today violence is once again flared up. and these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada. hope for a shelter on the day. the boy. is i. mean this is on the cheap from the rest of the recent fast on these metro they killed twelve and injured nearly two hundred president because i said that they will see mr winter nights and see wild eyed terror and elements and recent deeds. on the u.s. prepares to spend around seven hundred billion dollars on its military machine and see a more than any other country on the ball with budget cuts upward in defense and social

programs to face in the child. the fault is growing economies on earth come together to have their second the most pivotal of global issues the heads of russia brazil india china for crowd gathering children safe water out of the race a sizeable wall to train. on up next what about those girls with his yes if the brics countries can become the main force in the world economy in the near future is next. can stand.

alone and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle the building breaks of the future some of the world's fastest growing emerging markets are meeting in china and they're called the brics brazil russia china india and south africa their plan is simple be an alternative to a western centric world is this an incredible reality or just wishful thinking. you can. still see. just as the role of the brics in the world today i'm joined by but escobar and some paulo he's a journalist and author of obama does globalist on in brussels we have frederick erickson he is a director and co-founder of the european center for international political economy and in denver he crossed to i don't kind he is a professor of economics at the university of denver gentlemen this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want to go to you poppy first because you

get on the program before ten years ago we came across this term goldman sachs came up with that brics and it was a well let's put what it was was a sexy tool to sell the emerging markets stocks well ten years later it has taken on a life of its own and in researching this program it's either lionized or demonized i know where you stand where said we should be lionized should be demonized. it should be lionized in fact there are a lot of non bricks there should be part of bricks should be brick something for something like thirty should be indonesia should be in south korea should be n. word instead the bric countries that have south africa to have a continental appeal so all the developing emerging areas are having any i mean let me jump in why should why should they be in there because of the level of their level of economy because there are certain political orientation or both

political orientation so instead of having another asian like indonesia or south korea or third from the middle east the effect they discussed in brazil last year it was supposed to be bricked. turkey but instead at a last minute said no we need this somebody from africa and obviously they can have nigeria they can have libya for obvious reasons and so they chose south africa which is the most powerful african economy so it's a continental wide in the global appeal but the most important thing in my view is what what should the greeks do so they are very influential inside the g twenty so major economic decisions have to be supported by brics inside the g twenty and it just seven as we all know is history so people could see that in fact we are living in a g.'s zero because nobody is in charge of anything and i partially subscribe to this view as well and there's also the political component very important voting of you

when the resolution one nine seventy three. do for me ger bricks they abstained they coordinated this. journey back south africa did with both already there is a ford yes but south africa i'm going to frederick here frederick is the is the brics country more of a still just kind of a sexy selling tool i mean what kind of political influence does it have in these certainly are emerging markets and i don't think anyone doubts that but is it anything more than that. well i mean first of all i think i mean i belong to the group of people who think it's premature to speak about brics as something group of countries with a lot of things in common and that is you having big aspirations for global influence in the world so far it's only it's only one country in that group which is china who actually has some real influence today all the other countries there

so far in global economy terms in trade terms or in your leadership terms they are still still playing paying off in the top league so far so i think it's more of an aspiration but it isn't actually accurate description of what we've seen today but look i mean it's absolutely true that many of these countries are going to become much more influential in the world in twenty thirty years from now simply because they're going to grow their economies are going to grow and that also means they're going to have more influence in the world ok why don't i go to you in denver i mean let's go back to the political dimension here and what i said in the beginning of the program can this block of countries the brics as they in is are can be pointed out maybe they'll be more countries be an alternative to the west because that's what they're touted for in the minds of so many people not just because their emerging markets are so my countries growing out there the west is not growing particularly fast what about the political mission of brics as it expands.

yes indeed. i don't think that they should be lionized or demonized i think they should be analyzed both economically and politically according to the models that i have run by two thousand and thirty actually the brics group plus probably a few others like indonesia xico even nigeria could actually be that driving force of the world economy but more importantly politically i think we have not seen anything like this since i would say bundu in the one nine hundred fifty s. when some countries tried to take a nonaligned an independent course and as i have expressed myself in several places this could actually be a harbinger of a much less hypocritical much more just and much more stable world when you think about it it's growth is a very strong word less hypocritical in the western centric world that we live in

today. i really like what hi there said because this could be viewed as a new burn doom the been doing at the time and you know it came out a nothing new for the counter-revolution against but don't buy special european elites was really hardcore in american leads as well including the vietnam war so at the nonaligned movement which is more than one hundred countries they look up to bricks some sort of guiding like models like many see china as a model effect inside bric brazil nowadays under a duma she's in beijing right now trying to clean chill out of the deals she's looking at the state model of china to try to reorganize brazil's industrial policy which at the moment is neil there's no industrial policy in this country brazil is becoming like an exporter of raw materials and they need state presents they need some guidance the way you have you find in chinese model so you

can export when you factor protestant and compete with other countries like for instance embraer now they have a factory in china they are selling more is that if jets to china this is the way to go otherwise brazil will be selling soya beans in orange juice to kingdom come and the nonaligned countries they look at their in south america they look at brazil as a model in asia they look at china as a model russia it's not much of a model to anybody unfortunate well you know michael has a model that would sell very very articulate very well in many claudel at the same time fredricka if i go to you fredricka here i mean already i let me add something here and i had go ahead jump in. ok let me add something here about brazil and india i think clearly china is economically the powerhouse but the studies that i have done on india and brazil as well as in china in the you know they should

insist and actually indicate to me that. if they do not make too many policy mistakes both brazil and china and perhaps even russia within fifteen year sexually can have a very diversified and flourishing economy and add to that the democratic strains of brazil and india and china indeed can learn something from these two countries as well ok frederick vine go to you i mean one of the things it's obvious to everyone is that economic power is translated into political power and a lot of these countries the emerging markets they see that we use institutions are run by western countries the world bank the i.m.f. well some people even go as far as say that nato is being used as a replacement for the security council of the united nations being the world's policeman when it gets down to its institutions in a brick bricks is very young but do you think it could turn into some kind of political institution as an alternative because as the richer they get the more resources they will have. no i don't think so i think i mean i think one of the

thing which is going to characterize the rise of of emerging markets is that they're going to can't compete with each other about economics and about politics so see increasing increasing increasing tensions between those countries themselves and some of them are certainly going to make a lot of efforts in order to united states or europe in order to be on this side whether it's you know concerns trade issues or wages concerns arms deals or what have you so i think i think i mean look i mean i i i want to bring countries to succeed i want them to have extremely rapid economic growth in the next ten twenty thirty forty years because that's going to be very very good for the population of those countries but i don't think it will happen so i think we are talking about an aspiration here which is which is a little bit speculative but it certainly is yet to come and the only thing we can john of far is basically that that in all matters at least in economics today what

countries like india and brazil are afraid o. is competition from china it's competition from china that's what they are afraid of and as long as the mindset of of of of brazil russia india and others are going to be of that kind it's going to be tremendously difficult to forge any sort of strong alliances. nato or the west that is in line since the lies that we saw grew during the cold war ok ted what do you think about that because the west can still get divide and conquer these bricks this brick organization mindset and they're still competing among themselves it's a good point yes it's true that competition among themselves absolutely true like the brazilian booster elise there are three hundred nine following deal most of this week the air try to create some sort of cash some deals good to sell brazilian products in china but china basically in a factor of the world they don't need. so by manufacturer bribes from anybody apart

from that technology which is the case of embraer like executive jets what and russia basically it's still monoculture its oil and gas and weapons industry as well so the diversification of the brazilian the indian economy is going to take i would say at least another two generations but the most important thing in my view is the political power in the long run of bricks or brick or the large bricks. first of all trying to get rid of that absolutely stupid mechanism which is nato which has now become the you know the weaponized arm of the united nations and who wants to rule the world as the best chinese scholars writing and saying it openly i talked to one of them last week and this is how they see it they see the pentagon that is just i mean this point i want you to finish it i want you to finish it off record i don't think you know we were we come back from the break i

want you to finish your point after the break we'll continue our discussion on the challenges to the west state with our. wealthy british style. market finance scandals find out what's really happening to the global economy with mike's concert for

a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune into cars a report on our feet. we'll. bring you the latest in science and technology from the realm for should. we dump the future of coverage. welcome back across talk i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the position of the bric countries on the global stage. you can. ok find it i'd like to go to you in brussels but i was talking about something that i think was very interesting before we went to the break and as it had these countries get richer and richer and their political clout may or may not depending

on how collectively they work together become more powerful but we have these institutions that are in place today if it was talking about nato also we have the united nations security council mean you're going to have to have institutional evolution to accommodate these growing populations and richer populations we cannot continue with another nine hundred forty five political order and i'm looking at the united nations security council how do you think that's going to happen as the west receives in power and wealth and the rest of the world comes up for good other parts of the world what's the institutional change that has to occur. well i mean that's a very good question i'm afraid i don't have a good answer for you i mean i think the solutions will look different between the international institutions that exist if you look and if you start with a broken woods institutions the i.m.f. and the world bank i think there is already now a very good case to make for increasing increasing the in phones of the merging

markets and that would launch to come at the expense of the influence of the smaller european economies have been organizations today and i think that's something which should be pushed much more rapidly than it has been so far especially as far as china is concerned because china is the economy which has the liquidity and the capital in order to be part of big time leadership for the world economy india russia and brazil certainly doesn't have that at least not yet but china china are so china needs to have a much more say in the design of policy from these institutions if you go to to the g twenty for instance which has become the new sort of community to run the world in economic affairs i think it's something which is going to diminish in import in importance simply because it was it was an institution that function well at the height of the crisis when governments needed to come together in order to avoid a repetition of tit for tat type of protectionism allow the 1930's and the great

depression and it served that purpose quite well but now that we are starting to deal with other times of the issues like for instance the global financial regulations we can clearly see that interest between countries here are fundamentally different and of course also the the you know this size of this size of the economies in the size of of of in this case the financial services sector is also differ so much between these countries that it's impossible to get through there so that's certainly something they may need to be talking about in a in china this week i don't find out to you if they ask maybe my first the same question in a different way is should break countries are they aiming to reinvent the world order or just be grown up enough to sit at the adult table that the west established over the past half century. ok i think there are several aspects year one is economically the greeks are

already there at the table and. recent moves by brazil by china by russia to actually fund the i.m.f. and to. push for special drawing rights gradually replacing dollar i think are very significant moves we also are seeing the emergence of what i call regional financial architectures and the scandal filled with with the i don't think i agree with fred that there would be a kind of permanent clash of interests economically or politically among these countries plus when pricks get augmented by what can be called cement as well other emerging countries i think the essence of the matter is that there are really no permanent competition or permanent cooperation in the world we have to go issue by issue by issue we already are seeing cooperation in finance we're seeing

cooperation in high technology we're seeing cooperation in terms of specific sectors. and materials politically i think this conference that is going to take place in a few days in china is very very significant not only because south africa has been brought in and africa now has a representation as well but more importantly there will be a kind of. political class i institutionalization now. aside from greeks we also have bilateral and trilateral discussions between russia and china between india brazil and south africa etc so what we are experiencing i think now is actually not growing up. getting a seat at the table that somebody else a set but actually thinking about the size and shape and the kind of people that we

need ok petty if i can go to you i mean one thing that could really mix of all the works in is the bric countries expand their influence and maybe having a more common common agenda is getting rid of the dollar i mean if you if you got them all together and started working on it that would be a pretty amazing event in may and maybe that's what the one major event the world needs to really shake it out. exactly this this is this is what the chinese and the brazilian specially have been talking bilaterally i would say for at least two years now reform of the international finance system and adopting a basket of currencies which would probably include the dollar the euro the convertible you won the reaal which are at the moment is. value in relation to the dollar was to twenty four five years ago now it's one fifty seven yesterday so this is possible but this reform of the international system which

evolves more see at the i.m.f. and world bank for emerging markets especially the brics has to be followed by a political reform at the u.n. security council this is much more complicated because the european elites specially and washington they just don't want more seats at the table for emerging markets like obama more or less promised india a seat at the security council he was in brazil three weeks ago and he skirted the issue completely and obviously the brazilians are in fact this i think is one of the major mistakes of brazilian foreign policy that they are putting all their chips in this we want to be recognized with a seat at the security council this is very important it has to be a group of countries has to be germany india brazil indonesia turkey thought the reform of the u.n. structure which is totally dependent from the u.s. at the moment any having for instance militaristic asuka's ian david cameron which practically launched a war based on a resolution they draft inside the un security council ok fredricka and i can go to

you as i want to hypothesize let's say it's two thousand and fifty has the west become more like the bric countries or is the bric countries become more like the west where you things going to change. well i i i think i mean i don't think it's that simple. but i mean if i had to choose between one of your teletypes it would certainly be adopted bric countries would have become more like the west both in terms of you know new type of political institutions in countries like china and russia where you know democracy is fragile or where democracy is nonexistent in a capacity a country like china you know civil liberties would i'm sure is going to be stronger than they are today so i think they are moving along a trajectory of of political more than a station there which is going to make them closer to western political institutions. i think i mean it would be i mean to to come back to one of the issues that we've been been talking about here i mean my point is basically it is

that we have lots of countries in the world right now which can be described as middle kingdoms and certainly india brazil and russia are belong to that particular group these are countries with aspirations in countries which have you know which have grown in stature and influence in the past in the past decade but they are far from countries that actually can lead and actually can achieve something by leadership on the global scene and one of the one of the most striking things i i think when you look at the ability to lead is to is to you know when you when you look at surveys among population which countries they would like to move to if they had the opportunity to do so take for instance china there was a survey in china of one and a half year ago among what was called the chinese elites where they asked the they were asked the question if you could would you rather move to the united states then to stay in china seventy five percent of the respondents say yes we would

rather move to the united states to remain in china if you look at a lot of people but that's because their standard of living is there because they want their so-called american freedoms or is because they want to live a comfortable life. well i mean i think is it i think it's a combination of things i mean everything from you know you can you can environmentally do a much better life in united states you can do in shanghai but i think it also concerns you know civil liberties political institutions and having this sort of capitalistic bynum isn't there to simply don't have in the trannies economy or going to core and hire an economy i drove i to ask you i mean by the year two thousand and fifty when you figure my my question is the west could be more like the brics today with the brics to be more like the west what do you think ok first of all let us be reminded of what eugene you know score said about prediction that we can only predict things after they have happened but we go on. i

think. one thing that i can pretty some certainty thousand and fifty although i have different scenarios but even in the worst scenario of. greeks will have collectively a higher g.d.p. . then. i can also predict its uncertainty that in terms of education in terms of you know patient systems. infrastructure projects will be certainly farther ahead of the united states if not seeks as a whole. interim solve all the peaks i think we are much harder to predict but i don't jump in here real quick we're almost out of time and why do i want to give people the last word forty seconds go ahead. try to remember bank show ping's master plan in seventy eight he said that by two thousand

and forty there could be political freedom in china can you imagine if that happens that thousand and forty get to two thousand and fifty there asian century already established china as a democratic powerhouse and an economic powerhouse and they're back to where they were for eighteen of the last twenty centuries so my bets are on beijing ok gentlemen thank you very much many thanks to my guest today and from palo brussels and in denver and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember across the.

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