by. the book. that.

five am in moscow these iraqi headlines family of the alleged russian illegal arms dealers victor boot fears for his life if he's extradited to the u.s. after a thai court dismisses fresh charges brought by washington who could face life behind bars if convicted in the state he's been held in bangkok jail since his arrest in two thousand and eight. the u.k.'s ministry of defense under fire for the leading records of its campaign in afghanistan making it impossible to investigate cases of misconduct by soldiers claims it's standard practice to delete some documents after the point but anti-war advocates say it smacks of a cover up. an advertising campaign backfires badly on the eco campaigners trying

to cut carbon emissions major backers have now pulled their support and expressed disappointment over the cinema has dropped the commercials that featured bloody images only hours after they were released. up next it's our interview show spotlight this time host al gore and others joined by two political analysts from the international crisis group they talk about of reconciliation is possible and that's the simmering ethnic tension in the volatile caucasus region stay with us here on r.t. . culture is that so much of the taxpayers' money i mean when i sit here in the real story. all of us are trying to begin their neighbors and gain a leg up for their exports by cheapening their currency if left unchecked.

hello again they're welcome to spotlight the n.t.v. show on our tape album now and today we'll be talking about one of the most dangerous conflict zones on the post soviet space for many years now the caucasus has been a volatile region after the collapse of the soviet union simmering ethnic tensions are matched the conflicts there have taken many lives selling long lasting confrontation so how do you go about three consolation we'll be asking political analyst andrei u.b. from theft and said being fines or who is the euro project director of the international crisis group. sabina fraser says some states in the caucasus have an opportunity for reforms but she says governments are wasting time and money on political intrigues to stay in power corruption plan churches as well the two main factors behind the stick nation of political life in some coke asian states.

this region is also an expertise of russian political analyst under the influence of in his articles on de has been pointing out what helped build instability in the region. russia europe and the us all have interests in the caucasus where do they overlap and would a joint effort bring peace and stability to the region here also being frazer and underneath the funds. hello sabine hello antony thank you very much for being with us well first of all the tensions in the not good in the kind of bad region. and this is a conflict between me and stated by john is seems to be increasing according to the reports we get nearly every day when we had reports of a new problems new conflict going on there so what do you see as the reason for

this escalation of tension. that's going to have. what. to tell the truth is i don't believe that there is any increase of the tension there but we have to see that in all be peace negotiation talks came to a deadlock and to some stalemate the all the efforts of the international community that has been you know taking for the last year and a half actually came to the stalemate and we have to take the tack to take into account be military were thore military a language that was used for the last year basically i believe that to some extent that language was used for the internal part purposes but in any case i believe we have to take it seriously we have to take it seriously i. would help would help i'm a real you thing that you know the war world war break out they are because all things are actually sure that there will be no war but only god could know what's

going to happen especially if you have to organise stand in front of each other were even like you know the simple shot could spark the military town but in any case i believe the georgian by the legs a general more and sober my. should not and doesn't and will not start the war because technically this is what the military analysts. could win that war would be an all sane enjoy among blitzkrieg you hear that's like. war this is. we recently saw a tense. on the side of turkey to improve relations with armenia and this process has been pretty successful and here about it also is trying to improve relations with a way with with it so their neighbor couldn't this results in the new attempts from baquba to tighten its position on the kind of outreach and encourage reaction

correct what we have seen in the past year and a half was a reconciliation between turkey and armenia with the signing of two prata calls which would potentially have opened the border between turkey and armenia but also a lot of other things to help improve the relationships between the two countries especially establishing historical commission which would have dealt with all kinds of different conflicts between turkey and armenia but potentially also the issues that happened at the turn at the beginning of last century so that was a positive momentum that is something that really could help change the dynamics in the in the southern caucasus build a certain amount of confidence especially in armenia because one of the things that the armenians are concerned about of course is their security and what they're there worried about is you have a repeat of history with turkey but also they see the azerbaijani. as kind of turks so they're worried that if if if something goes wrong that actually they be attacked on two fronts on the turkish french and others but johnny front so here

the reconciliation with turkey could have really built some confidence in armenia and even though the two processes resolution and going to and turkey armenia reconciliation are not linked it's clear that if there was improvement in turkey armenia reconciliation this could help create an environment which would have made compromise easier in armenia do you agree with andrew that the tensions in the globe in the kind of region are not really increasing they just sort of frozen well i think of the tensions are increased or decreased in the sense that there are there are more incidents the problem is it's very difficult to understand exactly what's going on on the frontline because we don't have really a team of international observers except a very very small o.s.c. presence but we don't have a regular international presence that can tell us what's going on so basically when you have some kind of exchange of fire the armenians say it's the as areas who did the as there is say it's the armenians and so nobody really knows what's going on of how seriously do you think a book who is considering a military option as

a solution in the court in the kind of documentation blitzkrieg do you think do you think it can it could really. become in the region not a chance not a single chance. like i've been saying and what the military analysts are saying that doesn't have a choice doesn't stand a chance to just to make this more a blue screen because the positions on the frontline and in forty five that much that the reasonable way to win the war like in five or seven days so what's going to happen is going to be the law you know just for all shows war and these cues in this case the international community was jumping on will make the important be the parties will make them to stop and please don't forget that azerbaijan in a way is the very vulnerable state in case the. the war because it has a huge bicycle it's their life by it's a brain cell it's a ball for of if something's going to happen with one pirates and. mystical the

international community which really depends on balls or on the gas and or abuse or coup of america's image and stop further i elected comments of the possible back as a reaction on the foreign currencies of rimini as well. as people in russia or me in your relations in august russia russia has reached an agreement with the mean you have to to extend the lease of russian military base also also russia has confirmed its commitment to defend through menier if a meaning is assaulted if it's attacked how do you think this agreement and says seen in baquba and how may this affect the relations between between azerbaijan and your view of course this this news of the signature of this agreement was heard with quite a bit of alarm in by cool. people saw this very much as russia taking sides as russia deciding that if there was a war it would jump in the defense of armenia the way it was interpreted in baku

was that if azerbaijan did decide to try to regain its occupied territories then that russia would actually defend armenia so this is an issue that i've actually been discussing here in moscow trying to understand what the russian position is and what i've understood is that russia does not mean this as a kind of promise to armenia that it would actually defend armenia if there was an attack russia i think is in a good position that it's trying to be an equal mediator in the area and not really trying to take sides pro armenian or poor as a bridge or any but the azerbaijanis do see it as a union rule experts in moscow and putting this in the studio have criticized moscow for not having any foreign policy and on the post soviet space now russia seems to seems to have a few. foreign policy for example after signing this agreement in august then in september the russian president visited back to have talks with mr elie of the thing and really that that medvedev was able to to convince the leader of that that

that the russian foreign policy is a virus that least. you know i think. i think mr nevada cannot do that and i believe that a server drown in a will be a friend that russia at least somewhat is taking part there and the north is like somewhat on the side of armenia because we're strategic partners with armenia but on the other hand we have to say that the us we're strategic partners with zero but we're not enemies reserve and gone back to the issue of russia and treated what we were known two months ago and everything i believe in that situation is a sort of public commitment bomba russia saying that hey guys are not just we really want you to make i mean we really stand like on defense of our media but at the same time because. this treaty is no threat wars are belgium and our boy of this is sort of large public commitment saying that hey guys what will

the founder mean it but you guys have to sit together and make peace i mean the to get to the conclusion that when you sell the question is will the russians fight in those herbal john i would say no i mean. and said no not. so if medvedev. wasn't able to convince a leave that moscow isn't biased so do you think moscow really is a biased in favor of the army rather than the cool at least in the near got to kind of back reason or what's your approach. i'm not sure if i can say that moscow is really biased in favor of armenia but i do think that moscow has a tremendous amount of influence of armenia and that down at this point in it we are in a very sensitive moment in the negotiations on president. medvedev has been actively personally involved so what he might be able to do is provide some kind of support to the armenian leadership so that the armenian leadership can take the necessary

steps to sign the basic principle agreement that's now being discussed so i think that here maybe there can be also some kind of war public. house a vision of russia in armenia that is supporting this and encouraging armenia to move forward obviously both sides need to be encouraged but i think that really now it's really armenia that needs that kind of extra push on to agree to make their agreement possible say so be that frizer and the spotlight will be back shortly right after the break will continue this interview stay with us and.

showbiz that it's entertainment value of insults straight to presentation high production success it's grass so. all of this is a way to try to solve these people's attention by using techniques that are sensitive now during this war that the military have to take that. imagine your life to exhibit. this. crystal. international. organic food. living in harmony with nature. sounds impossible for. some people have already chosen.

a place under the sun on our. welcome back to spotlight i'm al going on even just a reminder that my guests today are sabine frizer and they keep it fun so we're talking about the situation situation in the caucasus which is pretty tense especially in the govern the kind of mass where where the as everybody soldiers and

the armenian soldiers are confronting each other and as andrea said a single provocation a single bullet can cause a full scale war. the reason. behind most of the conflicts today of the congress probably. is money economics. mr elliott the president of azerbaijan has recently signed an agreement with saakashvili the georgian leader about the direct shipment of the as a reed gas to romania at the same time he has an agreement with gazprom russian company committing everybody on to sell gas to the russian company while these two commitments seem to be contradictory seem to be have a conflict within them but europe should love it. such a kind of a contradiction in what we just say but as you suggest i think i have said love and i think a lot smarter if he was still alive with margaret even more because the whole point

further john is to have a kind of multifactor foreign policy a lot of actor energy policy they would they would like to make sure that they diversify their buyers so that way they're really needed by everybody so i think that it's really it is actually doing a pretty good job for his country in terms of diversification and maintaining influence it's only maintaining influence it's only surviving in a world surrounded by superpowers or is it trying really to create a russian alliance because because some observers think that saakashvili is touring and pretty successfully too to get involved in a sort of anti russian alliance what we're doing to do share this impression norma's realize take it as a real economic more for a very very vigilant standpoint are completely back our plan of sabrina from the germans or madonna standpoint he's doing the right things he's very war so far in the roots of our transportation of war on the us so i do not see any political

pro-tax there. but that's actually president of georgia. will europe's support for circus philly remain and conditions in the n.f.c. will feature what we see i don't think that europe support for presence actually is unconditional i mean i don't think it has been and i don't think it it will be either right now what will be interesting to see in georgia is they're actually engaged in a constitutional reform process so it will be very interesting i think here the european union member countries will be looking very closely at georgia to see if the country can move forwards towards a more democratic system with a more a stronger parliamentary system or whether it's going to somehow strengthen the potential hand of president saakashvili so i think this is a moment where everybody will be looking at georgia and actually testing georgia and. the same question to you mr van so will will the hatred of moscow to what

saakashvili remain unconditional may russia may russia somehow set her restart bullish relations with children until he's in power well of course. until one circus rule is in power russia will remain russia will remain like to be the enemy of i'm not saying georgia about georgia rule in a version of circus war in two thousand and thirteen was. the was his plays bass ago and probably could well yes in this case some changes could start again the question is who's going to come in his place and what's going to happen i really believe nothing and there will be no major changes there still will be georgia still will be demanding. their ear back and russia will still not let it do not let it happen but now the question is what circus rule is going to happen in line with the political of a constitutional reformer and the result she has the circus really will change the

constitution the way that the major power in the country will go to the prime minister and the question is if circus would move to the. to the prime minister position who's going to be ruling the country if that will be because i believe the russia will still stay the. not. just. north of the friendly state towards georgia we're on the first circuit surely moving and moving in to the into the office of the prime a prime minister would be only a logical considering that he's feeling more and more positions in the government with his lady friends all of. the world but listen well it's an interesting thing well i mean circus really. he certainly is a strange guy and he certainly is is a strange politician but russians russian politics russian political experts many

may talk to two european political experts and politicians on different topics and find find grounds of understanding each other but not. when they start talking georgian sacrificially so this is at least one thing he did. why why is the figure of this man so when poor and that even even russia and european expres can't find common grounds of evaluating him or his politics i mean that's interesting you say that because i don't really feel that there is a strong support for mr saakashvili as a person or as a politician in in the west i mean especially in european countries i don't think he is so strongly supported i mean he has been very critical of the european union and european politicians don't appreciate that. i would say that really there's a lot of emotions obviously between the personalities in russia and in georgia but

i don't really feel that that has overlapped too much to the european union i also feel that their current us government is also different than the previous one and that the kind. kind of a very strong support that he received in washington under the bush administration has also shifted now. do you think andrei that the reason for that silly and just said is that is that the new book will project is really buried by the europeans. by one thing so i don't think so i mean and i see more in the book of the road political issues on the economic levers of course for europe as for their budget and also the diversifying of the like a one grassroots army is very important across all of this is the economical party and the military i mean the people of politic part of that is of course europe doesn't want to depend only want to europe or mostly are a lot more only on russia or mostly in russia in providing itself with the oil and gas but again going back to circus really it's a question of what europe is doing is really now is trying to sort of light spend

some time until his elections because i believe europe and the united states as well already understand that this guy is i mean it cannot stand i mean he this guy he's he's not acceptable he's not acceptable what he's doing is not acceptable and for russia exactly because just because the line all his actions and all his language toward russia i mean means that these guys is the one that we cannot shake the hands with sabine does the european union do the european politicians considered russia as a competitor in the caucasus or at least at least considering. the pipelines yes problems will. i don't know if they would consider russia as a competitor i think that might be a little bit too strong a rule and that word because the problem i think for the european union is that they haven't really decided what they want to do with the caucasus so there isn't really a clear political project in the caucasus and there's

a very vague kind of neighborhood policy which exists but it's not it doesn't have much substance and on the energy front either i mean the european union countries haven't come up with a clear energy policy views of the caucasus so i think that in in many ways europe is looking for a way perhaps to partner with russia on this because it's really looking for help it doesn't have its own clear policy using a clear policy in the carcasses or it's just the general american grab everything you can put your hands on politically at least i think at the beginning there might have been a little bit of that yes a little while back but i think that there is there's been a certain realism that script in even to the u.s. foreign policy which is that even the u.s. cannot dictate what goes on in the south caucasus. one of the one of the major disagreements between russia and the e.u. concerning the cargo is the is the problem of observers in a policy in south a city and and i think that if we if we try to be frank we should admit that moscow

is blocking the presence of foreign observers in these two and these two self-proclaimed countries as they think or independent countries as we say because russia recognize them so would you admit that if yes why is that happening you know let me. be. and sells to say it is do not have any confidence in the sort of any more real way and the reason for the really two parts were very drawn. by the time of the five days war in two thousand and eight and that was really true they were not we were not neutral in any case. to be on actually what happened at that time in the sadia that those guys the international observers they knew they knew that something going to happen very soon and what they did what they did they didn't tell nothing to do or to or to russians they didn't tell nothing to say to us they just left they just love because they knew that in in

a couple of hours the all hell wall will break loose in that situation so this is not an acceptable. behavior of the international. observers going back to what has a president for example i've been reading in that time probably like one problem before that the five year or five days war basically been leading the common use of being basically by the situation in a positive and you have been complaining and you know there is a tension story in two two two two happened there and they said the president doesn't want to make peace talks with the georgians because on the ground that georgia had the troops into dorie valley and you say there are no troops there and after two or three weeks after the birth everybody saw that everybody saw one russian started to attack and georgia's left all this weaponry and have basically

been the whole world saw the war cannons having cannons there were. systems basically saw. they have the troops there you don't seem to receive in the. i mean there's two things they when agree with first so i don't think i ever said that because i would never say something unless i had been there and i didn't go up to ecuador or before august you know didn't say that you saw it but you said the georgian by the international observers reports was one of the ice and the other thing is that actually us from the from the perspective the international crisis group we were actually predicting that the war would start not possible so we thought that the war would start there because we believe that the tensions were increasing between in georgia and sending up us but what i would say about the international observers shows. strongly disagree with you because the o.s.c. was on a daily basis sending back reports saying that the situation was getting worse there were o.s.c. observers who were there until i mean on the night of the aug eighth when the war started so i do believe that.