stop. hyperinflation and i think things are going to turn very ugly to tell you the truth right so krugman is an academic he's trying to argue in some logical way how to create inflation to a group of bankers that are just ignoring what he's saying and stealing the money causing deflation until they've stolen all the money and then you have a currency collapse or hyperinflation so he's basically volcker was a guy who went to a gun fight with a gun instead of you know bernanke is going to a gun fight with a knife was not going to win all right so you can call it thanks so much for being on the kaiser report thank you so much for having me on and i really enjoyed this conversation already and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with max kaiser and stacey harbor and i want to thank my guests lire if you want to send me an e-mail please do so at kaiser report at r t t v dot ru until next time this is nice guys are saying by.

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in serbia is available in regency. three thirty am in moscow good to have you with us here on our t.v. using your headlines the family of alleged russian illegal arms trade fears for his wife if he's extradited to the u.s. after a thai court this mission dismisses fresh charges brought by washington who could face life in prison if convicted in the u.s. he's been in a bangkok jail since his arrest in two thousand and eight. the u.k. ministry of defense comes under fire for leading records of its campaign in afghanistan making it impossible to investigate cases of misconduct by soldiers the ministry claims it's standard practice to delete some documents after deployment

but anti-war advocates say it smacks of a cover up. an advertising campaign backfires badly on eco campaign is trying to cut carbon emissions major backers have now pulled their support and expressed disappointment over the cinema's drop the commercials that featured bloody images just hours after the. interview show spotlight this time host by two political analysts from the international crisis group they discuss of reconciliation is possible amidst the simmering ethnic tension in the volatile caucasus region stay with us. culture is that so much of the taxpayers' money i mean when i say yeah i'm a real mystery priest all of us are trying to figure their neighbors and game a leg up for their exports by cheapening their currency if left unchecked.

hello again are welcome to spotlight the n.t.v. show an hour to eat an album now and today we'll be talking about one of the most dangerous conflict zones on the post soviet space for many years now the caucasus has been a volatile region after the collapse of the soviet union simmering ethnic tensions have matched the conflicts there have taken many lives selling long lasting confrontation so how do you go about re consolation we'll be asking political analyst and radio and said being frizer who is the europe project director of the international crisis group. sabina frazer says some states in the caucasus have an opportunity for reforms but she says governments are wasting time and money

on political intrigues to stay in power corruption plan churches as well the two main factors behind the stick nation of political life in some coke asian states. this region is also an expertise of russian political analyst under the influence of in his articles and day has been pointing out what helped build instability in the region. russia europe and the us all have interests in the caucasus where do they overlap and would a joint effort bring peace and stability to the region here also be an appraiser and under the funds. hello sabine hello antony thank you very much for being with us well first of all the tensions in the not good in the kind of bad region. and this is a continent between only india and decided by john is seems to be increasing according to the reports we get nearly every day when we have reports of of new

problems new conflict going on there so what do you see as the reason for this escalation of tension. that's going to have. what. to tell the truth is i don't believe that there is any increase of the tension there but we have to see that in all be peace negotiation talks came to a deadlock and to some stalemate the all the efforts of the international community that has been you know taken for the last year and a half actually came to the stalemate and would have to take the tack to take into account be military were thore military a language that was used for the last year basically i believe that to some extent that language was used for the internal part purposes but in any case i believe we have to take it seriously we have to take it seriously i. would help i would help i'm a real your thing that you know the war world war break out they are because all things

are trollish or that there will be more war but only god could know what's going to happen especially if you have to organise stand in the front of each other were even like you know the simple shot could spark the military attack but in any case i believe the georgian by the legs a general more and sober my. should not and will not start the war because technically this is what the military analysts. could win that war would be an all sane enjoyment blitzkrieg that slides. for basic this is. we recently saw a tense. on the side of turkey to improve relations with armenia and this process has been pretty successful and hear about it also is trying to improve relations with a way with with it so their neighbor couldn't this results in

a new attempt from baquba to tighten its position on the kind of. i mean currently action correct what we have seen in the past year and a half was reconciliation between turkey and armenia with the signing of two prata calls which would potentially have opened the border between turkey and armenia but also a lot of other things to help improve the relationships between the two countries especially established historical commission which would have dealt with all kinds of different conflicts between turkey and armenia but potentially also the issues that happened at the turn at the beginning of last century so that was a positive momentum that is something that really could help change the dynamics in the in the southern caucasus build a certain amount of confidence especially in armenia because one of the things that the armenians are concerned about of course is their security and what their they're worried about is you have a repeat of history with turkey but also they see the azerbaijani. kind of turks so they're worried that if if if something goes wrong that actually they be attacked

on two fronts on the turkish french and others but johnny front so here are the reconciliation with turkey could have really built some confidence in armenia and even though the two processes resolution is going to come out and turkey reconciliation are not linked it's clear that if there was improvement in turkey armenia reconciliation this could help create an environment which would have made compromise easier in armenia do you agree with andrew that the tensions in good in the kind of region are not really increasing they just sort of frozen well i think that the tensions are increased increase in the sense that there are there are more incidents the problem is it's very difficult to understand exactly what's going on on the frontline because we don't have really a team of international observers except a very very small o.s.c. presence but we don't have a regular international presence that can tell us what's going on so basically when you have some kind of exchange of fire the armenians say it's the as areas who did the say it's the armenians and so nobody really knows what's going on difference of

how seriously do you think a book who is considering a military option as a solution in the court in the kind of a human blitzkrieg do you think do you think it could it could really. become in the region not a chance not a single chance. like i've been saying and what the military analysts are saying that doesn't have it she doesn't stand a chance to to make this more a blue screen because the positions on the frontline in a fortune five hundred far brought much that the reasonable way to wind up war like in five or seven days so what's going to happen is going to be you know just for all show us war and these cues in this case the international community was jumping on will make the important be the parties will make it will make them to stop and please don't forget that azerbaijan in a way is the very vulnerable state in case the. the war because it has a huge bicycle it's their life by it's a brain cell it's

a ball for of something's going to happen with pirates and us both been sick of the international community which really depends on board or on the gas and or be a circle of americans and when john stop further i look to comments of the possible back as a reaction on the foreign currencies of rimini as well. as people rush early in your relations in august russia russia has reached an agreement with a meaning to to extend the lease of russian military base also also russia has confirmed its commitment to defend through mean year if a meaning is assaulted if it's attacked how do you think this agreement and says seen in baquba how may this affect the relations between between azerbaijan and armenia of course there's this news of the signature of this agreement was heard with quite a bit of alarm in by cool. people saw this very much as russia taking sides as

russia deciding that if there was a war it would jump in the defense of armenia the way it was interpreted in baku was that if azerbaijan did decide to try to regain its occupied territories then that russia would actually defend armenia so this is an issue that i've actually been discussing here in moscow trying to understand what the russian position is and what i've understood is that russia does not mean this as a kind of promise to armenia that it would actually defend armenia if there was an attack russia i think is in a good position that it's trying to be an equal mediator in the area and not really trying to take sides pro armenian or poor as a bridge johnny but the azerbaijanis do see it as a union rule experts in moscow putting this in the studio have criticized moscow for not having any foreign policy and on the post soviet space now russia seems to seems to have a few. foreign policy for example after signing this agreement in august then in

september the russian president visited back to have talks with mr elie of do you think andrey that that medvedev was able to convince the leader of that that that the russian foreign policy is a virus at least. you know i think. i think mr nevada cannot do the voice of that service drown in a will be different from that russia at least somewhat a sticking point there on the north the them is like someone on the side of armenia because we're strategic partners with armenia but on the other hand we have to say that the u.s. we're strategic partners with zero but we're not enemies reserve judgment and gone back to the issue of russia and treated what were known two months ago and everything i believe in that situation is a sort of public commitment done by russia saying that hey guys are not just we really want you to make i mean we really stand like on defense of our media but at the same time because. this treaty is north or outdoors. and

our boy of this is sort of loud public commitment saying that hey guess what will the founder mean it but you guys have to sit together and make peace i mean to to get to the conclusion that when you sell the question is will the russians fight in those herbal john i would say no i mean. and said no not. so if medved have. wasn't able to convince allie of that moscow isn't biased so do you think it really is a biased in favor of the army rather than the cool at least in the near got to kind of back reason or what's your approach. i'm not sure if i can say that moscow is really biased in favor of armenia but i do think that moscow has a tremendous amount of influence of armenia and that down at this point in it we are in a very sensitive moment in the negotiations our president. medvedev has been actively personally involved so what he might be able to do is provide some kind of support

to the armenian leadership so that the armenian leadership can take the necessary steps to sign the basic principle agreement that's now being discussed so i think that here maybe there can be also some kind of war public. i would say vision of russia in armenia that is supporting this and encouraging armenia to move forward obviously both sides need to be encouraged but i think that really now it's really armenia that needs the kind of extra push to agree to make their agreement possible say so be that frizer and the spotlight will be back shortly right after the break will continue this interview south stay with us and.

every month we give you the future we'll do understand how to get there and what tomorrow brings the best in science and technology from across russia and around the world. knowledge update on our jeep. welcome back to spotlight i'm al green of and just to remind you that my guests today are in sabine frizer and on the heap in france and we're talking about the situation situation in the caucasus which is pretty tense especially in the got in the kind of back where where the as everybody soldiers and the armenian soldiers are confronting each other and as andrew said a single provocation

a single bullet can cause a full scale war. the reason. behind most of the conflicts today of the congress probably. is money economics. mr elliott the president of azerbaijan has recently signed an agreement with saakashvili the georgian leader about the direct shipment of the as a regards to romania at the same time he has an agreement with gazprom russian company committing as everybody on to so gas to the russian company all these two commitments seem to be contradictory seem to be have a conflict within them but europe should love it. such kind of a contradiction in what we just say but as you suggest i think i should love it and i think a lot of spa there if he was still alive would love it even more because the whole point further john is to have a kind of multifactor foreign policy

a lot of actor energy policy they would they would like to make sure that they diversify their buyers so that way they are really needed by everybody so i think that it's really it is actually doing a pretty good job for his country in terms of diversification and maintaining influence it's only maintaining influence it's only surviving in the world surrounded by superpowers or is it trying really to create a russian alliance because because some observers think that saakashvili destroying and pretty successfully too to get involved in a sort of anti russian alliance what we. do share this impression norma's realize take it as a real economic more for a very vigilant standpoint are completely back our plan of sabrina from the germans or madrone a standpoint he's doing the right things he's very war so far in the roots of our transportation of war on the us so i do not see any political pro-tax there.

but that's actually president of georgia. europe's support for circus feeley remain and conditions in the end have received a future what we see i don't think that europe support for presence actually is unconditional i mean i don't think it has been i don't think it it will be either right now what will be interesting to see in georgia is there actually engaged in a constitutional reform process so it will be very interesting and i think here the european union member countries will be looking very closely at georgia to see if the country can move forwards towards a more democratic system with a more a stronger parliamentary system or whether it's going to somehow strengthen the potential hand of presence actually so i think this is a moment where everybody will be looking at georgia and actually testing georgia and. the same question to you mr van so will will the hatred of moscow towards satisfy really remain unconditional may russia may russia somehow send her

restyle bullish relations with. until he's in power well of course. until one circus will is in power russia will remain russia will remain as had been the enemy of i'm not saying georgia about georgia rule in a version. of circus war in two thousand and thirteen was. the was his plays bass ago and probably you will yes and this case some changes could start a again the question is who's going to come in his place and what's going to happen i really believe nothing and there will be no major changes there still will be georgia still will be demanding. salia back and russia will still will not let it do not let it happen but now the question is what's going to happen in line with the political of a constitutional reform and the reason she has the circus really will change the constitution the way that the major power in the country will go to the prime

minister and the question is if circus would move to the. to the prime minister position who's going to be ruling the country that will be because i believe the russia will steal the. anybody but just. north of the friendly state towards georgia we're on the first circle surely moving and moving in to the into the office of the prime prime minister would be only a logical considering that he's feeling more and more positions in the government with his lady friends of. the world but listen well it's an interesting thing well i mean circus really. he certainly is a strange guy and he certainly is is a strange politician but russians russian politics russian political experts many may talk to two european political experts and politicians. different topics and

find find grounds of understanding each other but not. when they start talking georgian sacrificially so this is at least one thing he did. why why is the figure of this man so will poor and that even even russian and european expres can't find common grounds of evaluating him or his politics i mean it's interesting you say that because i don't really feel that there is a strong support for mr saakashvili as a person or as a politician in in the west i mean especially in european countries i don't think he is so strongly supported i mean he has been very critical of the european union and european politicians don't appreciate that. i would say that really there's a lot of emotions obviously between the personalities in russia and in georgia but i don't really feel that that has overlapped too much to the european union i also

feel that their current us government is also different than the previous one and that the kind. kind of a very strong support that he received in washington under the bush administration has also shifted now. do you think andrei that the reason for that simply just said is that is that the new book will project is really buried by the europeans. by one thing so i don't think so i mean i see more in the book of the road political issues than the canonical version of course for europe as for their budget and also be diversifying of the local or grassroots are is very important of course for this is the economical party and the military i mean the people of politic part of that is of course europe doesn't want to depend only want to europe or mostly or more only on russia or mostly on russia in providing itself with the oil and gas but again going back to circus related circus really believe what europe is doing is really now is trying to sort of light spend some time until his elections because i believe europe and the united states as well already understand

that this guy is i mean it cannot stand i mean he this guy he's he's not acceptable he's not acceptable what he's doing is not acceptable and for russia exactly because just because the line all his actions and all his language toward russia i mean means that these guys is the one that we cannot shake hands with sabine does the european union do the european politicians consider russia as a competitor in the caucasus or at least at least considering. the pipelines yes problems will. i don't know if they would consider russia as a competitor i think that might be a little bit too strong a rule and that word because the problem i think for the european union is that they haven't really decided what they want to do with the caucasus so there isn't really a clear political project in the caucasus and there's a very vague kind of neighborhood policy which exists but it's not it doesn't have

much substance and on the energy front either i mean the european union countries haven't come up with a clear energy policy because of the the caucasus so i think that in in many ways europe is looking for a way perhaps to partner with russia on this because it's really looking for help it doesn't have its own clear policy using a clear policy in the carcasses or it's just the general american grab everything you can put your hands on politically at least i think at the beginning there might have been a little bit of that yes a little while back but i think that there is there's been a certain realism that script in even to the u.s. foreign policy which is that even the u.s. cannot dictate what goes on in the south caucasus and one of the one of the major disagreements between russia and the e.u. concerning the cognisance is the is the problem of observers in a policy in south a city and and i think that if we if we try to be frank we should admit that moscow is blocking the presence of foreign observers in these two in these two

self-proclaimed countries as they think or independent countries as we say because russia recognize them so would you admit that and if yes why is that happening you know let me. be positive and solves the serious do not have any confidence in the european observers anymore really the reason for the really two parts were verge order. by the time of the five days war in two thousand and eight and that was really true they were not we were not neutral in any case. there support was. to be and actually what happened at that time in the sadia that those guys the international observers they knew they knew that something going to happen very soon and what they did what they did they didn't tell nothing to do or to or to russians they didn't tell nothing to say and they just left they just love because they knew that even in a couple of hours the all hell will break loose in that situation so this is not an

acceptable. behavior of the international. observers going back to it has a president for example i've been reading in that time probably like one problem before that the five years or five days war basically been leading the common use of being basically about the situation in a positive and you've been complaining you know there is a tension story in two two two two happened there and they said the president doesn't want to make peace talks with the georgians because on the ground that georgian troops could dorie valley and you say there are no troops there and after two or three weeks after the birth everybody saw that everybody saw one russian started to attack and georgians left all this weaponry and basically be whole world will saw the war cannons heavy cannons there were aerial systems basically

saw. they have the troops there you don't seem to release that we do think that. i mean there's two things i would agree with first so i don't think i ever said that because i would never say something unless i had been there and i didn't go up to ecuador it before august you know you didn't say that you saw it but you said the georgian by the international observers reports was my eyes the other thing is that actually us from the from the perspective the international crisis group we were actually predicting that the war would start not so we thought that the war would start there because we believe that the tensions were increasing between in georgia and sending up but what i would say about international observers shows. strongly disagree with you because the o.s.c. was on a daily basis sending back reports saying that the situation was getting worse there were o.s.c. observers who were there until i mean on the night of the aug eighth when the war started so i do believe that the o.s.c. knew what was going on it was informing russia through the representation of russia in vienna and was trying to do what it could but there were only eight observers

that were there so with eight observers there's not very much you could do unfortunately many of the member states had asked for there to be more members before but russia had veto that russia did not want there to be more than a very small group of observers and south of set you so i would actually say that no there should be a chance for international monitoring both in south said to an opposition thank you thank you very much both and just a reminder that my guest on the show today andrei the fun stuff political scientist and sabine prize in who's the program director of the international crisis group and that's it for now from all of us here if you want to have your say and spotlight just jump in a lot back with more first time comments on what's going on in and outside russia until then stay on r.t. and take care thank you.