people. to pay tribute to the thirty five killed in monday's suicide bombing it was russia's. last march. for president. and the start. reducing. nuclear arsenals.

bringing you the latest. from. can you can. locate welcome to cross talk i am peter lavelle a country in turmoil a country divided lebanon faces the prospect of a government controlled by hezbollah will lebanon's democratic choice find the country in danger then and upon for others in the region.

to discuss the political situation in lebanon i'm joined by alistair cooke in beirut he's director and founder of the conflicts forum in new york we go to tony battering he is a research fellow at the foundation for defense of democracies and in london we cross to patrick seale he is a british journalist and author of the new book the struggle for arab independence all right gentlemen cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want there are differences of opinion on this panel and i want my viewers to see it alister year in beirut just an hour or two hours ago we word came out that indeed hezbollah hezbollah sponsored by minister will has been appointed by the president of lebanon and will be confirmed in a matter of hours probably to well within twenty four hours on wednesday they're calling it the day of rage but this is all been done constitutionally hasn't. it

hires and you're wrong to call the prime minister designate hezbollah person and fact he stood. as one on the hariri list in tripoli and he's in march the port so he's an independent businessman you can't describe him. the nominee so i think it's wrong to say that and furthermore he's been very clear that he's creating a unity government an independent government this is not going to be a hezbollah government it's going to be a government of national unity under a sunni prime minister are right patrick it can't be a government of national unity because just as i was sitting down in the studio here to do this program i was watching the pictures coming out of some of the cities in lebanon and there's a lot of rage the day of rage i mean is there going to be continued national conciliation a government of national unity because if you look at mainstream media here of course they're painting the worst possible scenarios here. because we have to point

out to our viewers that the united states and a few other countries in the world not the majority of countries in the world identify hezbollah is a terrorist organization. what we are witnessing today is the culmination of a process which began more than forty years ago with the awakening of the shia community level. under there and i'm going to leave them with the center now of what is given them a tremendous philip of course was the two israeli invasions of seventy eight and eighty two the eighty two invasion killed seventeen thousand people and the israeli state eighteen years until they were pushed out in two thousand now they in a way their occupation created as bella has but as a resistance movement to occupation and oppression now they've come a long way in these forty years and they've now allied themselves with a medical journal i one who represents heart who represents half the christian

community and with the druze so it's an alliance of hezbollah the christians and the druze and they form this government now this of course is very bad news for the united states and israel who continue to describe these the job summit resistance movements as terrorism this is a q.j. era of american foreign policy one of one of many ok tell me if i can go to you so good news coming out of beirut today and tomorrow. no absolutely not and i contest very much what both your guest said first of all with regards to allister's statement that this is constitutional let's not forget that the reason why has it was able to topple the government was because it up tamed a radical innovation called the veto third in the government in the previous government and it did so by invading neighborhoods in west beirut and the roof mounted by force of arms killing innocent people and that's how that led to obtaining a third in the last cabinet that enabled it to topple it second it even in that

agreement hezbollah had pledged not to use that veto third and it lied and used it again and now even when he has told a couple of times now that he's he's been under extreme duress and pressure from hezbollah in order to to move in this direction and so i mean there is a lot of intimidation and bullying to call it constitutional is a mere facade and actually a charade and even the prime minister had himself referred to in makati as hezbollah's candidate he said there is no independent there is no consensus there is no compromise there is me and there is hezbollah scan that it is hezbollah's candidate and as you can see by this in the reaction in his hometown of tripoli where he controls where he represents a mere few neighborhoods of the reaction has been incredibly angry at his at his nomination at the hands of a shiite group that is accused of killing the former prime minister of lebanon ok alison we've heard this all before. ok ok i guess this is the same kind of.

media. story that we hear all the time that hezbollah is just a terrorist group and its image but in the eyes of the majority of people of lebanon they are the largest political party in the country. that's correct have you have to look at the last election in fact in the last election in two thousand and nine in the parliamentary election we saw in march the fourteenth at that time one fifty five percent of the parliamentary seats but it was done only on forty five percent of the popular vote and it was done with a huge the branch and of money from saudi arabia and with a full turn out of the sunnis in other words the political base theater i had always objected if i may you know it's been a national finish and although you know now it go ahead finish up ouster it's been it's all been narrow but the basis i want to come back to because after what we've just heard from tony but brian is wrong. lebanon has never had

a government in the way in which the western states have a government it is a power sharing arrangement it is not a government by which one sect one group dominates and has germany over the others its if you like a four legged race in which the main force sects are tied at the ankle together and struggle as best they can towards the finishing line now what happens and what has happened recently has been that one group has tried to if you like use a western style view that there is an absolute mandate for anyone who has a majority in parliament to use against other sectarian groups and has been naturally a very strong reaction against that and that's part of what the problems that we see and which we are facing today finally on the point of the day of rage there are sporadic elements of violence but actually there's been a very small turnout of protests both in tripoli where they had to delay the protest in fact because not much people turned up to begin with they had to

postpone it so they've been. it l.o.l. months of violence to be mostly sunni sunni violence not against the shia community but in tripoli against perhaps some of those particularly against one of the m.p.'s from tripoli who voted for me cody instead of voting for hillary so it's not quite so it's just been presented either ok tony you want to reply to that we are finished go right ahead well i mean the i don't like going to dwell too much on it but the what he said about the elections is incredibly skewed and misleading i mean yeah there were money from saudi arabia like there wasn't money from iran and there wasn't money from qatar and elsewhere i mean let's not let's not joke ourselves here and the other thing is with regards to the percentage of the population where the electorate election happened i mean mr neglects to tell you that for instance in in areas in south lebanon where hezbollah won there has not been even a contestant from the march fourteenth. coalition so there has not been a popular turn ups to begin with so i mean the entire pick. sure that he paints is

incredibly misleading but be that as it may the notion that somehow has been as a large group it's the group that has the largest weapons in the country it's an armed group that has attacked other people sort of leave that aside and describe it as some sort of a legitimate political party like everybody else some sort of a civil society n.-g. o. is incredibly misleading ok patrick how do you. follow up on what tony had to say here because i hear this all the time in the mainstream as well as it has is the most powerful most popular because it has the most force and that it can use it it's an armed group you hear that all the time how do you reply to that. well look it is the biggest party in lebanon perhaps the only real party if it is not only the strongest force in lebanon because the state is weak it also has a very volatile program it represents the oppressed people of the south and the who suffered terribly from the israel's constant invasions and incursions so it's

not surprising that they feel very bitter about this now what's happened today i think is the very very encouraging thing this government is much more representative than its predecessors it is an alliance of half the christian community with hezbollah which represents forty percent of lebanon's population as allies. look there hasn't been a census since nine hundred thirty two but most people would say the figure is close to forty percent so with half the christians when i drew is the way over the fifty five percent well tell you say not true not true what you're saying is total nonsense and you know it's like really i live in answer to your side the fact that hypothetical numbers there are a lot of numbers that are as a fact that the incentives are tied to the fact twenty nine percent and if anything the sunnis have them i mean if you actual over the. and you know this patrick you

know it's really the demographic of these of. the fact is tony we don't want to accept you don't want to accept shift in the power base in lebanon this is happened and as i say it started forty years ago and it's a reality today and this government has to be encouraged now we should stress that . the head of hezbollah has said repeatedly that he respects lebanon's institutions its constitution is not seeking power by himself he wants a national unity government it's the high really cried crowd was saying they will never join this government so this is a very good also add to that is the least corrupt by far of any of the political groupings of the lebanon it's a remarkable organization and i wish them well alister i'm going to give you the last word before we go to the break here and go ahead yeah i think it does provide

as patrick said it's an opportunity it's an opportunity to get back if you like to an earlier form of levantine politics which is about power sharing and about partnership and trying to find a national consensus and i think this does give it to a chance to do this under mikati and to move away from the polarized language the polarized politics that have been present really basically since two thousand and five all right gentlemen to jump in right here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the lebanese politics today with our . was the strangest attempt to take on. the u.s.

president trying to overthrow a foreign country's government but his strategic game. and america recognized it's just a. question if cuba managed to cope with its victory. the cuban missile crisis games in reality. the british. markets. find out what's really happening to the global economy for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines to cause a report on our. welcome

back to. remind you we're talking about the events being played out in lebanon. ok tony and i to go to you because it's been kind of turned into a two against one thing here is i want to give you a little bit more time here to get your position right gentlemen the first part of the program we talked about domestic politics and what's going on in lebanon now let's kind of widen this out right now because it it lebanon isn't a very important very small country but it's a very important country in a very volatile region tony if i can go to you i mean we haven't talked about the u.n. tribunal at all and a lot of people say this is why hezbollah pulled the plug on the government. because it doesn't want to face what it believes what many people in international

media say is an indictment that could be. followed up against the members of hezbollah for the assassination of the former prime minister so. do you think that well what do you how do you reflect upon that this political crisis in this political process and the international dimension. yes i mean i mean that was what that was what i was mentioning earlier i mean allister mentioned that this is a government now which hasn't been yet formed is somehow more representative but in the past government has. and everybody was represented and hezbollah had veto power in that government which is why i managed to topple it so it wasn't an issue of representation very clearly so an issue about abrogating lebanon protocol of cooperation with the special tribunal for lebanon which was founded under chapter seven of the united nations security council and to stop all commitments by lebanon to cooperate with this tribunal in lebanon share of funding this tribunal and this is again something that has been promised and lied about in the agreement one of

the articles that set up the previous government was that hezbollah not only would not use the veto authority to topple the government but that it would respect and cooperate with the tribunal for lebanon and now it has reneged on this and it has it's going to and it topple the government and it's trying to set up a charade and. the. likely it's going to be a so-called technocratic government so that hezbollah thinks that's clever so that it avoid being dubbed the hezbollah government which everybody knows that it's what it's going to be and it's the first order of affairs is going to be to abrogate the agreement and stop lebanon's cooperation with it as though that's going to make a difference i don't think it's going to make much of a difference with regard to the tribunals work but that's what hezbollah is doing because hezbollah is very nervous because it's it knows that it's going to be members of its party are going to be accused. as being operatives in the in the assassination of rafik hariri probably in we go with the syrians who are the main

military at the time ok i'm not really sure why it would be such a bad idea to have a hezbollah government i guess that comes from a u.s. perspective patrick if i can go to you lot of people not only and hezbollah but a lot of other people say this all to a u.n. tribunal. case against hezbollah from the start that they were going to all of the evidence just was pointing into that direction to make sure this was the way the u.s. can get rid of one of its nemesis in the region one of israel's nemesis as well. is that just being cynical or is that plausible. you know it's more than plausible i mean it was highly politicized from the start because as well blood said the other day it became an instrument for political blackmail the whole idea was to try and. the syrians damages claim that they were responsible no evidence being produced we must wait for the evidence now says that israel committed this crime well israel we

have to accept has a long history of political assassinations they tried to kill the very first prime minister of independent lebanon and we have to say there's a very long history they try to kill khaled mashal in a man who just recently killed somebody in dubai they recently killed. in tehran so they have a long history of using force to eliminate to eliminate their political opponents tony if you want to if you want to defend the israeli record go ahead but we're listening to you a very interesting little factories are battling is that this is having. you yourself as well it doesn't compare with israel's i must say israel commits. i want to go. again this u.n. tribunal is it just being used as a stick because you know you we can put on this side here is this whole tribunals thing at the outcome is obvious for many people in the region not according to u.s.

media in the u.s. state department obviously and of course you know according to the israelis but. we seeing a showdown here because this is it seems to me this is exactly what the united states wants i mean actually they must be secretly very happy that has well have a lot more control in the government even if it's not a hezbollah government because of the hostility that they have towards hezbollah and against iran and against the syrians i mean obama you know has another war on his hands and plenty of people in the states would just love to go down that path especially israelis. oh well you all right it's exactly as it's addressed and here we all are you know like i was the go ahead allister alister. it was exactly the sit with the old form of domino theory that if you could weaken his boiler it would be a slap for syria which would be damaging to iran and all of those together would make israel feel safer in the region and that was how it was conceived first of all

targeted on syria and now it is on hezbollah and it is being a political instrument and it was devised as a political instrument and i think there is not much sadness there will not be much sadness or the sun but some people but not much sadness if it disappears from lebanon's political scene because it has been highly divisive it has been highly polarizing and very dangerous for all the sectarian groups in this country so if it disappears it will be i think seen as positively and particularly recent polls show that nearly sixty eight percent of christians also would like to see it removed from the political agenda here christians who are not within this if you like the immediate environment of this conflict so i think it is very much a strategically it's clearly had the methodology the processes of all being

questioned and of course from the start it was if you like the chalice was poisoned by the use of of witnesses for or perjurers who came forward and who gave false evidence that i think of it still remains to be investigated ok journey got to you got to floor go ahead. yeah i mean it's amusing to hear hezbollah talking points but we all know this anyway but this is i love how patrick says we need to wait for the evidence and alastair cook has already determined what the tribunals politicization is without knowing the first thing of what he's saying second with regards to these false witnesses or whatever the tribunal has been more than clear about the type of evidence that it has and what use it has for these people with or if it even if it considers them as witnesses or as suspects or not including the people that were planted by the syrians like mr hussein for instance in order to deliberately derail and mislead the tribunal this was

a criminal act by itself but you know mr crook thinks that the u.s. manufactor and all these people that it's it's absurd what is being said here that the notion somehow it should disappear law and accountability for murder and assassination should disappear and a westerner is saying this is appalling you know we have sure let let you know let the political assassinations be done then in lebanon and then we call it the democratic process when the people who kill them form a government of their own when they've killed their enemies and it's this is i mean this is really outrageous. and i had to come back and i'd like to come back. first of all what we're talking about here in terms of the it's been quite clear from the prosecutor that we're not talking about justice or trial in evidence in the way in which we normally think about it he said very clearly that as far as he's concerned so it comes to actual evidence can be better than direct evidence

circumstantial evidence which would never hold up you seem to have in the in the court in europe secondly. the point that we are trying to make is of course no one seen the evidence. and you can also see and you said himself. circumstantial evidence and circumstantial evidence i think you tell your contacts and there are certain stars there are material you have all this is our and it will be a complete. and i. think you jump in there go ahead jump in p.p.p. to jump in i mean i think that this debate about the special tribunal for lebanon is pretty sterile because we have to wait for the indictments now what just to go back on your other point about the regional implications i mean we are seeing a shift in the balance of power in the region you see for the last six decades israel has ruled supreme militarily with american backing now we're seeing

a shift we see the this axis of tehran damascus has but now this axis itself up as an opponent of the of the us israel israel to germany and it's doing rather well and the fact that this government change in lebanon this is a triumph for them now this axis has had has gained support elsewhere to gain support from turkey gain support from qatar and. israel's strategic environment has deteriorated has changed they didn't want anybody else to be able to to resist them not to hit without being hit back without being hit back and that's that is that has been the problem and so you get you get non-state actors like hers but a lot like how it's backed by their friends syria. iran and also turkey one has to say and i think. rick i think you can through sister i

think you can throw in iran iraq now ok. ok well of a post plus possibly iraq after the horrific war in iraq pushed by the neocons by people like paul wolfowitz and their friends i mean which which is bankrupting the america which destroyed a major arab country and changed the whole balance of power in the gulf region in favor of iran ok patrick i want to jump in here i want to get i want to give tony the last word what's the future of the region because of this recent of these recent events and now in lebanon go ahead. well i mean i think what what patrick is saying this is still grossly exaggerated but nevertheless i think what's more interesting in the back and when talking about the balance of power is the talk is to talk about the balance of power within lebanon and to see how dramatically serious power has diminished in all of this and to the to the benefit of iran and hezbollah i mean what we're seeing i mean there is no government yet so i mean everybody's anticipating a government is a government this and a government that's a nonsense this is utter nonsense. all right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here

we've run out of time to be with time and i can all get together when there is a formal government many thanks to my guest today in new york and london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk to us.

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