[000:02:35;00] dangerous weather events cause multi-billion dollar damage to the national economy, how to predict the first and minimize the second, since it is pointless to fight climate change, is it possible to adapt to them, how will autumn surprise us, why the coming winter is preparing for us all the delights of life, from which systems the west tried to disconnect us and what answer did we find when weather forecasters’ forecasts come true 100%? let's talk about this with the head of roshydromet igor

shumakhov. igorevich, this summer took third place in the history of domestic meteorological observations, this is a fire, this is also what is called one coin in the treasury of extreme events, or it just happens, third place after 2021 and 2016 in terms of temperature, and well, here again there is, but if we are talking about the asian part of our country , then yes, which we observed more than 35° and which lasted more than 5 days or more, and this is truly an extreme weather phenomenon, this year was the hottest in the history of observations in the asian part of the country, if we take the european part of the country, then in principle temperatures were close climate norms, the climate is changing, we see it, we observe these climate changes, the most important task, as

they say now: to these changes. what can we expect this winter, will it be harsh or warm, snowy or snowless, or is it too early to look that far? right now the forecasts are not too accurate in this regard. it’s too early to look that far, but nevertheless, it annually releases its own, one of its main products, this is called a forecast for the heating season, which. has accuracy 69%, this is a fairly high accuracy for such long-term forecasts, we are also among the top five hydrological services in the world, so this accuracy is 69%, this is not because we are so bad, it’s just that the science of meteorology cannot yet afford more, more accurate forecasts for such a long period, 5 months long, so what does it say anyway, as for winter, with this probability, winter will be within normal limits

in most of... the russian federation with the exception of the northern regions of the central districts, siberia, yakutia, the temperature there will be slightly below normal. winter on the territory of the russian federation will be characterized by frequent changes in the temperature regime, that is, from minus to plus, transition , frequent transition through zero, here you already have heavy snowfalls, and ice, and freezing rain, icing, fogs, in general everything the delights of life, and when we met last time, you told me that without such a large country as russia, it is very difficult to predict the weather in general in the world, but what does it look like today... well in fact, nothing has changed, this is not my statement, this is what i told you, yes , this is an objective reality that all meteorologists around the world agree with, because weather, it has no boundaries on this planet, and it is impossible to predict within one

specific country, i don’t know what to do outside of it is impossible, well, you see, geopolitics has seriously deteriorated, but we are being cut off from everywhere, they are trying, that’s right, to ignore us, as is fashionable now, that’s true, but we are above all... despite that's all, these are the disadvantages that you are talking about now, with on our part, we have not canceled any of our international obligations within the framework of hydrometeorological activities and are trying to get out of the situation when we are disconnected from some sources of information and it all works out quite successfully, do they often try to disconnect us? well, this happened more often last year, now they’ve probably already disconnected from everything they wanted and everything they could. reverse flow of information, which is very valuable for neighboring states, in march last year we were disconnected from

the so-called center for zonal forecasts, yeah, the area forecast center provides civil aviation with forecasts, we were informed about this three days in advance, and we understood that in three days all of our civil aviation would remain at airfields, in three nights our specialists, programmers, weather forecasters, engineers... scientists, replaced this software with our own software since march last year, all russian airlines and foreign companies flying in russia, arriving to us, use the information of the russian hydraulic center, which is no different from the information that pilots receive in other countries, at other airfields, well, the quality is not worse, it is not worse at all, it is not different at all, yeah, well, this is... here is one example, and as i understand it there are several of them, we were also were disconnected last year from the eumetsat system, these are divisions of the european satellite agency that deals with meteorological information, were disconnected from the operational mode of receiving information, every 15 minutes,

well, everything that is more than 15 minutes, it is clear that for hydrometeorology this is just statistics in you can’t use it in operational activities, we also had to work on these, here are our colleagues, i want to thank them from... from space, they help us a lot, we have already had several satellite launches this year, before the end of the year we have four or five devices will be launched, in total, our group will consist of almost a little less than twenty devices for hydrometeorological purposes, this will be enough to completely abandon the yumitsa system, tell me, what is the increase - dehydrameter for last year, i read the news that the scientific fleet is modernizing, being laid down, some are already here on slipways, some are planned to be built. yes, roshydromet has something to boast about. well, first of all, you probably heard, last year we raised the flag on a new scientific expedition vessel

called the north pole, this is an ice-resistant self-propelled platform, in fact it is a huge research station, observatory, hydromedical station, whatever you want to call it , base. yes, equipped. completely everything necessary for the life support of 35 people, the scientific staff who conduct research in the northern latitudes, in order, first of all, to obtain reliable information in order to ensure the activities of the northern sea route, the ice situation in the arctic ocean, of course, what is the value of the information that is received for the climate , to forecast ice sea conditions for navigation along the northern sea route, well, along the coast along the northern coast of the russian federation, that’s

what this station is needed for, and what it shows monitoring of the roshydromet of the northern sea route, as i understand it, such work is being carried out, since we have big plans for the northern route, the first is hydrometeorological support for navigation, ice forecasts, weather forecasts, sea forecasts, and everything that is related to calm navigation in the rather troubled places of the northern arctic ocean. and here it was developed at one time and is now being modernized. in general, no one has any particular complaints so far, the so-called severroshydromet system, yeah, it was developed on the base of our research institutions, the main base is the arctic antarctic institute of roshydromet, located in st. petersburg, which has always dealt with these issues, the second part of the work is the environmental components, yes, again with an increase in the number of ships passing through - the northern sea route. there is a risk of deterioration of the environmental situation, which, in general, naturally needs to be monitored, and

here we are modernizing our arctic observation network, well, we are trying to do this it has already been modernized as quickly as possible - more than 203 stations have already been modernized, plus eight more will be done by the end of the year, which in general are quite serious results, well , there are also plans for the next years, and these are stations both automatic and with presence. person, well, data was recently published that the coastal flood alone caused damage to the national economy of the russian federation in the amount of 7 billion rubles, but is there any foreseeable, what is called data related to the total damage caused to the country, natural phenomena, in particular for this year, well, as for the damage caused to the national economy, to citizens, of course, these figures... are read by local authorities, i would

not talk about the damage caused by dangerous natural phenomena , but the prevented damage that is provided by the hydrological service, for example, for the twenty-second year this was not calculated by us, it was calculated by other third-party organizations, the hydrometeorological service prevented and economic damage in the amount of 66.5 billion rubles, yeah, this is for the twenty-second a year for twenty-three so far. year, of course, we have not yet calculated, there is such an indicator, the justification of warnings about dangerous weather phenomena, which means that we are improving this indicator every year, and if for example, in 2000, if my memory serves me correctly, the justification of warnings about dangerous natural phenomena was 90-92%, now for the last few years it is 96%, that is, it has not changed yet, we have

some for which the accuracy is 99%. there is such a thing, but these territories are no longer a secret? it's no secret, let's take it vladivostok, it so happened that we have close to 100 % accuracy of storm warnings, yeah, we are striving for this , as for dangerous running phenomena, at the beginning of the century there were about 200 phenomena a year that caused damage, now we are... approaching 400 phenomena that cause damage. there is one more parameter here that we should not forget about and which we are working very hard on - this is the timeliness of warnings about dangerous events. and our timeliness has also been growing over the past few years. for example, the latest events in the far east and in general in the eastern part of our country, the lead time there

was from 36 hours to 6 days, at various times. from 6 days to 36 hours, yes, hours, yes, and 36 hours, well, is it a little or a lot, of course, should be assessed by specialists who are involved in the prevention of emergency situations on the ground, well, yes, if you are warned a couple of hours in advance that now some kind of squall will fall on you, yes, for example, you’ll hardly have time to react, the same far east, the last flood, when in a total of 60 buckets of water poured out per square meter, yes, that is, that’s 600 liters per square meter, well, that’s a bit much, in general, it’s really a disaster, and here the parameters for the timing looked exactly like this, and what are the trends in terms of weather forecasts, because i understand that the issue may be partly on duty, and that here we also have an indicator above 90%, but nevertheless, since you constantly hear that if something didn’t work out somewhere, then we need to burn the weather forecasters at the stake or there in public

hang, shoot, and so on. well, yes, that’s normal, when i didn’t work in this field, i also scolded meteorologists very often when i came to work here, sometimes scolding more often, but for other reasons, then as for the forecast, look, if that’s 20 years ago , at the beginning of the century, the forecast for three days had an accuracy of, say, 85-90. that is, now the forecast has such accuracy for almost 10 days, yeah, and the first day, the first second, the third day, well, in fact it’s 100%, well, if it’s a forecast from roshydromet, and if it’s a forecast from roshydromet. yes, well, third-party manufacturers, as a rule, try to use our information, but still, each information producer naturally tries to predict, here everything depends on the methods of forecasting, on the software that is used, well, if the software that