>> like s.e., i also have questions like, who is running, and be specific? >> i'm steve kornacki. krystal may be a virginia native, but this is my state today. i cycled down to this key state. well, i took the train. >> steve is spewing lies on the campaign trail. we're bringing you the truth on "the cycle" on this election day, tuesday, november 6th, 2012. ♪ well, i think i speak for everyone when i say finally it all comes down to this, election day 2012. americans across the country are

at the polls this hour casting their vote for president. can you feel the excitement? i'm excited. turnout is expected to be strong. a record 30 million americans have already cast their vote in early votes. as a rule of thumb, we don't use polls on voting day, so we don't skew the electorate. we know this race is going to be close. all eyes are on the battlegrounds. we get the first results in four hours when polls close in virginia. 30 minutes later ohio closes followed by florida, new hampshire and pennsylvania at 8:00 eastern. colorado and wisconsin at 9:00, nevada and iowa where this all started close at 10:00. i already hit the polls this morning with krystal. i wonder if we canceled each other out? >> we look so happy. >> toure took his son with him before work. steve, we shipped him out to battleground virginia so he can cast an aabsentee ballot yesterday before he left. as for the candidates, obama is the first president ever to do early voting. mitt romney was at the polls this morning in massachusetts in an 11th hour decision he added

two stops today. they're not official rallies but are billed as him thanking supporters. read into what you'd like. he's heading to pittsburgh right now and was in ohio earlier at the same time joe biden was there. you can see air force 2 sneak in behind the parked romney jet before romney met with reporters. peter alexander is live at romney headquarters if boston. peter, what's the vibe there? >> reporter: s.e., we can show you live pictures of what's happening right now. mitt romney is touching down in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. you noted the earlier stop in ohio. it was the romney campaign plan for him to go to ohio. governor romney said as long as they're out there, why don't we find another place to stop as well? that's where they came up with pennsylvania. this is significant because one of those states, ohio with 18 electoral votes, is a place he showered with attention. pennsylvania is one that he has largely ignored. here campaign advisers continue

to be exceedingly confident he'll do well tonight. i spoke to a source close to the campaign a few minutes ago who said vadz is the lynchpin this evening. it's one of the first states to report back at 7:00 whenle polls close, and they say that's a place to give them a better sense of which direction this night will go. it's a state that the republicans know that they need to win tonight. beyond that advisers say that governor romney in his own words is, quote, excited he's running on adrenaline. paul ryan was running on fumes. the two of them tonight will run apparently on fast food as they made a stop together in ohio a while ago. s.e., apparently the governor picking up a burger with no cheese, a frosty or chili. for a guy who eats exclusively organic, we'll see how that goes. >> what kind of frosty. in intel there? >> reporter: none so far. >> peter, have fun tonight. we're watching right now live footage of mitt romney leaving his plane. we'll keep on that. as for the president, he's camped out in chicago today

playing some basketball as he does to clear his mind. he's off the trail today, but he's doing satellite interviews. the president got a little emotional last night in iowa speaking to 20,000 speupportersn his final rally ever as a candidate. >> i'm still fired up, and i've got work to do. that shows you what one voice can do. >> nbc's kristen welker is at obama headquarters in chicago. kristen, what's the mood like there? >> reporter: good afternoon, s.e. there's a lot of excitement and anticipation mixed with some nostalgia. this is, of course, the president's last campaign, win or lose, so his add avisors tell me that they have all been reflecting and reminiscing as you pointed out. he's just starting his traditional election day basketball game with some of his dearest friends and top advisers. i'll tell you who is playing with him, s.e.

arne duncan and mark nesbitt. they're focus odd this event tonight. president obama started off the day stopping by his campaign headquarters here in chicago. he thanked folks for all of their work and underscored the importance of voter turnout. they feel confident about their get out the vote strategy. it's something they've worked on for the past 18 months, and really for the past four years since the last election. so they're feeling confident about that. president obama also granting interviews to stations really in those key battleground states targeting voters there specifically in must win ohio. ohio's really the corner stone of the president's midwest firewall. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio, it is very difficult for him to win this race tonight. so the obama team really going after ohio with a lot of vigor.

joe biden making a up ststop in today. he stopped by the restaurant. the folks there chanted biden. a lot of anticipation into the evening. back to you. >> thank you. since the political world today is centered in boston and chicago, we figured we'd talk to two people who actually live there and cover this stuff. mat covers politics for "the boston globe" and mary mitchell is a chicago sun times columnist. let me start with you. chicago exploded in 2008 on election night. what do you expect to see tonight, if the president wins election again? >> well, i don't think we'll see the kind of explosion as in 2008, because as the song goes, it's never as good as the first time. history was being made in 2008. now i think a lot of people are looking to support what they felt as a candidate and a president who has done what he said he would do. you have a more -- first of all,

it's a much scaled back. it won't be grant park. it's a mccormick place here. then it's on the inside instead of outside. people are going to have to have tickets. it's scaled down, but i think that that's to be expected given that it's not a historic election. >> this is krystal here. we have important updates yesterday in the chris yisy and barack obama situation. they asked christie to do a rally and he refused because he's busy right now. what is your sense of the truth of that story and if there's actual ill will between the romney camp and chris christie for his praise of the president in the past week? >> yeah. i mean, the dynamics between chris christie and mitt romney are fascinating over the last couple of days. you saw yesterday, you know, obama orchestrating a phone call between bruce springsteen and chris christie.

christie's sort of musical idol. i do think there's a little bit of strain between the relationship between romney and christie. the interesting point here is the shared advisers they have. russ shreffer and stewart stevens also share chris christie as a clint. you have potential interesting fallout after the election. >> matt, i grew up in boston reading "the boston globe," so i know how excellent that paper can be. help me understand something. you've been seeing mitt romney for years and years. we've all been watching him trying to become president for six years, being governor. how is it he's been in public life for so long and still the american people feel they know so little about him as a man and understand so little about him where he stands in terms of the issues? >> part of it, i think, is romney's own -- he's grown as a candidate, but he's still -- there's a discomfort in some

ways of being a politic and being out there on the campaign trail and relating to average people. he's always been a little bit guarded, even as governor, sort of democrats always point out he had velvet ropes, you know, guarding his corner office and the elevator. he had one elevator reserved for him. there's always been an element of guardedness, i think, about mitt romney. in some ways that's hurt him a little bit on the campaign trail in relating to people. he has gotten better about that. it's still an impediment. >> mary, i would say in these last four years we've seen two different barack obamas. he came to office in 2009 with a promise to change washington. i wouldn't say he got much in the way of results when it came to bipartisan. when you look at the stimulus and health care and working with chuck grassley and olympia snow and all the discussions about the grand bargain, he tried to create some bipartisanship.

there was an abrupt change after the debt ceiling showdown last year. he's more combat itch since then and more willing to call out republicans on his differences with them. i wonder if he's re-elected tonight do you have a sense which two bahamas we would see in a second term. >> i think in the second term you would see obama the academic. he's always going to be the kind of person who wants to reason with people. he's not combative and he's not very confrontational. that's what you saw in the first debate with mitt romney. he's not that type. i think what you will see and i think you will see this period from congress is there's more willingness for people to come together. now it won't be an issue of let's get him out and make him one term if he wins. let's make him a one-term president. now people will get down to business, and i don't think his leadership style will change at all. >> mary, love your glasses. matt, thank you. straight ahead, more from our roving reporter steve kornacki in virginia where the polls

close first. the results could come last. it's high-tension in "the cycle." luckily, kornacki is cool as a cucumber. i would like to give sincere thajs to president obama how he handled the situation. on election day i'm voighting for mitt romney. if i had to pick one day, it would be barack obama. he's been amazing, so kind and a leader and true inspiration. i'll vote for romney, but i'm going to hate it. do you hear me? i will hate it! ♪ [ birds chirping ] are you sure you can fit in there? [ chuckles ] ♪

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so what happens when you send a guy from massachusetts down to virginia? well, he brings the new england cold weather with him. it is chilly here outside okra's restaurant at the corner, the intersection of battle and center streets in ma nas sis, virginia about 45 minutes outside washington. why am i here? i came down here because there is a swing part of what may be the premier swing state, virginia. as peter mentioned in the first segment, this will be one of the first states where we have returns tonight, one of the first battleground states.

the polls here close at 7:00. the importance is obvious. it's specially a must win state for mitt romney. he has to put together a few states that are traditionally republican states that obama won in 2008. virginia is one of them, north carolina, florida, colorado are others. that's a plausible path to 270. he has to do more stuff beyond that. this is a foundation state for him. the opportunity here for obama is pretty simple. get an early lead in virginia, win this state. that's a showstopper that ends the election rights there if obama can pull off a win as he did in 2008. what is going to happen tonight? we've been out today and visited with both campaigns and checked in at their local headquarters. we're in manassas city. prince william county is one of the key swing counties. we talked about campaigns and you get a sense where they are, where they think it's going. if you look at it from the obama standpoint, they would say, hey, look at the demographics.

principle william county is one of the four counties that have experienced explosive growth. particularly when it comes to african-american and hispanic voters. prince william county grew by 43% in the last ten years. now a majority of the population is nonwhite, and for the first time since lbj in 1964, for the first time in 2008, a democrat carried this county, carried prince william in a presidential election, barack obama. he won it by 26,000 votes. if you talk to democrats, they say we'll get the same enthusiasm from african-americans and the same enthusiasm from hispanics. it's going to translate into big numbers out of prince william county and the big numbers out of the three big counties here. if you talk to republicans, they say they're not going to get those numbers. you can see what happened in 2008 when democrats got high turnout from the core groups, but look what happened in 2009. republicans won the governor race in the state with bob mcdonald in a landslide. bob mcdonald carried this

county, carried principle william county. they say the enthusiasm that was there for obama in 2008, not going to be there this time. that's one of the things they point to. they say something they hear nationally, the idea that the polls are basically skewed in a way. they are oversampling democrats and don't give you a good picture of what today's electorates will look like. too many groups are included in two large numbers in the polls. that's another thing. the third thing you hear from republicans here is southwest virginia. this is old school southern democrat country. decades ago it was white, rural, poor, coal country. these were areas where the old southern democrats did well that have -- this is an area that's more and more republican through the years. they stay that in 2008 the nint congressional district in southwest virginia had the lowest turnout numbers in the state. the people now there are very upset with barack obama, especially over coal. it's higher turnout and strongly against obama.

they think they can get an extra 10,000 to 15,000 votes out of there. let's throw it around the table here with you guys in new york. >> steve, as you know, i ran for congress not too far from there, actually a little chunk of prince william county was in those districtsful. i won those pry sixties and it was beautiful. i don't wax nostalgia about my campaign, but i have to tell you today watching the candidates out on the trail thinking about two years ago, i've been feeling nostalgic for that day in particular. even though at the end of the night i lost, it's sum a culmination of all the things that you've been working so hard on. it's such a personal part of your life. it takes over your whole life. all the volunteers are working on your campaign. they bring foot and blankets and hang out in the office and you're together with your staff maybe for the last time where everybody is together. you're going out to polling precincts and actually seeing real voters cast ballots after years in my case of talking

about people voting. so it really has brought back a lot of memories about what a great day that was and how wonderful a feeling it was to participate so directly in the electoral process. >> you were really excited to vote today. >> i was super excited to vote. i couldn't sleep last night. >> i know. >> that's so cute. >> i was so excited. >> last time you weren't in the country? >> in 2008 was overseas in jordan. i watched our election coverage onn onn on al al jazeera last year. >> we started on "today" and went all over the polling stations. >> we went to starbucks together. it was really great. >> i have to keep up my dunkin' doughnuts secret. >> i forced her to go to starbucks. >> we had a nice morning. we were struck how easy it was to vote.

mayor cuomo opened new york because of sandy to vote anywhere. we didn't have to go home during the day to vote at the polling place. we went to one near work together and it was five minutes. it got us thinking about ways to make voting easier, because our experience was not going to be mirrored around the country for sure. you know, you think about early voting and absentee voting and mailing in your votes. everyone is online. why can't we figure that out? i'm open to all the ideas, but it reminded me of a conversation i recently had with john fund who wrote about these ideas. i wanted to bring some of these items up, because maybe people haven't thought about why we're supposed to all vote on one day at the same time at a specific location. you can make up your own minds, but one reason is voting is sort of a sense of community, it's a communal experience. i kind of like that. two, absentee and early voting apparently doesn't actually

increase turnout. if you're a motivated voter you find a way to vote. absentee and early voting favors the biggest bank roll candidate. if you have to get turnout over a few days as opposed to one day you have to keep spending money. then what if i miss something? 85% of the country was able to vote before the last debate, and 15% was able to vote before the first one. so you might sort of miss some of the stuff going on. and then your early vote can't be taken back in a nod to my friend steve kornacki over there when paul wellstone died, absentee voters that voted for him could not take their vote back and vote again when they held the vote. just some things to consider. >> some interesting thoughts there. i'm glad that you, s.e., had the easy voting process, quick and smooth. for a lot of people they're saying this is a high-tech world, and yet the voting things seems to come from 1964, maybe 1864.

it seems a little chaotic. we have a lot of poll workers with hearts in the right place but don't know what they're supposed to tell people, getting wrong information. i think the process is very skewed for something so important for the entire globe, if not just for the nation. the process will be better if a maximum number of people were involved in it. i want to allow voting over several days. tuesday coming from a egrarian society in the 1700s other 1800s when that made sense because people are horse and buys. tuesday is inconvenient for working people who can't get to the polls on that day. i want to see us have voting over several days and automatic registration with a license. that sort of thing. we have a problem with the po r polarization in politics. it will go away when we have more people and you can't play to the edges of thought and ideology when you play more to the middle because everyone is involved with the process. >> voting just on tuesday is

having a big party some people can't make it to, even though they really want to and it's important. from one battleground to another, we're coming back with colorado senior senator mark uda udall, he's from the rocky mountain state where it could be a rough night. the guest spot is next right here on "the cycle." humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

we'rwith questions fromtump sombing elections.kies do you know where your polling place is?

maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans? would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken?

back now with "the cycle's" top-notch election coverage. joins us now is senator mark udall from colorado. the latest polls say the president has a slight leader. obviously, your state is one everyone will be watching. what do you think it is exactly that made colorado a swing state this year?

>> s.e., thanks for having me on. the polls are open until 7:00 here. we're excited. i think the president will win in the end, but colorado has been a swing state for a number of cycles and it's reflective of the independent voters here, suburban women and hispanic vote. what's important and what we're proud of in colorado, our politics work. statewide politicians are forced to and i think want to work to solve problems. i think that's reflected in the fact athat this is a nip and tuck race in colorado. >> for a long time i say that latino voters are decisive in the election. they are enthusiastic and their numbers are huge. colorado is one of the states where they should have a huge impact. what is your sense of what the latino impact on this election in colorado and the nation will be? >> steve, you're spot on. with all due respect my republican colleagues think they lost a real opportunity here with the rigid thinking about immigration reform and the role immigrants play in our society.

we registered many, many thousands of latinos. there's energy there and enthusiasm there. i was in the city of pueblo yesterday knocking on doors in latino neighborhoods. people are voting in huge numbers for the president. >> senator, at the risk of being wildly premature, i want to ask what comes next after this election. since we have you here now, and that is if president obama is re-elected tonight, the first thing on his plate is this whole issue of the fiscal cliff. i don't like the term "cliff," and i think it's more of a gradual slip. schumer said the democrats' bottom line position on this has to be that the bush era rates for high income earners need to go, period. we need to go back to the clinton era rates of 36 and 39.9%. we need to start negotiations from there. the bottom line is at the end of the whatever we come up with, you need that 39 in 39.6% in

clinton era rate for the wealthy. is that an a bottom line issue for democrats? >> i think that the clinton era experience is a very important one to consider, steve. as part of a larger package, i think what senator schumer proposes makes sense. job one, two, three, and four when we return is to get a grand bargain on the fiscal front. i think we ought to stay in session right until christmas if we need to. let's provide some certainty and direction. it would be the most powerful stimulus, if you will, that we can provide to the economy going forward. >> senator, this is krystal ball. i want to jump the gun and talk about what would happen. assuming democrats maintain the majority in the senate, harry reid had interesting comments to our colleague ed schultz about the filibuster. let's take a listen. >> they're filibustering until we have to change the rules. we can't go on like this anymore.

i don't want to get rid of the filibuster, but i have to tell you, i want to change the rules and make the filibuster meaningful. >> he goes on to say that it can be done with a simple majority if the president is re-elected. filibuster reform, is that something you would support? >> i do. i supported it in the last session of the senate. we need to maintain the right of political minorities to be heard, krystal. it's been used 386 since he was majority leader and it was ooused one time for lyndon johnson. the senate has to deliberate and legislate, and we have not been doing so over the last two years. >> senator, two last questions for you. one, where are you going to watch returns tonight? >> i'm going to be in downtown denver at the chariton with the democratic party celebration. i'll also spend time with my good friend, congressman ed who

i expect to be re-elected tonight. >> finally, what county should we walk as a bellwether to let us know, if this county is calling it for bahama or romney, then the state is basically called. >> look at jefferson county aptly named after their third president. two other counties to watch, larimer and aarapahoe. larimer is where ft. collins is and arapahoe is around denver. jefferson county has gone for the victor always. >> good to know. thank you. >> thanks for having me on. >> now, i understand we're very excited about this presidential race, but not everyone feels the same. speaking of colorado, rocky mountain state voter abby sl a little tired of all the campaigning. >> i'm tired of blm barack obama and mitt romney. >> that's you're crying? oh, it will be over soon, abby. okay? the election will be over soon,

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luke, thanks so much for joining us. >> reporter: it's amazing. we put all the effort into the election and tomorrow it's about the fiscal cliff. it's a quick turn around. >> i'm looking forward to that, luke. first of all, obviously, we are focusing a lot on the presidential race. how much of an impact does the presidential race actually have on those down ballot congressional house races? >> well, in a wave year of election it can be significant. this isn't very much of a wave year. this is fighting trench warfare to get the bare minimum they need in the majority. republicans benefit from redistricting. democrats need on paper 25 seats to get back with the majority. it's more like 30, 35 when you account for redistricting and retirement. democrats are not competing where they were able to get the seats needed to go to the majority. what am i talking about? blue dog democrats. democrats who are pro-gun, more outspoken about religion. those folks that made nancy

pelosi speaker in 2006 really helped president obama in 2008. they've pretty much been extinct this time around. their numbers are dwindling and those are the folks that democrats would need to win to get that majority. they don't look too well right now, and they probably wouldn't be until there's another wave. >> russert, i'm digging the tie. >> thank you very much. i appreciate that. >> look, let's talk to me about the future of object construction. mitch mcconnell and the house republicans said their goal was to make obama a one term president. if that fails, where do they go from here? do they continue obstructing just for obstruction's sake or let that go? >> reporter: the main question has to do with the bush tax cuts for those making 250 or above. i know you just spoke about it with mark udall. interestingly enough, we got an e-mail last night from speaker boehner's team forwarding a politico story showing how boehner would play hardball with the tax cuts.

there's no discussion of raising them. that's the million dollar question. no one knows the answer to that right now. what we're hearing from republicans in the house is if the president is re-elected, the choice is up to him, quote-unquote. will he work with them through comprehensive tax reform to grow the base on which to accrue revenue or go to the mat for the 250 or above? if it throws down at that and there's no movement, republicans say there's a lot of obstructionism. that's what they charge. if the president is willing to not allow those tax rates to expire, perhaps they can work on other things. the one thing we hear consistently is if president obama has the big vision for the next four years to get re-elected and wants to get immigration reform. there's some consensus, some sort of bipartisanship with the fiscal cliff issues or else everything is for not according to gas. >> when i covered the house the most fascinating thing was this intense rivalry between pelosi

and steny, and she beat him ten years ago and kept him at bay since them. making sure his supporters aren't in leadership positions and aren't in the path to hurt her anyway and her leadership. there are signs that if the democrats fall short tomorrow on the house races she might not finally be stepping down. i know she's delayed the leadership elections. is that the expectation, that she'll step down, and do you think -- where do democrats go, then? can she find a successor who is not steny hoyer? >> that's a very fascinating dynamic that will go on over the next month. the question is whether or not she retires. if she retires and hands it off to steny hoyer, we do not know. while they put forward a public face of being the best of friends, there's been a rivalry there. she did support jack murtha, the late jack murtha over steny hoyer in a leadership fight a few years back. mrs. pelosi doesn't make someone

she would like to see jump over hoyer. she holds a lot of weight. the liberals in the caucus trust her more than hoyer. if you look at the makeup of that caucus, it's a lot more liberal than blue dog and moderate. that's where hoyer tloohrives. pelosi, hoyer, clyburn are over 70 years old. democrats all agree there needs to be new blood to move the party forward over the next two, four, six, eight years. how that comes together mrs. pelosi has a lot of power in it, but a lot of folks want preel change up top in the leadership positions. >> luke, we've all been working like crazy this year and it feels like the last four years building up for this leak. i know the first thing i'm going to do when this election is over with my time off. i'm going hunting. what are you going to do? >> you're going hunting?

is that paul ryan style? >> you heard me. >> if this is not a cliff-hanger election, i'm going to boston college versus notre dame this saturday. the catholic super bowl. look, congress is back next week, next tuesday. fiscal cliff discussions start. we probably won't have a thanksgiving on capitol hill. we probably won't have a christmas on capitol hill. >> it's a sad story, luke. >> i won't know until january 2nd. wherever i spend new year's will be my relaxation time. >> luke, i have one more critical question to ask you pertaining to vital information viewers want tonight while watching the returns. the three of us here, we weren't able to get steven on this. we decided that the official cycle drinking game would be to drink every time someone says too close to call. i wanted to get you to weigh in on what your recommended drinking game for the night would be, luke russert? >> oh, my goodness.

what a question on the spot. i'm at iowa state university, so i assume a lot will go on here. too close to call is a good one. for me i think red state, blue state is a good one. i like that one. my personal favorite has to be when they call the local sort of county commissioner person. if that person gets on tv, that's a major drink. we're going to county commissioner so-and-so. so some county commissioner in ohio, he gets on, that's a double-shot. >> that's a great suggestion. i like the triumphant music that plays when a state is declared for one candidate or the other. thanks so much. have fun tonight. >> soundtrack. take care, guys. enjoy the day and be well. >> we looked into our crystal ball about the house. we went there. the senate and president should really be watching these match-ups. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪

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tonight as the election returns come in, it will be a thrilling night of kos and not just because of heavyweight title fight between obama and romney, there's several tasty battles on the undercard. elizabeth warren and scott brown. todd akin and mccaskill.

linda mcphone versus murphy. let's talk about the future of the senate. let's bring in a gentleman and scholar who knows as much as anyone alive, jimy williams. >> that's my claim to fame. i might be more positive thathe. >> we talk about presidential coattails sweeps down people into office. is there a reverse coattails effect ever where the senate candidates helped the president win? >> yes and no. not really. not always. not usually. you do have some times. let's take this race, for example. obama is doing well with women, but let's take, for example, the wisconsin race. if you look at the trending of the polls, tammy baldwin is trending well. wisconsin, guess what? obama won wisconsin by 15 points last time, he's up by 4 right

now. why? women. why are they motivated? because of tammy baldwin. women are out in force, 3:1 out there canvassing for her. it's women. that's helpful to obama. take stab gnaw, a rust belt state. is he going to win it? because of the auto bailout. he's doing well with women and not so well. 17--point advantage against her opponent on the gop side. women are giving barack obama the down pal lot push he needs from senate candidate. another outlier very quick which is bob kerry. he's the former senator from the great state of nebraska, lived in new york for ten years. he's running and going to lose unfortunately in my opinion. what's he going to do? he's going to give barack obama one electoral vote. how? because lincoln and other urban areas of nebraska, they split their electoral votes in

nebraska and maine. he'll give that vote in 2008. he gets one electoral vote out of nebraska because of down ballot ticket. >> you brought up wisconsin, and that's a state i'm taking a risk on going red. i think the ousting of russ feingold, the election of scott walker, the re-election of scott walker, i think the state is ripe for flipping, but it's a state that is divided often so they might vote for a democratic president but vote for a republican governor or a republican congressman. as you mentioned, tammy baldwin is up about two points over tommy thompson. >> every poll but one has her up from two to six. >> if baldwin wins and if it gets called for baldwin, can we assume it's going to go with obama? or all bets are off in wisconsin? >> he's actually outpolling her by two points. the answer to that is, yes, i think so. keep in mind when the recall came out, what did people walk

out of the exit poll saying? when someone says to you walking out of a voting booth, they say to you, i voted for walker but the reason i did is because he deserves the right to have four years and i'm for barack obama. that tells you serve you need to know. it goes to your point which is people will split tickets in certain states. they'll do it in virginia. will we see a ton of romney/kaine ticket splitter? will we see any allen/obama ticket splitters? none. >> what happens if tommy thompson wins. >> everybody on the ground tells me thompson is not going to win. the reason being the female vote and obama has been in that state since the day that paul ryan was announced as the vp running mate. he's got a ton of offices there and, frankly, spening thding th money and all those visits to wisconsin will put him over the ton and i think tammy baldwin as well. >> steve, what do you got? >> on that subject of the ticket

splitters in virginia between the presidential and senate race, we were out this morning visiting with both parties. i talked to a republican who said he gave me the prediction he thinks romney ends up winning the state by three to six points but he said when it comes to the senate race he thinks romney needs to win by four to get george allen over the top. so he said there is an advantage there, kaine is performing better than obama and picking up some crossover support. the race on my mind is in massachusetts, elizabeth warren, scott brown. it looks like this thing has really broken in elizabeth warren's favor. she's favored to win tonight and i'm wondering about this post-election scenario that could kick off. we know hillary clinton is leaving as secretary of state. john kerry would very much like to be secretary of state and i look at it this way. if john kerry is picked to be secretary of state and elizabeth warren wins the senate race tonight, then it means that thereto will be a senate vacancy in massachusetts that will be

filled by a special election and it means scott brown who is a popular politician in massachusetts even if he loses tonight would be able to run in that special election and win. i wonder if that possibility would give the white house pause when it comes to picking john kerry as a secretary of state. >> i think it's legitimate to say that and i think it's legitimate scott brown could win in a special election. he did it the last time. it's not like they don't like him. i think -- he's take an couple votes that were not the smartest votes, and so i think at this point if he were to lose, and every poll has scott brown losing at this point and the president is up by like 20 points in the state, so elizabeth warren will probably be the next senator from the commonwealth of massachusetts. if that's the case, scott brown is out and is he ripe? yeah, he'll raise a ton of money. we know he can. he'll go in a proverbial favorite on the gop side, especially if he doesn't lose by more than four or five points. i think that says what else gop contender could be out there? >> jimmy, this will likely be

the second straight election cycle where republicans could have taken the majority in the senate but failed to do so because they nominated a bunch of unelectable people. you think about sharron angle, christine o'donnell, richard mourdock, todd akin, et cetera, et cetera. if the republicans fail to take the majority this time which it looks like they are not going to be able to do, do you think that's going to spark some soul searching on the republican side of the aisle? >> well, it should. i think there are a couple things that are going to be colliding like atoms. one of them will be the female vote. think about it, christine o'donnell, a woman, she lost though. she lost huge because she was a little bit kooky-fied. >> is that a technical term. >> it is now. you have todd akin talking about women's rights. you don't m he is with women when it comes to the issue of politics and their body. you just don't do it. the second thing is immigration reform. that's coming. no matter who the next president

is, they will have to do something on immigration reform. both sides are demanding it. if that's the case, watch the tea party rear its ugly head again and beat the living hell out of the republicans on that. by the way, that's also a bipartisan issue. i know plenty of democrats who feel major heat over the immigration reform but it's got to happen. so to that point, if you nominate fringe candidates, it's the same on the left, if you nominate fringe candidates you can't always win. they've blown two cycles in a way. obama goes from the senate to the oval office. who in the senate right now is most likely to be able to go from the senate to the oval office in 2016, 2020. >> a sleeper senate is ker st gillibrand. he's making moves. she's out there raising money all over the country for these

folks. watch kirsten gillibrand. she's going to make a move and i grn at this you she won't stop until she gets to the presidency. >> she could be the second female president of the united states. that does it for "the cycle." keep it on msnbc prime time for the best election coverage in the world. martin bashir is straight ahead right here from democracy plaza. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility.

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