>> ew! >> was that not the one? >> no. that's not it. >> it's they're part of the new american center. >> what have you learned? >> you threw me off. >> nicole? >> that if the government doesn't totally collapse we'll have the senate women to thank. >> that's great. >> what have you learned? >> she may cry at the drop of the hat, nicole wallace, but republicans bring on the primaries and challenge the debate. >> if it's way too early, it's "morning joe." not sure exactly what happened here over the past three hours. >> i don't know. >> but i think it's going to happen again tomorrow. i'm really sorry. really sorry. that's just the way it is. stick around. chuck todd is next and boy, he's excited. the dodgers. see you tomorrow. what are you kids doing? center stage -- brand-new numbers this morning looking at a giant jump of the country, not on the right or the left all the time or half the time.

a special survey by nbc news and "esquire" magazine that maps out a very large america. it's called a new american center. meantime, left and right are trying to find the middle as harry reid and mitch mcconnell are edging closer to getting the senate to sign off on a deal to reopen the government and fund the government. but the fate in the house is uncertain. and ted cruz having a public private meeting with house leaders many the basement of a tex-mex restaurant. one of the colleagues is calling it the senate surrender caucus on the front page of "the new york times." going to be a long 48 hours, folks. good morning from new york. it's tuesday, object 15th, 2013. this is "the daily rundown." we have much more on the new american center throughout this special edition of "the daily rundown." but we have to begin with the latest on the shutdown. "first read" begins now. if you're rooting for an end to the fiscal standoff, we have a senate deal at least in

principle, kinda sorta. the bad news, no one is sure it can get through the republican-controlled house. last night harry reid and mitch mcconnell closed in on a plan that would raise the nation's borrowing limb, reopen e the government, but temporarily. the legislative egg heads, as some call them, have been up all night writing the legislation even as they're ironing out the final details. >> we've made tremendous progress. we are not there yet but tremendous progress. perhaps tomorrow will be a bright day. >> i think it's safe to say we've made substantial progress and we look forward to making more progress in the near future. >> clearly harry reid is an annie fan because the sun did come out this morning. it would fund the government through january 15th, that means through the holidays. good news for consumer confidence. frankly good news for everybody that works in washington who's sort of relieved that they can take the holiday they planned. it extend the borrowing limit on

faper through february 7th, but you can't plan on that number. this debt ceiling we're hitting about now, we thought we would hit it in may. this would give legislatures a december 13th deadline to hammer out a larger budget agreement, requiring a budget conference between the house and the senate to report out an agreement by that date. what's the likelihood of that happening? we'll see. this deal also gives agencies some flexibility to implement cuts from sequestration any way they would like to do it, possibly save pog tenial jobs. so democrats hope to renegotiate the spending levels in the larger deal and want to get rid of the sequester all together in the budget talks. the january 15th deadline comes before the second round of sequester effects coming into effect. current overall spending is set at $998 billion. the new cuts if they went into effect next year would take that number down to $967 billion. republicans have said changing spending caps is a nonstarter but overall republicans aren't getting much out of this deal

other than another bite at the apple down the road. a repeal or delay of a medical device tax, that's now off the table. the only health care provisions in this senate agreement is a one-year delay of what's called the reinsurance fee. it's a $63 fee that employers and unions pay, which is frankly traditionally passed on to you, the consumer. organized labor has been campaigning against that one heavily. this deal would also tighten income verification rules for the exchanges, which were originally in the law, then the obama administration waived that issue. lawmakers are still discussing a republican demand that would deny treasury secretary jack lew the use of the so-called extraordinary measures that extend's treasury's borrowing authority past when it hits the debt limit. so in this time they would like to prevent him from doing that for the february 7th date. that's something democrats have been against. we're guessing treasury and the white house would be against that as well. while the legislative egg heads are riding the law, the politicians are charged with selling it, and of course the toughest sales job will be to

house republicans. the house gop conference is meeting now as a group and i'm guessing they're venting as a group. it's clear house republicans don't like this deal. the question is how badly do they hate it? >> we believed that we could have worked with the president and then the president dropped us like a hot potato. then he wanted to deal with the senators. >> the problem with senate republicans is they always want to have a fight the next time. they want to wait until the next time. if they continue to pussyfoot around like they do in these battles they'll never be able to take back the senate. >> you heard that. that was kinder language. our friend at the national review, robert costa, is saying there's been some extra four-letter words already being used by some conservatives to describe the senate deal. the conference wreak breaks down into three groups in the house. several dozen lawmakers will be automatic noes. i think tim huelskamp falls into that category. he said "we have a name for it

in the house. it's called the senate surrender caucus. anybody who would vote for that in the house as republican would virtually guarantee a primary challenger." then there are about 60 to 80 republicans who would vote with john boehner on anything he asked them to do. the question is where will the guys in the middle go? there are lawmakers more willing to say on background or off the record they're with boehner, they don't like the tea party, but they publicly embrace the tea party because they're nervous about the tea party and primary challenge. frankly they often vote against boehner on tough votes in the end to vote with the tea party. where do they fall? boehner and mcconnell met for about 25 minutes yesterday. tom cole tells "the washington post," mcconnell i don't think will deliberately put us in a bad position. if you're able to get some savings out of the entitlement portion of the budget, those are republican victories."

not insignificant that cole is trying to declare victory. one thing that could help baner is if the senate republican leader mitch mcconnell could deliver 25 republicans votes in the senate, more than half his conference. 40 republicans voted for the fiscal cliff deal, five of those no longer in the senate. that's your ceiling. there's 35 senate republicans who have voted with mitch mcconnell before. would they vote with him again on a giant deal that gets us out of a cliff mess? can they get anywhere close to the number? mcconnell, who spoke to the president yesterday and reid, are now both racing the clock to sell the plan to lawmakers before the u.s. borrowing authority runs out this weekend. the calendar is, of course, is enemy here. they may not be able to pass this bill because of procedural issues for a few days. a single senator can use procedural tactics to push the final vote past the october 17th deadline. and yesterday ted cruz deflected questions about whether he plans to try to delay a vote, saying we need to see what the details are. roll call reports cruz met with 15 to 20 house republicans to plot strategy for around two

hours late last night. they did so in the basement of a capitol hill tex-mex restaurant. of course the shutdown is exhibit a for washington polarization. while we often say d.c. reflects the rest of country, a new survey by nbc news and "esquire" magazine shows that's not the case. not only is the country more purple than you may have thought, the middle is a heck of a lot bigger than you you've been led to believe. according to our survey, more than half of americans are in the political center. just 21% represent the hard left and 28% represent the hard right. i'll go into more detail here. the center itself of course is not one giant block itself, okay? it is -- there is sort of a spectrum of centrists if you will, but the spectrum is larger than that. we identified eight different groups to let you know. so here's the hard left base here. these people voted almost 99-1 for president obama. here's the hard right. they voted about 93-7 for

romney. this center here, president obama won with 56% of the vote. but this is your center. so i want to go into a little more detail here. here's your left as i was telling you about. we had a little fun here saying what it represents. you had your bleeding hearts. that's your lisa simpson type of democrat. you have your gospel left. think the tyler perry. these are religious, culturally conservative but very democrat. then you look at the right. you have your evangelical right. you get the picture where we're going here. then the talk radio heads we call them. some could describe this as the tea party caucus. but it's the very upset, angry conservatives if you will. all right. let's look at the center. it's four different disparate groups of the center, and we put them essentially where they fall on the spectrum here. the most middle of the road is here. somewhat left leaning are these minivan moderates. and, you know, i'll get to turtle here and the whatever man

in a second. but quickly, to run through, we have our little claire dumfy from "modern family," don draper, duck dynasty from the richardson family, but clearly the main dude there, our pickup truck guys. most of this group is women. still a third of them that are men. these are highly educated, pretty affluent, more than a third have children at home. these folks are pro gay marriage, they're pro-choice, but they're also pro groun control. they want lelsz government, though, and they're very much in favor of a balanced budget amendment. that's why you can't put them all the way to the left. our nba middle. these were businessmen republicans a generation ago. they split exactly down the middle between obama and romney, 49-49. so they were totally even split. mostly white, mostly male, mostly over 50. highly educated group, high

earners, income earners, most making over $75,000 a year. and the big difference, big disparity is between the social and financial ideologies, and that's there. and 86% want more individual accountability. this is very much a personal responsibility, pick yourself up off the bootstraps kind of thing. then your pickup truck populace. we told you for a long time, culturally conservative, the old reagan democrats, probably another way to put it. predominantly white working class. 80% of them not graduated from college, blue-collar type folks, live in the rural south and the midwest, very pessimistic about the economy. this is the anti-washington and anti-wall street group that sits in the middle here. almost half of them say d.c. doesn't represent their values. and 64% said government should be doing more. this is a big difference. yes, culturally conservative, but they want government involved to sort of help create a level playing field if you remember some of those talking points in the 2012 campaign.

then there's our turtle group. we call them the whatever man. and we'll explain to you in a minute. these are mostly white, 1 in 3 are single. 75% of them are under the age of 50. big social media users but not to talk politics. they're not very politically engaged. 28% say politics doesn't affect their life at all. many of them have no opinion on major issues but they really did split down the middle, those that voted, split somewhat down the middle. so that's our journey to the center of the political universe. as you see, this is a very large -- it is diverse even in the middle but there is some commonality to them. up next, the obama and romney pollster who is do this groundbreaking survey. they'll talk about it and the fact that americans don't easily fit into the red and blue columns anymore. our survey hopes to shake up the conventional wisdom act the gay marriage, death penalty issues. how does this change the way

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so our new nbc news/esquire survey shows it's time perhaps to rethink some political definitions, specifically those we've come to think of as, quote, unquote, liberal or conservative. we've seen a shift on gay marriage. once seen as liberal, now most

say same-sex couples should be allowed to get married like anybody else. balanced budget amendment only embraced by kefbs for years. half of the political center supports that, too. full results of the new survey are in the newest issue of "esquire." right now we'll do a little deeper dive with three of the men that made it happen. robert blizzard was pollster for mitt romney's campaign and is a partner of public opinion strategy. he and neil newhouse represented the romney wing of our survey team. tim pen netson, president and ceo of a strategy group. obviously he represented the obama team in designing this survey. richard dorman the senior editor with "esquire" magazine. richard, give you guys credit. you had this idea, came to us thinking that maybe we agreed it was a good idea and i think this is already paying bigger dividends than we expected. the biggest surprise to you, before i get into -- we explain

who had the groups were. we'll talk about what they stand for. big picture, what was the bigst surprise to you? >> i think you touched on it briefly in your introduction, which is the sense that for decades we thought of things like abortion rights, raising the minimum wage, it will social security net as liberal policy, just as we thought of people being wary of government spending and government regulation, people being for voter i.d. laws and domestic drilling, conservative issues. those are not liberal and conservative issues right now. they are centrist positions. i hit the it should redefine the way we not only think about the issues but the way we talk about them. >> talk a little bit about this. joel, i want to start with you because during the campaign you were actually one of these folks behind the scenes to us and reporters saying, hey, stop saying this is all about turning on our base. we are targeting swing voters. you guys did your own version of this. explain. >> well, we always concentrated on taking a deeper dive and looking at people who didn't

fall into conventional boxes, as richard was just talking about. and while, you know, there were people who were very loyal democrats and republicans we've known for years through our political work there is a moderate majority in most places in america. and so we took a lot of time during the campaign, looking at their economic lives, their values, and understanding the things that are really important to them about their future. >> robert, when you looked at this survey, was the center bigger than you thought it would be at the end of the day? >> yeah, i think so, chuck. i think the key here is that for the most part you look at independent voters as being really the kind of swing group across the country that had been for years and years. as you mentioned earlier, we had always at the romney campaign talked about we win independents we'll do really well. i think the center of the country is bigger than independents and independents can no longer be looked at as this kind of homogeneous group across the board. they're a moderate center that's really the majority of the country. >> we put a breakdown of it.

what's interesting here, richard, is there are people in the center that believe they're wearing a blue jersey or wearing a red jersey. a lott identify as independents but it wasn't as large of a group. i think what's interesting here is there are people who thought they were liberal or conservative but actually their positions fall in the middle. maybe just their values and their gut instinct is they're on one team or the other. >> that's right. one of the driving forces behind this little study of ours is to try to figure out what affiliations like liberal and conservative mean at a time when 21st century politics are moving the ground beneath our feet. you've got jeb bush saying he's not sure where his father, ronald reagan, would fit in in the republican party. you have the left dinging on everything to syria. lifetime issues and people thinking about debt and gay marriage and the middle east. those things are changing how we think about ourselves. >> let's go through some of

these issues. guns and god, a group that doesn't own a lot of guns. only 34% in the senate have guns, 45% want background checks. joel, this isn't a very religious group. there is a large religious population on the left, mostly african-american, large religious base on the right, mostly evangelicals. but 60% of the center. if there is a bright line here, it was, hey, i may have my faith but i don't want to hear you talk about it, politician. >> right. in fact, very strongly they say they do not believe, they disagree strongly with the notion that religion and churches should play a bigger role in politics, which is by the way completely at odds with tea party studies that have been done who are comprised of people who strongly believe there should be more religion in politics. so there's a political disconnect there between the center and the other emerging movement on the right, the tea party. >> and yet both parties spend so much time campaigning in churches. i mean, let's think about it, right? democrats spend a lot of time on

sundays at black churches. republicans spend a lot of time on sunday in megachurches, yet the vast majority of the country, you're not talking to them. >> you're not, but you are talking to a community center for a lot of people and where people come together. >> robert, i thought what was interesting about this group, they are skeptical of government but they're pro safety net. let me show some things in here. strongly support, nearly half strongly support raising the minimum wage. throw in the slightly support and the majority want to see the minimum wage raised. majority believe in medicaid, welfare, food stamps. 73% believe in equal pay or equal group. this same group they want to get rid of affirmative action at colleges and universities. >> i think throughout the center, and i think this is an interesting finding through the survey, i don't know if you'll get to it in a second, when you looked at other issue, affirmative action, you looked at illegal immigration, for example, the senate has this fairness, this e equality kind of vein running through where

they're looking inward and looking at their families paying for -- are they going to be able to drive to their kid's soccer game and pay for the gas or pay for a birthday present. the economic pessimism that goes through is making the center of the country kind of isolated and they're really concerned about fairness and equality across the board. >> richard, it seems to me the polarization that's taken place in this country is the polarization of the washington electeds and the rest of the country. that's what the polarization is. the other america has no connection to washington. >> i think it's a fun house mirror situation in washington right now. it is not a reflection of what americans value and think and believe. >> joel, very quickly, this fairness threat, meritocracy is the word. how is it you can have somebody who believes we don't need affirmative action, let's drill for more oil but put a balanced budget amendment in. is it enough of a threat to create a third movement in american politics? >> well, i think as long as they

feel they can find a home in one party or the other. i don't think there will be a third movement. i think what will happen is folks in either party who are playing the red/blue game will realize these folks -- they won't let it happen. >> you won't let them make it happen. robert's not going to let them make it happen. >> no. that's right. >> they believe in individual responsibility and shared responsibility. >> and robert, very quickly, throughout this survey, i'm sure you're sitting there going, well, now i know why the president was using that language so much and borrowing the teddy roosevelt language. is that right? >> yeah. no. i think that's a fair point. i definitely do. >> all right. richard, joel, robert, this was something. we hope to make an annual or maybe a biannual survey and study trying to take this in a way that reminds america saying yes, we in the media divide you into red and blue but maybe we're not as dense as washington. go to nbcnews.com for more.

we have david axelrod and mike murphy who looked at the data and wrote sort of their playbook and blueprint to decide how would they use this data to win elections. by the way, are you part of the new american center? go to our facebook page and find out. we have a great quiz designed by our two campaign pollsters here. we've posted a link to the interactive survey so you can see where you fit. are you lisa simpson? don draper? i assume you're not turtle. tweet us at daily rundown. join the conversation a at #whereistand. coming up, two centrists, mark prior, joins us with the latest on the debt deal being cut in the senate and what's in and what's out, will anything make it to the president's desk, then charlie depp, we hope, if he gets out of the house republican meeting. today's trivia question.

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that's what they can do with you. ameriprise financial. more within reach. well, as we've been telling you, we're not a nation of liberal and conservative ideologues but the majority of the country falls in between, a country of pragmatists. the question is, is there any legislative center on capitol hill that represents this somewhat silent majority? turns out there are a few moderates left. senator mark prior is one of the few senate true moderates according to the "national journal." west virginia senator joe manchin and former nebraska senator ben nelson were the two others. vote rating was 52.3% liberal, 27.7 conservative. senator prior joins me now. he's a member of the appropriations committee. senator prior, good morning to you, sir. >> thank you. thank you for having me. >> i want to start with this senate deal.

i know you've been involved with working with senator collins from maine. there's a group of you of senate democrats. i think now it's 12. they're sort of some moderate senate republicans, the moderate senate democrats trying to force this deal. is it basically done in prince. ? i've equated it to sort of when you're buying a car. have you agreed to the price tag and now you're working on the details and doing the credit check? >> you know, that's for the leaders to decide. my sense is that it is pretty much done. of course it's a white house and house and senate leadership thing. so i'm not in those discussions. but by the way, i'm in the susan collins fan club. she did a great job of pulling us together. and i was very appreciative that she reached out to me because that's the not the first time my phone has rung from a republican to say, hey, help us on this bipartisan effort, because that really is one of the roles i play in the senate is to try to bring people together, be a bridge builder.

just like your previous segment said, chuck, i think people are sick and tired of the partisanship and the gridlock and what i call dead-end politics. >> right. >> that's all dead-end stuff. look where we are today because of that. we have a small group in the house that is kind of driving the train over there and you see what happened, but go back to your question. i think that this -- it sounds to me like, and i may be wrong, one or two details to work out, maybe some drafting but it sounds like it pretty much is a done deal. the good news is we came together in a bipartisan way. there was 13 of us, six democrats, six republicans, one independent. we put something together and presented it to the two leaders. i think that's when the conversation got going between them. >> i've always heard a rumor there was an unwritten rule in the senate that a member of the opposite party 'cause not allowed to help somebody who was in a political campaign cycle, that -- so in this instance that a republican wasn't allowed to work with you on a piece of legislation because you're in

sishg l and vice versa, a democrat would be frowned upon by leadership with helping a republican, co-sponsoring a deal with a republican. is that really an unwritten rule in the u.s. senate? >> it's not a rule. it does happen sometimes. i picked up on a little bit of that, but the truth is i have many more republican i want to work with because i worked with them. last cycle, i had a bill with scott brown. and i got a little pushback from some of my fellow democrats, you can't help him. i said, look, we're trying to pass legislation here. this is about governing. one of the problems you see in washington, it's all politics all the time. in fact, if you listen to the press conferences around here when they talk about this deal, they say who wins and who loses. let's throw that stuff out the window and look at what's best for the country. let's do that. >> why is president obama so unpopular in arkansas? arkansas is a state that has dramatically shifted it seems in its partisan views in the last 20 years. what's your take on it? >> i would say arkansas has always been a fairly

conservative state but a democratic state, as you know, and it does not fit the national paradigm. i think that barack obama really probably got off on the wrong foot in the democratic primary when he ran against hillary clinton. >> you think that's it? simply the loyalty to the clintons is a big, chunk of this? >> i think that was really the starting point. and he never really has never been able to and never really tried to establish himself with arkansas democrats. i do think that's hurt him there. look, we have to be honest. if you look at president obama's tenure, he comes in to office in one of the most difficult situations you can imagine. he has two wars going on, literally the economy is on the verge of a collapse. and he had to do a lot of things and make a lot of decisions that were tough, hard decisions in a lot of ways, maybe like harry truman. he was unpopular all the way through. i think obama's been in the same situation. >> everybody wants david mccauliff to write that

biography. very quickly, health care will be a big part of tom cotton's campaign against you. would you be in favor of a one-year delay in the individual mandate? >> i'm not in fave of that. i think if you look at what arkansas did, we have a democratic governor, republican legislature. they came together in a bipartisan way to do the medicaid expansion in our state using private insurance. they call it the private option. >> what do you say to the fairness argument, that big business gets a delay but individuals don't? >> in my state we're about to have maybe as many as 500,000 people e either through the exchanges or through the medicaid expansion, and by the way that's one-sixth of our state population. one out of six people could have private insurance come january. >> senator mark pryor, democrat from arkansas son of a former senator. like to remind people of that. thanks for coming on. >> anytime. thanks, todd. >> deal nearly done in the senate, you heard it. will house republicans go along?

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so we can all produce energy more safely. our commitment has never been stronger. a republican who told us last week he thought the house could pass a clean spending bill is now indicating his support for the senate deal that could end the shutdown, at least temporarily. joined by charlie dent. he's from one of the few swing districts that there are in the country in pennsylvania. he is one of six lawmakers out of 535 who "national journal" labeled as being at the center of congress these days based on their vote ratings in 2012. so we wanted to highlight one from each side there. congressman dent, let's start with the quick news of the morning. you were just in this meeting of the house republican conference. what can you tell me? what was the reaction to the senate deal? >> well, first, let me say i had to leave during the presentation, but the speaker had said this, that the house is

likely to launch its own initiative as early as today that would do a few things. essentially use i believe the same time frames for the cr and the debt limit as in the senate negotiations. i believe that would be january 15th for the cr and february 7th or 8th for the debt limit. it would strike the the reinsurance tax, that $63 per head tax for the large self-insureds and the large unions. that would be out and replaced with a two-year delay of the medical device tax plus a variation or derivative of the bitter language minus the congressional staff that would affect the congress and i think the white house and white house staff. that's essentially the outline that was laid out by the speaker. i may have forgotten one or two things but that's essentially what was laid out. then i ran over to be with you. >> i appreciate that. the important nuggets here are, one, there's agreement on the spending caps as far as january 15th, there's an agreement on raising the debt limit. the two changes then, what the house is going to do, is instead

of the reinsurance fee, a two-year delay. that was the original. that was like the second version of the collins proposal, two-year delay on that so-called medical device tax, pacemaker tax. and then the second thing you talk about is the language about whether members of congress and their staffs should fall under the exchanges, which you said the difference here is only members of congress, not the staff. >> correct. and the white house would fall in, too. so it would be congress and the white house and i guess white house staff but not congressional staff. i'm saying that's from my quick memory. i didn't write this down, but that's my understanding. >> okay. and, look, we've heard from some of the conservatives in your conversation, not happy about any of this deal. but you tell me the fact that house leadership is proposing a deal that looks very similar to the average american the difference between a delay in the medical tax and this reinsurance fee seems like nothing. does this tell you this deal is going to happen, it just depends

now on how to procedurally move it through? >> yes. i believe -- look, if the house decides to send over this bill today and the senate launches, then i think there should be -- it shouldn't be very difficult to reconcile the differences between the two positions. personally, i prefer the medical device tax repeal or delay. that's my preference. but, look, i'm not going to -- i understand very clearly that we have to run this government, we have to fund it, get it reopened, and meet our obligations and not default. that's what's driving this. the other issues i think will work themselves out, but i believe there is a basic outline for a compromise. >> why should we -- i mean, here's sort of the -- not to belabor this point, but congratulations. you guys are funding the government for a whole 90 days. now what? why am i not going to be back here with you on january 14th talking about, well, how are we going to avert this next shutdown? >> i hope that some lessons were learned. i really do. and i hope that the people who are, you know, more interested in shutting down the government understand we have very basic

responsibilities. and between now and whenever that next deadline is or the next alarm clock goes off we're going to have to deal with a broader fiscal reform, and that means people are going to have to be very serious. we're not asking anybody to check their ideologies at the door. we're asking people to be a problem solver and be pragmatic and get the job done. none of these agreements have everything i like in them, but at the end of the day, people have to have a capacity to vote yes or get to yes. that's what's sorely lacking on both sides of the aisle in washington, d.c., these days. >> that's for sure. something we learned in spades from our new survey of where people actually fall on the political spectrum. charlie dent, republican from pennsylvania, thanks for news this morning that you just delivered to us. >> thank you. >> you're a "the daily rundown" reporter. you didn't realize that. you heard it here, folks. the deal is in the works. the house will send over a similar version just with their own tweaks on the addendums to this. much more ahead. big news on our website.

our new website is coming soon. starting this afternoon. you get a sneak peek at what is going to be a preview of the new msnbc.com. itis going to be very pretty. lots of good pictures. don't forget to enter the tdr good morning challenge. look for more details of that on our new website. first, government still shut down so the soup of the day is the same. it's turkey chili. we have found out they do use new turkey every day. humans. even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

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live pictures here of capitol hill. we're going to expect to be hearing any minute now from republican leaders after their closed door meeting, but you already know the offer that they're about to present. charlie dent, house republican from pennsylvania, already told us the details already on our air before anybody else so let's bring our tuesday gaggle, dante

chinni, ben white and amy walter. amy and dante, i want to get a little quick news out of the way. ben, we know what we're about to hear from boehner officially, what this deal is. essentially the house is agreeing to the framework of the senate deal. their two health care addendums are different. this medical device tax suspension, not a full repeal, and the vitter amendment, sort of the congress should be treated the same into the exchanges but not the staff anymore, relief to a lot of low-paid staff people. we know how this is going to end. how's it going to end? >> it's going to end with the medical device tax coming out. there's plenty of support in the senate. >> that will be included in the new deal. >> and vitter is probably gone. >> ultimately members of congress don't really want that. they want to say that they opposed special deals for members of congress and staff,

medical device tax, senate doesn't want it, nobody wants it. put it back later, find revenue elsewhere and that's the final deal that will get us past this. >> that's how normal negotiations would happen. amy walter, assuming that's the way it falls, what the house votes, you'll have a bunch of republican that say will vote for the initial deal. when vitter is struck out of the final deal with the senate and it comes back for a vote in the house, a lot of those guys won't vote for it but it gives boehner just enough cover to still bring it to the floor. does that make sense? >> that makes a whole lot of sense. look, what i've been surprised at from the very beginning, chuck, is how hard it's been for republicans to accept victory. whether it was back in 2011 -- >> i don't think any of them feel like they're winning anything right now, amy. >> i know, but they had a victory at the very beginning here when they could have said, look, we've already won on sequester. we've already won on cuts to government spending, which was a

big part of the reason many of them came here. when they tried to push their advantage on to obama care it exploded and now they can't go back and say, oh, by the way, we won on budget cuts because they never started from that. >> no. dante, i want to come back to our poll with "esquire." of course we have you on because you are the godfather of patch work nation where you have the country divided into 12 categories or counties divided into 12 categories. we shrunk it down a little bit to the eight. when you looked at our data and you look at your data and you sort of overlay it, what made sense to you and what sort of surprised you? >> well, the things that made sense to me were this middle that we're talking about here. i've seen a lot of these people, i've interviewed a lot of these people when i've gone around the country. and to me from the trips i've taken around the country, they live primarily in suburban and exurban locations. i've moved on and rebuilt the

entire thing at the american communities project, but it's the same general concept. and i think -- where i see these voters is i see them in these urban suburb ban areas, middle suburbs and the exurbs. these numbers fit very closely with what i see in the election results. right now, look, these are voters republicans have to win again. so what we've described here today, it's moderate and it's the middle, but on cultural issues, it's what a lot of people consider to be or the parties consider to be liberal or more liberal points of view. they'll have to incorporate some of these things to win some of these voters back. >> ben, your constituent is the mba middle. these are the guys that work in finance. they may be stock brokers, insurance salesman but also may work on wall street. what's amazing is they are divided right down the middle. 25 years ago these are republicans and they have moved because on social -- what we saw is they moved on social issues. they're still just as fiscally skeptical of government as they

have ever been, but it's almost as if on social issues they're like enough of this already and that's what has moved them away from the gop. >> it has. i think the fiscal issues will move them away a little bit when you look at shutting down the government, threatening debt limit default. republicans are losing sort of all of those chamber of commerce type republicans who like tax cuts, they don't like deficits. in theory they like all of the spending cuts but they don't want to flirt with debt default, they don't want to shut down the government for a long period of time in a way that's hurt the economy. it's already hurting the economy. it's not just wall street, it's main street chamber of commerce types who see in this republican party and the most conservative base of it a party they don't really recognize now. >> what's also interesting here, amy, is the pickup populous and they strike me as interesting because they were reagan democrats, they came back to the democratic party under bill clinton. they have left it under barack obama. but they're still up for grabs. >> well, these are the real tea party, right, and the

libertarians. >> they're a little tea party but they want a little government. >> that's right. and you can see folks like rand paul appealing to them on some of those issues. what kind of government they want and who they want in charge of that government is the real issue. it's the color of the jersey that's often determinative of whether they're going to listen to that person. >> shameless plugs. amy, you first in chicago. >> i am going to put a shameless plug in for chicago. you guys, i've been here for three weeks. it's been in the 70s the whole time. i thought winter was supposed to descend on the windy city by now. >> and your hair is not wooichbd blown. how about that. dante, plug your new study. >> two things i want to plug. one is i want to plug we just looked at stock ownership and where it is in the country with these different types and what that means for republican. there are some real concerns there. the other thing, just a quick plug, alcs game three in detroit, justin verlander on the mound. >> ben. >> i'm going to plug all my political colleagues on the hill, everybody kicking butt up

there. >> after luke and casey, of course. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." i'll see you all day talking more about our new american center. bye-bye. your business travel forecast on this tuesday, the middle of the country once again dealing with a huge storm heading up through the northern plains. rain and thunderstorms this morning. st. louis to chicago and eventually moving right through illinois into indiana. then later this afternoon it looks like heavier rain and storms developing from san antonio to houston, austin and even dallas. some of that will move into arkansas a little later today.

(knochello? hey, i notice your car is not in the driveway. yeah. it's in the shop. it's going to cost me an arm and a leg. that's hilarious. sorry. you shoulda taken it to midas. get some of that midas touch. they tell you what stuff needs fixing, and what stuff can wait. next time i'm going to midas. high-five! arg! i did not see that coming. trust the midas touch. for brakes, tires, oil, everything. (whistling) the pain started up and wrapped around to the front. i couldn't play my bassoon because of the pressure that i felt throughout my whole head.

the blistering and the rash was moving down towards my eye. the doctors at the emergency room recommended that i have it checked out by an eye doctor. there was concern about my eyesight. when i had shingles the music stopped. have hail damage to both their cars. ted ted is trying to get a hold of his insurance agent. maxwell is not. he's on geico.com setting up an appointment with an adjuster. ted is now on hold with his insurance company. maxwell is not and just confirmed a 5:30 time for tuesday. ted, is still waiting. yes! maxwell is out and about...