among african-americans. what my research shows is that when you hear things like the unemployment rate is 7.8% or the high school dropout rate among young blacks has declined, those data don't include people living in institutions. it's a household based survey. we have been collecting data in the same way since the depression, and as a consequence we've misrepresented progress. >> becky, i want to ask you about unemployment because the recession has been hard on everyone, but particularly on black males. unemployment among black males is at record highs under president obama. do you make a connection between unemployment and incarceration and if so, what kind of policies would you like to see enacted to fix that? >> absolutely. one of the observations that i and others have made is that so crime is at historic lows. we haven't seen crime rates as low as we have now since the

late 1960s, yet incarceration is at historic highs. and one of the features of this new system, mass incarceration, is that it's concentrated among those with low levels of education, exactly those same people that would be likely -- would likely be unemployed in the formal economy, and so that's an important feature, but what my research does is sort of unpacks this idea of the unemployment rate really is a measure of labor surplus, and what i'm interested in as a sociologist is what fraction of the population is working and so if we look at that number things are even more bleak than unemployment rate numbers suggest, and my research finds that among young black dropouts, 37% are incarcerated on any given day. >> right. becky, we're running really short on time. i wanted to get an observation here before we have to go, and that's, you know, we talk about

this invisibility. i think part of it is people who can speak to the experience of being incarcerated are disenen from -- disinen from chised politically. you look at it and to change that rule, who in politics, who in congress will vote -- >> no one. >> you're giving your opponent a great campaign ad. >> you do the time, you should be able to vote again and not wear a scarlet letter on your head for the rest of your life. professor, thaup very much. >> thanks for having me. >> up next, one small step and a giant leap into the record books. the video that made you want to scream.

[ heart beating, monitor beeping ] woman: what do you mean, homeowners insurance doesn't cover floods? [ heart rate increases ] man: a few inches of water caused all this? [ heart rate increases ] woman #2: but i don't even live near the water. what you don't know about flood insurance may shock you -- including the fact that a preferred risk policy starts as low as $129 a year. for an agent, call the number that appears on your screen.

when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this.

the coolest guy in the world right now is this guy. >> jumper away. u jumper away. >> that's felix baumgartner who yesterday jumped out of a helium balloon that was 24 miles above the earth. he was in free fall for 4 minutes and 19 seconds during which time his body hurtling to earth faster than the speed of sound. but his parachute opened and he touched down likely and walked away. why did he do it? probably for the same reason george mallory said when asked why he climbed mount everest, because it's there. baumgartner said on his website, it says everyone has limits, not

everyone accepts them. it's not that there's no fear in him or in george mallory or in fi philippe who walked on a wire strung between the two hours of the world trade center. they feel a compulsion to attack fear and they refused to be constrained by it. do-to-do daredevil things is to laugh in the face of self-preservation and that instinct hard wired into every organism. it's to challenge death and when you succeed you break some primal rule. after a near-death experience, you feel more alive. after you have stood in the doorway of a plane full of fear, your heart saying you go, i'm going to stay here in the plane, and you let go because you refuse to be defined by fear, then, my friends, you feel alive. how do i know? because i have jumped out of airplanes. this happened in florida about four years ago. jumping from around 8,000 feet. it was pretty hairy and it