upper level of this range in the markets is expecting the results of the third quarter all corporate news from the american american market first of all and what i hear from clients this is a growing concern that these results will be bad. and that's all the business now but you can always find most stories on our website that's called slash it's.

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when the new season is in. we need something really crucial when you want to get down to the. special coverage. just the latest news from the global policy forum line. special guests discussions on the state security and stability of the present day world. eleven thirty pm in the russian capital thanks for being with us here on our t.v.'s in your headlines new details emerge after russian pilots managed to crash land a crippled passenger jet in the republic of komi on tuesday all eighty one people

aboard the tupelo one five four had a miraculous escape when the plane overshot a remote area strip and came to rest in the middle of a forest. u.s. army slams a former sergeant for planting grenades in the cars of a rockies out check points just for fun he filmed himself and the reaction of drivers and posted it all on you tube. and the u.k. announces it will carry out an independent review of its extradition laws to keep it from being sent abroad for trial with little or no proof of their guilt overhauls are expected to focus on the treaty with the u.s. as campaigners say it's biased against britain. up next is the world about to experience a double dip recession some insiders would seem to think so the debate coming up on peter coming up next here on r t in peter lavelle's crosstalk. hungry for the full story we've got it for. the biggest issues get a human voice face to face with the news makers.

and. hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle when it comes to the global recession three letters say it all deb u l n u economic recovery in the developed world is sluggish at best and there are fears of a double dip recession hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent to stimulate economies why hasn't it worked. keep. going to gust the state of the global economy i'm joined by martin henniker in hong kong he's an associate director at the tike group in frankfurt we go to william endo economic researcher and the author of the new book gods of money wall street and the death of the american century and in boston we go to peter cohen he's the

president of peter cowen and associates and author of capital rising how capital flows are changing business systems all over the world and another member of our cross talk team you know on the hunger martin if i can go to you first in hong kong you've got three letters w. l. and you pick one and why. none of them i'm very common is in the western countries they have never been they have never been in any assad's offer of calgary they've been strong trillions of dollars at the problem if you give me trillions of dollars i can produce a few more cars and rember my g.d.p. figure. to some extent of course but if it's just all financed by debt that it's going to hyperbolic out of control exponentially that doesn't mean anything at all the us isn't even in a recession it's more in a depression already now and the real question in our war really is is this depression going to lead to hyperinflation or is it going to lead to a different nation or a collapse of the system like you saw in nine hundred twenty nine in an hour we'll

it's going to be i've been flaking because the governments in the west we have had many many warnings of there's even a chinese rating agencies who are basically supported by the government and i was saying the u.s. is insolvent and faces benghazi so we're not particularly optimistic on the west ok martin are going to stay with you real quick here is there any letter in the alphabet you would choose. do you know russians the straight guy and it's straight it's a straight down di and as not been any bond sebag basically the big problem is the best and is they have been d.m. best realizing that productive industry has gone to the east and gandhi's especially to china even long before they put us in a frenzy krises you could see it coming because it was i saw the industry as asian and the house of cards a bit on bad what happened in two thousand and eight basically the rest and banking system went bankrupt the banks were all as from collapse they have admitted in germany and the u.k. and the us they have all admitted that there are us and then some guys that said

that if your days away from allows in the u.k. they actually said they were all as before they wanted to close the case machines from the banking system so in order to prevent this banking system from collapsing what they did is governments bad all the banks in the process the governments of any even higher in international beverage is now the problem to solve and go on but it is the biggest bob in history now if you say. here over and balance if i could jump in you william you've been on the program before and i have a pretty good idea what you think about these things can you be more pessimistic than martin well i think i can be equally especially mystic i think a lot of that describes the situation in the united states certainly use the letter d. unlike the great depression in the thirty's there is no leeway in terms of federal debt the federal government has just maxed out on its on its credit card to china to japan and other countries. now they're in

a situation where even the generals are warning against the overindebtedness of of the united states as a national security issue i want to get french and i want to get back to that issue a little bit later if i go to you peter are you going to be a little optimism here. absolutely i think they're both have very interesting theories that as a citizen of the united states i'm just not seeing it what i'm seeing is that we've had three quarters in a row of positive g.d.p. growth where we're forecasting very slow economic growth of about one to one point four percent for the rest of the year in the bond market and the real problem here is that we've lost eight point four million jobs since december two thousand and seven and what we're not getting is enough new jobs we need about three hundred thousand jobs a month in order to revive the economy and my basic theme is that america has a great fundamental strength which is the ability to commercialize ideas

intellectual property and we saw that really created lots of jobs in the sixty's seventy's eighty's and ninety's we had a las decade george w. bush and now we have an opportunity to revive that innovation engine and i hear yes if i didn't play here i think i did with. days are gone in the united states everything has been outsourced mentioned at the beginning to asia and to other countries even that the jobs that are being created in the united states are call center jobs because the wages in india have become too high for call centers i mean that gives you an idea like this and i appreciate i understand what you're saying but i think i think really it is a right here you go first and we're going to go to martin peter go ahead. ok what i see going on is that i talk to a lot of venture capitalists i'm a venture capitalist myself and i see them investing in start up companies now what i think is missing is a technology that will unleash corporate spending corporations in the u.s.

have accumulated one point four trillion in cash that they're just sitting on because they haven't found a good place to invest it so what i'm looking at is trying to get a new technology on the order of the internet or many computers or or p.c.'s that will unleash you weigh. of investment by companies and that will create lots of jobs now that. you don't do. anywhere else i want martin to jump in here go right. martin let's follow up on what peter just said i mean why maybe he's right maybe could be technology based but why would it happen in the united states why don't you just have the same investments in in a healthy economy as well that are growing. so you can do the same thing we do is there go ahead. yes exactly i mean most of the asian countries and some other emerging market countries are there far far lower back there still have lower cost and then a lot of that knowledge is moving also to china to even big big u.s. motivation a company you saw is really only a financial bubble

a property bubble and then some military left their base an intern ited states are just adding on whatever i wanted to jump in there early are really a mention of the job growth maybe cause and the jobs there actually for me as a matter of fact the fastest growing for exports right now of the united states is sheep and then you're a neon and shellfish so what you can tell from this is that it's obvious i mean on the on the positive side result without laughing actually evolved on the positive side is so and there's actually a statistic that in the united states that that can help because they do have a lot of agricultural land we have seen agriculture prices to go up and china is importing a lot more of their stuff there in important gone from the united states but that's where you see the only sector actually that has some good prospects in the united states apart from that run really they're optimistic and again you know we see the other economies as much better but one other question just a follow up to two peter i just wonder if you go to boston university peter if i

may ask you that. no i didn't i thought there about i didn't go to boston university but i went to mit and mit is responsible for an awful lot of new jobs a lot of innovation you know the world wide web came from tim berners lee is a professor at mit so i mean i think that person what we are missing is so they have the owner of the undergraduate class at mit today is not u.s. born what percentage of the undergraduate i'm sorry gentlemen i don't know you know i think he's just been here i mean the last week a group there was a big con fab of economists in italy and i think it's an annual event here and there was a lot of pessimism in many of them walked away from this comment saying one in one in three is one in three chance will be a double dip but some of the really bigger names were saying that they were more certain of that and that we keep hearing the same to the u.s. government and the european union they have they don't have any tools left in their box ok to fix these problems here there's no there are no more bullets left i think

is what was being said if i could go to you martin what can they do i mean if they've tried everything fiscally monetary really i mean are we really that way in a way that we cannot dig our way out of this because it's an l. ok we just have to learn to live with fewer things we have to learn to live poorer i would be very frank with you this kind of lifestyle that we've had in the twentieth century early twentieth century is over at least for the west. yes and i don't think even it's an m.s.i. thing we have we have just the worst is still ahead of us in the western countries because what i just mentioned earlier and two dozen a the bad or the bangs and the bankrupt the government in the process saw in two thousand and ten you have the rico government's going bank which is actually in this case this thousand european countries and europe has mostly the same problems as the united states those going banga banga stronger countries better the weaker countries now the next thing that's going to happen is a stronger countries go bankrupt and then you have some form of of one crash or.

one two of what i've been inflation then you can start a new is a new currency or you have some form of bankruptcy reorganization to get rid of this kind of bad to start a new about until and unless that happens redone really invest in in those areas and one other thing create. peter before if you're entitled to the boston university actually there's one economics professor at the boston university richard actually hold in quite high regard is name is the laurence kotlikoff and he has written. about the fiscal gap of the united states because that's much more important than the nation or dead today we're talking about because the fiscal gap actually includes all of those unfunded liabilities of social security medicare and so on that the united states have and that figure is fifteen times larger than the national debt it's two hundred two trillion a us dollar that's absolutely staggering figure so in some way there's going to be some kind of almost some debt before the has to happen and then he also published a report saying is the united states bankrupt and that was even in the federal

reserve bank always under louis a reviewer so definitely what i would recommend be to look this up this isn't too far from you in boston and he actually points the finger of what's the real problem you know you can trust the short term get a piece of this in their manipulator as are the unemployment figures you know i mean it's real unemployment is twenty two percent they change the way they did it in one thousand nine hundred four they don't collen anyone anymore was given up looking for a dog the schools in fla. you know so the official in the area on one end of the growing before me for me joey but continue to go to a short break and then we'll continue our discussion on the double dip stay with r.t. . if you. want . to live in a country that don't understand that there's more violence in the streets of this

country than there are in the streets in afghanistan or baghdad. one of the spring. breaks or. as a. crowd gathers roam in the. streets of the. wealthy british. holds. on to the. markets why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy in these kinds of reports. every month we give you the future we

help you understand how to get there and what to bring the best in science and technology from across russia and around the world acknowledging update on our jeep . and. welcome back to crosstalk i'm here about to remind you we're talking about the possibility of a double dip recession. but before let's see what russians think about the global crisis what shape will the growth line take what's led oh we'll define the recession w. l. or he have to show some limited growth the world's major economies remain in danger

of slipping back into another recession then the other agency recently asked russians what they think about their country's economic recovery twenty five percent of respondents said russia is emerging from the crisis period put a two percent believe recover it is on his way and another nineteen percent believe this it will at least not worsen however twenty four percent believe the crisis will be but the overall trend is optimistic and russia's economic expectations are returning to pre-crisis levels. peter i'd like to go to you in boston i mean as an investor you have a vested interest in all of this here what should what should the current administration do in the united states and what should the europeans be doing because i mean have they done it right i mean a lot of people are very very worried about money is there being people very skittish now about investing i mean it's extraordinary that banks became weighted

so much money and profits when the rest of the economy is is really got going into the gutter what should the decision makers be doing now in europe in the united states. well i think what's needed right now is a bigger stimulus package i mean they passed an eight hundred billion dollars stimulus package last year they should have passed a one point two trillion dollars stimulus package just because of the enormity of the downturn that the administration inherited you know it's clearly on the order of what happened during the great depression and the mistake they made back then was trying to balance the budget too soon we're already getting into this kind of talk now frankly the administration has not done a good enough job of of forcefully defending its position and it's trying to sort of square the circle too much politically and as a result it's going to lose a lot of ground in the midterm elections so right now you're not going to see a lot of changes in policy you're going to see some extensions of an r. and d.

tax credit little tweaks here and there that can pass politically you're not going to see the kind of scale of intervention that i think you really need to boost the economy i think the basic idea is that you need to prime the pump of economic activity in the private sector and i think that's the idea of stimulus is that you get some economic activity going you get consumer spending that increases demand increases hiring and that kind of creates a virtuous cycle of growth ok all the really what we need and i was really just one more thing to really any of. this asked a question for everybody here i mean can can any can we keep her going into debt to try to solve this crisis i mean how much more low we're going to go and yet i mean what is by two thousand and thirty what is it going to be one hundred twenty percent of g.d.p. william go ahead i mean i love i mean we're helping all she handled it can we bet we're going to bankrupt ourselves in the process go ahead will yeah well this is not a question of theoretically the federal government the united states can go into indebtedness

as long as the world is stupid enough to keep buying the government bonds but those days are coming to a close i think fairly soon the problem is it's not a question of four hundred billion dollars plus or minus. the stimulus is just like water going down the bathtub it's look they stop a housing stimulus in april and in may the worst housing news starts crash took place in decades and it's an economy being held together by artificial life support because seven financial institutions in new york the gods of money as i call them in my new book. in wall street they have looted and leached the anything healthy left in the american economy over the last thirty years or a century since the gold dollar decoupling in seventy one and you have as a result of that. the chance was missed in two thousand and seven had had the government unite in the united states and the treasury not been controlled by

goldman sachs and wall street as it was or timothy geithner in the new york fed and now in the u.s. treasury. if you would out a sensible intelligent government concerned about the nation's welfare they would have nationalized five to seven of those institutions immediately and done what sweden did in the early ninety's with a secure room good bank bad bank a model that was considered anathema it was called socialist by henry paulson the treasury secretary at the time and as a result trillions of dollars of taxpayer money went to bail out the wall street friends of goldman sachs henry paulson and not only that the federal reserve ben bernanke he refuses to say what he has done what the federal reserve has done with its money creation it's over the top now. mark mentioned the these statistics from from this boston professor about the unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare and so forth it's just. the banks have been looted the

country sucked up to the bone and there is no impulse there is no internet this is going to fix this one the united states is a basket case economy europe is less so because. still germans still make the best cars in the western world in the world buys those cars in the steel and other industry is still intact united states has outsourced everything including its brains to the rest of the world and lives as a service economy and it's back ok martin i mean what do we do now i mean you and william painted a very very depressing picture here is there any way out there is there a solution or just suck it up. i mean i totally agree this is a basically everything william said on the united states although i disagree a bit on europe because i think. germany can bail out the rest of your below and that sucked into the mind of europe and germany is the government that even is now and the deficit are also knowledge in all time record and germany has it's already

its own. trouble to meet the obligations on the ordination of and then there are mind of europe basically the industry looks more or less the same as as it does in the united states and the debt ratios are also close to what the united states is in the u.k. they say so and then in terms of how or how you are pad the situation no we are not particularly optimistic and beyond really politicians ees i mean again i mentioned i mean no one really actually said is he should have probably let a lot of those banks fail i mean many of the wall street's bangs that andrea bangs at the scene as they just did a visit money and if they if they get it wrong they get bad by the taxpayer if they get it right they just take it out as a bonus quickly enough so that when later on so are things done so are they there to get the taxpayer money again so that was the big problem but now really i don't really see an easy fix was a solution even from the federal reserve if you bring more money of a have more power it's not going to work because ireland greenspan even alan

greenspan even recommended home on us before the barber came on to take all of these. mortgages the federal reserve made it much much worse so i'd best they're very incompetent or worse they actually part of these banks that have sucked the u.s. dry if you ones are so we don't see a solution we just say investment wise stay out of the u.s. stay out of any u.s. bonds always us a lot of you will put your money gold asia and some other commodities ok. so. i think what we have to look at is a global picture and the magnet for industrial dynamism. an infrastructure investment in the world right now all the countries of your asia i've said that repeatedly on this show but it's a fact that you have not only china china can't do it alone you have russia which has huge infrastructure deficit from the from the soviet era and the financial

crises that the i.m.f. and friends george soros and others helped along with in the ninety's and early part of this decade but russia still has considerable resources and they have huge resources of hydrocarbons that are in deficit in china you have the former the stands in between russia and china the shanghai cooperation countries plus you have the middle east oil rich middle east and africa so i think what's going on is a dynamic there with turkey playing a much more interesting role in all of this dynamic there that the european economies are beginning european industries beginning to orient to and look away from the atlantic bridge of the last fifty five sixty years and that i think is the long term way out of this mess and it's not going to come from hoping for a recovery in the united states you know radically enough peter in boston you know and looking at the the numbers that have been coming out of the united states and

again the risk with opinions here i mean on which direction it's going to go but do you think you know you're the in your the american in america on this show is there the political will in the united states to really tighten belts realizing that the kind of lifestyle that the united states has had in the last half century is simply has to change because you know every get a credit card demand every other week go out and spend and spend and spend i mean really i mean is there do you see in the end i'm thinking of this tea party movement and things like that because the realization that americans may have to start living their lives in a different way. no i don't think so i think what you have is america that is optimistic and is looking for leadership that will create new innovations i mean there's no other country in the world that is as good at creating new innovations as america i mean the sixty's we had mainframes and all the seventy's we had many computers in the eighty's we had p.c.'s in the ninety's we had the

internet and now we are developing new technologies none of them have reached the scale of the internet yet but we're developing new technologies that will boost productivity for organizations around the world and that is going to create jobs all this other talk is finance is the tail what are you the obey the industry. charge me but i don't want to give marginal last word here martin where you invest in a very i want to hear my ear. gold silver are agricultural commodities but the physical stuff i mean the physical gold silver not some paper wallach on there's eighty times more paper out there than the physical metals and then in asia style emerging markets even though william mentioned but i also want to say really really really create there are actually those people in the united states who are aware of what's happening what you just ask about the tea party as and who are where where where there's a growing in their beds needs to be tightened for example the woman their own ron paul the texas congressman ron paul who was also the presidential candidate before

so that's that's really one of the few also they have right now they don't look like they want any chance to do more to move ahead and gain through our general election issue where the economy goes maybe we'll all get together in the next corner many thanks to my guest today in hong kong frankfurt and boston and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember prost off. to. the i. want. you to be too much brighter than. the sun from science to its.