that's "hardball" for you, thanks for being with us. polls will be closed in new jersey in just a moment, a few seconds. so we're about to get our first look at the new jersey governor's race. "all in with chris hayes" start right now. good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes and that epic music can only mean one thing, it is election night in america. we're following a couple of key races. in the state of new jersey, polls are closed and nbc news projects that governor chris christie will win in his bid for re-election, someone so many political observers call a star on the rise, a possible

contender for 2016. we're going to have all the details about what the exit polling shows about what we expect will be chris christie's re-electi re-election. in virginia, polls closed an hour ago, and that is at this moment, too close to call. terry mcauliffe is leading. and polls close in one hour as an overwhelmingly democratic city decides whether it will elect it's first democratic mayor in over 20 years. it's election day with mayoral elections in dozens of cities, including a couple of counties in colorado to sucede and become the 51st state. a tea party birther candidate against an established republican and yet another evocative sign of intraparty warfare. and those gubernatorial races in

new jersey and virginia. with tea party republicans helping the gop take the house a year later. this offyear election probably not offering the same kind of prophecy. alex bag -- your reaction to the news out of new jersey, steve? >> shocked. it's going to be a late night in new jersey because we're going to have to wait until mercer county comes in. the interesting thing here is to think back four years ago to how chris christie got in that position anyway. christie's re-election over the inge couple bent, it had everything to do with jon corzine with how terrible his governorship had gone and the position of the republican party is nothing but the protest vehicle for voters who were

feeling economic anxiety. tonight chris christie's re-election has everything to do with chris christie, and nothing to do with his democratic opponent. it has a little bit of the -- but chris christie, think about this, in winning tonight, and i'm guessing, we'll see what the final margin is, it's probably going to be in the range of 20 points, maybe a little bit bigger. not since 1985, before tonight had a republican won a state wide election in new jersey and got more than 30% of the vote. that's the territory he's in right now. >> you took the words right out of my mouth. it hasn't been since 1985 that republicans -- chris christie, there was a quote from the former adviser to the president who said, democrats are going to live to regret not going harder

after chris christie in this election. do you think that's true? >> there's always a republican party that will go hard against chris christie if he goes to higher office. christi didn't have any kind of a challenger. christy's numbers were so good that democrats didn't think -- they weren't going to put any muscle into that race. i think, i mean i remain unconvinced that he's a shoe inin the race. you quietly check the social boxes, the gay marriage box, christie is against marriage equality, he's against reproductive choice. >> chris christie is pro life. >> he's taken conservative positions on social issues. he's not a fan of unions, he's not a fan of investment in green industry, those are republican

stances at this point. but he has not had to put those at the forefront of his agenda and that's critical. >> that's partially the state of new jersey and the electorate. and it's partly the political wisdom, to distinguish between the positions you hold a and the fights you pick. those are two very different things. and chris christie, i think, has been very smart about which fights he picks in terms of how those are going to play politically, he has by and large picked the fights that will benefit the -- had this moment where he was able to show all the persuadable democratic voters in new jersey that he was not just another john boehner republican. the other big race tonight is in virginia, we do not have a projected winner there yet, it is to early to call, our exit polling shows terry mcauliffe leading. joining us now is senator marg warner, democrat from virginia.

senator, i remember when governor mark warner of virginia was the chris christie of two democrats amidst the out years of america. in a state that george w. bush had won, what has happened between that election night when you won and tonight? >> well, i think what you have seen is on some level more of a polarization of the republican party, i'm actually on the right. a and the recipe that allowed me to stand here 12 years ago in virginia and win in a state that was definitely red at that point, and for terry mcauliffe to win tonight in virginia and chris christie is winning in new jersey is that people are actually tired of kind of an extremist crowd. in both parties, you see that a lot more in the republican party

right now. remember, virginia was ground zero for the harm done by the stupid government shutdown. so you had the tea party candidates coming traipsing through virginia, i don't know who on the republican side thought that was a good idea, but it actually helped mcauliffe. >> when you ran for governor, and some of your campaign ads, there was a difference between the race you ran and the race that mcauliffe ran. your race really focused on your record as a businessman, job creation issues. terry mcauliffe has focused on social issues. his record on birth control and choice and sod my and things like that, that is a real difference in terms of where the state has moved and where the republican party, i think has moved. >> the whole ticket on the

republican side this time was so far outside the main stream that terry was actually picking up republican endorsements that i never received. so this was a lot of, i think, actually saying thumbs down on this extreme approach and for the whole country, i actually hope it drives more candidates in both parties back over to more of a main stream. >> we're seeing this in the exit pollinga we had. virginia the early numbers that we had showed terry mcauliffe winning among women by a whopping 34 points for cuccineli. that's a pretty sizable gender gap. what does it mean for terry mcauliffe, if he wins tonight, who would enter the governor's house with a man date that strikes me as republican extremism at large rather than a mandate for progressive

governance in the great commonwealth of virginia. >> let's talk about the gender gap for a moment. virginians take pride that we have earned recently some national recognition, when i started as governor, best state for business. and then in the last couple of years, we have the brunt of a lot of late-night jokes when you had ultrasound and all kinds of ore restrictions that were so far beyond the pale. now terry's challenge is actually going to govern on the platform he campaigned for. how do you proout the protect -- how do you look at junior colleges for technical education. he constantly said he was going to be bipart san, we're still going to have a very republican delegate in the state legislature. >> one thing that the president of the united states has learned is that one cannot impose

bipartisanship unilaterally. senator mark warner, from the common wealth of virginia. #. all right, joining me now is nbc news correspondent kelley o'donnell who's live at the chris christie campaign headquarters in new jersey. i'm going to go out on a limb and say it's a fairly buoyant mood at the christie camp at this hour. >> there's a real chill in the air, the ocean is just off to my left, and off to my right, there's sort of ten areas, like the ball dropping down on new year's eve. we expect governor cristie to address the crowd here probably in the next couple of hours. i was on the campaign trail with him, when he did a barn storming bus tour, 46 stops in one week. he addressed a lot of the issues and one of the things that he was really shooting for tonight was not only to be re-elected,

and he had been way ahead of the democrat barbara buono for a long time in polls, but to do something that republicans really needed him to do, and that is to get above 50%. we'll see how wide his margin is tonight. that's critical because it hasn't happened in new jersey to have a republican win with more than 50% of the vote since back in the '80s. if that happens, he can show his party that there's a way to govern and win that might be the path for the future. he's very careful to always be focused on running for reeelection for his job as governor, but there was lots of messages to a wider audience beyond the guard on state. i just spoke to suzanna martinez who's the governor of new mexico, also a republican who's been out on the trail with him. and she has said that he has been helpful in reaching out to communities that have not been

as concerned about getting in more of those voters. she definitely talked about the outreach to latinos and mine north voter who is might be registered as democrats oar independents but who like the christie style. we have watched the full color of chris christie over the last few days, moments where he had outbursts of passion and then moments when he was wrapping his arms around voters. this is a launching pad for what might be a future path if he's interested in running in 2016. he's certainly going to be a voice in the party and that voice will be judged by how well he does tonight. >> kelley o'donnell, thank you so much. one of the stories that's going to come out of tonight, that you've already seen being written is the contrast between chris christie and tim cuccineli. you're going to see the ken

cuccineli model versus the chris christie model. it is largely true that chris christie has essentially done a politics of attempting to pick the fight where things are most popular and ken cuccineli has not done that. >> just moments ago, you said to mark warner, his record on sodomy. which is crazy, we are talking about someone who has litigated the issue of sodimy and divorce. then you have chris christie who obviously has taken pages from a wider, a better playbook. but let's not forget, chris christie would freak out enough about cory booker that he spent millions of dollars to hold a separate election.

so he would not have to be on the same ballot as him. that is insight. this thing has gotten completely bust up. >> the one thing i would say about christie, is that it's interesting what christie represents in the -- a generation ago, the play book that republicans were spoedsed to follow, christie todd whitman in new jersey, rudy giuliani in new york, to be socially liberal and economically conservative. christie thought he could be -- nixed because of abortions. rudy juliangiuliani thought he they went too far within the context of the republican party, and they overcompensated for the cultural liberalism of their areas and they disqualified themselves nationally. what chris christie has done, he has not disqualified himself on any single cultural social issues. i'm going to give you updated

reports. the governor's race in new jersey is too close to call. we have early results to project the results on the evening and those models are now showing up that that race is too close to call for terry mcauliffe and -- u.s. action, and bill your reaction to the fact that we're calling this too close to call? >> well, i think folks knew that this race was going to be on the closer side. it wasn't going to be a big blowout. >> that's not true. two weeks ago, it looked like you had terry mcauliffe with 14 points. >> you had wimpb poll, u you had one poll that's kind of an outlier. so mostly this race has been between four, fife, six, seven points maximum. but what you saw happening here in the last couple of weeks,

harry closed strong, he had middle class moderate, main stream issues, and the other side, ken cuccinelli is running against obama care. he was making a case that this was going to be a referendum on dam obama care. but ken cuccinelli was too extreme for main stream voters in virginia. 53% of virginians said that ken cuccinelli was too liberal for their -- i think what you see is an electorate that may be concerned about obama care but is rooting for it to succeed. i would be very worried if there was national republicans, this is not an issue that's just a gimmie. >> terms of how they feel about obama care. when i think republicans

misunderstand is this, they think obama care is an issue, that the voter has an opinion on obama care and that drives their voting behavior. it's the other way around, people are republicans or democrats, they're sort of disposed to lean one way or the other. that's the thing that's driving their opinion about obama care. >> that's exactly right. another thing that's happening now, the republicans a ought to be worried about in 2014, is that generally when you have voter anger against washington, that's all directed toward the president. for republicans, they got voters really mad at them. and all this electorate anger about how they're going, the direction of the country, is dissipated across the party. the party that's making the stronger argument for the middle class, for the main stream, is who's going to win. going into this midterm election, i think the president and democrats are very well positioned to do quite well.

>> bill burton, thank you very much. it's a great time, alex wagner is going to stick around and we will be right back with more. road closed? there's a guy... excuse me? glacier point? follow me! ♪ follow me! keep up, keep up, keep up. ♪ look he's right there! follow me! [ male announcer ] the nissan pathfinder. wow! follow me! [ male announcer ] nissan. innovation that excites. now get a $279 per month lease on a 2014 nissan pathfinder. ♪ and zero heartburn is awesome. just like zero cutlery. and you can't beat zero. [ male announcer ] prilosec otc is the number one doctor recommended

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we know last year from watching maine and maryland to become the first two states to pass initiate toughs approving marriage equality. and colorado and washington, the first states to pass marijuana legalization. it tells us a lot about the direction of politics more broadly. in colorado, voters are going to be asked to approve massive tax increases to increase funding for education. it wants voters to i prove a billion dollar tax increase, it will get rid of colorado's flat tax rate and go to a two-tier system. residents making more than $75,000 will be taxed at 4.9%.

they will direct all state revenue to go towards edge indication. the idea being here that democrats can convince voters to pass higher taxes for more i e. >> amendment 56 puts the money in the class room. big change, small price. >> to give you an idea of some of the organizations spending money on both sides of this referend referendums. it's against the ballot initiative and yes, that's a real committee that registered. the second tax measure to support education is proposition 88, which would put tax on the sale and purchase of marijuana, that would help fund public schools. and raise the minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $8.25.

joining me now a staff attorney for national employment law project. and syndicated newspaper columnist based in colorado. colorado famously is ground zero for the taxpayers bill of rights that essentially imposed what is the federal sequester, you know, hard caps on what you could spend, at the state level. it had a terrible result in this state. tonight's ballot initiative strikes me as an indicator that there's a corrective happening? >> absolutely, i think that's exactly right. colorado is a comparatively wealthy, relatively wealthy in terms of other states. we're often times near the bottom in terms of per pupil funding. this ballot initiative at the top line does make an effort to correct that funding discrepancy. part of the problem is that you've got built into this

measure language that would take a lot of that new money, new public school money and put it in the hands of privately owned charter schools. this is why you see interest groups like the walton foundation, famously anti-union, supporting money into this ballot measure to pass it. so what you really see here is at the top line, a progressive effort to raise revenue, but underneath, the devil is potentially in the details where some of that money goes to one of the ring wings big project and that is to take money out of the school system. >> we have seen a lot of acceptance for the fact that we saw a lot of success in the mid 2000s, arizona, colorado, florida, missouri, nevada, oregon, washington, all raising the minimum wage through state ballot initiatives. why are we not getting as many states doing that in the last two years? >> the context for those raises in the mid 90s is the fact that

the federal minimum wage had remained from $5.60 an hour. congress had only voted three times in the last 30 years to raise it. so when it stays flat for that long, you have states taking action to raise the minimum wage. in that time period, we found nine states where voters enacted these minimum wage increases through the ballot. the federal minimum wage has remained the same since 2009. >> if the federal government can't get off it's duff, own the states will do it. >> it's insanely popular, it's popular among republicans, it's popular across the board. and it's something that the country desperately needs. it's good policy. >> exactly. and if you look at the states that you mention, a lot of those

were red and purple states and thoerz minimum wage increases by overwhelming margins. >> in a year that george w. bush carried that state. >> missouri in 2006, 76% of voters voted to raise the minimum wage. it's a very popular issue because workers and voters have recognized what politicians have failed to recognize. >> there's a fascinating thing happening in colorado. rural counties in colorado are voting to sucede and become the 51st state? what's up with that? >> it's an example here in colorado of the extremism that we have seen on the right. you see a part of the state that doesn't like what's going on, the state becoming, i wouldn't call it a liberal state, i would call it a moderate purple state. so what they tried to do in the

upcoming gubernatorial race saying that democrats only represent the urban areas. it's really very cultural place to set up -- trying to take out the governor. >> finally david, there's a fascinating vote happening in colorado tonight about tracking. this is one of these issues that if you go to zoning meetings, if you go to community meetings, if you were at local mayoral races, everywhere in this country, you're seeing people get up and scream about fracking. >> there are municipalities that are trying to basically ban fracking. and you've got the state under a half republican and half democratic -- on behalf of the industry, force communities to

accept fracking in their midst. so what you're seeing here is a battle over who gets to decide what kind of fossil fuel exploration gets to happen in people's own community. >> thank you both. we have a lot more election coverage ahead. there's a big, big political story in the news today that involves our favorite mayor robert ford. >> let me ask you a question. will you repeat that question? >> do you smoke crack cocaine? >> that's the question on the tabled a the big reveal coming up. my mantra? family first.

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if you like your health care plan, you keep your health care plan. these folks need to stop scaring everybody. >> it is fair to say those words are now coming back to haunt the president as the media goes to town on americans who are losing their current insurance plan. we have covered extensively the horrible half truth stories -- people seeing their insurance cancelled. but if you throw out all the misinformation and misdirection, it is true there are some number of people who are going to lose plans that they liked. and i'm confident, a year from now everyone will be better off. it's also an undeniable fact that right now the individual insurance market is being pretty thoroughly disrupted and for some people that really sucks.

but the coverage of this disruption has been hyperbolic, it's been an object lesson in something psychologists call status quo bias. a study out of harvard said if you give people a number of investment options to choose from, they usually choose the option of doing what they're already doing, even if that's a bad choice. this has been established in experiment after experiment. we prefer the devil we know to the one we don't. and it's precisely this fear of change that proponents used health reform -- in the infamous harry and louise ad, the -- >> this was covered under our

old plan. >> oh, yeah, that was a good one, wasn't it? >> things are changing and not all for the better. the government is making us pick between plans -- >> it's fear of the unknown. it's set in the future after the big change has come and those who have lived through it are filled with regret and longing and nostalgia, they wish things had never changed, because we all know we're going to die. there is some very deep part of us that always wants things to just stay as they are right now. it is embedded in ourselves and in our soul. things are changing and not all for the better. it was that fear of the unknown that killed health care reform back in the 1990s, fueled by those who made a lot, a lot of money from the status quote. and -- so hammered home the

message, don't worry, if you have insurance, nothing's going to change for you. they also designed the entire policy of the affordable care act arranound making good on th promise. as many americans as 78% who have employer -- no amount of policy design or blanket promises can change the bedrock truth we're seeing now, change, real change like the kind the affordable care act represents is -- and it requires disruption and some people aren't going to like it. election night is a good time to remind ourselves of this basic truth. politicians may try to hide or hedge that truth, but they shouldn't. to be pushing out past the frontiers of the status quo into the darkness of the unknown with the belief there is something

better in the future than in the past. that things can improve, that they must improve and that our collect ty will and dedication and struggle can make it so. as always, the defenders of the status quo will fight with everything they have. they will have human psychology on their side. but i doesn't mean we are destined to live this way. in the end, we do progress, in spite of ourselves. efinitely for its traffic, congestion, for the smog. but there are a lot of people that do ride the bus. and now that the buses are running on natural gas, they don't throw out as much pollution into the air. so i feel good. i feel like i'm doing my part to help out the environment.

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spiriva helps me breathe better. does breathing with copd weigh you down? don't wait to ask your doctor about spiriva. how can i help you? oh, you're real? you know i'm real! at discover, we're always here to talk. good, 'cause i don't have time for machines. some companies just don't appreciate the power of conversation! you know, i like you! i like you too! at discover, we treat you like you'd treat you. get the it card and talk to a real person. you asked me a question back in may. you can redo that question. >> do you smoke crack coke kachkach cocaine? >> have you tyes, am i on it no? no. you ask the question properly, i'll answer it. >> so that happened, that was

toronto mayor rob ford admit what he has repeatedly denied in the last six months. he has smoked cocaine while in office. here's breaking news regarding bob ford. >> [ bleep ]. >> first a quick recap, the right wing mayor of toronto was busted for being an alleged star of an alleged videotape that allegedly shows him smoking crack. reporters from the toronto newspaper say they were shown the video earlier this year which prompted ford to publicly deny the allegations back in may. >> there's been a serious accusation from the toronto star that i use crack cocaine. i do not use crack cocaine, nor a am i an addict of crack cocaine. as for a video, i cannot comment on a video that i have never seen or does not exist. >> just last week, toronto police came forward and said not

only does a rob ford crack tape exist, but they have possession of it. over the weekend, ford did some soul searching, vowing to stop getting, quote, hammered but made no reference to his choice of words crack cocaine. he wasn't lying, the media just didn't ask the correct question. but as the toronto star points out, the question have you ever smoked crack cocaine has been posed several times. >> maybe when i've been in a drunken stupor. i want everyone to see the tape. >> one former ford ally admitting i think he's lost the moral authority to leave. and reporters were again summoned to another news conference, the mayor arrived late but was apologetic.

>> there's only one person to blame for me, and that is myself. i know that admitting my mistake was the right thing to do. and i feel like 1,000 pounds have been lifted off my shoulders. folks, i have nothing left to hide. >> ford may be remorseful, but the guy's not going anywhere. unless he's convicted of a crime, he'll stay in office. and he's committed to staying on board until elections next year. >> i was elected to do a job and that's exactly what i'm going to continue doing. and on october 27th of 2014, i want the people of this great city to decide whether they want rob ford to be their mayor.

>> maybe right about now you're feeling a little bit sorry for rob ford, people do make mistakes, heck, i'm a liberal, i think we would all be better off being more compassionate. rob ford has done much worse than -- he's anti-union, anti-pax abhe took away the right of transit workers to strike. cut bus routes. refused to provide needed shelter for the homeless. he's also been pretty intolerant of people batting drug addiction. who's going to want to live in a murnt that's invaded every day and night by drug use. perhaps the people of toronto will provide rob ford with a greater sense of charity and forgiveness than he has shown

them. we'll be right back. the was a truly amazing day. without angie's list,

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will be re-elected. barbara buono will not be successful in her bid. it will make a pathway for chris christie's political star to rise in new jersey. terry mccauliffe -- one more projection we can make is that the lieutenant governor race in virginia will go to democrat ralph northam, much to the chagrin and regret of the republican party. joining me now, former governor of new jersey, christine todd whitman, she's also author of a

new book "it's my party too." john nicholls my colleague at the nation, co-author. and alice wagner is back with us. governor, i will begin with you and your reaction to governor crist ie's victory in new jersey. >> people are desperate for leaders who don't have any -- that the public sees and supports. and chris, you may argue with his style from time to time, but it's very jersey and it goes over well in our state. >> contingent on the fact that there is no mitch mcconnell in the democratic party. he's been able to work new jersey democrats, because new jersey democrats were fractured and they were looking for someone they could deal with. and there was no election night gathering when christie was

elected the first time around, the state said down the line, anything he brings up we will throw back at him. it can be an effective strategy fi for essentially creating a lot of political -- >> it can. but he's been smart enough to be able to pick them off one by one and find the things they're interested, and to work that kind of magic. i worked very closely with democrats even though both houses were republican. but some of the most controversial pieces of legislation, took democrat support and you can do it. he's done it magnificently, because democrats didn't even fight him. i feel sorry for barbara buono because the democrats ran from her. >> i want to talk about the virginia race which is looking quite close at the moment. we'll talk about the implications there right after we take this break. without the thinking that makes it real?

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we are book on this election night tracking all the returns. john, you just wrote a book called dollarocracsy. terry mccauliffe is in a battle with -- he outspent cuccinelli, outside spending was more than heavily than mccauliffe. chris christie outspent barbara buono by quite a bit. but new jersey went overwhelmly in favor of the democrats. 24 million on behalf of the democrats, only $10 million for the republican party.

doesn't that -- big outside money, bad, this pool of reactionary forces against the little guy, the progressive? >> here's the bottom line, we'll see where virginia ends up, we're going to come out in a situation where the top of the ticket races where the most money was won, where the business community went, you had a victory. there's no doubts that unions come in and they spend money, and it's big money often. they're going in those letting tiff races to try to maintain a balance. they didn't go after christie, because they knew he would bring that -- i'll take us slightly off this for a second. you were talking about the minimum wage freezes. i was in seattle in that seatac race, in a little town with 12,000 voters spent 1 $.2 mill

kwlon. when you have a $50 million governor's race or more in virginia, when you've got, you know, the kind of spending we saw, we are developing politics where the price of entry -- >> but alex, the virginia race shows that dollarocrasy is how the league determines this them. >> he got a lot of money into this race. i think the biggest sort of signal in all of this is that there's twam governing, at the state level and the judicial branch. that is where things are actually happening. so the municipal level, the state level, that's where things are happening and that's where the money is going to do. that's where they see the rubber meeting the road. you can't actually pour money into judicial nominations, which is clearly what congress is

doing, but that's where the big big slice is going to be. congress -- >> that's a really good thought. congress is more likely to have equilibrium, it's almost like a money ball. if you're a general manager, where are you going to make the bucks? republican primary, there's basically an establishment candidate by the name of bradley burns, he's gotten 200,000 from the chamber of commerce. this is his first test case of whether the part of the party that wants to oppose the tea party at an electoral primary level is going to be be able to do out. >> i think you're reading as much h too much into it. you know, it's not necessarily reflective of the rest of the country and you can't take that the republican party is going to go all that way because of this. >> respectfully, i would say

this, there were -- it only took about 80 members of that house caucus to sign a letter saying that you should shut down obama care and shut down the government if they don't. you know, if young wins tonight, this is the one that believes the president was born in kennaa-- >> the trouble is it is, the party keeps getting defined out of washington because that's where all the big names are, and that's where the press is. if you look at the party per se, the people that used to be the traditional republican party. they're not there. they're voting for people like chris christie. they don't agree with him on everything, but they want somebody who's more to the center in order to get things through and get things done. >>