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a summary now of our top stories in the weekly you analyse. the new releases the twelve billion euro trunk should wait from last year's bailout packages and imminent greek default there was violence on the streets during the week in response to the austerity plan to dispute the deal and. also hundreds of thousands of public sector workers take part in a one day a national strike across the u.k. over government cuts and wants to slash their pensions and other benefits. also it's going to turn back to the destination for the dollars are demanding our soldiers explain why they are back on board has been banned from leaving greek pulled some while they're going to stay in the dug south south and south for digital date to the enclave on down from the campaign it's. unbelievable to see if

the lines that nature steps up and strikes in morning that it's good for any place any time to find colonel gadhafi is threatening to retaliate against europe unless the lines stop its campaign. as the headlines f.x. dour debate crosstalk was peaceful about on his guests discussing the kurdish question in iraq that the u.s. and other western allies are reducing their presence in that country. ok. welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle as the u.s. starts its military withdrawal from iraq what does faith hold for the kurds is post invasion iraqi administratively and democratically strong enough to keep the country intact and if the kurds strive towards an independent state what is

stopping. you. to cross-talk the fate of the kurds i'm joined by pressure was faisal in washington he's an independent journalist in new york we cross to brendan o'leary he is the louder professor of political science at the university of pennsylvania and his most recent book is how to get out of iraq with the integrity and in london we have sami ramadani he's a senior lecturer in sociology at london metropolitan university all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first let's take a look at a report about the future facing the kurds following the u.s. withdrawal from iraq. eight years after the u.s. led invasion of iraq washington is negotiating its withdrawal from this war torn country is forty six thousand u.s. troops prepare to leave iraq is integrity and fragile democracy are threatened by the brewing animosity between arabs and kurds

a factor that has made questionable the plan of a complete pullout i believe that we should take whatever steps are necessary to make sure that we protect whatever progress we have made there. largely marginalized by iraqi arabs the kurdish minority has long since been vying for a form of independence which given the sweep of the arab spring could now be more possible than ever and if established kurdish state could could potentially entailed the breakup of iraq as well as changing the border of neighboring syria turkey and iran all home to significant kurdish minorities no other place in iraq symbolizes the tension separating baghdad and kurdish leaders more than the province of kirk a source of some twenty percent of iraq's oil reserves has no official legal status iraqi arabs turkmens and kurds who claims to it under article one forty of the iraqi constitution the dispute over who is supposed to be resolved with a referendum we saw no reason why there should be any more.

implementation of article one for three. i think when that happens even other nationalities living in those areas would have a better chance of. having a better security in those areas too because now it's like a gray area no one has full responsibility of doing what is best for the people however the vote has been continuously delayed due to political discord and violence in the region and to date neither arab nor kurdish leaders have been willing to yield their rights to the land currently and entire he was division is deployed to for security in the disputed region and come december thirty first the . u.s. withdrawal could trigger a bloody conflict. in terms of security when the us leaves there will be no independent security force right now the security is from the kurdish side of the city this is the truth when the us leaves things will get worse there will be

conflict arabs will stand up and pray to say with turkey and this will. both wars will begin between the ethnic groups. thank you very much whether or not washington decides to leave behind a contingent of u.s. troops in iraq the kurds have a historic opportunity in their trials to ourselves term and nothing in their history suggests that they will be deterred from pursuing a bid for statehood. for cross-talk r t. ok she wasn't in washington if i can go to you first here as we discerned that report given the circumstances of the withdrawal of the american withdrawal from iraq and what we call the arab spring here what is stopping the kurds from really going for an independent state something that they have strived for for a very long time now and the circumstances to do that are probably better now than ever before what's stopping them. thank you for giving the opportunity to be

under show i think there are a of the reasons that stops the kurds from declaring independence states economic and political geopolitical and and there's not there's not one single reason that says this is the one trees and i think the invasion has helped the kurds have a better. foot step in the political spectrum of the middle east however it hasn't evolved into something that could be the seeds of a state and let's not forget that. the home inside of the kurdistan region is not yet suitable and ready for its statehood there is a spirit there is hope that is and work towards that. all the political pragmatists the leaders know that. declaring

a state right now is not the ultimate. solution to the case that's why they clinching to baghdad that's why they're. the most active negotiators in settling issues that are. infesting baghdad in terms of political process and government formation and security so the kurds for now are considering themselves part of iraq but not for long let's let's speak after the withdrawal of the of the us forces ben and if i can go to you i mean there's a nice saying the appetite comes with the eating and once the americans do leave to what degree i mean the keeping something on the ground most likely irrespective what people white house says or the pentagon says but i mean there's a historic moment right here and we all know that iraq is in political deadlock right now the kurds are kingmakers and if this goes on for much longer the kurds will say you know go ahead guys i mean you figured out we've got oil we have we

have unity for the most part in and the lands of the kurds i mean they have a lot of cards to play right now and i'd like to throw in they the arab spring in the background about self-determination and and creating a better civil society there they have a lot going for them go ahead. the kurdistan regional government is a very secure region it's the best organized part of iraq and it's very important to understand that the kurdish leadership is not planning a bid for independence even if it gets excellent opportunities and that's because kurds know historically that if they seek independence that will invite the negative intervention of the neighboring powers in particular turkey and iran by contrast at this moment the kurds have the ability to reshape iraq they more or less designed its constitution in conjunction with its partners so they have every opportunity to make their influence felt indeed with the departure of the americans they will be the only part of iraq that is reliably pro-american so i would expect

them to use their leverage to ensure that there will be american troops patrolling the disputed territories they'll be working hard to ensure that their recent successful detente with the government of turkey continues and they continue to attract inward investment if the kurds were to take the risk of going for independence that might damage all of the successful inward investment they've made it would also mean that they'd have to devote almost the entirety of their resources to military means and they know they don't want to do that they've come a long way in the last decade they don't want to lose the gains of that last decade sam if i can go to you we heard the word leverage and i think that's probably the most important word when we look at the withdrawal of american troops i mean how much can the kurds get from baghdad ok i mean we they were everyone's watching each other across the the the the so-called border where the kurds the kurdish lands been relatively quiet could sit considering the violence since two thousand and

three what can they get from baghdad and how resistance is bad baghdad going to be and when giving anything. well you say baghdad i mean racket president scared. representatives of the two leading care dish. governing parties leading pows including the foreign minister and so on so they have pretty substantial influence and baghdad and generally iraqi policies the major ones have been decided with the consent or support of the kurdish leadership over the past three or tick union of kurdistan and the k d p the kurdistan democratic party. at this point i would like to take issue with one or two of the premises both in the introduction and maybe implicitly in what brendan are saying as if there is a kind of a new more city or a big historical clash between the care dish people and the ira people i think this

is a myth we've had that oppressive regimes like saddam's regime attacking the care dish people but there hasn't been this historic people against people who tensions or quarrels or fights historically in iraq in fact very people a very few people seem to know that there are about ten million kurdish people in baghdad the capital this is more than more cares than cares in any kurdish area that is that is to. say i think i think you it is not some of no no it is not nonsense to me because the kurdish people where they care to pull advice and the cards i know i know you would like you would like to divide the iraqi people like you're attempting just now but if you let me finish a lot of care of these people are entitled met it with arabs with total commands and so on and there isn't this rigid ethnic demarcation like you might want to

pretend branden historically the kurdish an arab peoples. of common interests joint struggles against. all right for democracy for freedom so the so you have to same time to look visit sammy but the same time of the aspirations of the kurds have been always slowed down if not punished when they do have aspirations brendan you want to reply to that go ahead. i certainly do i think it's it is true that kurds and arabs contain large numbers of people willing to make iraq work as a federation but it is absolute nonsense to deny the historical animosities between arabs and kurds and to deny that successive arab regimes carried out genocide ethnic expulsion and coercive assimilation against large denied hours of. the recent south well. you mention the past and you know i did not do that i'd actually

i let you speak i'd like you to get i'd like you to give me the opportunity to start i dismiss discouraged i. might not distorting what you said i listened carefully. people think that saddam's regime was that there was a large will you let me finish will you that we let me finish please people think wrongly that there's a large kurdish population in baghdad there used to be the faily kurds were expelled from baghdad by saddam's regime if we look at the vote now kurdish parties in and in federal elections it is a minuscule vote surprise and i'm afraid i'm going to interrupt you will let you finish and we come back from the break in this after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the current state with thirty. one.

spending the year in iraq is not a true journalist i've seen the waste go of u.s. contractors there's kind of wasting their time trying to get killed three. zero am. or am. i thought all along the length of the stuff to see about five hundred miles of huge history about twenty seven days in new going to publicize the people invited the more significant lead space these people started the space of a dialogue consists of changing the slowly her way to silence him students. say.

to me. please. just speak. seemed. a safe. i am currently. welcome back to rostock i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the fate of the kurds as the u.s. plans its withdrawal from iraq.

ok brennan that you know i'd like you to finish up what you were saying before the break here i mean there has been historically a lot of animosity and i'd like you know my degree or another we can discuss in this program go right ahead. well what i think is important is to look forward and there are two core difficulties in relations between arabs and kurds as we go forward the first is that many arab politicians in baghdad wish to recentre lies iraq in particular the control over natural resources and that's in flat contradiction with the constitution of iraq of two thousand and five which was deliberately designed to ensure that each part of iraq our provinces as well as kurdish majority areas could govern themselves and develop themselves if that program of the constitution is implemented i think all of the historical animosities between kurds and arabs can be calm and the second difficulty arises as

as was indicated in your program in the areas of the disputed territories those territories are disputed precisely because of past programs of ethnic expulsion carried out largely by saddam's regime but also by previous arab governments not everything done bad by arabs historically was done by saddam or those who were involved as well so the key thing that international policymakers and domestic iraqi citizens have to be focused on is how to ensure those two particular disputes over natural resources and over the disputed territories don't generate further conflict between kurds and arabs i think that can. be done in this year's tour is to follow the conservation jump in the way developments as one engine is not only to not only not only to implement article one forty but to encourage proper power sharing arrangements we can curb governorate sharing arrangements that would include an arabs bird. on the question all share power in this particular area all right sami real quick and then we're going to washington go ahead sure sure i think

trend brendan again is pledging this caddish animosity better is no animosity between the kadosh and out of peoples that we've had that oppressive regimes specialists don't stand by the way led to a bad bet brendan this regime killed more arabs than cared for. information and the nine hundred ninety one uprising chemical weapons and so on he's killed more arabs don't care so to pretend that this was an arab book government just killing kurds as absolutely historically in court act applies to all is a sitting president president of the government damn was denied us and reagan was denied this reason was designed i don't know all this and i. mean here let me just say here let's go to washington go ahead throw in your two cents you're going to be very patient. i think i think it's not over inflated to mention the city among kurds and arabs and has occurred as i have lived in kurdistan during

the invasion i have covered the invasion i have sensed those things myself that is a historical. even if you don't want to call it any mass at the disagreement at this liking. at least from the kurds towards the arabs and of course it's shared by the arabs in a great deal. but they both know the kurds and the arabs both know that they are forced to live in iraq the arabs claim that iraq is their. member of the arab league the kurds believe every individual of them believe that they are forced to be a part of that country and that has created any must be and it's very naive and simple to assume that just because regime like saddam's regime or any previous regimes have have have. caused destruction and

killing of the kurds does not in the minds of the public. give. does not release the general arab population of iraq from those acts to people do not think that the those regimes were. abstract entities that came from the sky and did those i mean most people do believe that these things were there and that iris ok let's let's let's move forward to the end of this year brandon i'd like to go to you here do you see that there are elements of that within the pentagon and maybe even the white house and in baghdad that would use the excuse of possible tension between arabs and kurds to maintain a an american presence a larger presence than what the americans agreed to a few years ago meaning we can't leave now because will be a civil war. i think it won't be an excuse i think there will be a strong request from the government of the kurdistan region together with some

responsible arab politicians in baghdad for there to be a continuing arab and sari a continuing american presence mediating between the arab majority army in the south and the forces of the kurdish peshmerga in the north and i think that that will be essential to ensure that there is a stable resolution of the disputed territories if there's an american in a responsible american departure without the issue of the disputed territories having been resolved then there's a high likelihood of renewed conflict even if those responsible leadership on each side because actions on the ground in particular the actions of sunni arab insurgents might destabilize matters so there's a real risk and it won't be an excuse the americans would be absolutely delighted to get completely out of iraq barack obama would be like it because it looked good for his election campaign so the idea that the americans are maneuvering in order to stay in iraq is simply misplaced there are so do things isley there is

a serious dispute ahead all right it's going to lash out and i am going to washington. i think i think the left the leaving of the americans and keeping some forces in there to to to halt to put a put a stop to a civil war will repeat the same scenario of u.s. troops remaining in korea up to this day there's no there's not going to be an end to it is. this bomb to explode this this disputed territories the article one hundred forty of the constitution having not been implemented the those territories have not been issues to the disagreements on those issues have not been resolved yet will only be delayed but not solved unless those. art this article is implemented those territories will be returned to people who own the ownership

their original claim of those things and these things have not been happening due to political disagreement in baghdad and the arabs do not want this because they already have gained territory that there is very very clear things that we know that are done during saddam's time that can be resolved for example that town of. two which is a major kurdish town has been detached from kirkuk and next to to create which is a majority of the in province which is a majority arab province these shiftings and claims that saddam did have created those issues that need to be resolved because if cook is returned to the nine hundred fifty eight demography of whatever. administrative unit of cook province at the time was things will change there will then be a majority arab in the province as it is now and therefore things will change if

either for around them is held in that article or a totally different and i'm going to sami sami what business what business does the united states and its allies have in mediating this conflict between the kurds or potential conflict when you put it that way between the kurds and the arabs in iraq i mean is it is time for the united states and its allies to get out and let the people on the ground figure out what is best for them because occupation. genders animosity we've seen that in iraq we've seen that in afghanistan we're seeing it possibly in libya. i think i had the nail on the head there most of iraq's problems today i'm an eighteen from the continued occupation of iraq and the sooner the us led forces leave the better with the tens of thousands of medicine arie's of blackwater and the like they brought with them they are the poison of in the middle of iraqi society and i think a lot of these problems can be resolved and i don't share the opinions of your

other two guests with due respect to them that there is this enormous animosity between the arab people of iraq and the kurdish people and let me add this at this particular moment declared my principle stand towards the kurdish people the kurdish people deserve the right to self-determination and this i believe in very very strongly this right to self dinner the nation cannot come under occupation it can only come within a democratic iraq where they care dish people will enjoy their right to self-determination this is something not even the kurdish leaders are daring to pronounce and to implement because that listening to washington that is throwing all their eggs into the putting all their eggs in the washington basket instead of building. good relations with the peoples of the region with the people of turkey people of iran people of iraq against oppressive regimes the future of the kurdish

people is with the peoples of the region you cannot move that the the mountains the great mountains of course at this time to washington the people of the region have to resolve their own problems without occupations of military interventions the united states is applying notice pressure on the iraqi government to maintain their forces by did made to visit american generals made statements u.s. defense secretary made a visit they are all trying to hide behind this week iraqi. regime tied to washington protected by washington they're trying to hide behind it and say ask us to stay on to say this is what's happening. there. in the last word this program here we've heard the term the arab spring is there such a thing as the kurds spring. there was a kind of there is no. there there is an arab

spring and it's a very welcome there has been already a kurdish spring there is no occupation of the kurdistan region there are no american american soldiers present there any american presence and they're not exactly thrilled by it because it's about a regional government there is there is corruption throughout our of iraq on a much greater scale than the kurdistan region i think what you've heard very sami unfortunately is old fashioned arab nationalists propaganda and what is vital to understand is that iraq has just gone through an absolutely terrific intra arab civil war that was not primarily caused by the american occupation it was cause i don't think this is just journalism in a very serious guys you know waste of time are many thanks to my guest today in new york in washington and london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember crosstalk.