half of the area is occupied by a nature preserve. where the young generation transit in their ancestors. and where the mysterious city of the deadlocks well come the republic of north to set you russia close up on r.g.p. . regards to you live from moscow on the snow way with the headlines first this hour breaking news a military court in warsaw has acquitted seven polar soldiers over the killing of afghan civilians the accused said over the mortar and gunfire on the village four years ago and what they claimed was an attack on taliban militants six civilians

including a pregnant woman and three children were killed the court ruled there was a lack of evidence to prove your crimes has been committed poland has over a thousand troops in afghanistan as part of nato mission. in other news former bosnian serb general ratko malott it says in the hague to stand trial to more crimes the first hearing scheduled for friday because of friends questions the validity of evidence while there are fears he won't live long enough to see the verdict sixty nine year old melodic is reportedly in poor health having suffered three strokes of. the prime suspect in the case of murdered russian journalist on the political sky is falling to moscow some questioning after being captured in chechnya pretty of course who was shot dead outside her home in moscow more than four years ago. plus driven around the bend millions of unemployed

americans vent their fury at the system keeping them out of work but not keeping the country out of yours even earning the minimum wages the struggle with the likes of mcdonald's only able to hire a tiny handful of every hundred applicants. next peter the bell and his gaston cross talk to abate the ongoing crisis. just. can't. stand. alone when welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle is the chaos being played out in yemen turning the country into a failed state should the international community be reacting to events there and

will the endgame for the regime in yemen result in still another terrorist base that threatens the region and world. came. across not protests in yemen i'm joined by daniel pipes in philadelphia he's an author and director of the middle east forum and in washington we have edmund hull he's a former u.s. ambassador to yemen and he's also author of the book high value target countering al qaeda in yemen all right gentlemen this is crosstalk i mean you can jump in anytime you want mr ambassador if i go to you first here i mean as we go to air here there's a lot of speculation some people say evidence that the leader in yemen is opening the door to al qaeda to make sure he can stay in power in what looks like what most people are saying now is a civil war how would you assess that statement. well al qaeda in the arabian

peninsula was a threat before this current revolution in yemen and it has become more of a threat since it started simply because its operating space in the country has expanded but i doubt the president is intentionally exacerbating that threat he may seek tactical advantage from that but i don't think that he has an interest in opening the door to al qaeda in any case i don't think he's getting any benefit from that and in any case. the challenge remains to get beyond the current impasse and to deal with this threat in the long term ok daniel what do you think about that because this is even if there's. any evidence of this or that is true is that you know we have a leader in yemen that has been a very loyal american ally for a long time and if there's even any hints that he's trying to use this to keep himself in power which his critics are saying that he's doing right now i mean what

does that say about how the u.s. is picking its allies in the region. well i would be a little less strong in my terminology going to a very loyal us ally ok. ok trying to be more details than i can but he is someone who we could work with who was on again off again not not the greatest ally actually and part of that is that many elements in the country don't want us to have a role there don't want to be fighting al qaeda and he's not that strong i mean yemen is a very difficult country to rule and the central government's writ doesn't go very far so he never was great shakes from the american point of view and now he was even less you useful i joined the ambassador in doubting that he actually is complicit with all carter or benefiting from carter but it certainly is an accusation from his opponents that in both john and zinjibar two towns that are now

under islamist rule that he has fomented this has has allowed this to happen i doubt it but that is nonetheless a an important accusation in yemen these days mr ambassador is salo of words a worthy of protection by the united states now is that they would just like to see the backside of him in but still have someone there that would protect american interests in the region after all it does border on saudi arabia. our current terrorism cooperation with yemen has has always extended beyond president salva he was an important part of it but not and essential all mr ambassador you are he said what you already said was so if you're implying that he's in the ones he's in the past tense category now. well i think in terms of ongoing counterterrorism cooperation it's considerably reduced and also in terms of his long term. shelf life when i think he's part of the past not its future it's interesting

daniel pipes i mean in looking at this and i guess we could ask the ambassador because he probably knows far more about it because having been on the ground but i mean yemen is a very very difficult place to rule because there's so many different variations right there do you see there's a possibility and seller says this and so do you know if this continues we could see another libya scenario where the country becomes partitioned in not just in two parts but in more parts and then what do you think the likelihood of that is. rather than expect partition or i would say anarchy and you would see that no central government has control over the countries are ready or in fact some of the case that would be all the more the case more the somali or the afghan or the lebanese since nobody will say what's so remarkable in the yemeni case is how many opponents the central government i count some of them like a number of them if you like but it's so many it is very hard to see. all or will

remain in power mr ambassador i mean that there is given u.s. interest in the region they wouldn't want the united states does not want to see chaos in yemen for a very long i mean what kind of role can the united states and i would stress positive in this case a positive role now given the obama administration's at least new wants to approach maybe not a radical change but what is the united states going to be doing now looking is this country falls into absolute chaos i would agree with daniel i mean there are so many different elements right there how does the how does a country like the united states would like to have a relationship with them and how do they decide now how to how to proceed maybe the best procedure is to stand back for a while. no i think that would be a serious mistake first of all i would emphasize that it's much more than u.s. interests at stake here there are very significant regional interests first and foremost saudi arabia and you've seen that because the gulf cooperation council has

been engaged in trying to work a solution to this but beyond that there are international interests what we see here is is in some ways reminiscent of the situation that was developing in afghanistan pre nine eleven where the international community as a whole was threatened by increasing safe haven. now you know what we do about that is another matter but i think we have to be active. take the initiative and i would suggest that you've got three forces at play here you've got forces within you and there are significant not only the protesters in the street but generally lawson and the other tribe leaders of the tribes so there are there are very strong forces inside yemen moving toward change you have the regional forces the gulf cooperation council which have a great deal of influence and then i think the international community needs to step forward and needs to step forward in a much more purpose for way than it has been now can you i mean if we look at the

influence of the gulf countries i mean i lost count how many deals with so i was given what four already now and he's not walked away from each one of them i mean what can the region do and i would like to point out that saudi arabia does acts very harshly and specifically when it sees its interests. comes to mind of course i mean do you see that saudi arabia would be emboldened to do to pick a side in to be even actively getting involved on the ground. well the saudis have been and will there's the how the rebellion which has been going on and particularly two years ago in august of two thousand and nine the saudis sent the forces into yemen and back and i think sixty's they did they were full fledged participants in a war which egypt and all of the nasr was in on the side so yes there's a history of saudi involvement in yemen in particular military history the final so far the final g.c.c.

offer was turned down by solid on the twenty second of may just over a week ago and it doesn't look like the diplomacy is going very much further and by the way it didn't look like that was going to solve very much because what it foresaw was sort of stepping down that is vice president taking over for a month and then having a very unwieldy and unlikely group of islamists and socialists and nasr right some tribesmen coming in but it also saluted a number of important actors such as the house the rebel rebels and the tribal leaders and the youth. who are who started the whole thing in january so it was imperfect at best and i'm not quite sure that that much was lost by its insurrection bus on the interim mr mansour salim were to step down let's say hypothetically eskom had just been there go right ahead yeah i'd like. yemen is not bothering ok and that's saudi intervention all about i mean in yemen i think

would be a disaster any arab country. generally any country that's tried to intervene military really in yemen has lived to regret it certainly the injections good and the saudi intervention these are the other who think it was on the side of solid it wasn't against saddam but where the saudis have influences with the pocket book a great deal of resources flow from saudi arabia into yemen and there are recent indications that the. saudis are using that as a significant lever. i'm a little bit more positive on the g.c.c. initiative also then. mr pipes i think it was a well designed effort i think it got for i think developments in the region really complicated because when you started to see what was happening in egypt with osama boric i think president saleh got cold feet and

really question whether or not he wanted to give his state over and i also think he was motivated in saying developments in places like libya and syria where dictators have held on to power through military force so it's it's a larger regional phenomenon. i mean if we take this on board here. no matter what happens the president steps down now it's going to be just absolute chaos there i mean which way could he go and i mean there are other people there but i know there are some people who are very concerned that it could we could see al qaeda really get a foothold that's how i introduce this program is that it would be a threat to the region and beyond how how serious do you think that is because we know that there's we know al qaeda is already there we've established are going at . so it was that an i would take it as an assumption that ali abdullah saleh will not be the head of state in yemen for much longer i think he's finished i would put him in the past case there are different sorts of islamist in

particular there's the islam movement which has become a political movement and then there's the what we talked about the house the rebellion which was shiite and then there's all kind of which is sunny all of them with a different ideology with a different perspective oppressed different personnel competing in ways cooperating in other ways. but there are serious forces in yemen that wish to see a cough of young men from the west not cooperate with the west not be part of the international system but rather as an afghanistan a decade ago create an islamic emirate that tell you we will continue on this point well after a short break and after that show break we'll continue our discussion on yemen stay with our.

they live not only next to the border of the council. but also on the border of peace and war. they are responsible not only for themselves. but also for their loved ones. they are ready to take any risk. to the streets. twenty years ago the largest country in the.

sleeves have been trying. to speak energy. where did it take to. kick. start. the. welcome back across the computor a little to remind you we're discussing yemen's possible futures. q. ok mr ambassador and we've been talking about yemen specifically but let's broaden it out and see what the international community possibly can do i like that because we have a intervention going on in libya right now because it's at the very very least it's very very messy. and then make people go much further and say this is a stalemate this is a partition and that we have really nothing good has come of bizarre intervention

so with that in mind what can the international community do i mean are interventions off the table now or is are going to be turning into the flavor of every single month as we go forward in the in the arab awakening. well an armed intervention in yemen would be a terrible mistake. that would be even more problematic than libya so that is not the way to go in my opinion however i think what you need to do is construct some positive exit from the current impasse it can't be all negative it can't be all sanctions and it certainly can't be passivity watching the country to spiral down in a death spiral but yemen does have a political culture. that is surprisingly positive they've had several elections that have been deemed generally free and fair by the

international community in two thousand and three two thousand and six the presidential election was contested then. it has a political infrastructure that includes functioning parties including an islamic party that is more reminiscent of a turkish islamic party than a radical one so you have material to work with and my thinking in my opinion what the international community should do perhaps in the united nations is to come up with some kind of a an exit strategy from the impasse that may involve some sticks sanctions but also in borrow some carrots building falling yemen's tradition of politics traditions of elections but with a more robust regional and international involvement in that to make that path forward more credible and mr ambassador i can stay with you on this point but how do you get rid of salo argue no because that seems to me that that's theory has to

happen for this for your scenario to work out i mean if you you know get rid of him let me quote unquote and i'll let my audience decide what that means. well i think you start working more on what comes after sol you don't focus all of your attention on just getting rid of saddam because as you shape what comes afterwards you grease the skids for his exit. and beyond that what you have to do is to continue to narrow that base of support and it's already narrowed very dramatically most dramatically when general allen lesson. left him and i think you have to create a situation where his current supporters can choose they have to choose between him in the past and the future again then as it seems all they would where their interests are better served daniel if i can go to you i mean i want to stay with the international community but let's go back to yemen real quickly i mean the

current leader is what ignites all of these protests i mean if you were suddenly to disappear do you see that civil society is political society is strong enough as the embassador is pointed out to do to you really wind down the violence and actually sit down and have elections and have a civil dialogue because it is the longer this violence continues to that seems more unlikely that would be. know i'm more pessimistic than mr hall on two points first i think that there is no basis for common vision beyond getting rid of the current regime. everybody agrees on that a lot of people ground that they don't agree what comes next they're competing visions and i don't see any serious chance that they can come together and work. combined on our joint future secondly i don't think that we in the west have any substantial friends in yemen and mr hall referred to a turkish stalinist lama's party well they're no friends of ours they've turned

into quite a hostile them and i don't think we have a base there so where's he would try and construct a apology that is that we can work with i think it's probably wiser to preempt and say that this is a state whose population is hostile and therefore we should put it on notice you have it detained i think it can i just mean it's just coming out of the can i can interject i mean sala is because he is perceived as an american ally doesn't that create the anxiety in the in the dislike of the united states in the west just by the very fact that he's been restored out of the marriage thirty thirty thirty three years he's been in power and basically being called a friend by the united states maybe not the best friend but a friend. around that probably was not a wise thing to do but he wasn't as i tried to stop with the earlier really an ally he was someone we could work with i don't know more than mubarak was and i like these people can't work with we have no shared. values or vision with them the

saudis the same thing would go so my and my view would be more negative let's let's put this the yemeni leadership whatever it might be in the future on may on notice that if we get any any hostilities from there we will make it painful for them if there are no hostilities then we will work with them and by the way this is a country that is and is it at the point of near collapse there are such problems with water with the economy that are extreme and i don't think i don't think that putting money is going to solve that i think we need to protect ourselves from the potential dangers and i might conclude by saying that i've never in my life but on a program television program before the discuss yemen yemen was obscure and it is in one way a sad development that we have to talk about yemen and yet it is an important new development yemen is part of the problem today mr ambassador you were prime minister would you like to read i go ahead please do. yeah there are first of all

pessimism is not a policy i mean it's pretty easy to especially with yemen to wring our hands and say downsides are all greater than the upsides we're still it's imperative upon us to develop an approach and i would argue an approach with the international community and the second thing is shared visions and values that are great if you can get there and i mean that wonderful having great britain but the fact of the matter is in my experience as a diplomat what you really work upon are shared interests and it's thankfully al qaeda does provide us a shared interest not only with the un but many of the states of the middle east and it will continue to provide. a shared interest in that regard and we just have to be adept enough diplomatically to build on that shared interest either bilaterally with yemen i'm talking about silos yemen or a posada yemen and internationally with the russians the chinese the europeans and

more broadly this is our basis. if i could say with you mr ambassador it let's let's say that is that the the u.s. and its western allies would he would support any leader in yemen they would take on al qaeda in a serious way do you think that's a good idea what if that backfire on the united states and the west go ahead. i don't think that's true i don't think it's any one gets our support i think we can be more demanding that this is the yemeni is going against al qaeda is not a favor of us it is threatening yemen. it is a shared interest that we have so it's not a something that they can use the black we are us but our interest in yemen should be much broader than just the kind it should be yemen's development it should be the political political stability there if we have a narrow approach i think we're doomed to failure and i think you can go back

historically and ask what i do in my book and show from your one tool for when we had a broad sustained approach that it would not only targeted al qaeda but also supported yemeni political and economic development that is when we need our major gains against al qaeda and actually severely degraded its leaders in its ranks and in all four they constituted a negligible threat to the united states and the international community daniel pipes of anger you let's let's really be optimistic super optimistic right now let's say let's say their minds our leaves everyone says a very tough fight and we can sit down we can talk we have civil society political society and actually get some kind of reform there but i think all three of us in this program with respect within saudi arabia be really upset about that and we're contagions you know going to bahrain.

well of course it depends what it's going to look like but i would say no the saudis would probably be concerned if yemen goes back to its usual quiet what the actual internal rangelands are within yemen what role the zionists have of what role the shoppers have. the south in the north various tribal configurations the hotshots in the book wills that really is not terribly important for the saudis if it were quiet the saudis would probably be quite happy mr ambassador if i can ask you it's brought in now for the what was i guess can override a go right ahead that's what this program's all that's what this program's all about go right ahead. yeah but i i think it would be shortsighted on the saudis part if they just had a had a low goal of stability and that was as far as it went because it's not sustainable in the long run the economic pressures the increasing water supply the increasing

gas and oil the growing populations mean that for a long term stability on the arabian peninsula you need yemen that is more integrated with the rest of the arabian peninsula and i don't mean integrated politically because the g.c.c. is a club of monarchs and they're not going to accept a republic but i mean economically you've got to address the economic needs of young men not with charities but with things like finding work opportunities in a labor starved gold for a and they were rich young men and you got to look at those natural complementarities between yemen and and its neighbors and build something positive on those complementarities all right jen the overall run out of time and we're all going to keep our eye on yemen just because what you just heard there are many thanks my guess would be in philadelphia and washington and

thanks to our viewers for watching us here on our feet so you next time remember across talkers.

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