these are the images from seeing from the streets of canada. trying to look for asians room today. where it's kind of the headlines now that. the russian foreign minister said the whole point to libyan rebels and palestinian officials and. homes are sporadic obama continues to push for israel to reach territorial agreements with protestants . the largest anti-government protests to years rather spent the children in opposition from sing to see the president outlined wednesday thousands happening around me in the capital tbilisi of one hundred cycles are going to step down.

plus the e.u. turns up the heat on greece not doing enough to stop threatening. athens or blushes and any minute clears that respect uptown so let's get it. up next our debate show cross talk with host people about. can. follow in welcome to cross talk and peter lavelle the arab awakening is often referred to as revolutions in the arab middle east there can be no doubt something

important is occurring in this region but should we be using the word revolution picture tauriel regimes remain intact and foreign influences continue to prevail. you can. still see. crosstalk what is happening in the arab middle east today i'm joined by michael monger in durham he is a professor at duke university in new york we have a loan ben my ear is a professor at new york university and in boston across the daniel pipes he's an author and director of the middle east forum all right gentlemen this is cross talk and there's only one rule you can jump in anytime you want to go to michael in durham first do you feel comfortable with this term revolutions occurring in the arab world because there are so many different examples where you go all the way from tunisia to yemen to bahrain egypt we could go on and on do you like to term revolution for anything that's going on in that region right now. one of the things

political scientists debate is actually what constitutes a revolution and in a way a revolution is just a successful change of regime it needn't be violent they can be peaceful it's not clear that what's actually going on here is revolutions what we have is a lot of violence by organized military and government it's not clear that these are going to be revolutions in the in the sense that there's a regime change and the optimism that many people early on felt that these would not be just revolutions but them a craddick revolutions i think has not yet been borne out now daniel thanks to you in boston it's very interesting here because if we take and we take the examples the two popular examples right now tunisia egypt eighty they ok you the dictator is gone but the military has taken their place and we still see the reports that came out in the last few hours that torture in remains in egypt so i mean now what i

couldn't see that is a revolution there i mean it's just it's east that the regime change at the top it's gone that's all go ahead right you are i just slightly met which is that it's not the military took over and in february for mubarak military has been charged as one hundred fifty two that in five military leaders now. sort out a park and transfer it and we go from mubarak to turn sour and i would emphasize regime continuity here. so to me and egypt i would say are could hit us by the security military apparatus but in five other places in the potential revolution in the iman in libya and bahrain and syria and iran so no revolution so far but there might be some to come along ben meyer new york what do you think about that i mean and should be thinking about revolution in a positive sense ok i mean we can talk about that who will be democratic. well

what we are really witnessing today in the middle east is what i call our revolutionary changes that is revolutionary changes by definition is whether or not the status quo ante will be restored i do not believe that the status quo ante will be restored so in that says there are revolutionary changes whether the military remains in egypt or in tunisia and elsewhere the changes will have to be to have to take place and i think all of our government will no exception in one form or no will have to introduce some kind of reform in order to meet the expectations of the hopes and aspirations of the people in that sense these are revolutionary changes of the arab world have never experienced before and these changes are going to continue for some time to come because the wave of instability

or whoosh it changes is going to continue for for a while and no arab country is going to follow the same pattern each country is going to adopt different kind of approaches ok michael fine go to back to you and i mean good is the military in the in the arab world a good midwife to bring stable democratic societies in your opinion and we don't have enough information yet. i would go farther than to say that the military is not a very good midwife i actually think the mock receive may not be a very good midwife the united states in urging countries to have elections before they really have the other institutions that make elections possible i think maybe making a mistake if i close my eyes and think what is it that makes the western system of government actually work what allows people self-determination it's not the ballot box it's an independent judiciary and the rule of law so i'm worried that if we urge countries to have elections before they have any kind of institutions that are ready to do so it will be one election undone and so you see daniel i mean how do

we marriage the two because people are actually people are looking for change is ok and the west of august nearly jerk response is elections but maybe elections are not going to really start solving a lot of these problems right here and i go to you daniel on that one first i go i go further than professor monger and so not only is that rule of law but it's all the other aspects of civil society and it's freedom of speech freedom of movement and loyal opposition and these are about all this very subtle concepts which we in the west which we exactly which we in the west are in a sense born with or very alien much of the world and so it's a long process of developing civil society and then topping it off with marcus and by the way democracy should begin with voting for dog catcher voting for misspoke ounces and then building up towards voting for the head of head of government it's a long slow process and you can't jump start it alone the

a new york you want to jump in there go ahead case a pretty yeah i mean centuries you know i know absolutely you know i think i think the the notion that you can introduce democratic reform that with like to speed it's a terribly mistaken one and the arab world is not the prepared united states has been pushing program a practical problem and it's not going to work unless the other institution exactly what my concern. it is absolutely true either institutions are developed but in particular i would say. economic development for example if you take egypt you can introduce all the political reform you want when you have fifty p. million people under the poverty line this is not going to provide with people one people one jobs and opportunity wants to feed their people with education this is the kind of institution you have to create concurrently as you move towards some kind of political reform but they would have to be rather gradual reform but moving fairly as x. that this is the on economic development specifically sustainable development to

empower the people from the bottom up do you want to jump in there i would disagree with. much too with the england developed the first democracy starting with the magna carta what eight hundred years ago and they were not rich by today's standards and there are plenty of countries such as sri lanka which have civil society without being rich in the plenty of rich countries saudi arabia that don't have civil society so they're really quite different and one is not necessary for the other materials in your point is right it may not right i said i didn't do you know my glycerin had first got it. it may not be well here you have. economic development but the thing is that egypt may actually have another revolution just over the price of wheat they don't have a middle class developing the middle class is a strong counterbalance to the centralized power of government as long as so many people are dependent for their daily bread literally in egypt for of because of the

price of wheat it's when it is very difficult so certainly dana was right but we need it would be it would be helpful to have some kind of independent middle class the absence of a middle class makes the development of rule of law much more difficult ok i had. you want to jump in go ahead no. there's no question this thing when you go to egypt and you see the poverty there and you talk to these people as they have been so many different occasions and they will tell you openly and clearly we do not necessarily want to avoid we are not in this as a matter of fact when you look at the further demonstration in egypt today what you see there demanding job they want you opportunities they want education they want health care they want housing they are there this time even are asking two or three reverse back and put their emergency laws back in place because this chaotic situation is emerging in egypt so what we're talking about here he cannot make developments on the other i mean he's basically used pretty neat to provide the

people with basic means so that they can they will be able to feed their kids they'll be able to send their children to school this is what is needed i am not suggesting you have you should know and they're taking up political reform but they said that both would have to go and in that has the united state is offering as it should and many other countries significant economic aid to egypt without which political pull or form no matter how well meant will not it will not really resolve the egyptian problems then you wonder if go in there go ahead i take exception to your i take exception to the years from relations you strike the people. in effect need to be given food jobs. that's the problem is this mentality of subservience and dependence what needs to develop in egypt and some of the other countries but egypt a particular country rather than for three years by the way. is a sense of entrepreneurship and independence and ironically it was hosni

mubarak's son gamal a banker. who had experience in britain and elsewhere who was looking towards developing egypt's economy in this free market way and the military which is now fully back you. and in the saddle. is very socialist minded and very good handed with its vast economic enterprises under its control and i suspect that we will see more of the state socialism that's been in place for sixty years and the kind of entrepreneurship that's necessary to create jobs and create wealth is not going to happen in the foreseeable future mike michael thank you i need you you can think i had had a long go ahead reply you know you're really easy you can create jobs i'm going to top the bottom what i am talking about in the main and we've tried that in morocco is sustainable development project that is you go to villages thousands of them you

get a group such as five six villagers together and they decide on the kind of project they want any kind of project that is going to create jobs empower their people and that is what you are going to need in egypt where they have millions and millions of people are under the poverty line so you are not going to we're not suggesting i think it's for the government not to have economic development projects but you're going to have to start from the bottom out i said a number of development in these type of countries is essential in my view to lifting them up in the future so that they can become. eventually you know several gentlemen let me jump in here is we're going to go to a short range after the break we'll continue our discussion of the so-called revolutions in the air for our state with our.

twenty years ago in the largest country in the. country. began a journey. where did it take to. download the official tea up location in your body for i pod touch from the i.q. stamps to. one shall see life on the go. video on demand parties my old pals an r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. question on the.

can. welcome back to crossfire computer i'll remind you we're talking about changes in the arab middle east. you can. see. michael if i can go to you it's change gears here let's look at geopolitics how much is the west really interested really saying all these changes here and i think we we did a good job in the first part of the program as it is pretty hard to define depending on what's going on to be depending on what area we're looking at civil society democracy reform the military it's really very very varied right now but let's look at the region from the outside looking in how much does the united states for example want to see the military in tunisia and in egypt stay in power more or less

as they are they will honor agreements like with for israel and they still have a good ally may that's what they want they don't need in their really shown to be have any interest with the people on the ground they just want to country a leader they can count on. the problem is that there's no such thing as the united states when it comes to foreign policy what there is is an administration and i honestly don't know what this administration wants a lot of the democracy activists in egypt were frankly much more happy with george w. bush because there was a consistent push they didn't agree with everything you did they did agree with iraq well there was a consistent pushing favor of saying no we're in favor of self-determination by the people of these countries the obama administration appears to just want to be on the side of whoever is winning we've recently as recently as january president biden was singing the praises of the libyan regime and now it turns out no no libya is no good and it's always been bad so we just want to be on the side that's

winning and i think people see through that the united states needs to choose some kind of consistent policy and articulate it and recognize that this takes place in the context of our only actual ally in the region which is israel being have having to work together ok. you were not here and we should talk about bahrain as well go ahead and you are going to new york. you know what i think i think mike is to some extent is correct but i think the united states'. position are to be and it is at least a this what obama has been articulated three three central point one some reform will have to take place to that no violence should be used against peaceful demonstrators and three that the united states will reward those countries that follow the first two rules but we have to also remember the united states does not have the same interest in every single country for example if you take the gulf state the united states is going to have to take entirely different approach

because of our interest because our concern about about iran hence our policy and relation with it with black rain is somewhat different so we are much easier going with back grain and we doing says safer in libya or in syria at this point that is we have to distinguish here between american national interests in various other countries and is no question about it that our conduct and our reaction to each country is depending on the level of interest in each of these countries and i wonder one other point i want to mention when it comes for example to the gulf regardless of the fact that behind has a majority of shiite the majority of population in the gulf is sunni and they are terrified for example of what iran is up to has the united states doesn't have a choice but to support the current regime that's right they've got so we have to distinguish between american interests the interests of the local government and it's and they're very tough just to try to draw any kind of a template and say all arab states are going to follow the same result that's not

going to happen ok daniel you want to jump in there if it's that you want to go ahead you had great head first like i'd like to correct which you've sort of have to do single united states has not had a consistent problems for years professor monger pointed out under george w. bush there was a dramatic break in two thousand and three saying for sixty years we've worked with the tyrants now we're not going to stability used to be our goal now is marcus. it's a dramatic break for the two thousand and six or so if you're going up on that it's only a bonus continue to keep going up and we're back more or less was preaching thousand and three we had a very dramatic untruth for three years second point because there was some weezer in chief we did three change i mean you could say a change in policy did anything change on the ground mubarak was still there rich sure you still stood you still there were eight there were. to give you one example hamas won in the passing authority of many many effects in iraq here in the us and also margaret a lot about history there was no hint and democracy brought the people we don't

want to know you don't want a second point of view that i'm not so sure i don't want. most westerners don't want most muslims don't. but the. second point is i don't know if we have to have a consistent policy i mean in theory yes most of us have a have a policy that works everywhere but i think will be very hard to thread this. through various different countries i think it's somewhat controversial to any of the no no in between it's one of it's a very interesting point so the us should just say in the in the european union should say in nato should just say we're just there for a national interest and nothing more we're not going to we're not to talk about democracy when you talk about models here for you know i mean i mean exactly why we get the head marker site we likewise what we get but parker see all the time i think why go ahead go ahead in new york go ahead oh well you know you know this let's let's let's call a spade a spade the united states and the e.u.

have a specific interest in the middle east is no question about it they also know what we have going. up rising throughout the region demanding certain changes certain repond political reforms better a better way their way of better life better education so that that this is that doesn't mean that we cannot reconcile between our national interests and the interests of. with the general public in this region there must be a formula but what i'm saying it's not a simple formula and it's not applicable equally to every single arab nation because our answers differ and the interests of these arab states also differ in connection with their neighbors or as i said before you can not deal with bahrain in the same manner as you dealt with libya because of iran because of our naval bases there and so we going to have to do a difference the history of north korea kind of policies ok michael i want to go to you beginning right on with the difference maker is the the for the far more that the formula is dictated by the our national interest as well while considering the

interests of the of the nations in. as i said like the gulf and so you cannot really separate the united said cannot go totally against the interests of the gulf and those can go focus and only our needs are nervous ok my go to hell i want to go to michael and i have to find a wireless card how do you how do you seriously how do you get married how do you marry that you know it's a formula. i can see that it's quite right to say that we're not going to have the same policy for every country there are cultural differences there's about many differences what i guess i'm looking for is some consistent principle of a way of saying this is what the united states is trying to accomplish the problem that i see i guess you could call it hypocrisy or contradiction is that we we've seen the results of this with jimmy carter jimmy carter sporran policy mostly consisted of scolding countries that he thought didn't live up to the standards that the united states actually really didn't support itself because there were

a bunch of puppet regimes around the world that we supported to try to prevent the countries from going communist now we scored countries for not having elections but we also prop up the gears dictators in the hopes that they will not become islamic democracies well who we have to have some more consistent principle it seems to me then you want to jump in there which would be your formula i'm not sure i kind of term during the soviet era friendly tyrants. i guess a self explanatory we have now from the tyrants again and i'm not allowed to either i sure wish everyone were going to write it but i think it is in our interests in a very interesting to be a stability and that they move slowly and carefully through words as we talked about earlier towards democracy and not rush things and not have revolution not have as long as i'm not have iranian takeovers and so forth so i'm ok with with

different policies in different countries caught a punk receive called a consistency but that's the reality of making foreign policy especially for a power ok you want to see we've seen the result jimmy. jimmy carter it in some ways brought us to the islamic revolution in iran that's very interesting let's go back to the way that was democratic. a lot of people say if you go to new york well you know. and then you had the idea is absolutely right on this point that is we going to we cannot therefore knows nor should we have necessarily the same exact policy toward every single arab country that is not going to happen again because of the reason i mentioned earlier what we need to do how are we adhere to two or three principles i did we should be supporting reforms as a general rule we should be insisting that the non-user violence against peaceful demonstrators and we should also say that we will be rewarding those nations that countries that are going to follow the two of these two principles consistencies in

that regard is absolutely necessary president of america articulated that in a very strong my goal michael if you want to stick you use a stick use it if i may just try you have to use a stick sometime when they go into it here too as we have done with it with libya as we go into we need to do now in syria and elsewhere that is when they when they when they do these government do not adhere to the two to a basic initial two requirements then we're going to have to use a stick if it becomes necessary and i think some time we had some time too late in using the stakes as we are doing say for example with syria michael franco to you what about these are military these humanitarian interventions is setting an example good example of what can happen if if tyrants don't go reforms don't happen because you know there syria on the on the agenda there and this is sending messages through the entire region that if you you know the stick can come out but does that make does that fix things to make things better. well what seems to have

happened in libya is were we there's going to be a long term stalemate and the people are worse off than they would be if there were stability and if there were. maybe even if some cases if there were a good dictator so that the principle of nonviolence the principle of moving toward self-determination having us rule words those i understand i'm skeptical that we know enough about which side to support we may end up supporting a group that ends up if they win will just become an islamic dictatorship ok danny let me give you the last word on this for this is the last word yeah daniel who let me end it let me end on a humorous note answer malcolm recently noted non-essential stylings because you've got nothing to worry about a foot on the friends you as in iran or. syria and you've got a lot to worry about if he doesn't say a word as in the case of libya or that law so it's

a straight it's actually true but when. u.s. president is telling us what's what's out it means you're ok all right gentlemen thank you very much many thanks my guest today in boston and in new york and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on r t see you next time and remember crosstalk . we'll. bring you the latest inside stance technology from the ground flush. we've done the future coverage.

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