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in. the. kitchen. stove. listen to the phone oh. hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle the arab world the power of people's hopes and the deadly reactions of tyrants what are the prospects for progress towards a more democratic arab middle east are tunisia egypt leading the way or are libya and saudi arabia still the norm and what role if any should the us play. the case. started. to discuss the sea

change in the arab world i'm joined by lonnie's on domi in amman she's a middle east analyst and journalist in london we go to taji most if he is from his but a global islamic political party. and in fresno we go to raymond even i him he is an associate director from the middle east forum and author of the al qaeda reader and another member of our crosstalk team ill in the hunger all right folks this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want let me see if i can go to you first in amman right now we have a lot of things going on in the arab world right now we have a crackdown in bahrain we have the saudi forces that went in over a twenty four hours ago as we sit down for this discussion it has been reported that a protester killed one of the saudi troops we have mr qaddafi pushing further and further east as the west of the western world there is if it should intervene or not and given past history there are good reasons for that so what's the direction here is are enormous in the greater middle east are we just stuck in

a huge sandstorm and we don't know which way it's going to go whereas the sense of excitement euphoria that goes the arab world that the bells there were a few weeks ago is being replaced by deep concern and fear that this too is it is degenerating into service especially after this it's bad for that if you use an aries in libya and there's fear not. present in the and behind him could. i would sit with insufficient goods into and out and start over the. conflict. a cynical flicked so we are at a crossroad today and we're all very concerned ok if i can turn to you know turn to you now raymond in and out fresno or where do you see is in this sandstorm i mean we just heard a number of things that are going on you see a particular direction or are we still can't tell yet. i think we still can tell i

think we need to try to adopt a more panoramic vision and try to take lessons from history and what i mean by that is we are in the early stages of the revolutions across the arab world we're watching history in the making in fact this is the sort of stuff that will actually make it in the history books as opposed to so much of the other things that make major headlines every day but what we need to keep in mind is revolutions you know we're watching the first few months not not even we haven't even got a year in all that we're watching and if you look at the earlier presidents from other nations other revolutions whether it's the american revolution or french revolution the russian revolution you'll find that there was bloodshed in the beginning but you know maybe there was no way to predict how things ultimately and it takes oftentimes a decade before you really see how all this will eventually turn up the fact is there is a lot of contending factors contributing to what we're watching and we're only aware of you know oftentimes just a small aspect and i'll just give you one example i'm in touch with people in egypt

and many people and in different parts of egypt and they give me they're taking a lot of them are intimately related to what's going on and speaking to these people you'll find that each one of them has a different take one of them will tell you that what's really going on is primarily the youth of egypt and that this is a good thing and that this will ultimately hopefully evolve into a comedy into a democracy then you have another person who lives a few miles away was convinced that the muslim brotherhood is ultimately behind this employing the strings when you have other people talk about the egyptian military which in the media in america is in a way ironically has been touted as this great substitute for mubarak and then the other more sober thinkers who are there are telling you that in many ways they're actually worse and not much has changed and if you really do go on the ground in egypt you'll find that there's a lot of the same exact same sort of. if you. it's case kind of interesting if i'm

going to talk to you there well we already have a precedent early in the in this process here if it's the revolutionary process if we can call it that we have we have. a seeming rip support for democratic forces if we call them democratic forces in egypt and tunisia there's a lot of dithering over libya what to do about libya and certainly there's a strong american support behind the scenes scenes for saudi arabia so it really is on a case by case basis isn't it and we're seeing different presidents that in different ways. so there are different places got there is also a commonality and that commonality is the fact that whilst issues are still evolving and some facts have been established number one that the people want to have their voice heard the people demand change the slogan shop you read a script and leave them the people want a collapse of the system is uniform everywhere so what really we see on one level is a division between the people who have been oppressed subjugated for years by western

backed potatoes against the western backed rulers the reality in libya. reign and sowed in other places is a fight back by the rulers so really there's a clear division as to what the two sides are going forward can the rulers last forever no so these revolutions are works in progress but they will end up alternately with the triumph of the people's will that's an inevitable force you cannot stop with them but it's the us and their allies and agents in the region are they fighting back now employ military force etc yes they are and that is to be expected and so there is a lot still unfolding still to see but that the people want a new system in line with their values that believes that history free from the police arrest interference and all that but as i should be going to stop it right now where do we go from here where does the future lie this is the ongoing debate ultimately once we overcome this resistance by the rulers of the moment ok let me

say that we don't have a very good president center in bahrain right now because it looks like the ruling class is going to stay try to stay in power at all costs because they call it a security situation in the small island but you call in the military a thousand troops get tanks i mean that sounds very serious and we have a report as we sat down here but violence has already started because of that incursion if we can put it that way i think i said i think that arab leaders have. to have at it at first that they were compelled. that and make changes and promise reforms but after they saw what happened in libya and the fact that the libyan president is there this to store his people and this country in order to state in power they've been really does unfortunately have been in power are they going to think that they could continue or crush the. uprisings and this is what's happening in by hand at first taking. the acted with violence

with force then he promised reform then he called for dialogue and now he is. he is getting so they're able to help him crush their presence in saudi arabia in the in the hand but that doesn't mean that this is the end of the illusion i think that they grew with their others because from london is that new facts have been established that people are not going back they want accountable governments and they read it second slice what we have seen here is that people are it is even to die in order to change the governments or and to get more accountable governments to have more power sharing more say to put an end to repression and to put an end to corruption so we're going to see a big conflict between the people and the leaders and the and the regimes and it has. better is still as it's beginning or even if i'm very in fresno again how you

share. a lot of these regimes i know there's a lot of them in there and they're in there's some very nuanced differences among them but we hear the word reform and to what degree could a lot of the police reform to match the discourse of western what we would call western freedoms freedom of speech freedom of assembly. i would i would argue not very well and similarly i'd like to actually go to. earlier point which goes to what you're saying which is that this is really the people's voice in the people's uprising and the people want to be heard and powerful and i completely agree with that but i think it's very relevant for westerners to understand that when you hear these catchphrases which means people's voice or even the word democracy power sharing and you know more accountability that does not necessarily translate into what the western world understands as a democracy and what i mean by that is just just because you have the support of the people or what the people want as far as a majority will not necessarily translate into the understanding of

a western secular democracy at all and i'll just give you some examples when you know when there were elections in algeria in one thousand nine hundred one the islam ists were completely poised to win when there were elections in for the people you know the palestinian territories hamas and islam is you know classified as is there is organization one so and this is i'm not trying to say that people should not have the voice be heard but i think it's important to keep in mind that these words which have a connotation to western ears and not necessarily mean the same thing they're sure that people want our i mean what is really why and that's when i why it's ok let me jump in this is crosstalk about why this is i disagree with if hamas wins it should have been given the chance to do it i mean it's not just because it's an islamist in fact and here the biggest mistake was in ninety nine when islamists won and there was a military intervention that served the country into a cycle of violence and this is the same and palestine how must go on and the word

should have accepted that instead there would be accept it some is this i mean. it is but as you know it is going to be completely disagree. i agree i agree that if you want to be strictly fair about it yes you know the people want islamist regime then if you want to be objective that's their right but at the same time that does not mean the west should agree to that of a country or a movement like hamas is a terrorist organization so if the people want to that's one thing. i'd like. to my viewers think that the entire world does not look at hamas is a terrorist organization actually a small number of countries in the world look at the mosques as a terrorist or god. all right here on that point there is i mean john i'm going to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the changing arab world stage with r.t. . sports

is political in ways we don't often even notice especially on the level of culture where our ideas and attitudes as a society are shaped. the ties between professional football and the u.s. military have existed since the start of the n.f.l. back in one thousand twenty that relationship meant slaves during world war two and today that bond is stronger than ever. we are incented us to kill all kill all killed kill kill a little bit of recent history is taught us the sports never just something that we

just sit back and mock at sports always had an important social function in the history of american sports is no different. down by the official anti allegation joe on the phone on called touch from me on shootouts to. watch all she lives on the go. video on demand on cheese mind bold colors an r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. question on the potty job call.

keep. welcome back to cross talk on q. remind you we're discussing new fault lines in the arab world.

but first let's see what russians think about all this. the uprisings across the arab world are changing the face of the region people are demanding more dignity and greater political freedoms but. revolutions and will there be a real change as events unfold the russian public opinion research center asked citizens what is the most likely political outcome thirty eight percent think authorities will listen to the people when a proper sunset authorities are poised for greater tightening of their regimes and another nineteen percent do not believe in real changes in the region so what is the best name for the bends being played out in the arab world. ok peggy in london we were having an interesting discussion before the break about the nature of democracy as it's understood on the ground now it should be should we be

listening more closely on the ground what people want there because as raymond pointed out if you agree or disagree with him there's a certain western expectation of what democracy should mean as these events play out there is a difference between the two was unfair. absolutely there is when people on the ground they say democracy they do not mean they want to be like france which bans muslim women for wearing the headscarf they don't mean that they want to be like a pakistan or bangladesh so people come from a particular perspective the arabs they're muslims they want for example polls show in two thousand and ten end of last year that they want to greater role for islam they don't want freedom of speech in the sense that you can insult the prophets of god whether that jesus of the prophet muhammad peace be upon them so i think really what people say democracy on the ground in the in the middle east right now that mean two things one the right to elect their rule is to the right to a culture the rulers without being thrown in jail and the need to look to their

values their history for a form of government that allows that democracy. a culture of the rule is that having a say and selecting the rule is not the sole preserve of western democracy but what it all means is that they want secularism they want societies where religion doesn't have a role to play and i think western audiences are restive queston commentators maybe more precisely need to be very careful of trying to portray that what is good in the muslim world in the arab world has nothing to do with the realities of the ground which is a muslim population largely arab population who have expertise aspirations and don't want to emulate the west wholesale copied values complete systems they want their own historical narrative of what agrees with their beliefs or for example here talk about the caliphate system as a sum of governance that would allow representation the rights of minorities an elected government this really is what they want not western secular liberal

democracy as as most people understand it in the west let me see if i go to you in amman and it's an interesting point all right go ahead this is crosswalk jump right ahead. go ahead ma'am if i can just add to that first of all i do completely agree with what he said and i think we're on the same level with that and. also the caliphate and i think you would agree with the fact that you know he's pointing out that by and large these populations are muslim and they would wish to see lawmakers sharia law implemented. what i would like to convey to the west is that this is not just simply a different form of government it is but historically and traditionally and one can argue doctrinally the concept of the caliphate and the world view is fundamentally hostile to the non muslim world that does not mean that if a caliphate resurrects itself it will go. historically historically the caliphate well let me just let me finish historically the caliphate began in sixth. in arabia one hundred years later it had spread to more it to spain and to pakistan through

the jihad essentially through violence and conquest and it was consolidated in the very fact is that the muslim world as we know it today the overwhelming majority of it was conquered this is not western polemicist say this is in fact recorded in the most authoritative muslim arabic books so my point is that the caliphate and this is what i was trying to say earlier that sure people are free to pick whatever form of government they want and you know muslims or islam is can have that kind of government and objectively speaking that seems fair but that's why i'm saying the west needs to understand that if people get what they want which as the others were saying would be a caliphate these things are very much at odds with the concept of united nations for example let me go ahead jump in here i know i disagree first of course that every lucian's in tunisia in egypt and in the media have not. and they don't have any an islamist minister there the majority of the arabs are muslim but their view since have not be dishonest they've been calling for and accountable governments

free the free and freedom of the press free and fair elections and and. police states they understood these are universal values they are not simply western concepts secondly there is a very tiny minority this calling for it because if it although they believe it is not really violent but people are not calling for a belief that they are more then they're not going for the believe that only the islamic party is really critical of it and it has not been involved in any of these really right i agree with that by the. way we have been warning or is it ok to go ahead. i mean we have been on the ground and i live is now going as a show in the reporter with being part of the demonstrations in tahrir square in tunis there's a point here the people are muslims what they lived for a large part of the last thirteen hundred years is islam not cater for minorities

where we live side by side in places like egypt was a caliphate so the new going forward should be a discussion of vibrant discussion about what system of government should people desire and i think we definitely will be part of that discussion what's the worst cannot do and their backers used to try to ignore that they are slamming us durations the people who want to have a. have a say in how they run their lives i think the danger that people in the west face is simply to say look at this law because the regime is intolerable well that was nice to keep out of things that supported dictators for the last thirty years they are in no position western governments are in no position to try to tell the muslim world what you have i will be a state which guarantees people's rights a state which was a fantastic track record so what you cannot do is ignore this reality yes there are other people who are not muslims in the region but let's engage in a vibrant discussion about what is the way forward and this was

a little democracy the only system of government on earth what does it solve the crisis in terms that you. zone in terms of the wars in iraq and afghanistan so why should people look to liberal democracy as if the sun rises from the west of course it doesn't they look to the history of what's compatible with their values and beliefs and this is why islam of the caliphate definitely features on the table we're going to remain in in fresno it's a very interesting point can we just have a muslim democracy instead of a western democracy i mean it's always couched in these either or terms is that really necessary reside an artificial dichotomy. well the point is you can have if you talk about it again we have to bring back the concepts of caliphate the notion of democracy the western notion of democracy does not exist the caliphate the whole point is you have a leader. or the khalif and he's there and he's the head. and so the point is as

we were discussing and i agree i can understand why people muslims don't want to implement the western world view and i also agree that this is not people tend to think whether there are westerners or muslims that their way of seeing the world is the universal way of seeing the world and that other people don't see it simply because they're misguided now i think that's kind of thinking needs to be adjusted to understand that no other people there are systems that the west would seem completely antithetical but then they genuinely like it and they believe that this is the truth they know when you bring something like islam into the mix now you're talking about a divine message so there's no theological element involved but the main point that i'm getting at is you can have a muslim caliphate and all that in and of itself if they want. to rule for example or cording to surely i don't think that's a problem except of course for the minorities the non muslims because there is a discriminatory element in shari'a law for non muslims but. international level on

an international level the concept the very concept of a caliphate is is hostile by nature to everything else all right let me. use according to. islam needs to spread now i'm also agreeing with you that i don't think all of the people who are engaged in these uprisings want an islamist regime i do agree with that i think a lot of them want it but what the west should really do is try to differentiate between those who do want. to live like i'd like to be she really would like. to ask you a question is we're running out of time here i mean this is a very interesting discussion but let's look at facts on the ground i mean with all the time. i know what kind of democracy might be appropriate might be inappropriate or talk a lot about models but let's talk about facts on the ground i mean we see protesters in bahrain being who knows by the time by the end of this day what will happen to them has nothing to do with democracy if it's islamic or western that's called brute force. well i think i think we are off the mark here people are talking

about fear societies and what's happened in egypt and tunisia is so important to the whole arab world that people are telling these evolutionary are telling all forces in the arab world whether they are islam is without the left to secular or or liberal this telling all forces that from now on we want is a state existence of government from now on is there free elections no party where this islamists are communists or leftists or whatever it is its ideology is it cannot one applies the power so this is why the change since we are witnessing is huge and many people are not is still grasping this is the nature of the change this is a message to this nervous as well that you are part of the political mark you are poor out of this democratic process but people have to respect and i think the party system i think this religion has been very clear in their message and they think that the muslim brotherhood for example in egypt has understood the message

and so far it has been compliant kate at least kate let me senator john mccain and i got him thinking about your tie to the last word in london you have twenty five seconds go right ahead. well the change is unprecedented the changes are moving forward there is an attempt to hijack this change western powers who supported these dictators are in the background trying to have a change of faces but not fundamental change there needs to be a real change of the systems of the constitutions so that the people who are one of the future which is in line with their beliefs and their values and i don't believe that that is simply by a new late in some secular liberal democracy people. here culturally so we've just started what's going to be a very long discussion for the region many thanks to my guests today in amman london and in fresno and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk. can. see.

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