but you know what you would still be able to make her chose you could be killed or a pretty traditional engine with turns. in serbia easily be in britain where we can see they are going to. call them back here's a recap of the main stories we're covered in r t russia says the unity of palestinian factions plays a key role in shaping a future palestinian state statement came after the russian foreign ministers meeting with hamas and fatah in moscow. the opposition in georgia threatens to overthrow president saakashvili within days because trees being rocked by violent protests with demonstrators pledging and not to give up their fight against what they've dubbed a criminal regime. and with greece's debt spiraling out of control the rift with

e.u. lenders deepens the rising tension between the two was causing fault lies which some say mouth runs in the entire unity of the european union. but up next our debate show cross talk and in this edition host peter lavelle and his guests discuss whether the revolutionary hybrid the arab world is losing heart that's up next an artsy. can. follow and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle the arab awakening is often referred to as revolutions in the arab middle east there can be no doubt something

important is occurring in this region but should we be using the word revolution dictatorial regimes remain intact and foreign influences continue to prevail. and you can. see. crosstalk what is happening in the arab middle east today i'm joined by michael monger in durham he is a professor at duke university in new york we have a loan ben my ear he is a professor at new york university and in boston across the daniel pipes he's an author and director of the middle east forum all right gentlemen this is cross talk and there's only one rule you can jump in anytime you want i to go to michael in durham first do you feel comfortable with this term revolutions occurring in the arab world because there are so many different examples where you go all the way from tunisia to yemen to bahrain egypt we can go on and on do you like to term

revolution for anything that's going on in that region right now. one of the things political scientists debate is actually what constitutes a revolution and in a way a revolution is just a successful change of regime. it needn't be violent they can be peaceful it's not clear that what's actually going on here is revolutions what we have is a lot of violence by organized military and government it's not clear that these are going to be revolutions in the in the sense that there's a regime change and the optimism that many people early on felt that these would not be just revolutions but then a credit revolutions i think has not yet been borne out now daniel thanks to you in boston it's very interesting here because if we can if we take the examples the two popular examples right now like tunisia and egypt it be they ok you need dictator is gone but the military has taken their place and we still see the reports that came out in the last few hours that torture in remains in egypt so i mean next i

well i couldn't see that is a revolution there i mean it just reached its east that the regime a change at the top is gone that's all go ahead write your i just slightly among which is that it's not the military took over in february for mubarak a lot has been charged since nine hundred fifty two and five military leaders now nuclear so got a park and i'm sorry. we've moved from the bartender and i would emphasize regime continuity here. so tunisia and egypt i would say are quoted to us by the security guards for this but in five other places a good potential revolution in. the iman in libya and bahrain and syria and iran so no revolution so far but there might be someone to come along ben meyer new york what do you think about that i mean and should be thinking about revolution in a positive sense ok we can talk about that who will be democratic. well

what we are really witnessing today in the middle east is what i call a revolutionary changes that is revolutionary changes by definition is that whether or not the status quo ante will be restored i do not believe that this status quo ante will be restored so in that says they are revolutionary changes whether the military remains in egypt or in tunisia and elsewhere the changes will have to be to have to take place and i think all our government with no exception in one form or in that i would have to introduce some kind of reform in order to meet the expectations of the hopes and aspirations of the people in that sense these are revolutionary changes of the arab world have never experienced before and these changes are going to continue for some time to come because the wave of instability

or whooshing changes is going to continue for for a while and no other country is going to follow the same pattern his country is going to adopt a different kind of property it's ok michael trying to back you in durham i mean good is the military in the in the arab world a good midwife to bring stable democratic societies in your opinion and we don't have enough information there. i would go farther than to say that the military is not a very good midwife i actually think i'm ocracy may not be a very good midwife the united states in urging countries to have elections before they really have the other institutions that make a lections possible i think maybe making a mistake if i close my eyes and think what is it that makes the western system of government actually work what allows people self-determination it's not the ballot box it's an independent judiciary and the rule of law so i'm worried that if we urge countries to have elections before they have any kind of institutions that are

ready to do so it will be won the election done it's interesting daniel i mean how do we marriage that you because people are actually people are looking for change is ok and the west is a wild guess there kneejerk response is elections maybe elections are not going to really start solving a lot of these problems right here and i'm going to you daniel on that one first i go i go further than professor longer so not only is it rule of law but it's all the other aspects of civil society it is freedom of speech freedom of movement and loyal opposition and these are that's all there is very subtle concepts which we in the west which we exactly which we in the west are in a sense born with or very alien much of the world and so it's a long process of developing civil society and then topping it off with the markets and by the way democracy should begin with voting for dog catcher voting for missile councils and then building up towards voting for the head of head of government it's a long slow process and you can't jump start it alone the

a new york you want to jump in there go ahead case of britain yeah you need centuries you know i know absolutely you know i think i think the the notion that you can introduce democratic reform that with such a speed it's a terribly mistaken one and the arab world is not the prepared the united states has been pushing program a practical problem and it's not going to work unless the other institution exactly with my can see. it is absolutely true either institutions are developed but in particular i would say. economic development for example if you take egypt you can introduce all the political reform you want when you have fifty million people under the poverty line this is election are not going to provide with people one people one jobs and opportunity wants to feed their people want education this is the kind of institution you have to create concurrently as you move towards some kind of political reform but they would have to be rather gradual reform but moving fairly as explained this is the on economic development it's officially sustainable

development to empower the people from the bottom up do you want to jump in there i would disagree with yeah terrific nomics as much two of the of elop the first remark i see starting with the magna carta what eight hundred years ago they were not rich by today's standards and there are plenty of countries such as sri lanka which have a civil society without being rich in the plenty of rich countries saudi arabia that can have civil society so they're really quite different than one is not a search for the other materials daniels' point is right it would mean a isolation and do you know mind leaving behind first but it. it may not be well either you have. economic development but the thing is that egypt may actually have another revolution just over the price of weak they don't have a middle class developing a middle class is a strong counterbalance to the centralized power of government as long as so many

people are dependent for their daily bread literally in egypt for of because of the price of wheat it's really very difficult so certainly game is right but we need it would it would be helpful to have some kind of independent middle class the absence of a middle class makes the development of rule of law much more difficult ok i had. you want to jump in go ahead no no but you know. there's just no question listen when you go to egypt and you see the poverty there and you talk to these people as they had been so many different occasions and they will tell you openly and clearly we do not necessarily want to avoid we are not interested as a matter of fact when you look at the further demonstration in egypt today what you see they are demanding jobs they want the opportunities they want education they want healthcare they want housing they are there this am even asking to carry reverse back and put the emergency laws back in place because there's chaotic situation is emerging in egypt so what we're talking about here economic development from the right i mean is basically you put need to provide the people

with basic means so that they can they will be able to feed the their kids will be able to send their children to school this is what is needed i am not suggesting you have you should know either take no political reform but they said the growth would have to go and in and has the united state is offering as it should and many other countries significant economic aid to egypt without which political pull from no matter how how well meant will not will not really resolve the egyptian problems do you want to respond go in there go ahead i take exception to your i took exception to press upon my years formulation things like the people. in effect need to be given food and jobs. that's the problem it's this mentality of subservience and dependence what needs to develop from egypt and some of the other countries but egypt a particular country i lived for three years by the way. is a sense of entrepreneurship and independence and ironically it was hosni

mubarak son gamal a banker. who had experience in britain and elsewhere who was looking towards developing. economy in this free market and the military which is now fully back in . in this in the saddle. is very socialist minded a very good handed with its vast economic enterprises under its control and i suspect. we will see more of the state socialism that's been in place for sixty years and the kind of entrepreneurship it's necessary to create jobs and create wealth is not going to happen in the foreseeable future mike michael thank you you can think i had had a long go ahead reply you know you're really easy can create jobs from top to bottom what i am talking about in the main and we've tried that in morocco is

sustainable development project that is you go to villages thousands of them you get a group such as five six villagers together and they decide on the kind of project they want any kind of project that's going to create jobs empower their people and that is what you're going to need in egypt where they have millions and millions of people are under the poverty line so you are not going to we're not suggesting i think it's for the government not to have economic development projects but you're going to have to start from the bottom up i sustainable development in these type of countries is essential in my view to lifting them up in the future so that they can become. eventually you know several gentlemen let me jump in here is we're going to go to a short reins after the break we'll continue our discussion on the so-called revolutions in the air for stay with our.

twenty years ago the largest country. so to. speak energy. did it take the. world to. remove you the latest in science technology from around russia. we've got the future covered. cake.

welcome back to prosecute remind you we're talking about changes in the arab middle east. cape. michael if i can go to you to change gears here let's look at geopolitics how much is the west really interested when they saying all these changes here and i think we we did a good job in the first part of the program is that it's pretty hard to define depending on what's going on here depending on what area you are looking at civil society democracy reform the military is really very very varied right now but let's look at the region from the outside looking in how much does the united states for example want to see the military in tunisia and in egypt stay in power more or less as they are they they will honor agreements like with for israel and they still have a good ally they that's what they want they don't they they've never really shown to be have any interest with the people on the ground they just want to country

a leader they can count on. the problem is that there's no such thing as the united states when it comes to foreign policy what there is is an administration and i honestly don't know what this administration wants a lot of the democracy activists in egypt were frankly much more happy with george w. bush because there was a consistent push they didn't agree with everything he did they didn't agree with iraq but there was a consistent push in favor of saying no we're in favor of self-determination by the people of these countries the obama administration appears to just want to be on the side of whoever is winning we've recently as recently as january president biden singing the praises of the libyan regime yet and now it turns out no no libya is no good and it's always been bad so we just want to be on the side that's winning and i think people see through that the united states needs to choose some kind of consistent policy and articulate it and recognize that this takes place in the context of our only actual ally in the region which is israel being have having

to work together ok. you were nodding your head here and we should talk about bahrain as well go ahead and you are going to new york. you know what i think i think mike this is to some extent is correct but i think the united states'. position ought to be and it is at least a this what obama has been articulated three three central point one seven reform will have to take place to that no violence should be used against peaceful demonstrators and see that the united states will reward those countries that follow the rules but we have to also remember the united states does not have the same interest in every single country for example if you take the gulf states the united states is going to have to take an entirely different approach because of our interest because our concern and what about iran hence our policy and relation with it with back rain is somewhat different so we are much easier going with the

grain and we doing says safer in libya or in syria at this point that is we have to distinguish here between american national interests in various arab countries and is no question about it our conduct and our reaction to each country is depending on the level of interest in each of these countries and i wonder one other point i want to mention when it comes for example to the gulf regardless of the fact that behind has a majority of shiite the this is the majority of the population in the gulf is sunni and they are terrified for example of what iran is up to the united states doesn't have a choice but to support the current regime throughout the gulf so we have to distinguish between american interests the interests of the local government and there is and they're very tough just to try to draw any kind of a template and say all arab states are going to follow the same result that's going to happen ok daniel you want to jump in there that you want to use your hands you had great head first like i'd like to correct which roots are introducing

a united states has not had a consistent policy professor monger pointed out under george w. bush that was a dramatic great contrast three saying for sixty years we've worked with the tyrants now we're not going to still build a used to be our goal down some markers. so dramatic break but by two thousand and six or so given up on that answer my bonus contributor giving up and we're back more or less i would was pretty fast free we had a very dramatic interlude for three years second course it was there was some ways are easy to do it's already changed i mean you could say a change in policy did anything change on the ground mubarak was still there which sure could say you still stood you still there and wait there were. to give you one example hamas won in the passing authority and many many effects in iraq here in the us a lot of markers the lot about because if it was no head and democracy brought the people we don't want to know you don't want a second point of view that i'm not so sure i don't want. most westerners not one

most muslims don't. got the. the second point is that i don't know if we have to have a consistent policy i mean in theory yes most of the us have a policy that works everywhere but i think will be very hard to thread this. through various different countries i think it's somewhat controversial to any of the no no in between it's a look at it's a very interesting point so the us are just in the in the european union should say in nato should just say we're just there for a national interest and nothing more we're not going to we're not to talk about democracy when you talk about models here for there are no i mean i mean exactly why we can't the hypocrisy might well quite as well we get to the park you see all the time and i think right overhead going to new york or whether we you know you know this let's let's let's call a spade a spade the united states and the e.u. have this specific interest in the middle it is no question about it they also now we have going revolutions or uprising or throughout the region demanding certain

changes certain reforms political reforms better a better way their way of better life better education so that that this is that doesn't mean that we cannot reconcile between our national interests and the interests of. with the general public in this region there must be a formula but what i'm saying it's not a simple formula and it's not applicable equally to every single arab nation because our interests differ and the interests of these arab states also differ in connection with their neighbors very as i said before you cannot deal with bahrain in the same manner as you dealt with libya because of iran because of our naval bases there and so and so we're going to have to do a difference hazari of north korea kind of policies ok michael i want to go to you beginning right on a different matter is the the for the from what the formula is dictated by the our national interest as well while considering the interests of the low of the nations in. as i said like the gulf so you cannot really separate the two and like you said

cannot go totally against the interests of the gulf no it can't go focus and only on it's on hers ok my go to hell with you know my going to have to find that i like living on our country how do you mean original how do you get married how do you marry the two what's the formula. i can see it it's quite right to say that we're not going to have the same policy for every country there are cultural differences there's a bottom many differences what i guess i'm looking for is some consistent principle of a way of saying this is what the united states is trying to accomplish the problem that i see and i guess you could call it hypocrisy or contradiction is that we have seen the results of this with jimmy carter jimmy carter's foreign policy mostly consisted of scolding countries that he thought didn't live up to the standards that the united states actually really didn't support itself because there were a bunch of puppet regimes around the world that we supported to try to prevent the country from going communist now we schooled countries for not having elections but we also prop up the gives dictators in the hopes that they will not become islamic

democracies well the who we have to have some more consistent principle it seems to me then you want to jump in there which would be your formula i'm not sure. i coined the term during the soviet era of friendly tyrants. i guess a self-explanatory we have now from the tyrants again and i'm not a lot of either i sure wish everyone were to come across but i think it is our interests and their interests that there be a stability and playing move slowly and carefully towards as we talked about earlier towards democracy and not rush things and not have revolution and not have islamism i have iranian take over and so forth so i'm ok with with different policies and different countries call to talk with the whole of consistency but that's the reality of making foreign policy especially for a great power ok alone you want to see we've seen the result jimmy. i think as

jimmy carter it so please brought us to the islamic revolution in iran it's very interesting let's go back to the raid was democratic. other people say if you go to new york what i said and i then had the idea is absolutely right on this point that is we going to we came out there for no no should we have necessarily the same exact policy toward every single arab country that is not going to happen again because of the reason that i mentioned earlier what we need to do how are we adhere to two or three principles i did we should be supporting reforms as a general rule we should be insisting that the nine years of violence against peaceful demonstrators and we should also say that we will be rewarding those nations those countries that are going to follow the two of these two principles consistencies in that regard is absolutely necessary as president of america articulated that in a very strong go my goal my goal as i say if you want to speak you use a stick to use it if i may just try you have to use

a stick some time when they don't adhere to as we have done with it with libya has begun to we need to do now in syria and elsewhere that is when they when they when they do these government do not adhere to do to two basic initial two requirements then we're going to have to use a stick if it becomes necessary and i think some time we had a bit too late and using the stick as we are doing say it's a program for with syria michael thank you what about these are military these humanitarian interventions is this setting an example good example of what can happen if if tyrants don't go reforms don't happen because you know there syria on the on the agenda there and this is sending messages through the entire region that if you you know the stick can come out but does that make does that fix things or make things better. well what seems to have happened in libya is were we there's going to be a long term stalemate and the people are worse off than they would be if there were

stability and if there were. maybe even made some cases if there were addicted a dictator so that the principle of nonviolence the principle of moving toward self-determination having us reward those i understand i'm skeptical that we know enough about which side to support we may end up supporting what a group that ends up if they win will just become an islamic dictatorship ok danny let me give you the last word on this for this is daniel the last word let me end. let me end on a humorous note answer an alchemy recently noted in all samples times but you've got nothing to worry about if a bomb threatens you as in iran or. syria you've got a lot to worry about if he doesn't say a word as in the case of libya or that lot so it's a strange it's actually true that when. u.s. president is telling us what's out there i mean sure ok all right gentlemen thank

you very much many thanks my guest today in boston and in new york and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on r.g.p. see you next time and remember crosstalk. mission free cretaceous free lance for charges free. range month free is free. to child free. and free blog template video for your media projects a freebie audio don carty dot com.

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