more news today violence is once again flared up. these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada. trying to look for a show the day. seven thirty pm in moscow we've got breaking news this hour there's reports of an explosion at that metro out a metro station in the bella russian capital minutes there have been some high witness reports of casualties had least ten people are said to be injured emergency services have been sent to the scene we'll bring you the latest on this as we get more details stay with us here on r.g.p. for more information. russia and poland mark a fatal accident that tore the two nations apart but at the same time saw them

unite dimitri medvedev and bronislaw komorowski have paid their respects to the victims of a fatal plane crash that killed poland's president and many of the country's political elite on the anniversary of the massacre and. peace in libya depends on the rebels as the african union suggests a resolution to the conflict colonel qadhafi has agreed to the union's proposal and says he's prepared to negotiate with the opposition the rebels say there will be no truce until the libyan leader steps down the. trouble brewing in france as a law banning the burka goes into effect with many accusing the government of discrimination and racism against muslims at least two women wearing veils have been arrested for taking part in an authorised protest against the bad french opinion polls suggest some people think officials will deliberately trying to stir up tensions in. the next peter lavelle and cross talk guest discussed whether foreign intervention in libya may pave the way for al qaeda it's

take root in the country stay with us what's coming up next. can. stand. alone and welcome to cross talk i'm peter a little opening the door to tear the al qaeda franchise has been largely absent from the arab awakening in north africa people appear to be embracing democracy and not radical islam however this may change the military intervention in libya and the violence in yemen could be an opportunity for al qaida. can.

start. discussing al qaeda in the arab world today i'm joined by an old abbas like he's in washington he's a senior political scientist at the rand corporation also in washington we have graham rami he is a human and civil rights program director at the muslim american society freedom and in austin we go to derrick crow he is a political director at the brave new foundation in another member of our cross talk in jail on a hunger strike derrick in austin you got up early as for this program so i'm going to go you first. is with we've thanks you know during the day we look at the the transformation of the arab world the him the embrace of democracy and getting rid of these vicious dictators have been around for for decades the dictators and some of people on the right wing of said be careful al qaeda is out there to take advantage of it but we've seen successful growing successes in the arab middle east but now we have the intervention in libya and we're hearing al qaeda again do you feel that there is a strong enough evidence to believe that al qaeda is trying to infiltrate itself

into the ranks of this civil war is what's happening right now in libya i mean we haven't heard a lot about al qaeda lately and all sudden we while we get the word from the cia there's a flicker of activity how do you reflect on that. well i'll i think al qaeda is always looking for ways to insinuate itself into situations where there's chaos or a lack of law and order like we're seeing in afghanistan right now we're hearing that even though we've shelved thousands and thousands of more u.s. troops into there somehow we still have al qaeda cells popping up and that that really shows i think the brokenness of the u.s. strategy there for on one end but i do think that there's always the danger that when there's these areas of instability like this that al qaeda tries to insinuate itself but our i think you should always take with a grain of salt sometimes the united states intelligence community you know off the record pronouncements that al qaeda is insinuating itself into a situation because they're kind of the bogeyman that we've set up when we want to intervene somewhere and you know if i go if i go to you in washington it was that

cache of documents that came out a cache of documents in two thousand and seven and it was revealed in iraq that a number of volunteers to be suicide bombers came from libya from eastern libya now again is this going is this just the boogeyman coming out and if you and this is just the try to convince people for against intervention because again the. pure coincidence that a lot of these people came from eastern libya apparently our new ally in the region as the civil war goes on what do you think about that is how true is it. well there used to be a group in libya the libyan islamic fighting group and this was. one of the many groups in north africa that they have some degree of association with i would tell you that what happened is they care about the government was successful

in essentially crushing this group most of the of the leaders in jail and the ones that survived migrated to other places so far of conflict so this is this is why you find libyans for example in high positions with the al qaeda core in pakistan afghanistan area is because of the defeat of alevi and islamic fighting group in libya and now what happened in libya is very very before this latest crisis it's very very interesting because the they got their free government enter into. into discussions with the recently there are leaders of alevi on islamic fighting group and somehow their leadership of the group went through a process of reassessing the examining their ideology and they ended up we now seeing violence and as a result of these

a number of them were let out of prison so basically i would tell you that they've not have a strong presence in libya when both against gaddafi develop this is what i don't think that there is a great danger that extremist groups will take over the world are very interesting on that is very interesting libya and it's very interesting irrespective of the numbers here i mean and it in and all kind is always changing for you know him if i go to you in washington i mean it's kind of an interesting irony right here i mean maybe formal al qaeda pretty there are calls to arm these rebels i mean it. there is a great of historical irony there isn't there i mean these people that were. sworn to destroy western influence and their allies in the region or could be armed by the united states and nato it's a i mean it's kind of like the mujahideen and possibly if it works out. well well that's a possibility i think we have to understand that al qaeda is not

a political organization in the conventional sense of the word it's not structured around an ideology it's really a terrorist group that. whose primary purpose is to create situations that destroy human life and that insinuate themselves and political situations that will ultimately lead in some attack perhaps on the united states of america or other western countries the sense that i have right now is that civil society in libya and the civil society that emerges from the civil war is going to have to be very good visual and also very much aware of the fact that tolerating that kind of violent extremism is not a benefit to either of the evolution of democracy in libya or to libyan coexistence with the rest of the world so my sense is further that those of us who really reject violence and reject violence as a means of moving the arab world forward and specifically libya forward will

ultimately have to be not only aware of that potential danger but also build up civil society to the point where. those kinds of attitudes and those kinds of extremist ideologies are not are not tolerated or supported ok if i if i go back to . it's very interesting and we feel look at the. how the intervention is changing the kind of the discourse that is going on here i mean only a few weeks ago we were talking about the great rise of democracy now more of the focus is on civil war is an opening for al qaeda to say look i mean the the americans are nato allies they're going to protect some of their dictator friends are going to let some of them go it's a lot more ambiguous than this narrative it's the freedom of nations in north africa they can take advantage of that. it and they kind of tell you that could the first speaker remains oh. it is always looking for opportunities to take advantage of chaos let me mention one thing i see

a great deal of both a similarity between what is happening in libya today and what happened in boston here in the mid ninety's because usually called the during the the war in bosnia. muslims were beleaguered. a third and two for assistance you know iranians were the main supporters of the it was in muslims in the early stages of the war there was a danger of infiltration by extremist elements there was a whole brigade fighting in bosnia on the site of the muslims of out of mujahideen this were extremists. many of them were affiliated with al-qaeda so so you have these the situation in bosnia in the mid one nine hundred ninety s. were it look as the fixed elements were going to gain great influence and they did

know what the united states and its associates partners and allies did in bosnia they engaged with the boston for the nation comprising both the a muslim and croatian sites and they put in place a program to train and equip the other forces of the boston for the nation so there was this direct engagement and what that did is it provided the united states with the lead british that it needed to drive out the influence over there any and very easily very interesting i've heard this comparison to like what a jerk an answer here the comparison between bosnia intervention in bosnia and intervention here in libya the difference is they can draft is still a very powerful figure he does have resources to hit back and i mean here tack it to west of boston. didn't in that situation there it wasn't going to get more it was going to corrupt the entire region or go much further in this case it's still

there ok maybe we didn't get rid of all of those nasty weapons ok maybe there's a few hanging around still so they become pair of comparison is not very good in that sense how do you feel about that i mean you know this intervention is giving a message that you know he looks to be critical for many people in the region bahrain and example saudi arabia it's like i said earlier it's not it's not the same narrative all the way through. i think there's a real ambiguity here there's not clear lines between good guys and bad guys in our media life portrayed here in the united states like you mentioned earlier at the top of the program the region in which the united states is backing armed forces inside libya is a region that is sent numerous people to fight americans in iraq and afghanistan and there are actually members of the libyan resistance movement that have admitted they have actually been in iraq in afghanistan fighting against the americans and these are the same folks that we're trying to arm with with expensive united states

weapons and and trying to back with airstrikes but you know back to the topic about kind of for a second you we've mentioned that they want to take advantage of chaos i mean all kind isn't a brand crisis right now like there's these democratic uprisings in egypt and other places have really kind of shown how how impotent their. ideology is in speaking for the aspirations of the people across the muslim world and it's a real threat to them when people without weapons stand up and try to take control their own destiny rather than going through al-qaeda is broken ideology but you're right that the overall point that you're making here is that there's some real moral ambiguity here and for the united states to charge in like we're defending quote unquote freedom fighters versus an evil dictator there's no no real indication that that's how it's going to come out the wash. but i'm fine going to you i mean again we just we've got a real quickly before we go to the break here is america helping or hurting its

image with this and in intervention into libya. i think it's doing both actually mad is the irony i do agree with. the assessment that there is moral ambiguity there is no very clear game plan or exit strategy that we can discern on the part of the ground on that point there gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we're going to one short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on a stable. and. wealthy british style it's sometimes. hard to. find out what's really happening to the global economy for our no holds

barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to cause a report. will. bring you the latest in science and technology from the realms. of the future coverage. breaking news this hour on our team reports about an explosion at a metro station in the belorussian capital of minsk there have been some eyewitness reports of casualties at least ten people said to be injured in the explosion happened almost two hours ago now reports say the blast happened on an escalator in the subway emergency services are at the scene we'll bring you the latest on this as we get more details stay with us here on our team for more information second part of our cross talk program coming your way next.

welcome back to rostock i'm peter lavelle remind you we're talking about al qaeda in the arab world. lead. to. slim. but first let's see what russians think about this organization and. with democracy in the air many in the arab world now have hope and expectations of change to the people's pope or appears to have marginalized radical fundamentalists and other groups though we lived in yemen and this may not be the case and there is growing evidence that al qaeda is on the move in both countries the public opinion foundation asked russians what is the target of al qaeda thirty nine percent of the respondents say it's the entire non muslim world and another

thirty two percent actions targeted only against some particular countries it remains to be seen if civil war and foreign military intervention will play into the hands of al qaeda and other groups peter right and how inane washington can go you know we were talking about this brand issue that kind of has a really big problem as pointed out earlier part of the program but they are resilient and it isn't going to go away i mean expansionary we see events unfolding in yemen which again we'll see a lot of from event people on the ground seeing western parker see there they will go in and take out one person but not another ok but this is where our kind of does have some traction in some sense ok now again rebranding how do they will use what is an effective strategy for them to rebrand if they can embrace democracy but they can still point out the hypocrisy of the west well i think there are a wakening as you call it and. the west police police awakening those police and

some very very serious challenges to tell you that i think ok that would have been afraid that if the west had supported think they touch because the. guy that themes from the very beginning. they were struggling against the west because it was western support that can. states as they call them up were state governments in place that was the whole theory of al qaida that they had to strike against the west in order to weaken western support the police state play games that if the west were forced to we throw in support they would fall with the democrat the sation on the we are seeing. the mark of the ascension process that we have seen in countries like egypt. in tunisia in libya of course in return

in armed conflict you know i will tell you this argument is we can't because if they see these. masses facing again against dictatorship and so far there is no indication that these are islamist revolutions they're not going to think revolutions as far as we can see them there are human use a spy work if they see the west soup or think the democrat the sation process it makes it very hard for them to blame the west for the ills of the arab world the muslim world i should say so it is somebody difficult problem for them and i don't see. very good opening for. itself in the way that would be convincing to the muslim population of the middle east when you dare to find go back to i mean that's a very interesting point here but i suppose maybe we're all getting ahead of ourselves too because we have to see where this democratic process is going to go in the region it's still very very early days i mean anyone that's going to save

democracy has failed in the in the in the or in north africa is it is just really it's a street premature we haven't seen where it's going to go to the events in tunisia are still being played out in egypt and unfortunately in the middle is this awful civil war being played out in libya a much it can it you think can induce these events in libya depending on how long it can take will slow down the democratic process because you know even the countries on both sides living in tunisia to start getting worried if this is going to grow and we see al qaeda using potentially using libya's a base because of the chaos that's going to worry a lot of people and it's going to be hard liners and the people the security hardliners are going to feel involved in again. well i think there are a couple of points let's make that first is that to the earlier point you were asking the previous guest about what's the opportunity for al qaeda here what the worst thing that could happen is that in the united states conduct of the war we screw up and there are a lot of civilian casualties right like that how we conduct our support of these

rebels if it goes badly that's probably our best opportunity in the region and that's unfortunate and related to that is how the rebels conduct themselves and how the revolutionaries conduct themselves if they retake power or in the areas where they have power if if we're seen to be backing a regime that's going on a spree of revenge killings or unjust imprisonment and there's been some indications of that with that with the revolutionaries then that really hurts us in those areas and we're seen as propping up a corrupt regime the same way we're seen as propping up a corrupt regime in afghanistan now as far as the instability goes you know one of the excuses the united states used to get into this situation was that if we left if we let this situation get out of control then the instability there would affect what's going on in egypt and around the region but what i think that analysis fails to take into account is that what's going on in libya is in a large part a result of the instability around it with the democratic uprisings in the

countries nearby and you had that enthusiasm reach the libyan street and they decided in some areas that it was their turn for an uprising and in some cases it's gone much worse than it has in the places in egypt and in the region but you know to the larger point you brought up about western hypocrisy the other opportunity for what's going on in bahrain quite frankly i mean there's a there's a very serious crackdown on people who want reform that's been tacitly supported by the united states by a lack of condemnation there so i mean there are a lot of traps here for the united states if we're not careful to get boxed into a situation where we actually empower al qaeda as. ology message when i go to the united states empowering al qaeda by action and through the law of unintended consequences why exactly it's intervention there because a lot of people would say it least in the in the inside the beltway they'll say look this is our opportunity really gain momentum in the north africa because well

the americans in the western capitals have been pretty red faced all their buddies are leaving power one way or another and they probably will continue to with this demonstration effect but the united states jumps in there and being humanitarian and is derek pointed out and these types of situations you inevitably kill civilians americans are very good at killing civilians in afghanistan and on the pakistani border ok there's no reason we believe it's not going to happen continue to happen in libya. well i think inevitably it happens all the time in war and it does create a very real question about the motives for the intervention i mean just yesterday we heard the american secretary of state state that the only way the bombing is going to stop is for the khadafi forces to pull back and ultimately to relinquish power and ultimately for me to go into exile and that's not humanitarian intervention that's regime change the other question that really is very pressing is what is the real character of the so-called revolution going on right now is

that a real democratic revolution or is it simply hatred of gadhafi being replaced by possibly something that is non-democratic and not necessarily friendly to the west so i think that the nature of military intervention and a complex situation is such that we really don't know how it's going to turn out and how it's going to play out so i would say that the best strategy is to do what's necessary to protect life but to let the political dynamics of the situation sort themselves out and to be ready to support civil society in its reconstruction mind you but the real growth of extremism happens primarily because people have no real options in terms of food clothing and shelter in a society that is highly stratified and that has a high concentration of wealth in the hands of very few people i understand that that is very much the situation in libya so the question becomes can we can the world in the muslim world in the muslim american world support

a transition that is really democratic and support those elements in civil society in libya that want to see reconstruction without an ongoing armed conflict i think that is the question and that's what's in front of us and he'll go to you in washington it's interesting i mean we all agree here that democracy is not the favorite card al qaeda likes to play it's rejects democracy but it's character not a is that you know if this goes on. for a long enough bill you know you could have a stream is group saying look like democracy does these people want democracy it carries up countries or creates civil wars and you still have western intervention the west is still calling the shots here so is it really just a matter of time intensity before this would go either way before people say look it embracing this always democratic ideas it's the west trying to manipulate what's who's going to be in power and if this goes on longer and longer you know we're supporting people we really don't know very well. you know the it's very

interesting that you know there is a great deal of criticism of the west in the in the arab world in the arab media for its intervention and i have never i have not heard that argument made in the context of the democratic revolution on the going on in the in north africa and other parts of the arab world to learn that it's not what people are saying that people in the arab countries want democracy i mean that's that's that's a sense that you get from looking at the egyptian media for example no one is like you see in the west of manipulating the market or see to establish some sort of control over the arab world i think the danger is the opposite that then you are is that if they're mocking at the station feels they are girls will go back to the pipe off the market the jeans that it has had for the last fifty years and missing fact there on the percent that they've represented if this or this against

the fighters their own police plans leave to the needs of the population that has generated the valley police and the extremists on the produce i'll tell you that so if you look at the long term picture and not just what's happening today in leave yemen or other places you see that there is if the sources of the coalition are less eliminated the arab world needs to go through the same type of the market i think evolution that lot in the middle east asia and eastern europe have gone through very dearly to give your house what you want to do what you are not in your head. yeah i want to be clear that i don't think the united states' support of democratization is at all of threat to the united states or in danger is our image around the world but i think is the danger is the support of the united states militarily for for. actions that we're not sure about yet i think if you dare say what i've done we're going to have to give you more time but it is

a very interesting point many thanks my guest today in washington and austin and thanks to our viewers for watching us here arche see you next time and remember cross talk rules.