it actually removes odors. [ laughs ] wow, that's incredible. just another way febreze helps you breathe happy. hello, everyone, it's high noon in the east, 9:00 in the west. the life and legacy of former presidential candidate george mcgovern. a brand-new nbc poll shows that the race is fighter than ever. nuclear talks between the u.s. and iran and a spoof of the last showdown on "saturday night live." 16 days until election day and first to front page politics at a blond new nbc poll today show that president obama and mitt

romney are tied among likely voters. president obama lea-- with juste day to go before the third and final presidential debate both sides are weighing in. >> we feel good about where we are, we're even ahead in this battleground states, and if you look at the early voting that's going on around the country, it's very robust and it's ve very --? it's a trend in our direction, and i have been all over the state in the last six weeks. the enthusiasm energy is on our side this year, i mean it's not like 2008 at all. we make three times more phone calls in all of 2008 with our volunteers. 25 more door knocks all of 2008. so something's different on the ground. >> we're getting our very first look inside the debate hall ahead of tomorrow night's debate. the debate takes place at lynne

university in boca raton, florida. the editorial board is backing the president on the basis of sound leadership. but th the nation needs to get more people back to work. new today, the white house is responding to a "new york times" report that -- it's not true that the united states and iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the american election. the president has made clear that the president will prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon and we will do what we must to achieve. >> george mcgovern died this morning at the age of 90.

we'll have more on his life and legacy later in the show. for more front page politics, i'm joined now by national political reporter for politico david catonese and anne cornbleau. i want to start with the new nbc news "wall street journal" poll showing the race is now tied at 57%. what does that tell you about how close this election might be on election day? >> it does show that romney has some pull in the national polls at least. but we need to burrow down into these state by state polls, seven to nine states that are really going to decide these elections, the sliver of decided voters is not really big. the national polls are good to look at for overall trends. but florida, virginia, ohio, these are the ones that really

matter to determine the electoral outcome. romney is showing an uptick in these states, but the overall electoral map still favor the president. >> we show that mitt romney leads mean by seven points and that president obama leads among women. it's got to be getting some comfort, i think probably to the obama campaign. i think what we're probably seeing is a continueded focusing on women because that's what traditionally republican candidates try to chip away at. on the other side, we have seen president obama working very hard to shore up the voechlt so i would expect that to continue through the very short time we have left. >> the u.s. and iran have agreed to hold one-on-one negotiations on the nuclear program. what do you make of this,

especially being so close to the foreign policy debate. >> these are very good reporters who worked on that story, i trust that they knew what they were writing when they wrote it. the white house has not left very much wiggle room at all in that denial. i suspect that the white house does not want to be seen doing anything that would be the least bit conciliatory. i think at this point, we just don't know. >> and david, how do you think that this will impact the vote given the impact on the economy? >> the timing will be impeccable so this will be the one of the important questions that drive this debate. it will be interesting to see how the president handles the question, does he flat out deny the story, does he say that the united states is open to one-on-one negotiations, but it hasn't been agreed to yet, it's

very sensitive being that the situation in iran is extremely sensitive. remember this debate is going to be mostly focused on the obama record. mitt romney has no foreign policy record. so it's going to be on the president's decisions in iran and what went on in benghazi and security concerns leading up to what happened in libya. so the president is going to be defending his record and milt romney has not laid out a lot of specifics on foreign policy. so it will be interesting to see if the president will be turning the tables on mitt romney. >> besides foreign policy, the romney campaign is going to keep hammering away -- >> if barack obama is re-elected what will the next four years be like? the debt will grow from $16 trillion to $20 trillion, taxes

on the middle class will go up by $4,000. >> is this the line of attack that we're going to be hearing from the romney campaign before the election? >> you're starting to see it in the closing arguments. there's a lot of certainties in that ad that will be interesting to see how the fact checkers for "the washington post" and elsewhere deal with because usually there's caveats, this could happen, this might happen, in this ad they're saying this will happen, so we'll have to see what's happening there, but it's no sign that the romney campaign will return to the economy during the last two weeks of the campaign. let's get more on iran. mike, good morning. what can you tell us about the obama administration's denials about these meetings with iran? >> reporter: as ann cornbleau just mentioned, there isn't a lot of wiggle room there, they

say it's not true. while the united states has been open to bilateral talks to sitting down one-on-one with iran, it's not happening yet, they're focusing on the p-5 plus one. that's the permanent five members of the team plus germany. you remember it was benjamin netanyahu, the israeli prime minister about a month ago before the united nations with that famous red marker and that chart that he had. literally and figuratively urging the united states to do so. so no shortage of intrigue here. david axle relrod used to work the white house now is in on the campaign had this to say this morning on "meet the press."

>> when he came to office, we were isolated on our position in iran and the world. today the world is unified against iran with us all because of the leadership of this president. >> reporter: that's david ax axelrod doing what he's supposed to do. the international community has led sanctions against iran. it's having a tough impact on iran. there's a currency crisis there. the argument from the administration today and last night is simply let those sanctions give it more time. that will eventually bring iran -- >> the president is facing his last debate, and by most accounts each of the candidates one -- what is the president doing to prepare for this final debate? >> i guess this is the rubber match. the president is in the mountains of maryland, that's about an hour's drive north of

here, he spent some time in debate camps in swing states in 2008, he's not doing that at this time. we know that we have been told that he's preparing for the debate. he leaves tomorrow directly from there and heads down to florida. >>. how president obama and the first lady will make history on thursday, plus the most memorable campaign ad ever. also the scenarios where the candidates could win the race without winning ohio. ♪ keys, keys, keys, keys, keys. ♪ well, he's not very handsome ♪ to look at [ sighs ] ♪ oh, he's shaggy

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some sad news to pass on

today. the former senator and outspoken opponent to the vietnam war reportedly passed due to natural causes. a proud liberal, he lost the election to richard nixon in the biggest landslide ever. >> come home, america, come home to the affirmation that we have a dream. >> reporter: in 1972, with the nation bitterly divided by the vietnam war, george mcgovern accepted the presidential nomination. his grass roots campaign had taken over the party ending the control of back room bosses and forever changing presidential politics, he went on to one of the biggest losses in history. the son of a methodist minister, george stanley grew up in the dust bowl of south dakota. the experience shaped his later work on behalf of farms and against hunger. world war ii i was a fighter

pilot. he safely landed his crippled bomber when he was shot over complex slovakia. six years later he was elected to the senate. he was one of the -- in the 1968 campaign when front-runner robert kennedy was assassinated, he launched a symbolic candidacy of his own. >> the number one priority in his campaign is to end the war in vietnam. >> mcgovern's opposition intensified after richard nixon expanded the war. in 1972, he was the leader of his party's anti-war wing. that year his grass roots organizati organization -- >> this is a people's nomination

and next january we will restore the nomination to the -- >> his campaign against nixon's political machine was lost almost from the start. republicans attacked amnesty abortion. and then two weeks after the convention, his campaign was staggered when running mate thomas eggalton -- eagleton expressed that he had undergone electroshock therapy. even in the watergate scandal couldn't save mcgovern from a landslide defeat. >> mcgovern carried only massachusetts and the district of columbia. >> we have pushed this country in the direction of peace and i

think each one of us loves the title of peacemaker more than any other office in the land. >> two years later, nixon and his vice president both left office in disgrace and by 1975, president jerald ford was presiding over america's chaotic exit from vietnam. george mcgovern in his later years spoke out about what mattered to him the most, ending military operations in iraq and afghanistan. to breathe, but with advair, i'm breathing better. so now i can be in the scene. advair is clinically proven to help significantly improve lung function. unlike most copd medications,

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. and welcome back to weekends with alex witt. now to your sunday weather, it's almost halloween and much of the country will see warmer temperatures, but cooler weather

brought mountain snow through parts of the northwest. now for the rest of the country's forecast, here's dylan with more. >> talking about halloween coming up in a couple of weeks, it's hard to believe. we are looking at some pretty chilly temps out in the northwest. and tomorrow we're going to see perhaps the biggest storm so far this season. temperatures are trying to warm up in the middle of the country with highs topping out in the middle of the country, and it's actually going to be about 15 degrees warmer than it has been and then what you would expect for this time of year. we are talking about this west coast storm, it's a huge area of low pressure, it's going to start affecting areas from central california up into oregon, especially mountain areas, especially even still above 5,500 feet where we could end up with about a foot of snow around this storm system. it will perhaps even produce

about an inch of rainfall in the san francisco area. this is going to be a pretty big storm across the west coast. elsewhere, besides a couple of showers through the dakotas, things are looking pretty quiet. for your sunday forecast, we're going to see the eastern half of the country look pretty sunny and mild too. >> just 16 days before the election we're recalling a few presidential firsts in these days of number one. but first, harvard is called the number one ranked college in the world. massachusetts is the most educated state in the nation. just over 39% of the residents of massachusetts have a degree. maryland 24%. now to the jobs that make jobs the worst. in a new pay scale.com survey, nearly 40% of fast food workers

said their job makes the world worse. that's more than double the worse outlook of gaming dealers and four times the dim view of telemarketers. now to presidential firsts, beginning with the first lady casting a ballot in history making fashion. >> i mailed in my ballot early, i voted for barack obama, just in case you were wondering. >> and we're just going to assume the president will be voting for himself when he votes on thursday. they'll be the first president and first lady to vote early in an effort to urge obama supporters to do the same. >> i don't believe in big government, but i believe in effective governmental action and i believe that's the only way the united states is going to maintain it's freedom. >> that's from the first ever televised presidential debate, 70 million americans watched this kennedy-nixon showdown with historians say turned the tied

for the senator from massachusetts. >> ike for president. ike for president. you like ike. >> that's one of the most memorable campaign ads ever. in 1952, dwight eisenhower was the first to run the single on tv. those are your number ones on weekends with alex witt. people have doubts about taking aspirin for pain. but they haven't experienced extra strength bayer advanced aspirin. in fact, in a recent survey, 95% of people who tried it agreed that it relieved their headache fast. visit fastreliefchallenge.com today for a special trial offer.

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staff rahm emanuel argued against mitt romney's economic general. >> romney wants to follow a set of policies where we have already seen the results where the middle class lose, actually in the last decade, the middle class lost more wealth than has ever occurred in american history. it's a clear choice of either moving forward or going back. >> joining me now for today's strategy talk. so jonathan, i want to start with you, we just heard with rahm emanuel and he's warning that a romney administration can take us back to the bush years, how can we know that the obama campaign's agenda won't keep us where we have been for the last four years. >> the economy has been moving forward slowly and eventually the economy always comes back, so the question is, is it better

to cut taxes and assume that's going to create sharp economic growth, which was tried and it failed, we actually have historical evidence now about that or to move forward with es and training our workforce for the future, closing the skills gap, investing in things that can prepare the country for the 21st century. i think mayor emanuel is right, that it's a very, very sharp choice that people have in terms of how they think jobs are created. and it's a little bit of a hard sell for obama because he's requiring that people look to history and to see that what romney's proposing has been tried and it has failed. what obama has done hasn't worked as well as we have liked, but it hasn't failed, it's worked better than it has in the past and we have moved forward, we're no longer losing 800,000 jobs a month, which was the situation as a result of the bush policies that the president

faced when he took office in 2009. >> and richard, i want to go to you, because you recently wrote that president obama can't win this election if it's a referendum on these last four years, can romney win if it's a referendum on the eight bush years? >> before i get to that, i want to commiserate with my friend jonathan about the demise of "newsweek." >> oh, thank you. "newsweek" has had people like jonathan who are not only great reporters, not only superb writers but big thinkers. i know that he has thought these things through and i don't know that the online forum will replace the weekly news magazine. it can replace it, but we can hope for the best and "newsweek" global will continue. i don't work there, but it hasn't gone completely out of

existence. >> and if we could redirect this back to the campaign. >> not that i mind the two of you from the point that it became clear that romney was going to be the nominee, the obama campaign set about spending somewhere close to a half a billion dollars on demonizing him personally. the average voter is not like us. they can't afford it to be a referendum on the last four years. we don't know yet if it's a failure or a success because we're not far enough from the future.

you know, the polls show, a ill ease with the direction of the country and that's why the obama campaign has acts to the what does he have to do to move the needle. >> i think you're perfectly write, he does need to get up above 47%. republicans are a little more enthusiastic this time. so even though democrats have a better ground game, republicans have more enthusiasm. so i think to really be confident that the president's going to be re-elected, he's

going to have to go above those numbers to make it. >> a set of numbers came from public policy voters. a drad holding firm last night. >> florida, ohio, virginia, all within two points. >> which have a huge mess on our hands. we still haven't figured out our election history in.

. >> a family thanksgiving story that went from the family table to the front lawn. but first the gop and a female vote. >> it was for many months a matter that was in search of itself and it damaged it's brand. >> i don't really understand why it is, it's so stark, when you look at one of the first thing he did when he came in office was pass the lily ledbetter act. he established a white house council on women and girls, he has worked through the small business administration, get more women into the workforce, into the economy, starting up

businesses, he has done more for women in my opinion than any president in my recent memory, in my lifetime. and he did it from stay one. so i'm surprised by these polls and i think women really ought our good friend donald trump being in first place for a while. it was for many months a party that was in search of itself, and it damaged its brand. i think if you look at the latest polls, it's pretty close. >> what has the tea party done to the republican party? there doesn't seem to be a lot of embracing of diverse thinking. how much has it damageded the republican party? >> i don't know how the republican brand is doing now, if you just look at the last election in 2010, the tea party was part of a coalition that

gave republicans the largest majority landslide in the history of the country. republicans more seats in 2010 than ever before. >> do you think that was because tea party economy, anything but what we have going on. >> it was a combination of both. i think that there are a lot of people who are very energized by calls for smaller government, i think this president overplayed his hand in 2009 and 2010. >> the tea party is really more of the same, the tea party is a combination of what elected me in '94 which is a combination of very conservative republicans and perot supporters. i spent more time in '93 and '94 going to united we stand

meetings, which is the perot group. i knew that sort of the wine and cheese republicans, the establishment republicans were not enough for me, but i would also get enough of what was really then sort of a tea party contention, plus the independents that supported perot to put me over the top and it did. >> you brought up something that this just brought to mind. with your father being who he is in the carter administration, you being a democrat. you've got these two brothers, one of whom works for mitt romney. what in the world is thanksgiving like around your table? we have had some bad ones, but we have had some really good ones. >> the iraq war? the fight on the front lawn. >> my mother got us sick one day but that's a different story. you know what? there's been some really -- to have the boys and my dad stirring the pop and my mom the artist and me, it's why i do this show right now, literally,

i am the family diplomat. i am made to do the "morning joe" show because of what my family put me through. my parents celebrated fighting it out over ideological differences, differences on world policy, on world view. it started like at age 5 we would be asked about, you know, the economy and i would be like well, first of all could you tell me what that is, i'm 5. but they wanted us to think and they wanted us to put ourselves out there and expose ourselveses and learn what it's like to really engage. and celebrate our differences. >> ian bra zin i can worked

for -- and they get into a fight. over thanksgiving dinner. the iraq war. it started in the -- and ended up on front line. >> it was very hateded. >> there was nothing of that. >> next week on office politics, we'll hear from more of alex's conversations with msnbc colleagues. now number five of our top five trending stories this hour, "saturday night live" opened with a spoof of the second presidential debate. >> i am willing to bet here and now that you have never in your life even once used the phrase terrorist act. >> get the transcript. get them. >> governor, he has in fact used the phrase terrorist act. >> candy, no, no, no, come on.

>> i'm afraid he did. >> candy, candy, candy. >> the sketch also showed mr. romney's son tag wanting to physically defend his father. [ wife ] a beached whale! lawn clippings! a mattress. a sausage link. mermaid. honey!? driftwood. come on, you gotta help us out here a little. [ male announcer ] febreze eliminates odors and leaves carpets fresh. ♪ [ male announcer ] febreze. eliminates odors and leaves carpets fresh. ♪

oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here.

hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. . candidates pun dits and past elections all indicate that ohio is a crucial swing state. >> larry, good morning. >> good morning. so let's look into your crystal

ball. your map looks an awful lot like nbc's. but you haven't put ohio or nevada into the tossup category. which ones would you put in the toss up category and which moneys are must wins for the president. >> we have only got four toss ups, colorado may be the closest state in the country, i think wisconsin has become very close. there may be the tinest obama edge there, the same with virginia. even where there's an edge, it can be reversed. is ohio getting closer? absolutely. is iowa getting closer? absolutely. the president banked enough votes in those two states to give him an edge but not much of one. >> you have outlined two

scenarios where either of the candidates could win the race without ohio. >> we have seen two presidents who won without ohio. franklin roosevelt and jfk in 1960. look, that doesn't mean it can't happen. we haven't had that many presidential elections. >> and new things happen every four years. how can he do it? it's easy to imagine virginia, it's pretty easy to imagine colorado, it's going to be tougher in wisconsin and new hampshire, but it can be done. >> well, romney has the

advantage because he has to sweep those tossup states whereas president obama could do it without colorado. romney would need all four of those tossup states. >> you got a tie scenario in the presidential race. tell me how that works and who would eventually win. >> we like to make people think about it before it happens. >> in some year it's going to happen, because there are many pathways that are reasonable given our current red versus blue split. but there are ways to do it. it's a matter of romney turning iowa and obama keeping ohio and the other swing states going to romney.

>> every state gets 1 vote in the hourpgs for president. yes, gargantuan california with 70 times the population of wyoming gets one vote and wyoming gets one vote. and you have to get 26 votes in order to be elected president. romney is likely to win that, but don't forget about the senate. the senate would have to decide the vice presidency. we think democrats look likely to get a majority of the senate, at least 50/50 where the tie being broken by a certain vice president who might be voting himself into office. so you could have a romney-biden

administration. how is that for a my grain? >> let's talk about is senate because we haven't paid much attention to two very important senate races, which party do you think will have control and which individual races do we see changing? >> the democrats clearly have the edge, you take all 100 seats, we see 48 democrats, already in or very likely in versus 43 republicans, that leaves nine seats up for grabs. and those nine seats in our view lean more heavily republican, but republicans would have to win at least seven and possibly eight to gain control of the senate. democrats only need to gain two or if they lose the presidency, three. it's pretty obvious that

democra democrats -- >> next a repeat of round two, what to expect from the president tomorrow night when hearing from the traveling press secretary from president obama's re-election campaign. [ female announcer ] we were flattered when regenerist beat a $100 cream. flabbergasted when we creamed a $500 cream. for about $30 regenerist micro-sculpting cream hydrates better than over 20 of america's most expensive luxury creams. fantastic. phenomenal. regenerist.

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>> a senior official told nbc

news that there have been back channel talks with iran, but there's been no meeting scheduled. >> first the white house has made absolutely clear that those reports are not true. any stories about our relationship with iran, any talks that are happening, at the same time, the president makes absolutely clear that he will not allow iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. he has brought an international coalition together to bring about strong sanctions from iran that will start working. i expect they'll be part of the conversation tomorrow. >> this was a topic on "meet the press" today. let's take a look at senator rob portman and what he had to say on me"meet the press." >> it's another example of a national security leak from the white house and there's been a

lot of that. >> this story is almost certainly going to come up in tomorrow night's debate. >> i expect the president will talk about his record the sanctions he has put in place and for making sure they do not acquire a nuclear weapon. mitt romney would have to answer the question on what he would do differently. >> by he made a very strong and

passionate case for why he's a better middle class. there are a lot of economic issues, including issues like china and trade, that you may be part of the conversation as well. he's prepared, he's ready to be part of the conversation. his record stands on its own, he has spent the last four years making the country stronger, safer than the rest of the world. he has put in place economic sanctions on iran and he'll hopefully have the opportunity to talk about that. mitt romney has spent a lot of time telling people what they want to hear, but he'll have a lot of questions to answer tomorrow night. >> in the past president obama's foreign policy record has gone from an easy win to a legitimate talking point for the obama campaign.

>> i think the one issue you're talking about here is the president is the first to say there's no one more committed to getting to the bomb 3w0789 of what happened here, this is an issue he's focused on in his role as commander in chief. he made clear that being commander in chief is not about leader ship. which is what mitt romney is bringing to the table. i know they'll talk about a range of topics tomorrow evening. the president is certainly happy to speak about any of them. and make sure that we're doing everybody possible to find out what happened in libya and make sure we make changes moving forward. >> what do you think the president needs to do to retake

the lead with just two weeks left? >> it's a range of about six to nine swing states out there in the country. there were some polls that came out with some very comfortable leads in wisconsin and iowa and a couple more states. right after the debate, the president's going to be spending two different states on the campaign trail. >> we have got a while to go and i think he's going to be pounding the payment until the very end. >> and speaking of that newly released nbc/"washington post" poll, we'll talk about that next. [ brooklyn accent ] 50% more simoleons. [ western accent ] 50% more sawbucks. ♪

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to weekends with alex witt. we're just 16 days from the elect sthaund attacks are flying between the obama and romney campaigns just one day before the third and final presidential debate in florida. >> the obama campaign has not been one about the future. it hasn't been talking about what they would do over the next four years to fix the economy. >> mitt romney has run as the ideal tea party candidate, severely conservative the last six years running for president and the last six weeks of the campaign, he's suddenly moving to the middle? what about all these policiepol? the tax cut for those he lost. >> with. >> the has caken in one state

colorado is the largest paper in that state, the denver post announced an enforcement of a seconds term. it will be a -- meanwhile president obama's prospective running mate will hold a -- vice president biden met with voters in florida this weekend. new today, the white house is responding to a "new york times" report that the u.s. and iran have agreed to one-on-one negotiations over a nuclear program. the president has made clear that he will prevent iran from getting a fluke clear weapon.

senator george mcgovern has passed away early this morning. now for a closer look inside the nbc news political poll chuck todd breaking down the numbers on today's "meet the press." >> this is among likely voters, david, 47/47. not all tied races are equal. sitting at 48/47 is a good number for the challenger, not a good number for an incumbent. among men, romney a 10-point lead, let's go to women, this is interesting. president, an eight-point lead here, this is actually his smallest lead among women that he's had all year long.

a few other thing inside the numbers here, david. a narrow lead but way inside the margin of error. >> speak of the battle ground, i want to go there a minute. if you look at where both campaigns think each is ahead, the south, you got to give it to romney here. they think narrowly ahead, for the president, they think nevada, looks good for him and new hampshire, so then you look where's this race getting decided? those four states, colorado, david, might be the closest in the country, but it's the midwest. that is the ticket to 270 electoral votes zplchlts and you can watch much more of "meet the press" with david gregory that's coming up next at 2:00 eastern time. let's get more on president obama and mitt romney's preparation for the white house. what is the white house saying

about the "new york times" meeting with iran? >> reporter: they're saying it's flat out not true. that makes both sides in this, the united states, the administration here, and the iranian government, the foreign ministry saying it's not true. it's all based on a u.s. times story that came out this morning, it says the u.s. has agreed to sit down one-on-one, not the six country panel that's been trying to sit down with iran over the course of the last several years. one-on-one between iran and the united states. here's the kicker, it would happen after the election. david axle rod, he's now out of chicago with the campaign, he was asked about it today on "meet the press." here what he had to say. >> there's a tremendous disquiet in iran, their currency has dropped in value by 50%, their oil business has dropped by 50%.

there's restiveness in their political environment there and they're feeling the heat. and that's what the sanctions were meant to do. >> telling us about sanctions that were led by the united states imposed by the international community and the sanctions apparently has really caused a great deal of comfort domestically within iran is oil sanctions that kicked off over the summer. what's at risk is enrichi ining plutonium. urging the united states to get tougher with iran, to get tougher with that -- all sides agree that iran must not ultimately get a nuclear weapon. what they can agree on is how tough they can get, what deadlines to draw, what red lines to draw. >> certainly this issue is going

to come up tomorrow night in the foreign policy debate. what can you tell us about what the president's doing today to get ready for the presidential debate? >> we know that china and iran are going to be at the forefront of that debate. he's into relative seclusion, the presidential retreat, camp david, he's been there since friday evening, he's been there all weekend, he will leaf directly from there as a matter of fact and head down to florida for the debate at boca raton. now to the latest on the republicans, as mitt romney prepares for monday night's debate with president obama. vice presidential candidate paul ryan is on the campaign trail this weekend. he was in pennsylvania and ohio yesterday. and today he's in the iowa. ron mott is with congressman ryan, what's going on behind

you? >> reporter: it's a beautiful day here in council bluffs. paul ryan expected to hold a rally here in about 40 minutes or so. and a lot of people around the country are probably wondering why so much attention why do these politicians pay so much attention to iowa? candidates come here to test the waters for a presidential run. >> the president has a rather comfortable lead here, an eight-point lead here in iowa, a six-point lead up in wisconsin, if the president is able to hold those two states, it really makes the pathway to 278 much easier for him. they spent a lot of time here and i expect in the next 16 days will probably come back to iowa, they believe that the folks here in iowa want to hear governor

romney's message about making energy independent. it costs a lot of money to run those farms and governor romney is pledging that if he is elected president, he will be able to bring 2 costs down by bringing that oil pipeline and refining that oil and keeping it in the country. we'll see how it ultimately wraps up here in iowa, but the president at this point, with a commanding lead in the polls, but the polls don't elect presidents as the voters do on november 6. >> what are you hearing about governor romney's debate preparations today. >> he's off to a relaxing start in the sunshine state. he went to church and apparently was the coin flipper between his staff and the press. he's going goat together with rob portman who's his debate

partner. foreign policy obviously typically gives the president, the incumbent the advantage, mitt romney has only gotten those briefings over the past month or so. nbc's ron mott in iowa, always good to see you. >> and joining me now for front page politics, the contributing editor for "newsweek." good morning or good afternoon to both of you, thanks for joining me. national and swing state polls are all over the place t nbc news "wall street journal" poll today has president and mitt romney tied at 47%. what does president obama or president obama have to do to move the needle here in the last few weeks? >> you have to look at the

battleground states and i think on the democratic side, they're still hoping that their small but durable leads in ohio and substantial leads in wisconsin and iowa, if the president can carry those two states he gets 270 elect moral states and that's the ball game. and on mitt romney, they believe that momentum continues and momentum is the gold standard in foreign politics. there's a little bit of a breeze there and he is closing the margin in these battle ground states which is making democrats very nervous. >> steve, you cover the white house and by most accounts, what do we have to see from the president's tomorrow? >> we'll see him with a great command of the issues, obviously

he's been president for four years, he's been negotiating all these issues on afghanistan, iraq, he was deeply involved in the decisions in libya and the decisions to topple the government of cad daf did, he doesn't have to spend his debate prep going over the issues. he has to assure the miracle public, you're in good hands, you're in safe hands with me with my hand on the tiller. governor romney has a little bit of the opposite challenge from the same perspective. he needs to drive home certain points maybe attacking the president's response from the libya attacks a month ago. mitt romney has to look sobering, comforting, he haslem to look like he could handle that 3:00 a.m. call. i think that's his main goal. >> there's this "new york times" report that the white house is denying which says that the u.s. and iran have agreed to

one-on-one negotiations about iran's nuclear program. how do you think this is going to impact tomorrow night's debate. >> i trust the "new york times" reporting. i think there's something going on there, whether they actually nailed down talks that will commence right after the election, that's probably not true so the white house is denying it and so is tehran. but there are grounds to be optimistic that the sanctions are taking their toll and there's likely to be talks after the election of whoever is president. i take heart about this, this is not talk about war, it's talk about diplomacy and if it's 100% true, 80% true or 60% true, i'm sticking with it. >> what are you hearing from the white house about this. >> clearly the white house is denying it and i don't know if it's true or not, and i don't

trust anyone except my own reporting. but it sets up a new debate question tomorrow night. it will raise this prospect that there are talks under way, that there's something that might happen a couple of weeks after the election that might settle this, move the ball. i think it feeds both camps, i think it feeds the president's argument i think it feeds governor romney's argument to his base that maybe this guy can't negotiate, he's been negotiating for four years, we don't know what's coming, it may just be an october surprise. >> what do you expect to see from both camps heading into this final stretch, are we going to see new attacks or are they going to be hammering home what they have already been say ing. i think we're going to see millions more in attack ads, we're going to see -- i would like to see from each of these

candidates kind of a closing argument as to really why the country should entrust itself to them and i would like to see a vision, if you will, of the next four years, that's more than just rhetoric, that has enough substance to it that people can believe that there's some credibility to it. i don't think either candidate has done that convincingly and so i think there's still room for each of these men to sort of win america's hart, if you will. >> well, still ahead, the florida keys to victory in the battle for the white house, yuck yuck, we talk to voters about what's driving their vote in this key swing state. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?

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welcome back to weekends with alex witt. apair of new polls show governor mitt romney with a small lead in battleground florida. the cnnorc poll shows romney with -- with the shifting polls, how can the campaign seal the deal. lester holt reports from tampa. >> unlike a lot of folks who come here, these visitors continue come for the sunshine. >> we will win florida, we're going to win in november. >> rather the political glow that comes with winning florida's 29 electoral votes, more than 10% of the number

needed to win the election. >> florida is what i call a check mate state for president obama, he somehow carries florida, then it blocks any significant past -- >> which of course is why president obama and relate nomly are not -- >> since may, obama has spend close to 55 milli$55 million, f who's democratically challenging. >> a recipe for political drama. >> there, there, there. >> yes, it's the state that held the nation in suspension, 12 years ago with that infamous bush versus gore ballot recount.

all eyes are shifting to florida's political bellwether. >> florida sits within -- cuts across the center of the state. on this side the democratic leaning south, over here, the republican strong holds of the north and it's not out of the question that this election could be decided by folks who live along this corridor vote. >> politics with a cup of cuban coffee and a side of passion is always on the menu at the west tampa sandwich shop. >> if barack obama cannot run the biggest business in the world. he doesn't have the wherewithal to do it. >> eventually the conversation always comes around to -- >> jobs, job, jobs.

tampa like the rest of the country is struggling to return from a bad economy. >> the economy really hasn't gone anywhere in the last four years. >> window installer gregory brown says with local jobs scarce, he sometimes travels hundreds of miles to find work. >> i had $30,000 in the back when president obama went into office now we have 1/10th of that and probably living paycheck to paycheck. >> those sales appear to be picking up. >> we had a better unemployment number, we would see an even better housing market. >> while americans will be spared the drama of hanging chads, there's still going to be a lot of drama come election night. >> everything that happens in florida is going to matter.

>> that was nbc's lester holt reporting from tampa. and you may see foreigners at your poll site on election day. a u.n. affiliated group is reporting 44 reporters around the u.s. the observers will look out for systemic voter suppression. the groups mentioned will be placing monitors in pennsylvania, ohio, florida, texas and wisconsin but conservative leading groups fighting election fraud are criticizing that move. kudos to "the washington post" for an entertaining slide show. we'll start with lindsay lohan in expressing her support for mr. romney. she declared that unemployment is very important for now. for president obama, he's received the support of another foreign actor ron jeremy and

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at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪ breaking news now from wisconsin, police and emergency teams are responding to the brookfield mall in wisconsin. there are an awful lot of first responders, ambulances and fire trucks on the scene. now police also say that the shooter has not been taken into custody. there are of course fears that this is a public shooting in wisconsin. we will bring you more information on that as we get it. turning now to the final preparations that are under way at lynne university, the site of tomorrow night's debate, the last of this election. the tradition has held a story

and often controversial place in american politics. presidential historian michael beschloss. >> imagine this can all be over tomorrow night, four debates in 19 days. >> what will we talk about? >> you said that there are three lessons to learn from past debates. >> well, three lessons from the first debate i was talking about. in terms of the most recent debate between romney and president obama, one of the most difficult things is for a challenger to criticize an incumbent president to his face, which he did pretty well in the first debate, mitt romney did in denver with that kindly reference at the beginning of the president's winning anywhere. the last one last thursday, that was probably the most icy town hall debate i have ever seen and the question is going to be how voters reacted to mitt romney being so fierce to president obama really just a few feet

away. >> kennedy and nixon, if you look back at that debate, they seem rather friendly since that night. >> have the candidates personalities evolving? >> in those days, people were pretty unemotive. people think of john kennedy smiling and telling jokes at press conferences, but at that first debate, he was thought of as a very young, very inexperienced senator from massachusetts. there was no anger, there was no harshness, and that's the way you criticize an incumbent. >> who were some of the best debaters over time. i think kennedy would say without the debates, he would not have been president. so in a way you have to see it in terms of results. bill clinton for his debate

especially, he was able to alleviate a lot of doubts. before those debates began, clinton was not a sure thing, by the end of that last debate, he was. >> i think if there's an argument between the two candidates and she has information that will shed light on what she knows to be the truth about the situation, i think that's our obligation as journalists is to tell the public the truth. we're truth tellers, that's what we're supposed to be doing. >> i know there was a lot of debate after the fact about candy crowley's role in that debate. how has the moderator's role evolved over time.

>> the candidates a lot more room to basically argue among themselves, for most of the history of debates, as you know, these were very structured things. two minutes for one candidate, one minute to rebut and so on. that's been out the window this fall. >> who do you think the most effective debate moderators have been in the past. >> in 1988 -- the best thing about that is given the limited time, 90 minutes, that really reduces the amount of time that we have to speak.

so i think the biggest change was to a single moderator. >> you hear a lot that the debates don't matter, but this election cycle, we did see mitt romney get a bump after his -- we're going to be making these decisions on the basis of paid commercials. >> most people have pretty definitely reviews about president obama, most people did not know mitt romney even as early as this fall. >> and we're going to then. >> police and emergency teams are responding to a shooting at the brookfield square mall in brookfeld, wisconsin. police say they don't know how

many victims there are, of course the greatest concern is that there could be mass kaushlgities. >> we'll bring you more information as we get it. >> now something tells me that perhaps -- are we going to stay with this shot here and follow this breaking news for a moment. first responders on the scene. as police continue to work a scene here. right now we're going to take a quick break as we continue to monitor this developing story for you. 'ppu;v?2v.ac=u/l4(p/wlñ by the way they clean themselves in the bathroom. try charmin ultra strong. with a new duraclean texture, charmin ultra strong helps you get clean. plus it's four times stronger than the leading value brand. and you can use up to four times less.

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they say the shooter has not been apprehended. the concern here is that this could be a mass shooting at a public location, similar to what we saw in august, just a few miles from here, about 30 miles from this location in brooklyn. >> we don't know of any casualties, any injuries. police are saying that he has not been apprehended. again you're looking at aerial shots out of brookfield, wisconsin where police are investigating a shooting across the street from a mall. we can see in these aerials here there are a number of first responders on the scene, ambulances, fire trucks and the like and police have set up a command post across the street.

so this is a developing situation at this time. now again, we don't know what the situation is in terms of any injuries, any fatalities but police are on the scene and they are investigating the situation and it is a developing story that we are following. >> police you see a number of police on the scene, across the street from a mall. the gunman has not been apprehended so this is developing and certainly hopes this will be resolved quickly and safely soon. we continue following this story and we'll be back with more news in just a moment. announcer ] stp searching and start repairing.

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police are investigating a shooting about 25 miles west of milwaukee. police are saying they don't have information about potential fatalities, they also say that the shooter has not been taken into custody. we are getting some reports that this incident happened around 11:00 this morning and there are reports as well that this took place at a hair salon, that it either took place at or near a hair salon and spa across the road from the mall. in that area a number of stores have gone on lockdown as police continue to investigate this incident. there are a number of first responders on the scene and we saw when they were able to zoom in a little closer that there were a number of ambulances and fire trucks and the like. police have also set up a command post across the street

from the mall. can you talk me through what the procedures would be in a case like? police are alerted of a shooting and then what? >> unfortunately this is not all that unusual. we're all aware of the shooting that took place in the theater and there were shootings in malls in texas and new jersey. most of these mall shootings, especially as you suggest something may have to do with the hair salon business. we usually see -- what law

enforcement will be doing right now is first of all to care for the injured of course that we know that have gone to the hospital. secondly, they'll be trying to get witness statements as well as any surveillance video cameras that might be available aet either at the store or the malls themselves. to see who might have done this before he or she is able to act out again. >> in terms of the random acts of violence you mentioned, we did see that in wisconsin with the sikh temple shooting, we saw it in colorado with the a aurora shooting. so what do you find with single gunmen who commit these acts of sflils. >> in this country we don't have a whole lot of thinkers when it comes to acts of violence.

we see people acting out what they saw, how they saw someone else. when we see people with some ty crisis in their life, unfortunately, with 310 million americans and 280 million guns, whatever side of the gun issue you take, there is a tremendous amount of firearms in america and many times when people are trying to find way of conflict resolution, instead of talking, they choose to talk from a barrel of the gun. >> it seems we've heard a lot more of these incidents lately with high-profile ones i've mentioned, there was one in new york city at the empire state building. are we just hearing more about these? or statistically are we seeing more of these random acts of gun violence? >> i think violence breeds violence. i think that's what we see sometimes. again when people see others act out in violence, for some, that becomes the chosen way to

resolve whatever conflict is going on in their life. many of these incidents, there has been some connection, we've seen people that are complete innocents and realize anyone who is the victim of an act of violence like this, we would consider an innocent victim. but what we're likely to find is some type of connection, based upon the circumstances. there may be some connection between the shooter and at least one of his victims and therefore, everybody else is just in the wrong place at the wrong time. the same of it all is that on a sunday morning, a sunday afternoon in america, you can't be out with that potential always hanging there. now acts of violence are still very, very rare in this country. but unfortunately there are people who will still turn to this. and law enforcement right now will be trying to find this person very quickly. should it have been some type of dispute. this individual will probably

running, hiding right now as opposed to be looking for someplace else to commit another act of violence. but it falls upon law enforcement to make this identification and hopefully arrest quickly before anyone else can be injured. >> clint, i want you to hang on one second. some other questions i want to ask you, i want to update viewers that are joining us now. police and emergency teams, responding to a shooting at the brookfield square mall, 20 miles west of milwaukee. we have very little information, police say they don't know how many victims there are, we don't have any reports on potential fatalities. police also say that the shooter has not been taken into custody. this incident happened around 11:00 and witnesses are telling news outlets that it happened at or near a salon and spa across the road from the mall that we're looking at. a a number of the stores in the area have gone on lockdown. we've been talking to clint van zandt, a former fbi profiler

about the situation. when you have a situation where you may have an ongoing situation of violence where people's lives are in the balance how do police balance the need for rescue and getting people out of harm's way and apprehending the suspect and making sure that no more people get hurt. >> this is the challenge that spreads law enforcement very thin in a situation like this. their first responsibility is going to be to the insured and so police and emt and firefighters and others will rush to the scene to try to help the injured. they'll have to stabilize the area. they'll have to identify any witnesses, once they've taken care of the victims and then -- >> clint, i hate to cut you off, because you always give me such great information. i want to hang on for one second. but i want to now go to wtmj, a local news outlet, we'll listen in on the reporting they have on the story. >> once it let's go over it again. he described as a black male,

around 6'1", weighing 270 pounds, he is described as being bald with brown eyes and was last seen leaving the brookfield area, driving a 2006 black mazda. it is believed that he's potentially heading towards the brownsville area. i've been in contact with sources throughout the milwaukee county and they're waiting for actual bulletin to bulletin to come out for this individual so that area agencies can be on the lookout for this 2003 black mazda. but again the concern right now, where is this individual exactly if he had more ammunition on him as many of those witnesses were describing, could he potentially harm someone else? and at this point we don't have a motive as to what prompted this individual to go inside this salon and start this mass shooting. but again, police agencies across milwaukee county and also waukesha county are awaiting an

official bulletin. black man, 6'1", weighing 270 pounds with a bald head and brown eyes. the key here i believe is that he was last seen in this area driving a 2003 black mazda. we're going to continue to follow this angle of the story here in the news room and check in with some of my sources throughout milwaukee county and waukesha county and we'll bring them to be in the breaking news update. >> is at this point settle any reason to believe that suspect is not acting alone? could there be any other suspect that the police are looking for? >> at this point we're trying to get confirmation. we don't know if the individual jumped into the driver's seat or if someone else was with him. this is a very fluid and breaking situation. as soon as i can gather more information, i'll pass it along to you and our viewers. >> we want to bring you up to speed on what's going on. a shooting at the azana salon and spa, a building you might be familiar with if you want to

take my computer screen over here, we'll show people what the exterior picture of what the spa looks like. we don't want to show a live picture now in light of the fluid breaking news situation out there. but again, this is on moorehood road, 200 north mooreland road, south of the blue mound road, next to the mcdonald's you see after he get ott of mooreland road. right now police say they're searching for a suspect, a black male. approximately 6'1", 270 pounds, driving a 2003 black mazda, possibly headed for brown deer. as you just heard our jermond terry say, we don't know what the motive in the shooting would be or if the man was acting alone. what woo doe know is at least four people have been taken to freighter hospital and three more may be on the way. >> one more indication we may be able to glean from the very specific description of the suspect, is that this is a known individual.

that we're not getting ranges of heights or ranges of weights and we're getting a very specific vehicle description. indicative of somebody that is known. that could put people in the area at some amount of ease. that this was not a random incident. still just as terrible of somebody known to somebody inside the salon and spa went in to commit an atrocity on a sunday morning. but that it is not random. may be something we can glean from the fact that we have such a specific fix on who law enforcement are now looking for. >> we want to point out that this salon and spa is right across the street from brookfield square mall. the picture you're looking at right now. as you can imagine, several stores in brookfield square mall are closed, they've been shut down. do not go into that area if you don't have to several people were in the mall at the time of the shooting. people are there now, trying to keep people away from the area, as the search for the suspect

continues. there's a staging area around the mall. if this is an area you were planning on heading to this afternoon, you want to avoid the area. >> let me give you the lay of the land. as people are tuning in, the azana salon and spa. on the east side of mooreland road. across the street from the mall in brookfield. directly across the street. you're going to find the brio restaurant and the barnes & noble store there. >> and we want to head out to todd hicks who is standing directly across the street from azana salon and spa, what are you seeing out there now? >> well to bring you up to speed, what is happening now, this is an active situation. let me give you a little idea as where we are. azana spa over my shoulder, this is the building where all of this allegedly taking place this morning. the spa we understand opened at 11:00 this morning.

this is the building where witnesses say, somebody opened fire inside the building. as you can see, it is surrounded by police officers at this time. i spoke with one gentleman who said when i came on the scene, that his girlfriend was still inside of the building at the time. as all of this was unfolding. we have seen members of the tactical team enter the building. it's not clear what process they are in. in dealing with the situation. or if even if that suspect, that alleged shooter, remains still inside right now. we do have a brief description of him. we understand he is african-american, around 6'1", 270 pounds, he is bald with brown eyes. he may be and official sources tell us he may be from brown deer. >> reports of a shooting in wisconsin. we're continuing to get information in. we will continue to follow it. msnbc comes back with live news coverage at 3:00 p.m. coming up next is