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follow him and welcome in rostock computor all about africa and the new great game outside interest in this continent is immense rich in natural resources and a growing middle class china the us europe and other powers are scrambling for influence and wealth there can africa avoid another wave of imperialism and neocolonialism. rostock the future of africa i'm joined by robert gaston london he's a business editor at the economist and author of the book the shackled continent africa past present and future in washington we cross to jendayi frazer she's a professor at the carnegie mellon university and in oxford we have produced manji he's editor in chief of the tangos who can news all right this is cross lady and

gentlemen that means you can jump in anytime you want and i know they have difference of opinion so i want my viewers to see it. if i go to you first in oxford i do like to go the term africa in the new great game the scramble for influence because a lot of people are saying this right now as africa is stepping up its development some countries are getting ahead while some are not but nonetheless is enormous foreign interest and i'm thinking of the united states and china do you like the term great game well i think oh well i think there's been an enormous interest in africa since about the one nine hundred eighty s. with the introduction of the neo liberal policies of the international monetary fund and world bank ever since then i think the situation in africa has become in which which essentially we have not a neo colonialism with a new colonialism what we have is essentially occupied territories territories occupied by the logic. operations supported by the international financial institutions and the aid agencies and so what they are there to do

is to reap is much benefits as they can avoid as much tax as they can and profiteer. the price that is paid by most africans is massive dispossession of their land massive unemployment massive decline in in in in standard of living and more hungry people than there ever were that's the situation with which africa currently face now clearly there are competitions between the different international powers for africa's natural resources. and what is missing out of that element is the voice of the african citizens about what they need it's all very well having investments in africa but if the country or the people of the country don't benefit from it then it's no real no good to anyone ok those shareholders ok jeff i go to you in washington am i would you agree with that

assessment and a new occupation not even using the term neo colonialism not imperialism occupation go ahead. well of course not i don't agree with the. portrayal of africa at all i think that in fact we've seen a new dynamism significant growth in these economies a rising middle class african civil society has grown has been more active it's holding its government leaders accountable to a larger degree so i think that the projection of africa especially over the last decade has been nothing but positive there obviously are areas in which we have you know backtracking zimbabwe would be one case in point but overall i don't think it's a picture that can be simply reduced to an economic argument you know there's been dynamism on the political front on the civil society front on economic engagement the rise of our trip to north the rise of the middle class and that all speaks to.

more complex picture than one that is reduced to economic ok robert if i can go to you in london where you. progress are backtracking. growing economies growing in japan and so our occupation is we heard earlier in the program. well i really can't think of any african country that is being occupied by corporations and i've traveled all over the continent and it seems to me that one or two places where nobody's in charge like somalia pretty much everywhere else the governments are in charge like they are in most other countries now many of those governments are very inefficient governments but by and large they've gotten a lot better over the past twenty years and when the dealings between corporations and african governments it's absolutely the african governments who call the shots if you go to somewhere like angola it doesn't matter whether you're an american oil company a british one or a chinese one you have to deal with the angolan government nobody disputes that

they only oil that if you annoy them they kick you out as has happened to people for from both sides and so they're striking the balkans now. jendayi frazer point i think a lot of things have gotten better in the past ten years we've seen inflation has come down average incomes have gone up and while it's maybe a bit premature to say that there's this massive new african middle classes i think the the world bank and recently they're talking about a rise in the number of people who are earning between two and four dollars a day which is you know it's better than it was put it's still not what you'd call middle class in most places so i think it's a much more subtle and nuanced thing than that it's going on. at what rose suggests i think the idea that corporations are conquering the place is a bit of a caricature ok if it looks like it's true against one here you want to defend yourself go ahead. no problem in america i mean. you know

well let me smitty say my words but the reality is that there is massive amount of learn graham there's more learned of this mess across africa than there ever has be there's more hunger in africa than is ever be there's more unemployment than there's ever. ever been more importantly it's not just those physical resources that people have been dispossessed stop but the reality of the last thirty years in africa has been that increasingly our governments are more accountable to the international financial institutions the defense of the befits that the need is beneath his carnitas of the world and they are no more cold to bush to the international agencies than they are to citizens now i don't call that democracy what i see that has is this and the company led to the dispossession of their material livelihoods has been the dispossession of their political.

gains of independence and i think you know it's all very well saying there's been huge growth rates but who is benefiting from those growth from those growth rates in fact the division between the rich and the poor has actually increased dramatically over the last thirty years and as for the world bank and their apologists who talk about you know the middle classes beginning with two dollars a day a pound a day have you tried living in nairobi on a pound a day these guys are if they think this is the middle class is there must be be on some other planet i'm afraid ok then if i don't go to you i mean there's a there's a lot of talk about foreign investment in africa and the chinese have gone there in an amazing super amazing way and there's a one estimate by the year twenty twenty though the chinese will have over over two trillion dollars in investment there the united states will have approximately

three hundred billion dollars i mean this is when i get to that will determine a great game i mean the the chinese see this is a very very interesting place to invest because there's a lot of baggage that they have to carry when they deal with the african leaders there's very little same say the values gap it is always bench in between maybe like united states and china so. because i think there's a lot of things that western countries that deny people on the ground certain rights so what do you think about that i mean i would use it easier for their africans to borrow money from the chinese than from the west because of the baggage well i do think that the chinese have made a focused effort to invest in africa to increase their trade with africa mainly because they need to natural resources a fuel growth back home that is given african countries more options because they don't simply have to rely on the west and the conditionality that often comes with western assistance and with western loans and so i do think that there is in that

sense it's a better environment for africa in terms of the choices that they have but i would also say that there i do agree that there is a bit of a value scalp in that some would ask whether china you know there's the policy of not interference in the affairs of african countries some would say that that's not an interest in the welfare of african people and i don't want to make it seem like the west is great and china as you know doing bad things in africa that's not true it's more complex you know the west the united states and western european countries have a terrible history in africa in terms of some of the cold war policies and certainly the period of colonialism before that but there is this sense of which the west at least is more aligned it seems with civil society in african countries today then china has been you can see that of course in sudan you can also see that

when the chinese were trying to export weapons into zimbabwe and civil society and workers in angola in south africa refused to offload those weapons going into zimbabwe and so it is there is a sense to which the west is more aligned with. the democratic course is in africa ok robert if i could go to you you know i'm not sure that that's not really that's really you could allow or to get away with that i mean just look at the downfall of mubarak and ben ali in egypt and tunisia respectively i mean those people who were funded to the hilt by the western governments these were despotic regimes with with a strong military and they've been overthrown not by civil society not by these these these new new missionaries of development the ngos but rather by a mass uprising and it hasn't been confined only to egypt in tunis here we've had

libya we've had carbone been in brooklyn alphonso swaziland ethiopia uganda and so on even in south africa the recent south african police report demonstrated that they they recorded over five thousand murders uprisings in south africa per year over the last three years now that is an indication of the degree of opposition of of citizens not just of not just civil society or people are losing the ramsgate real no solution more chrissy ok brother just before we go to the break robert before we go to break i had. south africa's a democracy the government there is chosen by the people in free and fair elections not yet a lot of people who are locally upset with local corruption and things like that but they are you know that's like another egypt waiting for something to be able to the clerk i didn't say i'd already answered this juncture i'm going to jump in we're going to go to a break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the future

about a state party. started . it's just so. fast for.

kick. start. welcome back across a guy people about to remind you we're talking about africa and its future. can still say. ok and robert i want to go back to you in london right before we went to the break we were down there i discussion flared up about the values capital of the people is that the term that some people like to use i mean it's been brought up that you know the west likes to say that it likes separately to support democracy and civil society no i've already

heard on this program the west is really back some some very vicious very vicious the dictators have been overthrown lately so i you know one has to wonder or an award or understand why african countries will look to china because there are no strings attached or very few strings attached go ahead. i mean the west baggs democracies but it's not always the top priority and certainly if you're talking in the middle east where you have the issues of oil and you have the issues of israel it tends not to be the top priority quite often stability is preferred china is the . democracy anywhere and you wouldn't really expect them to i think the important point though is that when you have both western companies and chinese companies both western governments and the chinese government competing for influence in africa that puts power with the african government because they can play the two off against each other and they can say to western firms if you don't offer better deals maybe the chinese will and they can do the same to the chinese and that's

what they're doing you see them doing it in a number of countries in angola and sometimes you see you know the chinese think that they've got something sewn up like they will back a dictator like basheer in sudan and i think that will give them permanent access to the oil wealth there and then suddenly some violence and arms splits in half and they're finding they very rapidly having to make friends with the enemies of the guy they've been propping up so they're running into the same kinds of problems that that western government because it's interesting to me going back to point you made earlier maybe we can all agree with robert that it's the people on the ground that suffer the most. well in indeed and what i was saying about the uprisings that have been happening across the continent is a reflection of the discontent that is brewing and great and increasing across the continent but looking at china i mean i think you know people are often rather silly exaggerated about about the actions of china if you look at foreign direct

investment the united kingdom and usa are the leading foreign direct investment investment in in the in in africa followed behind by by france and by germany and all the asian tigers put together are still much smaller proportion of what germany germany's foreign direct investment is so you know i think and that's not because they're nice it's because they came to the show late they already all the oil fields all the mineral resources were already taken by the time china was ready to come into africa so they are being very smart in in the in offering all kinds of deals and offering offering loans which can be repaid in commodities and so on so they're being very smart about what what what it is but i'm i'm less convinced i mean i think the point is quite right that robert makes a bet that there is a room for negotiation but i'm surprised at how few african governments have

actually use that leverage in negotiating i think on goal or certainly certainly has one or two other countries might but it in general it does not mean the case and in fact they are strongly dissuaded from that doing so by by their alliance with the with the big corporations and they're there and the u.s. and european governments as well as the japanese government agenda if i go to you in washington it's very interesting point if you are out do african governments have enough leverage actually to be able to to go she to deal to their advantage or are they continuously continuously at a disadvantage when it comes piece of beef for investors i mean east or west. well african governments have tremendous leverage to negotiate obviously they are in control of their countries and their resources i don't think they'd be corporations control everything and i think that the sort of broad brush picture that's being painted is in correct of africa africans and african governments as victims of some

system that's external to them they have responsibility they are making deals certainly there is it is true that i think the international financial institutions have tremendous away in these countries on the world bank and i.m.f. but to degree that they get their macro economic performance in place to the degree that they're more responsive to their own citizens into their own population that gives them the leverage with all sides extra loyal to the continent so i don't see african governments african leaders or african people and citizens as somehow victimized by the international system i think that they are fully in charge and can play this game balance in our interests balancing of interests. that you know they have tremendous leverage that they could utilize if they would do so ok robert if i go to you if you were an african leader and you wanted to get foreign investment needed money would you go to the i.m.f.

or would you go to the chinese which would you prefer if you put yourself in the position of being an african leader well enough to foreign investment they are a match for rescues ok let's say where you are rescued as you are rescue ok rescue by the chinese say they can go in dollars and the economy ask no questions. but i think what you would do is you would say what's the problem we're looking at if the problem is you want lots of people to come and do business in your country then you would pick either or you'd say we're open for business for both chinese and the americans and anyone else who wants to come through and that they have by by the law and the basic minimum standards and they're always going to be occasions where that doesn't happen and in most african countries south of congo you'll find that chinese sentiment is a pretty big political factor now that's not because they're the most influential it's because they knew i mean chinese investment in africa was almost nothing

fifteen years ago and now it's about one hundred twenty billion dollars a year so it's just suddenly happen really quickly and with it there's come a very large number of chinese people into africa we don't really know how many but it's certainly in the tens of thousands probably in the hundreds of thousands and there is a guy at the african development bank said put more chinese people have come to africa in the past ten years than europeans had in the past four hundred years so this is a big change and it's a very business it's something to lose yourself to your i was going to just have to go to a place like just look at a place like nairobi in kenya where i come from there are more was more and more white europeans and americans sitting there making a buck today than there have been in any time in history and that's true all over africa in fact that doesn't call it free loaders actually. the chinese are tiny in proportion to that and you don't see the scale of of

s.u.v.s or four wheel drives and so on that you see in the cities of of africa which are all western in fact. you could see them through the nature of what is what is happening in africa everyone says that you know it's open for business. but if it's open for business who benefits from that most of the profits made by these companies who are investing in africa are exported many of these companies and there's been recent reports by the tax justice network which have demonstrated that that huge you molds people you it deeply he talks about twenty three billion dollars over the last you're being being siphoned out illegally from from africa from all kinds of tax evasion schemes like offshore banks and so on i mean the scale of that is going on is unprecedented ultimately it has

a lot of crap going on but you seem to be under the illusion that the most important thing that a business does for a country is to make profits there and leave them there i mean that's that's not what they do it all and it cost a bit but if you're looking at the whole example that little bit different helping made boy mobile phone companies in africa is completely transformed the way there but africans communicate with each other and the way that they do business with each other and if you look even at you know completely the traders who are not even slightly interested in the welfare of africans may still do a great deal of benefit. for example since a lot of food chinese traders came into them over into the markets there the price of things like that of chicken a whole of these are these are series one of the does are really going to generally have the new benefit to the people you know i want to ask a question we welcome gentlemen gentlemen please please make sure everyone's in here good there seems to be two different points of view here africa is exploited

now more than ever before or on the other side of the ledger it's actually speaking it's getting its act together in making progress where do you stand in the between these two schools of this program. i certainly agree that is getting its act together and it's making more progress that said i do think that part of their progress has to. b. to increase the number of jobs to reduce the income gap between the very wealthy and the very poor or to actually make agriculture benefit the farmers and the population as a whole rather than export the food externally i mean giving the large tracts of land to external companies or governments so they can export food to their population so i think that it's a very complex picture but what i the bottom line is that africans are more in charge of setting the agenda and africa they have the rules they are responsive

more responsive to their populations traders in africa do not want to compete with chinese workers and so they are holding their governments to account businessmen and africa do not want to compete with bad deals given to chinese companies or even western companies that are very opaque so they're pushing for greater transparency and that's because there's a dynamism within africa in populations and civil society in subsaharan africa in particular i agree that north africa stability was more of a priority i've always said that there was no democratization and that's why north africa has collapsed so significantly you do not see mass uprisings across africa what you do see is populations demonstrating with in the framework framework of a greater rule of law and greater democratization it's not one hundred percent but it's certainly more than it was ten years ago and so i'm on the side of more progress but the view last more last ten seconds is that these are good and well

planets. that she's living on but the realities of poor people in africa go to more hungry people or more london's people whose great unemployment that's the sum total of the achievement of course thank you very much. i mean we've run out of time many thanks to my guest today in oxford washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are he seen x. times. remember crosstalk roles. to play in the company. wealthy british.

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