three. months three. three stooges free. lunches videos for your media project a free media gun tard t.v. dot com. here with archie live from moscow the headlines a ten year old child was pulled from the rafters of the plane crash in northwest russia has died in hospital that brings the number of those killed in the incident to forty five the news comes as aviation experts examined black box recorders from the passenger jet exploded into flames in the republic of korea. the greek government survives a critical vote of confidence in its austerity drive amid furious protests and that

the will of the people in spain ignores the parliament must now decide whether to impose austerity measures worth billions of euro in order to secure a second e.u. bailout. and former soviet republics more in the twenty seven million victims killed in the fight against hitler said troops hundreds day seventy years ago the nazi invasion of the soviet union and unleashed the bloodiest conflict in history became known as the great patriotic war. thanks peter the valid his cross talk gas debate whether popular uprisings will actually bring democracy to the arab world. in. a low in a welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle from spring to fall the uprisings in at

least three arab states are fast becoming vicious civil wars is the arab awakening less about democracy promotion and more against a stifling status quo and police states and what are the chances the arab awakening will be hijacked by new strongman and get taken. in. the past not the uprisings in the arab world i'm joined by david price jones and florence he is senior editor of the national review and author of treason of the heart from thomas paine the kim philby in washington we have omar baddoor he is a political scientist and human rights activist and in austin we cross to alan cooperman he's an associate professor at the l.b.j. school of public affairs of the university of texas all right gentlemen this is cross talk and i mean cross talk rules and take you can jump in anytime you want if i could go to david first in florence is the is the arab awakening as it's being called turning into an arab nightmare as i started out the program three of these

countries that are undergoing. social strife it's turning into a vicious civil war and democracy seems to be more of a distant ideal if it ever was. there are two sorts of people involved in this there are the people who want power and the people who want freedom and for the moment the people who want a gaining ground with the people who want freedom and the people who want to have a lot of very unpleasant characteristics going for the crew brutal people and they hold on to power and they're not going to give it up and we see in one country after another that the people who want to. have quite different character from the people who want freedom and the people who want freedom are not characteristic thugs and brutes they're standing up for themselves and for human rights and for a decent society so things are not going to well but i believe everything will and what happens in syria it's

a standing example of how the people who want power are winning over the people who want freedom again is not yet over in syria ok a more in washington how would you react to that there is it is it that is it a simple dichotomy like a head. i honestly so it would i think it would be perfectly legitimate to say that there has been a shift in mood i mean after the fall of mubarak regime was so central to the old order in the middle east that its fall created this would be for you and i think hyper optimism and it would be perfectly legitimate to say that the world has changed significantly after the protracted cluster mess to put it politely in libya and bahrain in syria and yemen. i think people are just simply more grounded in reality now about the kind of cost it's going to take and time and blood to see this transformation through but i still think that the general outlook is still positive for me the story in syria is not so much the fact that there is this brutality protracted brutality taking place as much as it is that people are still

taking to the streets the spite of it that far in so i think the cat is out of the bag people have lost their fear this is the moment for the middle east to change and i don't think that anything can stop it i think we're different regimes will be able to employ different tactics to delay that transformation they can use brutality they can use drives they can use. exploits ethnic fears and what have you and things of that sort and blame foreign agents and that will buy them some time in the meantime but i think they will not be able to stop the transformation generally speaking anybody who expected this to be quick and painless simply either doesn't understand how change occurs generally or does not understand the complexities of the middle ok alan if i go to you in austin last time you on the program we were discussing libya any of you might want to jump in mention that also on this program here is the rebels there and now with challenge with protracted civil war in libya is it all about democracy is or is it just about get rid of could in the khadafi family and it's it has less to do with democracy than just gaining power. well i think peter there was a terrible naive

a tape at the beginning of this arab spring in the rest of the international community and they sort of sort of saw this fairy tale where all the people were united against an evil dictator and peacefully they would overthrow the dictator and then we would have jeffersonian democracy and there were a lot of problems with that from the start first of all it's very very different in a country that's divided along sectarian lines ethnic lines clan lines tribal lines in that sort of country where you get an attempted overthrow what you get is an ethnic civil war similarly it's our second it's different with or it's a peaceful uprising or a violent uprising in a violent uprising you're going to get a terribly brutal response from the government as we've seen in libya and third of all not all the folks even the peaceful folks wanted to establish a jeffersonian democracy some of them were islamic radicals and just wanted to

establish an islamic state if there was going to be a vote it was going to be one man one vote one time so i'm not surprised that this arab spring is turning into a very hot arab summer and we're not seeing democracy and i do not share the optimism of one or both of your of my of my colleagues today i think that this is going to be bad for the people of those countries and i think it's going to be certainly bad for the american national interest david if i can go to you is it really is i'm surprised to find my thought go ahead jump in stride as a not surprised to find myself described as an optimist after what i said i think part of the problem is that the people who want freedom want it but then i do achieve it and that's not very optimistic if there was a civic society if there were parties if there were genuine representatives if there was some form of real electoral system whereby you could. have have representation and. accountability but there's no. these things what you actually

have is a lot of good feeling on the street but there's no way to institutionalize that good feeling and therefore i wonder really how thinks it's going to happen i want to know that that was alan but omar if i can go to you isn't this really just about learning curves here in political technologies because ruling regimes that are oppressive they just learned how to deal with crowds more and how to deal with social networking i mean they're learning they're shown an amazing learning curve i'm not going to say they're going to win but they've learned how to deal with social dissent and protesting and all forms of protesting and then the other side is you have protesters that are learning new techniques also to challenge authority so again we're taking a lot of these really neutral ideas out of the equation and it's all about power how do you keep it or how to gain it yeah i think that certainly there was a learning curve i think in tunisia and egypt governments were totally taken by surprise what had happened and put them out of this about it in terms of how to react to it and that's where i think you saw the most significant transformation i think other governments looking at this are learning the lessons they're trying to

avoid getting stuck in the same situation which is why the resistance is going to be more significant and again how can you expect them not to resist to the extent that they are i mean their backs are against the wall they see this wave of change they've been frozen in time they've had absolute power for many decades that yes of course they're going to resist it to the extent that they have but i still don't think that this will. hoped the arab spring so to speak i still think that people have genuinely lost their fear of their governments i mean i think this is for the first time that the equation has actually shifted where the governments are the ones who are actually afraid of their people people i think on a very personal level are fed up with unaccountability are fed up with the kind of lives they're living where there's very little political freedom and in the broader sense they look at the rest of the world will be in florida and they are refusing to continue being left behind and i think that that movement that moment in history is not the kind of thing that these governments will ultimately be able to thwart and i just want to emphasize one thing when we say that this will ultimately be

successful this does not mean that every last autocrat is going to be unseated i mean you're talking i think it was the including that put it yesterday in the televised debate this way he said there is going to be a menu of change but in some places like in egypt you saw the decapitation of the regime and you're seeing a more significant transformation from there and other places just going to be very substantive substantial reform that alters the way the country is run so i think the way to generally speaking is that what you're seeing is a transition from people of the region being subjects to becoming citizens of their states and i think that that's transformation is going to that's again that sort of sounds like a fairy tale to me peter i'm going to it's going to be a very happy ending or a sort of happy ending and in fact in some places you're seeing very unhappy middles and probably even less happy endings so in in syria we see you know a thousand people killed so far in libya thousands of people killed so far most of them probably after nato intervened in that conflict in yemen we see an incipient

civil war involving grain we see an uprising that was really an ethnic uprising which he had absolutely brutally crushed with intervention from saudi arabia so i don't really understand where omar is seeing all of these very happy or sort of happy endings we're seeing repression we're seeing increased ethnic hostility and look of course i would love. to see democratization in countries that want to be democracies but the question is how you get there and you don't get there as the u.s. and nato have done it in libya by intervening militarily and you don't there and get there as some folks have tried by trying to get revolutions overnight an ethnically divided society in bahrain the sunni power holders are not going to give power up overnight to the shiites and similarly in syria the allies are no you're saying all right nobody suggested so any anybody who had all of that i mean it was really neat about how change happens there but that i wouldn't have

a resident obama gets up and says that and says that more market off he has to step down and leave power and now you get these calls people are saying the same thing in syria that assad has to step down and leave power it's just not going to happen if you insist on that they will they will fight to the very last man ok david i want you to jump in we wouldn't. i wouldn't call i wouldn't call egypt a good example of transformation of the way that. proposed it's been another military coup. colleagues and still in power there in sixty percent also the economy that heavily invested in egypt and business and really all they have done this through one of their own team and they've taken over to write a constitution which may or may not make any change it seems to me that all those people who were once protesting and. betrayed they made a lot of noise and it didn't really affect the military regime it's really run by

a party of generals as has been the case in egypt since since the nasa. ok i certainly did not would not want to under play the difficulty you know the sort of like military rule that it's never going to be just right now in the kind of conditions that people are and are living under there's no question that i mean we've seen a significant amount of repression happen after mubarak was was ousted but what i see i think i think it was pressing of us to put it this way this morning in an article where there is the beginning of it yeah there is a beginning of a transition right now and wish there would be meaningful power sharing moving forward that perhaps the military would be in charge of national security gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we have to go to a short break and out about short break we'll continue our discussion on the arab awakening stage starting. to kick. start. the.

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can. still. welcome back across town people about to mind you were talking about the prospects for the arab awakening. ok alan i'd like to go to you and let me switch gears a little bit let's take a look at libya it seems very likely it's only a matter of time that that nato will finally get rid of mr gadhafi in libya and will that be called a success for democracy because it will be nato as a victory quote unquote and not people's in his honor president it should be said about how to bring democracy to the arab world. well i think you're right that if i cut off the leaves that nato will declare this a successful humanitarian intervention

a successful democratization campaign but it doesn't mean that either of those things is true it's my contention and i think it's clear from the facts that this war in libya would have ended months ago if not for the nato intervention and because of the nato intervention people have continued to die by the hundreds in libya and so what that means is that the intervention actually caused more harm than good secondly will it lead to democratization it doesn't appear so libya at this point seems to be divided regionally and along tribal lines and so you've got a pie for catered to libya how are you going to knit those two pieces of the country back together again i don't really know but i would suggest that the best way would be negotiation not through military victories so no i don't think it will in fact be a success for humanitarian intervention or for democratization and certainly not a model for other countries and just to you know more generally on this whole arab spring arab summer thing i think the point is that in many of these countries you

have different factions you have different political factions ethnic factions sectarian factions and the answer therefore is a long term evolution towards power sharing and that's the way to get everything you want people safe democracy progress and my concern is that the position of the international community has been for revolution not evolution he said could die off he has to leave our side has leave saleh has to leave and what you're seeing are the consequences on the street which is incipient civil war or full blown civil war that's not good for democracy that's not good for humanitarianism i go to david in florence here. alan brings up a very good point is that is outside intervention foreign intervention primarily western intervention good for the arab awakening for bringing in the two cities that we all take for granted there after a huge deal colonial project that the west had there for for centuries i mean it is the west playing a positive role that role that positive role or net negative role. well that's

a very good question isn't it i'm not sure how. intervention in libya would have been solved. surely the uprising the took place was in internal affair an internal matter. how would that have been resolved if we let it run i'm not actually in favor of the intervention in libya i think it produces a very strange paradox i'm not don't really understand why it's all right to go and knock off god after you're not all right to go and knock off. the whole it seems to me that military intervention of that sort is not a good idea i wasn't for a drive about the way in serbia i don't think these things produce anything except damage rage frustration they don't need to democracy they can't beat the market for instance the course of a situation is on results and i'm sure the libyan situation is going to be under oath for a long time to come it may be that there's a siren

a. tripolitania split to libya's or something that's all but it has an improvement i see it all the borders are there for some reason. what are we doing about syria. and why are we intervening in libya and on all through question so i'm afraid that i'm going to sit around central question i mean that's a little better not to do it omar jumpin go right ahead i feel look if you're looking for moral consistency you're going to be baffled for a very long time about the different policy and double standards that people employed in reacting to situations of different countries i think the reason why there is no intervention in syria is because if the us had regime is knocked down by force you run a very serious risk of a regional war that ends up involving iran as well and israel as well so you know the stakes are a bit higher over there now just to backtrack a little bit about libya i agree that i mean generally speaking the region is very iffy about the idea of foreign intervention but i don't know how anybody can say

with a straight face that the intervention to stop the gadhafi forces from each in benghazi has ended up causing more deaths than have to let it happen i think there was an emergency situation and while i'm not in favor of intervention generally speaking i mean you're talking about forces where khadafi is basically handing out by ground condoms to his men and they're approaching the city that is sort of like the primary opposition stronghold and what was going to happen there if this was allowed to happen i mean there is no issue really people know how little time to lower their vote on confirmed allegations i knew you would jump in there and you know i go ahead go ahead again i suppose you'll stay with history no one but. everyone you know everyone everyone said that there was going to be this terrible bloodbath in benghazi you know and i traced it down and it turns out it was a spokesmen in switzerland that decided there was going to be a bloodbath and guys he wasn't people in libya who were saying this is the reason why do you think what i think because of his words going to. the people so it's you know human you're

a human rights advocate right human rights watch put out statistics and in two months of fighting in misrata over about two hundred fifty people were killed in two months two hundred fifty people were killed mainly rebels right so that's not a bloodbath that's. the civil war and that's what was going to happen in maine gazi any rebels who are stupid enough to stick around we're going to get killed and most of the rebels were going to flee and the civilians were going to be left harmless khadafi said this and he proved that in misrata he was not targeting civilians he was targeting rebels so this was propaganda and it was it was it was formulated to entice a nato intervention and it worked perfectly and nato was played for suckers and we should stop doing that i'm are you going to i think that is complete nonsense and that's the thing so now we're stuck in a difficult situation where it's unclear what nato is for all to be so we understand that right now we're stuck in this limbo situation and you can say the intervention may have caused it but quite frankly i felt like there was a humanitarian emergency that actually required intervention at the time but that's something i think more broadly speaking we can talk about all these things all the

obstacles that we're seeing as signs that things might not be optimistic but i think the question we ought to be asking ourselves is given a certain level a certain level of degree of uncertainty that we see in the situation is what role can we play as an international community to make sure that things progress in a positive direction that whatever change happens next and that benefiting progressive forces rather than regressive ones i think that's the central question and i think that there are three basic elements that have to be that have to be pushed forward from here on the one hand you can't there cannot be backtracking to the attitudes of the past where our public opinion simply does not matter and we have this sort of. illusory sense of stability that requires us to support our own governments without ever regarding their people in any way i think seeing millions of people rise up for freedom and democracy is a sign that this time has passed and we can no longer backtrack to that kind of thinking on a second level i think it is the international community's job to continue putting pressure on governments that are using violent repression to keep down change from positive change from occurring and third i think is there is

a need to resolve the israeli palestinian conflict as well there has to be a decisive attempt to end the israeli occupation of palestine to end the brutal oppression of palestinians because that has been a tool that is exploited by many governments in the region and on. to thwart change and to distract people from from internal problems well i guess the reason why regimes for example like the syrian regime still has some level of popularity is that they're able to say well look ok maybe we're not very nice to our people but look at our policy toward israel we're standing off. to has to be taken probably if i could go to david i mean what is top of mind you think for western leaders in the political elite is it just a real arrangement of the political order in the arab world to serve western interests ok all right mubarak's gone ok ben ali's gone but we have to find a new mubarak we have to find a new ben ali maybe with a more kind of semi democratic face which makes everyone feel more comfortable but they just want really allies say because it's been proven because brains out there i mean these people protested but no geopolitical interest is what's most important

at the end of the day not ideas talk about the international community makes me uncomfortable there really isn't such a thing there's a lot of different national interests and competition and there's no one track and this talk of intervention also makes me uncomfortable i mean we had imperialism all through the twentieth century and he didn't work it's not a good idea these people have got to solve their problems by themselves and i don't believe that putting pressure for. national interest as the french do in tunisia was the british tried to do in egypt i don't think this is a good idea and i think it's a complete disaster if you try and solve the israeli palestinian. to along those lines they have got the only way it can be done is if they do it together by themselves with the sort of i think intervention there that obama is trying to bring about but you don't have a situation that can result itself you have one party which has control over everything has a monopoly on power and systematically undermining the other people's right to

self-determination there squeezing them into smaller and smaller and we have put this into asian ok i really need an escalator will produce alan i noticed you want to jump in there go ahead. yeah i mean just i mean i think omar's aspirations and his policy prescriptions you know in principle are fine but the problem is again they're so they're overly simplistic he keeps talking about how you know we have to accept what the people of these countries want there isn't one people in these countries in bahrain they are terribly divided between sunni and shiite similarly in syria the terribly divided between kurds sunni alawite and he talks about how we have to give rights and representation to the palestinian people which palestinian people the people who support hamas are the people who support fatah so i mean they're terribly divided if they could unite i take you bet these these situations would probably be solved a lot more quickly i think that's why we see that i mean i think these are several hours tunisia where it seems that people were united right but in these other

countries they're not and so we have to be very very careful about what we ask for we ask for democratic elections in palestine and what did we get we got a hamas victory and that's not good for the palestinian people it's not good for stability and it's not good for the u.s. national interest so we have to be careful that's why i advocate evolution gradual evolution not these revolutions that's what leads to chaos ok i'm i'm going to give you know you are you have the last word go ahead you have you had elections in israel that also produced a right wing coalition government basically is completely incompatible with the idea of resolving the problems of the region or reaching any kind of peace agreement these complexities of all these people are going to be here and there is a way to distract it's a way to distract from the central theme which is that people deserve their freedom i don't care about the division between hamas and fatah and this action and action the occupation has to end there are simple things that we can all agree on regardless of these minor division that people try to distract us with the same thing with arab countries where there are the gentlemen to be here we have run after time and we haven't resolved anything as usual many thanks to my guest today

in florence austin and in washington and thanks to our viewers for watching this here archy see you next time and remember crosstalk. and. you can see. them.

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