for the. we've got. the biggest issues get a human voice ceased to face with the news makers. three thirty pm in moscow these are your r.t. headlines syrian protesters plan a day of rage after the violent government crackdowns while the u.s. calls for sanctions on the country there's speculation that arab uprisings could reach iran which might spell trouble for washington's main middle east ally israel . the world's biggest oil producer finds itself running short russia is capping petrol exports as fuel shortages hit consumers at home fuel prices jumped twenty five percent overnight and several of the country's regions. at

a russian pilot faces a life in a u.s. jail after a new york jury finds him guilty of a drug smuggling conspiracy konstantin jarosz uncle when says he's innocent is the lawyers say the trial was riddled with errors. up next peter lavelle and cross ta guests look at whether there may be an undercover hand at work among the arab revolutionaries stay with us crosstalk coming your way. we'll. review the latest in science and technology from the realms. of the future coverage. came.

along in welcome to cross talk and peter lavelle as the arab spring interested six months it appears to have run into some serious headwinds to some arab desperadoes have a learning curve and are the democratic rights of some people limited by the west geopolitical interests. to. discuss what may be called a counter revolution in the arab world i'm joined by nineteen she hardy in london he's an associate fellow in house also in london we have gilbert ashqar he is a writer and professor at the university of london and in washington we go to lawrence korb he's a senior fellow at the center for american progress all right gentlemen this is crosstab it means you can jump in anytime you want first i'd like to go to goldberg in london are we seeing different paradigms being developed in the arab spring moves forward the arab awakening as some people call it we have the twenty's or

maybe the egypt model where we have some think maybe approaching a revolution a real revolution a change in the guard there and then maybe the bahrain model backed up by the saudi arabia they wrote the script there and maybe reluctantly with american supporting two different paradigms we have right now dictators that fall and dictators that are really clamping down well i would call that because you have. very different situations actually thinking. this is. different countries. i mean if you mean countries where. that succeeded the were throwing the. country where the fight is still going. basically only two countries where this has been successful and now if i could stay with you. is because of maybe tunisia and egypt what is the learning curve for.

some of the autocrats in the arab middle east i mean we look at syria we look at yemen and they've what lessons have they learned when they look at the knees when they look at egypt. no but that's the problem here is you have really different situations that is in a country like tunisia for instance. the ruling clique was more like a kind of. you know more imposing its record even on the on the political and economic elite that existed before before ben ali came to power in eighty seven. and also explains the repeal of eason is in which he was ousted from from power and the army just bent on him whereas in in egypt already the situation was different because mubarak is a product of the army and the army is the backbone of power and the army is still in power i mean what you have in egypt is very clearly the army ruling i mean it's

not behind the scenes it's very very officially so. soon countries like libya or syria or the ruling families in the in the gulf countries and you could use the same formula off ruling family to for libya and syria actually. i mean you have. these elites if one could call them like they're the only state. you can hardly hardly see see them leaving the scene you know and then leaving behind something that's not very optimistic about the future is it really is potentially has more violence madam what do you think about that i mean we have assad and people like this have they learned from the. mistakes let's say of their fellow dictators in the region well i agree with what you've said of course but the other side of the scoring is that what's happening in all these countries is one

thing go. caused by the fall of an idea the idea that a family a dictator a. sort of a dynasty can rule a country using security services and the army and basically. raising any political life in the country. that's redundant and that's what's causing all of the to collapse one after one after the other so so what's different is the circumstances but but the phenomena is more or less the same and in fact the formula in which they ruled was the same because they have shown the west. they are irreplaceable they are indispensable that they provide stability that beyond is chaos. it's unimaginable what

would happen beyond and that's what makes. it difficult to imagine life after that and that's why for example. those that are clinging to washington i thought are more in washington and london and paris than in thirty eight self the generations that we have seen regarding russia. and the last three four days. prove this i mean. they showed their support for personally string and power. if you can even from israel ok ok i was going to say larry i mean i mean i really like time that it was a second ago i mean these regimes are indispensable this is the message they're selling and you know in the united states looking at saudi arabia i mean it is it is said it is it's not a video it's not happy with what is happening it's on it's unfortunate what's happening in bahrain but it's not going to do anything more to saudi arabia because

it's afraid of saudi arabia's reaction because the united states just has gotten so used to working with dictators that are due there will. well i think you have a couple issues here and i think i agree that you know these people like mark these who are thora terry and rule is to try and play up what will happen after them we know that in the final conversation between president obama and then president mubarak about whether he should step down he kept repeating the word muslim brotherhood muslim brotherhood muslim brotherhood despite that i think in the next day then obama came out and said no it's time to step aside i think some of the other rulers have learned. i think the president of yemen doesn't want to end up like mubarak being on trial so he cut a deal that says ok i'll leave put you know no prosecution no for me and even in syria they did try it in the emergency emergency law but i think when it comes to

whether x. turtle powers like you know europe the united states should get involved that becomes a different situation it's one thing to talk rhetorically it's another thing to do what we've done for example and live a year and you're quite right in terms of saudi arabia we will try and get the regime to modernize to you know share power we'll try to do the same thing in bahrain you know we're going to fears of those who will lose out because well i will try to you these are going to be a difference between rhetoric and you know the actual law the actual law of policy i mean when you say be ready to use it is a very important thing right now to go ahead you and i jump and go ahead to this cross talk i had written rhetoric i'm following your destruction of these things your. rhetoric is much more powerful. i've sixteen's going through. the rhetoric means the international community does not support these rulers anymore and so these these regimes will then crumble they are very fragile and

people are hesitant to come forward or. abundant share because they think that the united states support for saudis for it's a very good point if i go out of state. to state it is extremely important. to read a really interesting thing. to president obama. or market action going to the street and shooting people themselves in syria when when . they're giving the regime life to kill ok gilbert i want to go to gilbert in london here i think this is you guys are going to where i really want to get in this program i mean there is this obvious double standard here well one second already had one so i think is extremely optimistic first of all of believing that all the regimes will collapse. and secondly there are three korea is

more powerful than weapons and all that well i think. if you had all the rhetorical in libya use in libya the station in libya would have been stabilized under. rule long ago actually. not really extremely optimistic about the scenario in syria. so it's not it's not that easy because precisely as i said there's a basic difference between countries like egypt and tunisia and countries like libya and syria all the ruling families in the gulf. all the state actually if ever you can imagine anything you know stopping them from crushing in the most bloody manner the mass uprising. broad split. this something leading to some forms of civil war as we have seen in libya and

could happen in syria actually if the movement could carry on so i wouldn't be. this is the most extreme this is this is a smokescreen the regime wants you to believe be on the scales if you can if none of us girls know this now it's sectarian civil war. on the road it is not beyond you i want to do i want to go to larry i want to go to larry but i mean if if if if we if we buy that then we get this boiling pot and then we get chaos anyway i mean it's always once it started this process is started you're really not going to be able to turn it off are going to be let's say and syria and iran but to stay you'll see you know why this was one of the only areas first it's going to larry you know larry. ok united states not suicide to go the question is that there's no way that they can do it in and a cost effective manner in terms of intervening because on like egypt the military

and the police support assad and similarly in terms of their rhetoric they would like you know saudis and the far. but how do we know i mean for gosh sakes i mean when we went into libya the reason that that we know that we did it is the arab league asked us to go in so we did not want to have a situation where the united states particularly did those see them as a war hero our way good you should have been the way let me finish ok let me finish i don't interrupt you ok let's look ok well let me finish here let me finish here you know i mean make my point ok well let me finish i don't interrupt through when you're speaking ok i'm saying that the united states does know there's no way in which the west can interfere in syria without making the situation worse on the ground rhetorical they are saying they have condemned what assad is doing but in terms of the ability to do something it's not like libya where you had the rebels have taken control we're able to jump in right here we have to go to

a break after that break we'll continue our discussion on the arab spring stay with our feet. kicking. the moments when the world has changed forever. thousands just to nothing. the sons. to suffer. the first but probably not. as well.

children come and get on in the future wealthy british style. markets. scandal find out what's really happening to the global economy for no holds barred look at the global financial headlines to cause a report on r.t. . kick. start. the. welcome back to crossfire computer lobell remind you we're talking about the revolutions in the arab world. can. ok gilbert i'd like to go back to you in line and i very much appreciate the differentiations

that you showed us in the beginning of the program i think you're spot on there and but at the same time there is a universal value that is. preached by the west particularly the united states is the value of democracy now should not just be a blanket application that everyone should have the right to democratic values and to a civil society where they can participate in that is a single message and is it being applied very specifically in the region right now because i think the people in bahrain feel that way. no of course you're exactly putting your finger were were should be i mean this is sheer hypocrisy that we are we're we are seeing when we deal with the west as you know holder of their use and inspired by such values in its approach to the political situation in the region first of all we shouldn't forget. the west quite

a long time before they they you know. play it as if they were on the side of popular uprisings and democracy for they have been you know maintaining close relations was all sort of despotic regimes in the region for decades and decades and even when the movement started the first reaction of paris for instance was through author ben ali in tunisia technical help for the repression of the rest of the rebellion there and it's only after that when the really the uprising reach very big proportions that they they felt ashamed and embarrassed and the same could go for washington and when you go through to egypt they start to work very long then to almost and and all that and if we go beyond that also we were speaking of interventions in in libya and syria but if people are speaking about all that this is because these are truly jeems which were not completely

friendly to the west even though their fee for the last few years have been a close call a breaker of the west and recently the former head of the cia actually was explaining how good you know a contributor to the cia's and united states so-called war on terror has been so but when you look precisely at the gulf cooperation council countries were in bahrain where saudi troops plus other gulf troops intervened where we didn't hear much protest. or a threats of intervention on the side of the or do if you will and i jump in here and we would let me let me jump in here and not have to do so you really let's. go have a look at mr obama had to say about and this is really about saudi arabia he said my poll numbers go up and down depending on the latest crisis and right now gas prices are weighing heavily on people that's all about saudi arabia what do you

think larry that's all about saudi arabia is that all about us it is going to tell you and i saw it in the united states against an energy policy they're not going to have the freedom that they would like to deal with saudi great look this is not just the middle east look you know what happened to chatham and square back in one nine hundred eighty nine you know thousands of people were killed but yet the world deals with you know with with china look what happened you know look what's happened in russia in terms of things that have happened so the idea that somehow or another the united states with or without its allies is going to make the world democratic you know i'm glad larry larry let me say in a different way than just let me let me say it differently why can't obama just say look folks the this regime in saudi arabia they're not very nice people they live centuries in the past but you know like we just have to deal with these guys they're thugs but it's a price can't why can't you be transparent and i can be a translator saudi ok

a little kid and i am going to shout easily say that you know you're making it you're making it much more coherent than it is i think obama president obama basically does not have a strategy president obama was doing exactly the opposite of what president bush was doing thinking that you know the mirror image of bush would give him book a lot of things so president bush was isolating the dictators refusing to meet with them he was engaging with president bush with talking about democracy and values he went to cairo and apologized for democracy. reassured to dictators that he will not impose any value on them but he understands his he understands their specificities and all that so had he caught on to the motivation budgets in washington and. so president obama was basically engaging with a real moving towards real lives and working with the dictators for stability we believe you are going to stay because it's backfired on him because it was the

wrong timing. that's that's basically what it is it's not or it's not it's lack of vision lack of strategy hesitation he took him two weeks to make up its mind i mean even sorry in one of the you are saying you know go ahead go for just being gilbert jumping a. great yarn you know i'm not jumping in but ok come on to say what to say that bush had to say that. you know bugger all the paper ships in the region well he exerted very much pressure on the bar to do to get you know more or more space in the elections in two thousand and five and all he got any changes. that next year to anyone. yes yes exactly the natural hair sure nobody will also go as illustrations are not unique or is he so old he saw

what happened no no no he continued you know birkenhead but. when it comes to the saudi kingdom you know the bush dynasty had extremely good relations with the dynasty including george w. bush. and that's the key point here this is the most undemocratic state in the region the most logical way to say wait a second can't compare them or syria to saudi arabia in terms of. so you can compare of. course no it's not a democracy doesn't hold back immediately as you hear your celebrity or watch the king of the people here live back on saturday when they tell you whatever it was really come on come on this is this is right i mean either you don't know these countries or i what are you saying the most undemocratic state on earth is the saudi kingdom the best friend of the united states of america but in terms of life

for the people there was not like it was amazing and doris lives where he is in syria. and i have to jump in here i have to jump in here if i want to change had all the oil of the saudi kingdom of course the people who would have a better quality of life in syria i mean this is nothing. you know and the fact actually if you look at the real figures of the saudi kingdom the fact that you have poverty in the saudi kingdom despite there's a huge always wealth a lot of the kind of preaching that you have there all right you know and this is that what i mean but by any standard if you take the women standard which also has been used by western countries and states as a pretext in iraq or afghanistan or anything like that well what about the saudi kingdom which is one of the most appalling situation for women is the most appalling after the taliban have vanished on earth and when you compare iran to the saudi kingdom you're on the then suddenly look as a beacon of democracy ok gentlemen i want to jump in here i want to change gears

here and now do you mind when you go to you what about the question of iran because this is you know everyone be it one of the great cards in washington is to play the iran card ok how threatening it is to the region and everything like that and the saudi family hates around ok now they're playing their cards right now here is is this opening the door to the iranians because it certainly looks like it in many ways i mean could really change the regime around depending on how things the region around putting on how things go ahead. listen any question you are past three months ago is not valid anymore than our region is pinching you have a systemic change when it when the whole system is collapsing and all its components are collapsing so so it's it's no longer the sunnis versus the or iran versus the worst of saudi arabia or or or if it's not a fundamentalist all even i think even the palestine question is going to be seen

in a completely different way than your generation sees these things and. this is there because of their of their parents it's my dad and my grandfather think it's a plenty of it's so twentieth century it's redundant they want to move on so one has to adjust to new ideas the new and it's very difficult it's very difficult to understand what's happening it's very difficult to adjust to it and that's why the policymakers are making so many mistakes and the mistakes are translating themselves into casualties are being rather you bring up again anyway you know you bring up a very good point you didn't use the word i used to be in the program gilbert didn't like our users only used in a different way a new paradigm what is the new paradigm that's coming into play gilbert if i go to you maybe i'll use the word the right way to start. ok though the new part of the. game i mean because you have various situations what you have in common is this

shock wave this uprising this is a people which covered the whole region which was facilitated this time. of course modern means of communication the fact that people can see what is happening almost in real time and that has played a tremendous role in the events and of course this combined with the common language in the arab countries explains how the uprising spread so first of all the arab countries because they had income and so many factors. of you know the worst possible indicators when it comes to development when it comes to unemployment when it comes to inflation when it comes to you know all these considerations i wanted out of there i want to jump in here i want to give i want to see everybody this particular team i want to be fair here when larry i'm going to give you this morning and ask you question is the united states finally on the right side of history and. well i think they're getting closer but you know you

look at each case each case individually and you can't and this idea that you can have a doctor on a one size fits all is simply not true there's a big difference between each of these countries what the people want to wear you know the way the world is treat the people and everything so to say well because it happened in libya happened in syria you know it's not true and then if you take a look at egypt the real question in my mind goes egypt turkey or is it become pakistan because as was pointed out earlier the military is going to have a big role to jump in here ok many thanks to my guests today in london and in washington and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time and remember crosstalk.