sure is that similar to simulate a huge decision early on in the war where is the arab spring used to sweep the arab middle east where does this leave you with a new and democratic regimes in the region just to see. its all fall down or moscow this is all the more deaths are reported in syria how security pulls are they for the final demonstrated despite promises to hold off meanwhile washington is seemingly gearing up to denounce president assad's government in. russia and that's the right size the twenty sixteen i saw at the world championship because you already have the next winter olympics on the twenty eighth that involved in its pockets. and the countries are old so you think you should haste refugees from the arab uprisings as migrants

a pass from one state to another long are found in order to check this returning to the. next people about how do you get discounts all the time all in the arab world means that iran was basically cross-talk right now. ok. the i. mean welcome to crossfire computer lavelle as the arab spring continues to sweep the arab middle east where does this leave you around with a new and democratic regimes in the region now deceased themselves from washington

and how is the arab spring changing the islamic republic. ok. cross-talk the fate of iran in the storm of the arab revolutions i'm joined by mohammad marandi in toronto he's a professor at the university of toronto and in london we go to jonathan paris he's a security specialist in senior fellow with the atlantic council and author of the recent report prospects for iran and in irvine we crossed a serai support for ehrlich she's an independent research writer in political commentator all right crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want but first let's look at iran and its neighborhood. though faced with tougher sanctions this year iran appears no less involved in the face of the west as the service is trying to invest its ongoing democratic. savor in washington's diplomatic predicament the revelers and the highly praised. bric

are also welcome for of all. and leave. isolated iran may actually find new partners and build new alliances has already turned in your praise in his dealings with. going there relations was highlighted. went to war ship sailed through the suez canal for the first time in thirty one fares the shared surprising and also works to iran's advantage to iran speaks out in support of protestors who struggle against the so no ruling class. plain and washington's behavior was strongly condemned by this problem why should a monarch family dictatorially the people each not really should cast their ballot boxes and anyone who is elected. will be the leader over this sense of justice is not applied to soon as we speak to is to suppress dissent is cluing not interested in losing one of its allies in the region as has been

reported that iran has provided the syrian authorities with their level of prize in dealing with by scale dissent along our own washington is watching we are watching very closely what iran is doing in the region. we hear iraq and praising the uprisings in the middle east and north africa. except it doesn't praise what happens inside iran and it doesn't praise what is happening in syria it is a further example of the hypocrisy of the iranian regime while both countries are busy using the other crissy there are theories that the sunni and shia divide will intensify even further and closer to the arab spring did much of the revolutionaries to its power would basically do years both politically and such of course has attracted the projections the arab spring will eventually spread to iran

and to her dinner germs will follow in the barracks footsteps number of the recent protests cannot become passed to what we saw in egypt maybe but not yet and that's a trauma for crosstalk. all right so i always go to the person they get some earliest for the program that's you in california so i'll go to you first here how is the standing of the united states in the region now and visa v. iran because for the last thirty years the united states has just been at odds with the islamic republic almost to the point of fanaticism and that we see these these revolutions or revolts being played out in north africa and other parts of the region which you know we don't know if they're going to be anti-american but it's clearly they're not going to be as pro-american as the dictators that have fallen is that to iran's advantage or is it really a non sequitur question. good morning thanks for having me on your show

and to be frank with you i am not certain that i would call them revolutionaries in the region and i am very apprehensive of the term the arab spring because that was first applied to the two thousand and five comments made by various reporters thinking that after the illegal invasion of iraq the democracy of progress toward democracy would follow and it's now being applied to the uprisings in various countries in the region and had these uprisings been totally independent of outsiders. i would say that they would end up being the making the countries more sovereign and greet them there are various dictators but they're not independent they've been there i just haters are taking advantage of people's dissatisfaction and we know for a fact it's everywhere and many experts believe that national indictment for the

marcos in freedom house has been training the people to be arson on the streets and revolt against her various regimes and it was it's actually interesting that the revolutions as they're now become to known exactly how i'm not sure of that the this started in tunisia and egypt the two countries where the puppet dictators friends of the united states had terminal illnesses and i think that perhaps it was to america's advantage to control its democracy program by initially getting rid of these two dictators and replacing them controlled chaos and then their on going to the other countries but while boosting its own image in the in the area in the region where you once was one interpretation was going really good jonathan how do you feel you ran please and all of this is a net gain or a net loss for them. it's hard to say right now if you are keeping score in

a kind of conventional like power point of view military power and alliances you would have to say iran is doing well because they haven't yet lost an ally and they their enemies have lost a few or actually so i as an interesting point maybe america hasn't lost egypt or tunisia but it's certainly not the same kind of knee jerk support that you could count on for mubarak and ben ali that you have now you have a much more chaotic situation for america so i would say right now iran is winning however the big question mark is syria although i have something contrarian to say i hope people will jump in which is that in syria in a way saudi arabia iran and the united states. and even israel here kind of see eye to eye in trying to keep assad going i mean nobody's really pulled the plug on a side least of all the united states ok i'm home and i'm going to you in toronto i

mean united states israel and saudi arabia working together or do you how do you feel how do you see that in regard to syria and iran and iran go ahead you know. well i i think that with regards to syria. the turks are also concerned because they are they have the form of islam that dominates and turkey is is not the islam and it's much more mild and there is a large population and a minority population into kids well as well as as well as a kurdish population so turkey too does not have an interest in syria falling if syria falls i think that as your previous case pointed out correctly. no one will really win even i think perhaps even the saudis would be the biggest lose. because if the salahi's in syria are much more hardcore than in. than in

egypt and if if syria falls then jordan will i think definitely i think fall and saudi arabia will be more surrounded than before because right now the saudis have very poor relations with iraq with iran with back rein obviously. in yemen things are very unstable there is a weak central government the north of yemen but who these have poor relations with the saudis because of the bombing of their villages by the saudi regime last year and in the south there and their silence he is which are hostile towards the saudis despite the fact that the saudi ruling family aside i think itself so i think that if jordan falls the saudis will be in in a lot of trouble especially with the situation in egypt they're not very friendly with the sony is now either so serious that you're very busy. go ahead jonathan jump in jonathan go ahead i didn't i think that's a big leap to say that because there is this term that my iranian friend uses they

call the opposition in syria solid pissed that's a pretty binary look i mean it's syria has a lot of people opposed to assad right now there are civilians druze in the south there are there are we've village there are sunni girls sudanese in the villages and banias who are being massacred there the city fall can cool in homes i mean i didn't mean to say that you were very sad now is all of this and i don't mean to say that there's anything i missed that i mean there was a gentlemen gentlemen let's. go ahead. thank you when when the tears speaker is believes that it's to the interests of both america saudi iran israel and what have you to in a way back syria i tend to disagree because then i would have to ask why is it that the united states is funding the opposition and funding

a satellite television in london television to broadcast anti regime propaganda in syria and i just hate the people against the regime so it's very hard for me to believe that. i mean this goes. this goes back to let's go back to before we go to the break i think to be honest i think the americans and israelis are somewhat confused in their position because as you could guess in the united states pointed out the americans are playing a role here and so are american allies in lebanon. really is is is fun being groups within syria and the saudis are deeply involved in all this but but as i pointed out earlier i wasn't saying that the opposition to the syrian government is just sanity but what i'm saying is that the concern in turkey is is that the

overthrow of the government would have very negative consequences for them that is how they apparently feel about it but i don't think that the americans are i think that as pointed out americans their allies they've had a role in the us in syria and i'm not saying that the syrian government is is that you know ordinary people who are killed the good thing but the fact that there are soldiers who are also being killed so that it's not simply a revolution or an uprising in the sense and i think again you're. going to a short break right after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the ground state with r.t. . if you can. see.

yes my name is daniel smith this is julian assange we're here to make a short presentation about the we can fix project. the first step in the fourth day to get information out about the real world. to hear more on you and mom and her. secrecy is the biggest. fear to be a democracy. if i had to focus and you saw this in danger you would hunt me down and kill you. this is exactly one of the reasons why we left the question because it has become more like well this is all james. than the actual information. but thank you. so a whole people around the won't. like me.

please feel free. to take three days for chargers free to make amends three years three. three. three broncos living below for your media projects c.d.o. don carty dot com. can still. welcome back across time you know about to remind you we're discussing what's next for iran in light of the arab awakening. taking the. story. ok jonathan i'm going to go back to you in london

we were talking about the nature of the syrian regime and opposition and who benefits when things go wrong there go ahead jonathan well i think it's important to note that what's happening in syria in the villages and cities of syria is not something that the americans are as to how rare it is or cooking up or even the saudis it is really an indigenous revolt against what i call a rule of about twenty five persons just about twenty five persons no more that have run that run this country like it's their own a.t.m. machine that's the real fundamental problem i agree that the americans and the israelis have been very slow and uncertain to support the opposition i think the saudis likewise but clearly the fall of the side would it would hurt iran and therefore you iran has every interest in portraying this is more of an evenhanded battle between tanks on the one hand and arm on arm civilians on the other it's just simply not even and so i don't think that's what i was trying at a ok mom i just have just very briefly i just want to. that's not how iran is

putting it in iran is calling on the syrian government to move forward with reforms but at the same time there is absolutely no doubt that the saudis are deeply involved in that doesn't mean that since they're involved there is no legitimate grievances in syria but you have to keep in mind that unlike mubarak. a sad person that assad has been able to bring huge crowds into damascus and other major cities so he is not without it's a quarter of his foreign policy has been popular among his own people and. make statements of his own people at least so it's not as if it's a one sided game he is popular and he has many enemies but i think i mean i'm no expert on syria so i have to wait and see what happens so i i'd ask you a question it's interesting i like a point you brought up earlier in the program about intentions in. making syria unstable for a possible regime change is that just maybe the united states and its allies are

just looking for it playing out a number of different options simultaneously and seeing which one is most attractive when they get to a point where they find it is attractive it's not contradictory to have different different approaches. that's very true i mean it would not be very wise to have just one plan they always have a prime b. and c. but they the united states clearly failed when he was when he invaded countries and made it bankrupt now it's time to much cheaper way of undermining the regimes that are not friendly towards it and in fact. in two thousand and ten head if israeli security address that can ask then said that syria is the biggest threat to israel and if they continue on the path they're continuing they would. send israel back to this night in sixty seven borders and so syria is a huge concern of israel's for one thing they want the golan heights back and

israel will not negotiate on that and i think any analysts that would agree that the united states foreign policy is there to cater to israel is a national interest and there'd be chaos obviously the very country i disagree for some reason jonathan i thought you would go right ahead but i think that's ludicrous that's absolutely nonsense israel has enjoyed thirty two years of peace with syria on the golan heights they are absolutely delighted with the stability they have with syria and that's precisely the reason why they are now pushing to have thrown under the truck the way obama through mubarak under the truck there are different situation each country is different but it's already got he was going in syria you know it's a struggle driven supported all right. good point well i think the israelis

definitely do not like the syrian president hamas this time it's been hezbollah are all supported and backed by syria and syria is the only neighbor of israel besides lebanon which is a very different case altogether. but hasn't signed a border agreement with the israelis they are in the city effectively in a state of war and the situation changes in egypt and of course it's complicated who knows what's going to happen in egypt but i think that whether the americans like it or not there are forces at play in egypt will that will cause more pressure on the government to to support people in gaza and i think that in general when you have a situation with like that with syria which is supporting these groups and then you have a new situation in gaza israelis will definitely be feeling more and more uncomfortable to say the least so. go ahead is really going on with the way ahead mind boggling

my it's mind boggling that jonathan should say they have lived in peace for thirty two years but syria the israelis and syrians whereas in fact a couple of years ago they had pardoned illegally the syrian nuclear program and again as professor marandi in tehran said they have never never been there have never had a good relationship with syria and the what bothers israel more than anything in fact is the fact that syria has always been remade in our life iran and iran for israel is a boogie man and that is an iranian threat that their own creates an israel wouldn't be getting the aid from the united states it wouldn't be acting the way it does without anybody stopping their illegal activities and their murders and their . encroaching on palestinian lands ok jonathan i want to change gears here i just i mean think about the taper that you wrote your recent paper on iran let's talk about how if we call it

a revolution or revolts or awakening or spring or whatever it we want to collectively call it what's happening in north africa and how is it going to affect iran. on the ground on the ground well that's a that's a this that's a difficult one to say i think iran and i found a formula for crushing the opposition in two thousand and nine after the fraudulent elections allegedly fraudulent elections where ahmadinejad's allegedly won sixty five percent of the fraud and then you had an mass outpouring of people in the cities of tehran but ultimately through a combination of group force. and in any event what happened in north to in north africa is is really quite different they may have learned some twitter techniques from the iranian revolution but what happened in iran what happened in tunisia and egypt were fundamentally you got a plan this really is going to take me with trace back to israel has suddenly. well

i just my thoughts are you're sort of going to hear your he was not that you want here. look look i could make a point i know you're all of a lawyer let me just well save lives like right there in america where i didn't finish my point i didn't finish my point i mean here you're so upset with america and with israel i'm trying to say that what the arab spring is a proud it's a proper lack of governance is about the lack of personal freedom it's about a lot of things that the tunisian and egyptian people felt so i wouldn't say that it was impacted by iran however i would say that the problems that the people of tunisia and egypt are suffering from are not different from the problems that people iranians of iran are suffering from a professional right now what do you mean completely i jump and go well first of all very quickly in iran the i didn't vote for mr ahmadinejad i'm not a fan of mr ahmadinejad but he won the election this legitimately there was absolutely no fraud the polls carried out by american showed at the polls carried

out by iranians showed it and even mousavi is representative in the ministry of interior who had forty thousand volunteers said specifically five days after the election that there was no fraud but regardless of iran what is hard with north africa they should have good governance is very important i agree with you completely on that and the issue of corruption and dignity but also i think what is very important regardless of who is managing these revolutions and which direction it is taking the people of the region are very angry towards their leaders for blindly supporting the united states and aiding. the united states in its support for apartheid policies in palestine the people of the region dislike israel immensely not because they are jewish but because there is a zionist ideology that dominates the land and the people of palestine are treated as dirt they're not treated as human beings and that is very central to how people

in this region feel so ryan you want to chime in on that. i do agree with professor marandi one hundred percent i also want to point out that yes iran does deal with protests but also understand that the support for the regime in iran comes from the people i like the. scenario. where it was the united states and israel the support of this countries so if if even if there is an uprising in iran the majority of people do support the regime and the president and it's just so it's number ok jonathan that if i know if i feel in london of course at the center of american foreign go right ahead thunderstruck write a bill and alice is but i don't know where to begin i think is utter nonsense since the iranian people do not support your idea of people do not support a job that's art or nonsense and human rights violations of my leisure are not your

men right away excuse me sir i am speaking no you listen. human rights violations compare compared tanks in syria shooting unarmed civilians compare with a bus she did to poor neighbor in tehran that compared that to what ever you think israelis are going to tell them ok what does that mean exactly how to train your. propaganda this is the care problem you're wonderful. friend yeah yeah it was a laugh if you care marshall they share marshall when osama bin ladin there was a caption last week on sky news or some of bin ladin says there were not be peace in palestine until the rights of palestinians their care marshal who was watching the massacre in homs of syria and supported by iran by the way let's cheery and

tanks and to marshall said come off it everybody i talk to from bangor. see through to cairo to to to tunisia and now here and holmes says we reject the big lie the big lie that says it's israel is for far i don't even need to get professional randi to weigh what america just air marshall explained this is pretty high but here is where you are trying to contain your people freedom and that's what i'm sorry we've run out of time so some time we shall run out of time thank you for this very spirited debate many thanks to my guest today in turan london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here in r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk rules. keep.

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