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it's now at three thirty pm on monday here in. the headlines now. with might be heading to a new level as the chief points to the. system in europe. has become the focus. with russia in the city. meanwhile germany agrees to supply nato forces in libya with. increasing. but the country has criticism for deviating from its original position on intervention and speculation is. removed from. the very hearing.

before. facing genocide charges but refused to. discuss what the u.s. withdrawal from iraq might mean for the community and whether fears of separatism and ethnic clashes might persuade the americans to stay permanently. welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle as the u.s. starts its military withdrawal from iraq what does fate hold for the kurds his post invasion iraqi administratively and democratically strong enough to keep the country intact and if the kurds strive towards an independent state what is

stopping. you. to cross talk the fate of the kurds i'm joined by pressure was fed in washington he's an independent journalist in new york we cross to brendan o'leary he is the louder professor of political science at the university of pennsylvania and his most recent book is how to get out of iraq with the integrity and in london we have sami ramadani he's a senior lecturer in sociology at london metropolitan university all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first let's take a look at a report about the future facing the kurds following the u.s. withdrawal from iraq. eight years after the u.s. led invasion of iraq washington is negotiating its withdrawal from this war torn country is forty six thousand u.s. troops prepare to leave iraq it's two tural integrity and fragile democracy are

threatened by the brewing animosity between arabs and kurds a factor that has made questionable the plan of a complete pullout i believe that we should take whatever steps are necessary to make sure that we protect whatever progress we have made bear. largely marginalized by iraqi arabs the kurdish minority has long since been vying for a form of independence which given the sweep of the arab spring could now be more possible than ever and if established kurdish state who could potentially entailed the breakup of iraq as well as changing the border of neighboring syria turkey and iran all home to significant kurdish minorities no other place in iraq symbolizes the tensions separating baghdad and kurdish leaders more than the province of kirk a source of some twenty percent of iraq's oil reserves has no official legal status iraqi arabs turkmens and kurds who claims to it under article one forty of the iraqi constitution the dispute over is supposed to be resolved with a referendum we saw no reason why there should be any more.

implementation of article one for three. i think when that happens. other nationalities living in those areas would have a better chance of having a better security in those areas too because now it's like a gray area no one has full responsibility of doing what is best for the people however the vote has been continuously delayed due to political discord and violence in the region and to date neither arab nor kurdish leaders have been willing to yield their rights to the land currently and entire he was division is deployed to enforce security in the disputed region and come december thirty first the. u.s. withdrawal could trigger a bloody conflict. in terms of security when the us leaves there will be no independent security force right now the security is from the kurdish side of the city this is the truth when the us leaves things will get worse there will be

conflict arabs will stand up and pray to. god and this will. both wars will begin between the ethnic groups. thank you very much whether or not washington decides to leave behind a contingent of u.s. troops in iraq the kurds have a historic opportunity in their trials towards some term and nothing in their history suggests that they will be deterred from pursuing a bid for statehood. for crosstalk. ok officials and washington if i can go to you first here as we discerned that report given the circumstances of the withdrawal of the american withdrawal from iraq and what we call the arab spring here what is stopping the kurds from really going for an independent state something that they have strived for for a very long time now and the circumstances to do that are probably better now than ever before what's stopping them. thank you for giving the opportunity to be

under show i think there are an array of reasons that stops the kurds from declaring an independent states economic and political geopolitical and and there's not there's not one single reason that says this is the one trees and i think the invasion has helped the kurds have a better. foot step in the political spectrum of the middle east however it hasn't evolved into something that could be the seeds of a state and let's not forget that. the home inside of the kurdistan region is not yet suitable and ready for a statehood there is aspiration there is hope that is and work towards that. of the political pragmatists the leaders know that. declaring

a state right now is not the ultimate. solution to the case that's why they clinching to baghdad that's why they're. the most active negotiators in settling issues that are. infesting baghdad in terms of political process and government formation and security so the kurds for now are considering themselves part of iraq but not for long i mean let's let's speak up to the withdrawal of the of the u.s. forces when and if i can go to you i mean there's a nice saying the appetite comes with the eating and once the americans do leave to what degree i mean they're keeping something on the ground most likely irrespective what people white house says or the pentagon says but i mean there's a historic moment right here and we all know that the iraqis in political deadlock right now the kurds are kingmakers and if this goes on for much longer the kurds will say you know go ahead guys i mean you figured out we've got oil we have we

have unity for the most part in and the lands of the kurds i mean they have a lot of cards to play right now and i'd like to throw in they the arab spring in the background about self-determination and and creating a better civil society they could they have a lot going for them go ahead. the kurdistan regional government is a very secure region it's the best organized part of iraq and it's very important to understand that the kurdish leadership is not planning a bid for independence even if it gets excellent opportunities and that's because kurds know historically that if they seek independence that would invite the negative intervention of the neighboring powers in particular turkey and iran by contrast at this moment the kurds have the ability to reshape iraq they more or less designed its constitution in conjunction with its partners so they have every opportunity to make their influence felt indeed with the departure of the americans

they will be the only part of iraq that is reliably pro-american so i would expect them to use their leverage to ensure that there will be american troops patrolling the disputed territories they'll be working hard to ensure that their recent successful detente with the government of turkey continues and they continue to attract inward investment if the kurds were to take the risk of going for independence that might damage all of the successful inward investment they've made it would also mean that they'd have to devote almost the entirety of their resources to military needs and there they don't want to do that they've come a long way in the last decade they don't want to lose the gains of that last decade sammy if i can go to you we heard the word leverage and i think that's probably the most important word when we look at the withdrawal of american troops i mean how much can the kurds get from baghdad ok i mean we they were everyone's watching each other across the the the the so-called border where the kurds the kurdish lands been relatively quiet could sit considering the violence since two thousand and

three what can they get from baghdad and how resistance is bad baghdad going to be and when giving anything. when you say baghdad i mean the racket president to scare . representatives of the two leading care dish. governing parties leading pows including the foreign minister and so on so they have pretty substantial influence and baghdad and generally iraqi policies the major ones have been decided with the consent or support of the kurdish leadership over the past three or tic union of kurdistan and the k d p the kurdistan democratic party. at this point i would like to take issue with one or two of the premises both in the introduction and maybe implicitly in what brendan are saying as if there is a kind of a new more city or

a big historical clash between the kurdish people and the arab people i think this is a myth we've had that oppressive regimes like saddam's regime attacking the care dish people but there hasn't been this historic people against people who tensions or or quarters or fights historically in iraq in fact very people a very few people seem to know that there are about ten million kurdish people in baghdad the capital this is more than more cares than cares and the kurdish area that is that is to. say i think i think you it is known some of the no no it is not nonsense to me because the kurdish people live where they care to pull advice and the cards i know i know you would like you would like to divide the iraqi people like you're attempting just now but if you let me finish a lot of care of these people are entitled met it with arabs with total commands and so on and there isn't this rigid ethnic demarcation like you might want to

pretend brandon historically the kurdish an arab people. how of a common interests joint struggles against. all right for democracy for freedom so so you have to same time to look at this sammy but the same time in the aspirations of the kurds have been always slowed down if not punished when they do have aspirations brendan you want to reply to that go ahead i certainly do i think it's it is true that kurds and arabs contain large numbers of people willing to make iraq work as a federation but it is absolute nonsense to deny the historical animosities between arabs and kurds and to deny that successive arab regimes carried out genocide ethnic expulsion and coercive assimilation against large denied hours of. the recent south. past i know you must not think that i'd actually

i let you speak i'd like you to get i'd like you to give me the opportunity to start i dismiss the kurds. i'm not distorting what you said i listened carefully. people i think that sat down to really care that there was a large let me finish with you that we let me finish please people think wrongly that there's a large kurdish population in baghdad there used to be the faily kurds were expelled from baghdad by saddam's regime if we look at a vote now kurdish parties in and in federal elections it is a minuscule vote surprising i'm afraid i'm going to interrupt you will let you finish and we come back from the break in this after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the current state with our team.

spending the year in iraq is not a true journalist i saw some of the waste go in the u.s. contractors there's kind of wasting their time trying to get killed. i thought all along the length of the leave about five hundred miles. it would take me about twenty seven days in new going to publicize the invite the more i think the pope leads the people started the base of the dialogue the just. chanting the slogan or waving the sun it seems that it's. a little. please. little. little.

little. the taken against st. clement. pledge. welcome back to rostock i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the fate of the kurds as the u.s. plans its withdrawal from iraq the application a. legal end. ok brennan that you know i'd like you to finish up what you were saying before the break i mean there has been historically a lot of animosity i'd like you know what degree or another we can discuss in this program go right ahead. well what i think is important is to look forward and there are two core difficulties in relations between arabs and kurds as we go forward the

first is that many arab politicians in baghdad wish to recentre lies iraq in particular the control over natural resources and that's in flat contradiction with the constitution of iraq of two thousand and five which was deliberately designed to ensure that each part of iraq arab provinces as well as kurdish majority areas could govern themselves and develop themselves if that program of the constitution is implemented i think all of the historical animosities between kurds and arabs can be calm and the second difficulty arises as as was indicated in your program in the areas of the disputed territories those territories are disputed precisely because of past programs of ethnic expulsion carried out largely by saddam's regime but also by previous arab governments not everything done bad by arabs historically was done by saddam or those who were involved as well so the key thing that international policymakers and domestic iraqi citizens have to be focused on is how to ensure those two particular disputes over natural resources and over the

disputed territories don't generate further conflict between kurds and arabs i think that can. be done is to or is to follow the constitution jump in the way developments is one engine is not only to not only not only to implement article one forty but to encourage proper power sharing arrangements with encourage governorate sharing arrangements that would include an arabs birds renderer i mean come on the question all share power in this particular area all right sami real quick and then we're going to washington go ahead sure sure i think trend brendan again is pledging this caddish animosity better is no animosity between the kaddish and out of peoples that we've had that oppressive regimes specialists i don't stand by the way let you have brendan this regime killed more arabs than cared for. information and the nine hundred ninety one uprising in the chemical weapons and so on he's killed more arabs than care so to pretend that this was an arab book

government just killing kurds as absolutely historically in court act applies to all is a sitting president president of the government some was the law of return was denied us a reason was designed i don't know that i. mean here let me just say here let's go to washington go ahead throw in your two cents you're going to be very patient a lot. i think i think it's not over inflated to mention the animosity among kurds and arabs and has occurred as i have lived in kurdistan during the invasion i have covered the invasion i have sensed those things myself that is a historical. even if you don't want to call it only my city disagreement at this liking. at least from the kurds to us the arabs and of course it's shared by the arabs in a great deal. but they both know the kurds and the arabs both know that they are

forced to live in iraq the arabs claim that iraq is their. member of the arab league the kurds believe every individual of them believe that they are forced to be a part of that country and that has created any must be and it's very naive and simple to assume that just because regime like saddam's regime or any previous regimes have have have. caused destruction and killing of the kurds does not in the minds of the public. give. does not release the general arab population of iraq from those acts to people do not think that those regimes were. abstract entities that came from the sky and did those i mean most people do believe. that iris ok let's let's let's move forward to

the end of this year brandon and i to go to you here do you see that there are elements of that within the pentagon and maybe even the white house and in baghdad that would use the excuse of possible tension between arabs and kurds to maintain a an american presence a larger presence than what the americans agreed to a few years ago i mean we can't leave now because will be a civil war. i think it won't be an excuse i think there will be a strong request from the government of the kurdistan region together with some responsible arab politicians in baghdad for there to be a continuing arab and sari a continuing american presence mediating between the arab majority army in the south and the forces of the kurdish peshmerga in the north and i think that that will be essential to ensure that there's a stable resolution of the disputed territories if there's an american in a responsible american departure without the issue of the disputed territories having been resolved then there's

a high likelihood of renewed conflict even if those responsible leadership on each side because actions on the ground in particular the actions of sunni arab insurgents might destabilize matters so there's a real risk and it won't be an excuse the americans would be absolutely delighted to get completely out of iraq but barack obama would be like it because it will look good for his election campaign so the idea that the americans are maneuvering in order to stay in iraq is simply misplaced our so do you think honestly there is a serious dispute ahead all right it's a little larger than the irish afraid to go to washington. i think i think the left the leaving of the americans and keeping some forces in there to to to halt to put a put a stop to a civil war will not repeat the same scenario of u.s. troops remaining in korea up to this day there's no there's not going to be an end

to this. at this bomb to explode this this disputed territories the article one hundred forty of the constitution having not been implemented the those territories have not the issues to the disagreements on those issues have not been resolved yet will only be delayed but not solved unless those. art this article is implemented those territories will be returned to people who own the the ownership their original claim of those things and these things have not been happening due to political disagreement in baghdad and the arabs do not want this because they already have gained territory that there are very very clear things that we know that are done during saddam's time that can be resolved for example that town of. two which is a major kurdish town has been detached from kirkuk and next to to create which is

a majority of the in province which is a majority arab province these these shiftings and planes that saddam did have created those issues that need to be resolved because if cook is a. when i we do apologize for interrupting crosstalk right here on our to cross live to sochi where president i hear that has taken the floor to address the russia nato summit let's open it. up. just. to see it must feel good to talk learmonth. of measuring emotion which. is. so. they signal if. you really have. been told this and then you saw your.

recent russian nato council session i was quite successful. i hope with major progress on our agenda. he. was. obviously. this is a unique opportunity. that i was opened up to us by the lisbon summit. last november. the decisions made at that summit. we consider quite positive. since chris's disorder of decisions that could be used to build up a strategic partnership. based on end a visible security of trust transparency but it's predictability.

this is. generally good for global security and. it is an answer to the hopes and interests of the people who live in the countries where representing. more with summits and less bond approved a new strategic concept for nato. which focuses on developing partnerships where the other states and organizations across the world. we believe this to be very important so it will allow us to create a more willoughby's up with a stronger and more secure world order. we just discussed presence zuma took part in the discussion of the libyan problem which is somewhat complicated this is an example of what i see as look at

the moment as a situation that we can. make collectively efforts to improve. you but of course the blue chips will salute to discuss as partners the most difficult so the issues and find ways out of difficult situations and you know it's beautiful mr secretary general. if you could say a few words place. with the president misread as you go. see it but it was to show you this. because it is most of the question mr putin is the one who would also be valid. to us. i also wish through to thank you for your personal commitment to nato russia cooperation with your support we created the spirit of lisbon when we met at summit level of last november we agreed on the importance of

a strong nato russia partnership we agreed that the nato russia counter would be the place to discuss all issues. at all times and we have great not to relate the disagreements that we do have stand in the hallway. in your presence instructed today is another important signal of your commitment. and will you will continue and support i'm confident that our discussions this afternoon will help strengthen our cooperation. and in the spirit of lisbon i expect them to be frank fruitful and friendly. nato and russia face many of the same security challenges we are working to defeat terrorism on land at sea and in the area we are fighting piracy side by side we are investing

in efforts to step allies afghanistan and counter that deadly drop straight and since we face the same threats cooperation between us is the only choice that makes sense it is the best prize toll it's a strategic partnership and we must press forward on this process. our meeting with allow us to review how far we have come between lisbon and such and deep wouldn't give us the momentum to move further forward because i believe they stated much more what we can do especially in the area of ms and defense we know that at least thirty countries around the world have all are trying to acquire out missile technology so we need to develop our defenses miss.