hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle then next to kim north korea's long expected leadership transition process has begun the dear leader's youngest son has been made into a four star general in the army isolated and impoverished north korea is badly in need of change how will this happen and who will ultimately benefit. and you can. start. to discuss the power transition in north korea i'm joined by donald kirk in seoul he's a correspondent for the christian science monitor in beijing we have victor gao a director of the china national association of international studies and an exit or we go to aid in foster carter honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern korea at the university of leeds and another member of our crosstalk team on the hunger if i first can go to you aden you wrote an article today in today's f.t. titled harsh realities for north korea's unseen air and you write stability is far

from guaranteed three major fault lines struggles for power policy disputes hawks versus doves and if anyone will align with it internationally can a twenty seven twenty eight year old man just made into a general has no military experience to tackle any of these problems. i think i would say rather him than me it will be very difficult for him and much will hinge on whatever abilities we he has which we simply don't know and also his relationships with other people like his his powerful uncle and so on but i think it's important to stress that there are these fault lines north korea has done a pretty good job of keeping its politics hidden it tries to present its politics to some kind of theater where everyone is always unified but of course this is a mosque every every country has politics and particularly a regime like this which i think is rather a road in many ways it's been on a path which is not sustainable and anyway for dictatorships

a transition like this succession is always in the killie's heel i feel quite sorry for this young man quite honestly ok if i go donald if i could go to you a theater of the politics of theater here how fragile is the regime in your opinion and in looking at this transition period because for the dear leader he had quite a bit of time to be in apprentice and come to power this younger the younger one only he's going to have a lot has to learn a lot very very fast his father is in very bad health. he's obviously been rushed into the job he's rushed into promotion and rushed into the position of heir presumptive to the throne so to speak he is noted twenty seven to twenty eight years old he's had very little experience no military experience suddenly he's a four star general so obviously you know there's a lot of a lot of problems in the other hand there's a sense that everybody sort of wants to unite around him because what's the

alternative internets and strife you know who knows what would happen who will be and who's throat and all that kind of things so we don't we don't really see and overthrow a civil war breaking out as long as kim jong il is alive now after kim jong il goes and he's not in good health in fact he's in quite bad health you know all bets are off what would his uncle do is uncle in law i should say jiang song was married to kim jong il's younger sister what would he do with the really the regent or would kim kim jong un like to get rid of him incidentally i should add that john was not the only one who was promoted today there were there were five others who were promoted the most important in the family and his family the younger sister a woman sixty four years old all right all in the family kim and perpetuating the dynasty ok victor fine go to you. you're the neighbor china is the neighbor and has

the closest relations with with north korea. do you do you think the chinese leadership is given a heads up for a pretty clear heads up of what was going to happen this transition process because north korea if it likes it or not self-reliance or not is very reliant on china. well first of all i think the announcement coming out of pyongyang today is not surprising because the rumors have already been spreading for quite some time now the official chinese position about this changes in senior leadership positions in north korea will be that it is purely internal affair of north korea and china will respect whatever outcome there is so long as it is meant for peace and stability in this part of the world however i would personally say that given this change in the senior leadership and with the younger kim appointed as the heir apparent with very

little experience and no track record no. proven record of judgment or good decision making. for himself i think the coming few years probably will be a very critical period of time of uncertainty maybe even instability in north korea and potentials of the younger kim may be put to test it fortunately the kim jong il himself is still the supreme leader so that will gain some time a couple of years' time for the younger kim but whether he will live up to the expectation and when the support and the hearts and minds of the people around him it's very uncertain saw i think all the stakeholders in this part of the world need to watch the situation very carefully lesage instability breaks out in that country and after all we have to remind our viewers this is a country that potentially could have a nuclear weapon akkad has tested nuclear weapons even if i go back to you the the economy is in tatters. they've tried the currency reform it didn't

work i mean it's the tried everything on their path right now it doesn't work what do they have to do and i think that reading your moment i know the answer to take the china path emulate china well the chances of that happening. i think the chances of that are now relatively good because i think that finally they may be grasping that there is no alternative goodness knows they have been it china ever since it made its own historic turn towards i don't know what the official phrases but if you recall that state capitalism thirty years ago i mean in the era when done shopping was alive he personally took a slightly younger kim jong il around china and i think it was one hundred eighty three or eighty four and he's had his successors up to hu jintao very recently president hu of china have hosted kim jong il ever since why don't they get the message why do they do this crazy currency reform which is basically robbing people

of their meager savings why even just a few days ago the party newspaper wrote on shin moon is still saying that you know dependency is all wrong and that the modern way is for countries to rely on their own materials this is not true but i take some comfort there's a man called park pond jew he was the prime minister the premier until three years ago he's known as a reformer he visited seoul and happier times as did john suntech actually. the south koreans are pretty clear he's a technocrat he knows what needs to be done i would have thought the chinese will insist that if they're putting aid in which i think they're probably going to now because they fear instability but this time at the very least they must cross the nat'l the market reform whether they'll give up the bomb though that's another matter ok if i can go to you now donald in seoul they've tried just about everything when it comes to self-reliance i mean do you think the chinese now will start insisting because this is a time of instability of uncertainty say look we have

a lot of answers for you we can we can be your safety net now because there are too many unknowns out there we have a lot of unknowns that we can provide you do you think that the new regime there will start looking that way and say yeah we can keep our sovereignty but we're going to have a we're going to be a junior and partnership with a much more powerful country that isn't threatening north korea by the way. well i think the times have been insisting some time and haven't been getting very far incidentally there's not yet a new regime on young there's far from a new regime the same regime is in place kim jong il was reaffirmed today and that's another announcement that was that was that came today he was reaffirmed today as general secretary of the party and there was a lot more fuss and a lot more rhetorical fuss about kim jong il's. reaffirmation by acclamation at the conference as general secretary there was just one problem kim jong il did not show up at the conference was he too ill to show up nor are we seeing yet kids going on

at the party conference will you show up he might he might we might wake up tomorrow morning and get an important announcement that he did show up at the party conference and he was named a member of the central committee or some such but we haven't got that yet. the old regime is very much on place and it's altogether possible it's not likely they can john will will simply continue the policies of the old regime some people think that was he who was largely responsible for the currency for the failed currency reform so i would say don't count on. any great awakening in north korea although just one footnote although there has been free market three free market tiering going on for some time victor and i mean what is it it'll take for the chinese to convince them to go the right path because if a country like north korea with its nuclear capacity in poverty it just is a threat to everybody and ultimately it's a threat to china because a big regime collapse that is a catastrophe for china's borders and we all know that and then later in the

program i want to talk about how would you disaster for for a chinese american relations in aster that if it were didn't occur so i mean the chinese must be really want to be pushing saying look you have to get on the right path and this is a perfect time to do it because people are going to be looking for allies is aiden's article pointed out looking for allies around the world and the north koreans only have one. well i would say there is no doubt that the nuclear weapons proliferation on the korean peninsula constitutes a grave threat to peace and stability in this part of the world don't forget in all these and asia is one of the few places if not the only place in the world which still suffers the consequences of not only the cold war but the second world war and with the nuclear weapons proliferation this really undermines the prospects of peace as there will be and conflict will really have the prospect of very up on the other hand i don't think china is in

a position to of lecture any other country including its neighbors for any country to go onto the path of reform you really need to put the fundamental interests of the people to the forefront rather than considering your own vested interests and i think of this is a crucial test because in order to conduct such a reform you need to really be sure that you will be able to bring more by the bread and butter onto the table so that people's livelihoods will be improved ok this will be going to. remain here with the remnants of jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on north korean politics today with our .

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list. live. live. we're talking about the prospects for north korea. live. but before let's see what russians think about its nuclear program well. a first in three decades north korea is the ruling communist party the workers' party of korea needs to discuss the transition of power analysts expect few changes in pyongyang's foreign policy but focus will surely be on the state's nuclear

ambition the russian public opinion research center also citizens if north korea's position of nuclear weapons would pose a threat to russia's national interests forty seven percent of russians believe it would go to six percent disagree the workers' party congress is widely seen the first public steps in leadership change as it was in nineteen eighty when came jong il made his political depute he took ok now i'd like to go to you it's still in the cards that the north korean state could collapse because of its economy because of just too many resources being poured into the military let's talk about scenarios here right now we have we have. thirty eight thousand american troops south of the border we have a country parts of it are experiencing famine it's a pretty large population twenty two million people and what let's talk scenarios what if it were to collapse what are the south koreans are going to do what are the

chinese going to do in the greater neighborhood and i'd like to point out it's been estimated that if the two countries if all are pretty cool political problems went away it would still cost three trillion dollars to unify them that's a daunting amount of money even for south korea go ahead. that's right and that's why it's one thing i think perhaps everybody can agree on that in terms of the wish list it's a collapse although i think it can't be ruled out is in nobody's interest it's in absolutely everybody's interests the north korean people themselves and particularly the neighbors china and south korea above all the immediate neighbors if somehow this regime can be led or its successor kicking and screaming if necessary to pursue a pass part of economic reform at home and denuclearization abroad in other words to become a more normal country and a good neighbor which puts its priority on the economy then a gradualist process a soft landing as it's sometimes called is much better for all concerned if you

know if the existing regime might take dollars earlier point that you know it's still the same guy as at the moment but they have veered slightly i'd say we had a slightly reformist premier a little while back if he comes back to power again as seems possible and with the pressure from china and with the fact that there's it's clear that the old economy is not working then i think gradualist thing where the regime starts doing some of the work itself rather than collapsing that is in everybody's interests and i think certainly china which plays a very long game and i think it stands to benefit and maybe south korea which under its present government has been more conflicted about engagement you know will want to try and head that off from happening you know donald if i can go to you if unification is really off the table for a long time here and it looks like it is i mean what the chinese can say to the north koreans you can keep your software if you if you in student market reforms stop being hostile get rid of those nucular your nuclear program i mean that could

be a win win for the north koreans couldn't it because it's whole i guess it's self image of itself of self-reliance we're different we can stand alone and they can they can have the trappings of power and their military can have. be rich their their political elite can be safe i mean it's a win win there if it's working with china they keep their sovereignty because with unification and i think they keep their eye on the unification of western east germany what happened to the east german politicians they basically that political political establishment disappeared so do you think that this regime will look in that direction and not take the historic example of germany but maybe something unique for themselves where they keep their sovereignty. well china would certainly seem to have a lot of leverage the chinese say they don't have all as much leverage as you might think they they have promised ten billion dollars i think was last year china's premier wen when made that promise in a visit to pyongyang they have promised about ten billion dollars in aid an

investment which is a tremendous incentive and i think has a lot to do with north korea talking about returning to six party talks on its nukes and so forth but i don't think that it means that north korea is going to follow china's bidding at all in you know economically although possibly it should but one one point nobody of course wants north korea to collapse the chinese list ability south korea frankly does not like the idea of all of all those north korean refugees pouring across this border wondering how on earth you bring about stability on the korean peninsula there's one group of people however who would i think stand to profit from north korea the collapse of the north korean regime that's about two hundred thousand people caught in the gulag system in north korea political prisoners several hundred thousand more prisoners maybe not exactly political prisoners but nonetheless held under difficult circumstances and a number of million more who are basically starving or not getting medical aid and so forth and living in an extremely improbable press condition i'm sorry to have to

press the human rights as you so much but i think those people and that's quite a lot of people would stand to benefit from north korea's collapse but all the powers around north korea including the united states by the way which has twenty seven thousand twenty seven thousand south korea no longer thirty eight thousand sign clued in the united states twenty seven thousand five hundred troops are now u.s. troops in south korea the united states. probably japan certainly japan china south korea certainly none of those none of the powers surrounding north korea want north korea to collapse but there's a very significant number of north koreans a number of a million north koreans who will undoubtedly benefit from the collapse of this the present. victor if i can go to you if we do have this this collapse and i want to stress it's still very much in the cards has beijing in washington in your mind discuss this because we wouldn't want to go back to a situation where we have chinese military and the american military eyeballing

each other in north asia that would not be a good idea to have the two sides discuss this a contingency plan because i mean there are elements of the north regime north korean regime will just simply will not give up because like i gave the example of the east german regime they weren't integrated they went away ok so this is a real tripping point here you're all involved. yeah actually my experience is that people outside of this region tend to believe that china has a tremendous amount of influence or leverage over north korea in our only experience actually it's not the case the north koreans are fiercely independent they have their own way of doing things and of the have their own strategy they have their own timetable and on the other hand the chinese actually respect their sovereignty and independence and integrity very vibe that we hesitate to a lecture as to what's the best approach for the north koreans therefore i think it

is completely up to the north koreans to figure out what exactly they want to do whether they want to maintain status quo which is a disastrous situation because the loop living standards of the people is really very very dangerous or they want to really get their acts together and move onto our path of reform and a market economy so the choice is very obvious whether this or this successor will be able to figure out which way to turn is up for them to decide now there is no peace between north korea and south korea there is only an armistice the war actually has not officially ended this adds to the potential tension and the scene here on the south korean naval ship the soldier is one example to see how fragile stability this part of the world can be and more recently tensions also existed between china and united states because china is very happy about the u.s. military exercise with south koreans very close to the chinese shore and the

fishable the incident between china and japan recently over ireland is also another very unfortunate thing therefore if you look at this part of the world you actually come across many little bits and pieces of ingredients which actually made up for lots of pages this is why i would say the country is in this rather. really need to put a forest of all peace and stability development to the forefront and we cannot just serve the vested interests of small groups of people here ok to aden if i go to you i mean it's good that the nuclear issue is still that serious make one go go ahead for donald go ahead jump in go ahead. i want to make one very i want to make. then occasionally i just want to make one very fast point there is no reform leader on the stature of. rising in north korea and the system in north korea does not permit the rise of such a reform leader at least at this juncture when china reformed they had

a reform leader and they had a number of people really wanted reform we don't see that happening in north korea that's the end of my interjection in this in this conversation on. it for the world when they look at north korea and they still think of the nucular issue here and there has been some soundings made that the north koreans may go back to some kind of format to negotiate about their nuclear program is this to they just going to use it again as some kind of bargaining chip for security for for a for other issues is a trade off i mean that's really one of the only cards they really have left that's not what else do they have to their name to get international attention. i think that's right i think after the i mean the so-called the six party talks i mean you could call them the six year talks or maybe seven year they began in two thousand and three no one knows that certain intractable problems one could mention israel palestine and so on do go on a long time but i would i am frankly skeptical about there are some in the north

koreans now and then they play this game but i think everyone can see through it the u.s. defense secretary robert gates famously saying i think more than once that we're not going to buy the same horse twice and very little progress was made or we could argue historically no time now about whether if some people had done something different a different junctures and we had this program in the can as long as one thousand nine hundred four under the bill clinton agreed framework but here we are it's out in the open it's the only thing that they've got i don't think they'll give it up very quickly but i also i don't detect very much enthusiasm oh great let's go for the six party talks china will say that as host they would like it to work but i'm not even sure washington or this quite a hard line regime in south korea particularly after the sinking of the china basically who believes that if you want to give up nuclear weapons you do like gadhafi you get on the phone to m i six and you tell them and within a year or two it's done north korea has not behaved that way and i see no reason to

think unfortunately that it's about all right on that kind of pessimistic note i want to thank my guests in today in seoul beijing an exit or and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember crosstalk will. be. wealthy british style. markets why not scandal. find out what's really happening to the global economy in the kinds of reports on.

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the sack mayor of moscow was reportedly planning to stay on the political scene after other russian president said he lost trust in him. massive protests in europe start in spades tens of thousands throughout the continent get set to march against their government susteren measures. and curious tamper paris to elect a new parliament after a violent clashes wreaked havoc in the central asian republics will look at one political chances one politician chances to bring the country back from the brink. airfoil plans to quadruple as passenger flow and revenues in fifteen years its strategy is very similar to what germany has. details in our business program.

you're watching live from moscow with me marina joshie now the mayor of moscow has reportedly insisted he will not retire and wants to stay in politics having been sacked by the russian president your english cough shared his plans with his callie's after dmitry medvedev said he had lost trust in the country's most powerful regional leader r t z corpus going off has the latest. early on wednesday moscow's former mayor came to his former office to gather some of his personal belongings and we were saying that he's going to have to make several further visits to his office because he does have a lot of personal belongings the usual school officially gone out of the united russia party and sent a letter to the party complaining about what he called was a strong.