to discuss the future of latin america i'm joined by peter had cumin washington he's the president of the internet american dialogue in london we go to oscar got of the olivera he is a senior lecturer in law at birkbeck college university of london and the author of the recent book what if latin america ruled the world and in mexico city we cross to laura carlsen director of the americas policy program for the center of international policy and another member of our crosstalk team on the hunger all right folks cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want i to go to you first oscar as things stand right now in latin america you have what we if we use a traditional political lexicon countries that are on the left in countries that are on the right but given the region as a whole is there a left right continuum that is a specific latin american way of doing politics now and i'm keeping in mind the tragedies that latin america has is come over cheve since the one nine hundred seventy s.

. the answer to your question is yes absolutely has to be recognized and everybody recognizes that interesting things are happening look in america the significance remains somewhat he didn't two things are happening first latino america has turned its back on the dogma of the previews decades both right and left that is to say both you know free market fundamentalism and the far left this idea that you know just stay dirigisme and violence where the royal road towards progress. has turned its back on those dogmatism and so there is now a left right continuum that is to specifically look in american that combines economic pragmatism with a bottom up approach to politics grassroots are now telling their governments

to be the real regard to follow. the people want and the second thing that is happening is massive explosion of creativity both in politics economics and in the arts as. the swedish academy recognized yesterday by giving the twenty to a nobel prize for literature to muddy water goes also laura fine go to you one of the things that's really interesting i was looking at voting participation people going to the polls and really embarrassed is a lot of western countries now people do like to vote people want to be heard i mean the participation in politics in latin america really shames a good part of the world. that's true there's been an increase in all types of citizen participation that really explains a lot of this transition to center left governments progressive governments in the region people are voting more because they're seeing an opening up of options they're seeing that there can be. at least adjustments in the kinds of near liberal

politics that they were protesting against in the streets for a long time and then on the other hand side you have grassroots movements that are really pushing governments as you mentioned and are beginning to have a real impact on policy making because many of these governments that are coming in are more responsive so the indigenous rights movement that can't be seen or peasant farmer movements in fact in even in some places to a lesser degree the women's movements are now being able to assert politics make changes that are constitutional and structural and having a big impact so there's a lot more dynamism in latin american politics now than we've seen in the past peter if i can go to you in washington but there are still people that are critical of populist movements and governments in latin america claiming that there there's a high level of corruption eye level of unemployment high level of inflation and things like this is that the correct word to use for these governments i'm thinking

of maybe like of venezuela bolivia well. you know. it's interesting because. agreed with. to the point where there is a certain. convergence of thinking in latin america. i think it's harder to know exactly what's right what's left in latin america i also think there can be a bit of an exaggeration of the amount of. transformation that's taken place i think there has been. a lot of progress made don't get me wrong i mean i started living in latin america in the one nine hundred sixty s. when the dictatorships were beginning to take power where the economies were really boom and bust economies and. inflation was rampant and no one seemed to care much

about inequality and that's changed dramatically since then but on the other hand there stand a lot long way to go before we could really see latin america as sort of leading the world or a latin america transformed that still a region with very high inequality very high poverty. a very sort of erratic political institutions now all this is changing and it's moving in the right direction and that gives enormous hope and optimism but i think that a let's wait another ten fifteen years no one talked about the chinese miracle until it was going on for a dozen years i think latin america really has to sort of show it has staying power with its current economic and social directions as well as its democratic governance oscar do you want to jump in there in reply to that. well i would like

to say three things number one the present transformation of the we seen that in america has been happening for over a decade already and secondly there are already concrete examples of latin america leading the world and probably the best example of that in the seventeenth of may the club ration of the hair on we brasil together with turkey actually achieving what none of the five veto powers of the u n a c could achieve to bring. to bring you round to the back to the negotiating table and this is a matter of principle not just as a matter of you know self-interest of politics and. let us remember also that latino america has been refining on the democratic institutions for over two hundred years i mean we're not really newcomers on the stage of.

look ratchet relations but rather one of the you regionally you know sources of modern democracy and of course. writing like that in a second if you want to jump in there real quickly i had these guys do peter i don't know how old you are oscar but you and then watching latin america i've lived through what was once called the brazilian miracle of economics there were lots of other rooms in boston latin america i think we just have to hope that the current very important progress the very important influence that latin america is now have the really can be sustained in some very worrying signs if you look at take brazil. yes they been growing very well they were very resilient

against the global. prices better than almost any other country anywhere at the same time their productivity has increased in the past fifteen years and the other hand they're still one of the most on equal countries in the world in other words progress has been made but i think if one one can become a little too complacent a little bit too. sort of cocky about where this is all going to wind up i have a great faith in brazil i've written about brazil but i'm very cautious about predicting a sort of on bridal march into the future ok laura fine go to you i mean it's look over the line it's over the last ten years i mean you know there is before we look at these bust the booms i mean a lot of this was based on policy coming out of the i.m.f. out of western institutions don't you see over the last decades that latin america is finding its own solutions to its own economic problems not always turning to

western institutions to bail them out but looking at their own internal resources. that's exactly why i agree with us with the original statement that there is a transition that's very significant going on in latin america in order to judge it i think we can say that that's happening already because we're not just talking about whether people are doing the economy's doing better or certain times of adjustment what we're seeing is the major structural changes that can't be sustained because contrary to many of the neo liberal politics that were there before these new structural changes actually had the backing of the majority of the people who'd been excluded from the previous economic and political systems so there we have changes in the direction of creating more independence being more responsible and able to control their own national politics breaking out of us in

any which is. very important i think a lot of these efforts that you see for latin american countries to come together in new forms of regional south south integration are a direct challenge to the u.s. to terminate that they had suffered from before and caused many of the politics of the neoliberal policies that grew inequality in the region to be imposed throughout there so the fact that they're standing up to challenge these policies that they're creating their own forms that they're taking on their own initiatives and that internally those processes have more state involvement in the economy where they can. create a system where natural resources and their exploitation the benefits remain within the country where there are systems to redistribute wealth there's programs for the poor that have actually lifted thousands if not millions out of poverty these are changes that have already had a direct impact on people's lives and that have already changed the geo political

map in the region ok folks i would have to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on latin america stayed with our g. . wealthy british sign of. the time to. go to. market why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy with mike stronger no holds barred look at the global financial headlines.

these are the.

welcome back to crossfire computerless now remind you we're talking about the prospects for latin america. before let's look at the regions ties with russia the history of relations between russia and latin american countries cannot be said to have been. but in recent years they have experienced some significant suits both politically and economically regular meetings and diplomatic visits those toddlers for the shims and in two thousand and six two thousand and eight trade turnover roles to a sixteen billion dollars russia is also one of the region's key military supplies

with the weakening of u.s. influence and let in america ties to russia may be key to the region's future. all right peter i'd like to go to you and i to continue on the font that lauren brought up before the break has the united has the grip the united states has had on latin america is it coming to an end and it will come to a complete end relatively soon. well let me let me just go back and i'll answer that question in the course of what i say. i'm very glad to hear laura particularly so upbeat about latin america and particularly latin america's economic and social progress. because she is cheering a. economic a set of economic and social policies that are also being warmly applauded welcomed by the world bank i.m.f. and u.s.

treasury this is an enormous conversion that's taken place and i must admit if really the left and the. world bank i.m.f. and u.s. treasury are on the same path right now that's tremendous new news that we really do have a consensus about economic policies as far as the u.s. goes yes i think there is a. disappointment in latin america with the u.s. there is a lowered expectation from the us latin america has become more assertive it's the versified it's international policies countries like china and india are gaining a real share of of the market they're becoming. part of the the region in and i think the countries of the region are taking many more

decisions into their own he n yes i think the united states is backing away somewhat i think also though with a condom ia fifteen trillion dollars which is four times the economy of all of latin america put together the u.s. markets u.s. investment u.s. technology remittances are still tremendously in poor. certainly for. mexico and central america and the caribbean and if you look at the commies of south america less important but nonetheless very very critical so yes the u.s. has a lowered political profile but it's still tremendously important economically ok oscar if i can ask you i mean peter let me turn right. yeah i'm not sure the puter understood me i do not think that the social progress suspend being made is

because there's a consensus between these countries much of the social progress that i'm referring to venice well in brazil has to do with specific social programs that are actually not contemplated or fully supported by the world bank and other international financial institutions we will recall that there were deep under those changes not . in the idea of peter here a letter a letter finishing a letter letter finish your point ok there are there there is some support for social programs here in mexico we have opportunity that this and others but recall that what these countries did in others in other senses to get into the place where they are now are for example many of them withdrew from the realm of the i.m.f. because they were not willing to accept the kind of conditioning and the austerity of the state in particular that went along with it the policies that we're saying now even if in some cases the international financial institute support them are

policies of greater intervention in the state and this is gone counter to the world bank and the financial institute's lied for many many times and yet it's precisely this which has been able to eliminate some of the tremendous inequalities that were causing social unrest and there were causing misery throughout the continent so i think that there's been a real break with central american countries and it's the break that's risky. answerable for the way that they rejected the free trade area of the americas and how many of those countries rejected free trade agreements with the united states has been critical in creating more south south trade and creating fair trade relations with the when we look at the economic crisis what we see is that the country is that recovered slowest and were hardest hit were the ones that had that dependence on the u.s. market in particular mexico and colombia and these other countries were able to recuperate much better if you want to reply to that real quickly i want to ask we're going to let me just i just. ask you go ahead go ahead yeah i

think you i think i think it's important to understand that rather than a simple consensus what is happening is latin america's economic and political practice is starting to change some of the more dogmatic views held by people in the world bank and the i.m.f. i mean the i.m.f. is still you know back to its old practice is not not only more in latin america but certainly in greece and you know the parts of europe also ease the case that. we've been seeing a potential for the convergence between the two big economies of the two sides of the american continent i mean imagine what would happen if you put together the economies of north america particular the united states and the south of the of the

rio grande you know the combined weight of these economies will give any other country with potential global hegemony a run for their money and let us not forget to announce another theme the latin america is also changing the united states from within it is latinos in the united states you know marching in two thousand and six. growing out to vote in two thousand and eight and now reacting again to the sort of these scores that he's got a rising some of the fringes of the republican party. you know setting a new notes in a new tone and i do best in it for the united states and these transformation mirrors really on a has said correctly the transformation that we have seen in the south grassroots movements taking the lead governments becoming real regard to the rather than rather the vanguard governments and checking very closely the sorts of policies

coming out of the i.m.f. on the world bank that wrecked havoc in america during the eighty's and ninety's these also combined with a more pragmatic or i say more intelligent approach to global economics and global politics is the secret for looking american rice ok i'd like to ask everyone here and i ask you you preempted me a little bit and when we had a chance or not to all right i mean you guys can go go ahead go ahead if you want to i mean why because we say one to one the one simple statement go right ahead that that is when i would advise laura to read the the i.m.f. report that will be released this weekend in washington really confirms it's very corresponds with very much with what you're saying there are applauding what brazil has done what chile has done what mexico has done in other words they

are really sort of very much in tune with what you're saying and i think there is a convergence between what you're saying and what the world bank and the i.m.f. are saying that's all all right i want to change the topic. i also think that ok are you going to reply and then i want to i want to do this immigration thing in the united states go ahead laura i don't like interrupting people go ahead. no i just want to say i don't think what brazil has done and what mexico has done for example are the same so i think there's quite a bit of differences we have one that's essentially a charity program and another but i think that basically if there is that kind of convergence and i will look forward to reading the report it would certainly be a positive side because as oscar mentioned before the damage that's been done by conditioning throughout our region has been devastating ok i ask around like to go to you brought up an interesting point in and i know it's in your in your new book

here. by twenty thirty years from now. should americans will the majority of the population of the united states be saying to which minority learn spanish instead of what we hear now learn english. well in the many ways that is happening there has happened already i mean look at the thousand and nine winner of the pulitzer prize was of the many. with a novel that he's effectively written in the spanglish rather than only in english or spanish and this reflects the huge changes that are occurring within the united to the states now these changes are going to increase and because more and more important as demographics changes as well and well right now sixteen percent of the population of the united states is latino by twenty four to twenty fifty we were will be talking of thirty to thirty four percent of the

population of the united states being a latino population with anglos in their minority and a convergence between african americans for instance and latinos in the united to the states which by the way are the two sectors of the population was most badly hit by the current crisis will mean a different direction a different political direction arriving and i'm afraid i'm going to have a lady with the consequence to jump in here we've run out of time and i think i'm going to have to learn spanish many thanks to my guest today marched in london and mexico city and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. so you next time and remember crosstalk.

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