three thirty pm in moscow these are your r t have syria gears up for a day of prayers and protest while washington promises to punish the government for human rights abuses fueling fears is planning a repeat of libya. italy and france stupid over an immigration influx sparked by north african interact with some even countries lamping down on free movement. plus enticing the young to the countryside r t suppose a team travels to the world side of a boulder grab

a region where locals are pulling out all the stops to get the new generation out of the city and into the fields. and news just in here on our team or sporting success for russia as it secures the honor of hosting the twenty sixteen ice hockey world championship in ukraine end and mark were in the running but they mysteriously withdrew their bids the russian delegation was confident all along about their chances especially after the national team stunned longtime rival canada with a two one victory at the world championship thursday stay with us here on archie for all the updates on that story but up next cross talk this edition host peter lavelle and guest discuss what the turmoil in the arab world means for iran it's coming your way next stay with us.

ok. the i. think the. below in welcome to crossfire computable about as the arab spring continues to sweep the arab middle east where does this leave here around with a new and democratic regimes in the region now deceased themselves from washington and how is the arab spring changing the islamic republic. ok. crosstalk the fate of iran in the storm of the arab revolutions i'm joined by mohammad marandi into round he's a professor at the university of toronto in london we go to jonathan paris he's a security specialist in senior fellow with the atlantic council and author of the recent report prospects for iran and in irvine we crossed

a serai so poor ehrlich she's an independent research writer and political commentator all right crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want but first let's look at iran and its neighborhood. though face to its toughest sanctions where iran appears no less a dent in the face of the right as this is trying to adjust its ongoing democratic iran's favor in recent times diplomatic predicament the revolution in egypt and the highly praised. like iran also. praying and. isolated iran right now for a fine your partners and building alliances has already turned in your brain has doing something to go in there relations was highlighted. went to war ship sailed through the suez canal for the first time in thirty one years the shit uprising and also works to iran's advantage to run speaks out in support of protestors who

struggle against the so no ruling class. bricklaying and washington's behavior was strongly condemned by this occurred probably why should a monarch family. people each not really should cast their vote in the ballot box and anyone who is elected. will be the leader whether this sense of justice is not applied to ceiling which continues to suppress dissent is cluing not interested in losing one of its allies in the interim as has been reported that iran has provided the syrian authorities that ability prize in dealing with by scale dissent all the while washington is watching we are watching very closely what iran is doing in the region. we hear praising the uprisings in the middle east and north africa. except it doesn't praise what happens inside iran

and it doesn't praise what is happening in syria it is a further example of the hypocrisy of the iranian regime when both countries are busy accusing the other of hypocrisy the earth here's the sunni and shia divide will intensify even further and clones of the arab spring to do it most of the revolutionaries would basically do is. politically it such of course is hardly attractive the our projections the arab spring will eventually spread to iran and then dinner jones will fall and mubarak's footsteps however the scale of the recent protests cannot become passed to what in egypt maybe but not yet. crosstalk. all right so i always go to the person that gets up earliest for the program that's you in california so i'll go to you first here how is the standing of the united states in the region now and visa v.-e. around because for the last thirty years the united states is just been at odds

with the islamic republic almost to the point of fanaticism and yet we see these these revolutions are revolts being played out in north africa and other parts of the region which you know we don't know if they're going to be anti-american but it's clearly they're not going to be as pro-american as the dictators that have fallen is that to iran's advantage or is it really and i'm secular to question. good morning thanks for having me on your show and to be frank with you i am not certain that i would call them revolutionaries in the region and i am very apprehensive of the term the arab spring because that was first applied to the two thousand and five comments made by various reporters thinking that after the illegal invasion of iraq the democracy of progress toward democracy would follow and is now being applied to the uprisings in various countries in the region and

had his uprisings been totally independent of outsiders. i would say that they would end up being the making the countries more sovereign and rhythm of their various dictators but they're not independent they've been they're actually taters this are taking advantage of people's dissatisfaction and we know for a fact it's everywhere and many experts believe that national in government for democracy and freedom house has been training the people to be on the streets and revolt against her various regimes and it was it's actually interesting that the revolutions that i was there knob becomes a known exactly how i'm not sure of the this started in tunisia and egypt the two countries where the puppet dictator friends of the united states had terminal illnesses and i think that perhaps it was to america's advantage to control its

democracy program by initially getting rid of these two dictators and replacing them controlled chaos and then their on going to the other countries while boosting its own image in the in the area in the region where you are so that's one interpretation was going on because jonathan how do you think you ran please and all this is a net gain or net loss for them. it's hard to say right now if you are keeping score in a kind of conventional like power point of view military power and alliances you would have to say iran is doing well because they haven't yet lost an ally and they their enemies have lost a few or actually soraya has an interesting point maybe america hasn't lost egypt or tunisia but it's certainly not the same kind of knee jerk support that you could count on from mubarak and ben ali that you have now you have a much more chaotic situation for america so i would say right now iran is winning

however the big question mark is syria although i have something contrarian to say i hope people will jump in which is that on syria in a way saudi arabia iran and the united states are. even israel here kind of see eye to eye and trying to keep it going i mean nobody's really pulled the plug on assad least of all the united states ok mohamed if i go to you in toronto i mean united states israel and saudi arabia working together or do you see that in regard to syria and iran and iran go ahead you know. well i i think that with regards to syria. the turks are also concerned because they are they have the form of islam that dominates in turkey is is not the islam and it's much more mild and there is a large allawi population and

a minority population in some of his well as well as as well as a kurdish population so turkey too does not have an interest in syria falling if syria falls i think that as your previous case pointed out correctly. no one will really win even though i think perhaps even the saudis would be the biggest lou. because if the salahi's in syria are much more hardcore then. than in egypt and if if syria follows then jordan will i think definitely i think and saudi arabia will be more surrounded than before because right now the saudis have very poor relations with iraq with iran with back rein obviously. in yemen things are very unstable there is a weak central government the north of yemen who have very poor relations with the saudis because of the bombing of their villages by the saudi regime last year and

in the south there and they're salahi's which are hostile towards the saudis despite the fact that the saudi ruling family is sad life itself so i think that if jordan falls the saudis will be in a lot of trouble especially with the situation in egypt they're not very friendly with the soviets now either so serious that you're very busy. go ahead jonathan jump in jonathan go ahead i didn't i think that's a big leap to say that because there is just turn that around even from use as they call the opposition in syria solid fist that's a pretty binary look i mean it's syria has a lot of people opposed to our side right now there are variances druze in the south are there although we've village there are sunni ruled sudanese in the villages and banias who are being massacred there the city fall can cool right home so i mean to say it is very sad now is all of this and i don't mean to say that

this is anything but i mean is that i mean there is a gentlemen gentlemen let's let's go to just going jumping ahead. thank you when when the two speakers believe that it's to the interests of both america saudi iran israel and what have you to in a way back syria i tend to disagree because then i would have to ask why is it that the united states is funding the opposition and funding a satellite television in london television to broadcast anti regime propaganda into syria and i just hate the people against the regime so it's very hard for me to believe that. i mean. let's go back to let's go back to go ahead before we go to the break i think to be honest i think that americans and israelis are somewhat confused in their position because

as you could guess in the united states pointed out the americans are playing a role here and so are american allies in lebanon. really is is is funding groups within syria and the saudis are deeply involved in all of this but as i pointed out earlier i wasn't saying that the opposition to the syrian government is just sanity but what i'm saying is that the concern in turkey is is that the overthrow of the government would have very negative consequences for them that is how they apparently feel about it but i don't think that the americans are i think that pointed out the americans their allies they've had a role in the unrest in syria and i'm not saying that the syrian government is is the ordinary people who are killed that's a good thing but the fact that there are soldiers who are also being killed show that it's not simply a revolution or an uprising in a sense and i think again you're. going to go to

a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the ground state with our team. kitchen is. preparing a broken ancient. highway construction and humanitarian aid. buses shady officials pockets the spoils of war it's the people who pay the price. profiteering here is no longer just down to drug trafficking. afghanistan damage all. costs.

couldn't take three days for chargers three to make amends three. three. three. three broncos living below the four year media project c.e.o. don carty dot com. taking the. welcome back across stuff i'm curious about to remind you we're discussing what's next for round in light of the arab awakening. taking the. stand. ok jonathan i want to go back to you in london

we were talking about the nature of the syrian regime in opposition and who benefits when things go wrong there go ahead jonathan well i think it's important to note that what's happening in syria in the villages and cities of syria is not something that the americans are still higher areas or cooking up or even the saudis it is really an indigenous revolt against what i call a mafia rule of about twenty five persons just about twenty five persons no more that have a run that run this country like it's their own a.t.m. machine that's the real fundamental problem i agree that the americans and the israelis have been very slow and uncertain to support the opposition i think the saudis likewise but clearly the fall of saddam would it would hurt iran and therefore iran has every interest in protecting this is more of an evenhanded battle between tanks on the one hand and arm on arm civilians on the other it's simply not even and say i don't think that's trying it a ok i just would just be

a briefly i just want to say. if that's not how iran is putting it iran is calling on the syrian government to move forward with reforms but at the same time there is absolutely no doubt that the saudis are deeply involved in that doesn't mean that since they're involved there is no legitimate grievances in syria but you have to keep in mind that unlike mubarak. i sad president assad has been able to bring huge crowds into damascus and other major cities so he is not without his supporters his foreign policy has been ocular among his own people and. segments of his own people at least so it's not as if it's a one sided game he is popular and he has many enemies but i think i'm no expert on syria so i have to wait and see what happens so i i'd ask you a question it's interesting i like a point you brought up earlier in the program about intentions in. syria unstable for a possible regime change is there just maybe the united states and its allies are

just looking for it playing out a number of different options simultaneously and seeing which one is most attractive when they get to a point where they find it is attractive it's not contradictory to have different different approaches. that's for sure i mean it would not be very wise to have just one plan they always have a prime b. and c. but they the united states clearly failed when he was when he invaded countries and made it back right now is trying to much cheaper way of undermining the regimes that are not friendly towards it and in fact in two thousand and ten head of israeli security interests can ask then said that syria is the biggest threat to israel and if they continue on the path they're continuing they would. send israel back to this nine hundred sixty seven borders and so syria is a huge concern if israel's for one thing they want the golan heights back and

israel will not negotiate on that and i think any analysts that would agree that the united states foreign policy is there to cater to israel is a national interest and there's a also obviously the foreign country i disagree for some reason jonathan i thought you would go right ahead but i think that's ludicrous that's absolutely nonsense israel has enjoyed thirty two years of peace with syria on the golan heights they're absolutely delighted with the stability they have with syria and that's precisely the reason why they're not pushing to have thrown under the truck the way obama threw mubarak under the truck there are different situations each country is different but it's already got you where it was going in syria like the circles are being supported all right. good point oh i think that the israelis definitely you

know like the syrian president hamas. and hezbollah are all supported and backed by syria and syria is the only neighbor of israel besides lebanon which is a very different case altogether. there are signs of border agreement with israelis they are in the city effectively in a state of war and the situation changes in egypt and of course it's complicated who knows what's going to happen in egypt to go i think that whether the americans like it or not there are forces at play in egypt will that will cause more pressure on the government to to support the people in gaza and i think that in general when you have a situation with like that with syria which is supporting these groups and then you have a new situation in gaza israelis will definitely be feeling more and more uncomfortable to say the least so it's aren't going to go down when we head mind boggling my it's

mind boggling jonathan should say they've lived in peace with thirty two years the syrian the israelis and syrians whereas if i was a couple of years ago they bombed illegally the syrian nuclear program and again as professor brierly in tehran said they have never never been there have never had a good relationship with syria and the what bothers israel more than anything in fact is the fact that syria has always been remade in our life you run and run for israel is moving around and that is an iranian threat that their own creates an israel wouldn't be getting the aid from the united states it wouldn't be acting the way it does without anybody stopping their illegal activities and their murders in their. palestinian lands ok jonathan i want to change gears here i'd like to i know you see about a paper that you wrote your recent paper on iran and it's not about how if we call it a revolution or revolts or awakening or spring or whatever it is we want to

a collectively call it what's happening in north africa and how is it going to affect iran. on the ground on the ground well that's a that's a piss that's a difficult one to say i think iran have found a formula for crushing the opposition in two thousand and nine after the fraudulent elections allegedly fraudulent elections where ahmadinejad's allegedly won sixty five percent of the vote and then you had an amass outpouring of people in the cities of tehran but ultimately through a combination of group force. and in any event what happened in north to in north africa is is really quite different they may have learned some twitter techniques from the iranian revolution but what happened in iran what happened in tunisia and egypt were fundamentally not i found this so he said take me with trace back to israel has suddenly. well i thought what are your sort of what is your he was not

even here. look look i can make a point and i recall your let me just say what i try and i read or i didn't finish my point i didn't finish my point i mean you're you're so obsessed with america and with israel i'm trying to say that what the arab spring is a crowd it's about the lack of governance is about the lack of personal freedom it's about a lot of things that the tunisian and egyptian people felt so i wouldn't say that it was impacted by iran however i would say that the problems that the people of tunisia and egypt are suffering from are not different from the problems that people in iranian a soft in iran are suffering from professor marandi i want to you very complete i jump and go well first of all very quickly in iran i didn't vote for mr ahmadinejad i'm not a fan of mr ahmadinejad but he won the elections legitimately there was absolutely no fraud the polls carried out by americans showed at the polls carried out by

iranians showed it and even mousavi as representative in the ministry of interior who had forty thousand volunteers said specifically five days after the election that there was no fraud but regardless of iran what is hot with north africa they should have good governance is very important i agree with you completely on that and the issue of corruption and dignity but also i think what is very important regardless of who is managing these revolutions in which direction it is taking it people of the region are very angry towards their leaders for blindly supporting the united states and aiding. the united states in its support for apartheid policies in palestine the people of the region this is like israel immensely not because they are jewish but because there is a zionist ideology that dominates the land and the people of palestine are treated as target they're not treated as human beings and that is very central to how

people in this region feel so ryan we want to chime in on that. i do agree with professor marandi one hundred percent i also want to point out that the us you run does deal with protests but also understand that the support for the regime in iran comes from the people like the. scenario or tunisia where it was the united states and israel the support of this countries so if if even if there is an uprising in iran the majority of people do support the regime and the president and so if numbers ok jonathan if i know if i feel in london of course at the center of american foreign go right ahead thunderstruck write a bill and alice says but i don't know where to begin i think it's utter nonsense or nonsense the iranian people do not support your army and people do not support medina job that's art or nonsense and human rights violations of my leisure i know

your mind right away excuse me sir i am speaking male you listen. human rights violations compare compare kegs and syria shooting unarmed civilians compare with a question as you did to poor neda in tehran that compare that to whatever you think israelis are doing well ok what does it mean if there's anybody who's going to train your. property and this is the pair problem you're wonderful john i put off to a friend yeah i do for a laugh if you carry marshall they share marshall when osama bin ladin there was a caption last week on sky news or some of bin ladin says there were not be peace in palestine until the rights of palestinians there be interrupted care marshall who was watching the massacre in homs of syrian supported by iran by the way of syrian tanks and to march or so come off it everybody i talk to from bank. a c two

to cairo to two to tunisia and now here and holmes says we reject the big lie the bedroom lies that says it's israel's paul ryan i don't even need to get professional randi to weigh what america just air marshall explained this is pretty high but he is very smart. people freedom that's what all right i'm sorry we've run out of time talks a lot of time we have just run out of time thank you for this very spirited debate many thanks to my guest today and to rand london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t. see you next time you remember cross-talk rules. can.

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