she was once a name to norwegian all of the year but now faces deportation from the country brianna money has been living there in the giving since had teens. the census of asylum but had case was rejected some norwegians are accusing the government of double standards in immigration policy. and alleged russian dolls delivered to the feds to make his or her parents moved to the us media may call him the dad but he claims he's the victim of an american propaganda war he is accused of conspiring to kill americans and supplying weapons to terrorists. and. that the country's former president have inspired demonstrations elsewhere in the region j.p. guess what could happen to the white arab world if the unrest continues. next.

and you can. still. follow and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle shifting sands in the greater middle east events in tunisia have inspired similar demonstrations elsewhere in the region often at the risk of violent crackdowns is there now hope for more homegrown democracy in the arab world. and you can. discuss democracy in the greater middle east i'm joined by stephen zooms in san jose he's a professor of politics and international studies at the university of san francisco

in london we have the below ramdani she is a journalist an academic who specializes in the middle east and north africa and in philadelphia we go to daniel pipes he is an author and director of the middle east forum and another member of our cross talk team in the hunger all right cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want i to go to you stephen first events are still unfolding in tunisia and there is the possibility of violence is always there as they go through whatever transition they're going through right now what do you looking at these events here and demonstrations and other partner countries in the region is there a glimmer of hope now that more homegrown democracy can be is part of can be possible in this region because it's quite you stronger narry what has happened in tunisia. there certainly is hope. both in terms of consolidating democracy in tunisia other that's far from complete and perhaps inspiring

a similar approach to the uprisings elsewhere in the arab world not imminently but . over the next few years i think what we've seen you see in tunisia is what we've seen in places ranging from philippines to serbia from chill eighty crane from from now dives to mali that is you know people who recognize that democracy doesn't come from foreign intervention doesn't come from sanctimonious statements from western capitals or from the people themselves very interesting if i go to you know bill in london here you know you all often hear in common discourse that democracy does system work in the arab world because they're not ready for democracy and and if democracy is going to be there it has to be guided by others ok i mean are we seeing these stereotypes types being broken now because the people of tunisia with very relatively little violence on the side of the people shown that they can get rid of a very vicious dictator

a dictator that was praised in the american white house when he when ben ali visited the united states so you know what kind of message are we seeing now would be a different discourse now about what can happen in the arab world. well it's a very important message that we're getting from tunisia and the situation there is demonstrating that it's very much the street which is calling the shots now you know thousands of demonstrators clearly are asking for the old faces of the old regime to resign. and they are determined to bring about political reform and indeed democratic change to the country but it has to be emphasized that the situation in tunisia is still very volatile and what the situation is telling us is that any sudden regime change. rarely is followed by stability and that is in any country and tunisia in that respect is no exception if so we have to keep an eye on on the situation very closely because yes the corrupt

president and his family have gone. lately the latest news is that eight cabinet ministers india interim government have quit the former. constitutional democratic party belisa party but they are still holding on to their minister ariel jobs and that is unacceptable for the two million people find out if you mean we could switch the the equation here do you see that the other dictators in the greater middle east i mean are they going to be obviously going to be afraid of what's happening in tunisia because it could happen to them do you think they're going to tighten their grip even more or using the security forces in one thousand cracking down any kind of dissent because you can change things we like we have i think we all agree is that we don't know what the outcome is in for tunisia but there are certainly change going on so the dictators crack down even more when they start thinking twice about what they're doing. excellent question peter

before getting to it let me make a couple points first the extraordinary thing about what happened to nisha is that it was not ideologically driven the key event was a young man with a college education who kept on getting busted for selling fruit and vegetables because he didn't have a permit and couldn't get a permit and he was abused each time he tried to get a permit it from there on it was not ideological it was about corruption it was about free enterprise it was about freedom of expression but it wasn't driven by islamists it wasn't really my communists was driven by and him pearl is a more any of these other for a grander scheme it was against a lousy regime that was stealing and and so forth which is remarkable in the very few such instances and very encouraging and secondly what so far in the days of past we have not seen any ideology come in and swoop in and take over maybe that's yet to happen but it hasn't so far the the third point would be that it's not the regime that fell it's the ruling family the president and his wife and her extended

family and preciousness of this group but the regime still stands now again it might fall but at this point you know the structure is there the army the police the politicians are still there so it's a limited it's a limited it's a coup d'etat more than than a revolution at this point so looking looking beyond tunisia to the other states i think there's some deep soul searching taking place first of all in north africa the literal of the mediterranean morocco algeria libya egypt all four of those have presidents for life as the tunisian or roughly the same not terribly ideological this point yes mama gadhafi carries on about one thing in another but life in libya is not quite so strange that used to be and the other countries not optically strangest repressive regimes what are they going to do i can't predict but i think i have a lot to do with each individual circumstance somewhat ease up others will too will will close down it will be fascinating to watch and i think we can go one by want

to make. addictions but as a whole i don't think we can reproduce very stephen let's do you think you know when we ask the question you think that despots will tighten up and and crack down even more but what about the united states i mean the united states really just got red in the face here i mean. ben ali was treated as a great ally against heroin invited to the white house and what not i mean if you think these dictators going to say wooed they did they didn't go in and save ben ali did they will will they say for me and i think that you know do you think these dictators now are going to have a look twice at how what kind of support that they can count on from the united states because it looks like there's not much right now. was done much the united states could do not much any outside power could do and you have a general strike shutting down the country when people refusing to obey curfew orders when the entire legitimacy of the state was being defied by the masses i mean it's interesting to see how u.s. policy shifted just three days before the fall of the regime hillary clinton was

praising the u.s. cities are in a relationship saying oh we're not taking sides you know we're. we're not interview and i are fearing one way or the other in fact you know just a couple weeks before that when the uprising began congress voted for an additional twelve million dollars in security assistance for the regime but then on friday you have president obama making these very very positive statements supporting the pro-democracy forces and criticizing the regimes or oppression and i think this is indicative of something that despite the fatalism you hear the arab world about what washington decides controls what's happening on the arab streets we see the arab streets essentially you know controlling what happens in washington policies and the bill and you know it's very interesting i mean we had hillary clinton come immediately out after these events started unfolding and and really had this kind of bombastic speech about how we need to have democracy in the middle east when one

of her allies. it was you know it deposits i mean i mean explain to me how maybe north african see that i mean you have a country a secretary save a conversation we need to support freedom and democracy and at the same time you know we still see you know we look at you name the country egypt isn't easy when it comes to mind i mean where you know it all the artists utter rhetoric that doesn't make any sense because the united states is defending the its strategic interests with a leader it can count on that with the egyptian people for example. well absolutely i mean hillary clinton's statement illustrates absolutely and evidently the hypocrisy of american foreign policy especially in what they call the greater middle east well let's remind our listeners or viewers that the growth of middle east is an expression which was coined by the bush administration to refer to a wide spectrum of countries ranging from pakistan in the to morocco in the west they bear no relation to each other and it just shows that america is looking

at this part of the world the most and the broader muslim world in return diversity as a monolithic block it doesn't want to take into account the differing differences in the social economic political and indeed cultural. variations of the region and it's looking at this part of the world purely in security terms and in militaristic terms. i mean the u.s. administration has supported corrupt regimes like the egyptian government and indeed tunisia and other such countries in the region and it's now changing its tone changing discourse because it would be a blow to america to say otherwise you know if fine go to you i mean the rhetoric and the reality on the ground i mean do you think the united states should be a little bit more nuanced in now i mean because if you put so much priority ois

prioritize security you gadsby's kind of despotic regimes don't you. well there's a a. a a paradox at the center of american foreign policy visa be the middle east the greater middle east and it's the following it's quite simple actually united states has represented democratization for over two centuries now united states was the second country to become democratic or arguably even the first before britain depending how one defines it but it was one of the very very very few in the world netherlands britain united states and over the twentieth century especially since woodrow wilson hundred years ago the united states government has made it its policy to enhance democracy to encourage democracy and has done so with extraordinary success russia as an example we we were part of the process certainly was i mean a lot of pressure people would disagree with that very sort of feeling very strongly when you have to wash in that there is

a forum or dictators that you can question all you like excuse me i'm talking all right general states and i've been in that mode if you were a saudi to the last time you're going to have to go to a break and we'll go back to daniel when we get back from the break after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the middle east state. of. the playing soccer team to speak to the homes to return to the land developed by cossacks in ancient times. now wattie goes to the center of russian defense production. christianity and shamanism existed side by side for

centuries. when people in remote villages. because all from the basics we take for granted. in the republic russia close up on ati. download the official location i phone the i pod touch from the i choose our. life on the go. video on demand tease mine gold costs and r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. question on the dot com. welcome back to cross talk i've generally go to remind you we're talking about

changes in the middle east. but before let's see whom russians blame for the region's instability. tunisia lebanon israel the greater middle east in general this own stable region is consumed by violence crisis and grave become amika social realities and even israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu admitted the region's instability citing the allstar of tunisia's president is a good illustration the public opinion agency let us and all scrushy who is to blame for the middle east instability twenty percent see the united states being at fault fourteen percent think we should blame islamic fundamentalists six percent also cite western countries still the question remains when will there be quiet insecurity in the region back to peter ok daniel before we went to the break you

were saying that basically america is a beacon of democracy in the world in the bill and stephen i just almost want wanted to jump in there they did jump in there but we ran out of time so could you do so i will repeat your point oh i'd like to go to the bill and stephen on this issue go ahead. united states has been the motor force for democracy now there have been two major exceptions one is when faced with the taliban as of whether it be german or russian or chinese the united states has worked with non democratic countries to find a allies and a second has been the middle east in the middle east the problem has been even before islam as a became a major force the problem has been that in the middle east there is. an inherent radicalism and so over and over again when tempted to go the democratic route american governments have found that this will bring our enemies to power and so there has been a has in it see now that was changed in the vendor two thousand and three when george w. bush said the hesitancy is over we're going for democracy we're going to three

years it became clear that what everyone feared which is that there would be this surge of our enemies coming to office come into power getting stronger that policy was somewhat abandoned and now we have administration and obama that's not interested in democracy i believe that we united states should be pushing for democracy it is it is our it is what we do and we do it well but we should do it slowly the problem with bush is he did it too quickly he wanted elections now right away within twenty months after the ouster of saddam hussein there were elections for prime minister in iraq no no no you go slowly you take years you start with da catcher you start with local municipal councils and weak you build up and up and up in other words democracy is counter-intuitive you can't just have democracy have to have an understanding that there's a rule of law and loyal opposition and freedom of speech and so forth and you don't

just you know people just don't have it they're not born with it they have to learn it and therefore this is a slow progress probably the need to slow progress and i hope that this series of events in tunisia will lead to the u.s. government picking up again and bombing the station going back to what bush did but more slowly. and cautiously i'm honestly in the way bush did so we can help to build a base for democracy in the middle east such as has never existed before ok and if you inherently radical. no i mean i totally disagree with what daniel pipes just said i mean to say that america has always been a driving force for democracy to make sure that democracy triumphs around the world is disingenuous i mean there's the track record of. america supporting corrupt dictator and dictatorships around the world is well documented and the list of countries such countries is is endless and has to be said that

after nine eleven america has looked at the arab world and indeed the muslim world and the populations within muslim countries as potential terrorists and they have been investing billions and billions into countries like egypt or tunisia to make sure that religion is indeed suppressed and kept in check so that they don't have any problem with muslims anymore and that's the reality and to say otherwise these are not only in the general views right stephen you want to join me in their image as they make you feel very decent even. go ahead stephen you know the united states has been the prime united states of the primary supporter of dictatorial regimes in the middle east and elsewhere in the world for many many decades we've even overthrown democratic governments like of mohammad mosaddegh and three right in the shard with his brutal socks secret police we armed and trained you know that this

is a no for in a democracy even during the bush era there was just window dressing there are enemies of iraq is about oil and empire it did have anything more to do a democracy than it did about the so-called weapons of mass destruction. that the bush administration's allies fabricated you know the reality the reality. he talked bush talked about spreading democracy for damascus to tehran well i think we all agree that syria and iran could use more democracy he didn't talk about spreading democracy from riyadh to cairo and in fact under bush we increased our security assistance to oppressive regimes which which are which use these security assistance to suppress civil society organizations struggling for democracy and then we turn around and say oh there's no democracy because it's not part of their culture and we've got to go slowly this we've got to go slowly line is what you know virtually every tyrant you know in left right and center has used for. forever to try to justify their rule people deserve their freedom and it's not the

united states to offer it to them it's for them to claim for their own was very difficult when we are probably you know these days dictatorships and given the means of repression to suppress such pro-democracy movements then you want to go in there and respond reply go ahead so go ahead daniel fascinating pop career contradiction it's a fascinating pot pourri of contradictions we've just heard let me make a few points first united states is not government under bush in particular was not suppressing risk law was in fact an hansing it i can't tell you how much money and i'm i'm looking to find out how much money the u.s. taxpayer has has spent on building mosques and madrassas in the muslim world it's hardly the actions of some insane thing about islam it's also about religion secondly i didn't know you didn't miss. committed secondly. the in terms of democracy now well that's what you got in iraq as i said twenty

months was very fast between a stalinist dictatorship and voting for prime minister it didn't work it's not working it needs with the historical record shows that democratization is a slow process i'm sorry if you're impatient bush was impatient you and bush are impatient and look what you get it's got to take some years give it time. but then i think the point is here it was but what i'm so disappointed is hearing the problems in iraq are from the invasion not from the problems or rock or from invasion not for democracy though the problems in iraq or because of a foreign illegal foreign military occupation which stirred up this extremist kind of reaction if the if a democracy isn't the whole thing was naturally in that country if we hadn't supported ard. saddam was a very very big surprise. we americans former oh i know bill i mean go to you i mean what tell me you know i know that it's

a mythical thing but i like the term anyway the arab street here i mean what kind of example has been set what kind of events are being put into play because of tunisia and we again we all agree we don't know where it's going to go but i mean are you most all across the mediterranean for sure people are saying there is hope out there now that you see how people will start building upon it in a way that is constructive if the united states just keeps its business its nose out and the european union leaves the. it doesn't support these governments anymore i mean there there is still wiggle room might there why are we talking about government support why don't we just leave them alone yes i mean the arab league summit is taking place at the moment in the chief of the arab league has said something very important about the situation in tunisia and indeed in the wider region he said the soul of the brink of the middle east is broken because of deteriorating economic conditions and i think that's

a very good point to make. a social economic conditions in north africa and the wider region are. i mean they need to be looked at very closely. the riots basically in the region started off because of social economic problems in tunisia but also in neighboring algeria where people started demonstrating because of the soaring. prices of basic food basic commodities like bread butter flour and it spread to other countries like egypt sporadically and the wider region and there has been a shift then from so. riots and demonstrations to in an attempt to improve social economic conditions and circumstances to demonstrations. now reforming the whole political system and introduce democracy which indeed goes hand in hand with improving social economic circumstances because

. fundamentally has to do with ending corruption and introducing fair political system which involves a redistribution of wealth daniel i mean you in the beginning of the program you were you were happy that the events that are being played out in tunisia doesn't have an ideological angle to it and i suppose you're referring basically mostly to islam but i mean why can't the united states not be so ideological in exporting democracy at least how we don't just stand there. because it just really basically just reinforces that strategic interest they did not for ideal interest here i mean can we just focus more on this socio economic to help these people and maybe that will help bring democracy about in the slow way that you mentioned. well i think we on this panel have much more harmony we talk about tunisia and we talk about the united states. enjoy talking about tunisia more of the united states but to answer

your question. i saw the obama statement last week congratulating me on the street as ambiguous that's not an indication that we're going to support others so for example of egypt it's not a rejection of what's happened it's saying that we need more time to figure out what we're doing here and so far as i can tell there has been no formulation of policy no figuring out what we do in tunisia nor in the in the in the wider middle east so i think this is very much in flux but a lot has to do i think with how things turn out in tunisia if there is a smooth transition to i'm sorry i'm going to have to jump in here folks we've run out of time here hopefully the events in the twenty's will bring about a better life for them and maybe others in the greater middle east many thanks to my guest today in philadelphia london and in san jose and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time and remember

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