which brightened if you move from france to pressure. for instance on t.v. dot com. this is r.t. from moscow our headline russia's leading men don't rule out taking part of the next presidential elections promise of a team of putin says he could run for the top job together separately twenty twelve he said everything depends on the economic social and political issues facing the country. to close the suspects linked to the terrorist attack on the capital's metro system have confessed twelve people were killed in the blast and then two

hundred bridges today's been declared an official day of mourning. the global power structure could be shifting with political experts warning that europe and the u.s. should watch their backs as the world's fastest growing economies kate ground heads of russia brazil india china and south africa are gathering to discuss new international financial model on the libyan crisis i did more on the top story now people are values gas discussed whether brics countries will become the main force in the world economy in the near future next. can't. stand.

alone and welcome to cross talk i'm people of all the building breaks of the future some of the world's fastest growing emerging markets are meeting in china and they're called the brics brazil russia china india and south africa their plan is simple be an alternative to a western centric world is this an incredible reality or just wishful thinking. can. start. just as the role of the brits in the world today i'm joined by the escobar and some paulo he's a journalist and author of obama does globalist on in brussels we have frederick erickson he is a director and a co-founder of the european center for international political economy and in denver we cross the kind he is a professor of economics at the university of denver gentlemen this is crosstalk

that means you can jump in anytime you want to go do you have a first because you've been on the program before ten years ago we came across this term so goldman sachs came up with it bricks and it was a well let's put what it was was a sexy tool to sell the emerging markets stocks well ten years later has taken on a life of its own and in researching this program it's either lionized or demonized i know where you stand where should we should it be lionized or should it be demonized. it should be lionized in fact there are a lot of non bricks there should be part of bricks should be brick something for something like turkey should be in indonesia should be in south korea should be a word instead the bric countries they say that have south africa to have a continental appeal saw all the developing emerging areas i mean let me let me let me jump in here with why should why should they be in there because of the level of the their level of economy or because of certain political orientation

or both political orientation so instead of having another asian like indonesia or south korea or turkey from the middle east the effect they discussed in brazil last year it was supposed to be bricked. with turkey instead at the last minute said no we need this somebody from africa and obviously they can have nigeria they can have libya for abuse reasons so they chose south africa which is the most powerful african economy so it's a continental wide will appeal but the most important thing in my view is what what what should the greeks do so they are very influential inside the g. twenty so major economic decisions have to be supported by brics inside the g twenty the g seven as we all know is history some people could see that in fact we are living in a g.'s zero because nobody is in charge of anything and i partially subscribe to

this view as well and there's also the political component very important voting of un resolution one nine seventy three. the four major brits they abstained they coordinated this ok germany with south africa did with both already there is a forty year split south and i'm going to frederick here frederick is the is the brics country more of a still just kind of a sexy selling tool i mean what kind of political influence does it have it certainly are emerging markets now i think anyone doubts that but is it anything more than that. well i mean first of all i think i mean i belong to the group of people who think that it's premature to speak about brics as something you know a group of countries with a lot of things in common and that is you having big aspirations for global influence in the world so far it's only it's only one country in that group which

is china who actually has some real influence today all the other countries there so far in the global economy terms in trade terms or in your leadership terms they are still still playing paying off in the top league so far so i think it's more of an aspiration that it is an accurate description of what we're seeing today but look i mean it's absolutely true that many of these countries are going to become much more influential in the world in twenty thirty years from now simply because they're going to grow their economies are going to grow and and that also means they going to have more influence in the world ok i know if i go to you and get over i mean let's go back to the political dimension here and what i said in the beginning of the program in this block of countries to brics as they in is a pretty pointed out maybe it'll be more countries be an alternative to the west because that's what they're touted for in the minds of so many people not just because their emerging markets is a lot of countries growing out there the west is not growing particularly fast what about the political mission of brics as it expands.

yes indeed. i don't think that they should be lionized or demonized i think they should be analyzed both economically and politically according to the models that i have run by two thousand and thirty actually the brics group plus probably a few others like indonesia. even nigeria could actually be that driving force of the world economy but more importantly politically i think we have not seen anything like these since i would say bundu in the one nine hundred fifty s. when some countries try to take a nonaligned an independent course and as i have expressed myself in several places this could actually hear harbinger of a much less hypocritical much more just and much more stable world what do you think about its virtues are very strong words less hypocritical in the western

centric world that we live in today. i really like what hi there said because this could be viewed as a new born doom the been doing at the time you know it came out and nothing new for the counter-revolution against but don't buy special european elites was really hardcore in american elites as well including the vietnam war so the nonaligned movement which is more than one hundred countries they look up to bricks some sort of guiding like models like many see china as a model effect inside bric brazil nowadays under a duma she's in beijing right now trying to clinch a lot of deals she's looking at the speed model of china to try to reorganize brazil's industrial policy which at the moment is neil there's no industrial policy in this country brazil is becoming like an exporter of raw materials and they need state presents they need some guidance the way you have you

find in chinese model so you can export manufactured products and and compete with other countries like for instance embraer now they have a factory in china they're selling more executive jets to china this is the way to go on the wires brazil be selling soya beans in orange juice to kingdom come and the new one allied countries they look at the south america they look at brazil as a model in asia they look at china as a model russia it's not much of a model to anybody unfortunate well you might as a model you would sell very very articulate very well i know nick model at the same time fredricka if i go to you fredricka i mean it will be a let me add something here go ahead go ahead jump in. ok let me add something here about brazil and india i think clearly china is economically the powerhouse but

the studies that i have done on india and brazil as well as in china in the you know patient system actually indicate to me that. if we can win the policy mistakes both brazil and china and perhaps even russia within fifteen year sexually can have a very diversified and flourishing economy and add to that the democratic strengths of brazil and india and china indeed can learn something from these two countries as well ok fredricka fine go to you i mean one of the things it's obvious to everyone is that economic power is translated into political power and a lot of these countries the emerging markets they seeded with these institutions are run by western countries the world bank the i.m.f. some people even go as far as say that nato is being used as a replacement for the security council the united nations being the world's policeman when he gets down to his institutions in a brick bricks is very young do you think it could turn into some kind of political institution as an alternative because as the richer they get the more resources

they will hound. no i don't think so but i think i mean i think one of the thing which is going to characterize the rise of of emerging markets is that we're going to compete with each other about economics and about politics see increasing increase in increasing tensions between those countries themselves and some of them are certainly going to make a lot of efforts in order to vo united states or or europe in order to be on this side whether it's you know concerns trade issues or were those concerns arms deals or what have you so i think i think i mean look i mean i i i want to bring countries to succeed i want them to have extremely rapid economic growth in the next ten twenty thirty forty years because that's going to be very very good for the population of those countries but i don't think it will happen so i think we are talking about an aspiration here which is which is a little bit speculative and it certainly is yet to come and the only thing we can

go far is basically that that in all matters at least in economics today what countries like india and brazil are afraid o. is competition from china it's competition from china that's what they are afraid of and as long as the mindset of of brazil russia india and others are going to be of that kind it's going to be tremendously difficult to forge any sort of strong alliances. nato or the western eyes since the lies that was or grew during the cold war don't care what you think about them because the west can still get divide and conquer these greeks newsbreak organisation in mindset and they're still competing among themselves it's a good point yes it is through the competition among themselves absolutely through like the brazilian distro lists there are three hundred nine following dillman through this week they are trying to clear some side of some deals to sell

brazilian products in china but china basically the factor of the world they don't need. by manufacture products from anybody apart from ultra high tech technology which is the case of embraer like as i conceive jets but and russia basically it's still monoculture it's oil and gas and weapons industry as well so the diversification of the brazilian the indian economy is going to take i would say at least another two generations but the most important thing in my view is the political power in the long run of bricks or brick or the large bricks. first of all trying to get rid of that absolutely stupid mechanism which is nato which has now become the you know the weaponized arm of the united nations and who wants to rule the world as the best chinese scholars at writing and saying it openly i talked to one of them last week and this is how they see it they see the.

point i want you to finish it i want you to feed africa i want then take you know we literally come back from the break i want you to finish your point after the break we'll continue our discussion on the challenges to the west state with our. they come in dozens. still wants to play with. others wants to take spirits. but she is the diva of the rivers. there.

is no in her best move. believe. chasing adrenaline from the party. wealthy british silence on. the. markets why not come to. find out what's really happening to the global economy in the kinds of reports on marquis. cooper new the latest in science and technology from around russia. we've got the future of coverage. if you can. still. think.

welcome back to cross talk i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the position of the bric countries on the global stage. ok if i did i'd like to go to you in brussels that i was talking about something that i think was very interesting before we went to the break and as it had these countries get richer and richer their political clout may or may not depending on how collectively they work together become more powerful but we have these institutions that are in place today that he was talking about nato also we have the united nations security council mean you're going to have to have institutional evolution to accommodate these growing populations and richer populations we cannot continue with the nine thousand nine hundred forty five political order and i'm looking at the united nations security council how do you think that's going to

happen is the west recedes in power and wealth and the rest of the world comes up or a good other part of the world what's the institutional change that has to occur. well i mean that's a very good question i'm afraid i don't have a good answer for you i mean i think the solutions will look different between the international institutions that exist if you look out if you start with the bretton woods institutions the i.m.f. and the world bank i think there is already now a very good case to make for increasing increasing the influence of the emerging markets and that would launch the comma the expense of the influence that smaller european economies have been in those organizations today and i think that's something which should be pushed much more rapidly than it has been so far especially as as far as china is concerned because china is the economy which has the liquidity and the capital in order to be part of big time leadership for the world economy india russia and brazil certainly doesn't have power at least not yet

but china china has so china needs to have a much more say in the design of policy from these institutions if you go to the g twenty for instance which has become the new sort of committed to run the world in economic affairs i think it's something which is going to diminish in importance simply because it was it was an institution that function well at the height of the crisis when governments needed to come together in order to avoid a repetition of tit for tat type of protectionism a lot of the one nine hundred thirty s. and the great depression and it served that purpose quite well but now that we are starting to deal with other times when the issues like for instance global financial regulations we can clearly see that the interest between countries here are fundamentally different and of course also the the you know this size of this size of the economies in the size of of of in this case the financial services sector is also differ so much between these countries that it's impossible to get

through and where there is not a desert only something they may be talking about in a in china this week if i go to you if they ask maybe my first the same question in a different way is should a break countries are they mean to reinvent the world order or just be grown up enough to sit it be adult table that the west established over the past half century. ok i think there are several aspects here one is economically breeks are already here at the table and. recent moves by brazil by china by russia to actually fund but i.m.f. and to. push for our special drawing rights gradually replacing dollar i think are very significant moves we also are seeing the emergence of what i call regional financial architecture and these kind of with with the brakes i don't think i agree

with fred that there would be a kind of permanent clash of interests economically or politically among these countries plus when brics scared are mentored by what can be called cement as well other emerging countries i think the essence of the matter is that there are really no permanent competition or permanent cooperation in the world we have to go issue by issue by issue we already are seeing cooperation in finance we're seeing cooperation in high technology we're seeing cooperation in terms of specific separatists. and materials and literally i think this conference that is going to take place in a few days in china is very very significant not only because south africa has been brought in and africa now has a representation as well but more importantly there will be

a kind of. political was i institutionalization now. aside from greeks we also have bilateral and trilateral discussions between russia and china between india and brazil and south africa etc so what we are experiencing i think now is actually not to growing up. getting a seat at the table that somebody else are set but actually thinking about the size and shape and the kind of table that we need ok pepe if i can go to you i mean one thing that could really mix of power works in is the bric countries expand their influence and maybe having a more common company genndy is getting rid of the dollar i mean if you if you got them all together and started working on it that would be a pretty amazing event in may and maybe that's what the one major event the world needs to really shake it out. exactly this this is this is what the chinese and the brazilian specially have been talking bilaterally i would say for

at least two years now reform of the international finance system and adopting a basket of currencies which would probably include the dollar the euro the convertible you one the re are which at the moment is. valued relation to the dollar was to twenty four or five years ago now it's one fifty seven yesterday so this is possible but this reform of the international system which evolves more see at the i.m.f. and world bank for emerging markets especially the brics has to be followed by a political reform at the u.n. security council this is much more complicated because european elites specially and washington they just don't want more seats at the table for emerging markets like obama more or less promised india a seat at the security council he was in brazil three weeks ago and he skirted the issue completely and obviously the brazilians are in fact is i think is one of the

major mistakes of brazilian foreign policy that we are putting all their chips in this we want to be recognized with a seat at the security council this is very important it has to be a group of countries it has to be germany india brazil indonesia turkey top a reform of the u.n. structure which is totally independent from the u.s. at the moment any having for instance militaristic david cameron which practically launched a war based on a resolution they draft inside the u.n. security council ok fredricka not to go to use i want to hypothesize let's say it's two thousand and fifty has the west become more like the bric countries or as the bric countries become more like the west do you think's going to change. well i i i mean i don't think it's that simple. but i mean if i had to choose between one of your teletypes it would certainly be that the bric countries would have become more like the west both in terms of new type of political institutions in countries like

china and russia where you know democracy is fragile or where democracy is nonexistent in a class in a country like china you know civil liberties would i'm sure is going to be stronger than they are today so i think they are moving along a trajectory of of political modernization there which is going to make them closer to western type of political institutions. i think i mean it would mean to come back to one of the issues that we've been talking about here i mean my point is basically is that we have lots of countries in the world right now which can be described as middle kingdoms and certainly india brazil and russia are belong to that particular group these are countries with aspirations and countries which have you know which have grown in stature and influence in the past in the past decade but they are far from countries that actually can lead and actually can achieve something by leadership on the global scene and one of the one of the most striking

things i i think when you look at the ability to lead is to is to you know when you when you look at surveys i'm on population. countries and they would like to move to if they have the opportunity to do so take for instance china there was a survey in china of one and a half year ago among what was called the chinese elites where they asked what they were asked the question if you could would you rather move to the united states then to stay in china seventy five percent of the respondents say yes we would rather move to the united states to remain in china if you polled look at a lot of people that's because their standard of living is there because they wanted so-called american freedoms or is because they want to live a comfortable life. well i mean i think is it i think it's a combination of things i mean everything from you know you can you can environmentally do much better live in the united states you can do in beijing or shanghai but i think it also concerns you know civil liberties political institutions and having this sort of capitalistic enemy isn't that just simply

don't have the trainees economy or in writing and acquire a minor in economy if i like to ask you i mean by the year two thousand and fifty when you think of my my question is the west going to be more like the brics today with the brics to be more like the west where you think ok first of all let us be reminded of eugene you know score said about prediction that we can only pretty things after they have happened but we go on. i think. one thing that i can predict out with some certainty in two thousand and fifty although i have different scenarios but even in the worst scenario. the brics will have collectively a higher g.d.p. . the g c i can also pretty certain that in terms of education. you know patients systems in terms

of infrastructure projects will be certainly farther ahead of the united states if not. as a whole. interim so far politics i think they are much harder to pretty. hider and i jump in here real quick we're almost your time and why do i want to give you the last word forty seconds go ahead. try to remember then show playings masterplan in seventy eight he said that by two thousand and fourteen there could be political freedom in china can you imagine if that happens two thousand and four and you get to two thousand and fifty we the asian century already established china as a democratic powerhouse and an economic powerhouse and they're back to where they were for eighteen of the last twenty centuries so my bets are on the aging ok gentlemen thank you very much many thanks to my guest i mean from palo brussels and

in denver and thanks to our viewers for watching us you know arky see you next time and remember across the great. weekend.