magine your life on to the big cities. and the friendly. crystal clear water. soft. organic food. living in harmony with nature. sounds impossible. some people have already chosen. a place under the sun on our team. news today violence is once again fled the film these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada. operations or the day.

please show biz the entertainment value of the insel trade it's a nice presentation high production spastically graphics used all of this is a way to try to focus people's attention by using techniques that are associated with that same now during this war we had millions of military entertainment looking. lists. in india in the movie. the gateway hotel the grand imperial trilogy told us to.

go and. read this and the kindle was a hotel treat. single european populations and by rising unemployment meanwhile americans facing similar sleep taking their hardships less seriously. believe alleged russian. is facing charges of full. time court hearing could it lead the single mission to extradite to the let's. look. at turning into mountains of trash and the five and a half million tons of waste has produced many. the capital letter

a small portion of it is recycled. the next one r.t. it saw into the show spotlight this time while going over is joined by two political analysts from the international crisis group and discuss whether reconciliation is possible amidst simmering ethnic tensions in the volatile caucuses region stay with us. hello again or welcome to spotlight the enjoy the show on our tape algor now and today we'll be talking about one of the most dangerous conflict zones on the post soviet space for many years now the caucasus has been a volatile region after the collapse of the soviet union simmering ethnic tensions are matched the conflicts there have taken many lives selling a long lasting confrontation so how do you go about recounts alleviation we'll be

asking political analyst andrei have been found safe and said being fines or who is the europe project director of the international crisis group. sabina fraser says some states in the caucasus have an opportunity for reforms but she says governments are wasting time and money on political intrigues to stay in power and corruption plan churches are the two main factors behind the stick nation of political life in some cooperation states. this region is also an expertise of russian political analyst and the. in his articles and b. has been pointing out what helped build instability in the region. russia europe and the us all have interests in the caucasus where do they overlap and would a joint effort bring peace and stability to the region here also been preserved and under the funds.

hello sabine hello andrei thank you very much for being with us well first of all the tensions in the now going to kind of region. and this is a conflict between. john is seems to be increasing according to the reports we get nearly every day when we have new problems new conflict going on there so what do you see as the reason for this escalation of tension. now i get it. while. to tell you the truth is i don't believe that there is an increase of the tension there but we have to see that in all be peace negotiation talks came to . deadlock and to some stalemate. all the efforts of the international community of that has been you know taken for the last year and a half actually came to the stalemate and would have to take board to take into account be military were thore military

a language that was used for the last year basically i believe that to some extent that language was used for the let's say internal part purposes but in any case i believe we have to take it seriously we have to take it seriously i. with the help i would hope and the real you thing that you know the war world war break out they are because all things are actually sure that there will be no war but only god could know what's going to happen especially if you have to organise that in the front of each other were even like you know the simple shot can spark the military town but in any case i believe the georgian by the legs a general more and sober my journal azerbaijan should know and will not start the war because technically this is what the military analysts. could win that war would be all saying enjoy among boys crick and slugs. for

this is. we recently saw a tense. on the side of turkey to improve relations with armenia and this process has been pretty successful and to hear about it also is trying to improve relations with a way with with it so their neighbor couldn't this results in a new attempt from baquba to tighten its position on the kind of. an incredible reaction correct what we have seen in the past year and a half was a reconciliation between turkey and armenia with the signing of two prata calls which would potentially have opened the border between turkey and armenia but also a lot of other things to help improve the relationships between the two countries especially established historical commission which would have dealt with all kinds of different conflicts between turkey and armenia but potentially also the issues that happened at the turn at the beginning of last century so that was

a positive momentum that is something that really could help change the dynamics in the in the southern caucasus build a certain amount of confidence especially in armenia because one of the things that the armenians are concerned about of course is their security and what they're there worried about is you have a repeat of history with turkey but also they see the azerbaijani. as kind of turks so they're worried that if if if something goes wrong that actually they be attacked on two fronts on the turkish branch and i was johnny front so here the reconciliation with turkey could have really built some confidence in armenia and even though the two processes resolution and going to and turkey reconciliation are not linked it's clear that if there was improvement in turkey armenia reconciliation this could help create an environment which would have made compromise easier in armenia do you agree with andrew that the tensions in the globe in the kind of region are not really increasing they just sort of frozen well i think that the tensions are increased increase in the sense that there are there

are more incidents the problem is it's very difficult to understand exactly what's going on on the frontline because we don't have really a team of international observers except a very very small o.s.c. presence but we don't have a regular international presence that can tell us what's going on so basically when you have some kind of exchange of fire the armenians say it's the as areas who did the as there is say it's the armenians and so nobody really knows what's going on difference of how seriously do you think a book who is considering a military option as a solution in a court in the kind of a humiliation blitzkrieg do you think do you think it could it could really. become in the region not a chance not a single chance. like i've been saying and what the military analysts are saying that who doesn't have it she doesn't stand a chance to just to make this more a blue screen because the positions on the frontline and in forty five that much that the reasonable way to win the war like in five or seven days so what's going

to happen is going to be the law you know just for all shows war and these cues in this case the international community was jumping on and will make the important be the parties will make them to stop and please don't forget that azerbaijan in a way is the very vulnerable state in case the. the war because it has a huge it's basically it's their life by it's a brain cell it's all four of something's going to happen with one pirates and. mystical would be international community which really depends on goals or on the gas and or abuse or cruel mechanisms on stop further i elected comments of the possible back as a reaction on the foreign policies of rimini as well. as people in russia or me in your relations in august russia russia has reached an agreement with the meaning to to extend the lease of russian military base also also russia has confirmed its

commitment to defend through lean year if a meaning is assaulted if it's attacked how do you think this agreement and says seen in baquba and how may this affect the relations between between azerbaijan and view of course this this news of the signature of this agreement was heard with quite a bit of alarm in by cool. people saw this very much as russia taking sides as russia deciding that if there was a war it would jump in the defense of armenia the way it was interpreted in baku was that if azerbaijan did decide to try to regain its occupied territories then that russia would actually defend armenia so this is an issue that i've actually been discussing here in moscow trying to understand what the russian position is and what i've understood is that russia does not mean this as a kind of promise to armenia that it would actually defend armine if there was an attack russia i think is in a good position that it's trying to be an equal mediator in the area and not really trying to take sides pro armenian or present or johnny but the azerbaijanis do see

it as a union rule experts in moscow and putting this in the studio have criticized moscow for not having any foreign policy and on the post soviet space now russia seems to seems to have a few. foreign policy for example after signing this agreement in august then in september the russian president visited back to have talks with mr elie of do you think andrey that that medvedev was able to convince the leader of that that that the russian foreign policy is a virus that least. you know i think. i think mr nevada cannot do that and i believe that a server drown in a will be fair and that russia at least somewhat is taking part there and the last theorem is live somewhat on the side of armenia because we're strategic partners reserve meaning but on the other hand we have to say that the us west with huge importance was zero but we're not enemies reserve judgment and gone back to the

issue of russia and treated what we were known two months ago and everything i believe in that situation is a sort of public commitment done by russia saying that hey guys are not just we really want you to make i mean we really stand like on defense of our media but at the same time because. of this treaty is northrop wars over jobs and our boy of this is sort of wired public commitment saying that hey guys world the founder mean it but you guys have to sit together and make peace i mean to to get to the conclusion that when you sell the question is will the russians fight a miserable john i would say no i mean. and said no no this is so if medved have. wasn't able to convince elie of that moscow isn't biased so do you think moscow really is a biased in favor of armenia rather than but who at least in the near got to kind

of back reason or what's your approach. i'm not sure if i can say that moscow is really biased in favor of armenia but i do think that moscow has a tremendous amount of influence of armenia and that down at this point in it we are in a very sensitive moment in the negotiations on president. medvedev has been actively personally involved so what he might be able to do is provide some kind of support to the armenian leadership so that the armenian leadership can take the necessary steps to sign the basic principle agreement that's now being discussed so i think that here maybe there can be also some kind of war public. i would say vision of russia in armenia that is supporting this and encouraging armenia to move forward obviously both sides need to be encouraged but i think that really now it's really armenia that needs the kind of extra push on to agree to make their agreement possible say sabean frizer and the peace process spotlight will be back shortly

right after the break will continue this interview south stay with us and. welcome back to the spotlight i'm al green of and just to remind you that my guests today are sabine frizer and the hippie france and we're talking about the situation

situation in the caucus this which is pretty tense especially in the govern the kind of back where where the as everybody soldiers and the armenian soldiers are confronting each other and as andrew said a single provocation a single bullet can cause a full scale war. the reason. behind most of the authors today nearly all of the congress probably. is money economics so. mr elliott the president of azerbaijan has recently signed an agreement with saakashvili the georgian leader about the direct shipment of the as a read gas to romania at the same time he has an agreement with gazprom russian company committing as everybody on to sell its gas to the russian company all these two commitments seem to be contradictory seem to be have a conflict within them but europe should love it. such kind of

a contradiction in what we just say but as you suggest i think i have said love and i think a lot of spa there if he was still alive would love it even more because the whole point further john is to have a kind of multifactor foreign policy a lot of extra energy policy they would they would like to make sure that they diversify their buyers so that way they are really needed by everybody so i think that it's really it is actually doing a pretty good job for his country in terms of diversification and maintaining influence it's only maintaining influence it's only surviving in a world surrounded by superpowers or is it trying really to create a russian alliance because because some observers think that saakashvili is touring and pretty successfully too to get involved in a sort of anti rationalize what would do you share this impression norma's realize take it as a real economic more for

a very gentle standpoint are completely back our plan of sabrina from the germans or madrone or standpoint he's doing the right things he's very war so far in the grooves of transportation of oil and gas so i do not see any political pro-tax there. but that's actually president of georgia will europe support for circus feely remain and conditions in the forseeable future what we see i don't think that europe support for president saakashvili is unconditional i mean i don't think it has been i don't think it will be either right now what will be interesting to see in georgia is there actually engaged in a constitutional reform process so it will be very interesting i think here the european union member countries will be looking very closely at georgia to see if the country can move forwards towards a more democratic system with a more a stronger parliamentary system or whether it's going to somehow strengthen the potential hand of presence actually so i think this is a moment where everybody will be looking at georgia and actually testing georgia

and. the same question to you mr van so will will the hatred of moscow towards satisfy really remain unconditional may russia may russia somehow somehow restart bullish relations with. until he's in power well of course by. one sarkozy who always in power russia will remain russia will remain i said be the enemy of i'm not saying georgia about georgia rule in of regime. of circus war in two thousand and thirteen war. was his plays better go and probably you will yes and this case some changes could start a again the question is who's going to come in his place and what's going to happen i really believe nothing will be no major changes they still will be georgia still will be demanding. the area back and russia will still will not let it do not let

it happen but now the question is what's a question was going to happen in line with the political of a constitutional reform and the reason is that circus really will change the constitution the way that the major power in the country will go to be proud. minister the question is if circus would move to the to the prime minister position who is going to be ruling the country if that will be the case i believe the russia will still stay the. not. just. north of the friendly state towards georgia will loan the first circles surely moving and moving in to the into the office of the prime of prime minister would be only only logical considering that he's feeling more and more positions in the government with his lady friends of. the world but listen well it's an interesting thing well i mean circus really. he certainly is a strange guy and he certainly is is

a strange politician but russians russian politics russian political experts many may talk to two european political experts and politicians on different topics and find find grounds of understanding in each of them but not. when they start talking georgian sacrificially so this is at least one thing he did why why is the figure of this man so important that the even even russian and european expres can't find common grounds of evaluating him or his politics i mean it's interesting you say that because i don't really feel that there is a strong support for mr saakashvili as a person or as a politician in in the west i mean especially in european countries i don't think he is so strongly supported i mean he has been very critical of the european union and european politicians don't appreciate that. and i would say that really there's

a lot of emotions obviously between the personalities in russia and in georgia but i don't really feel that that has overlapped too much to the european union i also feel that they're currently. this government is also different than the previous one and that the kind of kind of very strong support that he received in washington under the bush administration has also shifted now. do you think andrei that the reason for that simply just said is that is that the new book will project is really buried by the europeans. by one thing so i don't think so i mean i see more in the book of the road political issues on the economic levers of course for europe as for their budget and also be diversifying of the local all of grassroots are is very important of course for this is the economical party and the military i mean people are politic part of that is of course europe doesn't want to depend on we want to europe or mostly or more only on russia or mostly on russia in providing

itself with the oil and gas but again going back to circus related i believe what europe is doing is really now is trying to sort of like spend some time until his elections because i believe europe and the united states as well already understand that this guy is i mean it cannot stand i mean he this guy he's he's not acceptable he's not acceptable what he's doing is not acceptable and for russia exactly because just because the line all his actions and all his language toward russia i mean means that these guys is the one that we cannot shake hands with sabine does the european union do european politicians consider russia as a competitor in the caucasus or at least at least considering. the pipelines yes problems you know. i don't know if they would consider russia as a competitor i think that might be a little bit too strong a rule and that word because the problem i think for the european union is that

they haven't really decided what they want to do with the caucasus so there isn't really a clear political project in the caucasus and there is a very vague kind of neighborhood policy which exists but it's not it doesn't have much substance and on the energy front either i mean the european union countries haven't come up with a clear energy policy views of the caucasus so i think that in in many ways europe is looking for a way perhaps to partner with russia on this because it's really looking for help it doesn't have its own clear policy using a clear policy in the carcasses or it's just the general american grab everything you can put your hands on politically at least i think at the beginning there might have been a little bit of that yes a little while back but i think that there is there's been a certain realism that script in even to the u.s. foreign policy which is that even the u.s. cannot dictate what goes on in the south caucasus and one of the one of the major disagreements between russia and the e.u. concerning the cognisance is the is the problem of e.u.

observers in their policy and south of setia and and i think that if we if we try to be frank we should admit that moscow is blocking the presence of foreign observers in these two in these two self-proclaimed countries and as they think more independent countries as we say because russia recognize them so would you admit that and if yes why is that happening you know let me. be. themselves a serious do not have any confidence in the observers anymore railway and the reason for the really two parts were verge or. the time of the five days war in two thousand and that was really true they were not be were not neutral in any case. to be on actually what happened at that time in the sadia that those guys the international observers they knew they knew that something going to happen very

soon and what they did what they did they didn't tell nothing to do or to to russians they didn't tell mother to say as they just left they just love because they knew that even in a couple of hours the all hell will break loose in that situation so this is not an acceptable. behavior of the international. observers going back to it has a present for example of being read in that time probably like one problem months before that the five year or five days war basically been leading the common use of being basically by the situation in a positive and you have been complaining and you know there is a tension story in two two two two happened there and they said the president doesn't want to make peace talks with the georgians because on the ground that georgian troops into dorie valley and you see there are no troops there and after

two or three weeks after the birth everybody saw that everybody saw one russian started to attack and georgians left all this weaponry and have basically been the whole world will saw the war cannons heavy cannons there were. systems basically is saw. they have the troops there you don't seem to release to be doing . i mean there's two things they when agree with first so i don't think i ever said that because i would never say something unless i had been there and i didn't go up to ecuador or before august you know i didn't say that you saw it but you said the georgian by the international observers reports was my eyes at the other thing is that actually us from the from the perspective the international crisis group we were actually predicting that the war would start not so we thought that the war would start there because we believe that the tensions were increasing between and georgians ending up but what i would say about the international observers shows. strongly disagree with you because the o.s.c. was on a daily basis sending back reports saying that the situation was getting worse

there were o.s.c. observers who were there until i mean on the night of the aug eighth when the war started so i do believe that the o.s.c. knew what was going on it was informing russia through the representation of russia in vienna and was trying to do what it could but there were only eight observers that were there so with eight observers there is not very much you could do unfortunately many of the member states had asked for there to be more members before but russia had vetoed that russia did not want there to be more than a very small group of observers and south of setia so i would actually say that no there should be a chance for international monitoring both in south said to an opposition thank you thank you very much both and just a reminder that my guests on the show today were andrei your profound stuff political scientist and sabine prize and who is the program director of the international crisis group and that's it for now from all of us here if you want to have your say and spotlight just drop me a line would be back with more firsthand comments on what's going on in and outside

russia until then stay on r.t. and take care thank you.