international relations is moving away from europe it's played out and asia even the us a pacific country is we're focusing its foreign policy on asia where each countries that will play the roles locate it in asia and latin america but that's a different question now what's the current state of european asian relations europe is of no interest to asia if we view europe as a landmass that reaches the pacific ocean russia and europe i'm not a coach but if we picture them as an alliance and we can say europe reaches the pacific this is the reason europe needs russia although i'm not sure if. i thought i'm going to get very much thank you.

living in harmony with nature. people. know. the crew

to feel. the oil will. drop.

recently dissatisfied with influence that's according to the freedom zone the largest event on the fringe of the conservative party conference they also claim brussels as an fringing on civil liberties. up next year on our t.v. interview show spotlight this time host al gore and of the joined by two political analyst from the international crisis group they discuss if reconciliation is possible and that's the simmering ethnic tension in the volatile caucasus region stay with us. hello again or welcome to spotlight the enjoy the show on our tape algor now and today we'll be talking about one of the most dangerous conflict zones on the post

soviet space for many years now the carcasses has been a volatile region after the collapse of the soviet union simmering ethnic tensions are matched the conflicts there have taken many lives selling long lasting confrontation so how do you go about recounts silly ation will be asking political analyst and drapey fun stuff and said being fries or who is the europe project director of the international crisis group. sabina fraser says some states in the caucasus have an opportunity for it. but she says governments are wasting time and money on political intrigues to stay in power and corruption plants are just as of the two main factors behind the stick nation of political life in some cooperation states. this region is also an expertise of russian political analyst and. in his articles on day has been pointing out what helped

build instability in the region. russia europe and the us all have interests in the caucasus where do they overlap and would a joint effort bring peace and stability to the region here also been preserved and under the funds. hello sabine hello andrew thank you very much for being with us well first of all the tensions in the now going to kind of region. and this is a constant between me and sent by john is seems to be increasing according to the reports we get nearly every day when we have new problems new content going on there so what do you see as the reason for this escalation of tension. now go ahead. well. to tell you the truth is i don't believe that there is an increase of the tension there but we have to see that in all be peace negotiation

talks came to. deadlock and to some stalemate. all the efforts of the international community and that has been you know taking for the last year and a half actually came to the stalemate and would have to take to what the taken to account be military were thore military a language that was used in for the last year basically i believe that to some extent that language was used for the let's say internal pot purposes but in any case i believe we have to take it seriously we have to take it seriously i. with the help i would hope and the real you thing that you know the war world war break out they are because all things are actually sure that there will be more war but only god could know what's going to happen especially if you have to organise stand in front of each other were even like you know the assemble shot could spark the military attack but in any case i believe the georgian by the legs

a general more and sober my journal azerbaijan's should not and will not start the war because technically this is what the military analysts. could win that war would be all seen enjoy among boys crick and slugs. for this is. we recently saw attempts. on the side of turkey to improve relations with armenia and this process has been pretty successful and to hear about it it also is trying to improve relations with a way with with it so their neighbor can this results in the new attempts from baquba to tighten its position on the kind of. i mean currently action correct what we have seen in the past year and a half was a reconciliation between turkey and armenia with the signing of two prata calls

which would potentially have opened the border between turkey and armenia but also a lot of other things to help improve the relationships between the two countries especially establishing historical commission which would have dealt with all kinds of different conflicts between turkey and armenia but potentially also the issues that happened at the turn at the beginning of last century so that was a positive momentum that is something that really could help change the dynamics in the in the southern caucasus build a certain amount of confidence especially in armenia because one of the things that the armenians are concerned about of course is their security and what their they're worried about is repeat of history with turkey but also they see the azerbaijani. as kind of turks so they're worried that if if if something goes wrong that actually they be attacked on two fronts on the turkish johnnie front so here the reconciliation with turkey could have really built some confidence in armenia and even though the two processes resolution and going to and turkey armenia reconciliation are not linked it's clear that if there was improvement in turkey

armenia reconciliation this could help create an environment which would have made compromise easier in armenia do you agree with andrew that the tensions in the globe in the kind of region are not really increasing they just sort of frozen well i think that the tensions are increased increase in the sense that there are there are more incidents the problem is it's very difficult to understand exactly what's going on on the frontline because we don't have really a team of international observers except a very very small o.s.c. presence but we don't have a regular international presence that can tell us what's going on so basically when you have some kind of exchange of fire the armenians say it's the as areas who did the say it's the armenians and so nobody really knows what's going on difference of how seriously do you think a book who is considering a military option as a solution in a court in the kind of a human blitzkrieg do you think do you think it can it could really. become in the region not a chance not

a single chance. like i've been saying and what the military analysts are saying that doesn't have a child doesn't stand a chance to to make this more a blue screen because the positions on the frontline and in forty five that much that the reasonable way to win the war like in five or seven days so what's going to happen is going to be the law and you know just for all show this war and these cues in this case the international community was jumping on the will may be important be the parties will make them to stop and please don't forget that azerbaijan in a way is the very vulnerable state in case the. the war because it has a huge bicycle it's their life by it's a brain cell it's a ball for of if something's going to happen with one pirates and argue that's been sick of the international community which really depends on goals or on the gas and or be a circle of americans will binge on stop further i elected comments of the possible

back as a reaction on the foreign policies of rimini as well. as people in russia really in your relations in august russia russia has reached an agreement with the mean you have to to extend the lease of russian military base also also russia has confirmed its commitment to defend through niña different meaning is assaulted if it's attacked how do you think this agreement is seen in baquba and how many this affects the relations between between azerbaijan and armenia of course this this news of the signature of this agreement was heard with quite a bit of alarm in by cool. people saw this very much as russia taking sides as russia deciding that if there was a war it would jump in the defense of armenia the way it was interpreted in baku was that if azerbaijan did decide to try to regain its occupied territories then that russia would actually defend armenia so this is an issue that i've actually

been discussing here in moscow trying to understand what the russian position is and what i've understood is that russia does not mean this as a kind of promise to armenia that it would actually defend armenia if there was an attack russia i think is in a good position that it's trying to be an equal mediator in the area and not really trying to take sides pro armenian or poor as a bridge or any but the as a johnnie's do see it as a union rule experts in moscow and putting this in the studio have criticized moscow for not having any foreign policy and on the post soviet space now russia seems to seems to have a few. foreign policy for example after signing this agreement in august then in september the russian president visited back to have talks with mr aliyev do you think andrei that that medvedev was able to convince the leader of that that that the russian foreign policy is a virus that least. no i think. i think mr nevada cannot do that and i

believe that a server drown in a will be different from that russia at least somewhat is taken there and the last theorem is live somewhat on the side of armenia because we're strategic partners with armenia but on the other hand we have to say that the us we're strategic partners with zero but we're not enemies was a surgeon and gone back to the issue of the russian treaty that was signed what were known two months ago and everything i believe in that situation is a sort of public commitment done by russia saying that hey guys are not just we really want you to make i mean we really stand like on defense of our media but at the same time because. this treaty is north or outdoors or bridge or boy of this is sort of loud public commitment saying that hey guys will the founder mean it but you guys have to sit together and make peace i mean to to get to the conclusion that when you sell the question is will the russians fight

a miserable john i would say no i mean. and said no not. so if medvedev. wasn't able to convince a leave that moscow isn't biased so do you think moscow really is a biased in favor of armenia rather than buckle at least in the near got the kind of accolades and or what's your approach. i'm not sure if i can say that moscow is really biased in favor of armenia but i do think that moscow has a tremendous amount of influence of armenia and that down at this point in it we are in a very sensitive moment in the negotiations on president. medvedev has been actively personally involved so what he might be able to do is provide some kind of support to the armenian leadership so that the armenian leadership can take the necessary steps to sign the basic principle agreement that's now being discussed so i think that here maybe there can be also some kind of war public. i would say vision of

russia in armenia that is supporting this and encouraging armenia to move forward obviously both sides need to be encouraged but i think that really now it's really armenia that needs the kind of extra push on to agree to make their agreement possible say so be that frizer and the spotlight will be back shortly right after the break will continue this interview so stay with us and.

welcome back to the spotlight i am al green of and just to remind you that my guests today are sabine frizer and the hippie friend so we're talking about the situation situation in the caucasus which is pretty tense especially in the govern the kind about where where the as everybody soldiers and the armenian soldiers are confronting each other and as andrew said a single provocation a single bullet can cause a full scale war. the reason behind most of the answers today of the congress probably. is money economics so. mr elliott the president of azerbaijan has recently signed an agreement with saakashvili the georgian leader about the direct shipment of the as a regards to romania at the same time he has an agreement with gazprom russian

company committing as everybody on to sell its gas to the russian company all these two commitments seem to be contradiction we seem to be have a conflict within them but europe should love it. such a kind of a contradiction in what we just say but as you suggest i think i should love it and i think a lot of spa there if he was still alive would love it even more because the whole point further for john is to have a kind of multifactor foreign policy a multi-factor energy policy they would they would like to make sure that they diversify their buyers so that way they're really needed by everybody so i think that it's really it is actually doing a pretty good job for his country in terms of diversification and maintaining influence it's only maintaining influence it's only surviving in the world surrounded by superpowers or is it trying really to create a russian alliance because because some observers think that's really destroying and pretty successfully too to get involved in the sort of and to rationalize what

we're doing to do share this impression i know most realize take it as a real economic more for a very very vigilant standpoint are completely sabrina from the germans or madrone a standpoint he's doing the right things he's very more so far in the room solve our transportation of us so i do not see any political pro-tax there. but that's really president of georgia europe support for circus really remain and conditions in the n.f.c. will future what we see i don't think that europe support for president saakashvili is unconditional i mean i don't think it has been i don't think it will be either right now what will be interesting to see in georgia is there actually engaged in a constitutional reform process so it will be very interesting and i think you're the european union member countries will be looking very closely at georgia to see

if the country can move forward towards a more democratic system with a more a stronger parliamentary system or whether it's going to somehow strengthen the potential hand of president saakashvili so i think this is a moment where everybody will be looking at. origin actually testing georgia and well the same question to you mr van so will will the hatred of muscular toward satisfy really remain unconditional may russia may russia somehow or some very stable ish relations with. until he's in power well of course. until one circus will is in power russia will remain russia will remain as had been the enemy of i'm not saying georgia about georgia rule in of regime. of circus war in two thousand and thirteen was. the was his plays bass ago and probably could well yes and this case some changes could start again the question is who's going to come in his place and what's going to happen i really believe nothing and there

will be no major changes there still will be georgia still will be demanding. the area back and russia will still will not let it do not let it happen but now the question is what's a question was going to happen in line with the political of a constitutional reform and the reason is that circus really will change the constitution the way that the major power in the country will go to the prime minister and the question is if circus would move to the to the prime minister position who is going to be ruling the country and if that will be the case i believe the russia will still stay as the. not any but just to the north a very friendly state towards georgia will work on the first circle surely moving and moving in to the into the office of the president a prime minister will be in the only logical considering that he's feeling more and more positions in the government with his lady friends all of. that

how they work but listen well it's an interesting thing well i mean really. he certainly is a strange guy and he certainly. is is a strange politician but russians russian policy russian political experts many may talk to two european political experts and politicians. different topics and find find grounds of understanding in each of them but not. when they start talking georgian sacrificially so this is at least one thing he did. why why is the figure of this man so important that the even even russian and european experience can't find common grounds of evaluating him or his politics i mean it's interesting you say that because i don't really feel that there is a strong support for mr saakashvili as a person or as

a politician in in the west i mean especially in european countries i don't think he is so strongly supported i mean he has been very critical of the european union and european politicians don't appreciate that. i would say that really there's a lot of emotions obviously between the personalities in russia and in georgia but i don't really feel that that has overlapped too much to the european union i also feel that their current u.s. government is also different than the previous one and that the kind of kind of very strong support that he received in washington under the bush administration has also shifted now. do you think andrea that the reason for that sabean just said is that is that the new book will project is really buried by the europeans. by one thing so i don't think so i mean i see more in the book of the road political issues on the economic domination of course for europe as for their border and also be versifying of the like all of us from i'm sorry it's very

important of course all of this is the economical party and the military i mean people are politic part of the use of force europe doesn't want to depend on we want to europe or mostly or more only on russia or moscow. russia in providing itself with the oil and gas but indian who went back to circus related i believe what europe is doing is really now is trying to sort of like spend some time until his elections because i believe europe and the united states as well already understand that this guy is cannot stand and he this guy he's he's not acceptable he's not acceptable what he's doing is not acceptable and for russia exactly because just because the line all his actions and all his language toward russia i mean means that these guys is the one that we cannot shake hands with sabine does the european union do the european politicians consider russia as a competitor in the caucasus or at least at least considering. the

pipelines yes problems will. i don't know if they would consider russia as a competitor i think that might be a little bit too strong a rule and that word because the problem i think for the european union is that they haven't really decided what they want to do with the caucasus so there isn't really a clear political project in the caucasus and there's a very vague kind of neighborhood policy which exists but it's not it doesn't have much substance and on the energy front either i mean the european union countries haven't come up with a clear energy policy because of the the caucasus so i think that in in many ways europe is looking for a way perhaps to partner with russia on this because it's really looking for help it doesn't have its own clear policy using a clear policy in the carcasses or it's just the general american grab everything you can put your hands on politically at least i think at the beginning there might have been a little bit of that yes a little while back but i think that there is there's been a certain realism that script in even to the u.s.

foreign policy which is that even the u.s. cannot dictate what goes on in the south caucasus country one of the one of the major disagreements between russia and the e.u. concerning the carcass is the is the problem of observers in a policy in south a city and and i think that if we if we try to be frank we should admit that moscow is blocking the presence of foreign observers in these two in these two self-proclaimed countries and as they think or independent countries as we say because russia recognize them so would you admit that and if yes why is that happening you know let me tell you. be. themselves a serious do not have any confidence or an observer say any more real way and the reason for the really two parts were very drawn. by the time of the five days war in two thousand and eight and that was really true they were not be were not

neutral in any case. there was. to be on actually what happened at that time in the sadia that those guys the international observers they knew they knew that something going to happen very soon and what they did what they did they didn't tell nothing to do or to to russians they didn't tell nothing to say to us they just left they just love because they knew that even in a couple of hours the all hell will break loose in that situation so this is not an acceptable. behavior of the international. observers going back to that has a president for example i've been reading in that time probably like one problem before the five year or five days war basically been living in the common use of being basically by the situation in a positive and you have been complaining and you know there is a tension story in two two two two happened there and they said the president

doesn't want to make peace talks with the georgians because on the ground that georgian troops into dorie valley and you say there are no troops there and after two or three weeks after that everybody saw that everybody saw one russian started to attack and georgia's left all this weaponry and have basically been the whole world will soar their war cannons heavy cannons their war anti aerial systems basically saw. they have the troops there you don't seem to recently do you think that. i mean there's two things i would agree with first so i don't think i ever said that because i would never say something unless i had been there and i didn't go up to ecuador it before august you know you didn't say that you saw it but you said the georgian by the international observers reports was one of the eyes at the other thing is that actually us from the from the perspective the international crisis group we were actually predicting that the war would start not so we thought that the war would start there because we believe that the tensions were increasing

between in georgia and sending up us but what i would say about the international observers shows. strongly disagree with you because the o.s.c. was on a daily basis sending back reports saying that the situation was getting worse there were o.s.c. observers who were there until i mean on the night of the aug eighth when the war started so i do believe that the o.s.c. knew what was going on it was informing russia through the representation of russia in vienna and was trying to do what it could but there were only eight observers that were there so what eight observers there's not very much you could do unfortunately many of the member states had asked for there to be more members before but russia had veto that russia did not want there to be more than a very small group of observers and south of setia so i would actually say that no there should be a chance for international monitoring both in south said to an opposition thank you thank you very much both and just a reminder that my guests on the show today were andrei yippie front stuff political scientist and sabine fries and who is the program director of the

international crisis group and that's it for now from all of us here if you want to have your say and spotlight just jump in life would be back with more for us than comments on what's going on in and outside russia until then stay on r.t. and take care thank you.