rachel martin here broadcasting live from washington d.c. coming up today on the big picture.

more news today is once again flared up. and these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada. china's hope for asian to rule the day.

the same. can't. stand.

alone in welcoming cross-talk i'm peter lavelle the arab world the power of people's hopes and the deadly reactions of tyrants what are the prospects for progress towards a more democratic arab middle east are tunisia and egypt leading the way or are libya and saudi arabia still the norm and what role if any should the west play. can. start. to discuss the sea change in the arab world i'm joined by let me sunday on the in amman she's a middle east analyst and journalist in london we go to taji most of our he's from his but a global islamic political party and in fresno we go to raymond he but i am he is an associate director from the middle east forum and author of the al qaeda reader and another member of our crosstalk team on the hunger all right folks this is cross talk means you can jump in anytime you want let me see if i can go to you

first in amman right now we have a lot of things going on in the arab world right now we have a crackdown in bahrain we have the saudi forces they went in over a twenty four hours ago as we sit down for this discussion it has been reported that a protester killed one of the saudi troops we have mr gadhafi pushing further and further east as the west of the western world there is if it should intervene or not and given past history there are good reasons for that so what's the direction here is there any normal in the greater middle east are we just stuck in a huge sandstorm and we don't know which way it's going to go. where is the sense of excitement and euphoria that has engulfed the arab world that the veneer of the arab world here weeks ago is being replaced by deep concern and fear that the stew efficient is degenerating into civil strife especially after the setback for the revolutionaries in the libya and there is fear now that. the president in the and behind him could it into. the intervention could

deteriorate into it and. then it is conflict and share our sunni conflict so we are at a crossroad today and we're all very concerned ok if i can surely you know turn to you now raymond and our friends now where do you see isn't this an storm i mean we just heard there are a number of things that are going on you see a particular direction or are we still can't tell yet. i think we still can tell i think we need to try to adopt a more panoramic vision and try to take lessons from history and what i mean by that is we are in the early stages of the revolutions across the arab world we're watching history in the making in fact this is the sort of stuff that will actually make it in the history books as opposed to so much of the other things that make major headlines every day but what we need to keep in mind is revolutions you know we're watching the first few months not not even we haven't even got

a year in all that we're watching and if you look at earlier presidents from other nations other revolutions whether it's the american revolution or french revolution the russian revolution you'll find that there was bloodshed in the beginning but you know there was no way to predict how things alternately and it takes oftentimes a decade before you really see how all this will eventually turn out the fact is there's a lot of contending factors contributing to what we're watching and we're only aware of you know oftentimes just small aspects and i'll just give you one example and i'm in touch with people in egypt and many people and in different parts of egypt and they give me their taken a lot of them are intimately related to what's going on and speaking to these people you'll find that each one of them has a different take and one of them will tell you that what's really going on is primarily the youth of egypt and that this is a good thing and that this will ultimately hopefully evolve into a comedy and a democracy and you have another person who lives

a few miles away who's convinced that the muslim brotherhood is ultimately behind this employing the strings then you have other people talk about the egyptian military which in the media in america is in a way ironically has been touted as this great substitute for mubarak and then other more sober thinkers who are there are telling you that in many ways they're actually worse and not much has changed and if you really do go on the ground in egypt you'll find that there's a lot of of the same exact sort of. it's case kind of a or c. if i'm going to taji there well we already have a precedent early in the in this process here if the revolutionary process supreme call it that we have we have. a seeming ripped support for democratic forces if we call them democratic forces in egypt in tunisia there's a lot of dithering over libya what to do about libya and certainly there's no strong american support behind the scenes scenes for saudi arabia so it really isn't a case by case basis isn't it and we're seeing different precedents that in different

ways. so there are different cases but there is also a commonality and that commonality is the fact that whilst issues are still evolving some facts have been established number one that the people want to have their voice heard the people demand change the slogan and shove your readers courtenay them the people will collapse of the system is uniform everywhere so what really we see on one level is a division between the people who have been a press subjugated for years by western backed the taters against the western backed rulers the reality in libya. rain and saudi other places is a fight back by the rulers so really there's a clear division as to what the two sides are going forward can the rulers last forever no so these revolutions are works in progress but they will end up ultimately with the triumph of the people's will that's an inevitable force you cannot stop against but it's the us and their allies and agents in the region are

they fighting back now employ military force etc yes they are and that is to be expected so there is a lot still unfolding still to see but that the people want a new system in line with their values their believes the history free from the police state western interference and all that that has actually been established right now where do we go from here what is the future lie this is the ongoing debate the ultimate lee once we overcome this resistance by the rulers at the moment ok let me say but we don't have a very good president center in bahrain right now because it looks like the ruling class is going to stay try to stay in power at all cost base they call it a security situation in the small island but you call in the military a thousand troops get tanks that mean that sounds very serious and we have a report as we sat down here the violence has already started because of that incursion if we can put it that way yes i think i said i think that arab leaders have. a lot of ethnic at first that they were compelled. make adapt

and make changes and promise reforms but after they saw what happened in libya and the fact that the libyan president is ready to store his people and his country in order to state and follow or they've been there really there's unfortunately have been empowered again to think that they could continue or crush. the uprising and this is what's happening in the head in at first the king. acted with violence with force then he promised reforms then he called for dialogue and now he is. he is getting saudi arabia to help him crush their president in saudi arabia in the in by hand but that doesn't mean that this is the end of their new show and i think that they agree with the others because from london is that new facts have been established that people are not going back they want accountable governments

and they're a good second for ice what we have seen here is that people are it it even to die in order to change the governments or and to get more accountable governments to have more power sharing to have more say to put an end to repression and to put an end to corruption so we're going to see a big conflict between the people and the leaders and the and the regimes and it has. the better is still at its beginning or even if i go in fresno again how we are in for a lot of these regimes i know there's a lot of them in there and they're in there some very nuanced differences among them but we hear the word reform and to what degree could a lot of the regimes are trying to match the discourse of western what we would call western freedoms freedom of speech freedom of assembly. i would i would argue not very well and similarly i'd like to actually go to. the earlier point which goes to what you're saying which is that this is really the people's voice in

the people's uprising and the people want to be heard and powers and i completely agree with that but i think it's very relevant for westerners to understand that when you hear these catchphrases which means people's voice or even the word democracy power sharing and you know more accountability that does not necessarily translate into what the western world understands as a democracy and what i mean by that is just just because you have the support of the people or what the people want as far as a majority will not necessarily translate into the understanding of a western secular democracy at all and i'll just give you some examples when you know when there are elections in algeria and one thousand nine hundred one deism ists were completely poised to win when there were elections in for the people you know in the palestinian territories hamas and islam estate and you know classified as a terrorist organization one so and this is i'm not trying to say that people should not have the voice be heard but i think it's important to keep in mind that these words which have

a connotation to western ears do not necessarily mean the same thing they're sure that people want power then what is really it's why and that's when i. got to go ahead let me jump in this is crosstalk about why this is i disagree with if hamas wins it should have been given that sounds through it i mean it's not just because it's an islamist in fact and here the biggest mistake was in ninety nine when this notice won and there was a military intervention that drove the country into a cycle of violence and there is the same in palestine how must one of them the word should have accepted it instead they were i think accept it some is this is a me you. know it is but you are going to have no right this is going to be completely disagree. i agree i agree that if you want to be strictly fair about it yes you know the people want and islam is a regime that if you want to be objective that's their right but at the same time that does not mean the west should agree to that of a country or

a movement like hamas is a terrorist organization so if the people want to that's one thing. that the entire world does not look at hamas is a terrorist organization actually a small number of countries in the world look at the mosques as a terrorist organization i understand all right here on that point there is i mean john i'm going to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the changing arab world stage with r.t. . download the official t.m.p. cation q i phone the i pod touch from the i choose option. one cianci life on the

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welcome back across time purely remind you we're discussing new fault lines in the arab world. ok. but first let's see what russians think about all this the uprisings across the arab world are changing the face of the region people are demanding more dignity and greater political freedoms but will lead to true revolutions and will be a real change as events unfold the russian public opinion research center asked citizens what is the most likely political outcome thirty eight percent think authorities will listen to the people twenty four percent said authorities are

poised for greater tightening of their regimes and another nineteen percent do not believe in real changes in the region so what is the best name for the event being played out in the arab world. ok pecci in london we were having an interesting discussion before the break about the nature of democracy as it's understood on the ground now it should be should we be listening more closely on the ground what people want there because it's raman pointed out if you agree or disagree with him there's a certain western expectation of what democracy should mean as these events play out there is a difference between the two was unfair. absolutely there is when people on the ground they say democracy they do not mean they want to be like france which grants muslim women for wearing the headscarf they don't mean they want to be like a pakistan or bangladesh so people come from a particular perspective the arabs the muslims they want for example polls showing

two thousand and ten end of last year that they want a greater role for islam they don't want freedom of speech in the sense that you can insult the prophets of god with or that jesus of a prophet muhammad peace be upon them so i think really when people say democracy on the ground in the in the middle east let me two things one the right to elect their rulers to the right to a culture the rulers without being thrown in jail and need to look to their values their history for a form of government that allows that democracy. the rule is that having a say and selecting the rule is not the sole preserve of western democracy but what it all mean is that they want secularism they want societies where religion doesn't have a role to play and i think western audiences are worse and question commentators many more precisely the to be very careful of trying to portray that what is good in the muslim world in the arab world has nothing to do with the realities on the ground which is a muslim population largely arab population who have expertise and don't want to

emulate the west wholesale copy its values copy its systems they want their own historical narrative of what agrees with their beliefs and for example here talk about the caliphate system as a sum of governments that would allow representation or rights of minorities an elected government this really is what they want not western secular liberal democracy as most people understand that in the west let me see if i go to you in a minute and it's an interesting point did you are right go ahead this is crossfire jump right ahead. ok graham if i could just add to that first of all i do completely agree with what he said and i think we're on the same level with that and i do. and i think he would agree with the fact that you know he's pointing out by and large these populations are muslim and they would wish to see islamic sharia law implemented. what i would like to convey to the west is that this is not just simply a different form of government it is historically and traditionally and one can

argue doctrine only the concept of the caliphate and world view is fundamentally hostile to the non muslim world that does not mean a caliphate resurrects itself it will go. with this story historically the caliphate will let me just let me finish historically the caliphate began in sixty . you know arabia one hundred years later it had spread to more and to spain and to pakistan through the jihad essentially through violence and conquest and it was consolidate in the very fact is that the muslim world as we know it today the overwhelming majority of it was conquered this is not what western polemicist say this is in fact recorded in the most authoritative muslim arabic books so my point is that the caliphate and this is what i was trying to say earlier that sure people are free to pick whatever form of government they want muslims or islam is can have that kind of government and objectively speaking that seems fair but that's why i'm saying the west needs to understand that if people get what they want which is the

other speaker saying would be a caliphate these things are very much at odds with the concept of united nations for example let me go ahead jump in here i know i disagree first for every lucian's in tunisia in egypt and in the media have not been islamists and they don't have any an islamist minister they are the majority of the arabs are muslim but they have you since have not been dishonest they've been calling for an accountable governments free. of the first free and fair elections and and. it's they understood these are universal values they are not simply western concepts secondly they're there's a very tiny minority there's calling for it because if it's over the cliff it is not really violent but people are not calling for a belief that they are more did they not only this to me to have parties calling for they believe it and it has not been involved in any area you know is really

right i agree with that by the way actually. we have been working on the or is it ok tragedy go ahead in london go ahead yeah i mean we have been on the ground in my members modernization the reporter with being part of the demonstrations in tahrir square in tunis there's a point here the people are muslims what they lived under for a large part of the last thirteen hundred years is what cater for minorities where we live side by side in places like egypt was the caliphate so in the new going forward should there be a discussion of vibrant discussion about what system of government should people desire and i think we definitely will be part of that discussion what's the worst cannot do on their burkas is to try to ignore all of the aspirations the people who want to have a. have a say in how they run their lives i think the danger that people in the west face

is simply to say look it is not because the regime is intolerable well the worse mystically part of things they've supported dictators for the last thirty years they are in no position western governments are in no position to try to tell the muslim world what you have i would be a state which guarantees people's rights which was a fantastic track record so what you cannot do is ignore this reality yes there are other people who are not muslims in the region but let's engage in a vibrant discussion about what is the way forward and this was a liberal democracy the only system of government on earth was it solved you know the european crisis in terms of the you. zone in terms of the wars in iraq and afghanistan so why should people look to liberal democracy as if the sun rises from the west of course it doesn't look at their history or what's compatible with their values and their beliefs and this is why islam of the caliphate really features on the table we're going to remain in in fresno it's a very interesting point can we just have a muslim democracy instead of a western democracy i mean it's always couched in these either or terms is that

really necessary or is that an artificial dichotomy. well the point is you can have if you talk about it again we have to bring back the concepts of the caliphate the notion of democracy the western notion of democracy does not exist the caliphate the whole point is you have a leader of. the khalif and he's there and he's the head and so the point is as we were discussing and i agree i can understand why people muslims don't want to implement the cycle or western world view and i also agree that this is not people tend to think whether there are westerners or muslims that their way of seeing the world is the universal way of seeing the world and that other people don't see it simply because they're misguided and i think that's kind of thinking needs to be adjusted to understand that no other people there are systems that the west would seem completely antithetical but then they genuinely like it and they believe that this is the truth and now when you bring something like islam into the mix now

you're talking about a divine message so there's no divine theological element involved but the main point that i'm getting at is you can have a muslim caliphate and all that and in and of itself if they want in the islamic lands to rule for example or courting to assure you i don't think that's a problem except of course for the minorities the non muslims because there is a discriminatory element in shari'a law for non muslims but. international level on an international level the concept the very concept of a caliphate is is hostile by nature to everything else. according to. islam needs to spread now i'm also agreeing with you that i don't think all of the people who are engaged in these uprisings want an islamist regime i do agree with that i think a lot of them want it but what the west should really do is try to differentiate between those who do want. to live i did you. want to ask you

a question as we're running out of time here i mean this is a very interesting discussion but let's look at facts on the ground i mean we've all been to. what kind of democracy might be appropriate might be inappropriate or talk a lot about models but let's talk about that from the ground i mean we see protesters in bahrain being who knows by the time by the end of this day what will happen to them has nothing to do with democracy if it's islamic or western that's called brute force. well i think i think we are off the mark here people are talking about fear societies and what's happened in egypt and tunisia is so important to the whole arab world that people are telling these evolution where is are telling all forces in the arab world whether they are islam is without the leftists a killer or liberal this telling all forces that from now on we want is to exist and of government from now on if there are free elections no party where this islamists are coming this or leftist or whatever it is its ideology is it's cannot one applies the power so this is why the change that we are witnessing is huge and

many people on earth is still grasping this is the nature of the change this is a message to this man this as well that you are part of the political map you are poor it of this democratic process but people have to respect and i think really party system i think this has been very clear in their message and they think that the muslim brotherhood for example in egypt has understood the message and so far it has been compliant kate at least kate let me senator john barrow i got in thinking about your tie to the last word in london you got twenty five seconds go right ahead. well the change is on president to change the move forward there is an attempt to hijack this chain of western powers in support of this dictator is now in the background trying to have a change of faces but not fundamental change there needs to be a real change of the systems of the constitutions so that the people who are run have a future which is aligned with their beliefs and their values and i don't believe that that is simply by emulating some secular liberal democracy people. here

culturally so we've just started what's going to be a very long discussion for the region many thanks to my guest today in amman london and in fresno and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk things. became. the official t.m.p. cation secure phone i pod touch from the accused armstrong. video on demand. minefield. and. now in the palm of your.