president obama and michael jackson and james brown. i tell personal stories of what i learned on my journey. not so you would understand me, but so you could understand yourself. it doesn't matter your race. we all need to stop feeling like we're rejected. and make it together. thanks for watching. i'm al sharpton. "hardball" starts right now. time to hold. let's play "hardball." ♪ good evening. i'm chris matthews in new york. let me start tonight with this. there's a time to parly and a time to wait, hold your ground and wait for the other side to wilt. and it's my prediction he would get nothing, nada, zilch, zero.

this is a time to wait for the speaker of the house to come to him and ask for a meeting. when will that be? when the mail from folks back home continues to have angry kplat they can't get government to do anything, can't get them to open the gates of the national parks, can't get them to send paychecks, can't get them to do for what citizens have a right to demand they do. it's when those letters begin barking up the congressman's office that the gentleman or gentlelady will start to wonder if shutting down the government was as nifty an idea as ted cruz told them it would be. they will then pull aside the speaker asking if it might be possible the tea party hayride had all the fun it's likely to have this fall and time for it to head back to the barn. so stand tough, mr. president. you're already standing tall. there's nobody in the world who expects you to give into this strange kidnapping where the perp in this case instead of

grabbing the baby instead of the money is grabbing the money and demanding your baby. jay carney is the white house press secretary. president obama launched a political offensive tonight against republicans. and hours before the shutdown, the president spoke plainly and forcefully about the faction of republicans who have taken the government as their hostage. >> sometimes to the consternation of my own party. but one faction of one party in one house of congress in one branch of government doesn't get to shut down the entire government just to re-fight the results of an election. keeping the people's government open is not a concession to me. keeping vital services running and hundreds of thousands of americans on the job is not something you give to the other side. it's our basic responsibility.

>> president obama also made it clear to republicans that their brand of extortion is what he called it, won't win them any concessions from the white house or the american people when it comes to the president's health care law. >> you don't get to extract a ransom for doing your job. for doing what you're supposed to be doing anyway. or just because there's a law there that you don't like. >> jay carney, thank you for joining us. sometimes i sense with the president, you're closer to him than we are in the press, a sense of zenlike calmness he's on the right side of this fight and the other is on the wrong side. is that correct? >> thank you for having me. he certainly believes in his heart that it is the right thing to do to insist that congress fund the government and not shut it down. it's the right thing to do to insist that congress fulfill its responsibilities to pay its bills and not let the united states default. i mean, think about it this way. the president's not asking for anything in return for this.

the way that the republicans are adding demands to the agreement to fulfill their essential responsibilities. if the president were behaving the way republicans were behaving, he would say you know what? i want to attach a background check bill. public supports it. i couldn't get it through the senate, but i'm going to attach this and i won't sign a bill that funds the government unless republicans agree to that. or i won't sign a bill that raises the debt ceiling unless republicans agree to some item of mine. and he's not saying that. and democrats aren't saying that. they're simply saying that congress should pay our bills and congress should ensure that the government doesn't shut down. >> is he talking to the speaker tonight? has he spoken with him yet tonight? >> you know, i don't have a conversation right now to sort of read out to you, chris. the president did say earlier today that he would be speaking with the leaders today. so i expect that will happen. look, i think that the action right now is in congress.

the opportunity right now is in the house. the house could act very easily to pass what the senate passed which is a clean continuing resolution. a bill that cleanly extends government funding so that the government doesn't shut down at midnight and does so for several weeks. so that there's time to negotiate over our priorities and how we fund the government and how we ensure that the middle class is secure. so the house can do that. and there are stories out there now about how there are far and away a majority in the house that's willing to do that. if only the speaker of the house would put that out for a vote. >> how long could the president hold out? i believe over time the tea party calls will be overtaken about those negative about the loss of government to them. how many weeks will it take? i think it is going to be weeks for the other side to get calls from their district, people at home saying stop it already. >> well, the president hopes and we all here hope that it doesn't take any time at all.

that the common sense will prevail on capitol hill, that the house will act appropriately, that speaker boehner will allow a vote to come to pass that funds the government. and then in several weeks, we don't do this all over again with even higher stakes. >> yeah. don't you think that's where we're headed? >> well, i hope not, chris. the impact of that would be calamitous as you know. >> i know. the indications are the right wing in the republican party who seem to be running the train are quite willing to stop the government and if you listen to them, quite willing to stop the economy. >> well, i think that's terrible. and i really think -- i know all of the accurate analysis about how congressional districts are very, you know, ideological now and only listening to conservatives in their conservative districts. i get that, but i think, you know, americans are americans everywhere. and when it comes to families who are effected by a government

shutdown because a family member is losing a paycheck or they run a business that depends on a national park being open, or they have a veteran in their family who can't call veterans call center for help because it's been shut down, that they will begin to see that this is a nonsensical approach to getting our business done in washington. we ought to be able to do it in a way that doesn't effect people's lives negatively the way the republicans are taking this. >> if the speaker is able to take everything off of the bill, the continuing resolution, make it clean except for something like a medical devices thing, something to give them a face saver, would the president urge nancy pelosi to bring enough to help it carry? >> you had a big if there. the issue about the medical device tax is another effort to disrupt, derail, defund obama care. and, you know, to delay or effect the implementation of this important bill. here's the other irony.

republicans used to claim they would engage in these showdowns because they were so concerned about the deficit and the debt. but you know that's become to -- eliminating that tax increases the deficit. delaying the implementation of the individual mandate significantly increases the debt. they're not even serious about this issue anymore. and he's committed to doing more as long as we do it in a responsible way. >> jay carney, press secretary to president obama. democrats may be hoping the public outrage will knock sense into house republicans. a new cnn poll shows more will blame republicans in congress for a shutdown. 36% say they'd blame obama, 46% would blame republicans. a supermajority of republicans, 66% would blame obama for a

government shutdown compared to only 16% would blame their own party. and the republicans won't lose any standing with independents either. this is bad news for obama. independents are even split when it comes to blaming either part. 38% would blame obama, 39% republicans. what political incentive is there for republicans led by speaker boehner to get the government in line and get the government moving? would it be the beating from the dropping stock market we could expect to continue? the shutting down of government itself? howard fineman is an msnbc political analyst. my analysis is they've been getting lots of mail two weeks thanks to ted cruz and mike lee and the rest saying fight the president. at some point the letters from the other side which is enough already will begin and my hunch is by the time they go through the letters, we'll have negotiations going on. >> i think that's what's happening right now. the republicans got a big fat letter from the chamber of

commerce today which is equivalent in some ways to a lot of little letters from people around the country. the chamber leaning very hard on the republicans not to shut the government down talking about the economic consequences. and don't forget the chamber of commerce has become much more active and conservative in recent years. they've opposed obama care, fought the president tooth and nail on budget policy. here they're saying, look, we can fight about obama care some other time. don't shut the government down. there's word late tonight as the speaker tries to bring forth yet another condition laden spending bill, continuing resolution, that he's facing revolt on both sides. he's facing a falling away of conservative support who know longer think what he's trying to do is strong enough and confrontational enough, and a falling away of support from moderate republicans who went along with the last one sort of, but are real sick of the thing now especially now that the chamber of commerce have gotten

involved. i think the president's statement today was forceful and politically effective. and i sense things shifting a little here. the problem, though, is that speaker boehner is now completely lost it. he's a weak character to begin with, completely lost control of the caucus. it's not clear where he can go from here if the current plan fails which means the government will shut down tonight. >> they went from the speaker's position was shut down obama care totally. then it was shut down funding for one year. and now it's something about the individual mandate. >> yeah. it doesn't sound like that's flying. >> so he can't find a consensus. right, left, center of his party. >> right. i think that's what's happening. he may be left in the humiliating position he was in the other year where if he wants to do anything, he's got to get democratic support for it. that used to be a good thing. that used to be called bipartisanship. that's a bad thing in his universe right now, but that's where he may end up if he doesn't want the republican party to get hammered as an

increasing will for shutting down the government. >> what's the end game here? could it be a generalized commitment by both sides to some near term commissioner action, entitlement reform, something that gives the republicans a home with for maybe half their members to be satisfied with. >> it's interesting you mentioned that. i was speaking to senator pat leahy, democrat, very experienced guy. he said what they should have done is put together some kind of commission. yeah. obama care's a huge endeavor and the public phase of it starts tomorrow. not coincidentally. and leahy said let's put together a commission, get the top people from each party, put them in a roo m. if ted cruz ask serious, get him in a room with some of the proponents of obama care and talk about what might need to be changed and separate that from the question of keeping the government in action. the other thing that's happened here as you well know, it used

to be congress would pass individual spending bills. >> sure. they had appropriations bills. >> now they have the continuing resolution which is for the whole government. >> i know. >> and it's too attractive a nuisance and too attractive an apock apocalyptic thing. >> cruz had a lot about doing it for holding a meeting between the budget committees. then would have set the guidelines for the appropriations committee. by the way, we never had a total shutdown. back in the '80s, because we had appropriations passed on time. >> you had different pieces of it. >> howard fineman, thank you. you're an expert. coming up, the man leading republican lemmings off the cliff, ted cruz. he may be the guy that benefits the most. he's getting famous. everyone else is getting hurt. also may give the democrats their main chance to win back the house next year. and for years republicans told us it's all about jobs,

jobs, jobs, so why would they do something guaranteed to hurt the american economy? unless there's a point to it politically. let me finish tonight for a sobering time. this is "hardball," the place for politics. >> republicans have said that if we lock these americans out of affordable health care for one more year, if we sacrifice the health care of millions of americans, then they'll fund the government for a couple of more months. does anybody truly believe that we won't have this fight again in a couple more months? even at christmas? customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didn't fit. customer's not happy, i'm not happy. sales go down, i'm not happy. merch comes back, i'm not happy. use ups. they make returns easy. unhappy customer becomes happy customer. then, repeat customer. easy returns, i'm happy. repeat customers, i'm happy. sales go up, i'm happy.

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welcome back to "hardball." i was interrupted with the news the house did pass the preliminary vote to take up the continuing resolution. which speaker boehner is presenting. looks like we're going to have a government shutdown tonight. welcome back to "hardball." where would we be without ted cruz? there's a thought. cruz spent the summer whipping up the base and make them think it was achievable. they spent the last few weeks whipping their republicans in congress often at the expense of john boehner and his efforts to find a way out of the mess. cruz has earned himself enemies in his own party. but in the vacuum of republican leadership nationally. yesterday on "meet the press" david gregory pointed out to

cruz that polls show americans want the affordable care act upheld. and there's no protests in the street to do away with the law. >> the facts are becoming more and more clear. that obama care isn't working. every day that's becoming more clear. there's a reason the unions are jumping ship. one union after another is saying let me out. now, why is it that harry reid and the senate democrats are not willing to listen to the millions of working men and women -- >> wait a second. you're making an argument. i asked you a specific question based on the facts on the ground. my goodness, you spoke for 21 hours to make these arguments. you haven't moved anyone. >> the american people overwhelmingly reject obama care. they understand it's not working. the only people who aren't listening to the argument are the career politicians in washington. the great thing about the constitution is that it creates a system of checks and balances. each branch has the ability to check another. >> someone might tell senator cruz the system of checks and

balances worked in this case. the law was passed by congress, the president did sign the affordable care act, and the supreme court weighed in and upheld the affordable care act. the president was re-elected on the affordable care act issue. what is cruz actually talking about here? david corn is the washington bureau chief for mother jones and jonathan capehart for the washington post. i want to start with jonathan. this is a fascinating bit of leadership. i'm not praising it, i'm noting it. here's a guy that can come in a few months as senator, he upsets the favorite in the primary and all of is sudden he's instructing the entire country on this new look at the american constitution. we pass a law through both houses of congress, they reconcile their differences, signed by both hos houses, by the president, reviewed by the supreme court. and in this case the president gets re-elected on that issue against an opponent very much against it. case closed. oh, no.

there's this new procedure whereby, it's a new vote. which tries to make a complete replay of the whole game. because he says so. now, he has to be scared of someone like george w. bush with his limited abilities was able to take us to war. here's a guy with a brain, obviously, able to take us into a new version of the constitution that he has just written on the fly. >> right. and look at this it way, chris. here's a man who is able to fill this vacuum. he's been able to rise to the prominence that he's been able to rise to because there's no grownup within the republican party who's one, willing to stand up to him, and two -- >> okay. who's eric cantor, speaker boehner? are they just standing there and student council presidents without a real job?

>> they have a real job on paper, it would seem. >> doesn't seem like they're effective. let me go to david on this. i don't know what to say expect this guy comes from nowhere issuing new battle orders and defines the enemy and seems to be winning with it. >> this is not wizardry here. he's not hypnotizing the gop. the reason he's getting away with this, chris, is because he has the base of the party in his arms. he's representing where the party has moved. john boehner and he rode into speakership because of the tea party. and he's been to it ever since. this is the energy out there in the party that the party leaders can't deny today, two three hours ago i ran into trent lott. remember him? he used to think he was a pretty arch conservative representing the conservative wing of the party. i said how are all your old friends in the senate? he was majority leader there. he said they're not happy.

one thing they have to do -- these are his words -- they have to cut ted cruz's legs out from under him. he knows there's a battle for the heart and soul of the party. it's just that ted cruz is winning at the moment. people like lindsey graham and john mccain are in the dust. >> what is this horse whisperer, what magic words is he whispering into the ears of house republicans to have all of them follow him? jonathan? >> i think david hit on it. that is ted cruz has the base of the party, the tea party base now of the republican party wrapped in his arms. >> how? >> you know, chris, i'm mystified by it. i'm also mystified by the fact you could have a senator whipping votes in the house to defy the speaker. that gets to the big question here which is if speaker boehner were really speaker, this would never happen.

you think this would happen when nancy pelosi was there? >> no. this is wonderful condescension for a senator to come over and chat with his colleagues. the national view reported on something remarkable this friday after speaker boehner tried to sell on the plan with the debt ceiling instead of a fight to fund the government right now. senator cruz lobbied house republicans to oppose their speaker. according to the national review, quote, on a thursday koun fence call a group culted with ted cruz of texas about how to respond to the fiscal strategy. sources on the call said they advised them to oppose it and hours later speaker boehner's plan fizzled. he has the power to break the leadership. >> what's remarkable here is reports today are that they might be up to 175 house republicans who would vote for a clean cr that would continue this government spending. and that there really are 30 to

60 house republicans saying no. and maybe as few as 30. and so john boehner cannot control a quarter of his party that are listening more to ted cruz than they are to him. and you having worked for tipper -- for tip, excuse me, back in the '80s, you know what it takes to be a speaker. sometimes you have to control people and make them do what they don't want to do. ba this is not over yet, but up to now, ted cruz has been whip sawing john boehner who can't put at bay those 30 hard core republicans led by people like michele bachmann. >> let's talk about what would happen here. jonathan, you first, as a student of this process. it seems it's not hard to get rid of a speaker if you're willing to go on the floor and offer up a motion, make a call, get the leadership to get it

scheduled if the guy breaks with the party. if he breaks with the party, if boehner says i'm going with the majority and stop with this and we're going to get this government working again. it's my job. i took an oath to keep the government working with. i don't care what the right says. would he be challenged or knocked off as speaker? do you see that happening? >> i do see that happening. he would lose his speakership almost guaranteed. but if he were to say exactly what you just said, john boehner would be a hero. >> to who? >> to the american people because for once he is saying he's staring down the radicals within his party. he's being a leader, and he's -- if it were to happen, preventing the government from shutting down. he might not be able to do it now -- >> when is his sister soldier moment when he says you guy are ruining our reputation? >> chris, i think it gets -- it might be too late to prevent a

government shutdown, but it has to be before october 17th. it has to be before the united states crashes through the debt ceiling. >> john boehner could get away with it if he thought eric cantor and others would not stab him in the back doing so. we're talking about maybe 30 members who'd put up a fuss against him, who wants him out. >> that's a fascinating analysis. >> if newt gingrich was able to put down a rebellion as he did, john boehner could with the right leadership skills -- maybe he should read chris' book "hardball." >> no. i think it's time to read julius caesar. i think his is more appropriate. >> he's been dying a death by a thousand cuts for a long time with those two deputies of his. >> i know. i don't know who to trust. i like boehner, but he seems like a guy in the old jack lemon movie save the tiger or something. thank you. up next, a look back at what

happened last time the republicans in congress shut down the government. back in '95 under newt gingrich who started all this. this is "hardball," the place for politics. [ female announcer ] we lowered her fever. you raise her spirits. we tackled your shoulder pain. you make him rookie of the year. we took care of your cold symptoms. you take him on an adventure. tylenol® has been the number 1 doctor recommended brand of pain reliever

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new rule. stop asking how ted cruz managed to speak on the senate floor for 21 hours without taking a bathroom break. it's obvious. who needs a bathroom when you've got that much crap coming out of your mouth? since binge watching is in and filibusters are in, john boehner must make a series for netflix in which he replaces obama. and it's called orange is the new black. >> welcome back to "hardball." he can say anything, that guy. welcome back to "hardball." time for the sideshow. that was bill maher. this week all eyes are on

congress again as we approach a government shutdown. it's worth noting we've seen this movie before back in 1995. that shutdown went on for a total of 28 days lasting through the christmas holidays and into the new year. we went to the archives and assembled some scenes from back then. as you'll see, this is one trip down memory lane we're not looking forward to. >> tonight much of the government remains shut down. >> the government is partially shutting down. >> many of americans' favorite parks and monuments are closed. >> garbage offers pungent testimony to the cutbacks in service. >> almost half of the federal government employees are idle. >> we will give you the money to bring back the furloughed employees, you sign on the line. >> it's unreal. >> they're acting like school children. >> it was the biggest one-day decline in more than four years. >> i think it's disgusting. i think it's pitiful and sick. >> it is wrong for the congress to shut the government down just to make a political point the week before christmas.

>> the only thing working are the political gains. >> i'd like to kick out the whole damn bunch of them. >> can you believe how young clinton and newt gingrich looked? you think that was bad, remember the sequel is never as good as the original. up next, the republican crackup. could democrats win back the house of representatives next year if the government gets shut down for real and long? you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. to doing wha, more is better. that's why we designed the all-new nissan versa note, with more technology, to get you into, and out of, tight spots. and more space so that you always have your favorite stuff. and, just for good measure, an incredibly efficient 40 mpg highway. so that when you're doing more, you're spending less. the all-new nissan versa note. your door to more. now get a $139 per month lease on a 2014 nissan versa note. ♪ now get a $139 per month lease on a 2014 nissan versa note. it's been that way since the day you met.

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rescue crews are trying to reach five people buried under a rock slide in colorado. a girl was rushed to the hospital. president obama met with benjamin netanyahu. he said the u.s. will still

consider all options to keep iran from developing nuclear weapons. and amanda knox's third trial for his roommate in italy. back to "hardball." republicans know this is a loser for them. so republicans are going to have to learn the lessons of this. you can't have an all or nothing approach. >> the democrats think this is a loser for us. i think everybody agrees this is a loser for us if the government shuts down. >> that was jon huntsman of utah and paul labrador of idaho yesterday with me acknowledging a shutdown would be bad politics for their party. both said that. and today's cnn poll shows 46% of people would blame

republicans, 36% president obama, and 13% both sides. the republicans may have given the democrats their only window of hope to take back congress. democrats hold a three point average. meaning three percent more say they'll vote for a democrat next time. but with the shutdown imminent right now, democrats are quietly hoping they can leverage anger at the republicans next november. joining me right now are joy reid and a.b. stoddard. joy, it's interesting. i was looking at some math we got from charles cook, the election expert. for democrats to win the house next time, they not only have to buck the normal six year trend, the two term presidency which always goes against the president dramatically so, they have to buck another trend which is democrats have to carry something like 53.4% of the electorate across the board in order to win the house because of the way of gerrymandering and

segregated housing. big cities tend to be heavily democrat and overweight themselves in their own districts whereas republicans can skim by with 53%. it just works that way. do you think there's something in this sort of grand betrayal i would say of their jobs which republicans are engaged in, not doing their duty of keeping the government open which is their job. not to play politics. is this going to hurt them enough to lose the house? >> the key in that is going to be older voters. the advantage republicans normally carry into midterm elections is the undervoting, the underrepresenting of minority voters, younger voters, single women. those three tend not to come out in strong numbers in midterms. you're going to have a lot of anger in those groups. if you have head start breaking down, women infants and children, that could motivate young moms and mothers. but what republicans have is the lock on the older voter who tend to be pro-shutdown before it kicks in.

if you start seeing pain among military members and in virginia, pennsylvania where you've got the older voter who can get disgusted with republicans. if they stay home in larger numbers, that's the only shot for democrats. they have to have disgust with this process by the older, whiter voter who typically votes republican. >> you know one of the small things that may not seem normal to most people, one of the joys of getting older in this country and there are joys, you get to travel and visit the beautiful sites in the west. they're all going to be closed. imagine getting out there and find out your trip to wyoming which is a great state except for a couple people who live there like the cheneys, kidding. you'll look forward to this over the next 30 years, that for ten bucks you can visit any national park for as long as you live. just one time $10. those won't work now. these things will bug people in the next couple weeks. >> i really do think the

government is going to shut down tonight. i don't think it will be very long lasting. i don't think the republican party is going to embrace a long shutdown. and i think that they're going to take care of this quickly. but i do think they're going to let it happen. >> how are they going to get out of the chinese handcuffs they put themselves in? >> it's simple. you've seen moderate republicans working tonight. they are the same mind as senate republicans for the four people with ted cruz, they want to clean cr. they don't want to shut down the government and they want to move on. i think there's support and john boehner knows that eventually at some point he's going to pass something and he's going to say i tried it your way. he might even say we shut down the government. i don't think it's going to be long lasting. i think when you look forward to the midterm elections, joy is right. charlie cook is right. you'll see an older white male electorate. this is a problem with obama care unless it's an immediate

overnight success story and we see high popularity for it next summer, it has not adversely effected consumer demand or the greater economy at large, then we're going to see the six-year pattern which is that republicans are going to hold their gerrymander seat quite easily. they've nearly shut down the government before, nearly defaulted before, partially shut down the faa. none of that bothered anybody. i see this as a problem for them building a coalition for the white house in 2016. that's what the party is worried about. >> do you think the president should offer to debate ted cruz on national television, joy? >> no. i think the president needs to elevate ted cruz. ted cruz ease constituency are the people listening to talk radio and they believe their strange ideology this is what it means to fight. you have this sense among the republican base, believe it or not, that their party doesn't fight. that they let obama win. and they want to see themselves win even if it means shutting

down the government. i have to disagree with two things a.b. just said. number one, the people who are mostly the uninsured are younger people. the estimate of 7 million people by and large getting obama care in the first -- if you don't have insurance at all and you get it and experience being able to have that card and go to the doctor, i think that is going to open you up to a message by the obama folks who are going to try to get out that non-traditional vote. that's number one. i think the other issue is with older voters despite the fact that, yes, they are tending to be more conservative and lean gop, i think what you said does matter. people at a certain point are going to be disgusted with the gridlock and the idea we can't have this move forward. i think there's a chance older voters say there's no more of this. they're going to come out of this feeling more powerful and they're going to take the fight to the debt limit which is even worse. >> i think ted cruz is a roman candle. bright, shiny, exciting for a

short period of time of thank you. up next, how many jobs will be lost if the government shuts down tonight and stays shut down? a lot of them. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪ [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines

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welcome back to "hardball." if republicans care about jobs and the economy so much, why are they marching towards a government shutdown tonight that the chamber of commerce of this country say would hurt jobs and economy? a letter to congress put out by the chamber of commerce nationally and signed by 251

organizations in a wide range of industries cautioned against a shutdown. quote, it is not in theest interest of the employers, employees, or the american people to risk a government shutdown. it will be economically disruptive and create more uncertainties for the u.s. economy. and half of the ceos in a survey said the partisan budget fights are having a negative bakt on their plans for hiring additional employees in the next six months. see all the red down arrows, of course. that means wall street doesn't like the shutdown either. the dow dropped almost a full percentage point. nice going by the party that likes to consider themselves pro-business. steef ratner and jerry connolly. congressman, thank you for coming on. i'll get to steven in a second. terms of all politics as local as tip used to say, what is it going to mean? i find it hard to believe that

republicans after hearing all their negative letters coming in from the tea party types will now be getting letters over the next days or weeks perhaps from people that don't get services, don't get phones answered. i think they'll begin to say i think this wasn't such a nifty idea. to kill the government for a while. >> you're absolutely right, chris, and you know, frankly, it's going to affect the ordinary lives of ordinary americans in very big ways over time, you know? it's going to affect sign-up for social security, sign-up for medicare, sign-up for veterans benefits. it's going to affect services we take for granted, keeping food safe, drugs safe, water clean. it's not just going to be the national parks closing down, because remember, one difference between this shutdown and the last one is this is comprehensive. it affects the entire federal government, because we haven't passed any appropriations bills. >> unlike the '80s when i worked up there when we passed a lot of appropriations, and by october 1st, there were just a few left over. you didn't have a government shutdown. you had agency shutdown.

steve rattner, what businesses have shutdowns? i'm just curious. do businesses ever just shut down for a while for their health? >> chris, no business would run its business the way the federal government runs its business, not just the shutdowns, but planning two months at a time with no budget. as you say, not a single appropriations bill passed. no business operates that way. >> what do you think will be the impact on the market? looking forward to october 17th, jack lew is an honest man. whatever you think of his ideology, philosophy, jack's an honest guy. when he says october 17th is the day we ought to worry about not having the debt ceiling extended, you ought to worry about is it? what do you think about the next two weeks, steve? >> the october 17th date is a real date. you and i have known jack a long time and as you say, he's a very honest guy. we've had shutdowns before, a lot of shutdowns, maybe not as bad as this one for the reasons you said a second ago, but what we've never had in the whole entire history of this country is a default on our debt, a default on our payments to social security recipients to medicare recipients.

every single person who receives money or business that receives money from the federal government. that is really unchartered waters, and i think if you talk to any businessman or wall street person, they will tell you that it is magnitude scarier than even a shutdown is. >> congressman, tom donohue of the chamber and the "wall street journal," i don't often cite positively, but look at the drum roll we've been getting from those guys, saying don't do this. and yet, the republican members, your colleagues on the other side of the aisle seem to be more responding to the tea party noise from people who don't know what the economy's going to look like in a week or two. >> absolutely, the irony of that is for a crowd who says we're going to run the government more like a business -- what business would trash its workforce, shut down its own operations and threaten or refuse to pay its bills? how would that fair on wall street in how would that fair in the public marketplace? i mean, this is craziness. and sadly, my colleagues on the other side of the aisle seem to have been captured by some kind of mass psychosis that's

obsessed with obama care at any cost, and they don't care who it hurts. >> you think anybody could have been this peter pan character, ted cruz? anybody could have flown in the window and started talking about the evils of obama care and they'd be just as good as this guy. is it about obama care or the charisma of the sort of the guy we're looking at right now, ted cruz? which is it? >> i tend to think there's been a deep-seeded hatred of this president. it's irrational. and they've blonned on to his signature legislation and they're willing to take down the government, including the people we serve, at their cost. >> steve, you're a former journalist, business guy, you understand thinking. is it about the guy? there's a new poll that shows if you call it obama care, it gets a lot worse treatment from the public than if you call it the affordable care act. >> i think a lot of it is about the guy, but about the program for two reasons. first, we have never in the history of of our country on peeled a new entitlement program

of this sort. and republicans i think view this as their last chance. if this goes into effect tomorrow, then more significantly on january 1st, there will be no turning back. and the irony, of course, about this is that the republicans say that obama care's a disaster, it would destroy the country, it would ruin people's lives, and yet, they're afraid to let people try it, because i think deep down inside, they now that obama care actually would be a huge positive for 30 million americans, plus many, many more. >> you know, the reagan guys campaign heavily. congressman, you probably know this, campaigned for medicare in the '60s, talked about making social security voluntary. and yet, as the years passed, he began to be an almost disciple of those two programs, congressman. he didn't say a word against medicare and social security. he helped save social security with tip in '83. >> i read your chris and you documented it well and i was on the hill back then and ronald reagan was willing to compromise on taxes, as you mentioned, and on social security. and you know, he understood that

at the end of the day, we had to keep the enterprise running for the american people. >> thank you on two counts, the book and the truth. thank you, steve rattner and congressman gerry connelly. when we return, a hopeful political story for a very sobering time in american politics. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. i want peacocks. peacocks? walking the grounds. in tuscany. [ man ] her parents didn't expect her dreams to be so ambitious. italy? oh, that's not good. [ man ] by exploring their options, they learned that instead of going to italy,

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we finish tonight with a message i'll be delivering from early tomorrow morning right

through the evening. it turns out, it deals with how to follow the rules in politics. tomorrow, simon and shuster releases my book "tip and the gipper, when politics worked." it's a big book with a optimistic punch. it's a story about a liberal, my boss, tip o'neill, speaker of the house, and a conservative president, ronald reagan, and how they dealt with each other, including in the back room when no one was watching. it's a story of how two political heavyweights fought it out again gaend and again and somehow got the job done for america, found a space for compromise, found the common ground, found a way, each of them, actually, to use the other to get done what they needed to get done. it will make you smile. that's if, like me you more than anything want this country to succeed. and best of all, it's all true based on the diary of president reagan, the transcripts of the press conferences and the journal that i managed to keep during the entire and the most intense of the episodes. and it certainly was uplifting. i'll be on the "today" show tomorrow at 7:00/10:00