arrangement three. three stooges three. three brokers video store your media projects street medio don carty dot com. three thirty pm in moscow these here are the headlines a million people did take to cairo's tahrir square later on friday and protests over egypt's transitional government many feel it's not delivering on the promises of democracy from february's uprising. horizon's prime minister promising a full inquiry into the phone hacking scandal that's brought down the country's best selling newspapers police have arrested his former press a postman and the polls and he was the news of the world editor when it's alleged with intercepted phone calls from murder victims and dead soldiers found. israel on

high alert as pro palestinian activists want their gaza aid flotilla for a flight ala turning to air travel after their ships are held in greece hundreds have been walk hated from boarding planes in europe on their way to tell of. after decades of wars and bloodshed southern sudan is preparing to break free and go it alone peter lavelle's a guest discuss now whether it's already running the risk of failure before it even fries its first flag of independence across stuff coming your way. live. in.

a low and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle after decades of conflict in war south sudan is said to become an independent state on july ninth as the world anticipates this event there are lingering questions surrounding the viability of this new oil rich country has south sudan failed even before it's established. cross-talk the future of south sudan i'm joined by my guest in washington jonathan clements he's the director of the sudan program at the united states institute of peace john campbell he's the ralph bunche senior fellow for african policy studies at the council on foreign relations and need a quitter he is an african political analyst haro gentlemen this is cross talk that means prosthetic was in effect and you can jump in anytime you want need i'd like to go to you first in washington and looking at the future of south sudan and will have its independence in

a few hours is it mission impossible or is it already mission failed. oh it's neither of those those i don't think of the process possible outcomes of course everything is in the air it depends on what happens more than it because on what important act is do they lead a ship in silence and down the people and government of not want to become known in sudan the people of southern sudan the international community and of cause they need real for countries so there are a lot of factors i actually think the future and so on in sudan while while it is not a problem free is is much more positive than and seen in the media they have a number of important assets go in for them but a lot of their reporting has been on the difficulties which is right but we mustn't forget that the important things go in for them international goodwill they have a lot of war you know their land is small fair trial done their known and people

most important go for if you look at the referendum the people voted this is something that people really want and where there is a will there is there is a whig ok mr ambassador john campbell if i go to you i'll repeat my question is that mission impossible mission failed already because as we already heard there's a lot of ifs out there and i'd like to point out this is seems to be a very important foreign policy objective of the united states a lot of money has been poured into this endeavor what are your thoughts on. it is certainly not mission impossible but it is however a challenging mission. a number of the very important issues between south sudan and sudan and the khartoum government still need to be worked through three example only about eighty percent of the border has been delineated then there is the question of how the oil revenue is going to be shared what

arrangements they're going to be for export in the oil most of which goes out through port sudan which is in the north and then there is the nationality question what do you do about people from the south who live in the north and vice versa these are important issues left over from the comprehensive peace agreement that have not yet been resolved and then there is the question of the south sudan's own institutional development one of the things we have seen is that in countries which have enormous amounts of oil there are is heavy institutional stress how in other words do you make best use of the oil revenue and prevent it from essential going into the pockets of a few corrupt individuals ok i don't really know not to bring in jonathan here i mean we've heard a lot it looks like this is a new state built on a lot of hope is that is that. a point to much cold water on the future of this

country. it is built on a lot of hope ninety eight percent or more of south sudanese voted to secede and that was a legitimate ninety eight percent that's almost unanimous which is really a remarkable thing it will be a state boring week but i don't think it will be a state war and failed i think that's unfair to the south sudanese but the challenge is that a massacre or campbell talks about are real and i will add one more which is that there are real ethnic divides within the south and there are perceptions that the southern government and the southern leadership are dominated by a few ethnic groups and that's something that people will have to deal with early on that kind of ethnic division has been very problematic in other parts of africa and i go to you i mean when in helping them develop its institutions it looks like the military and security get a lion's share of foreign aid the united states state department is one hundred

million dollars a year at the expense of everything else infrastructure wise and we're talking about one of the poorest places on the planet is that a wise move. well i think it's. it's an understandable move to begin with i mean you know things that my michael guess and i all in washington and so we have our fingers now on how sudan policy gets me and i think people have been rightly worried about the war in their domain eighteen. not only in sudan and we're in frog the last few days president bashir has made a lot of very worrying statements and there is a war on the border and i would be and in southern kordofan so yes you have to look at this if you're if you are everything that has been said i agree totally with because of the especially the challenges of oil and ethnicity we have to help the sudan southern sudanese the u.s. and others who care have to help them to build institutions and incidentally i

think if you stress democracy you will have wide world people wrongly called the oil case it is not their kids what is necessary is once you have oil you are to build strong institutions to do with the oil the united states is well endowed with oil it doesn't corrupt their their country as much as people assume for other places so i do think that yes the focus on military and security may seem skewed but that is their fair stead now the hard work begins there and once started it comes and the country. independent the bush would not say everything is done and boom particularly people like me octave east and people in the united states who do put pressure on what the u.s. ought to do we have our work cut out for us to pressure the u.s. government to build the under our institutions i think i share that concern in your question that you shouldn't be against military only well let's talk about the

military here if i go to the ambassador human rights watch and amnesty international are very concerned about the funding of the military in the south because they know. soldiers have been responsible for great human rights abuses including unlawful killings of civilians and looting and destruction of civilian property i mean again i mean is this such a is this a good time for independence if you have you have militias and security forces that are not very disciplined to be polite the security situation is extraordinarily difficult. it's very easy in the euphoria leading up to the end to end dependence today it's very easy to simply put aside the fact that there is active fighting going on and i would be in south kordofan there there are claims by various ethnic groups of. north north sudan essentially trying to destroy them as independent entities in other

words south sudan has to have at this stage a robust security establishment all of that said it is perfectly true that in south sudan as elsewhere in africa the behavior and the training of the military is not necessarily what we would like it also makes the training of military all the more important and it's interesting jonathan if i go you i mean it's an interesting mix here i mean the united states has been spending enormous money amount of money on the security situation there and as it was pointed out in this program there's a heck of a lot of oil there i think there's an estimated six billion barrels of oil on the ground underground i mean so you have a very large security force in a lot of oil that it could make speakers why wouldn't security forces be more interested in revenues. well it's important to keep in mind that the southern army of the sudan people's liberation army is the largest employer in south sudan by far

this is going to be a kind tree with very little employment opportunity now the s.p.l. a is too large everybody recognizes that and there are a lot of soldiers in there who should probably be demobilized but it's very difficult for the southern government to do that because there are few alternatives in terms of employment for any demobilized soldiers and there's a chance that any demobilize soldier is my revolt or join some of the current rebellions in the south so that's really a sensitive issue for the southern leadership i think the south is actually rather unified around their oil and they're certainly unified around keeping as much of the oil and keeping as much of their profits as they can but there is certainly speculation about corruption in the oil sector and speculation that the army has been involved in that i mean if i go to you you see a possible future for south sudan light maybe like nigeria because of the oil.

i think. number one i hope not number two i don't really think it because i think of cause they'll be old by large they'll be they'll be singing larry it is but i think for me the differences will be essential because if nothing else we have the example of nigeria to to to look out and to try to avoid the things that got them in trouble and so i am i not emphasize again i think the good news making sure that we build democratic institutions the challenges that michael tonally is of nation are all correct in the give them the right emphasis garbs they don't mean ones of the army and their dominance of the s.p.l. and the ethnic issues but i think we do have the example of other problem areas in africa the silence of the nice people in the government how congo large by the do need international help in international assistance and our minds also are about i'm on the hopeful side and not not in an i in sense because you know we are in

washington washington yes celebrate the good life for over two hundred years of the engagement is if you cast your mind by it looked like a very impossible mission when when those patrons declare independence and so when people feel strongly about it they can take on the challenges i do think we might find time to talk about the rule of khartoum and president bashir here because with all of the internal challenges on the in sudan i do think are you with us i was actually as we as we are after we return from a break after the break we'll continue our discussion once again state the. state.

the close up game is speed to the republic of north ascension where the area is occupied by nature preserve. this time our team goes to the region where men flock from all over the world to add a few centimeters to their self-confidence where young families are not hesitant about having a senior citizen in their family and where one man's utopia turns into a real damage of the shining sun welcome to gun week. russia closing on our cheap. wealthy british science.

market finally. come to find out what's really happening to the global economy with max concert for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune into a report on our g. q. welcome and your calls talking fueled i'll remind you we're talking about the birth of another sudan. q. ok mr mesereau like to go to you know when it was mentioned right before i went to the break what about the north north sudan as it will be and their attitude towards the new country to the south can they make or break the possibility of a sovereign state a state that can actually take care of itself with all that oil by the way but

nonetheless what cards they play to make or break the new country. well. they certainly have the potential if for example you have full scale warfare breaking out between south sudan and sudan and the north the emergence of south sudan will become infinitely more complicated i note that according to the press this morning by sheer will being in juba for the independence day celebrations i hope that is correct because ever since the comprehensive peace agreements were signed the north has dragged its feet. on the process pressure himself openly and publicly accepts the end dependence of south sudan but bashir has an opposition he has an opposition in khartoum and there are others in khartoum who are not happy at all about south

sudan becoming independent not least because of the order there is a kind of mantra that you can sometimes hear in khartoum to the effect of that the sheer has lost south sudan bashir has failed to end the crisis in four and bashir is approach to the opposition in khartoum. is repressive so bashir is not a totally independent actor and or this ok jonathan what do you think about that i mean when that when your seize all this oil and i could point out i mean right now the oil does go through the north for exports so i mean there is some kind of interdependence already built into this relationship be irrespective of attitudes political attitudes about the dependence of the new state. and this is why the oil is actually a positive factor in terms of north-south relations in some ways because there is such mutual dependence between the north in the south in order for both of them to

get their oil revenue the south gets about ninety eight percent of its revenue from oil almost all of their revenue comes from oil the north the numbers are a little fuzzy but probably something in the neighborhood of sixty percent of their revenue comes from oil they both need it they can't afford to live without it despite some of the heated rhetoric that we're seeing and so the fact that almost all the oil about eighty percent of it comes out of the ground in the south but then goes through pipelines in the north and refineries in the north means that they have to work out a deal on oil they can't afford to do anything else and so i think there will be a deal on oil probably not by saturday july ninth but they have agreed to keep talking and i think that mutual dependence does act as a brake on a return to a full scale civil war which i don't think is likely i do think it's likely that we're going to see some of this violence around the north-south border for some time to. go ahead you want to jump in there. yes i want to i think the

ambassador is very right i mean john thing is right about the ambassador made the point of president bashir in the north not be our new independent and i think that is totally true you shared flight on the friday he had been see he's supposed the. decision of the south to brick a we sent to see it but then he was soon beginning last week and since he came back he's been very beleaguered what i want to say is another far northern. china china's relationship by sheer we can also bring in their rule of the united states i mean we all know president obama. wants an africa and he has to an interest in africa from two of those machines and. this is obama was us in south africa so i hope that behind the scenes president obama is talking to the h.i.i. means because there have an important influence on.

sudan since specially the north because the our land is pardoned by companies from three countries the major one being a chinese company and it is an audience so to china and order by sheehan's arms comes from china so i hope the u.s. is talking to china so that the constructive role because jonathan too is right the are. dealt with properly can reduce the friction between the two countries because like you said yes they both need is no income via of course if you factor in a single mr ambassador i'm going to you know i did during celebrations on saturday . in the new country there's going to be a lot of dignitaries there i think colin powell is going to be there the current u.s. u.s. representative the united nations susan rice is going to be there and a lot of other dignitaries is it all about oil i mean if it were any other if there were no oil there do you think a lot of dignitaries would be showing up. yes yes i think there would be

a lot of dignitaries showing up because yes oil is important but what is also important is that this marks the air and. a conflict which has gone on for almost a generation. i mean the warfare between between the north and the south has nor are africa for for more than twenty years i'm going to take this opportunity though to jump in with respect to the mutual dependence of the south and the north on each other and with a particular focus on oil it's perfectly true yes indeed they're mutually dependent the question becomes whether the leadership of the two and here i would particularly focus or encourage you know whether the leadership of the two recognize that fact and are willing to take that reality into account as they

develop their policies that's what we're going to have to watch over the over the next several weeks. to share concern about the belligerence of comments that the sheer has been making over over the past week or so i will be watching with a great deal of interest about what he actually says on independence day and the day after what you think about jonathan the meaning if there if we have so secure is a lot of people make them i think he is i mean he can have a lot of trouble he's going to have to start saying the right things irrespective if it's against his own country's best interest as we've been talking about this interdependence i mean if the going gets any money if the pope oil isn't pumped out of the country so i mean what kind of what kind of variables is he could have to deal with to get to maintain his power base that is still accept that a new country has come into being. well when we talk about him saying the right

things it depends what audience he's talking to and the right things for the international audience can be very different than the right things for the domestic northern sudanese audience the message that president bush here in the n.c.p. leadership are trying to send right now within the north is that we are in control and that there aren't going to be any more breakaways like what we're seeing in southern sudan and this i think explains to some extent the violence that we're currently seeing in southern kordofan state and the efforts to disarm some troops in southern kordofan state in the north who are aligned with the south and that of course has been a rather violent process to go back to oil as well i think it's important not to overemphasize the importance of oil in sudan it's a medium level producer about four hundred ninety thousand barrels a day but it doesn't make it a big x. ray global producer and for the u.s. oil is actually not that important because the u.s.

doesn't consume any sudanese oil because of the sanctions that the u.s. has on sudan so this has as much to do with the history and bloodshed that ambassador campbell was talking about as the oil it's not just an oil story i mean if i go to you when you know what kind of precedent is being said here could we see even regions within south sudan start breaking apart or even the north seeing seeing the state of the north start collapsing you when you see bashir with every move he makes one way or another it could destabilize the north as well we've been focusing a lot on the south what about the north yes that is absolutely true and it's a free air i have i hope it doesn't happen i mean the ambassador was right there was on for a long time but i would think if you've been further you know i'm from don i'm going to begin to bring in one nine hundred fifty seven so down i'd really became independent. and the tensions. are actually you can see it's. and sold it in one thousand nine hundred fifty six so

the coffee has actually been there for more than fifty years so this is the brick of the south and the and then ninety eight percent for the referendum to me tells me that this was a special case and that i hope it hasn't spread to other plants or sued sudan not only in sudan trying to break up i mean there's even some talk among some of the other had made groups that well in southern sudan i don't want to put too much of a fine point on it back people always talk about breaking away i think we should be the i said cian rather than the rule and i hope it doesn't happen in other parts of sudan by beyond who it depends on how the government governs the country if people feel that the wishes and grievances are teeth into our count india listen to even if the problems are known solved it will still be which. allows as in the short time left to give some thought to places like darfur and of cause there sanctions

the u.s. as it is not only in sudan was mentioned but again i think washington if it is creative this special envoy ambassador lyman it is creative those pressure points can actually be used not just on by sheer but also on the oprah zushi and also rebels in other areas like darfur to mention that there are no more because i think i said general rule i don't like to see brick arms in africa for that matter it benefits political ambitions political people more than the ordinary citizens but in the case of silence and i think it's the assertion that proves the rule ok jonathan i'm going to give you the last word the program what is the future of south sudan in thirty seconds. i think the biggest challenge in south sudan is for the south sudanese to define themselves and to define what it means to

be south sudanese for a long time what has held southerners together is getting to this referendum getting to this end dependence and also the common enemy that they see in the north it's now time to get beyond that and to define what it means to be a member of this very new brand new country of south sudan ok that's a very good point in the program are many thanks to my guest today in washington thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember the last time. taken. three couldn't take three. three. three.

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