jansing. senators are working to stave off a default. among house republicans and another embarrassment for speaker john boehner. it's now day 16. there we are, a picture of capitol hill. the government shutdown is possible. they're looking at that deadline. it is default eve, but there are some optimism the senate could come to the rescue. in fact when minority leader mitch mcconnell arrived at the capitol this morning, he said we are getting there and even had a spring in his step. here's what a group of female senators working together said. >> for the first question let's just do a show of hands. are you confident that woe will get a deal in time for this deadline? >> yes. we have to. >> unanimous three of three. the senate deal would lift the debt limit throughs february 7th, it would fund the government until january 15th and it would also ask lawmakers to come together on a budget before christmas. and one tea party congressman thinks it will pass in the

house. >> harry reid and mitch mcconnell are going to work out a deal today and it's going to come to the house. >> what's going to happen? >> more than likely it will pass. a lot of democrats vote for it and you might get a few republicans to vote for it, but i don't think you'll see a wide swath of our conservative caucus vote for what comes over from the senate. >> meanwhile a dire warning from one of the top credit agencies. fitch ratings placing a negative ratings watch on the aaa status. they say congress is putting the full faith and credit at risk of the country. i want to bring in molly ball and joe conason, editor and chief of national memo. a lot of stuff happened here this morning, but at the same time here, molly, we are kind of back to almost the same exact point we were at this hour yesterday. the senate working on a deal and you heard sean duffy there just a second ago. will they work something out on that vote? and will john boehner put it on the floor and get it passed

should he bring it to the floor with mostly democratic votes here? >> well, i don't think there's much question that if it came to the floor, particularly with boehner's support, that a bill would pass. if it was a deal that had been agreed to by the democratic and republican leaders in the senate and it was something that democrats could support and then it would only take a couple of dozen republicans and there are at least that many republicans who are loyal enough to boehner who would vote for it. so the question is whether boehner will bring it to the floor. we're starting to see reports that he does plan to do that. the sort of generous explanation for the madness we went through yesterday, which did seem kind of pointless, it did seem like 24 hours we came back to where we started, the generous explanation is that boehner needed to demonstrate that that sort of plan z, his last option, was not going to work. that nothing that the house could come up with on its own was going to get through and, therefore, he was going to have no choice but to go this route. >> and for you, molly and joe, we're just hearing from our frank thorpe on capitol hill

that although the situation is quite fluid, as all three of us understand more and that things could change, they're hearing that any senate bill would go to the house first so that they could avoid one procedural step. of course that could change. we're just getting that word. joe, let's go back to the house republican implosion yesterday. here's what congressman elijah cummings said. >> we have sadly, and it pains me to say that, sadly a republican party at war with itself and it basically has suspended government, it's suspended our democracy, it's suspended almost any kind of order. >> just to give you a review of what happened yesterday, it started around 11:00 a.m. john boehner coming out and announcing he's got his own plan to open the government and avoid default. then late last night or late night, rather, it turns out he can't get the votes. the tea party conservatives didn't think the deal had enough in it. heritage action opposing the plan and so did moderates. a great line from jake sherman

in politico we were reading this morning. boehner, can tor, mccarthy face an ongoing dilemma. the house gop conference is like a balloon. squeeze it in one place and a problem pops out somewhere else. so, joe, looking at this balloon, what does boehner do right now with it? >> he's going to -- it's going to pop in his face. i mean he has to give up on this now, and i think he knows it. your reporters are saying so. this is the end. and it's the end that could have ended a while ago with a vote of the full house. we have been kidnapped, the entire world, boyy a speaker, a very undistinguished politician that cannot lead his caucus in the house to try to preserve himself at the expense of democracy and this has made the world laugh at us. we have the most dysfunctional kind of system where 30 people in the house, because of the speaker, can stop, you know, the world from going on. that is not a very good example to the world. it lowers the prestige of the country and puts everybody in

grave danger. >> yes, as we look at the opinion pieces that are coming out from various publications around the world, they are commenting on this. here's lisa murkowski's read on what's happening from the "today" show. >> this should not be about someone's speakership. this should not be about the next election. this should be about really the future of our country. >> so, molly, you heard joe. might boehner lose his speakership over this? and should it matter or in this case should he put the country before politics, as has been said? >> well, somebody has to lead the house republicans. somebody has to be the speaker, no matter what. and it's hard to envision anybody doing it effectively, considering, you know, what congressman cummings said earlier, that the republican party is at war with itself. you do have these warring tribes with mutually irreconcilable goals. they are the majority in the house but aren't a cohesive majority. so whether it's john boehner or somebody else, it's just not

going to be possible to get them all on the same page in a consistent manner, i don't think. >> we've got that deadline, joe, 14 hours is what has been put out there so far. there's debate, right, still as to whether we will go over and we will default on that which we owe and must pay. a pew poll finds 69% of tea partiers do not think there will be any major consequences if we do go past the debt ceiling deadline tonight. steve king said it again this morning. >> i'm not worried this this thing that they term default because we are going to service our debt. we're going to pay the interest first and we'll roll the principal over. >> a lot of folks going here, joe, really? do they believe that? 69%? >> in national memo we call them the debt truthers, which has become a popular term for people like steve king who you have to remember also believed that the president was not born in the united states. they believe a lot of things that are patently untrue. and the idea that people who believe almost anything are in

charge. >> 69% here. >> yes, are in charge of the future of the united states is quite astonishing. and that boehner would let them do that, because he knows better. he knows better. so to bring us up to default under the pretense of having to show he can lead his caucus could lead to a tragedy. >> joe, molly, stand by. i want to bring in congressman steve israel, democrat from new york and head of the democratic national campaign committee. a lot happening on the hill and a good morning to you, congressman. i want to show a little bit of sound for our viewers. the president during an interview with a local station here in new york yesterday. let's take a listen. >> the problem that we've got is, is that for speaker boehner, for example, him negotiating with me isn't necessarily good for the extreme faction in his caucus, it weakens him. so there have been repeated situations where we have agreements and he goes back and it turns out that he can't control his caucus. so the challenge here is can you

deliver on agreements that are made. >> congressman, you've met with him and a group of house democrats. that happened yesterday. what's your sense there? what did he say and what was his tone? >> well, his tone was that we need to get this done, that the tea party faction of the republican caucus has done enough damage to the middle class, enough damage to our economy, enough damage to people's 401(k)s and we need to get adults in the room in order to get this solved. and i hope that we are here. let me just say one other thing in terms of how we got here and how we get out of it. look, richard, this is about a group of people who came to congress of a tea party echo chamber, for a tea party echo chamber, from a tea party echo chamber, and they define their universe by tweeting something crazy and counting the number of retweets they get. that is why we are in the condition we are in. we need to solve this today and then get to the important issues of sensible, long-term reduction

of debt that's balanced, something that's fair to the middle class, protecting medicare and creating jobs. on those battles we win. >> congressman, does speaker boehner ignore that echo chamber if the senate reaches a deal today? do you think he will bring it to the house floor, braeng the hastert rule and allow it to pass with democratic votes? >> he's going to have to assess whether the personal political damage that he may incur is worth the global damage that the united states incurs by inaction. i don't see how he has any choice. i hope yesterday was the last dying gasps of a desperate tea party attempt and that today we can get this done. i just came from a meeting of the democratic leadership. the democratic caucus will provide the votes necessary on the senate bill as it has been explained to us. so there are going to be two adults in the room. one, the senate that is working on a common sense solution and,

two, house democrats who will provide the votes to reopen the government and avoid default. >> does boehner lose his speakership? i was just talking with molly and john about that. >> i'm less concerned about john boehner losing his speakership than i am losing our credit worthiness, than i am losing jobs, than i am an economy that loses its recovery. that's what we should be focused on and not the internal partisan politics of the republican caucus. >> will it pass? do you see this happening? >> as i said, richard, we will, as democrats, we will provide the votes necessary to reopen the government and to avoid default. i just walked over here to join you from that meeting in the capitol. there were a group of furloughed federal workers. one said it's a beautiful day to reopen the government. and i said last month was a beautiful day to reopen this government. this is the last day. we've run out of time. it's time to get it done. democrats will get it done. >> congressman, we're hoping for that. steve israel, thank you for your

time today. >> thank you. >> we'll go to joe here. so, joe, what did you think of congressman israel's confidence that this will pass? he's saying deliver 200 democratic votes and that he does not that speaker boehner will also be able to bring around about two dozen votes with him and take it to the floor? >> well, i think if you look at polling data now, there's certainly enough marginal districts where republicans would be punished severely for not supporting this on the floor of the house right now. plenty. you need 17, you have more than that. tea party members admit that. there are more than enough votes in the house as a whole to pass a bill now. and boehner has to decide, first of all, how he wants to be remembered as speaker. >> what about ted cruz, though? >> what about him? ted cruz is plotting against speaker boehner, plotting to try to stop this. but ted cruz is in trouble in the senate with his own fellow republicans at this point. i mean i'm not sure that there are more than 20 members of the house who will listen to ted cruz. the problem is john boehner up

until this point has been listening to those 20 rather than even his own full caucus. >> molly, i want to get this from you. how do you see the next 24 hours playing out? what can we expect? >> well, as you mentioned before, there is some debate over whether this bill, once the deal is finalized, whether it goes to the house first or the senate first and for procedural reasons it may go to the house first in order to expedite it. we are in a time crunch and the procedural rules are so complicated, i tend to think that clever legislators can always find ways around whatever procedural roadblocks there are. but, you know, the clock is ticking down, the politicians are very aware of that. they need to nail down the details of this deal and then they need to whisk it through both houses if we are going to avoid hitting that debt ceiling dead loline deadline. >> their staffs are working 24 hours a day trying to get something done. appreciate your time, joe conason, molly ball, appreciate

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we've seen speaker john boehner and senator majority leader harry reid at the microphones after meetings with the president but what are they talking about behind closed doors at the white house and how is the president and his staff handling the crisis in the west wing now? bill burton is a former white house deputy press secretary. he served during president obama's first term and is the co-founder of priorities usa action. bill, thanks for being here with us today. what's going on right now in the white house? >> thanks for having me. i think at the white house what you have are serious adults trying to get through this

crisis, get the government back open, get the debt ceiling raised and move on -- move forward with some of the key priorities that need to happen in this country. >> is there a lot of talking going back and forth with congressional leaders? >> yeah, i'm sure. you know, the president has done his part talking to leaders in both parties. you saw the members of the house democrats who were over there yesterday. i'm sure dennis mcdonough and rob neighbors and the whole legislative team are cleaning close tabs on everything that's happening on capitol hill and actively negotiating. but the president isn't out there being very forceful in his message. as he said in that clip that you showed earlier, sometimes it's not as helpful to have the president pushing things forward in front of cameras. sometimes it's helpful for the work to be done behind the scenes to make sure that we make the progress that we need to make. >> some are saying that he's taken a back seat really here in the process. what's your view? >> i think that that is -- that notion is belied by the facts which show that the president has actually been quite active.

he's worked behind the scenes, he's worked in front of the scenes, he's calling leaders, he's trying to do everything that he can to make this work. and it looks like there's enough progress that we are indeed going to be able to get the government open and get the debt ceiling raised. >> 14 hours to go according to their deadline. republicans hitting the president in the past couple of weeks on his leadership style leading up until today. take a listen. >> i mean it's unbelievable. this is the first time in history that a president of the united states has said, look, i'm not even going to talk about it. >> i don't see why the president is not accepting that, why he's not working with us. i think it's been very difficult to work with him. >> so why is the president -- you sort of answered it earlier on why the president is not taking here a tougher tone necessarily vocally but behind the scenes it seems like all the democrats are lining up. the president here getting some criticism about that approach. >> well, look, the republicans have a very serious political problem. what looked like a very secure house of representative majority

that they had is now threatened by the actions of ted cruz and a band of republicans who are making this insanity the mainstream in the republican party, forcing john boehner into a place where the government shutdown, we're threatening the full faith and credit of the united states government and so you're going to see people like republican senator rob portman there and raul labrador and others all make these same political points, trying to claw their way out of what has been very serious damage done to the republican brand and done to the security that they once had in maintaining their majority. >> you know, bill, at this time yesterday we were just saying at the top of the show that we were basically in the same place, looking at the senate trying to cobble together a deal. it looked pretty good. but should something happen, what else might the president be able to do in terms of throwing out some other arrows here to get this done, pulling those out of his quiver. do you see him maybe making a primetime address? does he deploy biden some way to try to expedite this process?

>> well, when you're in the white house, as you mentioned, there's a lot of different tools at your disposal that you can use. i think what's important right now is that once we're able to move forward on the government shutdown and on the debt ceiling, the president is able to get on to the other pressing priorities for this nation. like immigration reform, like gun legislatiolegislation, all different things we need to do to ensure the country is safe, we're making the economic progress we need to make. what's lost in this whole conversation is that there are urgent economic issues that need to be addressed for the middle class in this country. while republicans are playing these games, the middle class is out there struggling. >> what about you and your pac priorities. is there something you can do? are you planning to intervene in any way? perhaps advertisements? >> i think right now the best thing that can happen is the adults in washington get all this work done and we move on to some of these other priorities, because if you notice what's

happening at the white house, you don't see anybody spiking the football in the end zone because there appears to be a deal, you see very serious adults trying to get through this so that we can move on to other things. >> legislatively the president has been stymied and done nothing during this process. is it immigration that would be his first move? >> that's certainly what it seems. there's also the whole basket of economic issues that need to be addressed. student loans, you know, college kids are graduating from college having a tough time finding a job, having a tough time paying back their loans. that needs to be addressed. consumers need to be protected. there's a whole battery of things that need to be done to help out the middle class. frankly they're being ignored and that's what the president is keeping his eye on, things that help move the middle class forward. >> bill burton with us this morning. >> thank you. today a federal judge is expected to decide the fate of michigan's same-sex marriage ban. residents voted the ban nine years ago.

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for more information and savings options, call 1-888-xarelto or visit goxarelto.com. to politics now where voters decide today whether to send cory booker or steve lonigan to washington in a new jersey special election. cory booker armed with celebrity endorsements maintains a strong lead in the polls although some indicate his numbers have been shrinking in recent days. a fiesty face offlast night. it was their last debate before next month's vote for new jersey's governor. when asked how he would respond if one of his children came out as gay, here's what he said. >> for me -- >> okay. that is not, obviously, chris christie. we'll share that with you later. now, buono who has an openly

gay daughter declined to respond to christie's statement because his statement was if my children came to me an said they were gay, i would grab them, hug them, tell them i love them but also tell them dad thinks marriage is between a man and a woman and that's my position. that was what chris christie saided in. ted cruz's fund-raising committee nearly doubled its earnings in the three months leading up to the government shutdown. add in earnings from his re-election committee and the junior senator from texas picked up a total of about $1.2 million in the third quarter. president obama's juggling of the government shutdown, that threat of default and a vicious fight with republicans, but he says there are some perks to being president. >> for me, i think the coolest thing is that if there's somebody interesting who's doing anything, a scientist, a sports figure, you know, a writer, anybody in the world, if i want to call them up -- >> they'll pick up the phone and

talk to you. >> they'll answer my phone call. and that's a pretty cool thing. >> president obama says his daughters think the coolest thing is being friends with beyonce and jay-z. [ male announcer ] campbell's angus beef & dumplings. hearty cheeseburger. creamy thai style chicken with rice. mexican-style chicken tortilla.

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stick with innovation. stick with power. stick with technology. get the flexcare platinum. new from philips sonicare. as time quick ly runs out, another republican is ratcheting up the rhetoric again, calling for the impeachment of president obama. this time it's texas lieutenant governor david dewhurst who says the president should be impeached over benghazi and obama care. dewhurst joins the chorus of republicans who have recently talked about impeaching the president. that includes sarah palin, sam coburn and kerry bentivolio. let's bring in jimmy williams and robert traynham. robert is a former senior adviser to president george w. bush. good to see both of you. exciting day there in the

beltway, huh? >> sure. >> jim, you're just laughing there. jimmy, to you first. in a facebook post sarah palin wrote this, defaulting on our national debt is an impeachable offense and any attempt by president obama to unilaterally raise the debt limit without congress is also an impeachable offense. why so much talk about impeachment here, jimmy? we've been hearing that word a lot lately. >> i said back in june, on june 4th that i thought if we got to the point where we were at this debt ceiling crisis, if we had a government shutdown, blah, blah, blah, the next thing would be impeachment talk. so here we are once again having a conversation about impeachment. the interesting thing about former governor palin is, is she's putting in her mind putting the president in a box. what she's saying is if the president doesn't -- if the president raises the debt ceiling under the 14th amendment, he should be impeached. if the president does nothing, he should be impeached. so in sarah palin's mind, he

should be impeached. that is not an unusual or out of the line characteristic that you're seeing from the far right wing of the tea party. this is completely in line with what they're thinking. boy the way, if the president does -- if we do default, which i don't think we do. boehner has decided to bring this bill to the floor, he's going to pass it. we're going to get through this. but we're going to also set this up for the same thing in january. january 15th. and if we get to that point and he has not -- we are back at the same situation, they're going to talk about impeachment once again. i promise you it's going to happen. they have nothing left. >> talking about the gop, we're just getting note that gop senators will be meeting at 11:00 a.m. eastern, that's in about 30 minutes. they hope to have some sort of announcement by noon. also, we are watching the house floor. they have also opened within the last 15 minutes or so. robert, to you. does rnc chair reince priebus need to jump in here, when we hear these words impeach maengtd rhe

-- impeachment and rhetoric, does he need to jump in? >> yeah. but it's not just reince priebus. the reality is the president is not going to be impeached. the reality is the president has not done anything to be impeached. the reality is when you take a look at the constitution and what is an impeachable offense, this clearly does not rise to it. specifically on obama care, i have strong, strong reservations about obama care but the fact of the matter is, this was passed by the congress in a democratic way and obviously this president signed it into law. what we need to have is a rational conversation about the future of our spending in this country. we need to have a rational conversation on both sides about the leadership on both sides in terms of talking about spending and so forth. so to talk about impeachment is just a waste of everybody's time because it's not even rooted in reality. >> what's interesting here, robert said something very interesting. he said rational and reality. neither of those things are currently circulating through the blood of the republican caucus at this point in time. >> i disagree with you, jimmy.

jimmy, look, here's the truth. the truth is, is that there are far right wing individuals that are talking about impeachment, that are talking about not compromising. i'll concede that. when you take a look at michigan mcconnell. >> i said the house gop, not the senate gop. >> okay. when you take a look at some rational republicans within the party, they're saying stop the madness, let grownups get to the table. let's have a rational conversation about the future of our country. so it really is a far right wing group of individuals that are the minority and that they are very, very vocal. somebody needs to stay to stop talking and start thinking. >> robert intimated this, harry reid calling john boehner a coward. former president carter at a humanitarian event spoke to me about that statement. take a listen. >> i think that kind of rhetoric on either side, you know, calling people cowards and so

forth, i don't think that's constructive. you know, i know john boehner fairly well. he's not a coward. he's got a very difficult fragmented republican party. >> jimmy, house democrats yesterday, they were watching what speaker boehner was trying to do. speaker boehner unsuccessful. they were none too kind to boehner about those efforts that he made. should democrats tone it down a little here to give boehner that breathing room that some say he needs to get something done? >> i think it would be helpful if both sides turned it down. i also think if it would be helpful if the irrational house gop caucus would understand they cannot impose their will on the american people by bringing us literally, literally to the day before we are supposed to default on our debt. this is not -- that is not a rational way of doing business. that is not a rational way of running our government. that is not a realistic way of trying to convince the american people that you're on their side. and so robert said rational and realistic.

bringing us to this date right now as we speak, this is not the way to run your government. both sides are guilty here. both sides are guilty are spending, both sides of guilty of malfeasance, but you can't let a crazy faction of 40 right wing members of the house gop bring the entire federal government to its knees. that is simply not okay. >> jimmy, robert, we've got some breaking news. i'm going straight to kelly o'donnell from nbc news. she's got some information for us on a potential deal and what that might look like. >> reporter: good morning, richard. lots of updates expected today. republican sources tell me that speaker john boehner will be prepared to move forward today, presuming the senate does get an agreement. we expect that to unfold in the next couple of hours. he would be prepared to move forward with what the senate decides. now, key thing coming up here at the top of the hour at 11:00. republican senators will be having their own team meeting. they will get an update on where

things stand. we hope then when the senate floor opens at noon that we will have something from the leadership on the senate side that will tell us where is this deal. we can tell you that staffers have been working through the night to do the drafting of the particulars that make an idea into a piece of legislation and they really need to get a sense of how the republican senators are feeling. so that's a key point coming up. now, sources who know boehner's thinking about this, know the lay of the land expect there won't be any procedural problem on that side in terms of whether or not the speaker is ready to act. so that's an important sign. now, lots of things will unfold. things are always fragile on a day like this, but that is significant. i'm also told in talking to a lot of sources that while speaker boehner has been at least in the public sense weakened by this process, that there is no move to try to unseat him as speaker. that is something that will be talked about a lot but is not anything practically happening.

so we have not heard from democrats yet today. i can tell you some of the efforts of senators who have been trying to come up with additional ideas, that majority leader harry reid has been trying to put a lid on that, trying to make certain that it's the leadership that decides the next steps. but these are important break-throughs that could signal the congress could act. a lot still to come. >> so kelly in this breaking news then the speaker will move forward without, as we have been talking about, applying the hastert rule is what you're saying. >> yes. that would mean he would welcome the votes of democrats to get something passed. john boehner has never been a fan of using the term the hastert rule, but the idea of bringing bills that have a majority of the majority is something his leadership has tried to do. they recognize that today that might not be possible. we still don't know what the particulars might be of the senate deal but this is very significant that john boehner would not try to do another volley of ideas from the house. but it's an important signal.

again, lots to unfold between now and when this eventually comes out, but that's a big sign that things could come into place. i'm also told from senate sources that there are no assurances yesterday from any one or two members, namely a ted cruz or a mike lee, a tea party type senator who might attempt to slow things down, no assurances that there wouldn't be some action to slow things down. at the same time, i'm told if there is a perception of the deal, that that carries a great deal of weight. richard. >> what we know right now. kelly o'donnell, thank you so much. we'll be watching that. checking the news feed this morning, florida police have arrested two young girls who admitted bullying a 12-year-old before she committed suicide. we were not identifying the suspects because they are 12 and 14 years old. one of the girls admitted to the bullying on facebook saying she didn't care her classmate killed herself. >> she should be here. she should be here to see justice getting served. >> watch what your children do online. pay attention.

quit being their best friend and be their best parent. that's important. >> the suspects are charged as juveniles with aggravated stalking. it's being called the salute seen around the world. this is army ranger josh hargess wounded in the afghanistan attack last week. his commander thought he was unconscious when he awarded josh the purple heart in a ceremony at his bedside. despite his injuries and his doctor trying to restrain him, josh lifted his hand in a salute. his wife shared the photo and the commander's letter on her facebook page. wow. they are back, amy poehler and tina fey have signed on to host the golden globes through 2015. the queens of comedy proved to be winners last year. the awards was the most watched show in six years. the golden globes air january 12th on nbc. the seat squeeze is on at the airlines as they try to squeeze out a couple more bucks. mandy drury is here with what's

moving your money. mandy, good by to those bulky seats. i guess they're slimming them down for more profit, right? >> i don't get it. we're all getting bigger, but somehow the seats are getting smaller. the big u.s. airlines are taking out the old bulky seats in favor of these so-called slim line models that take up less space from front to back and that, believe it or not, allows for maybe five or even six more seats on each plane which obviously means more paying passengers and a smaller fuel bill as well because the seats are slightly lighter. but to add insult to injury, guess what, these new seats generally have thinner padding as well and the new layouts on some of the planes have made the aisles slightly narrower so that whole like airplane experience, not really getting much better. >> it's getting more interesting, shall we say. oreos maybe that's what we need to eat while we're on the plane here. >> there is scientific proof that oreos are indeed addictive, as addictive as cocaine, at

least for lab rats, according to one study. apparently also like us, they like the creamy center. there was a research team at connecticut college and they found that eating these oreos activates more neurons in the brain's pleasure center as drugs such as cocaine so these students put rats into a maze. on one side went rice cakes, which, you know, who likes rice cakes. >> i'm with you on that. >> and the other side went the oreos and they also did a different test where rats on one side got an injection of saline and the other got an injection of cocaine. and the rats really did like the cookies as much as they liked the addictive drugs. >> for me it's doritos, that's my favorite. >> absolutely for me too. salty rather than sweet. >> mandy drury on oreos today, thank you so much. travel and leisure is out with the best and worst airports for delay. among the worst, newark international with 25.7% of flights delayed. chicago's o'hare is almost 26%

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and a state-of-the-art monitoring center, where experts watch over all drilling activity twenty-four-seven. and we're sharing what we've learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. our commitment has never been stronger. all signs point to a deal right now. it appears speaker boehner will bring a bill up for a vote in the house. still, is there enough time to get this deal done? looking at the boards, up 160, the s&p up 17 and change. now, if there is a deal, the world, though, is still worried about this. they are looking at this problem of default. check out these headlines. in the u.k., america some of the avoid a catastrophic mistake. in japan nikkei directionless on u.s. fiscal debate uncertainty. joining us now, eamon javers.

what happens if that does happen? >> it's not as clear that we're counting down to a specific time. everybody in global markets is watching this event here in washington but the question is what happens tomorrow? the treasury has said as of tomorrow they'll have about $30 billion left in the coffers. they have run out of borrowing authority. that means they have to operate the u.s. government and all of its vast expenditures just based on the tax revenue that comes in day by day. but it's a little bit lumpy. they have some revenue coming in some days and big expenditures going out other days. so the question is, it's going to be white knuckle time over at the treasury department to figure out how they can manage that cash and when they might miss a payment. it's thanybody's guess when tha could happen if we don't get a deal here today. but we're optimistic and speaker boehner is huddling with his top leaders trying to work out the details. >> you said $30 billion. here are the due bills we must start paying next week. $12 billion in social security

payments due october 23rd, $6 billion on halloween for an interest payment on public debt and a whole slew of things on november 1st, including medicare payments and other issues such as social security payments, military pay and supplement al payments. where do we technically default based on that? does it really matter here? perception is often greater than reality when looking at the world markets. >> the first thing to worry about is the panic in world markets. the markets are sure a deal is coming and are not freaking out. but markets are irrational things and could freak out at any time. so you could have the impact before the event happens. the second thing is whenever the united states misses a payment on something it owes. that's called a default on obligations, not necessarily a default on u.s. debt but somebody is going to get stiffed by the u.s. government.

president obama says the united states will become a deadbeat nation if it has bills it can't pay. there's a $67 billion day. they have to come up with the cash for that day and can't borrow a dime. >> the doom's-day scenario, if we do default, some have been saying it's going to be worse than 2008. that bad? >> yeah. a lot of people think that's really the problem here, particularly when you're talking about default on u.s. debt. because u.s. debt is sort of the grease that runs the global economy. everything is priced against u.s. treasuries. they're sort of the benchmark for absolute totally safe investments. if those are suddenly not safe, that throws off the pricing of everything else in the global economy. there will be mass confusion. a lot of problem, a lot of people will say to heck with this, we're going to sell. that sets off a spiral that could get out of control very quickly. that's something that could be very, very scary and that's why wall street has been making the case you guys have to come to a deal here in washington. >> it's like the sky is no longer blue i guess is what you're saying. >> that's really it.

it's such an unprecedented event it would be very confusing for global markets, totally uncharted territory and something that's so dangerous that you don't want to mess with it to find out what would happen. >> thank you so much. with that we'll be right back right here on msnbc. ♪ ♪ hey lady! noooo! no! [ tires screech ] ♪ nooo! nooo! nooo! hey lady, that's diesel! i know. ♪ ♪

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the nation's retailers are scared the debt ceiling talks could put a wet blanket over their make-or-break holiday season sales. one reason that they're worried here, there's a new survey out that finds 29% of consumers plan to cut back on holiday spending as a result of the uncertainty in washington. that same survey finding, each shopper on average plans to spend just under $738 on the holiday this year. that's right, it's a 2% drop over last year's actual spending per person. we're joined be retail analyst hitha prabhaker. a sales decline when we look at that, that can also mean fewer jobs and an impact on hiring. >> right.

we're talking about 700,000 jobs, seasonal jobs that are going to be potentially happening for the holiday that are really at a standstill because these retailers can't go ahead and verify immigration and citizenship status because these checks online are unavailable. and you heard that macy's is going to now be opening for thanksgiving. this is retailers' go time. so if they're not able to check that employment, even if there is a deal that comes through today, they're still going to be in a massive crunch by the time they get to thanksgiving. >> and you were alluding to that number, $602 billion, that is big, big, big, up 3.9%. that's the forecast. other fresh indicators here that the shutdown is hurting retailers. weekly chain store sales falling nearly 1%. we're also seeing 40% saying they're cutting back on spending as a result. look at this number, consumer confidence down 12 points. >> it's the lowest it's been since the lehman brothers collapse. this is the most it's been down

since we've seen that collapse and that was back in 2008. so we're talking about not only consumer confidence falling but these retailers aren't able to check those statistics so they're not able to make accurate forecasts. >> do you see it bouncing back? >> i am hoping that it will bounce back. you know, before we had gone into this, the consumer confidence was at a pretty high rate. >> so even if we do get a deal today, which is what we're hearing at the moment that that might happen or there's better indications of that, some goods might get stuck in port. >> right. we're talking about four million cargo containers in port right now. and part of the reason why they're stuck is because no one can go ahead and get that through. so we're talking about the fda, even if they were able to green light this right now, we're still going to have a backlog, which we'll maybe even see some of that merchandise on the shelves well past the holidays. >> it could be tough for retailers, we're hoping not. >> i'm crossing my fingers, richard. >> that wraps up this hour of

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hi, everybody, good morning, i'm thomas roberts. welcome to the final countdown of our government's self-made catastrophe. we begin this hour with breaking news. with just hours left on the debt play clock, the senate is said to be very close to pulling off a hail mary of a deal and speaker john boehner might be ready to help bring it home. check out some of the headlines. the new york post, brink of disaster. usa today with zero hour. the full senate is scheduled to convene at noon, but republican senators are reportedly meeting this hour and today's movement in the senate follows yesterday's all-out implosion in the house. >> we need to keep in mind what the real -- what the real goal here is, which is getting this country back on track. it ought not be about the politics of the game or whether or not someone keeps their leadership. >> so how did the senate get back in possess