>> explain why chuck todd, no button for christmas, come on, burberry. >> we have to get these chuck toddout. i think we're running low on them. they're such a popular item dating back to the conventions. we're going to get some of those out for parting gifts. parting gifts for what, i don't know. "morning joe" starts right now. after the excitement of '08, given the power of incumbency, you got bin laden, you did not expect to be sitting on a more substantial race than we are as we sit here today. >> no, brian. listen, you guys have some short memories. folks in your business were writing me off a year ago saying there's no way i would win. so you know, these things go in ebbs and flows. you know, the one thing i've tried to always be is just steady in terms of what i believe in, who i'm fighting for. you know, i think that one of the qualities i bring to bear in

this campaign is people see what did i say i was going to do in 2008, and what have i delivered, and they can have some confidence that the things i say i mean. >> good morning, everybody. that's a beautiful shoot. >> bales of hay there. >> it's thursday, october 25th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set, we have national affairs editor for "new york" magazine and msnbc political analyst, john heilemann. we also have pulitzer prize-winning historian jon meacham. >> that's a nice smile. >> yeah. hi, willie. >> and willie geist is here as well. willie, you know, when presidential campaigns are coming down to the final stretch, we all know who they go to, right? >> right. >> how do you set the shot up, right? >> exactly. >> what's the angle? what's the image? and who do you go to? you go to tv's own willie geist, right? >> you do. >> let me ask you, willie, what were you thinking yesterday when you decided i'm going to put the

president of the united states down in some corn. >> by a hay bale. >> with bales of hay all around to make brian williams look like he's one of the country bears in country bear jamboree. what's going on there? >> i guess the story can be told now, brian did call me. >> okay. >> yesterday about noon. >> right. >> said geist, what do we go with? and i said, you're going to want to get yourself some bales of hay because it's just two guys in blue suits hanging out on the farm. >> it's like nixon walking, you know, along the pacific coastline in his wing tips. >> ribozo. >> or you doing a three-hour show with food on your fleece. >> it's a stainable fleece. >> if you have a belly, you don't even have to reach that far. >> that's harsh really early in the morning. she's just like right in there. >> what, are you talking to remnick? is this the revenge of david remnick?

>> i thought that was a fascinating conversation. i think you did a fairly good job with it. >> i did apologize on twitter last night. >> you were vicious. >> no, no, no. i think it's great when conversations get heated. >> i do, too. i love it had. i thought it was compelling. >> the thing is, i like david. were you watching? were you stoned? >> well, i was, but i was watching. >> the thing is about david, i've got great respect for him, i read his magazine all the time. i feel comfortable saying that rather than somebody i don't know as well. so meacham. >> michael deaver. >> michael deaver. >> it was deaveresque, the hay. >> brian williams in the hay, barack obama in the hay. >> they had a lot of hay. >> look at the american flag in the background. >> if you look carefully, you can find glen campbell and roy clark. >> at some point can we listen to what was said in the interview? because it was fascinating. >> no. as howard kurtz says, we're all about style, not substance. >> brian's team was amazing. >> but we can talk about two

stoners and kung fu panda knocking out the best player. >> that's all it takes. that's all it takes. >> how about the giants, man. >> the kung fu panda, mr. sandoval -- >> historic. >> three home runs in one game. only the fourth player in history to ever do that are reggie jackson, babe ruth and albert pujols. he's a human panda. he hit that pitch 95-mile-an-hour justin verlander heat up at the shoulders. and he took that thing 411 feet to dead center field. that was basically the end of the game. then he comes back and does it again a couple innings later. >> willie, this is historic, obviously. verlander, though, speaking of three, he's lost his last three world series games. he just doesn't come to play. >> and let us just recall mr. michael barnicle, that great baseball sage, great baseball oracle telling us that verlander would be unhittable, unbeatable, just no question about it. >> willie, it was impressive stuff. >> verlander said after the game

he knew when he was warming up he didn't have it. he said that after the game. he said he wasn't locating his pitches. >> there's the panda again. >> there's the third home run. this is the kind of thing that makes you an icon. you think of reggie jackson, the three-home run game in the world series. >> '77. >> sandoval did it last night. >> barry zito, not even on the postseason roster. >> speaking of stoner. >> saved the nationals. saved the national league championship season. >> a horse, man. >> 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball. and then is relieved by tim lincecum. two consecutive cy young award winners pitching in the same game. >> two stoners. >> and two of the most baked pitchers in the major leagues. >> seriously. >> shut the tigers down. >> it's not quite doc ellis. >> but they were vaporizing late last night. >> we have frittered away 5 1/2 minutes at the top of the show. >> let's stop now. >> very impressive. >> we have so many polls that come at us. >> yes.

>> these days that, you know, once in a while one comes along that i think's pretty significant. and with 12 days out, "time" magazine released a new poll in ohio. i don't think this is one of those that the romney campaign can just flick away because they love flicking away these polls. they're skewed. no. i think this is pretty significant. this is the second poll that shows mitt romney behind outside the margin of error in ohio. >> the poll shows the president leading by a slim five-point margin, 49%-44% among likely voters. a big part of mr. obama's advantage in the buckeye state has to do with early voting. among those who have already cast their ballot, president obama leads mitt romney by a 2-1 margin. 60%-30% according to this poll. among those who have yet to vote, "time" magazine has it dead even, 45%-45%. and also the recent cbs news poll out earlier this week showed the president with a five-point lead in ohio,

50%-45%. >> let's put up the "time" poll, 49%-44%. it's coming. if you're, john heilemann, a month out and it's 49%-44%, i would call that a close race. if you are 12 days out and you're behind five points in consecutive polls, i'd say, you know what? it's kind of an uphill lift. if you are mitt romney running against barack obama's get-out-the-vote machine, i would say five points looks more like a mountain than a mole hill. we're getting to the point now that if these polls don't start closing to two or three points, tie goes to obama in every single state outside the deep south because of his turnout operation. nobody's even suggesting in the romney camp that they've got a turnout operation as good as obama's, right? >> the romney campaign -- there is no romney turnout operation. it is all handled by the rnc. they're not even doing it.

so really the romney turnout operation is driven by how good a state party's operation is and the national party within that state. there are some states where it's very good, and there are some states where it's very poor. ohio, there's just no question that the obama campaign has a much better turnout operation. >> they've been on the ground for five years. >> and they've certainly been on the ground in force for a year and a half. they spent a lot of money. and you've also got the situation, as i think i've said on the show a million times, there's only one state in the whole country where organized labor is actually organized. it's ohio. so you have the turnout -- you have the turnout operation of the labor unions plus the obama turnout operation in ohio. five points is a big gap when it's settled at five. you know, it was up at eight. but it's settled at five and it's not getting tighter. >> it's been at five for a week. you question you always ask, mika, it's sitting at five now. what happens over the next 12 days that changes the dynamics? well, there's not a debate. you've got 30-second ads and you've got these guys running around campaigning.

if it really is five points like these two polls have shown this week, that is a very, very heavy lift for mitt romney. and that means that if these polls are accurate, he'd better win his southern swing states. he'd better win iowa. he'd better win colorado. new hampshire and figure out how to pick up a couple more points. >> and you guys were talking about turnout. the obama campaign is out with a new ad that's airing in eight swing states with an urgent plea to get out the vote. take a look. >> 537. the number of votes that changed the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call. >> the difference between what was and what could have been. so this year, if you're thinking that your vote doesn't count, that it won't matter, well, back then there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. make your voice heard. vote. >> i'm barack obama, and i approve this message.

>> wow! we've got a public policy poll from nevada. first, jon meacham, you were responding to the ad? >> it's very effective, i think. >> yeah, it is. >> it has a virtue, as dr. kissinger likes to say, of being true. >> the added value of being true. >> there's always that. i voted yesterday. >> did you really? >> in tennessee. and it was -- it's not a wildly democratic precinct. >> right. >> it was full at 3:00 in the afternoon. i e-mailed john geer, vanderbilt political scientist. he wrote back -- >> morrison's, the buffet was going on about 3:00. was that why? >> it was captain d's had a special. he thought one thing that was happening is in nonbattleground states, romney enthusiasm was so strong that they were trying to run up the popular vote, which

gives that ad more, on the national level, more impact. >> can i just say how weird it is, like how many people do you know in america who cast their vote and go home and e-mail a political scientist to ask what to make of their experience at the polls? it just tells you what a freak meacham is. but what's great about that ad, just from a purely democratic standpoint, is just that it says essentially not just your vote counts, which is what it says. but implicitly it says you don't want to go back to bush. it's just the implicit messages, don't let us -- and that rhymes with what the campaign's message is about, romney in general. so there's a very kind of like -- it's working on two levels there. >> and willie, 2000 continues to haunt democrats late into the night in their dreams. if you want to encourage your base to go out, that's the way to do it. >> that's the way. and you don't want to have a situation where you lose the popular vote, you win the popular vote, you lose the electoral. there are all these scenarios that are nightmares. you talk about ohio.

it's not just the "time" or the nbc poll. you're starting to see a consistent pattern, and this is post-debate now. he's got 12 days, mitt romney, in that state. and if you take ohio out of his column and you give it to the president, you are really putting together a patchwork of difficult scenarios for him to win. >> that's why i said, and jon laughed, but it's the case. you know, if the president wins ohio, then that means mitt romney has to win florida. i think he will. north carolina, i think he will. virginia, i think he will. but he's also got to win iowa. that's more of a stretch. he's got to win new hampshire. >> he's got to win wisconsin. >> that's more of a stretch. >> there's a bunch of states in the midwest -- >> let me show you this map. we just assumed after this morning that barack obama is going to win ohio. let's just say, if the election's held today, what it means is that romney then has to take north carolina, virginia, florida, new hampshire, iowa and

colorado. all swing states, all swing states he with kin. >> and he's still not there. >> and yet it's 271-267, romney still loses. he's got to win wisconsin or nevada. let's see how nevada's looking right now, mika. >> all right. we've got, i think, some polling from a nevada public policy. president obama's at 51%, 4-point lead over mitt romney. >> and john, here's the same problem for the republicans in nevada. >> 47%-45%. >> this is a state -- even when i was saying ohio was going to go obama, this is a state that i said romney was probably going to win because the economy is just so bad, and barack obama has said less-than-kind things about las vegas. barack obama is stubbornly clinging to his lead in nevada. and just like ohio, you said there's only one state where

unions matter, i think you'd agree there are two, nevada and ohio. so tie goes to obama. >> the other thing that matter, that state is the state where there are a handful of states where nevada is really where it's true, the fact that barack obama is leading mitt romney in nevada 75%-25% with hispanics, you can't win nevada getting 25% of the hispanic vote. it's just not possible. it's just really not going to happen. and that's where we talked about how important hispanics are throughout the year and that they're really important in five or six states. that's one of them and it's why the obama campaign is so confident about nevada. they just don't believe you couldn't possibly lose that state if you're up 75%-25% with hispanics. >> and mika, if things move the way they look like they're moving right now, then nevada would be the one state where the hispanic vote made the difference. all we've been talking about all year with the hispanic vote, it would give him, what, four electoral votes needed to get over 270. >> there's a fight for the

hispanic vote, obviously, and also for the women's vote. that's getting heated. and last night on "the tonight show with jay leno," president obama was asked about the political firestorm sparked by republican candidate for u.s. senate in indiana, richard mourdock who suggested during a debate on tuesday that if a woman is impregnated during rape, it was god's intention. here's the president on "leno." >> come up with these ideas. let me make a very simple proposition. rape is rape. it is a crime. and so these various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me, don't make any sense to me. the second thing this underscores, though, is this is exactly why you don't want a bunch of politicians, mostly male, making decisions about women's health care decisions. >> it is remarkable what republican candidates have said this year. >> i know.

>> regarding abortion, regarding rape, regarding contraception. i'm a pro-life guy. >> yeah. >> but they are driving away so many swing voters. this mourdock statement in indiana, beyond the pale, dragging god into it. he's not alone. you've got other republicans out there just saying the craziest, most offense -- just say what goes through their mind? do they go, you know what i want to be when i grow up? the next todd akin? they're morons. >> the party has to just take the hit and get rid of these people. just completely separate themselves. and mitt romney's in a very awkward position. >> i commend -- i certainly commend the republican leadership for immediately distancing themselves from todd akin. >> yeah. >> the senatorial committee led by john cornyn, they have stayed away from him. >> i remember that. >> they are under extreme pressure from a lot of powerful people.

and they understand, when guys say things like this, they need to be thrown out. but this is what happens when you get guys like mourdock who a lot of mainstream republicans were worried about. >> yeah. mitt romney is in an ad with him. >> i wonder if lugar would be in trouble right now. >> we've seen in modern political history, we've seen parties that allow their extreme elements to dominate the party. we've seen how well that works. the democratic party in the '70s and '80s, that was the truth, the prevailing wisdom. and if this fringe continues to take up so much space, it's going to hurt the republicans for a long time. >> could i just point out one thing? though you're correct about what john cornyn and the republican senatorial committee did with respect to todd akin, they came out and supported mourdock yesterday, full-throated support and no backing away whatsoever. >> not necessarily.

we have -- i think we're waiting to see what happens. you've got "the huffington post" right there. >> we have a split in the party. the headline, "mccain jumps ship. mourdock must apologize." and indiana's republican candidate for governor, one of the real conservative guys, mike pence, urged mourdock to apologize. according to a campaign spokesman, mitt romney said he doesn't share mourdock's views on abortion, but so far romney's declining to ask the senate nominee to remove a campaign ad from the air featuring romney's endorsement. >> it's not that clear? >> mourdock's senate bid, i think they need to do that today. they need to do that today. they need to be clear. >> what constituency is akin or mourdock speaking to? do they have people out there who believe it's god's will to be raped? >> that's not what he said. the life that is created, no matter how, is life. >> i understand that. >> is how they feel. >> you know what? there are a lot of different ways this guy could have said it.

this isn't todd akin territory where he tries to wrap medicine around a women's body. >> they put god into it. >> i think what the guy was trying to say -- and i'm not apologizing. i think if the guy can't articulate things any better than that, shouldn't do it, what i think the guy was trying to say was we're all god's creatures. >> yeah. >> and it doesn't matter -- you look at the violent rape and you look at the mother and you look at the tragedy, but he still believes, and a lot of people still believe that we're all god's children and that all life is precious. and regardless of the terrible circumstance, he doesn't beli e believe -- he's in a position to say that a life -- >> is not a life. >> -- is not a life. >> he did a terrible job explaining it. >> i know. and again, i'm not trying to put words in his mouth. i've heard people make this argument more eloquently. >> thank you. >> even if i disagree with, you

know, the no exceptions thing. >> right. >> i understand what he was trying to say, but man, to say that god intended it, it's just not good. >> he held a press conference after and clarified his statements and was very upset that there was a connection being made for in some way that this is endorsing rape. and he was very, very, very -- >> was he genuinely upset? >> -- personally genuinely hurt and still believes -- and i know this is an extremely controversial thing to say, but that life is life. and that's -- you know, a lot of people in this country feel that way. >> yeah. >> in fact, more than those watching would expect. >> that's not controversial. there are a lot of people -- and jon, there are a lot of people that philosophically say -- and i've had people come up to me, because i'm pro-life, but i believe in the exception. i actually think washington shouldtay out of it, but that's another story. if you're pro-life and you say i'm pro-life but i believe in these exceptions, life of the

mother, rape, incest, there are some people who say, listen, if you think it's murder and you tell me that it's murder, isn't murder murder? which is, of course, that's the position the catholic church has taken for years. that's why my parents, you know, my dad made sure my mom had babies in baptist hospitals instead of catholic hospitals. >> right. >> you know? >> you know, there was an archbishop in canterbury years ago who said it's a mistake to think that god is mainly or even chiefly interested in religion. i think we can apply this to this. that senate race candidates, house race candidates, should not be interested in these deep philosophical questions. >> they hurt themselves. >> because even if he was articulating a deeply felt element of what john paul ii called the gospel of life. >> yeah. >> in an atmosphere 12 days out from a national election, in this climate, just don't.

this is not a time for st. thomas aquinas. >> if you quoted pope -- >> hop off the debate stage. >> if he did quote john paul ii -- >> i'm telling you, i'm cringing just hearing you guys talk about it. so if you're a 6-year-old man running in a southern or midwest state, i say stay away. i say just don't talk about babies and how they're created. just don't. >> don't talk about babies? >> i was going to say -- i was going to actually say -- >> you have a freakish connection to babies. this great, i think very accurate post about mika's bizarre obsession with other people's babies. >> i like babies. >> you were holding a lot of babies down in florida. >> it's a little weird. >> they show pictures of the babies, all these babies scared. >> stop. they're not scared. they love me. >> the poor 9-year-old girl. so this poor 9-year-old girl --

>> you don't understand. >> let me finish very quickly. she's a sweet girl. annabelle was so sweet. she said that she was for -- >> mitt romney. >> -- mitt romney. and all of these horrible people booed this 9-year-old girl. >> really loudly. you didn't hear it as much watching at home. >> mika's claiming she's trying to protect this girl from these horrible people who booed a 9-year-old. >> i was. >> the picture was like this. her hand was on the 9-year-old girl's face like that. >> because the guy behind was like "no! boo!" >> screaming at the 9-year-old girl. >> and i told him off. that's what you also see in the video. >> her hand -- if you're going to protect a 9-year-old girl, don't do it by suffocating her. >> i liked the baby wearing the tie. he was cute. >> it reminded me of a final episode of "m.a.s.h."

still ahead, richard wolffe, chuck todd, "financial times" gillian tett. jamie redford. this is huge. seriously, wake up the kids for this. >> oh, my god! wow! >> at 7:00 a.m. eastern, rick stengel to reveal "time" magazine's new issue, and he is bringing somebody to help him. academy award winner, director, producer, steven spielberg. we're going to find out how the new issue of "time" relates to spielberg's latest film with abraham lincoln. up next, mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playbook." first, bill karins. what's it look like out there? >> it's all about sandy. it's interesting how this plays out over the next week. how about a billion-dollar weather disaster seven days before the election? that could happen. it is a potential with this storm as it possibly heads up into new england. it crossed cuba last night, still devastating weather from

cuba into the bahamas during the day today. we have rain coming for south florida today. this will be a glancing blow, though, by florida standards and georgia and south carolina. notice it parallels the coastline all the way through sunday. the next chance for significant impacts would be up in new england as we go throughout monday into tuesday. we have the potential for a landfall from this system from maine all the way down to the delmarva. it's kind of undetermined. yet we're still five days away from this. but we have the potential for millions of people without power. we have the potential for extreme flooding on the coast from the storm surge and winds gusting 6 0 to 80 miles per hou. that would be monday, tuesday of next week. so in the back of your minds, prepare for the possibility of your kids not going to school monday through tuesday and then people being without power in new england, maybe all the way up to the election. i mean, this could be that significant of an historical weather event. i'll have more info during "morning joe" and of course as we approach the event. new york city, sunrise coming shortly. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. these fellas used capital one venture miles

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29 past the hour. time now to take a look at the "morning papers." "the new york times," despite the major arrests like that of a bangladeshi student who allegedly tried to blow up the federal reserve in new york, u.s. counterterror programs may see funds start to dry up. the looming federal budget crunch and a sense that major attacks on the united states are unlikely are fueling a growing call to scale back spending. >> not so sure we want to do that. "the wall street journal," ceos of more than 800 companies are calling on congress to reduce the deficit by using a combination of taxes and massive spending cuts. it includes the heads of at&t,

boeing and delta airlines, also dow chemical and goldman sachs. the plan calls for less health care spending, a solution for solvent social security and an overhaul in the tax code by reducing deductions, credits and loopholes. >> "usa today," school districts from new york city to anchorage, alaska, are showing that healthier options in school lunches may help combat childhood obesity. in philadelphia, obesity in k-12 students is down 1% over the span of three years. it is a start. but in mississippi, obesity rates in elementary school students are down 6% from 2007. that is a good start. >> that is good news. >> a good start. >> and if the federal government is paying for these lunches -- >> they should make them good. >> -- they should make them healthy. >> to "politico" and mike allen with a look at the "playbook." >> before we get to breaking news, a friend of the show

shares a birthday today with mr. james carville who's 68. that friend of the show is man about town. >> louis. >> is it sweet lou's birthday? >> lou's birthday. okay. >> for his birthday, i got him a huge mirror. and he has vaseline all over himself. and he's looking at himself right now. >> really? at 6:30 in the morning, you have to conjure that image? >> you're disgusted? >> oh, my god! don't do that. >> mike, don't publish that. >> never mind. >> so mike, are you going to put that in the "playbook"? >> please don't. >> i think maybe we should stick to james carville. >> will you put louis in? will you put pretty boy lou in "the playbook"? >> shiny. >> stick to just his name. i think it's plenty. >> he puts it in his hair. >> no modifiers required. >> yeah. >> vaseline on his body? >> he does not. >> his muscles. >> mike allen didn't do that. are you saying mike allen puts

vaseline -- >> can i ask a quick question? >> yes. >> how old is pretty boy lou? >> i don't know. >> mike? >> does anybody know? >> younger than all of us. >> all right. let's talk a little "politico." your lead story this morning, how mitt romney would govern if elected president. give us some of the bullets. >> this is fascinating. there's more than 100 romney officials who are now working on the transition, what would become his government-in-waiting if he were elected. just a few weeks ago, this had the little bit of air of make-believe. he was behind in every swing state. now as one of the officials put it to me, we're shooting with real bullets, and surprise, they're getting e-mails and calls from republicans around washington who are suddenly eager to be helpful. they tell me that they're steadying the first opening moves of george w. bush, barack obama, trying to avoid some of their mistakes. they're going to come in, they're going to try to avoid overpromising. they know there's only a couple of things that they can do,

especially with all the mine share that will go to the fiscal cliff. they're going to start the day after the election, reaching out to democrats, try and get some friends on the other side of the aisle, start talking about the economy. one of their biggest concerns, how do you keep those house conservatives on board? how do you keep the most conservative wing of the house? that's going to be paul ryan's job. but they recognize that that's a big problem because right away, "a," those conservatives are going to expect a lot of things that the administration can't really deliver. and "b," the administration is going to do a lot of things, including raising revenue, that will be unpopular. >> mike, it's meacham. curious whether you, pre-transition, whether you know much about either side's plans, do they need armies of lawyers ready to move into ohio or florida or any states where things are so close that it's going to be a kind of 2000 redux?

>> they both, through the parties, they both have staffed up with lawyers. they both will have literally planes ready to go to these states. they now believe, they've been saying for a long time, now they really believe it could be close. is it going to be florida 2000 close? no. that's once in a lifetime. but one of these states could tip very easily, as we see in the numbers that you showed at the top of the show. >> jon, the thing about that is that, you know, unlike most scenarios, in the past, you've had both these teams dealing with the voter i.d. issues in a lot of these states. so there are many more lawyers actually already on the ground in a lot of the battleground states because that fight's been going on a year or so. in fact, everyone's on a hair trigger. i think there's a possibility you could have more than one recount scenario if things are close on election night which would be crazy. >> before we let you go, we were talking about this "time" poll that shows the early voting spread is huge in the state of ohio for president obama. he's winning 2-1 in early voting. but you've got something up on the site today that says the

romney campaign not as concerned about that as you might think they'd be. >> willie, they certainly are concerned about it, and that's a yawning gap. i think it's something like 60%-30% gap. i talked yesterday with the romney political director, and he telegraphed they were going to come up behind in all of these early voting polls. he says, and statistics bear this out, that republicans are more likely to vote on election day. this is partly because a lot of them are in rural areas. some of them older people, don't trust putting their ballot in the mail. but the romney campaign is much more focused on election day which the obama campaign will tell you is a little bit of an outdated notion. >> well, if they are focusing on election day, it means that obviously they're going to have to win the undecideds in a big way. you look at the "time" poll, they are tied with obama on election day for election-day voters, 45%-45%. but boy, that is an uphill lift. and again, if barack obama's team -- and they have -- have

been obsessing on getting out the vote for five years, they started in 2007. and team romney, as you said, have basically subed it out to the rnc. >> that's a fact. >> tie goes to obama. >> i'll tell you what, the early voting thing that's so interesting, the republican -- romney campaign is right. republicans are higher propensity of voters than democrats. what the obama campaign has been focused on with all this early voting is not getting out their base -- we're not getting out diehard democratic partisans. they're focusing on sporadic voters, voters who might not show up so they can get them on election day and then focus on voting day. >> young voters and some demographic groups. again, more sporadic voters. >> mike allen with a look at the "politico playbook." mike, thanks so much. >> thank you, mike. >> thank you. >> please, we're sorry about

mika, just scrub that from your brain. >> no, it's just what he did for his birthday. thank you, mike. >> thank y'all. >> it's what he does every day. >> john heilemann going to cover himself in vaseline as we watch the san francisco giants, justin verlander, thanks to a huge night. >> i'm really not going to do that 37. >> kung fu panda. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! oh...there you go. wooohooo....hahaahahaha!

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welcome back to "morning joe." it's 6:40 in the morning here on the east coast. game one of the world series last night, giants and tigers out in san francisco. the tigers had the long layoff. giants with the quick turnaround after the seven-game series. justin verlander, the best pitcher in baseball, on the mound. >> unhittable. >> it did not matter. pablo sandoval, third batter faced by verlander over the center field wall. solo shot. just getting started. now going the other way. this time in the third inning puts the giants up a couple runs. yard off verlander, a two-run shot. giants up 4-0 there. verlander allowed just two runs in his previous three starts this postseason. barry zito, the southpaw was dealing. gets danny worth.

he gave up one run in 5 2/3. last time zito not even on the roster in the world series. fifth inning, not again. not again. >> oh! pandamonium. >> not an easy park to hit the ball out of. >> third at-bat, third home run, dead center field. 6-0, giants. sandoval joins babe ruth, reggie jackson, albert pujols, the only players in history to hit three home runs in a world series game. we should point out reggie did it on three pitches. >> and he's the only zoo animal to have ever done that as a panda. >> do you know that reggie was willie's hero growing up? >> giants win 8-3. verlander, by the way, as joe mentioned, now winless in his three career world series starts. the tigers will hope for a better outcome tonight when they send doug pfister to the mound. >> crazy after the game, they flash on the big jumbotron, tim smoke. it's an interesting park out

there. >> it is. it's a great place. >> seriously, you're wearing that tie, in tribute. >> i like to think of the giants as a team of destiny. i like to think of this tie as a tie of destiny. >> keep thinking. >> president obama was on "leno" last night, talked about a wide range of things including this world series. here's what he said. >> this is one of those presidential decisions. no matter what you say, it's going to upset some people. you're going to vegas. you going to place a bet on the world series? who do you got? >> well, they're both great teams. detroit beat -- [ cheers ] -- they beat my white sox out of a pennant. they're an outstanding team. i will say that, you know, i have spent a lot of time in detroit lately. you know, i didn't want to let detroit go bankrupt. >> right, right. [ cheers and applause ] >> in this particular world series, i may be a little

partial. >> but i want to point out one other thing. before tonight's game two of the world series, major league baseball is honoring world war ii vets who played in the major leagues. incredible collection of people. obviously the famous ones, ted williams, stan musial but also the living members, tommy lasorda. a great tribute to guys who left baseball to go serve in world war ii. that's tonight before the game. in just a few minutes this morning, legendary director and producer steven spielberg will be here with rick stengel to talk about the new film "lincoln." but first, "mika's must-read opinion pages." more "morning joe" in a moment. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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nick christoph. >> by the way, john heilemann and i are coming up with a 269-269 scenario. there are two of those scenarios. barack obama would win ohio, wisconsin, new hampshire, but lose iowa and nevada. nevada's a bit of a stretch. that's 269-269. the other 269-269 scenario, john, is what? >> i've lost it now. you had it going. >> okay. so the other 269-269 scenario is obama wins wisconsin, iowa, colorado and nevada. but romney somehow manages to pick up ohio and new hampshire. and then that's 269-269 if the president picks up the one congressional district in nebraska that he did last time. >> and that puts it in the house. >> and that puts it in the house. those two scenarios are possible. >> yes, that's correct. >> first time since ever? i don't know. >> 1824. andrew jackson. >> you just did your must-read

in politico, the blog that you did this morning. >> john quincy adams. >> i've got to say, the headline this morning, though, really has to be the new ohio poll. five points. it's getting tougher and tougher for romney people to suggest that this state's a toss-up. that's strong. that's a strong advantage with early voting going the president's way and their turnout operation. i don't know how romney gets past that. >> it's hard. you know, if you think about, though, these nightmare scenarios, 269-269 in those scenarios, or the recount scenario, they're just horrible for the country. we'll just be back -- we're so much more polarized than we were back in 2000. both sides are prime to call this an illegitimate election on the left and right. if we wende up with one of those scenarios, if he wins the election but loses the popular vote, it's just going to be terrible. >> at the risk of total

self-parity, since 1948, six winners have taken office with less than 50% of the vote. if you add in the guys who have not gotten to 51%, it goes up to 9. so in more than 50% of the elections since world war ii, the winner has not gotten above 51%. >> all righty. >> this is going to be -- this is the rule, not the exception. >> yeah. >> there are, just so you know in "politico," there's some of these scenarios laid out by joe. "new york times," romney's economic model by nicholas kristof. if you want to see how romney's economic policies would work out, take a look at europe. and weep. in the last few years, germany and britain, in particular, from implemented precisely the policies that romney favors, and they've been richly praised by republicans here as a result. yet these days those economies seem, to use a german technical term, kaput. all industrialized countries experienced similar slowdowns, and the united states, under obama, chose a massive stimulus

while germany and britain chose republican-endorsed austerity. neither approach worked brilliantly. still, america's economy is now the fastest growing among major countries in the west, and britain's is shrinking. which would you prefer? >> well, what, do you think that's game, set, match? >> no, i just read it. i was letting you respond. >> economy is america, economy, we've sort of outperformed europe. so all things being equal, we're going to do that. this is, though -- this does point out, though, the historic choice that western countries have had to make over the past four years. do you go all in, you know, are you keynesian, or is it more do you talk austerity? right now neither seems to be working very well. some really tough choices. >> very tough. >> because our problem is, we've got two things going, jon meacham. we've got an historic amount of debt in the west. and at the same time, we've got

a great need to stimulate the economy. and you don't have -- these leaders, whether you're talking about cameron in great britain or president obama in america. we don't have a lot of choices. >> it's somewhat analogous to an example you use a lot about margaret thatcher and reagan and prop 13 in the '70s where you had a drift toward a larger government role in the economy and both a cultural and political choice to try to bring the market back into the conversation. right now the tension is between really a kind of head in the sand. it will work out. you know. or the austerity agenda. and whether -- and my own view is that neither of these two nominees is representing the austerity agenda very well. >> no, they're not. coming up this morning,

richard wolffe and chuck todd join the conversation. also ahead, what would lincoln do? "time" magazine asks both what president obama and mitt romney can learn from president lincoln's leadership of a polarized america. rick stengel is here to reveal the new issue along with academy award-winning director steven spielberg ahead of his much anticipated new film on the 16th president. more "morning joe" when we come back. ♪ leaving my homeland ♪ playing a lone hand ♪ my life begins today ♪ ♪ fly by night away from here ♪ ♪ change my life again ♪ ♪ fly by night, goodbye my dear ♪ ♪ my ship isn't coming ♪ and i just can't pretend oww! ♪ [ male announcer ] careful, you're no longer invisible

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when we come back, could abraham lincoln have won an election in today's political climate? academy award-winning director steven spielberg and rick stengel take a look at how the 16th president may have handled today's politics. inside the new issue of "time" magazine and spielberg's new film on lincoln straight ahead on "morning joe." good morning, jejtsmen.

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we must cure ourselves of slavery. this amendment is that cure! >> god help us for trapping you in a marriage that's only ever given you grief. >> the fate of human dignity is in our hands. blad's been spi blood's been spilled to afford us this moment now, now, now! >> never trusted the president. never trusted everyone. >> the war will be over in a month. >> tell lincoln to deny the rumors. >> we are guaranteed to lose the whole thing. >> leave the constitution alone. >> you insult god! >> you think they'll keep their promise? >> i am the president of the united states of america.

clothed in immense power! >> okay. that's the movie i'll see. welcome back to "morning joe." that was part of the trailer for the new steven spielberg-directed film "lincoln." and academy award-winning director and producer steven spielberg joins us now and "time" managing director rick stengel is here. it's amazing. >> go ahead. give us -- >> exactly. we're revealing the cover. and i happened to bring along my old pal, steven spielberg. but our cover is "what would lincoln do?" in the midst of this tumultuous presidential campaign where people are feeling like what do these guys represent? what do they stand for? what are they talking about? we wanted to do this collaboration with steven about what would lincoln do? what are the values of leadership that he had 150 years ago that are still relevant today and why aren't we seeing them with the folks who are running? >> steven, what's the answer to that question? rick, thank you. steven, what's the answer to

that question? >> see, i wasn't even on the monitor when i was talking. >> "time" magazine isn't the opinion and context of the film because we don't purposely strike any parallels, and that's up to all of you to figure out what is the mirror we're holding up to today. we were, back in the 19th century, telling the story. so we really kept it relevant to lincoln's time and lincoln's life. >> what does daniel day-lewis -- just is an extraordinary actor as i'm sure you'd agree -- what does his portrayal of lincoln reveal to us about a man who most of us put at the top of every list of great presidents? >> just that, you know, lincoln, you know, as portrayed by daniel dhow lewis, was a deeply compassionate human being who understood the people who were both opposed to him and the people who were supporting him and had just a deep, deep kind of communion with all of the issues. and that his patience, which as you know, he was widely and

broadly criticized for, too slow to any decision, too slow to replace mcclelland with general grant, you know, too slow to issue the emancipation proclamation, waiting for a great victory on the battlefield at antietam. all these things he came under great criticism for. and all of a sudden, he is just headstrong and hurling, you know, down the road of history to get this amendment that abolishes slavery through the house of representatives. in a sense, you know, you see all sides of him. >> you also see the turmoil. >> yeah. >> we forget, or we read the history books, but we overlook the fact that there's turmoil inside his house. >> yes. >> there's turmoil inside his union. the new york riots. this is a president that had to stare down enemies on all sides. >> yeah, sure. >> the other thing that the movie does is that all of these characteristics that lincoln represents, patience, strategic

delay, are things that in our society now, we would castigate a candidate for. you're slow to make decisions. you change your mind all the time. it's unfortunately -- and i think it's relevant for both candidates -- there are as sppe we see in the movie from lincoln that candidates do now because they would be criticized for having lack of leadership. >> for complete synergy, the film is based in part on doris kerns goodwin's book "team of rivals" about lincoln. and doris writes in the latest issue of "time" how abraham lincoln was able to connect with everyday americans. she writes, in part, "the white house then was so much more open than it is today. people wanting government jobs would line up by the hundreds outside lincoln's office, each with a story to tell. a reason his family needed a clerkship or a job in a post office in order to survive. lincoln's secretaries, john nikolay and john hay, told him he didn't have time for these ordinary people. you are wrong, he responded. these are my public opinion

baths. they serve to renew in me a clearer and more vivid image of that great assemblage of which i have sprung. >> i want to talk about the courage that it took for lincoln to take on this fight. it seems now like an obvious thing to say which is to free our fellow human beings from bondage. how hard was that fight? >> it was difficult. about the fight was, he did not run on the abolitionist ticket. he would not have been elected had he run as an abolitionist. he had a moral urge from his very young, you know, years that slavery was an atrocity. but at the very beginning when the war first started, you know, he could not let those border states, you know, secede and go south. and because he couldn't let that happen, he pretty much put on a political theater, political

theater meaning that he said what had to be said to calm the border states down. and before the secession of the southern rebels, he tried very, very hard to prevent them from leaving by pretty much telling them anything they wanted to hear. but in his heart, in the deepest reaches of abraham lincoln, he knew that slavery had to be abolished at the very beginning of his term. >> was it a difficult decision zeroing in on one piece of his life? i mean, it's such a broad life. how do you make a movie about it? >> it's a really hard decision because doris's book is brilliant. you know, i've read many books on lincoln, up to the experience i had reading doris's book. she was sending me chapters as far back as 2003. and what was difficult is there's so many highlights in lincoln's presidency. for a mini-series, it would have been one template. but for a movie audience, i thought to get to know him, you had to see him wrestling with a huge crisis. not just a crisis of secession

and civil war and the fact there were 700,000 killed during that war, but a crisis between abolishing slavery, which could extend the war longer if he did. and that all happened between january and april of 1865, the end of his life. >> what did you learn from lincoln? from the time doris first started sending you the chapters in 2003 to finishing the movie, what was your big takeaway? >> i have so many takeaways. but one of them was, i was kind of astonished to discover what an amazing storyteller lincoln was, what a great sense of humor he had, you know. and some of the stories he told were artful to sort of soften the beaches for an issue he wanted to bring up and he wanted his own cabinet often in opposition to him to go along with him. but he told the grittest stories. he had amazing wit and charm. >> do we see his bouts with depression in here as well? >> you certainly do because daniel brings every aspect of lincoln along this journey, along with him on this journey. but what you really, really, you know, see is what it was like to

be a working president, this working president. and how the greatness in lincoln was touched off by the crisis he had to wrestle with. >> one of the things i loved about the movie is you see this human side of lincoln. when he's with his family, he's almost always down on the ground playing with his kids. and you see this personal side of him. and you get a sense for any leader in that position that there is this whole world behind the curtain that affects everything that they say and do, something we discount with the guys who are in office now. >> lincoln seems, unlike george washington or thomas jefferson or james madison, they all seemed so removed. virginia gentry. sons of elite. lincoln seems like the rest of us. a guy that struggles. a guy that loses more elections than he wins. >> yes. >> a guy who battles with depression. a guy, like you said, that gets down on the ground with his son. and yet along with george

washington, this regular man who struggles with things that so many of us struggle with, one of the great presidents. >> one of the great presidents. not the greatest-looking president in our history. i mean, because the camera wasn't around, it made it a little bit easier to get him elected, you know. >> here's what "time" magazine editor at large, actually a lincoln expert himself, david, writes in the latest issue. "lincoln understood that even in times of extreme polarization, the moderate center is the path to presidential success. was then and is now. even as he felt his way along the tightrope, lincoln always kept his eye and the eyes of the public on the shore beyond. americans have always been a future-oriented people, and our most admired presidents have been the ones who painted tomorrow in great colors, no matter how grim the today. franklin d. roosevelt, john f.

kennedy, ronald reagan all were heirs to abraham lincoln." >> in fact, david, in the story, david has this terrific book called "rise to greatness," which is about lincoln in 1862 which he says is the most pivotal year in american history. and he tells this story that lincoln told to a crowd once about lthis tightrope walker. think about the future and the past and you're crossing niagara falls. would you be calling out, go a little to the left, a little to the right, slower, faster. i, abraham lincoln, have all of this on my back, and everybody's telling me what to do. >> he also, one of the remarkable things even after the war, this war that caused him so much, as it was winding down, he was the man that was telling the north with malice toward none, with charity for all.

he understood that even after this terrible war, he was going to have to bring the country back together. >> exactly. and he sadly, for us, didn't survive his term. so he really couldn't begin, let alone complete, the reconstruction. >> we just saw, rick, obviously three presidential debates and one interesting vice presidential debate. and it seems, you know, the president had a terrible time the first debate. in the third debate, it seemed like mitt romney was sitting there and trying to remember what been put in his head. >> yeah. >> and they both seemed uncomfortable at times. but you go back to lincoln's day. you know, steven douglas and abraham lincoln debates, the guys would stand up. and how long would those debates -- >> three hours, four hours. >> on and on. it is amazing what -- >> lincoln, i think you see a

little bit of this in the movie. it's actually in david's story. because it was an era when you could make gaffes also. the longer he was in office, the shorter his speeches became because he didn't want to give people an opportunity to pick at the things he said. for example, the gettysburg which lasts a minute and a half, the speech before was 2 1/2 hours. the other thing that the movie does, which is so interesting in the context of this election is that you realize lincoln is a practical politician. yes, he's idealistic, but he's ultimately a realist, and it's about getting things done. and the frame of the movie that steven talked about, the passage of the 13th amendment, lincoln was out there, you know, riding down boats, and how do we get the congressman from ohio and india indiana. it's interesting. >> a little lbj in lincoln. doris, one of my favorite lines that doris says about lincoln, she says this while going around promoting the book. yes, lincoln was a great man,

but lincoln was also a good man. we have a lot of great leaders who just aren't good men, but lincoln was an exception there as well. >> lincoln had -- he had a core of decency and he really believed in everything that he, you know, that he put out there. and he just -- you have to understand that he was cut off. he had so many opponents, opposition, outsiders party, opposition within his own party. to get anything done took literally an act of congress. and he had to twist some arms to get that done. >> and if he had had a 24/7 news cycle like we have today, he would have never -- the war would have ended because, again, riots in the north. and he was so patient, but that patience finally did reward. >> that's true. >> when did you decide to do this? how many chapters did it take of doris sending you, you know what? i've got to put this up on the screen. >> i produced a segment of the millennial celebration for the

white house for the clinton white house. and during that time i convened a kind of think tank including steven ambrose and ken burns, and i invited doris goodwin to be part of this think tank, try to figure out, how do we frame the last 100 years. and doris told me she was writing a book about lincoln's presidency. at that moment, i said, "are the film rights available?" literally that day. because i had always really wanted to do something on lincoln but not until i knew doris was the one that was going to put it down on paper that i threw my hat into the ring at that point. >> you know, "saving private ry ryan" sort of defined world war ii for a lot of people who didn't live through it. this movie will define lincoln and the 13th amendment. i have to ask what's knocking around in your head now? what's your next project in terms of history? >> i hope linken never stops knocking around in my head. this is one film that i don't feel like taking the froth coat off and getting back into something else. i am getting back into science fiction. it's not because -- it's not a

reaction to history. it's just that, you know, this has been a deep, you know, passion for me. and now that it's almost ready to come out, my next film is the complete opposite of this in terms of tone and genre. >> jon meacham wanted me to let you know the film rights about his new book about jefferson are available. >> thank you. that's a very compelling story, too. jefferson in paris. >> that was a movie. >> that was a movie. >> so what do you watch when you're at home? do you have any favorite series? do you watch "homeland"? >> i watch "homeland." my wife and i are complete every sunday we're there watching "homeland." >> really? >> the same way we were there every week watching "24" a long time ago. >> yeah. >> you know, i watch a lot of news. i'm kind of a news junkie. >> have you ever heard of these guys before? >> oh, yeah. >> on the west coast. yeah, "homeland," talking about "homeland" -- >> i like "modern family." >> i love "modern family."

>> i like "revolution." >> "band of brothers." talking about "private ryan" which sort of led into "band of brothers." that really was the beginning of television. i won't say displacing movies, but it is ellis andrew stanley wrote this several years ago, i thought it was fascinating, when we were all growing up, you would either go to school or sit around the office. you'd talk about the movies. the great movies. >> right. >> now it's more like hey, did you see what happened last night? can you believe what happened with brody last night? that really all did start with "band of brothers," didn't it, in 2001? >> "band of brothers" was certainly -- i've done a lot of long form, but that was the first time we took the steven ambrose book, did research, and we were able to lay out ten hours and honor the veterans. and so to me, that was interesting. but television, you know, goes way back. i just remember that my dad used to repair television sets when i was a little, little kid for extra money. and so we -- i guess we were one

of the first people on our block in our neighborhood to have a television set. >> oh, really? >> back in the early '50s. i know the same thing happened then that happens now. if there was a really funny sid caesar sketch on shows, that was the conversation by, i guess, the sparklet's cooler. that was the conversation. so television has always had that draw. and of course, television hurt movies, you know, 60 years ago because it was the first time movies had, you know, had arrival. but now there's a very interesting balance between television watching and moviegoing. >> there really is. rick, not that we're interested -- >> well, we should. it's apropos. >> anything else in "time" magazine this week? >> well, we have a great story about ohio. >> oh. >> and the election may all come down to ohio. >> michael duffy? >> michael duffy edited it. it's by alex altman and michael scheerer. we had a poll yesterday which got a lot of attention. it's basically how ohio is sort

of the crucible of america. it represents america. it has all the diversity of america. so all in this one state, it's like a microcosm of all of america. and that -- it's a fascinating story. >> it really is. i traveled around a lot as a young kid. and i remember ed rellits in columbus. i was 18 or 19, and i just looked around, and it really -- it's where america all sort of collides. that state is -- >> even how the eastern part of the state which has been more affected by the auto bailout compared to the western part of the state. so people in that state, you know, have the range of opinions about the race that the whole country does. so that's why it's so pivotal. >> and i was born there. >> were you really? >> yeah. >> what part? >> cincinnati. >> that explains a lot. >> i guess it does. >> how long did you live in cincinnati? >> only till i was 3 or 4. >> 3 or 4. it explains a little less now. >> steven spielberg and rick stengel, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> the new "time" cover is "what would lincoln do?"

it's an incredible issue of "time" magazine. and spielberg's new film "lincoln" is set for limited release november 9th and will expand nationwide on november 16th. look out for that. >> thank you for coming in. great honor. >> it was wonderful. thank you very much. coming up next, richard wolffe is here. also nbc news political director chuck todd live from the campaign trail in ohio. >> cincinnati, in fact. >> exactly. also ahead, hurricane sandy threatens the eastern seaboard. we'll get the latest on that storm just ahead. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call. >> the difference between what was and what could have been. so this year if you're thinking that your vote doesn't count, that it won't matter, well, back then there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. make your voice heard. vote. >> i'm barack obama, and i approved this message. >> all right. welcome back. 24 past the hour. a live look at the white house on a foggy morning in washington, d.c. here with us now in new york, vice president and executive editor of the new msnbc.com and msnbc political analyst, richard wolf wolffe. and in cincinnati, nbc news chief white house correspondent and political director and host of "the daily rundown," chuck todd. gentlemen, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> are you surprised he's talking to spielberg over there? >> he's a smart man. >> we got it. so first of all, chuck, let's look at these latest polls.

likely voters in ohio. shouldn't we go there? and what's your sense of what's happening? >> well, look. i think some of these public -- look, everything is tightened from what i understand from the campaigns, right? which is you don't yet hear bluster from the romney folks that they're winning ohio. they don't say that. and i don't think their numbers are saying that. they believe it's essentially tied. essentially is always -- that's code for we're down a little bit. but it's not much. meaning somewhere probably less than two points. what's interesting is that i'm getting a sense now from the democratic side that acknowledging that this race got a lot tighter. >> interesting. >> in ohio. it felt like for the last week. that ad that you just played in the intro, you know, i mean, you just sit there, that is not the hope card, is it? that is the fear card that you're playing in trying to fire

people up to vote. you know, that to me is what this game is about, right? what chunk of his base shows up and votes? >> right. >> what chunk of hispanics? what chunk of young voters? what chunk of casual voters shows up and does this? and that's going to be the margin. that's going to be the margin of error. >> it's interesting because i think it was you who answered the other way around the same way about mitt romney playing the fear card about obama winning as opposed to what mitt romney has to offer. so both sides have their own version of it. early voting in ohio showing the president beating mitt romney so far, but what are some of the interlayers of that that might cut into that? >> well, i think that, you know, what the romney side will say is hey, you know, we're doing better among the early vote than we did four years ago. they're not doing as well among the early vote as the democrats did four years ago. we'll see. i mean, i think that there's a

little bit of trying to overspin on the republican side here. the fact of the matter is, this early vote advantage for the president is real. it's real in iowa. it's real in ohio. it's real, frankly, in north carolina. the question is, did they move vote and what's nagging at me, did they move vote, or did they get casual voters to come up? when i say, do they move vote, did they move voters they were already going to have on election day and just get the vote in earlier? or have they done a sophisticated job of just targeting casual voters, right? the whole point of the early vote program, when it got started with both parties, was you try to -- you try to pester and identify and target voters that you don't necessarily -- you're not confident that they're going to vote on election day. when the democratic side, it's young voters. on the republican side, it may be -- it's not the older crowd

is going to show up, it is sort of the businessmen, the traveling side. did they actually succeed in doing that? and i think that that's one of the unknowns we're not going to know until election day. >> richard, we've got "time" magazine, nbc, cbs, five points in ohio. if you talk privately to people in the romney campaign, they'll say their internals, as chuck said, have it tied. what's your sense of the race there? >> surprisingly strong for a president with high unemployment, and it's a republican-leaning battleground state. if ohio is off the table or even if it's competitive within the range of a couple of points and you believe that the ground game, the obama folks have is superior, it's always interesting, the republican comparison is well, we're doing so much better than we did four years ago. that's not the bar here. the bar is how are you doing compared to your opponents now? but if you think that obama has a slight ground game advantage and you think the polls give him a little bit of an advantage,

that suggests that ohio is leaning towards him in which case mitt romney has to sweep everything, everything. and it just becomes that much harder in terms of the battleground states for mitt romney to do what he needs to do. at this point, you know, the polls are still going to settle down after the debates. we're seeing, obviously, a close race, one or two, three-point race. very hard to poll in those circumstances. but still, the obama folks are in a slightly better position, and there certainly isn't the freefall or the momentum swing people have been riding for the past two weeks. it's a much more finely balanced race. >> i think richard's right about all those things. so much of the answer here, i mean, really comes down to, you know, the auto bailout. we cite the statistic all the time. the number of jobs outside of michigan, there's no state with more autoworkers or auto parts suppliers. 83 out of 89 counties have directly affected by the auto

bailout. i want to ask chuck about this. you know, a lot of what the obama campaign, it seems like in this last week is trying to do is just continue to make romney pay an incredibly high price for his position on the auto bailout, for having written that op-ed back in 2009, let detroit go bankrupt. >> right. >> how much advertising are you seeing out there right now? you're out in the state. how much are you seeing that's hammering on this point specifically? >> it is -- here's the thing. the auto bailout is not only the central focus of obama's campaign, it's also the central focus of sherrod brown's campaign for u.s. senate. the auto bailout. it is -- you hear it. it's getting amplified in many ways, sherrod brown is like a senate super pac on messaging for the obama campaign out here. you know, there was one ad they're running out here that i didn't realize, they had audio of mitt romney saying -- they used audio of him saying, "let detroit go bankrupt." i'm guessing it's part of -- it

looked like it was part of a local tv interview where he didn't -- he was saying it in a negative, it was a very small slice, but they have the audio in there on the headline. i mean, it's just -- that's what they keep driving -- it's not just the auto bailout. they keep driving home that headline that sits, that sat over his op-ed. and that is the central focus of this advertising. then there was another one that had autoworkers speaking out. i mean, it is -- it's the entire campaign out here. >> yeah. i want to throw something completely different in that we haven't gotten to yet this morning, richard, front page of "the wall street journal." kind of gives you a sense of the climate that's beginning to encircle washington. >> yep. >> and also the president's policies. chief executives from more than 80 big-name u.s. corporations from aetna are banding together to pressure congress to reduce the federal deficit with tax revenue increases as well as spending cuts. and a couple more lines from this, the ceos who signed the

manifesto deemed that tax increases are inevitable. no matter which party succeeds, there is no possible way you can do the arithmetic, a million different ways to avoid raising tacks says the ceo of aetna. you can't tax your way to fix this problem and you can't cut entitlements enough to fix this problem. their point in getting together to do this is to try and create a climate in which compromise is possible, something that we haven't seen in washington. >> well, it would be nice for them to step up and do this publicly, not just now, but at the time those negotiations are under way because there needs to be some countervailing pressure here. if this debate is pulled over by those folks who say you cannot touch any piece of this, whether it's taxes or anything else, it's not going to go anywhere. nice to have some grown-ups in this discussion. i would say where were they before when there was a deal on the table, when we were talking about defaulting on the debt. that's when you want to see the ceos step up. better late than never.

better late than never, but there is a test for voters to assess. which of these two people has the courage to take a tough stand not just on this but on anything else, whether it's foreign policy, domestic policy. the auto bailout's interesting for that reason alone. and we're seeing a little bit now with those rape comments. are you prepared to stand up for principle? >> john heilemann, these companies are saying -- >> i just want to give you a little piece of news. according to my twitter feed, charlie rose has just tweeted that colin powell has just endorsed president obama. >> oh, here we go. >> for a second term on the show, on the morning show over at cbs. it's the one endorsement that i think everyone has been waiting for. colin powell continues to carry an enormous amount of -- chuck, i'll ask you a question in one second. i just want to get the news out. it's a big deal. it's a big endorsement. both sides would have wanted it. he was really important in 2008. now he's done what he did again in 2008, come down on president obama's side. chuck, what do you think the impact of that is, if any?

>> i don't think -- the point is, this would have had more impact had he not endorsed. right? had he said i'm not endorsing this time or going with romney, it is one of those, this is -- you know, then that becomes man bites dog, right? and that would have been -- and that would have been a harder issue. now if you're the romney campaign, well, colin powell, you know, he's got an endorsement of somebody that endorsed him the last time. it's when these -- any of these endorsements that switch. and i would say going to your point, you know, there are very few, i think, endorsements. i thought the perot endorsement was something intriguing and potentially a little bit different, gave romney something. i agree with you on powell. it's a good thing, but it was one of those, i think, senses of relief, if you will, in obamaland. the only other one that sits out there that could have an impact this late is a bloomberg. and it does seem to me -- my guess is he's staying out. >> he doesn't want to give it to

anybody. >> he's been so harsh in his interview with "the new york times" last week, he was so harsh -- he was harsh on both sides. i just can't imagine mayor bloomberg's going to endorse in this race. he's got real problems with both candidates. >> i think you're right, though, chuck. i think it would have been much bigger news had he made a change in his support for obama. back to these corporations, john heilemann, it does show, at least, these companies -- you're right, richard, it's a little late. >> yeah. >> but it's like they're saying to the next president, we will not wring your neck. we will not wring your neck. this has to be done. we care now. just like a lot of, i think, voters who are weighing in maybe for the first time or maybe more than they would because engaging in this election, i think they are worried not just about their bottom line, their wallets, but about the country's stability fiscally. >> and it's been interesting to see, and lot of presidential races, one candidate or the other suddenly at some point

does a big endorsement where they stand on stage with a lot of fortune 500 ceos. president obama did that in 2008. it's a sign of strength for a democrat to do that. it hasn't happened this time. the business community is alienated from president obama, that's a fact. set aside the question of republican super pac spending, obviously there's been a lot of wall street money that's flowed to mitt romney, you haven't seen, in fact, a mass flow of fortune 500 ceos standing up on stage with romney. maybe that's because they fear president obama winning and they don't want to get on the wrong side of that. they haven't rallied to him publicly in the way you might have thought given the way they feel about obama's administration. it's surprising to me, at least. >> i think it's their own politics. i sort of get it. i think they're savvier ceos that realize, wait a minute. appearing too partisan in this environment is a mistake. look at the few ceos that have done it. i think that a few members of the business community they

have, they've come under siege, and i think a lot of these guys look at it and say you know what? let's not invite the polarization of washington and of the country onto their own brand. >> yep. chuck todd, thank you very much. a lot going on right now. we'll see you ahead on "the daily rundown." richard, stay with us if you can. up next, hurricane sandy making its way up the east coast. bill karins will give us the latest on the potential path of the storm. that's next on "morning joe." ♪ keys, keys, keys, keys, keys. ♪ well, he's not very handsome

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singer island, florida. meteorologist bill karins giving you an update on hurricane sandy. florida will get brushed by the storm. the surf's already up. we'll have beach erosion at high tide. as far as the rain and wind, we're not expecting any damage in florida. more or less an inconvenience over the next couple days. it's the northeast we're more concerned about four days from

now. let me show you the storm. it hit cuba last night. jamaica, 75% of the island without power. santiago got hit hard. almost a major hurricane last night. and flash flooding, life-threatening flash flooding in the dominican republic and haiti. some of the rain will be in and out of florida today. again, it's not going to be flooding rains or anything like that, an inconvenience. what we're worried about is what happens after the weekend. the storm is going to parallel the coastline, just brushing north carolina, georgia and south carolina. but then it's expected to hook back towards new england. landfall could either possibly be somewhere up in the maritimes to maine or as far south as areas of southern new jersey. so new england, you are in the brunt of this no matter what, it looks like you'll feel the effects. the question is will it be historic? will it be millions without power, or will it be a day of heavy rain and wind and a large inconvenience. i'm leaning more towards of it being an historical storm. it appears monday/tuesday is the time frame for new england. right now you don't need to take

action yet. you still have time for that. but just in your mind, mentally prepare. you could have the kids at home monday and tuesday with school canceled in new england. we could possibly see people without power for a week, all next week. it could be that significant of a storm. that takes us almost up to the election. this could be the big news story before the election in two weeks. coming up next on "morning joe," something we know very little about, the secrets of workplace productivity. how did that topic come about? stay tuned. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up

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sleep. >> that's good. >> joining us now, bob posen, former vice chairman of fidelity investments and served as secretary of economic affairs to mitt romney when he was governor of massachusetts. he's now a senior lecturer at harvard business school and out with a new book, "extreme productivity: boost your results, reduce your hours," and we're talking about sleep. >> so we're in trouble, man. you say, because i get probably four, five hours a night. you average what? >> i don't know. >> four or five hours a night? >> do you count medicated sleep? >> at least eight hours a week. >> at least eight hours a week. >> i do count medicated sleep. >> how much sleep do you need to get to be productive? >> roughly seven hours a night. >> what happens if you don't? >> if you're at four or five hours, there are a whole series of studies that show that your performance on a series of tests declines. and you're deluded. you don't think that your performance has declined. it's the worst of both worlds. if you're going to be

productive, the way is not to cut down sleep. >> i'm deluded. >> don't let your nerves make you nervous. >> is there any way if you have not enough sleep that you can make that up with crystal meth? >> not crystal meth, but you can make it up by sleeping a little longer on the weekends. >> you did not just say that! >> you caught me on that one. >> all right. >> let me just look in the index. >> you can catch up on the weekends? >> yes. >> i've heard differing points of view about that. >> it takes you a few nights. you can't catch it all up in one night. you've got to gradually get some sleep. >> mika wakes up 3:30, i wake up about 4:00, 4:15. if we -- we really need to sleep hard friday night and saturday night. >> i think the other key is this. i advocate an afternoon nap. >> you do? >> for 20 minutes, 25 minutes. most people's body comes to a low sometimes 2:00, 3:00, 4:00. and if you can take a 20-minute power nap, you'll feel much more productive for the rest of the day. >> that's what i tell my

daughter in high school. >> you don't need more than 20 minutes. it's not like a long nap. and if people think that you're going to go too long, you'll start to sleep, just keep going, just set an alarm. >> you have to because then it feels like two days. >> but the health effect only occurs in the first 20 or 25 minutes. >> exactly. just a quick nap. >> alan greenspan would take power naps in the middle of the day. you could say that's why the economy did well and that's why the economy tanked. that's what he did. >> i was dead serious. you all burst out in hilarious laughter when i asked about medicated sleep. is there a difference? is it not as good? >> medicated sleep is not as good. but if that's the only way you can sleep -- >> it's better than nothing. >> better than nothing. >> what are some other productivity tips? >> listening to the first part of the show, i have a principle called ohio, and it deals with how you cope with all your e-mails. my proposal is twofold. first is you throw away 80% to

90% of them immediately. >> yes, please. >> and have the discipline. and second of all, the ones that are important, you only handle it once. ohio. handle it once. ohio. you immediately respond. if it's important, you don't put it off to the side. you either forget it or a week later you spend an hour trying to find it. >> that's a good point. how unproductive do all of these e-mails and texts make us from doing the bigger things that we need. the bigger projects. >> meetings. i'm glad you have a whole chapter on meetings. the first thing about efficient meetings is how to avoid meetings. >> first is you have to think about why do you actually have a meeting. the only reason you have a meeting is to have a debate or discussion or come up with creative ideas. many have it because it's a regular thing. the other thing i advocate strongly is don't have a meeting

that goes beyond an hour and a half. >> how about 15 minutes? >> to as short as possible. >> you also have e-mail tips. i love all of them. >> most people just send out e-mails to everybody that they can think of. i say only send it to the people you actually need. one of my pet peeves is when you send an e-mail to someone they send an e-mail back. thank you. my view is you see something on your screen. show your gratitude by not sending thank you. >> don't get addicted to e-mail by checking it constantly. think before you hit replay all, mika. don't send a one word thanks e-mail. this addiction and younger americans are the more they are addicted. i just caught richard doing it there. constantly checking their e-mails or their facebook feed or their twitter feed or they're texting. it's constant. >> most people should try to check their e-mail once every hour.

that's a reasonable time to do it. then they won't constantly be looking at it. here's the interesting thing. if you look at meetings in which young people are involved, everybody is e-mailing. if you go to a board of director meeting of people my age, many are offended if they are checking e-mail. you have to discuss with the group what the appropriate e-mail culture. i'm on one board of directors which takes an e-mail break every hour and a half. so you're not allowed to e-mail during the board meeting. >> that's a long meeting. you could put your iphones out front like that. turn them in. >> seems like the big take aways are declare e-mail bankruptcy. >> there's one big takeaway. start at the end. what i mean by that is most people including my students at harvard business school, when they get into a big project, they spend weeks if not months

researching and then only at the end do they figure out what they want to say. my view is after a day or two come up and write down your tentative conclusions. that will force you to think about what are the critical issues which are always 80% of them are right there. second of all, it will guide your research instead of going all over the place. and third of all, it will make you into a much more focused and productive person. >> i like it. the book is "extreme productivity." thank you so much. great book. great advice. bringing it home. still ahead, the winner of the nobel prize in economics joins us on the set. all straight ahead on "morning joe." i'm so g

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all right. coming up, it's all about ohio as new battleground polls shows a tight race between the candidates. we'll show you why it's buckeye state or bust for the romney campaign. more "morning joe" in just a moment. [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self?

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>> after the excitement of '08, given the power of incumbency, you got bin laden, you did not expect to be sitting on a more substantial race than we are as we sit here today. >> no, brian. listen, you guys have short memories. folks in your business were writing me off a year ago saying there's no way i would win. so these things go in ebbs and flows. the one thing i tried to always be is just steady in terms of

believing in what i'm fighting for. one of the things i bring to bear in this campaign is people say what did i say i was going to do in 2008 and what have i delivered and they can have confidence that things i say, i mean. >> good morning. it's 8:00 on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. time to wake up everyone as you take a live look at new york city. >> you know it's louis' birthday today. happy birthday. >> do you think he's still at the mirror? >> mirror on the wall. >> stop it. seriously. for someone who was disgusted by what i said, he's obsessed. >> with us today, john heilemann who is going to talk about being baked and winning the world series games -- >> favorite pastimes. >> i rather not discuss either.

>> as well as tv's own willie geist. willie, when presidential campaigns are coming down to the final stretch, we all know who they go to. how do you set the shot up. >> exactly. >> what's the angle, what's the image? who do you go to? you go to tv's own willie geist. let me ask you, willie what were you thinking yesterday when you decided i'm going to put the president of the united states down in some corn and with bales of hay around to make brian williams look like he's one of the country bears in "country bear jamboree." >> brian called me yesterday afternoon. what do you go with? i said get yourself some bales of hay. >> it's like nixon walking along the pacific coastline in wing tips. >> or are you doing a three hour show wearing a fleece with food

on it. >> you know what? it's a sustainable fleece because -- >> you can eat off the top of the belly since you have a belly you don't have to reach that far. >> harsh. >> really early in the morning she's right in there. >> you went after brian. i went right back for him. >> is this the revenge of -- >> i think you did a fairly good job with it. >> i apologized on twitter last night. >> i think it's great when conversations get heated. >> i do too. compelling tv. >> were you stoned? >> i was but i was watching. >> the thing about david is i like david a lot. great respect for him. read his magazine all the time. i felt more comfortable doing that than someone i didn't know as well. so meacham -- >> it was -- >> brian williams in the hay.

barack obama in the hay. >> if you look careful you can find glen campbell and roy clark. >> at some point can we listen to what was said in the interview because it was fascinating. it was really good. >> no. we're all about style, not substance. >> brian's team is amazing. >> we can talk about two stoners and kung fu panda knocking out the best player in baseball. >> you know, the kung fu panda, three home runs in one game. fourth player in history to do that with reggie jackson, babe ruth and albert pujols. everything is a human panda. 95-mile-an-hour justin verlander heat up at the shoulders and he took that thing 411 feet to dead center field. that was basically the end of the game. he does it again a couple innings later. >> this is historic.

verlander speaking of three, he's lost his three world series games. he just doesn't come to play. >> let us just recall mr. michael barnicle that great baseball oracle telling us that justin verlander would be unhittable and unbeatable and no question about it. >> impressive stuff. >> verlander said after the game he knew when he was warming up he didn't have it. he said it after the game. he wasn't locating his bitcpitc. >> there's the panda again. >> you think of the three home-run game in the world series. sandavol did it last night. >> barry zito not on the postseason roster. came in and saved the national league championship series for them. >> he runs like a horse. >> throws 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball and then is relieved by tim lincecum. two consecutive cy young award winners pitching in the game and

two of the most baked pitchers in major leagues. shut the tigers down. >> it's not quite doc ellis. >> they were vaporizing late last night. >> we flittered away five minutes of the show. we have so many polls that come at us these days that, you know, once in a while one comes along that is significant and with 12 days out, "time" magazine released a new poll in ohio. i don't think this is one of those that the romney campaign can just flick away. they love flicking away these polls. they're skewed. no. i think this is pretty significant. this is the second poll that shows mitt romney behind outside of the margin of error in ohio. >> the poll shows the president leading by a slim five-point margin among likely voters. a big part of the advantage comes to do with early voting. among those that cast the

ballot, president obama leads mitt romney by a two-one margin according to this poll. among those who have yet to vote, "time" magazine has it dead even, 45-45. also the recent cbs poll out earlier this week showed the president with a five-point lead in ohio. 50-45. >> let's put up "time" magazine full screen. 49-44. if you're a month out and it's 49-44, i would call that a close race. if you are 12 days out and you're behind five points in consecutive polls, i would say, you know what? it's kind of an uphill lift. if you were mitt romney running against barack obama's get out the vote machine, i would say five points looks more like a mountain than a molehill. we're getting to the point now that if these polls don't start

closing to two or three points, tie goes to obama in every single state outside of the deep south because of his turnout operation. no one is even suggestioni isug romney camp they have a turnout organization. >> it's all handled by the rnc. it's driven by how good a state party's operation is and national party within that state. there are some states where it's very good. there are some states where it's very poor. ohio, there's no question the obama campaign has a much better turnout operation. >> they have been on the ground for five years. >> and they have been on the ground in force for a year and a half. they spent a lot of money. you also have the situation as i said on the show a million times, there's only one state in the entire country where organized labor is actually organized. it's ohio. you have the turnout operation of the labor unions plus the obama turnout operation in ohio and five points is a big gap

when it's settled at five. it was up at eight. it settled at five. it's not getting tighter right now. >> it's been at five for a week. the question you always ask is okay sitting at five now, what happens over the next 12 days that changes the dynamics. there's not a debate. you have 30-second ads and you have these guys running around campaigning. if it really is five points like the two points have shown this week, that is a very, very heavy lift for mitt romney and that means that if these polls are accurate, he better win his southern swing states. he better win iowa. he better win colorado. new hampshire. figure out how to pick up a couple more points. >> you were talking about turnout. the obama campaign is out with a new ad that is airing in eight swing states with an urgent plea to get out the vote. take a look. >> 537. the number of votes that changed the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call.

>> the difference between what was and what could have been. so this year if you are thinking that your vote doesn't count, that it won't matter, well, back then there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. make your voice heard. vote. >> i'm barack obama and i approve this message. >> wow. we got a public policy poll from nevada. first john meacham, you were responding to the ad. what do you think? >> very effective, i think. as dr. kissinger said, a virtue of being true. i voted yesterday. >> did you really? >> in tennessee. it was -- it's not a wildly democratic precinct. it was full at 3:00 in the afternoon. i e-mailed john gear, vanderbilt

political scientist about what to make of that, he wrote back -- >> the buffet was going on about 3:00. did he say that's why? >> it was captain ds had a special. he thought one thing that was happening is in nonbattleground states romney enthusiasm was so strong they were trying to run up the popular vote which gives that ad more -- on the national level more impact. >> can i say how weird it is. how many people do you know who vote and then e-mail a political scientist? that ad says essentially that not just your vote counts but it says you don't want to go back to bush. it's the implicit message. it rhymes with the campaign's message about romney in general. it's working on two levels

there. >> willie, 2000 continues to haunt democrats late into the night. >> yes. >> if you want to encourage your base to go out, that's the way to do it. >> you don't want a situation where you lose the popular vote. win the popular vote and lose the electoral. it's not just the "time" poll or cbs poll but nbc poll had it five points. you're starting to see a pattern and this is post-debate now so he's got 12 days, mitt romney, in that state. if you take ohio out of his column and you give it to the president, you are really putting together a patchwork of very difficult scenarios. >> that's why i said and john laughed, it's the case. if the president wins ohio, that means mitt romney has to win florida. i think he will. north carolina. i think he will. virginia. i think he will. but he's also got to win iowa. that's more of a stretch. he has to win new hampshire. >> he has to win wisconsin. he has to win a bunch of states

in the midwest. >> let me show you this map. we just assumed after this morning that barack obama is going to win ohio. if the election is held today, what it means is that romney then has to take north carolina, virginia, florida, new hampshire, iowa, and colorado. all swing states, all swing states he can win. and yet it's 271 to 267. romney still loses. that means he has to win wisconsin or nevada. let's see how nevada is looking right now. >> we've got some polling from nevada public policy. president obama at 51%. four-point lead over mitt romney. >> john, here's the same problem for the republicans in nevada. this is a state even though i'm saying ohio is going to go obama, this is a state that i

said romney was probably going to win because the economy is just so bad and barack obama has said less than kind things about las vegas. barack obama is stubbornly clinging to his lead in nevada and just like ohio you say there's only one state where unions matter. you would agree there are two. ohio and nevada. tie goes to obama in this state as well. >> that state is the state where there are a handful of states where it is true. nevada is where it's true. the fact that barack obama is leading in nevada 75-25 with hispan hispanics, you can't win nevada with only 25% of the hispanic vote. it's not going happen. we talked about how important hispanics are throughout the year. it's why the obama campaign is so confident about nevada. they don't believe you can lose that state if you are up 75-25 with hispanics.

>> coming up, our next guest has just won the nobel prize in economics. harvard professor alvin roth is with us next and a new hbo documentary looks at a common disorder and why it is found in some of the most successful and intelligent minds. that's disorder. not dysfunction. don't worry. and films director jamie redford joins us in just a few minutes. here's bill karins with the latest on hurricane sandy. >> good morning, everyone. of course we're about four or five days away now from a possible historic storm moving into the northeast. it will be a piece of sandy that evolves into a nor'easter type storm. right now the storm is coming off cuba. it will parallel the areas of the southeast coast over the next couple days bringing periods of rain and large waves and breezy, gusty conditions from beaches of florida all of the way through the southeast. i do not expect damage to be done in areas of the southeast.

now the storm is going to parallel the coast until sunday and then it's going to take a turn more to the north and it looks like towards the end of the forecast period, monday or tuesday, a turn toward the chesapeake or northern new england or somewhere in the middle. everyone from maine through boston down through new york city, connecticut, new jersey, and areas around the chesapeake including virginia and maryland need to be prepared in case the storm comes your way with damaging winds, heavy rain, the possibility of a lot of problems at the beaches. this is all going to be combined with cold air in the middle of the country. there are scenarios that put heavy snow in areas of pennsylvania, ohio, or west virginia on the backside of this storm next week. a lot coming into play in a storm that we didn't take serious. this could possibly be a billion dollar weather disaster if sandy hits new england. that's what we're facing about four or five days from now. as of today, just some breezy conditions down there in florida with a lot of pretty waves to

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rerun of the first. we need someone to turn it around fast. that man is mitt romney. there's not much time left and the future of our country is at stake. >> i'm mitt romney and i approve this message. >> 22 past the hour. >> funny ad. >> it was. >> i just found out, we have a guest on set and i'm not going to say who it is. she's wearing a red dress. she was expelled the last day of school in journalism school according to richard wolffe. >> richard and i were in journalists school together. >> until you were expelled. >> i was anti-establishment then. i've grown up. i have grown up. >> we asked them what journalism school was and all you hear is south coast of england. >> does the institution have a name? >> it's been closed down by public health inspectors. >> richard was a class star.

>> joining us now from stanford university, one of the winners of this year's nobel prize in economics, professor alvin roth. also joining the conversation here in new york, assistant editor and columnist for financial times, gillian tett. getting a sense of where the u.s. economy stands from your perspective but also through the lens of this presidential race. >> you know, there are lots of different kinds of economists. i'm the wrong one to ask that question. i listen to find out what's going on in the presidential race. >> we'll tell you what the latest is. i want to talk to you all about the front page of "the wall street journal" bring the professor in ultimately on this. "financial times" at this as well. 80 ceos are urging congress to address the deficit looking at

the numbers and they are calling on congress to reform medicare and medicaid, to strengthen social security, to include comprehensive and pro-growth tax reforms and to look at the simpson-bowles recommendations and everyone who we brought this to and showed this to have said finally, finally. is it an endorsement of president obama to an extent or of both candidates or neither? >> the issue is -- we did have the story a few days ago. i wrote a column about it over a week ago. basically the ceos have been missing in action for most of the last two years in a sense that many of them when you talk to them are incredibly concerned about what's going on and grumbling about it in private. they haven't been getti inting pro-actively involved. what they have now is a two-prong strategy. they'll try to get a down payment in the lame duck session

in a sense they want to see bipartisan committees produce some kind of rough outline of a fiscal deal and then after that they want to get really serious about getting a proper plan on the table. >> professor roth, every year someone wins the nobel prize in economics and every year i can't understand what the hell they're talking about because a lot of things that people do is mathematical. explain to us in layman's terms what the thing is that you've been awarded for. >> they give us an award for the practice of market design and my colleagues and i try to help build things and make them work better. so we've helped design school choice and kidney exchange and labor market clearing houses in which doctors get their first jobs. our work isn't so hard to understand and it's pretty practical. >> it does seem pretty practical. you talk about how people and companies actually find each

other and not only in business but also you talk about in marriage as you said before, in organ donation as well. i'm wondering if this is a self-selection that you study, how people naturally wander in and make these choices. more like an approach that it's not systems from above that do this but just sort of the natural order of how people wander into these selections. >> i guess the thing about matching markets is you can't just make the selection yourself. you can't just choose what you want. you also have to be chosen. that's why it's like marriage. you can't just choose your spouse. but you can't just choose what college you go to or job you have either and they can't choose what students come to a college or who works for them. these are two sided matching markets where there's a lot of courtship involved and often they have institutions of applications and interviews and selection and those are the things my colleagues and i

study. >> let's go speaking of selections, let's go to the "financial times" who made a selection with a college who decided to divorce her the last day. do you have a question for the professor? >> my question really is this. one of the things that's fascinating about your work is the fact that you are saying markets aren't perfect. you can't treat human beings as rationale atoms that operate to a perfect market but you can see principles which you can use. to what degree do you think the economic profession is due for a bigger rethink of how they make sense of the economy around us because we just had this terrible financial crisis that many people blame on economists being just too purist about how they thought the markets worked. >> i think market design gives us a new look at how markets work when you think of a free market you should think a little

bit of something like of a wheel that rotates freely and doesn't do it by itself. it needs an axle and well oiled bearings and markets need institutions to let them work freely. sometimes intervention is needed. people throughout history have tinkered with markets to make them work better and we understand a little better how to help with that. >> professor alvin roth, congratulations. thank you very much. that's incredible. >> i wonder what he's going to do with all that money. you get a bunch of money. $1.2 million. >> that's not any money. >> not nothing. >> that's fascinating. let's talk also about on the u.s. economy. the looming issue richard wolffe is the fiscal cliff that looming issue that we're not really talking about that much in the presidential campaign but it's something that's going to hit whoever wins right after. >> right. i think it's great that the ceos

are stepping up. i would love to see them apply pressure to locus of power inside the business community in washington which is u.s. chamber of commerce. there is a way to do these things in washington and actually dealing with lobbies that force the hands of lawmakers. that would be a good thing. you know, honestly, i think we have to be realistic about the politics of this. it's not that it's not going to happen. it has to happen. the question is when. does it happen before the end of the year, after the end of the year, do they blame it on the old congress or is it something the new congress and new president wants to take on? it's going to happen. the question is where's the balance here and who is going to take the glory. >> in many ways that's why it's important that ceos and others are now saying what we really should look for are two-part strategy. don't do the whole thing in one go. try to get a down payment. get enough of a deal on the table to keep the markets calm until january 1st and get

serious about trying to get a grand plan. in many ways that's more realistic. >> that means the debt ceiling has to be done first because markets will be most concerned about debt ceiling. >> absolutely. if investors start to see serious dialogue take place and see the ceos getting actually involved in pushing for change, that's something that would reassure investors not just in america but right around the world. >> talk about the politics of this. after the election, let's say the president is re-elected and congress stays the same. how do things move forward? >> there's a reasonable chance that -- the bush tax cuts are going to expire if you think about various moving pieces here. they're going to expire and tax cuts for earnings up to $250,000 are going to get reinstated. it means republicans don't have to vote for a tax increase but more new revenue because they'll

vote for other tax cuts. the debt ceiling is a dicey thing. you know, the interesting thing is if you think about what the problem was with the debt ceiling politically, the house republicans, the tea party freshmen who resisted on principle and they were in the summer of 2011 six months away from having won an historic victory. we're now going to head into the spring of 2013 where the re-election efforts are much closer and victory is further in their rearview mirror. republicans in the senate want to legislate the pressure from ceos is going to be intense. if the president is re-elected he'll look to try to do a big deal on this stuff for his legacy as much as anything else. you know, i think there's a reasonable prospect of getting through this and ending up in the right place. the grand bargain was not that far off in the summer of 2011. i think president obama will go back to that and politics around

the republican party make it more likely to happen than it did back then when memories were still fresh about having won this historic victory in 2010. >> jewgillian tett, thank you s much. a look at a new hbo documentary about a disorder found in highly intelligent and creative minds. we'll be right back. with the spark miles card from capital one, thor's couture gets the most rewards of any small business credit card. your boa! [ garth ] thor's small business earns double miles on every purchase, every day! ahh, the new fabrics, put it on my spark card. [ garth ] why settle for less? the spiked heels are working. wait! [ garth ] great businesses deserve the most rewards! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with double miles

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>> unforeseeable conflict with having dyslexia in high school was lockers. combination between memorizing numbers and then memorizing directional movement was just all bad. so i remember coming freshman year and being so freaked out that i couldn't open these lockers that i would have to get my friends to open it and put myself inside there and not be able to get myself out and have to get a teacher to unlock it for me. next four years i crammed everything into my backpack but it kept me from embarrassing myself with the locker station. still don't know how to use them. no idea. >> that was a clip of dylan

redford in the hbo film, "the big picture." dylan's father is director of the film. and one of the film's success stories, high profile attorney david boies. david has dyslexia and has to endure the questions about the popular vote in 2012. are we going to have a replay of recount? >> i hope not. that was not that close. >> for the whole country it would be ugly, wouldn't it? >> it would be. >> let's talk about the film. obviously i don't have to ask you what your inspiration was. it was your son. >> couldn't be more personal. i was asked to do a film by the producer to support the center for dyslexia and creativity. it sort of unfolded over time.

it was a surprise to us that such a personal effort ended up becoming an hour long feature and going to reach a lot of people on hbo. it's exciting. >> i'll ask this question of david because he's the star of this movie. richard and i read about the microsoft antitrust trial. one of the most extraordinary things about david is he gave these extraordinary oral arguments in that case and then knowing that you had dyslexia and you couldn't read until third grade. talk about the way in which you have dealt with dyslexia in a profession that requires oral presentation at the very, very highest level. >> one of the things about dyslexia is it teaches you and sometimes enables you to do things orally easier than other people. for example, when i started debate when i was in high school, i couldn't read notes because if i started a speech and i looked down for notes, i would get lost and lose the audience. i had to learn to speak around a

series of particular points. that served me extremely well when you get into law which is as you say you're arguing all the time. dyslexia is not a processing issue. it's an input issue. once you get the input in, dyslexia doesn't impair your processing. sometimes it gives you even some advantages in it. so as you get older and you're burning off most of the things you've learned and you use that base that you already acquired, dyslexia can become an advantage. >> fascinating. >> the governor of connecticut has dyslexia. he said growing up reading his story here, his teacher said he was mentally retarded. the governor of connecticut talks about how even studying for the bar exam, he had to memorize everything. he couldn't write it down. he was the first person they let do that. like you, he said it was an

advantage. i had to memorize everything. it made me stronger in a lot of other ways. >> that's right. i think it's a general statement. the challenges -- we come up against challenges. we overcome them. we develop strength of character. i think the particular challenge for dyslexics are those early years when the original thinking starts to kick in as the valued element of expressing your knowledge. until then it's mechanics. if you don't read or write quickly or well naturally, then you can be artificially branded not intelligent or crazy or whatever. it can be very damaging to a child. >> making a movie about a member of your family, i can understand the passion and motive for wanted to do that but actually doing it must be very hard, right? >> yeah. >> you have the ultimate editor sitting on your shoulder or

across the dinner table. >> it was double barreled. my wife was in there too. she has been teaching for 26 years and had many dyslexics come through her classroom. interesting perspective. somehow we're very close. >> you survived. so is that really the important message of this film not for adults so much as it is for parents with children who might have dyslexia for children themselves? >> the real message is you have to stick with it. you can't get discouraged in those early years. jamie is exactly right. the real tragedy of dyslexia is that it is at its worst when kids are at their most vulnerable. it's when they are just starting out and they don't have a sense of themselves or confidence and then they get hit with this inability to do what everybody around them equates with intelligence. that's the wrong equation. they are too young to know that. parents can get discouraged.

i think if there's one single message that both children with dyslexia and their parents ought to take away from this film is to be patient because it gets better. it gets a lot better. there is really tough times you go through in early years. >> david, thank you so much. jamie, thank you as well. we're glad when it came to your wife and your son you passed the audition. >> yeah. >> all right. the big picture premieres on hbo monday, october 29th at 7:00 p.m. make sure you watch it. when we come back, business before the bell with brian sullivan. we'll be back with "morning joe."

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>> last year, michelle gave out fruit. did the white house get egged? at all? >> no, no. it is true. michelle takes this healthy eating seriously. it is an election year. candy for everybody. especially -- and if anybody comes from ohio to the white house, they'll get a hershey bar about this big. it will be huge. >> what's this thing with trump and you? it's like me and letterman. what does he have against you? >> this all dates back to when we were growing up together in kenya. >> i got to give you that one. >> we had constant run-ins on

the cosoccer field. wasn't very good. when we moved to america, i thought it would be over. >> my god. >> that is good stuff right there. that was a clinic politicians. write that down. saw an ap poll, the race is tied 47-47 according to ap. romney erases obama advantage among women. we've been talking swing state polls earlier. ohio and nevada seem to be going the president's way. he's holding firm. a lot of these national polls are showing a really tight popular vote race. >> as tight as it can be. we saw the new tracking poll that has it tied. you have a couple other polls around that he's pulling ahead

in the national popular vote. you got to figure out how to account for all of the regional variations of what's going on nationally. at this point we're ten days out. the nine battleground states are what matter. in those places romney is ahead in florida. a little bit more ahead in north carolina. maybe a tiny bit ahead in virginia. but then if you move into the midwestern ones, president obama seems to be polling firm and doing well out in the northwest. >> this race couldn't be tighter. let's go to cnbc's brian sullivan. new jobless claims are out this morning. better or less than expected? >> a little bit better, joe. continues to show the job market improves. slightly better than consensus. key is longer term trend which continues to fall. that's a good thing. we're not in a super recovery with jobs. as we have noted, that four-week moving average continues to move down so slowly but surely we are

getting better on the job front. durable goods orders came in flat. ceos saying we're concerned about the fiscal cliff so have to watch spending terms longer term. >> bank of america sued by the justice department. $1 billion suit? >> $1 billion suit which to be honest with you when you look at some of the size of the losses is not that much of a number. here's the thing. basically the u.s. justice department calling it a "brazen fraud" and countrywide financial, which was bought by bank of america, bank of america wishes they never did that deal i guarantee it, started something called the hustle. it's not the dance from the '70s popular for a week. this was a program to push through loans without adequate controls. basically keep them moving forward. not backward. that was almost their internal motto there at countrywide. a lot of ways to do this. not checking things. not doing this. not doing that. whatever the details are, bottom

line is this. the united states basically five years after everything blew up suing bank of america for a billion dollars. fannie and freddie have so far had about 142 billion in bailouts. another 50 more coming. that's a billion. we're looking at 200 billion in total bailouts coming at the minimum. >> wow. it continues. brian sullivan, thank you so much. we have much more "morning joe" straight ahead. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a low-priced medicare prescription drug plan. ♪ with a low national plan premium... ♪ ...and copays as low as one dollar... ♪ ...saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. ♪ so you're free to focus on the things that really matter. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. or go to walmart.com for details.

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let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. what did we learn today? >> i learned that mike barnicle is wrong about what happens in the world series. he called it. he said tigers in five. >> that dude doesn't know

anything about baseball. >> has anyone ever been more wrong than mike? >> not in modern history. you have to go back to meacham territory. >> that prediction on poll collection. my god. >> there's a day when being on the show is a pleasure. what a great set of guests. >> great time. of course i was thrilled to have a fellow liverpool fan. >> i learned that he would entertain job seekers in his personal office and to be in touch with public opinion. could the man be any greater? >> i learned that medicated sleep is better than nothing. >> medicated sleep is better than nothing. we also learned today you get the e-mails, read them once, get rid of them and erase 80% of the e-mails that you get before even reading them. i'm there. >> shut it down. >> e-mail bankruptcy.