it's sad that my dad has exploded from its job since nine hundred a siege that cost hundreds of thousands of civilian lives was over. for those people the tram became a symbolic time machine. during the journey they remembered the nine hundred days that he broke them but made that friendship stronger.

russian pilots are being hailed as heroes after managing to crash landed crippled a passenger jet at a remote airfield in northwestern russia saving everyone on board as the aircraft flew at a height of ten thousand meters the fuel pump navigation and communications systems were suddenly paralyzed the crew glided the tuple all one fifty four to a lower altitude and landed at the dissolution airstrip the plane eventually came

to a halt in woodland emergency services helped passengers to safety. anyone serious about solving global problems such as nuclear proliferation you know that without russia and the united states working together little would be achieved the u.s. secretary of state says that russia is a vital partner when it comes to solving global problems speaking to the council on foreign relations in washington hillary clinton spoke about wanting to promote relations with russia and the rest of the world she stressed that only through partnership can issues like nuclear disarmament and global terrorism the results. britain's special envoy to afghanistan has stepped down from his position amid speculation he was forced out search a lot of cooper calls was an outspoken critic of the military policy in the country advocating opening a dialogue with the taliban responsible for coordinating a strategy in the region he wasn't well known for his strong criticism of the u.s.

led surge in afghanistan. now is the world about to experience a double dip recession some insiders would seem to think so and that debate is coming up next peter lavelle's crosstalk. if. you. can if you. want to. hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle when it comes to the global recession three letters say it all deb you know any new economic recovery in the developed world is sluggish at best and there are fears of a double dip recession hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent

to stimulate economies why hasn't it worked. can. you discuss the state of the global economy i'm joined by martin henniker in hong kong he's an associate director at the tike group in frankfurt we go to william endo economic researcher and the author of the new book gods of money wall street and the death of the american century and in boston we go to peter cohen he's the president of peter cowen and associates and author of capital rising how capital flows are changing business systems all over the world and another member of our cross talk team on the hunger martin if i go to you first in hong kong you've got three letters w. l. and you pick one and why. none of them i'm very common is in the western countries have never been there i've never been in any assad's offer of covering their deaths have been strong trillions of dollars at the problem if you give me trillions of

dollars i can produce a few more cars and remember my g.d.p. figure. to some extent of course but if it's just all financed by debt that it's going to hyperbolic out of control exponentially that doesn't mean anything at all the us isn't even in a recession it's more in a depression already now and the real question in our war really is is this depression going to lead to hyperinflation or is it going to lead to a different nation or a collapse of this is to me like you saw a nine hundred twenty nine in an hour we'll it's going to be i've been flaking because the governments in the us are broke we have had many many warnings of there's even a chinese rating agencies who are basically supported by the government and i was saying the u.s. is insolvent and faces bangle seesaw we're not particularly optimistic on the west ok miners are going to stay with you real quick here is there any letter in the alphabet you would choose. do you ever since the straight guy and straight it's trail down die and as not been any bones to back basically the big problem is the

best and is they have been d.m. best realizing that productive industry has gone to the eastern countries especially to china even long before they put us in a frenzy krises you could see it coming because it was i saw the interest rate is asian and the house of cards a bit on bad what have been in two thousand and eight basically the rest and banking system went bankrupt the banks who are us from collapse they have admitted in germany and the u.k. and the us they have all admitted that there are us and then some guys that said that if your days away from clouds then the u.k. they actually said they were hours before they wanted to close the case machines from the banking system so in order to prevent this banking system from collapsing what they did is governments bad or good banks in the process the government of an even higher in international beverage is now the problem to solve and go on but it is the biggest bob in history now if you say. here over and balance if i could jump and william you've been on the program before and i have a pretty good idea what you think about these things can you be more pessimistic

than martin. well i think i can be equally especially mystic i think a lot of that describes the situation in the united states certainly use the letter d m like the great depression in the thirty's there is no leeway in terms of federal debt the federal government has just maxed out on its on its credit card to china to japan and other countries. now they're in a situation where even the generals are warning against the overindebtedness of of the united states was a national security issue i want to finish and i want to get back to that issue a little bit later if i go to you peter are you going to be a little optimism here. absolutely i think they're both have very interesting theories that as a citizen of the united states i'm just not seeing it what i'm seeing is that we've had three quarters in a row of positive g.d.p. growth where we're forecasting very slow economic growth about one to one point

four percent for the rest of the year in the bond market and the real problem here is that we've lost eight point four million jobs since december two thousand and seven and what we're not getting is enough new jobs heat about three hundred thousand jobs a month in order to revive the economy and my basic theme is that america has a great fundamental strength which is the ability to commercialize ideas intellectual property and we saw that really created lots of jobs in the sixty's seventy's eighty's and ninety's we had a las decade under george w. bush and now we have an opportunity to revive that innovation engine and i here if i didn't play here i think it's. gone days are gone in the united states everything has been outsourced mentioned at the beginning to asia and to other countries even that the jobs that are being created in the united states are call

center jobs because the wages in india have become too high for call centers i mean that gives you an idea of them like this and i appreciate i understand what you're saying but i think i think really has a right here you go first and we're going to go to martin peter go ahead ok ok what i see going on is that i talk to a lot of venture capitalists i'm a venture capitalist myself and i see them investing in start up companies now what i think is missing is a technology that will unleash corporate spending corporations in the u.s. have accumulated one point four trillion in cash that they're just sitting on because they haven't found a good place to invest it so what i'm looking at is trying to get a new technology on the order of the internet or many computers or or p.c.'s that will unleash a wave of investment by. companies and that will create lots of jobs now that. you don't do that. anywhere else i want martin to jump in here go and so i mean martin let's follow up on what peter just said i mean why maybe he's right maybe could be

technology based but why would it happen in the united states why don't you just have the same investments in in healthy economies like there are growing bric countries and he has to do the same thing there go ahead yes exactly i mean most of the asian countries and some other emerging market countries are there far far lower debt they're still have lower cost and then a lot of a technology that's moving also to china to even big big u.s. multinational companies so it's really only a financial bubble a property bubble and then some military that's left there basically and i did states by just adding on whatever i wanted to jump into early basically really a mention of the job growth maybe cause and the jobs there actually for me as a matter of fact the fastest growing for exports right now of the united states is sheep and if you're a new home and shellfish so what you can take from this is that it's obvious i mean on the on the positive side result without laughing actually evolved on the

positive side is so and this is actually a statistic that in the united states that that can help because they do have a lot of agricultural land we have seen agriculture prices to go up and china is importing a lot more of their stuff in important gone from the united states but that's where you see the only sector actually that has some good prospects in the united states apart from that run really they're optimistic and again you know we see the other economies as much better but one other question just a follow up to two peter i just wonder if you go to boston university peter if i may ask you that. no i didn't i've taught there but i didn't go to boston university but i went to mit and mit is responsible for an awful lot of new jobs a lot of innovation you know the world wide web came from tim berners lee is a professor at mit so i mean i think that person what we are missing is so they have the owner of the undergraduate class at mit today is not u.s. born what percentage of the undergraduate i'm sorry gentlemen i want to i don't

know you know i think he's just been here i mean the last week a group there was a big con amiss in italy and i think it's an annual event here and there was a lot of pessimism in many of them walked away from this comment saying one and one in three is one in three chance will be a double dip but some of the really bigger names were saying that they were more certain of that and that we keep hearing the same to the u.s. government and the european union they have they don't have any tools left in their box ok to fix these problems here and there's no there are no more bullets left i think is what was being said if i could go to you martin what can they do i mean if they've tried everything fiscally monetary really i mean are we really that way in a way that we cannot dig our way out of this because it's an el ok we just have to learn to live with fewer things we have to learn to live poorer i would be very frank with you this kind of lifestyle that we've had in the twentieth century early twentieth century is over at least for the west. yes and i don't think even as an

m.s.i. thing we have we have just the worst is still ahead of us in the western countries because what i just mentioned earlier and two dozen a the bad are the banks and the bank of the government in the process saw in two thousand and ten you have the rico governments going bankrupt which is actually in this case the sars and european countries and europe has mostly the same problems as the united states those going bankrupt then the stronger countries better the weaker countries now the next thing that's going to happen is a strong look on this go bankrupt and then you have some form of a one crash or inflation where once you have what hyperinflation then you can start a new is a new currency or you have some form of bankruptcy reorganization to get rid of this kind of debt to start a new about until and unless that happens read on really invest in in those areas and one other thing create. peter before if you're entitled to the boston university actually there's one economics professor at the boston university which reaction hold in quite high regard his name is a laurence kotlikoff and he has written. about the fiscal gap of the united states

because that's much more important than the nation or dead today we're talking about because the fiscal gap actually includes all of those unfunded liabilities of social security medicare and so on that the united states have and that figure is fifteen times larger than the national debt it's two hundred two trillion u.s. dollars that's absolutely staggering figure so in some way there's going to be some kind of almost some debt before that has to happen and then he also publish your report saying is the united states bankrupt and that was even in the federal reserve bank always under louis a reviewer so definitely what i would recommend be to look this up this guy isn't too far from you in boston and he actually points the finger at what's the real problem you know you can trust the short term get a piece of this event manipulated as are the unemployment figures you know i mean it's real unemployment is twenty two percent they change the way they did it in one thousand nine hundred four they don't collen anyone anymore was given up looking for a dog this school in. and i'm as you know so the fish are watching the interrogation

everywhere and just growing before me for me joey but continue here we have to go to a short break and then we'll continue our discussion on the double dip stay with r.t. . if you can see. the. dramatic example of the firmness. courage. and honor. they managed not only to stay alive. but to keep their faces and souls in inhuman circumstances.

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. and. welcome back to cross talk of people about to remind you we're talking about the possibility of a double dip recession. but before let's see what russians think about the global crisis what shape will the growth line take what's led oh well define the recession w. l. . off to some limited growth the world's major economies remain in danger of slipping back into another recession then the other agency recently asked russians what they think about their country's economic recovery twenty five percent of

respondents said russia is emerging from the crisis period put a two percent believe recovery is on its way and another nineteen percent believe the situation will at least not worsen however twenty four percent believe the crisis will be. but the overall trend is optimistic and russia's economic expectations are returning to pre-crisis levels. peter i'd like to go to you in boston i mean as an investor you have a vested interest in all of this here what should what should the current administration do in the united states and what should the europeans be doing because i mean have they done it right i mean a lot of people are very very worried there's money is there being people are very skittish now about investing i mean it's extraordinary that banks became weighted so much money and profits when the rest of the economy is is really got going into the gutter what should the decision makers be doing now in europe in the united

states. well i think what's needed right now is a bigger stimulus package i mean they passed an eight hundred billion dollars stimulus package last year they should have passed a one point two trillion dollars stimulus package just because of the enormity of the downturn that the administration inherited you know it's clearly on the order of what happened during the great depression and the mistake they made back then was trying to balance the budget too soon we're already getting into this kind of talk now frankly the administration has not done a good enough job of of forcefully defending its position and it's trying to sort of square the circle too much politically and as a result it's going to lose a lot of ground in the midterm elections so right now you're not going to see a lot of changes in policy you're going to see some extensions of an r. and d. tax credit little tweaks here and there that can pass politically you're not going to see the kind of scale of intervention that i think you really need to boost the

economy i think the basic idea is that you need to prime the pump of economic activity in the private sector and i think that's the idea of stimulus is that you get some economic activity going you get consumer spending that increases demand increases hiring and that kind of creates a virtuous cycle of growth ok all he really what we need and i was really just one more thing to really any of. this asked a question for everybody here i mean can can any can we keep her going into debt to try to solve this crisis i mean how much more low we're going to go and yet i mean what is by two thousand and thirty what is it going to be one hundred twenty percent of g.d.p. william go ahead i mean i love i miss we're helping out all she and all but we bet we're going to bankrupt ourselves in the process go ahead will yeah well this is not a question of theoretically the federal government the united states can go into and debt in this as long as the world is stupid enough to keep buying the government bonds but those days are coming to a close i think fairly soon the problem is it's not

a question of four hundred billion dollars plus or minus. the stimulus is just like water going down the bathtub it's look they stop a housing stimulus in april and in may the worst housing news starts crash took place in decades and it's an economy being held together by artificial life support because seven financial institutions in new york the gods of money as i call them in my new book. in wall street they have looted and leached anything healthy left in the american economy over the last thirty years or so actually since the gold dollar decoupling in seventy one and you have as a result of that. the chance was missed in two thousand and seven had had the government unite in the united states and the treasury not been controlled by goldman sachs and wall street as it was or timothy geithner in the new york fed and now in the us treasury. if you would out a sensible intelligent government concerned about the nation's welfare they would

have nationalized five to seven of those institutions immediately and done what sweden did in the early ninety's with a secure i'm good bank bad bank a model that was considered anathema it was called socialist by henry paulson the treasury secretary at the time and as a result trillions of dollars of taxpayer money went to bail out the wall street friends of goldman sachs henry paulson and not only that the federal reserve ben bernanke refuses to say what he has done what the federal reserve has done with its money creation it's over the top now. mark mentioned these statistics from from this boston professor about the unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare and so forth it's just. the banks have been looted the country sucked up to the bone and there is no impulse there is no internet this is going to fix this one the united states is a basket case economy europe is less so because. still germans still make the best

cars in the western world in the world buys those cars in the steel and other industry is still intact united states has outsourced everything including its brains to the rest of the world and lives as a service economy and it's back ok martin i mean what do we do now i mean you and william painted a very very depressing picture here is there any way out there is there a solution or just suck it up. i totally agree with this basically everything william said on the united states although i disagree a bit on the euro because i think. germany can bail out the rest of your below and that sucked into the mind of europe and germany's government debt even if now and the deficit are also knowledge an all time record and germany has it already it's all in. trouble to meet the obligations on the ordination a day and then there are mind of europe basically the industry looks more or less

the same as as a death in the united states and debt ratios are also close to what the united states is in the u.k. they say so and then in terms of how or how you are pair the situation. we are not particularly optimistic and beyond really politicians easy i mean again i mentioned i mean what william actually said is he should have probably let a lot of those banks fail i mean many of the wall street's bangs and really bangs our casinos they just play business money and if they if they get it wrong they get bad art by the taxpayer if they get it right they just take it out as a bonus quickly enough so that when later on so are things done so are they there to get the taxpayer money again so that was the big problem but now really i don't really see an easy fix was a solution even from the federal reserve bring more money of a have more power it's not going to work because i learned greenspan even alan greenspan even recommended home on us before the barber came on to take all of these. mortgages the federal reserve made it much much worse so i'd best they're

very incompetent or worse they're actually part of these banks that have sucked the u.s. dry if you want to so we don't see a solution we just say investment wise stay out of the u.s. stay out of any u.s. bonds all of us a lot of you will put your money gold asia and some other commodities ok. so. i think what we have to look at is a global picture and the magnet for industrial dynamism and from. structure investment in the world right now all the countries of your asia i've said that repeatedly on this show but it's a fact that you have not only china china can't do it alone you have russia which has huge infrastructure deficit from the from the soviet era and the financial crises that the i.m.f. and friends george soros and others helped along with in the ninety's and early part of this decade but russia still has considerable resources and they have huge

resources of hydrocarbons that are in deficit in china you have the former the stands in between russia and china the shanghai cooperation countries plus you have the middle east oil rich middle east and africa so i think what's going on is a dynamic there with turkey playing a much more interesting role in all of this dynamic there that the european economies are beginning european industries beginning to orient to and look away from the atlantic bridge of the last fifty five sixty years and that i think is the long term way out of this mess and it's not going to call from hoping for a recovery in the united states you know radically enough peter in boston you know and looking at the the numbers that have been coming out of the united states and again the there are split opinions here i mean on which direction it's going to go but do you think you know you're the in your the american in america on this show is there the political will in the united states to really tighten belts realizing

that the kind of lifestyle that the united states has had in the last half century is simply has to change because you know every get a credit card to mail every other week go out and spend and spend and spend i mean really i mean is that if you see it in the end i'm thinking of this tea party movement and things like that because the realization that americans may have to start living their lives in a different way. no i don't think so i think what you have is america that is optimistic and is looking for leadership that will create new innovations i mean there's no other country in the world that is as good at creating new innovations as america i mean the sixty's we had mainframes and all the seventy's we had many computers in the eighty's we had p.c.'s in the ninety's we had the internet and now we are developing new technologies none of them have reached the scale of the internet yet but we're developing new technologies that will boost productivity for organizations around the world.