our expert professor kapustin will tell you about earthquakes . the chinese can boast of the most ancient information about earthquakes; they described them more than 3,000 years ago. in ancient manuscripts there is a mention of the destruction of palaces due to earth shaking. the first biblical mention is the story of the destruction of jericho, and it is a detailed description of the earthquake. they were sure that the evil dragon lu was shaking the earth. in japan, under the islands in the mud lies anomazu, this is a huge catfish, it turns from side to side and shakes all the islands. but the most the palestinians had an interesting explanation for the shaking of the earth. they were sure that allah ordered the angel to hold the earth. he placed it on a bull named hippopotamus, the bull of nakitalefan. the last one is trying. the moon and causes

an earthquake. seismology as a scientific discipline began at the end of the 19th century, when the first seismographs were built. by the way, the first seismograph was invented by the russian scientist, boris galitsin, back in 1906. the data obtained and their analysis led to an understanding of the internal processes in the earth, and ultimately to a modern theory, which explains the deformation of the earth's shell and the origin of seismicity. yuri yuevich, how did people used to explain the cause of earthquakes? well, people have felt horror of earthquakes, probably since time immemorial, when they became aware of themselves, and we know nothing about it, because there was no writing then, of course, when the earth shakes under you, there is little pleasant, good, but it’s difficult for us even imagine, to be honest, here... they described

an earthquake 3,000 years ago, by the way, they were the first to invent not a seismograph, but a seismoscope, that is, a device that showed swaying, vibrations of the soil, and we can say that the chinese were the first to begin to engage in science, but basically, of course, everything was connected with mythology, the myths are very different, there are many interesting myths, for example, our peoples, who lived in kamchatka, assumed that some, some divine being was riding a sleigh drawn by dogs and holding the earth, when the dogs scratched the fleas, then the earth shook, that was the idea, the africans had a very cool idea of ​​what an earthquake was, there is a certain deity, a certain deity who carries a flat earth on his head, by the way, now many also believe that the earth is flat after all, that’s when he turns the famine and that means an earthquake occurs, but these are all myths, the first person who tried to explain

earthquake, there was aristotle, i think so, because he tried to explain by certain winds that blow underground, in caves, voids, and do not lead to swaying, vibrations of the soil, well, different motives, but in general, like science, my colleagues will talk about it today, it started apparently, after all, since the lisbon earthquake of 1755, where many people died, then they began to observe all this, and so everything was based on mythology, we still cannot really predict, but today we will try, let’s not try and figure out how earlier, here alexey dzhermenovich, yuri yurievich already said that the chinese had some kind of devices, but still some other one, wait, they even paid attention to the behavior of animals, therefore, that’s why our friend pavel read this, he always is terribly afraid of earthquakes, so a person always lives, of course, he’s very afraid, he carries with him this soft, fluffy, yes, seismograph, yeah, but what, it seems like a cat is supposed to help?

yes, she, well, animals feel vibrations, yes, they begin to behave unnaturally, now she behaves normally, now yes, okay, good, and alexey dzhermenovich, well , really, how people used to try to predict an earthquake, in general the idea of ​​​​predicting an earthquake quite new, it was a direction when humanity had accumulated a certain supply of seismological data and after that somewhere well, to the middle... the first task that came to mind was to try to predict an earthquake on the basis of this accumulated information, it must be said that the leading countries of that time were in the united states. in the soviet

union, china launched gigantic funding programs with the goal of learning how to predict earthquakes; today, in the united states, these programs have been completely stopped and their funding has been stopped. in our country , these programs remain at the level of purely fundamental scientific research without hopes for practical applications. and in china , these studies are actively continuing. this program is underway in china. now it means. to finish this, that there were, it means there were several successful forecasts, such short-term ones, which were given by the chinese , by the way, the japanese, ours too, but

these were not major events, unfortunately, such major world events as the catastrophe here 2000, in my opinion - in phuke in indonesia, in all these places, this is a gigantic tsunami, it was not predicted in any way no one, our spitak earthquake too, just now there was an earthquake in turkey , where everything is already so covered with observation instruments, well, there were no forecasts, it seems to me that this puts the finishing touches on this problem. an earthquake must be defeated differently. we will return to this issue today, yes, but after advertising, advertising on ntv. don't miss the central television's first information show about the events and people of the week.

they want to put the ukrainian commander-in-chief on trial, just as general zaluzhny became a defendant in a criminal case. in what he is accused of and what does the election of a new ukrainian president have to do with it. an information bomb for zelensky: why was a veteran of the ss division brought to the ukrainian president’s speech in the canadian parliament? proverb biden, he grabs a gun, why does trump need parabem and why president biden decided to go on strike. this will be your central television on saturday at 19:00 on ntv. the program is on air, science and we are a program about how science will change our lives in the next 10 years, in 10 years science will defeat the earthquake, but unfortunately, our expert, professor kapustin, does not believe this. every year there is an earthquake on earth with total destruction and loss of life, plus a tsunami

that washes away villages and cities along with their inhabitants. modern science is not able to foresee such cataclysms. and due to the lack of an accurate forecast, all the blame is shifted to scientists. in italy, they even sued geophysicists and seismologists who could not predict the earthquake, but 300 people died. most earthquakes occur at tectonic plate boundaries. plates collide, form mountains, or break apart to form an ocean. any earthquake is a process that occurs at speed. tens of kilometers per second, but the main question is where and when the earthquake will occur, when we cannot predict yet , that’s where it will most likely happen, we know. now earthquake-prone countries are japan, chile, indonesia, papua, new guinea.

we are very lucky; a significant part of russia belongs to seismically quiet areas. high strength building. they build only in the caucasus, in transbaikalia, well, in kamchatka, however, in recent years, earthquake-resistant houses have begun to be built on the black sea coast and in gornoaltaisk and even in novokuznetsk. andrei vladimirovich, well, before learning to predict an earthquake, i would like to understand the reasons. what does science know today about the causes of earthquakes? almost everything, tell yourself, it would seem, the reasons are so... clear, understandable, the reasons, well , if you take a stick and start bending it with your hands, sooner or later, this very event will happen, the whole question is just in what place

this stick will crack, but we know for sure that it will break, the picture in earthquakes is approximately the same, we know these zones for sure , the expert spoke about interplate... areas, but these are not necessarily interplate and intraplate earthquakes, areas of mountain building, there are many such zones on the earth, towards themselves, but the plates are pushed by other forces, deeper, located at a depth of 250-300, 500 km, these are the upper mantle sections that move these same plates that capture the earth’s crust, that is, the plates float like islands on the islands, but

in addition to the islands, there are also, for example, islands that are being born, well, for example, half of africa, east africa, is splitting up along the rift zone, plates are just emerging there, they are crawling out, as if from below, they are not crawling out, they are crawling, they are pushing us away, here they are where we are being pushed to the north, samali to the east, all of central africa to the west, in this place in the near future there will be a red, not red, but if you want, there is an orange sea, that’s not the question, all these places are well known, and these places marked on the maps, these are active zones are zones of faults, lineaments, maybe we will talk about them later, but it’s a matter of time and exact location. we return to this stick, where will the rupture occur in this stick, when?

when we bend, bend, bend, but it all depends on the stick, wet, dry, with bark, without bark, uh, and we should have already studied all the slabs, which one we studied, but there are too many entering circumstances, and one slab one thick, the other thin, they interact at different speeds, they consist of different substances, uh, the plates themselves interact with different kinematics, with different movements relative to each other, these are complex movements of the islands towards each other, some go down one under the other, or there are collisions or vice versa, uplift in the form of mountain systems, so there are many types of interaction, there is a lot of substance, but i understand correctly if we we live there in the middle of the slab, more or less nothing, at the junction of the slab i can remember the seventh. great year i started working earthquake in the vrancea mountains, this is

southern romania, carpathians, earthquake 7.8 magnitude, quite decent, we are at work in moscow university, we are exchanging impressions, whose dishes were clinking, in moscow, there was an earthquake, but these elastic deformation waves reached moscow , so intraplate... uh, effects, they can also happen, okay, here it is possible, we need to understand the essence a little the question is still, an earthquake for an ordinary person is just a vibration, so we feel something is shaking, that’s why the earth shakes, and we call it an earthquake, after all, we need to separate the concepts a little, we have sism-resistant construction and engineers they understand this as the destruction of buildings, there was this earthquake, there are mechanics and they say how the energy accumulated in the earth is simply released, yes, but such

a moment arises, the same stick, it can break and there will be a sound, or it can break and there will be no sound, for example, the wheel, you punctured the wheel, it turns out there was a strong bang , you understand exactly, the wheel is punctured, that’s for the common man, but sometimes you puncture the wheel, it deflates, quietly deflates, the same thing happens with this tension. in the earth's crust, but maybe in different ways, okay, while science today is trying to predict an earthquake, how successfully, i even have a small device, stop it now, turn it on, first, yes, here, here, here is an earthquake happened, that’s really what it’s like, yes, it’s very strong for you, because it’s actually your... ’ toy that started bouncing, that’s how it works, well, i mean, that ’s what they predict, seismometer, take it,

you’ve already made an earthquake , you felt it, if we are talking about prediction earthquake, no, we must determine, as andrei vladimirovich said, the main place, time and strength or magnitude of the earthquake, this means predicting, yes, okay, we have decided on the place , let’s say, yes, we know that at the junction of the plates it will. yes, at the junction, not even like that, we even, yes, we can even say, not only at the junctions of the plates, in which, in which areas of the plates there will be, that is, not everywhere, if we say that we have a fault. contact of two plates, this does not mean that there can be earthquakes everywhere, there are zones where it just slides, quietly, slowly, one slab crawls under the other, quietly slowly, like a turtle, this is how it shows how a turtle crawls slowly , slowly, and no one feels it, but there is where energy accumulates, accumulates, accumulates for thousands of years, then a

tahoku earthquake occurs, an earthquake sumatra, an earthquake in turkey and now... the question arises, even where does this earthquake begin? when we talk about the location of the earthquake, we must understand that this earthquake source, the volume from which energy is released, is not dot, this is 1000 km, here is tahoku - 100 km, turkey - 100 km, we say that there is an earthquake, this gap that everyone was drawing, it was in turkey and syria, these are hundreds of kilometers, you know, that’s how we were then we can say exactly what place we are talking about the whole region where it could be the region remains the last moment this time all the time this is the most difficult thing in fact because we have different types of forecasts probably the most pressing short-term forecast is that it doesn’t exist at least it doesn’t exist talk a lot about

hugerbitse who said i know what will happen soon and that it has started to shake, let’s run through it, but you don’t know exactly when you will start knocking, but he immediately knocks hard, or something, or at first little by little, that’s the development when it starts , for example, yes, yes, stronger, it takes very little time, that is, there are indeed monitoring systems now that say, an earthquake is starting, these are these seconds, but this is more for preventing some further man-made disasters, yes, so that stop somewhere. run out, no, don’t even go like that, they won’t have time to run out during this time, they’ll panic anymore, well, maybe yes , hide somewhere in the bathroom and cover themselves with a mattress, no, well, i know, under the table or in the doorway, still in the doorway, yes , where if you just start to break down, then you will have some kind of not necessarily in a russian doorway, but well, andrei vladimirovich, what technologies

are used today to combat earthquakes, except, except for doorways, right? well, to fight, as we understand, it’s still difficult and almost impossible to deal with, but to deal with the consequences, to prepare, to be prepared for an earthquake with an unclear time , a very approximate place, well, in general , it’s possible, after all, those who died in the turkish earthquake are more than 4,000 people, bad time in the morning, more powerful, the last japanese 23,000 dead, and not from the earthquake itself, but from the tsunami flood, because they were preparing, because there was a warning 4 and a half minutes in advance, this is still important, this is panic, but the japanese public is ready, it is ready ,

ready for this signal, they roughly know what to do, and the openings, japanese strong openings, under the table, some manage to escape, and well, running away, they find themselves there under the waves of this very tsunami wave, but that’s another story, nevertheless , notification of the ministry of emergency situations, these are important circumstances, and training from an early age, from kindergarten, what to do in such cases, how to escape, well, you know, there are seven or eight strikes,

well, we’ll talk about possible methods later, fast, fast, forecasts, hourly, minute, more about this, i want to understand, well we often, of course, today you already said, we hear the phrase seismic danger zone, i just can’t understand why people live there at all, that is, we can predict the place, why there are zones there, this is a very interesting question, although , i would like to say that to different countries, in what? our country is very lucky that, despite our vast territory , we have very few seismic zones; our strongest

seismic zone is kamchatka, because it is located exactly on this plate boundary, at the boundary between two plates, where one plate approaches. directly on the other, this is the area near lake baikal, this is altai, a fault or whatever fault there is, there are also plates, blocks, and the caucasus, and the caucasus, of course, to a lesser extent than transbaikalia and especially kamchatka, is it africa pushing us or who here, well, there are many different people there, you asked very correctly about how these slabs are generally arranged, the fact is that they are arranged hierarchically, this does not mean that there is simply a certain number of large slabs,

they float, that’s right, they float in the asthanosphere, these plates make up the lithosphere, these are such large blocks, they float in such a viscous-plastic asthanosphere, they bump into each other, these faults between the plates are there, but it must be said that the plates themselves are also a heterogeneous thing, there are faults, lineaments , which andrei vladimirovich spoke about, they create a hierarchy of blocks of lower rank, yes, but they also move inside the slab already, therefore, returning to your question, construction, for example, we can

to argue, as you say, why the hell did people even settle in this kamchatka, but they had reasons, there are geopolitical reasons and economic reasons to live there, so well, at least it’s also dangerous, not many people live either, but they live because that life should not stop, but if we take some developed countries of the west and east, for example, japan, it is all like kamchatka, there is no other land there. you can't go to another part of japan, you will always be in the danger zone now, or the west

the united states of america, the west, the pacific coast of south america, even andrei vladimirovich, you see, was in an earthquake, there, because there it is a normal phenomenon, therefore it is possible and necessary to defeat an earthquake by adapting our life and developing technologies, scientific research into occupant-resistant construction to the level we live in the sense of rain, sun, snow, but life doesn’t stop because it started to rain, in moscow or say, in st. petersburg it started to rain, we live, we put on a raincoat, we take an umbrella there, we sit in car or in the subway, that’s also humanity’s wounds... it’s too late, if it develops in a reasonable, creative direction,

the earthquake will win, but i doubt that this will happen in 10 years, it’s too short, we ’ll discuss this later, but after the advertisement , advertising on ntv, in a store at a bus stop, at a beauty contest, you might fall in love with a guy, listen, you, young man, where today artists are looking for their other halves, i saw a beautiful girl, thank you, not mine, thank you, dima jumped, applauded, periodically shouted rostov, how to impress idol, i went up to her and said, who are you, this is my favorite shirt, you will return it to me , is it worth holding out on kissing, no one directly forced, forced, in 40 minutes i met and what is the partner window? let's let iri solttukova count the window? have we agreed yet? we still don’t understand how such a woman could fall in love.

yes, i don’t understand it myself. love is still evil, and the goats are taking advantage of it, the stars have aligned, he says, just try to say, no, i ’ll kill you now, we’re just very lucky, the stars have aligned, on sunday immediately after the super season you are super on ntv, there is a program on the air, we are science, science and we are a program about how science will change our lives in the next 10 years, in 10 years, science will defeat the earthquake, our expert believes in it , professor kapustin never stopped trying to predict future earthquakes. in 1969, unusual animal behavior was observed in a chinese zoo. the tiger was depressed, the pandas howled, the yaks refused food, and the turtles ran around like clockwork. zoo employees called the city management, residents were warned. at noon there was an earthquake. in 1975

, an unusual rise in water in wells was noticed in haihchen and many weak earthquakes were recorded. the alarm was announced, evacuation was announced, people were taken out of their houses into the streets. five hours later, an earthquake with a magnitude of more than seven occurred. the city was destroyed, but there were almost no casualties. several successful predictions have been made from observations of seismic waves. based on the change in speed, it was possible to predict an earthquake. change detected in california magnetic field, tiltmeters showed that the earth's surface is shifting. a day later there was an earthquake with a magnitude above five. the earthquake in japan that caused the fukushima accident was predicted by the warning system a minute before the main shock. well,

gradually we will learn. predicts an earthquake, i hope that we will learn, but yuri yuevich, indeed, for example, in the soviet union there was such a project - the kola superdeep, for studying the earth’s crust, probably, plates, including, possibly also tried to predict an earthquake, but unfortunately, now this project has been frozen, so what methods of predicting earthquakes may appear in the next 10 years, maybe unfreeze again, let's unfreeze the kola deep, well, i don’t think that the kola deep... could help us earthquake prediction, there were other tasks, deep drilling, well, the structure, that means, the slabs, yes, of granites that were drilled and so on, but i think that here , as always, the science of sciences, the queen of sciences, astronomy, will come to our aid, because we must attach this thin film, you must understand that the bark is several tens of kilometers with a radius

of the earth, 6,300, this is just, this is less than a percentage, well, if you compare it with an apple, then this is the peel, it’s even thinner , yes, this is a percentage of the size of the earth, yes, and this thin film, it is in motion, as my colleagues told me, the plates move, they rub, and so the plates fit into this film, i think, how- then no, they are thin, thin, so they rub each other oh my friend, they creep up, they fall through, the oceanic plate crawls under the continental plate. mountains rise up, then breakdowns occur somewhere, like about this stick that andrei vladimirovich talked about there, but there is space, in space there are cosmic sources, radio sources, very distant, which we can tie to our entire surface with an accuracy of 1 mm, that is we can now digitize this crust, digitize our entire chicken by movement, we can use artificial intelligence, a huge amount

new data, there are, of course, millions of parameters. we will be able to predict when this breakdown will happen, that is, like oh, let's go, we saw it from the moon, of course , there are a lot of all sorts of new, fundamentally new devices for measuring the upper layer, which means the crust, but the main thing is astronomers, they will be able to allow you to measure - this means the movement of continental clites, with the highest accuracy, i know, we will build a base on the moon. let's put these telescopes there and observe the earth, i can, in principle , depict it, which was clear, please, yes, no, on the moon, let it be too, we meet with this precision every day, with precision, exactly, yes, as far as you use navigation on your phone, this is ours, well,

a little crooked. this is ours here - the earth, here, convective movement, which rises hotly up, rises, falls down, and this leads to movement this this. on the surface, imagine porridge, and a frozen film, there it is , just a little bit between it, foam on the semolina porridge, i understand, i always thought by the way that these plates, they seem to be much wider, yes, and very far in space, billions of light years away, there are radio sources, quasars, if we install radio telescopes - on these plates, observing quasars, we will observe, then by attaching a telescope to a telescope, we can move plates... one relative to the other, plus or minus 1 mm, and like one telescope went to another, yes, so one plate, here it creeps, let’s say, an oceanic plate under the plate that has reared up here, this means a continental plate, and we can

up to a millimeter each, determine every movement, predict when a breakdown and collapse will occur, well, we need the whole earth, and we need to install the belts like this. there are telescopes, we just have to wait a little bit, 10 years, such systems will work for our planet, but i just want to understand one thing, for example, we will install telescopes for ourselves, i don’t know, turkey will install them for itself, america for itself, we need them connect the network, it must be a single network, absolutely, which, absolutely correctly, is a network that will give, according to quasars, a distant beard source, absolute binding all ours, that we are all countries among ourselves. i believe, 10 years, let's be optimistic in the end, no, i believe in our scientists, we always share, and then what methods of preventing earthquakes may appear in the next 10 years, with predictions, everything seems to be fine so far, how

i understand, regarding prevention, as prevention, let’s start with the fact that we must separate natural earthquakes, which are associated, one might say, with the breathing of the earth, but yes, that’s it. always, but there are, man-made, man-made, yes, people themselves do, for example, we all haven’t mentioned this yet, the bochat earthquake, the neftegorsk earthquake, these are those earthquakes that were caused by the fact that a person begins to extract minerals, begins to change the stresses that have accumulated in the earth, and the earth reacts, once again we were digging for something, yes we were digging, digging up bochatsky. novokuznetsk says that it is a system-resistant construction, but we have already dug such large holes or made quarries that these stresses are beginning to change there, and this is all over the world is it happening, or is it just us who were digging like this, or the whole world, i just think, in america they extract

shale oil, they explode there all the time, very large seismicity appeared there, and seismicity appeared from these internal ruptures, but nothing about they don’t think so, they are all extracting their shale oil there, so well, oil is needed. everyone needs to carry nothing that they have, but soon half the floors will collapse, well, not the floor , it’s the cities that are unlikely to collapse, and that’s why we see that seismicity appears and earthquakes large earthquakes begin to appear and there are more earthquakes, but people began to create them themselves, not so that they never existed, if we are talking about the fact that the earth itself moved, evolved, then they probably have about the same number of them left, so if we we say that man ... i agree, i would like to strengthen and add to the fear, in addition to mining, earthquakes

do not necessarily occur during the extraction of shale oil, quarries, filling reservoirs, filling reservoirs during the construction of large... hydropower structures, nodes, now they have made a dam, filled it with water, as soon as you start filling this bath, but the bath is filled with a large quantity, volume, this is a large load on the earthly material, it is heavy, heavy, it begins to deform, immediately you get a swarm of the sea, thousands, not very strong earthquakes, not very strong, but there are many of them, they can... the release of so-called dams occurs approximately, we do not extract shale oil, this is called rational

environmental management, we must understand how our planet lives, how it evolves our earth's crust, how it changes, how the pressure changes, what we do. of course, this is as usual, we understand that if we hit hard, it will break, if we hit little by little, then it shouldn’t break, or for example, we see that... we see that we are already very close we are coming to this border that will soon break, so maybe we need to stop at this moment, create the correct geometry, okay, okay, then i have an unexpected question, for our guests, optimists and skeptics, from a completely different point of view let's go to the side, in the press, and on our program we touched on the topic of climate weapons, what do you think, is it generally possible for weapons to appear that can cause an earthquake at a specific point? no.

my answer is no, why, we can’t purposefully dig something there , send waves, radio waves, the released power is about 50-100 megatons, it’s impossible to blow up such a thing underground unnoticed, unnoticed, the goal itself is unnoticed, but quietly add tension, shake, quietly, until it accumulates, do not accumulates and the stick won’t stop, as you know, you’ve probably flown on airplanes and seen a turbine that... screams, here you are, it’s humming incredibly, no one is trying to shout over it, so you compare, we want to explode such a small scream shout over this turbine that is screaming, we just can’t hear each other, this is the same, you are the impact you want to set, it is too small to create any, yes, i would like this idea with the weapons you have sought, we can transform for peaceful purposes.

namely, what is an earthquake, it is a release of stress, which means that these plates move, blocks move, deformations occur , stress accumulates, which means stress accumulates, which is static, but at some point during the earthquake, they turn into dynamic, that is in other words, potential energy is processed into... we can use it, and for what, look, the energy can be removed, released through one strong earthquake that will destroy there, what the hell, or a lot of weak ones, these weak earthquakes are very weak, which are sometimes insensitive to people and are called creep, so if we

learned not to use weapons, because these weapons are not needed there, even frankly speaking, we would learn to relieve tension by transforming these stresses artificially into creep, then we would defeat these earthquakes, it would be great if there was not one big one, but many small ones, yes, but this would require a colossal investment of money. to create these observing systems then monitoring the creep itself, well , we will look into the future with optimism, advertising on ntv, great, unique, strong. she is always there, your country, your

home, your family, the traditions of your people, together, on the tv channel unknown russia, and russia in a new way, soon on all operators in the country. she sang: i’m at your feet and woke up as a star, this is a killer acquaintance of show business, you’ll just be naked, well , somehow she just shocked me so much, how cunningly he always quarreled with natalya vlasova and his best friend elena vaenga. she called me and said: i’m sorry, natakha, the toad strangled me, why did the star’s only husband, this is my wedding, leave her after 20 years of marriage, i cried for 2 months, why? natalya vlasova doesn’t want to know her own father, but he’s a tyrant, he’s just a despot and

a tyrant, and what will they say to each other when they meet, i hope you don’t, he came to our studio, natalia ivlasova’s million-dollar secret, it’s just a monster some kind of thing, i don’t understand, on saturday at 21:20 on ntv, there is a program on the air, science and we program. how science will change our lives in the next 10 years. dear guests, optimists and skeptics, i have a question for you all: do you have a forecast of how likely it is that science will defeat an earthquake, yes alexey andrevich, let’s get it from you. do you have a forecast? my forecast, we, in general, yes, it will be a victory, and i more than let’s not win, we will understand and learn to control, that is, partly we, well , it is true that everything related to man-made seismicity will definitely be curbed, so although would be man-made for sure, man-made if we

we are talking about natural seismicity, then we will definitely understand it, we can make a new scientific revolution, which will allow ... to understand very well how the earth’s crust is evolving, here i would say, 70 percent, for sure, in 10 years we will learn, we will understand exactly what is happening there, in general 70% , thank you very much, i think that the main thing we must do is teach people, teach people to live, as we said today, in bad seismic weather. and most importantly, what needs to be done? all technological developments, in 10 years, or maybe a little more, should be aimed at warning, timely notification, and educating the public on how to live in these difficult weather

conditions of the life of the earth’s crust and lithospheres? as i understand it, how to live, this also includes everything, how to build, how yes , well, how to build, how to listen to - people who understand the nature of the spread of earthquakes, select the right materials, do not engage in theft and theft of these materials, that occurs in some countries, the wrong cement is installed, the wrong concrete, the wrong brand, and so on, so in many ways, victory over earthquakes , what is the probability of this happening? if we, if we are smarter, if we are more far-sighted, we will win, if we live the way we live now, no, well, on average 50%, 50%, thank you very much, yuri yurievich,

do you have a forecast, what is the probability of science defeating an earthquake in 10 years, if by victory we mean learning to predict, at least, on a non-infinite time scale , learning to live with it, then i’m sure that thanks to now such a rapid development of scientific technologies, especially space sciences, especially artificial intelligence, computer technologies, we think the same percentage as my colleague, 70%, that in 10 years the world will learn to live with it and thereby win 70 %, thanks a lot. i see one way to such a victory: learn to build so that earthquakes are not terrible, this can be done, and, as with any rule, there will be exceptions, there will be earthquakes, say, magnitudes greater than nine, where there is no

construction will not save, because by definition there is nothing living left in the intensity zone 12, but these will be very isolated and very rare phenomena, such earthquakes may happen once every half a century, my prediction is that if we give this forecast for humanity as a whole , yes, then the fact that co-resistant construction will reach such a level, i would say, 30%, but if we take some individual countries, then i would increase this percentage, because, for example, in our country, fortunately for