hungry for the full story we've got it for us the biggest issues get a human voice face to face with the news make us. feel. if you can. follow in welcome to cross talk i'm here all about does pakistan face the prospect of becoming a failed state the u.s. claims it is an indispensable ally and its so-called war on terror opinions on the

ground see the u.s. as part of pakistan's security problems are washington and islamabad really on the same page. and you can. see. to discuss pakistan u.s. relations i'm joined by dan kai human dubai he's the editor of the news service pakistan kakuta dot com in washington we have now was he's the director of the south asia center at the atlantic council the united states and author of crossed swords pakistan its army and wars within and in london we go to anatol lieven the chair of international relations and terrorism studies at king's college london and the author of the upcoming book pakistan a hard country and another member of our crosstalk team on the hunger all right across talk rules in effect gentlemen that means you can jump in anytime you want and until i want to go to you first hillary clinton was in islam about not long ago i had a gift five hundred million dollars for civilian projects build dams and schools

and whatnot and the pakistanis were didn't seem all that grateful expression after almost twelve billion dollars in aid since the bush administration eight of billion of that was for military but they weren't grateful so i asked maybe not even a rhetorical question what is the state of u.s. pakistani relations. well this is like a very unhappy but. ultimately inevitable narrative or at least if this marriage breaks the damage to both parties will be catastrophic. the thing is that on some issues pakistan and america do have very much the same interests on others pakistan is virtually the whole population regard their interests as very different indeed from the americans but in the wider context of what i suppose we're still doomed to call the war on

terror america simply cannot get on without pakistan this is a matter of scale in pakistan is six times the size of afghanistan or iraq it has one of the biggest and most effective armies in the world it has nuclear weapons it has a hugely asper in britain and therefore in europe. and when it comes to controlling terrorism against the west i stress against the west in the west not in afghanistan but pakistan has in fact been an indispensable and very useful ally in tackling al qaeda so america simply can't do without them even though when it comes to afghanistan and the afghan taliban pakistan continues to follow what is in effect a very different agenda down i'd like to go to you in dubai that's a very good point a different agenda i mean of course the united states and pakistan have mutual interest on a number of things but not on everything i mean a lot of people within the even the political establishment in pakistan are saying

that the united states with its policies is infringing upon the sovereignty of pakistan and it's extremely unpopular and there are charges pakistan will just go so far in dealing with the taliban within its own territory and its access to afghanistan so not a perfect relationship are far from perfect. i think i think is correct there but what the problem that pakistan and the u.s. have between them is the perception of what pakistan sees afghanistan becoming once the u.s. does leave pakistan does not obviously feel comfortable with the administrator in charge and what they're looking forward to is having a pakistan friendly government in charge which obviously denies india the space that it currently enjoys undergoes a india which pakistan sees as you know destabilizing factor as far as the pakistan security situation is concerned i think that's where the difference lies

pakistan sorry go ahead go go i was going to go i was going to go to washington should you know if it's interesting here what we heard dan just say in and i think maybe that this is where the biggest problem is is that pakistan wants to have an afghanistan and that is friendly to islamabad but can that include mr karzai because that that's the u.s. man in afghanistan i mean is that really where we have the differences can we find mutual accommodation between the two because we've heard just recently over the last week or so a pakistan and. pakistan afghanistan relationship but where does that leave mr karzai and his agenda for afghanistan and the american one. i think first of all to go back to our tolls point you this is a missile alliance between the u.s. and pakistan countries really don't have friendships they have relationships and they have interests and their relationships are based on interests so we shouldn't

really see this as a permanent relationship there will always be differences and the baggage of history of the u.s. pakistan rollercoaster relationship rarely impinges on current decisions and perceptions inside pakistan as far as afghanistan is concerned in my view pakistan could certainly live with karzai provided it sees a stable of law an entity in which the bathrooms have a much greater say that's the kind of government that they could live with because they're supposed to them that are most contiguous to the area that spark assad on the border and if the post tunes are unhappy that the northern alliance or other groups that are traditionally closer to india have a greater say than pakistan will be unhappy some of the recent signals from kabul have been quite positive i personally see this developing because karzai obviously is playing the pakistan card with both india and the united states i would let's

see how would how it develops in the next few months right gentlemen we were all talking about what kind of relationship in the future the united states and pakistan will have let's listen to secretary of state clinton when she was in islam about it and she talked about history too and it wasn't a good history let's listen to what she had to say. our partnership with pakistan goes far beyond security it is economic political educational cultural historical rooted in family ties that this misperception has persisted for so long tells us we have not done a good enough job of connecting our partnership with concrete improvement. in the lives of pakistanis and with this dialogue we are working very hard to change that perception and to deliver results that truly have the kind of sex we are seeking.

ok well let's look at some numbers right here let's look at what secretary clinton wants to change a recent gallup poll had fifty nine percent of pakistanis believe the united states was pakistan's greatest threat last august the pew research center study found that sixty four percent of pakistanis consider the u.s. as an enemy though nine percent thought washington was its partner anatole how do you get over that i mean we've been looking at the different leaks relationships between intelligence agencies politicians and you know and hillary clinton can put on a very big smile she has to because of that the maybe an inconvenient marriage as you're putting it but you know let's go a lot deeper and i think that counts a lot more do you think that you can they really can make a difference in the perception because pakistan let's face it is an anti-american country when it comes to be on the political elite. well you are right and i think it will be very very difficult to shift those basic perceptions but i think a couple of points need to be made the first is that being emotionally

hostile to america doesn't mean supporting either or an islamist revolution inside pakistan which would destroy the country or supporting pakistani state actions against america which would bring down an american reprisal which would also destroy the country so that you know in the end most pakistanis have whatever their feelings about america and ultimately fairly sensible attitude towards their own interests and the threats to those interests but the second thing is that the u.s. could do a lot more clinton is promising to do a lot more but we have to see what will happen in terms of making clear a release to more ordinary pakistanis that american aid does something to help them because over the years the problem is that the money coming in from america has vanished into the state system much of it has gone to the armed forces ordinary

people have seen no results at all a few really major successful infrastructure projects for example would you know show the population that they gain something from america and they will lose something if there is a breach with america but i have to say that this will only affect opinion to say pretty much at the margins and the american feeling is very deep rooted binah again if i can go to you in dubai i mean this is not really one of the other big problems here is that the the political and military security elites in pakistan have this amazing balance where they have to look at their foreign policy and they have to look at the population in a lot of things are going wrong in pakistan right now their unemployment rate infrastructure issues of maybe they view that's what the five hundred million dollars is for we'll see how it's spent but i mean pakistan is not a very healthy state right now in the political lead has to look. brought in it has to look at its local population at the same time and make some very hard choices i think the problem we have is that we've got a completely incompetent and corrupt government in charge frankly doesn't really

know isn't really capable or has the will to solve these crisis which pakistanis face today which includes the electricity crisis that they have the power shortages we've got the water crisis these days we've got sugar you know you name it and there is a crisis about it in pakistan and the government seems to be embroiled in non-issues you know infighting between the opposition and the government itself and different factions so that's that's where you know it doesn't really affect the pakistanis whatever aid that the u.s. comes up with in fact you know when you look at the kerry lugar bill the conditions that came up with you know they were you know the nation itself took it as a you know humiliation basically because the kind of conditions and the language that were used in that bill didn't really have the actually was contra factor in getting the sort of favorable opinion within the pakistanis that the u.s. is after and aid itself will not change anything unless it actually transforms into

you know some way of solving these problems that you know the people face on a day to day basis as it stands all of the money disappears as. you know correctly said disappears into the state system and the you know the corrupt machinery and doesn't really trickle down to the to the masses because that's where that's where the problem is i believe all right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on pakistan say with r.t. . to be soo much brighter. moon and sun from suns to.

star totty don't come. every month we give you the future we hope you understand how to get there and what tomorrow brings the best in science and technology from across russia and around the world join your knowledge update on our jeep. if you. want to. welcome our new cross talk i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the u.s. pakistan relationship and its role in the so-called war on terror. but

before it let's see what russians think about the situation in the region the u.s. war on terror has reached into pakistan since then days and over again is that in two thousand and one and today as officials say is fundamental to have been made to u.s. success in afghanistan however there was considerable skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the u.s. and made their presence across the region according to a world public opinion poll sixty three percent of russians believe that most of the want nato forces to leave the country and only eight percent thing the locals want nato forces to me peter ok should go back to you in washington i mean there's the u.s. hopes in one way one fashion or another that the pakistani this is what they're the pakistanis what they're supposed to do in the deal. is to bring the taliban to the negotiating table in one form or another hopefully not have to deal with them directly they're the intermediary but in

a broader picture and i think i want to address this to everyone here and this is my own opinion all across the region everyone's just watching really waiting waiting for some kind of strategic withdrawal defeat of the united states be it. in iraq if the if the state were to not be a solid is the americans at holby when there is hard to believe there always are already talking about leaving afghanistan i mean the united states is talking about the future and for americans the future comes real soon in the region it's a lot more long term so how can we be talking about a negotiated peace when at the same time the obama administration are enormous pressure is being pressured to actually leave the region and leave it in not on the same level of where troops are and security forces are just a lowered and move back how can you do both at the same time. well i think you have to be careful not to repeat the mistakes of the past and that is to have a very precipitate would draw which is what has informed

a lot of the cajun as and the caution on the part of the pakistanis that as happened after the the the soviet withdrawal from afghanistan that the americans after having helped pakistan with the majority in an installed government in kabul basically took off in the middle of the night. that is unlikely to happen this time i think another thing that one needs to be careful about is that pakistan may or may not have some kind of a relationship with the taliban but pakistan has never historically been able to control the taliban. when they were in power initially or when they're out of power and and seeking refuge in distant parts of the border region the third thing is that the majority of people inside pakistan do not favor at all about kind of government inside pakistan itself and it's highly unlikely that they would support

any kind of a taliban dominated government in afghanistan because of its effects on pakistan so i think the last one is very critical within the last year the pakistani population has supported this a billion government and the military in mounting a huge campaign against the militancy against the insurgency because they do not want this kind of government inside pakistan the way they treat women etc so i think that that needs to be understood as to how pakistan will either help or hinder some kind of an orderly military drawdown of the united states ok well look you can only qually in politically i think you go to a point at which point and nato needs to remain ok well you get things going where you want. ok let's take a look at nato his perspective on all of this on what how important to afghanistan in afghanistan is and about withdrawal let's listen to what the head of nato had to

say has to say. we cannot leave afghanistan. if we were to leave. afghanistan before we have finished our job then the taliban would just return to afghanistan and create again a safe haven for international terrorism terrorists could easily spread from afghanistan through central asia and further afghanistan could once again serve as a launch pad for terrorist attacks against north america and europe. ok and i'm the eternal pessimist i'm afraid i mean the what the head of nato had to say right there is going to happen i believe because it's all you know policy on afghanistan is not being made in kabul it's being made in washington and it's all

about not foreign policy it's about politics ok obama's choices are very limited right now could we see the repeat of history. well yes i think so but i have to say i mean first on such of nato i mean nato is already leaving i mean you have this again saying we we are in afghanistan what date what was it what do you why do you know what's the we now know what's the we can't solve it you know what it is in afghanistan effectively as a coalition of the willing as usual mostly britain and america and britain by now i mean the rest are doing the minimum possible to maintain a relationship with the united states which keeps the united states in europe which they still regard as essential in a way which some of them will candidly admitted private this is not really about afghanistan at all it's all about european countries believing that they still depend on american security terms and therefore have to help america but as you say

in the end the decisions will be made in washington and the question for obama will be the balance between on the one hand the growing unpopularity and seeming hopelessness of the war but on the other hand of course the aid the damage to his administration which would come from the appearance or the reality of an obvious defeat and secondly the fact that while the and as a senior american general said to me not long ago while the american armed forces may not know what they're fighting for in afghanistan they know what they're fighting against and what they're fighting against is once again the appearance of defeat they are desperate not to repeat the experience of the at them from that point of view and my sense is that the american armed forces will be willing to fight on for a very long time to avoid that perception and that they may well be able to drag the administration with them willy nilly. at least until the point comes where

they believe either that the the karzai administration or more properly the afghan national army can fight shall we say to the extent that the. the regime in the army that the soviets left behind were able to fight actually in many ways very successfully after nine hundred eighty nine all right gentlemen to be very provocative right here the blog sphere is a blaze with speculation it seeping into some of the mainstream if the relationship between pakistan and the united states does not work out the way washington wants there are people talking already that a made pakistan could be next on the list because of the safe havens i mean clinton made it she was almost nine in her commentary about bin laden being in pakistan dan if i can go to you if it doesn't go all right because everything's going wrong now . the pakistanis are again there's a public face there but there's a lot of forces in the security forces that are just going to let it just kind of boil along to see what who's going to make who's going to blink first and it's

probably going to be the americans so therefore it should they be keeping an eye out too because when united states has shown quite a bit of willingness for aggressive war but never being able to find a way out go ahead. i think that's what the us is looking for now i mean the writing has been on the wall in of going to sun for the past year or so one control territory you know the never controlled the larger very the then the do right now so i don't think there's any way that the u.s. can actually take the war into pakistan apart sun has has actually has a proper army box on there actually a nuclear state that has you know has a proper air force i don't think there's any way the u.s. could be looking to take the war into pakistan what they can do and in fact what they have been doing with the help of the indians is it continued to destabilize pakistan through through afghanistan which which has been the case for the past year or so whether you look at fatah or you look at stan i think the only thing left to do for the u.s. now is this has this probably will end and up like you know we have they should

really packing up the bags and you know looking for an exit. son needs to do right now it's to work with china work with the regional powers such as iran with saudi arabia and in trying to come up with. you know preparing itself for afghanistan which is you know after us basically and you know how they're going to pick up the pieces and make it work then well you're close to my heart because that's been my theme for a very long time now if i go back to washington. again there are people are saying that you know the root of all this problem the safe havens the money gets into pakistan the training is there you know you can go hit in the or back in hide i mean that really annoys the united states i mean because you know if you want victory in afghanistan as americans understand it or the mcchrystal like could betray us like you know then give us the tools and we have to go in there and do it and again that is where you can go i mean it's hopeless unless you can go in there

and go to those safe havens and start wiping it out of course you did kill a lot of civilians and the drones and everything else i mean you know isn't that what the military is going to be saying look this is a hopeless thing unless you can let us do what we really need to do in that but that's taboo right now. well pakistan in just the border region is also a huge country and if the americans were unable to successfully fight the taliban inside of one assad where they have a pretty powerful presence how are they going to be able to attack the border regions the fata region inside pakistan successfully given all the the factors that have been mentioned earlier on this program that pakistan has an air force an army and also has nuclear weapons and you certainly cannot remove pakistan from its yagur feet it will always be where it is between afghanistan and india and and on the commanding heights of the gulf so the u.s. needs to look at this very carefully before it goes down this very dangerous spot

of trying to save itself by provoking some kind of a military conflict with pakistan all right i think this is also likely ok fear and i slide back because we're almost run out of time you want to finish you want to have a last word anatole go ahead. i just want to back up sugar and say that actually most of the american soldiers i know do recognize the appalling dangers of a direct attack on pakistan i think there are two circumstances in which this would happen the first if that was if they really had actionable intelligence concerning bin laden and zawahiri then i think they would launch a rate to get them the second is if of course there's a serious terrorist attack on the united are i knew i knew someone was going to have to jump in here and i talked to john here many thanks to my guest today dubai london and washington and thanks more viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember process. and you can see.

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