example here most take this is all to see the critical new fears situation in japan kids from bouts of was the sudden spike in radiation levels being stung all the trouble. she must say. i'm all the japanese government insists there is no immediate danger of a questionable track record of telling the truth about possibly the problems means that not everyone's going to hit. such a pounce nuclear concerns because the whole agency the regional the lab the

financial fallout that could reach father and wife and even small begins to come. about the world and maybe alderman take the evidence out of the rebels while most wealth power as i guess imposing a no fly zone across the country the un is still set to discuss. next all these cost all program debates whether the arab countries currently protesting against they regimes or when they get what they want. really new the latest in some instance or some of. the few jerks. can.

follow in the welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle the arab world the power of people's hopes and the deadly reactions of tyrants what are the prospects for progress towards a more democratic arab middle east or tunisia and egypt leading the way or are libya and saudi arabia still the norm and what role if any should the west play play. can. still see. to discuss to see change in the arab world i'm joined by let me sunday on the in amman she's a middle east analyst and journalist in london we go to we used to fight he's from his but a global islamic political party and in fresno we go to raymond eva him he is an associate director from the middle east forum and author of the al qaeda reader and another member of our crosstalk team ellen hunger all right folks this is cross

talk means you can jump in anytime you want to let me see if i can go to you first in amman right now we have a lot of things going on in the arab world right now we have a crackdown in bahrain we have the saudi forces that went in over a twenty four hours ago as we sit down for this discussion it has been reported that a protester killed one of the saudi troops we have mr gadhafi pushing further and further east as the west of the western world there is if it should intervene or not and given task history there are good reasons for that so what's the direction here is there any normal in the greater middle east are we just stuck in a huge sandstorm and we don't know which way it's going to go. where is the sense of excitement and euphoria goes there bored with a veneer of the arab world few weeks ago is being replaced by deep concern and fear that the stew ition is degenerating into civil strife especially after the setback for the revolutionaries in libya and there is fear now with. the

uprising in the in behind him could. would sit with integration could deteriorate into it and. then a conflict and share arsenic conflict so we are at a crossroads today and we're all very concerned if i can surely you turn to now raymond and i fresno where do you see is in a sandstorm i mean we just heard there are a number of things that are going on you see a particular direction or are we still can't tell yet. i think we still can tell i think we need to try to adopt a more panoramic vision and try to take lessons from history and what i mean by that is we are in the early stages of the revolutions across the arab world we're watching history in the making in fact this is the sort of stuff that will actually make it in the history books as opposed to so much of the other things that make major headlines every day but what we need to keep in mind is revolutions you know

we're watching the first few months not not even we haven't even got a year in all that we're watching and if you look at earlier presidents from other nations other revolutions whether it's the american revolution the french revolution the russian revolution you'll find that there was bloodshed in the beginning but you know there was no way to predict how things ultimately and it takes oftentimes a decade before you really see how all this will eventually turn up the fact is there is a lot of contending factors contributing to what we're watching and we're only aware of you know it oftentimes just small aspects and i'll just give you one example i'm in touch with people in egypt and many people and in different parts of egypt and they give me their taken a lot of them are intimately related to what's going on and speaking to these people you'll find that each one of them has a different take one of them will tell you that what's really going on is primarily the youth of egypt and that this is a good thing and that this will ultimately hopefully evolve into a comedy into

a democracy then you have another person who lives a few miles away who's convinced that the muslim brotherhood is ultimately behind this and pulling the strings then you have other people talk about the egyptian military which in the media in america as you know way ironically has been touted as this great substitute for mubarak and then other more sober thinkers who are there are telling you that in many ways they're actually worse and not much has changed and if you really do go on the ground in egypt you'll find that there's a lot of the same exact same sort of. it's ok it's kind of your thing if i go to taji there well we already have a precedent early in the in this process here if the revolutionary process if we can call it that we have we have. a seeming ripped support for democratic forces have been called them democratic forces in egypt in tunisia there's a lot of dithering over libya what to do about libya and certainly there's no strong american support behind the scenes scenes for saudi arabia so it really is

on a case by case basis isn't it and we're seeing different presidents set in different ways. there are different places but there is also a commonality and that commonality is the fact that whilst issues are still evolving some facts have been established number one that the people want to have their voice heard the people demand change the slogan rediscover the new them the people the collapse of the system is uniform everywhere so what really we see on one level is a division between the people who have been oppress subjugated for years by western backed to take is against the western backed rulers the reality in libya. in and saudi other places is a fight back by the rulers so really there's a clear division as to what the two sides are going forward can the rulers last forever no so these revolutions are works in progress but they will end up ultimately with the triumph of the people's will that's an inevitable force you

cannot stop against but it's the u.s. and their allies and agents in the region are they fighting back now employ military force yes they are and that is to be expected and so there is a lot still unfolding still to see but that the people want a new system in line with the values that believes history free from the police state western interference and all that that has actually been established right now where do we go from here what is the future lie this is the ongoing debate ultimately once we overcome this resistance by the rulers at the moment ok let me say but we don't have a very good president sent in bahrain right now because it looks like the ruling class is going to stay try to stay in power at all costs because they call the security situation in the small island but you call in the military a thousand troops tanks and mean that sounds very serious and we have a report as we sat down here it violence has already started because of that incursion if we can put it that way yes i think i said i think that arab leaders

have over at first that they were compelled. who make that and make changes and promise reforms but after they saw what happened in libya and the fact that the libyan president is ready to store his people and his country in order to stay in power they've been really there's unfortunately have been empowered again to think that they could continue or crush. the uprising and this is what's happening in her head in at first the king. acted with violence with force then he promised reform then he called for dialogue and now he is. he is getting so they're able to help him crush their president in saudi arabia in the in the hand but that doesn't mean that this is the end of their new show and i think that they grew with their other speakers from london is that new facts have

been established that people are not going back they want accountable governments and they're ready to second feis what we have seen here is that people are it is even to die in order to change the government or and to get more accountable governments to have more power sharing to have more say to put an end to repression and to put an end to corruption so we're going to see a big conflict between the people and the leaders and the and the regimes it has. the better is still at its beginning where i mean if i go to you in fresno again how are they are a lot of these regimes i know there's a lot of them in there and they're in there some very nuance differences among them but we hear the word reform and to what degree can a lot of the regimes reform to match the discourse of western what we would call western freedoms freedom of speech freedom of assembly. i would i would argue not very well and similarly i'd like to actually go to the. earlier point

which goes to what you're saying which is that this is really the people's voice in the people's uprising and the people want to be heard and powers i mean i completely agree with that but i think it's very relevant for westerners to understand that when you hear these catchphrases which means people's voice or even the word democracy power sharing and you know more accountability that does not necessarily translate into what the western world understands as a democracy and what i mean by that is just just because you have the support of the people or what the people want as far as a majority will not necessarily translate into the understanding of a western secular democracy at all and i'll just give you some examples when you know when there were elections in algeria in one thousand nine hundred one the islamists were completely poised to win when there were elections. for the key you know the palestinian territories hamas and islam is you know classified as a terrorist organization one so and this is i'm not trying to say that people should not have a voice be heard but i think it's important to keep in mind that these words which

have a connotation to western ears do not necessarily mean the same thing they're sure that people want power and what they should be it's why and that's what i why not go ahead let me jump in this is cross talk about why this is i disagree with if hamas wins it should have been given that sounds through it i mean this not just because this and this not just in fact the end here the biggest mistake was in one thousand and three one when this notice one and there was a military intervention that served the country into a cycle of violence and there is this the same in palestine how must one and the word should have accepted this is that the word think that's up to some is this i mean that. it is. not going to be completely disagree. i agree i agree that if you want to be strictly fair about it yes the you know the people want and islam is a regime that if you want to be objective that's their right but at the same time that does not mean the west should agree to that of a country or

a movement like hamas is a terrorist organization so if the people want to that's one thing. i just point out to my viewers that the entire world does not look at hamas as a terrorist organization actually a small number of countries in the world look at the mosque as a terrorist or a god. all right here on that point there is i'm a junkie and i'm going to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the changing arab world stage r.t. .

well let's. just say. my name is daniel smith this is julian. make a short presentation about the wiki leaks project. the first. in the fourth day to get information out about the real world. to him.

under. the secrecy of the figures. you. put any sources and danger you would hunt me down and kill. this is exactly one of the reasons why we left the press because it has become more about this all james and. then all the actual information. thank you. so old people won't. be.

welcome back to cross talk computable remind you we're discussing new fault lines in the arab world. but first let's see what russians think about all this the uprisings across the arab world are changing the face of the region people are demanding more dignity and greater political freedoms but will lead to true revolutions and we'll live the real change as events unfold the russian public opinion research center asked citizens what is the most likely political outcome thirty eight percent think authorities will listen to the people twenty four percent said authorities are poised for greater tightening of their regimes and another nineteen percent they're not believe in real changes in the region so what is the best name for they then being played out in the arab world. ok peggy in london we were having an

interesting discussion before the break about the nature of democracy as it's understood on the ground now it shouldn't be should we be listening more closely on the ground what people want there because it's raman pointed out if you agree or disagree with him there's a certain western expectation of what democracies should mean as these events play out there is a difference between the two was unfair. absolutely there is when people on the ground they say democracy they do not mean they want to be like a front which went with the woman for wearing the headscarf they don't mean that they want to be like of pakistan or bangladesh so people come from particular perspective the arabs they're muslims they want for example polls show in two thousand and ten end of last year that they want to greater role for islam they don't want freedom of speech in the sense that you can insult the prophets of god whether that's jesus or the prophet muhammad peace be upon them so i think really when people say democracy on the ground in the in the middle east right now they

mean two things one the right to elect their rulers to the right to a culture the rulers without being thrown in jail and to look to their values their history for a form of governance that allows that democracy. the rule is and having a say and selecting the rule is not the sole preserve of western democracy but what it all means is that they want secularism they want societies where religion doesn't have a role to play and i think western audiences or western christian commentators maybe more more precisely need to be very careful of trying to portray that what is good in the muslim world in the arab world has nothing to do with the realities on the ground which is this is a muslim population largely arab population who have split people ask the russians i don't know i mean the west wholesale copy its values copy its systems their one their own historical narrative or what agrees with their beliefs so for example you talk about the caliphate system as a sum of governments that would allow representation the rights of minorities an

elected government this really is what they want what western secular liberal democracy is as most people understand that in the rest let me go to you in amman and it's an interesting point all right go ahead this is crosswalk jump right in. ok graham if i could just add to that first of all i do completely agree with what he said and i think we're on the same level with that and. also the caliphate and i think you would agree with the fact that you know he's pointing out that by and large these populations are muslim and that they would wish to see lawmaker sharia law implemented. what i would like to convey to the west is that this is not just simply a different form of government it is but historically and traditionally and one can argue doctrinally the concept of the caliphate and world view is fundamentally hostile to the non muslim world that does not mean that resurrects itself it will go. historically historically the caliphate will let me just let me finish

historically the caliphate began in six thirty in arabia one hundred years later it had spread to more and to spain and to pakistan through the jihad essentially through violence and conquest and it was consolidate in the very fact is that the muslim world as we know it today the overwhelming majority of it was conquered this is not what western polemicist say this is in fact recorded in the most authoritative muslim arabic so my point is that the caliphate and this is what i was trying to say earlier that sure people are free to take whatever form of government they want and you know muslims or islam is can have that kind of government and objectively speaking that seems fair but that's why i'm saying the west needs to understand that if people get what they want which as the others were saying would be a caliphate these things are very much at odds with the ok with the concept of united nations for example let me go ahead jump in here i know i disagree first of four that everybody in tunisia in egypt and in the media have not been dishonest

and they don't have any an islamist nature they're the majority of the arabs are muslim but there have not been islamists they've been calling for an end to the government's free if even if this free and fair elections and and. two police states they understand these are universal values they are not simply western concepts secondly there is a very tiny minority that squarely practically thinks although they believe it is not really violent but people are not calling for it belief that they are more then they're not calling for the believe it or leave islamic party is calling for a little of it and it has not been involved in any area you know is really right i agree with that by the way. we have been working on the hour is it ok tragedy go ahead and go ahead. i mean we have been on the ground and i members modernization the reporter with being part of the demonstrations in tahrir square in tunis there's a point here people are muslims what they lived under for

a large part of the last thirteen hundred years is islam what for minorities where we live side by side in places like egypt was a caliphate so in the new going forward should there be a discussion of vibrant discussion about what system of government should people desire and i think we definitely will be part of that discussion what's the words cannot do i wear burkas is to try. out the islam aspirations the people who want to have islam have a say in how they run their lives i think the danger that people in the west face is simply to say look it is not a conspiracy is intolerable well that was mr key part of things that supported for the last thirty years they are in no position western governments are in no position to try to tell the muslim world what you have i would be a state which guarantees people's rights a state which has a fantastic track record so what you cannot do is ignore this reality yes there are

other people who are not muslims in the region but let's engage in a vibrant discussion about what is the way forward this was a liberal democracy the only system of government and what is it solved in the european crisis in terms of the you. zone in terms of wars in iraq and afghanistan so why should people look to liberal democracy as if the sun rises from the west of course it doesn't look at this history or what's compatible with their values and their beliefs and this is why islam of the color really features a little able. to remain and in fresno it's a very interesting point can we just have a muslim democracy instead of a western democracy i mean it's always couched in these either or terms is that really necessary was either an artificial dichotomy. well the point is you can have if you talk about it again we have to bring back the concepts of the caliphate the notion of democracy in the western notion of democracy does not exist caliphate

the whole point is you have a leader of the. or the khalifa and he's the he's the head. and so the point is as we were discussing and as i agree i can understand why people muslims they don't want to implement the cycle or western world you and i also agree that this is not people tend to think whether there are westerners or muslims that their way of seeing the world is the universal way of seeing the world and that other people don't see it simply because they're misguided and i think that's kind of thinking needs to be adjusted to understand that no other people there are systems that the west would seem completely antithetical but to them they genuinely like it and they believe that this is the truth and now when you bring something like islam into the mix now you're talking about a divine message so there's no theological element involved but the main point that i'm getting at is you can have. faith in all that and in and of itself if they want . to rule for example cording to sharia i don't think that's a problem except of course for the minorities the non muslims because there is

a discriminatory element in shari'a law for non muslims but having served international level on an international level the concept the very concept of a caliphate is is hostile by nature to everything else. that islam needs to spread now i'm also agreeing with you that i don't think all of the people who are engaged in these uprisings want an islamist regime i do agree with that i think a lot of them want to know what the west should really do is try to differentiate between those who do want. to live like i did you really would like to let me ask you a question as we're running out of time here i mean this is a very interesting discussion but let's look at facts on the ground i mean with all the time. you know what kind of democracy might be appropriate might be inappropriate or talk a lot about models but let's talk about facts on the ground i mean we see protesters in bahrain being who knows by the time by the end of this day what will happen to them has nothing to do with democracy if it's islamic or western that's

called brute force. well i think i think we are off the mark here people are talking about fear societies and what's happened in egypt and tunisia is so important to the whole arab world that people are telling these revolutions are telling all forces in the arab world whether they are islamists without the left to say killer or liberal they're telling all forces that from now on we want is to think system of government from now on is there free elections no party where this islamists are coming this or leftist or whatever it is that's ideology is it cannot realize their power so this is why this change that we are witnessing is huge and many people are not is still grasping this is the nature of the chants this is a message to this list as well that you are part of their political map you are what of this democratic process but people have to respect and most people the

party system i think this has been very clear in their message and they think that the muslim brotherhood for example in egypt has understood the message and so far it has been complying ok to communicate let me senator john mccain i didn't think i did you try to the last word in london you had twenty five seconds go right ahead. well the change is on president to change the move forward there is an attempt to hijack this change western powers in support of these dictators are in the background trying to have a change of faces but not fundamental change there needs to be a real change of the systems of the constitutions so that the people who are won have a future which is aligned with their beliefs and their values and i don't believe that that is simply by a new late in some secular liberal democracy people damage ok when i hear this we've just started what's going to be a very long discussion for the region many thanks to my guest today in a month london and in fresno and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk you.

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